Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Article 50 Exit Day – Minus 59 and everything is now put back

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Article 50 Exit Day – Minus 59 and everything is now put back to February 13th

My initial take on this eve. ‘Though parliament rejected no deal, we’re now closer to it than ever’ https://t.co/VmDWCYfhfl

Read the full story here


Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    1st. As I hope I will be in the queue for bottled water.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Good to see we took back control tonight
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    We live in interesting times.
  • 1st. As I hope I will be in the queue for bottled water.

    Queue? You think it's going to be orderly?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    The theme tune is now Europe - Final Countdown
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,401
    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    1st. As I hope I will be in the queue for bottled water.

    Queue? You think it's going to be orderly?
    Boreholes and shotguns round here.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    1st. As I hope I will be in the queue for bottled water.

    Queue? You think it's going to be orderly?
    Used to be, during the Blitz.
  • kle4 said:

    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.

    It's not Theresa May who's kicking the can.
  • iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297
  • 1st. As I hope I will be in the queue for bottled water.

    Queue? You think it's going to be orderly?
    Used to be, during the Blitz.
    Yeah, that was then.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited January 2019
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2019
    Poor dears. Perhaps they'd care to give some thought to the question of how to solve this problem they've regrettably been landed with?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 2019
    The only thing more boring than Brexit are the endless "nothing has changed" gags....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though. Get rid of that friggin stupid notch.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though.
    Only down 5% YOY and that’s mainly due to China that is a politicial issue.

    Why the irrational hatred? This iCrap nonsense is juvenile.

    Posted from my iPhone.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    kle4 said:

    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.

    It's not Theresa May who's kicking the can.
    Yes it is, she supported the keep-pretending-to-believe-in-unicorns-for-a-bit amendment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    It does now seem the quiet majority of MPs realise they have to deliver some form of Brexit. Kicking the can has run out of road to kick it down. A second referendum will never find a majority for what the question should be. Revoking doesn't honour the referendum outcome. Extending needs to have some solid reason to ask for it, not just to dick around for 3 or 6 months more. No Deal is a shit outcome, that would be a damning indictment of the statecraft abilities of all concerned.

    I'm sure most MPs would give a huge sigh of relief if the EU could find a face-saving formulation - even if that is on 28th March.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    I'm sorry was I watching another channel?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1090376156480720901
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Danny565 said:

    The only thing more boring than Brexit are the endless "nothing has changed" gags....
    Nothing has changed!

    Its Groundhog Day.

    (Actually, on Saturday, it really is Groundhog Day)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,401

    I'm sorry was I watching another channel?
    https:twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1090376156480720901

    She won some votes she had a good chance of losing. That's technically a big win for her, even though it doesn't actually secure an outcome.
  • iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though.
    Only down 5% YOY and that’s mainly due to China that is a politicial issue.

    Why the irrational hatred? This iCrap nonsense is juvenile.

    Posted from my iPhone.
    5% down, is not just the phone, its all the other stuff e.g Revenue from the services business jumped 19% to a record $10.9bn in the quarter, which ended on the 31 December. The iPhone XR etc isn't doing well.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    It gets better. Truly the unicorn cult is deeply amongst us.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1090377625523183616
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Tonight's curious voters:

    Hardest line Brexiteer of them all : Anne Marie Morris (Sole Tory Brexiteer against Brady)

    Sole Labour to vote with Blackford : Farelly (Voted with Blackford)

    For Cooper but against Spelman : Freeman, Soames ?!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,401
    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Sean_F said:
    Generally, if we all have a problem, we all try to come together to sort it out.

    Like, us coming together when the Nazis over-ran Europe. Oh sorry, Sweden, you continued to sell bearings to both sides in WW2 didn't you? If you want to talk "a historical mistake" that’s "created a problem for all of us" - try looking at that one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,401

    kle4 said:

    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.

    It's not Theresa May who's kicking the can.
    Was it someone else's government who whipped its members to support kicking the can?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    1st. As I hope I will be in the queue for bottled water.

    Personally I'm quaking with fear at the imminent prospect of a lettuce shortage.

    The theme tune is now Europe - Final Countdown

    The theme from Steptoe & Son might work quite well for Parliament.

    That, or Yakety Sax - with hundreds of order paper-waving MPs endlessly chasing Theresa May round and round the Palace of Westminster.

    1st. As I hope I will be in the queue for bottled water.

    Queue? You think it's going to be orderly?
    I'm pretty certain it will start out orderly. Good manners might even survive the previously predicted arrival of World War III and collapse of Western civilisation.

    The 30% fall in house prices, on the other hand...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    It does now seem the quiet majority of MPs realise they have to deliver some form of Brexit. Kicking the can has run out of road to kick it down. A second referendum will never find a majority for what the question should be. Revoking doesn't honour the referendum outcome. Extending needs to have some solid reason to ask for it, not just to dick around for 3 or 6 months more. No Deal is a shit outcome, that would be a damning indictment of the statecraft abilities of all concerned.

    I'm sure most MPs would give a huge sigh of relief if the EU could find a face-saving formulation - even if that is on 28th March.

    There are lots of face saving formulations that simply involve an acceptance that the province itself has the final say, or an independent group determining whether us, the EU and the Republic of Ireland have acted in good faith in implementing a technological solution.

    Of course, the latter could even be in a codicil, because if it were adjudged that the EU was not acting in good faith on its side of the treaty, then we could simply abrogate it.

