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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th

Overnight I have been amongst a number of punters betting on the Betfair Brexit market that the UK WILL leave the EU on March 29th.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,957
    edited January 30
    I don't think I buy this guy's reasoning. He's saying,

    The important point is that it is the first step in taking the Tory party towards something that might be feasible.

    But they're not. It's just continuing denial. They're *further* from something feasible, because they've united the entire party in denial. The ERG still aren't anywhere near supporting what TMay was actually able to negotiate, and even if they were somehow able to translate what they just passed into something actionable *and* by some miracle get the EU to agree to it, it's not clear that *even then* the ERG and DUP would all vote for it; There are signs that some of them are just playing for time.

    A better argument is from the other end: The opposition Remainers finally got Jeremy Corbyn on board with a strategy, and the opposition is as united as it's ever going to be, but they still don't have the numbers to pull off an alternative. So maybe some of the opposition MPs will ultimately suck it up and vote for the deal. There's definitely a good rational argument that they should do that, but at this point I see zero evidence that any of them are considering it.
  • On the contrary, 13 Labour MPs and 3 Independents voted against the Cooper amendment last night. They are signalling that they will vote for May's deal when push comes to shove. As in 1972 Labour votes will see the deal home.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,957

    On the contrary, 13 Labour MPs and 3 Independents voted against the Cooper amendment last night. They are signalling that they will vote for May's deal when push comes to shove. As in 1972 Labour votes will see the deal home.

    13 Labour MPs and 3 Independents isn't nothing, but TMay lost the vote on an actual achievable thing by 230. She's not going to get a deal through with just Dennis Skinners: She needs either Coopers or Rees-Moggs.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,553

    On the contrary, 13 Labour MPs and 3 Independents voted against the Cooper amendment last night. They are signalling that they will vote for May's deal when push comes to shove. As in 1972 Labour votes will see the deal home.

    Not sure that people like Dennis Skinner and Ronnie Campbell can be relied upon to vote for the deal.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,066
    Massively disappointed in Parliament this morning. Gutting that as many as 310 MPs are happy to vote for No Deal.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,195
    As funny as it would be to see the likes of Jezza, Boris, Rees-Mogg and the DUP meekly capitulating and telling us all what a splendid thing Theres’s Deal was all along, it’s not going to happen. They just need the EU to hold it’s nerve and No Deal here we come.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,039
    rkrkrk said:

    Massively disappointed in Parliament this morning. Gutting that as many as 310 MPs are happy to vote for No Deal.

    May be the represent people who disagree with you?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Life imitates art and the Muppet Show comes to town.... starring your local MP
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,993

    Life imitates art and the Muppet Show comes to town.... starring your local MP

    I object.

    That remark is unfair to muppets.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,066
    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Massively disappointed in Parliament this morning. Gutting that as many as 310 MPs are happy to vote for No Deal.

    May be the represent people who disagree with you?
    I'm fine with people voting to leave the EU. Its a position I disagree with, but fair enough that they wanted to prioritise immigration and sovereignty over economics.

    But most of those MPs don't even want No Deal! They're voting to put party ahead of country. The likes of Rudd, Hammond etc. believe no deal would be very damaging and yet won't vote their conscience.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,730

    Life imitates art and the Muppet Show comes to town.... starring your local MP

    To be fair to my local MP she's always been consistent; No Deal, 'Just Leaving" and everything will be OK.

    Cuckoo, deluded, but consistent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,993
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Massively disappointed in Parliament this morning. Gutting that as many as 310 MPs are happy to vote for No Deal.

    May be the represent people who disagree with you?
    I'm fine with people voting to leave the EU. Its a position I disagree with, but fair enough that they wanted to prioritise immigration and sovereignty over economics.

    But most of those MPs don't even want No Deal! They're voting to put party ahead of country. The likes of Rudd, Hammond etc. believe no deal would be very damaging and yet won't vote their conscience.
    And the whole Labour Party?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,268
    The problem with the prediction isn't the outcome but the timing. Leavinf with some sort of deal based on May's is quite possible. Whether it is actually possible for us to leave to the original timetable is another matter.

    I think the government knows a delay is inevitable but politically cannot yet afford to say so. It hopes either that a delay will be forced upon it or, more likely, to get away with it at the last minute when it will seem less of a betrayal, particularly as the destination will by then probably have been resolved.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    ydoethur said:

    Life imitates art and the Muppet Show comes to town.... starring your local MP

    I object.

