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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ERG, the new Militant tendency?

Last year I called Jeremy Corbyn the new Maggie.  I don’t suppose that will be appearing on the side of a Labour election battle bus any time soon. A pity.  The Twitterstorm that would have followed would have been such fun. So let’s see if I can be even more provoking this year.

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bigjohnowls

1st like Corbyn at GE2019

OldKingCole

First. Or am I just a skim-reader?

MarqueeMark

First. (But then, I haven't read the header!)

EDIT: turd......

bigjohnowls

MarqueeMark said:

First. (But then, I haven't read the header!)

OR THE OTHER 2 POSTS

david_herdson

Off topic, but great twitter reporting here on the Onasanya sentencing:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090233457215787014

HYUFD

If the ERG vote down Brady having voted down the Deal and Cooper and Grieve pass they will have opened the way to BINO which would be more likely than No Deal

bigjohnowls

OldKingCole said:

First. Or am I just a skim-reader?

The latter

TheScreamingEagles

Really great piece Cyclefree.

HYUFD

bigjohnowls said:

1st like Corbyn at GE2019

What about a Corbyn v Rees-Mogg general election, Militant Tendency v ERG, Alien v Predator?

TheScreamingEagles

oooh

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090234053008199680

tlg86

Delete

OldKingCole

bigjohnowls said:

MarqueeMark said:

First. (But then, I haven't read the header!)

OR THE OTHER 2 POSTS

Well Mr O is definitely first at !.00, whereas Mr M and I are 1.01

Tissue_Price

https://twitter.com/AaronBell80/status/1090234200312217600

TGOHF

No Peterborough b/e ....

Pulpstar

Lol, bleeding heart judge alert.

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

No Peterborough b/e ....

Called it on the last thread.

Danny565

TGOHF said:

No Peterborough b/e ....

Not automatically, but there could be if people sign a petition, right?

TheScreamingEagles

Danny565 said:

TGOHF said:

No Peterborough b/e ....

Not automatically, but there could be if people sign a petition, right?

Yah a recall petition.

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

No Peterborough b/e ....

Called it on the last thread.

Poor old Huhne - victim of racist discrimination - for being white.

Pulpstar

Jesus H Christ

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090234769340841986

Sean_F

If she gets a suspended sentence, she'll still have to stand down if it's 12 months or more.

Xenon

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/AaronBell80/status/1090234200312217600

The serious offence of being a white man.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1090234602386530305

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235180747550721

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

Lol, bleeding heart judge alert.

From Cambridge, natch

david_herdson

Sean_F said:

If she gets a suspended sentence, she'll still have to stand down if it's 12 months or more.

"Have to stand down" is a polite way of putting it.

Pulpstar

Oh my lord

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235461895897088

TGOHF

Epic timing - the narrative of a ruling elite hardly being smashed ...

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1090235242982576128

NeilVW

I wonder if Mrs May bothers to remind her Cabinet any more that they shouldn’t be leaking like sieves. Must be a bit awks if she brings it up.

Anorak

Pulpstar said:

Oh my lord

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235461895897088

This is the person who threatened a journo with a beating, right?

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235606733676544

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

Oh my lord

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235461895897088

Completely and utterly out of touch.

Sean_F

Pulpstar said:

Oh my lord

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235461895897088

"I am therefore giving you a conditional discharge, so that you may go forth under God's righteous Sun."

Endillion

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

TGOHF said:

No Peterborough b/e ....

Not automatically, but there could be if people sign a petition, right?

Yah a recall petition.

I do look forward to the debate around whether anyone who signs that is sexist and/or racist.

tlg86

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235888255332352

But not your constituents.

Nigel_Foremain

Nice to hear the voice of Jon Coles on that clip

david_herdson

On topic, very good article.

Pulpstar

If Labour have any sense they'll be pushing the recall petition along with the Tories.

tlg86

Suspended sentence!

Sean_F

TGOHF said:

Epic timing - the narrative of a ruling elite hardly being smashed ...

Let's just say, if it were you or I, or any other average voter, we'd be heading to prison PDQ.

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090236134205124608

TheScreamingEagles

She's got a suspended sentence.

oxfordsimon

FFS she needs to be sent down

Stereotomy

TheScreamingEagles said:

She's got a suspended sentence.

And Twitter ain't happy.

HYUFD

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235606733676544

Well that is 1 Tory gain at the next general election then

TheScreamingEagles

I think the AG will refer this sentence for review.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1090236441521729536

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

She's got a suspended sentence.

How long, though?

Pulpstar

Hopefully the suspended sentence is over 12 months (I think that pushes her out ?)

TGOHF

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Epic timing - the narrative of a ruling elite hardly being smashed ...

Let's just say, if it were you or I, or any other average voter, we'd be heading to prison PDQ.

Not if I identified as a black mother at the trial it seems.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think the AG will refer this sentence for review.

That would be some hand grenade to chuck into the mix!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1090236431807770625

SquareRoot

Pulpstar said:

Hopefully the suspended sentence is over 12 months (I think that pushes her out ?)

12 months and 1 day would suffice..

Xenon

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235606733676544

And the real reason for her not getting put away is revealed. She's black.

TheScreamingEagles

Am going to have to start posting links that show BAME people get longer sentences than non BAME people for the same crimes?

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think the AG will refer this sentence for review.

The judges comments about "fighting for social justice" reek of a massive bias.

dr_spyn

Time lag ?

https://twitter.com/SkyKatieSpencer/status/1090236479199154176

SquareRoot

SquareRoot said:

Pulpstar said:

Hopefully the suspended sentence is over 12 months (I think that pushes her out ?)