    (And the Vienna convention does not apply, because the EU is not a nation state, and is not a signatory to the convention, and therefore there are exactly no legal consequences from abrogation anyway...)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    I'm sorry was I watching another channel?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1090376156480720901

    Go Girl!!!!!! :D
  • kle4 said:

    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
    I do find this angle of attack slightly weird. How many disputes between unions and governments have been "agreed", but it still has to be put to the union members and they have rejected it.

    It wasn't that long ago the junior doctors did exactly this. Hunt and the BMA agreed a deal, the junior doctors voted not to accept.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,401

    It gets better. Truly the unicorn cult is deeply amongst us.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1090377625523183616

    I know big headlines are part of the point of newspapers, but editors have to know they are truly hostages to fortune with ones like that. I mean, yes, technically uniting (however temporarily) that bunch of malcontents that is the Tory party was an achievement, but the fundamentals of the problem remain before us. 'Indomitable PM' lines can be saved for if she ever actually gets her deal approved.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    kle4 said:

    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
    I do find this angle of attack slightly weird. How many disputes between unions and governments have been "agreed", but it still has to be put to the union members and they have rejected it.

    It wasn't that long ago the junior doctors did exactly this. Hunt and the BMA agreed a deal, the junior doctors voted not to accept.
    The Junior Doctors then lost. They folded shortly afterwards.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though.
    Only down 5% YOY and that’s mainly due to China that is a politicial issue.

    Why the irrational hatred? This iCrap nonsense is juvenile.

    Posted from my iPhone.
    A 15% YoY drop for your leading product would generally be held to be bad news. There have been a lot of mobile phone companies that have seen these sort of "blips" turn into an avalanche. Now Apple is shielded by a gigantic pile of cash, but it had better use it wisely. So far there really hasn't been anything since the iPad (which has declined a fair bit itself) that has really excited people; and there has been a sequence of duds, like Siri, Apple Maps, Homepod, Airpower, and the car project (which appears to be in a lot of trouble).

    I think fundamentally the hardware is rapidly being commoditised — you can get some fantastically good cheap phones now — and Apple remains as crap as ever at the services (which are what we are really using our gadgets for).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    Danny565 said:

    The only thing more boring than Brexit are the endless "nothing has changed" gags....
    Nothing has changed!

    Its Groundhog Day.

    (Actually, on Saturday, it really is Groundhog Day)
    Poor old Punxsutawney Phil May, having to wake up to his wife's identical deal, every day......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
    I do find this angle of attack slightly weird. How many disputes between unions and governments have been "agreed", but it still has to be put to the union members and they have rejected it.

    It wasn't that long ago the junior doctors did exactly this. Hunt and the BMA agreed a deal, the junior doctors voted not to accept.
    The Junior Doctors then lost. They folded shortly afterwards.
    Yes, but the point was, it is quite normal for a union to agreed a deal on the condition of members backing. They aren't reneging if the members say we would like you to go back and get a different deal, and the union reps do as their members request.

    The PM and the EU know any deal has to get through parliament, so to say May (and everybody knows I ain't much of a fan) is reneging therefore it is no surprise the backstop etc, just isn't being fair.

    If May had her way, we would be signed up the WA months ago.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    glw said:

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though.
    Only down 5% YOY and that’s mainly due to China that is a politicial issue.

    Why the irrational hatred? This iCrap nonsense is juvenile.

    Posted from my iPhone.
    A 15% YoY drop for your leading product would generally be held to be bad news. There have been a lot of mobile phone companies that have seen these sort of "blips" turn into an avalanche. Now Apple is shielded by a gigantic pile of cash, but it had better use it wisely. So far there really hasn't been anything since the iPad (which has declined a fair bit itself) that has really excited people; and there has been a sequence of duds, like Siri, Apple Maps, Homepod, Airpower, and the car project (which appears to be in a lot of trouble).

    I think fundamentally the hardware is rapidly being commoditised — you can get some fantastically good cheap phones now — and Apple remains as crap as ever at the services (which are what we are really using our gadgets for).
    Apple's Siri is the equivalent of Yahoo search....everybody is better than them and they don't seem to be able to improve at any real rate.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    So Betfair is now giving us, roughly speaking:
    No Deal on 29 March 20%
    Leave with deal on 29 March 10%
    Deal passes by 29 March but leave later 20%

    I'm really not sure about the other 50%. Should we just double all those figures?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    glw said:

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though.
    Only down 5% YOY and that’s mainly due to China that is a politicial issue.

    Why the irrational hatred? This iCrap nonsense is juvenile.

    Posted from my iPhone.
    A 15% YoY drop for your leading product would generally be held to be bad news. There have been a lot of mobile phone companies that have seen these sort of "blips" turn into an avalanche. Now Apple is shielded by a gigantic pile of cash, but it had better use it wisely. So far there really hasn't been anything since the iPad (which has declined a fair bit itself) that has really excited people; and there has been a sequence of duds, like Siri, Apple Maps, Homepod, Airpower, and the car project (which appears to be in a lot of trouble).

    I think fundamentally the hardware is rapidly being commoditised — you can get some fantastically good cheap phones now — and Apple remains as crap as ever at the services (which are what we are really using our gadgets for).
    Nokia springs to mind.
  • glw said:

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though.
    Only down 5% YOY and that’s mainly due to China that is a politicial issue.