    That remark is unfair to muppets.
    :)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Life imitates art and the Muppet Show comes to town.... starring your local MP

    To be fair to my local MP she's always been consistent; No Deal, 'Just Leaving" and everything will be OK.

    Cuckoo, deluded, but consistent.
    The very definition of muppetry :D
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,409
    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,730

    Life imitates art and the Muppet Show comes to town.... starring your local MP

    To be fair to my local MP she's always been consistent; No Deal, 'Just Leaving" and everything will be OK.

    Cuckoo, deluded, but consistent.
    The very definition of muppetry :D
    She's got a bit of a history of strange behaviour; treating the Israeli Defence Force as something which needed Overseas Aid, for example.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,066
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Massively disappointed in Parliament this morning. Gutting that as many as 310 MPs are happy to vote for No Deal.

    May be the represent people who disagree with you?
    I'm fine with people voting to leave the EU. Its a position I disagree with, but fair enough that they wanted to prioritise immigration and sovereignty over economics.

    But most of those MPs don't even want No Deal! They're voting to put party ahead of country. The likes of Rudd, Hammond etc. believe no deal would be very damaging and yet won't vote their conscience.
    And the whole Labour Party?
    The Labour party overwhelmingly voted against No Deal.
    Those that voted in favour were a small number, and I think probably did so for genuine reasons.

    The remainer Tory MPs think No Deal is a disaster. Yet they still voted for it to help the Tory party, help their careers, because they couldn't bear voting with Labour or some other reason I don't understand.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,500
    So .. the important news from last night is that Man City lost, Man Utd could only draw, Fulham beat Brighton, … anything else of note happen ?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,474
    edited January 30
    Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...

    Perhaps interesting though that a few people (including Irish Foreign Sec) have been citing the need for approval of the European Parliament as a reason why they couldn't shift even if they wanted to. Effectively claiming that they have no more flexibility than the UK Govt because of the "veto" powers of their "own" M(E)Ps...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,136
    My conclusion, FWIW, is the same as Mike's and indeed the Betfair market. The odds on timeous departure have improved slightly as a result of yesterday's votes. The biggest risk against is the simple practicalities of getting all the required legislation through (and not just at our end, the EU has to amend a lot of legislation if it is to continue to apply to the UK during the transitional period and much of that legislation was passed in framework form meaning that it forms a part of the substantive law of the various countries).

    Leaving with a deal does seem more likely if a long way from nailed on but a technical delay of 3 months or so to sort out the mechanics looks the most likely of all. That would make this bet a loser.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,599
    alex. said:

    Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...

    No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,148
    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,268
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
    Yep.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,474

    alex. said:

    Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...

    No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
    If that were true now, it won't be any less true in 2.5 years? I wouldn't expect the UK to do any more preparation for no deal than they have thus far. And in the mean time we would have had 2 years of UK firms relocating because of uncertainty that any trade negotiations (under threat of no deal) would end any differently second time around.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,730
    edited January 30
    If I was high up in the EU, and wanting to get on with all sorts of things I would NOT be a happy bunny this morning.

    There's going to be a 'discussion' with someone tin-eared, which is going to be a complete waste of my time, and is solely for her to be able to claim that we're unhelpful. It was their bloody idea in the first place!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,409
    DavidL said:

    My conclusion, FWIW, is the same as Mike's and indeed the Betfair market. The odds on timeous departure have improved slightly as a result of yesterday's votes. The biggest risk against is the simple practicalities of getting all the required legislation through (and not just at our end, the EU has to amend a lot of legislation if it is to continue to apply to the UK during the transitional period and much of that legislation was passed in framework form meaning that it forms a part of the substantive law of the various countries).

    Leaving with a deal does seem more likely if a long way from nailed on but a technical delay of 3 months or so to sort out the mechanics looks the most likely of all. That would make this bet a loser.

    Yes, I have a smaller bet on the next quarter to cover that possibility, so am green up to end June.

    Though, like @SO, I think we are headed to No Deal on 29th March. Just because something is stupid, it doesn't mean that it will not happen. The ERG are driving in this game of chicken, May is just a passenger now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,409
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...

