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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the whic
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the which’ll happen first betting market
This Betfair exchange market is one of of my current favourites because it combines what is overwhelmingly the big UK political issue for many years, Brexit, with the future of TMay.
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When do we learn which amendments His Ever So Humbleness has selected?
Mr. Slackbladder, very unfair on Canute, who was a rather more decisive leader.
Dominic Grieve has been spamming MPs with a letter trying to convince them to back his amendment (g) tomorrow.
https://order-order.com/2019/01/28/dominic-grieves-slippery-letter-mps/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhNczOuhxeg
Trying to get my head round the various amendments on offer this week.
The fundamentals haven't changed - we either agree the WA or we leave without a Deal on 29/3. I'm assuming May won't unilaterally revoke A50 because that would be political and electoral suicide.
The aim of Brady seems to be to say the EU "we won't agree to this WA but this is a WA we can agree to all you have to do is agree our changes". It might work but there's an assumption the EU is going to blink to avoid No Deal and there's little evidence of that at this time.
Cooper/Boles seems to be about forcing May to extend A50 rather than leaving without a Deal on 29/3. Perhaps but the EU needs to back any extension and it shows little sign of doing so under these circumstances - I could imagine were the WA set to pass and a few extra days needed to tidy up the legislative process that would be granted.
In effect, neither amendment is of much help - we are still back with either agreeing the already-rejected WA or leaving on 29/3 without a Deal and doing what can be done in the next 60 days to minimise or mitigate disruption.
https://news.sky.com/story/no-deal-brexit-would-leave-shelves-empty-british-retail-consortium-warns-11620380
The only thing I can think of is that the foot traffic just isn't there. Perhaps, those looking for deli services prefer Waitrose and the majority of Tesco's customers just don't want to choose their olives.
I honestly think they are in a bit of a bind and don't really know what to do. They are getting squeezed from the bottom and the high end is just so so much better.
Their rapid expansive in the 90s / 00s was based on the fact nobody could compete with them on price and while they had you in the store they could flog you all the other stuff. And their online retailer business to compete with Amazon was recently shut down, as it never seemed to take off.
Had Labour had a pro-EU leader over the last couple of months then I think Brexit would be dead.
The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.
And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.
How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.
Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.
People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
Deal not to pass Commons by 29 March: 77%
No Deal on 29 March: 14%
Referendum this year: 27%
So now 36% implied probability of an extension without a deal having passed the Commons and without a referendum.
JRM succeeding where Hugh Fearnley Wittingstall and Jamie Oliver have failed ?
Bercow doesn't care about being seen to be fair. I'd be staggered if the Cooper amendment weren't selected.
JRM just spoken on Sky after meeting TM seems reasonably on board with a legal codicil to the WDA
Looks as if splits in the ERG are emerging
If it turns out the government isn't backing it and the ERG isn't backing it and neither are the opposition, he would be within his rights to drop it.
Do splits really matter though? It needs to be almost all to pass, and there's near no chance of that.
Much the same as it's been for a while: it's down to whether Labour will let a WA go through, or risk no-deal.
Authorities in the United Arab Emirates have been ridiculed after it emerged that all of the winners of an initiative designed to foster gender equality in the workplace were men.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jan/28/uae-mocked-for-gender-equality-awards-won-entirely-by-men
Also there are rumours in Ireland that the EUs solution in the event of No Deal is to have no checks on the Ireland/NI border but instead have them on the Ireland/EU border eg at Calais Rotterdam etc.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2019/01/28/man-city-agree-1129m-fee-schalke-rabbi-matondo-another-british/
Bundesliga is going to have more British players than the EPL at this rate.
It's not a scenario i want, but bring it on. If thats what they insist, thats what they insist.
Revocation? Referendum? Renegotiation?
they're clearly already there.
Consequently their fallback position is to check goods coming into the EU from the UK and Ireland in the same way - both for tariffs and compliance with standards.
The EU are not keen to publicise their position because it undermines their negotiating position of course, which is to weaponise the Irish border issue.
https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1089879657871278082
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3804663/Arthur-Scargill-hypocrite-Militant-leader-miners-shamelessly-uses-Thatcher-s-right-buy-law-snap-2million-flat-half-price.html
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1089819354290704385
I think that's right.