    Why the irrational hatred? This iCrap nonsense is juvenile.

    Posted from my iPhone.
    A 15% YoY drop for your leading product would generally be held to be bad news. There have been a lot of mobile phone companies that have seen these sort of "blips" turn into an avalanche. Now Apple is shielded by a gigantic pile of cash, but it had better use it wisely. So far there really hasn't been anything since the iPad (which has declined a fair bit itself) that has really excited people; and there has been a sequence of duds, like Siri, Apple Maps, Homepod, Airpower, and the car project (which appears to be in a lot of trouble).

    I think fundamentally the hardware is rapidly being commoditised — you can get some fantastically good cheap phones now — and Apple remains as crap as ever at the services (which are what we are really using our gadgets for).
    Nokia springs to mind.
    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    glw said:

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though.
    Only down 5% YOY and that’s mainly due to China that is a politicial issue.

    Why the irrational hatred? This iCrap nonsense is juvenile.

    Posted from my iPhone.
    A 15% YoY drop for your leading product would generally be held to be bad news. There have been a lot of mobile phone companies that have seen these sort of "blips" turn into an avalanche. Now Apple is shielded by a gigantic pile of cash, but it had better use it wisely. So far there really hasn't been anything since the iPad (which has declined a fair bit itself) that has really excited people; and there has been a sequence of duds, like Siri, Apple Maps, Homepod, Airpower, and the car project (which appears to be in a lot of trouble).

    I think fundamentally the hardware is rapidly being commoditised — you can get some fantastically good cheap phones now — and Apple remains as crap as ever at the services (which are what we are really using our gadgets for).
    Nokia springs to mind.
    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?
    Vince Cable does sound a bit telecommunication-y
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    edited January 2019

    Sean_F said:
    Generally, if we all have a problem, we all try to come together to sort it out.

    Like, us coming together when the Nazis over-ran Europe. Oh sorry, Sweden, you continued to sell bearings to both sides in WW2 didn't you? If you want to talk "a historical mistake" that’s "created a problem for all of us" - try looking at that one.
    Fucking Europeans and their... *shuffles deck, pulls out card*...neutrality.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    This is just embarrassing. And desperately sad.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
    I do find this angle of attack slightly weird. How many disputes between unions and governments have been "agreed", but it still has to be put to the union members and they have rejected it.

    It wasn't that long ago the junior doctors did exactly this. Hunt and the BMA agreed a deal, the junior doctors voted not to accept.
    The Junior Doctors then lost. They folded shortly afterwards.
    Yes, but the point was, it is quite normal for a union to agreed a deal on the condition of members backing. They aren't reneging if the members say we would like you to go back and get a different deal, and the union reps do as their members request.

    The PM and the EU know any deal has to get through parliament, so to say May (and everybody knows I ain't much of a fan) is reneging therefore it is no surprise the backstop etc, just isn't being fair.

    If May had her way, we would be signed up the WA months ago.
    Do you have an example of when the membership rejected their negotiators deal, then won the dispute?

    I am thinking Greece and Tsipras.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited January 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    This is just embarrassing. And desperately sad.

    It feels like the long, slow, and undignified death of the UK state.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Chris said:

    So Betfair is now giving us, roughly speaking:
    No Deal on 29 March 20%
    Leave with deal on 29 March 10%
    Deal passes by 29 March but leave later 20%

    I'm really not sure about the other 50%. Should we just double all those figures?

    Remain must be in there somewhere. Also No Deal after an extension (GE or #peoplesvote)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
    I do find this angle of attack slightly weird. How many disputes between unions and governments have been "agreed", but it still has to be put to the union members and they have rejected it.

    It wasn't that long ago the junior doctors did exactly this. Hunt and the BMA agreed a deal, the junior doctors voted not to accept.
    The Junior Doctors then lost. They folded shortly afterwards.
    Yes, but the point was, it is quite normal for a union to agreed a deal on the condition of members backing. They aren't reneging if the members say we would like you to go back and get a different deal, and the union reps do as their members request.

    The PM and the EU know any deal has to get through parliament, so to say May (and everybody knows I ain't much of a fan) is reneging therefore it is no surprise the backstop etc, just isn't being fair.

    If May had her way, we would be signed up the WA months ago.
    Do you have an example of when the membership rejected their negotiators deal, then won the dispute?

    I am thinking Greece and Tsipras.
    Isn't it fairly standard story of the numerous rail disputes? Normally goes strike, no-deal, strike, more talks, strike, deal, member rejection, strike, then some renegotiation, before being agree.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    So Betfair is now giving us, roughly speaking:
    No Deal on 29 March 20%
    Leave with deal on 29 March 10%
    Deal passes by 29 March but leave later 20%

    I'm really not sure about the other 50%. Should we just double all those figures?

    Remain must be in there somewhere. Also No Deal after an extension (GE or #peoplesvote)
    Those are in the other 50%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
    I do find this angle of attack slightly weird. How many disputes between unions and governments have been "agreed", but it still has to be put to the union members and they have rejected it.

    It wasn't that long ago the junior doctors did exactly this. Hunt and the BMA agreed a deal, the junior doctors voted not to accept.
    The Junior Doctors then lost. They folded shortly afterwards.
    Yes, but the point was, it is quite normal for a union to agreed a deal on the condition of members backing. They aren't reneging if the members say we would like you to go back and get a different deal, and the union reps do as their members request.