12 months and 1 day would suffice..

what are the sentencing guidelines?

bigjohnowls

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Oh my lord

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235461895897088

Completely and utterly out of touch.

Agreed you are!!

DecrepitJohnL

This judge could get a job writing for Eastenders, with plot twists in every sentence. It would be a nightmare for betting in-running though.

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1090236441521729536

I do not think she will worry about that to be honest

TGOHF

10 months.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090236870846488576

So all being well, he's be released at the start of April.

TrèsDifficile

TGOHF said:

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Epic timing - the narrative of a ruling elite hardly being smashed ...

Let's just say, if it were you or I, or any other average voter, we'd be heading to prison PDQ.

Not if I identified as a black mother at the trial it seems.

Not a mother. That's Osamor.

oxfordsimon

Xenon said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090235606733676544

And the real reason for her not getting put away is revealed. She's black.

There is zero evidence of her being an able parliamentarian at all

Sean_F

dr_spyn said:

Time lag ?

https://twitter.com/SkyKatieSpencer/status/1090236479199154176

Plainly there is.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090237126778806273

oxfordsimon

10 months in prison for the brother

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090237126778806273

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090237126778806273

Danny565

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090237126778806273

Eh, I thought he just said it had been suspended....

TGOHF

Cooper just lost 1 vote

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090236870846488576

So all being well, he's be released at the start of April.

So legally she can remain an MP then

Stereotomy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am going to have to start posting links that show BAME people get longer sentences than non BAME people for the same crimes?

Don't bother. If anyone seriously thinks the criminal justice system is biased in favour of black people, they're already on another planet.

oxfordsimon

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090237126778806273

Outrageous - her crime was worst than her brothers.

This is beyond ridiculous

Endillion

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am going to have to start posting links that show BAME people get longer sentences than non BAME people for the same crimes?

What happens if you exclude those who aren't prominent public figures with expensive lawyers?

david_herdson

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Epic timing - the narrative of a ruling elite hardly being smashed ...

Let's just say, if it were you or I, or any other average voter, we'd be heading to prison PDQ.

The judge almost literally said that earlier in his comments:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090213841106014208

Scott_P

So now the Cooper amendment fails, by 1 vote...

Pulpstar

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090237126778806273

Outrageous - her crime was worst than her brothers.

This is beyond ridiculous

Can someone remind me what each party did ?

eek

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090237126778806273

Outrageous - her crime was worst than her brothers.

This is beyond ridiculous

+1 I really don't get how the brother gets longer than the actual culprit...

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/SkyKatieSpencer/status/1090237248111558656


Peter Cook would have had a field day with this summing up.

DecrepitJohnL

Joke deleted.

TheScreamingEagles

Fiona O will be released from prison before the end of February, before Brexit thanks to HDC.

OldKingCole

Scott_P said:

So now the Cooper amendment fails, by 1 vote...

Unless she lodges an appeal and gets bail to do so.

Danny565

I think she'll probably resign anyway.

Sean_F

Stereotomy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am going to have to start posting links that show BAME people get longer sentences than non BAME people for the same crimes?

Don't bother. If anyone seriously thinks the criminal justice system is biased in favour of black people, they're already on another planet.

It sounds like she had a good barrister.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fiona O will be released from prison before the end of February, before Brexit thanks to HDC.

Surely you can't vote in the commons whilst serving a sentence (Even on tag) though ?

oxfordsimon

Danny565 said:

I think she'll probably resign anyway.

I don't - I think she will stick it out

Polruan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fiona O will be released from prison before the end of February, before Brexit thanks to HDC.

Presumably the curfew cuts across most evening divisions though.

TheScreamingEagles

Endillion said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am going to have to start posting links that show BAME people get longer sentences than non BAME people for the same crimes?

What happens if you exclude those who aren't prominent public figures with expensive lawyers?

Is the same pattern.

Sean_F

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/SkyKatieSpencer/status/1090237248111558656


Peter Cook would have had a field day with this summing up.

Yes, it is on a par with "Entirely a matter for you."

oxfordsimon

Pulpstar said:

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1090237126778806273

Outrageous - her crime was worst than her brothers.

This is beyond ridiculous

Can someone remind me what each party did ?

He pleaded guilty - for a start. She continues to deny it.

That alone makes it hard to believe how she got a lesser sentence. Plus being a solicitor, she knew the consequences of her actions and the law involved.

This is a mockery of justice.

Sean_F

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fiona O will be released from prison before the end of February, before Brexit thanks to HDC.

Surely you can't vote in the commons whilst serving a sentence (Even on tag) though ?

Maybe she'll be allowed to vote by proxy.

TheScreamingEagles

Polruan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fiona O will be released from prison before the end of February, before Brexit thanks to HDC.

Presumably the curfew cuts across most evening divisions though.

Depends, normally curfews are 7pm to 7am, however if the person is in gainful employment (or a carer, or has medical needs) the curfews can be much shorter.

david_herdson

If Onasanya appeals, that will run the risk of a longer sentence, won't it?

GIN1138

LOL! So there will be a bye election?

Stereotomy

Sean_F said:

Stereotomy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Am going to have to start posting links that show BAME people get longer sentences than non BAME people for the same crimes?

Don't bother. If anyone seriously thinks the criminal justice system is biased in favour of black people, they're already on another planet.

It sounds like she had a good barrister.

Yep, the system is certainly biased in favour of people who can afford a good lawyer.

Tissue_Price

She'll be out in time for the by-election!

Pulpstar

I don't think her being black has a tin of beans to do with her sentence, OTOH it has probably made her brother's more severe because he is a young black man.
The leniency is due to the judge being a bleeding lefty halfwit.