    The PM and the EU know any deal has to get through parliament, so to say May (and everybody knows I ain't much of a fan) is reneging therefore it is no surprise the backstop etc, just isn't being fair.

    If May had her way, we would be signed up the WA months ago.
    Do you have an example of when the membership rejected their negotiators deal, then won the dispute?

    I am thinking Greece and Tsipras.
    Isn't it fairly standard story of the numerous rail disputes? Normally goes strike, no-deal, strike, strike, deal, member rejection, strike, then some renegotiation, before being agree.
    I don't follow them that closely.

    More often this is typical:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33492387
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    So Betfair is now giving us, roughly speaking:
    No Deal on 29 March 20%
    Leave with deal on 29 March 10%
    Deal passes by 29 March but leave later 20%

    I'm really not sure about the other 50%. Should we just double all those figures?

    Remain must be in there somewhere. Also No Deal after an extension (GE or #peoplesvote)
    Those are in the other 50%
    That is what I meant.

    Personally, I don't think Betfair punters know anymore of where we are headed than Dee in my local Co-op.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Apple's Siri is the equivalent of Yahoo search....everybody is better than them and they don't seem to be able to improve at any real rate.

    They shot themselves in the foot with the whole "we won't use your data" thing, you need data to train this stuff.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    So Betfair is now giving us, roughly speaking:
    No Deal on 29 March 20%
    Leave with deal on 29 March 10%
    Deal passes by 29 March but leave later 20%

    I'm really not sure about the other 50%. Should we just double all those figures?

    Remain must be in there somewhere. Also No Deal after an extension (GE or #peoplesvote)
    Those are in the other 50%
    That is what I meant.

    Personally, I don't think Betfair punters know anymore of where we are headed than Dee in my local Co-op.
    They knew more than people here about the amendments tonight!
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
    I do find this angle of attack slightly weird. How many disputes between unions and governments have been "agreed", but it still has to be put to the union members and they have rejected it.

    It wasn't that long ago the junior doctors did exactly this. Hunt and the BMA agreed a deal, the junior doctors voted not to accept.
    The Junior Doctors then lost. They folded shortly afterwards.
    Yes, but the point was, it is quite normal for a union to agreed a deal on the condition of members backing. They aren't reneging if the members say we would like you to go back and get a different deal, and the union reps do as their members request.

    The PM and the EU know any deal has to get through parliament, so to say May (and everybody knows I ain't much of a fan) is reneging therefore it is no surprise the backstop etc, just isn't being fair.

    If May had her way, we would be signed up the WA months ago.
    Do you have an example of when the membership rejected their negotiators deal, then won the dispute?

    I am thinking Greece and Tsipras.
    Isn't it fairly standard story of the numerous rail disputes? Normally goes strike, no-deal, strike, strike, deal, member rejection, strike, then some renegotiation, before being agree.
    I don't follow them that closely.

    More often this is typical:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33492387
    Maybe this is where the government are going wrong. They are used to dealing with rail unions, where we know the usual game, it involves some strikes, a union bod declaring the government are being unreasonable, the government declaring the strikers being unfair to commuters and there will be no comprise from either side, before that eventually there is movement on both sides?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In other American news, those taking the line that Trump is playing 12 dimensional chess in playing to the American public have had the view take a bit of a blow.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1090322770712584193?s=19
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?

    Nokia (HMD) is actually doing quite well, but I don't know if they can compete with the likes of Huawei, Xiaomi, and BBK in the long run. Even Samsung is having to beef up their low to mid range hardware (2018 phones were much better specced than their 2017 predecessors, with less corner cutting), and they have a new Samsung Galaxy M series to compete directly against the Chinese OEMs. The Chinese OEMs are no longer merely making good copies, they genuinely compete with the best other brands, and are doing real "firsts".
  • I am pleased for TM tonight for not only winning her vote but seeing Grieve and Cooper's amendments defeated

    If I was wanting a second referendum I would be depressed because tonight showed it is very unlikely to obtain support

    Having said I am pleased for TM, I still have reservations where this is going but as was indicated on Sky's paper review the EU are now looking vulnerable to the voters blaming them if they refuse to talk.

    Indeed tonight has achieved that probability but I am still doubtful that 'anything will change'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,401
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    It was not reneged on, parliament never agreed to it and she is (futilely) trying to do something to salvage the. It's stupid, and to a large degree her fault, but this talk of reneging is just plain wrong. She tried to follow through, and now, no matter what she might personally want, she cannot manage it. She has to do something else, this is what she has chosen.
    I do find this angle of attack slightly weird. How many disputes between unions and governments have been "agreed", but it still has to be put to the union members and they have rejected it.

    It wasn't that long ago the junior doctors did exactly this. Hunt and the BMA agreed a deal, the junior doctors voted not to accept.
    The Junior Doctors then lost. They folded shortly afterwards.
    Yes, but the point was, it is quite normal for a union to agreed a deal on the condition of members backing. They aren't reneging if the members say we would like you to go back and get a different deal, and the union reps do as their members request.

    The PM and the EU know any deal has to get through parliament, so to say May (and everybody knows I ain't much of a fan) is reneging therefore it is no surprise the backstop etc, just isn't being fair.

    If May had her way, we would be signed up the WA months ago.
    Do you have an example of when the membership rejected their negotiators deal, then won the dispute?

    I am thinking Greece and Tsipras.
    It's not a good plan, in fact it is a stupid plan, but it is not the UK, or May, reneging on the deal, the deal has not been approved yet so it cannot be reneged on. She's just admitting to them that she cannot deliver, which is not the same thing at all.

    There's enough actual stupidity in this whole mess, and plenty to throw at May, without people feeling the need to invent some as well.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Alistair said:

    In other American news, those taking the line that Trump is playing 12 dimensional chess in playing to the American public have had the view take a bit of a blow.

    I look forward to reading about how Trump being jailed is all part of some master plan to defeat the Deep State.
  • glw said:

    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?

    Nokia (HMD) is actually doing quite well, but I don't know if they can compete with the likes of Huawei, Xiaomi, and BBK in the long run. Even Samsung is having to beef up their low to mid range hardware (2018 phones were much better specced than their 2017 predecessors, with less corner cutting), and they have a new Samsung Galaxy M series to compete directly against the Chinese OEMs. The Chinese OEMs are no longer merely making good copies, they genuinely compete with the best other brands, and are doing real "firsts".
    Its amazing what you can do if you nick everybodies trade secrets (allegedly).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    glw said:

    Alistair said:

    In other American news, those taking the line that Trump is playing 12 dimensional chess in playing to the American public have had the view take a bit of a blow.

    I look forward to reading about how Trump being jailed is all part of some master plan to defeat the Deep State.
    I thought it was all part of a secret plan to bring down some globalist paedo network?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,401
    Looking at some of the details of the Lab rebels, I am amazed to learn that Caroline Flint is 57
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    glw said:

    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?

    Nokia (HMD) is actually doing quite well, but I don't know if they can compete with the likes of Huawei, Xiaomi, and BBK in the long run. Even Samsung is having to beef up their low to mid range hardware (2018 phones were much better specced than their 2017 predecessors, with less corner cutting), and they have a new Samsung Galaxy M series to compete directly against the Chinese OEMs. The Chinese OEMs are no longer merely making good copies, they genuinely compete with the best other brands, and are doing real "firsts".
    i have still got an 8800 Sirocco as a standby phone. It is a great phone, the engineering quality is just as good as Apple do.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kle4 said:

    Looking at some of the details of the Lab rebels, I am amazed to learn that Caroline Flint is 57

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQqNUwNNkTo
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232

    ... the EU are now looking vulnerable to the voters blaming them if they refuse to talk..

    I agree, but I don't think they care. I suspect this entire thing is yet another case of "failing and blaming", and I am annoyed that our political classes do not give a damn whether we live or die, just as long as they can blame somebody else.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    glw said:

    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?

    Nokia (HMD) is actually doing quite well, but I don't know if they can compete with the likes of Huawei, Xiaomi, and BBK in the long run. Even Samsung is having to beef up their low to mid range hardware (2018 phones were much better specced than their 2017 predecessors, with less corner cutting), and they have a new Samsung Galaxy M series to compete directly against the Chinese OEMs. The Chinese OEMs are no longer merely making good copies, they genuinely compete with the best other brands, and are doing real "firsts".
    Its amazing what you can do if you nick everybodies trade secrets (allegedly).
    I think it's more than that, although that has undoubtably played a part. China is making massive investments to catch up in high technology, in academia, in corportate R&D, in manufacturing. Those investments will pay off eventually, and are starting to do so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    glw said:

    glw said:

    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?

    Nokia (HMD) is actually doing quite well, but I don't know if they can compete with the likes of Huawei, Xiaomi, and BBK in the long run. Even Samsung is having to beef up their low to mid range hardware (2018 phones were much better specced than their 2017 predecessors, with less corner cutting), and they have a new Samsung Galaxy M series to compete directly against the Chinese OEMs. The Chinese OEMs are no longer merely making good copies, they genuinely compete with the best other brands, and are doing real "firsts".
    Its amazing what you can do if you nick everybodies trade secrets (allegedly).
    I think it's more than that, although that has undoubtably played a part. China is making massive investments to catch up in high technology, in academia, in corportate R&D, in manufacturing. Those investments will pay off eventually, and are starting to do so.
    I think the big thing with the like of Xiaomi and Huawei is that they have embraced quality (and quality control) rather than just how cheap can we knock off another phone. However, the user experience obviously still all relies on Android from Google.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    I see the once-in-a-generation cold snap in the US has Trump wading in on global warming again:

    "What the hell is going on with Global Waming? Please come back fast, we need you!"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089
  • kle4 said:

    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.

    It's not Theresa May who's kicking the can.
    Yes it is, she supported the keep-pretending-to-believe-in-unicorns-for-a-bit amendment.
    She's been criticised for not listening to parliament. Now she's being criticised for listening to parliament. Admittedly parliament is talking tosh, but what is she supposed to do? It's not her fault that idiot MPs haven't yet got the message that There Is No Alternative. No-one could claim that she hasn't been assiduous in pointing that out.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    I see the once-in-a-generation cold snap in the US has Trump wading in on global warming again:

    "What the hell is going on with Global Waming? Please come back fast, we need you!"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089

    One of my lads currently in Chicago - he has sent some amazing pictures back.

    He also finds it amusing that with 9 inches of snow they still can keep things running
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,401

    I see the once-in-a-generation cold snap in the US has Trump wading in on global warming again:

    "What the hell is going on with Global Warming? Please come back fast, we need you!"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089

    As predictable as snow in Chicago.

    I had not realised it was going to be quite as cold as that. Even with that level being unusual, thank goodness I live in a country without such extremes!
  • glw said:

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though.
    Only down 5% YOY and that’s mainly due to China that is a politicial issue.

    Why the irrational hatred? This iCrap nonsense is juvenile.

    Posted from my iPhone.
    A 15% YoY drop for your leading product would generally be held to be bad news. There have been a lot of mobile phone companies that have seen these sort of "blips" turn into an avalanche. Now Apple is shielded by a gigantic pile of cash, but it had better use it wisely. So far there really hasn't been anything since the iPad (which has declined a fair bit itself) that has really excited people; and there has been a sequence of duds, like Siri, Apple Maps, Homepod, Airpower, and the car project (which appears to be in a lot of trouble).

    I think fundamentally the hardware is rapidly being commoditised — you can get some fantastically good cheap phones now — and Apple remains as crap as ever at the services (which are what we are really using our gadgets for).
    Nokia springs to mind.
    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?
    Vince Cable does sound a bit telecommunication-y
    Didn't the Lib Dems once lose a by-election because their candidate worked for Nokia?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited January 2019


    I think the big thing with the like of Xiaomi and Huawei is that they have embraced quality (and quality control) rather than just how cheap can we knock off another phone.

    Indeed, the amount of phone you get for £200 these days is pretty spectacular. Used to be cheap Chinese stuff meant crap screen, crap build, crap battery, etc etc. Now everything is good to very good.

    They're also innovating - Xiaomi's foldable tablet/mobile combo is seriously impressive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3-aDOMI6Mk
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    I think the big thing with the like of Xiaomi and Huawei is that they have embraced quality (and quality control) rather than just how cheap can we knock off another phone. However, the user experience obviously still all relies on Android from Google.

    The hardware has improved enormously. The software of Chinese OEMs is still pretty bad*, although to be fair some of them are now doing Android One phones with essentially stock OS and regular updates. It does seem that they are slowly learning that they need to tailor their devices to other markets.

    * That may be simply because it suits a Chinese market better, as they tend to be heavily themed and stuffed full of "useful" features, and maybe they are less relevant in Western markets.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    kle4 said:

    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.

    It's not Theresa May who's kicking the can.
    Yes it is, she supported the keep-pretending-to-believe-in-unicorns-for-a-bit amendment.
    She's been criticised for not listening to parliament. Now she's being criticised for listening to parliament. Admittedly parliament is talking tosh, but what is she supposed to do? It's not her fault that idiot MPs haven't yet got the message that There Is No Alternative. No-one could claim that she hasn't been assiduous in pointing that out.
    If the line is that there's no alternative, why did she whip her party to support an alternative?
  • Andrew said:


    I think the big thing with the like of Xiaomi and Huawei is that they have embraced quality (and quality control) rather than just how cheap can we knock off another phone.

    Indeed, the amount of phone you get for £200 these days is pretty spectacular. Used to be cheap Chinese stuff meant crap screen, crap build, crap battery, etc etc. Now everything is good to very good.

    They're also innovating - Xiaomi's foldable tablet/mobile combo is seriously impressive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3-aDOMI6Mk
    Impressive Beats adding 0.1cm to the screen size.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2019

    kle4 said:

    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.

    It's not Theresa May who's kicking the can.
    Yes it is, she supported the keep-pretending-to-believe-in-unicorns-for-a-bit amendment.
    She's been criticised for not listening to parliament. Now she's being criticised for listening to parliament. Admittedly parliament is talking tosh, but what is she supposed to do? It's not her fault that idiot MPs haven't yet got the message that There Is No Alternative. No-one could claim that she hasn't been assiduous in pointing that out.
    If the line is that there's no alternative, why did she whip her party to support an alternative?
    Because she's trying to find a way through the mess, a way which parliament can support. Yes, of course, in a rational world she'd have told the children not to be so stupid. She's tried that, so far without success, and has been criticised for not pandering to their nonsense. Now she's being criticised for saying that she'll run their nonsense past the EU. At least she's got MPs to agree to something. Of course it will get the same answer as last time, but that's what 'listening to parliament' means. No doubt she'll come back soon with the message that Nothing Has Changed and There Is No Alternative, both of which will be true.

    Meanwhile, we'll be even closer to crash-out day and even more irreversible damage will have been done to the UK economy. The blame for that lies with the MPs who voted for triggering Article 50 and are now refusing to vote for the deal agreed under Article 50.
  • I am pleased for TM tonight for not only winning her vote but seeing Grieve and Cooper's amendments defeated

    If I was wanting a second referendum I would be depressed because tonight showed it is very unlikely to obtain support

    Having said I am pleased for TM, I still have reservations where this is going but as was indicated on Sky's paper review the EU are now looking vulnerable to the voters blaming them if they refuse to talk.

    Indeed tonight has achieved that probability but I am still doubtful that 'anything will change'

    While I'm very glad too and pleased that we are on the same page do you not find it at all odd that May has seen through today by doing what her critics have said to do for a while now?

    I hope May wholeheartedly pursues a change and doesn't just fold as soon as when hits EU intransigence.
  • kle4 said:

    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.

    It's not Theresa May who's kicking the can.
    Yes it is, she supported the keep-pretending-to-believe-in-unicorns-for-a-bit amendment.
    She's been criticised for not listening to parliament. Now she's being criticised for listening to parliament. Admittedly parliament is talking tosh, but what is she supposed to do? It's not her fault that idiot MPs haven't yet got the message that There Is No Alternative. No-one could claim that she hasn't been assiduous in pointing that out.
    If the line is that there's no alternative, why did she whip her party to support an alternative?
    Because she's trying to find a way through the mess, a way which parliament can support. Yes, of course, in a rational world she'd have told the children not to be so stupid. She's tried that, so far without success, and has been criticised for not pandering to their nonsense. Now she's being criticised for saying that she'll run their nonsense past the EU. At least she's got MPs to agree to something. Of course it will get the same answer as last time, but that's what 'listening to parliament' means. No doubt she'll come back soon with the message that Nothing Has Changed and There Is No Alternative, both of which will be true.

    Meanwhile, we'll be even closer to crash-out day and even more irreversible damage will have been done to the UK economy. The blame for that lies with the MPs who voted for triggering Article 50 and are now refusing to vote for the deal agreed under Article 50.
    EU compromises are only reached when their backs are against the wall. A change is possible if they want a deal and think we are serious.

    If no deal is reached then unless May as wholeheartedly sought the change she will rightly be blamed and not the claim that TINA.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2019

    EU compromises are only reached when their backs are against the wall. A change is possible if they want a deal and think we are serious.

    If no deal is reached then unless May as wholeheartedly sought the change she will rightly be blamed and not the claim that TINA.

    I'm afraid that's naive. Yes, they very much want a deal, but (a) they calculate, rightly, that we have a hell of a lot more to lose than they do, and (b) they assess, correctly, that even if they were to take out the backstop altogether, that still wouldn't mean that the UK parliament would ratify the deal. Today's votes will have conclusively proven the latter point. There is nothing they can do which will simultaneously satisfy the ERG, the DUP, continuity Remainers and Labour. In fact, there is nothing they can do which will satisfy any of those groups except the DUP.
  • I am pleased for TM tonight for not only winning her vote but seeing Grieve and Cooper's amendments defeated

    If I was wanting a second referendum I would be depressed because tonight showed it is very unlikely to obtain support

    Having said I am pleased for TM, I still have reservations where this is going but as was indicated on Sky's paper review the EU are now looking vulnerable to the voters blaming them if they refuse to talk.

    Indeed tonight has achieved that probability but I am still doubtful that 'anything will change'

    While I'm very glad too and pleased that we are on the same page do you not find it at all odd that May has seen through today by doing what her critics have said to do for a while now?

    I hope May wholeheartedly pursues a change and doesn't just fold as soon as when hits EU intransigence.
    I think she has just been pragmatic

    As I said the EU have a huge PR problem now I would expect Varadkar and other EU leaders, for all their bravado, are not sleeping quite as easily tonight
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    iCrap...

    Sales of the Apple iPhone have fallen hitting the tech giant's financial performance. The firm's revenue fell 5% from a year ago to about $84.3bn (£64.5bn) in the most recent quarter, with iPhone revenue down 15% to about $52bn.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47047297

    It’s still the 2nd best quarter in their history.
    The iCrap phone not doing so well though. Get rid of that friggin stupid notch.
    You are a class poster but weirdly obsessed with Apple. If you don’t like the iPhone there are plenty of other phones on the market!
  • Time to call it a day after amazing politics

    That 'bloody difficult woman' will be echoing round Europe's capitals in the coming days

    Have a great nights rest folks

    Good night
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    I am pleased for TM tonight for not only winning her vote but seeing Grieve and Cooper's amendments defeated

    If I was wanting a second referendum I would be depressed because tonight showed it is very unlikely to obtain support

    Having said I am pleased for TM, I still have reservations where this is going but as was indicated on Sky's paper review the EU are now looking vulnerable to the voters blaming them if they refuse to talk.

    Indeed tonight has achieved that probability but I am still doubtful that 'anything will change'

    While I'm very glad too and pleased that we are on the same page do you not find it at all odd that May has seen through today by doing what her critics have said to do for a while now?

    I hope May wholeheartedly pursues a change and doesn't just fold as soon as when hits EU intransigence.
    Well she has at least retained the leverage of threatening the EU with us still leaving on 29th March if they refuse to play ball. My fear is that because she doesn't herself want that outcome, she will as you say just fold when the EU opt for intransigence in the expectation that May will still be bluffing. Even if she isn't, that is now quite a rational expectation on the part of an EU still trying to persuade us to change our mind, because May has form on the matter. We won't be able to dispel those expectations unless we leave on 29th March under temporary WTO terms, at which point the negotiations will be able to begin in earnest.

    On negotiating tactics and the folly of ruling out leaving on WTO terms, this is worth a read: "If the Commission had to write an amendment to increase their own negotiating leverage, Yvette Cooper and Nick Boles' amendment would be what they came up with."
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/yvette-cooper-nick-boles-amendment_uk_5c4f1f1ae4b0287e5b8d081f

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    So we went for can kicking in the end, hold the current position in a status quo and come back and do it again soon.

    Will the Tories that have been talking up rebellion on the remain side actually rebel, will the ERG actually come around to voting for the deal...

    Or are we just now on course for no deal?

    I'm leaning towards no deal being the likely outcome at this point, I think given the choice that is where the Tories will take us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,711
    edited January 2019

    So we went for can kicking in the end, hold the current position in a status quo and come back and do it again soon.

    Will the Tories that have been talking up rebellion on the remain side actually rebel, will the ERG actually come around to voting for the deal...

    Or are we just now on course for no deal?

    I'm leaning towards no deal being the likely outcome at this point, I think given the choice that is where the Tories will take us.

    The 17 Tory MPs who voted to defy the government and reject No Deal tonight are pivotal, if May's Deal goes down again and they switch to back permanent Customs Union which Labour is proposing and which Ministers like Margot James have also suggested as a last resort to avoid No Deal then that would likely have a narrow majority given No Deal was rejected by the Commons by 310 to 318 MPs tonight thanks to those 17
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Clear tonight that the ERG has become tactically sharper (Bar the odd Ann Marie Morris).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    So we went for can kicking in the end, hold the current position in a status quo and come back and do it again soon.

    Will the Tories that have been talking up rebellion on the remain side actually rebel, will the ERG actually come around to voting for the deal...

    Or are we just now on course for no deal?

    I'm leaning towards no deal being the likely outcome at this point, I think given the choice that is where the Tories will take us.

    The 17 Tory MPs who voted to defy the government and reject No Deal tonight are pivotal, if May's Deal goes down again and they switch to back permanent Customs Union which Labour is proposing and which Ministers like Margot James have also suggested as a last resort to avoid No Deal then that would likely have a narrow majority given No Deal was rejected by the Commons by 310 to 318 MPs tonight thanks to those 17
    Allen, Bebb, Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry, Lee all seem to be eternally against the Government now. I'm excluding Clarke as he voted for the WA despite being an ultra-remainer. The rest are up for grabs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,711
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we went for can kicking in the end, hold the current position in a status quo and come back and do it again soon.

    Will the Tories that have been talking up rebellion on the remain side actually rebel, will the ERG actually come around to voting for the deal...

    Or are we just now on course for no deal?

    I'm leaning towards no deal being the likely outcome at this point, I think given the choice that is where the Tories will take us.

    The 17 Tory MPs who voted to defy the government and reject No Deal tonight are pivotal, if May's Deal goes down again and they switch to back permanent Customs Union which Labour is proposing and which Ministers like Margot James have also suggested as a last resort to avoid No Deal then that would likely have a narrow majority given No Deal was rejected by the Commons by 310 to 318 MPs tonight thanks to those 17
    Allen, Bebb, Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry, Lee all seem to be eternally against the Government now. I'm excluding Clarke as he voted for the WA despite being an ultra-remainer. The rest are up for grabs.
    The rest made clear tonight by defying the Government to vote with the opposition to rule out No Deal if May's Deal fails again they will almost certainly vote with Labour, the LDs and the SNP for a permanent Customs Union if that was the only alternative left to No Deal that could get a Commons majority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,711
    edited January 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So we went for can kicking in the end, hold the current position in a status quo and come back and do it again soon.

    Will the Tories that have been talking up rebellion on the remain side actually rebel, will the ERG actually come around to voting for the deal...

    Or are we just now on course for no deal?

    I'm leaning towards no deal being the likely outcome at this point, I think given the choice that is where the Tories will take us.

    The 17 Tory MPs who voted to defy the government and reject No Deal tonight are pivotal, if May's Deal goes down again and they switch to back permanent Customs Union which Labour is proposing and which Ministers like Margot James have also suggested as a last resort to avoid No Deal then that would likely have a narrow majority given No Deal was rejected by the Commons by 310 to 318 MPs tonight thanks to those 17
    Allen, Bebb, Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry, Lee all seem to be eternally against the Government now. I'm excluding Clarke as he voted for the WA despite being an ultra-remainer. The rest are up for grabs.
    The rest made clear tonight by defying the Government to vote with the opposition to rule out No Deal if May's Deal fails again they will almost certainly vote with Labour, the LDs and the SNP for a permanent Customs Union if that was the only alternative left to No Deal that could get a Commons majority
    If May is clever she would then put the Deal to the Commons a third time telling the ERG if they do not vote for the Deal this time the Commons vote for a permanent Customs Union would stand
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Spain showing willingness to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement:

    https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1090412455057084416
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    Looking at some of the details of the Lab rebels, I am amazed to learn that Caroline Flint is 57

    She's always looked a lot younger than she is.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    glw said:

    The Lib Dems of phones....Ask a teenager who are Nokia...No-who?

    Nokia (HMD) is actually doing quite well, but I don't know if they can compete with the likes of Huawei, Xiaomi, and BBK in the long run. Even Samsung is having to beef up their low to mid range hardware (2018 phones were much better specced than their 2017 predecessors, with less corner cutting), and they have a new Samsung Galaxy M series to compete directly against the Chinese OEMs. The Chinese OEMs are no longer merely making good copies, they genuinely compete with the best other brands, and are doing real "firsts".
    Its amazing what you can do if you nick everybodies trade secrets (allegedly).
    It’s not even just the products, they’ve basically ripped off Apple’s design for a shop. Coming to a city near you soon.
    image
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Only now you fear that they will continue to not make a decision?

    May: can-kicker extraordinaire. Not so great for the country as PM, but there you go.

    People are critical of May can kicking

    But maybe if she knew MPs wouldn’t make a decision until the last minute it is the right strategy?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    If she “can’t forgive” the U.K. then she’s not going to be a very good foreign minister is she?

    But her anguish seems to be because of the “damage to our political project”
This discussion has been closed.