    No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
    If that were true now, it won't be any less true in 2.5 years? I wouldn't expect the UK to do any more preparation for no deal than they have thus far. And in the mean time we would have had 2 years of UK firms relocating because of uncertainty that any trade negotiations (under threat of no deal) would end any differently second time around.
    I agree, the implicit reason that the Final FTA will be softer than the WA, will push the brinkmanship.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,518
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
    Yes. The other risk to Mike’s bet, and it’s a big risk, is that some delay is needed to do everything mechanical needed. It is needed,but would it be granted?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 229

    alex. said:

    Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...

    No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
    Absolutely. No Deal will be over much quicker than a US shutdown as the effects will be far more damaging and direct. There will then be a deal, wholly on the EU’s terms.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,599
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...

    No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
    If that were true now, it won't be any less true in 2.5 years? I wouldn't expect the UK to do any more preparation for no deal than they have thus far. And in the mean time we would have had 2 years of UK firms relocating because of uncertainty that any trade negotiations (under threat of no deal) would end any differently second time around.
    2 years of UK firms relocating would in itself leave us better prepared for no deal than we are now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,057
    Good morning, everyone.

    Whoever it was (Mr. Meeks?) who posted about uneven or bad deals not sticking may well be right. If May's deal gets nodded through at the last minute, it won't resolve much. In true May style, it'll kick the can.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,908
    Something was said on Coffee house shots which crossed my mind. The Conservative party have a Brexit policy they can mostly unite around, which is what you need for an election.

    Although the EU are probably going to say no pretty soon... more emphatically than they already have.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,730
    Any chance of JRM's office in Dublin being the site of a demonstration?
  • Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
    There is going to be a GE very soon. Mrs May needs to have delivered on the Referendum or the Conservative party will implode a la 1997. Amber Rudd knows if she flounces now she is even less to be a concern for Mrs May after said GE.

    Most of the Conservative party hopes we leave with WA in place but leaving us unquestionably the priority.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,136
    To take a relatively simple example that I had to deal with recently, the Brussels Regulation regulates jurisdiction and the enforcement of decrees of Member States in other Member States. It concludes:

    "This Regulation is binding in its entirety and directly applicable in the Member States in accordance with the Treaty establishing the European Community."

    So far we are concerned under the EU Withdrawal Act this will remain a part of our law notwithstanding this provision but what about the law of all other Member States? If I am trying to enforce a Scottish decree in their country can I use the simplified provisions of the regulation and have the safeguard that it provides which is that "Under no circumstances may the foreign judgment be reviewed as to its substance" or do my clients have to relitigate the matter again in the MS (in which case they will not litigate in Scotland in the first place and possibly not litigate at all if the costs and difficulties are too great)?

    What is required in hundreds of provisions the definition of MS will have to be varied to read "and the UK". This has been done on some agreements with Switzerland for example but it requires doing. The BoE document issued last month had a series of traffic lights highlighting the areas where this had not been done by the EU or its MSs in respect of financial services. I am not aware of progress on this but it indicated that UK based insurance products may not be enforceable in the EU in the local courts (we had again made the converse provision).

    There are fall backs and work arounds. In the example given there is the Brussels Convention to which we remain a party which is similar. But there is really quite a lot to do and the faffing about over the last few months has not helped.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,148
    edited January 30

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
    Yes. The other risk to Mike’s bet, and it’s a big risk, is that some delay is needed to do everything mechanical needed. It is needed,but would it be granted?
    I'm certain it would to accommodate the agreed WTA and avoid a crash out.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,345

    Any chance of JRM's office in Dublin being the site of a demonstration?
    Why not fly there and start it ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,409
    edited January 30

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
    Yes. The other risk to Mike’s bet, and it’s a big risk, is that some delay is needed to do everything mechanical needed. It is needed,but would it be granted?
    We know that an extension needs every EU member (including UK) to support it. Can this be an executive decision, or does it need to pass 28 legislatures?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661
    There's a majority of MPs that have clung to a dream since June 2016 - that, somehow, they could overturn the will of the majority and keep us from leaving the EU. Most of them have been re-elected since the Referendum under manifestos that pledged their party would implement Brexit. They said they needed to "honour the vote" (as with even Anna Soubry's 2017 electioneering leaflet, published on here recently). But it was not the outcome these Dreamer Remainers deeply desired. They had crossed their fingers behind their backs as they mouthed the words. They had a number of hopes - revocation, extension, second vote. Yesterday started to drive home that their dreams were just that.

    They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.

    May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.

    And it crushes their dream.

    But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried. About their health. About their food. Jobs are being threatened. Jobs are being lost. Prosperity is peeling away. And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.

    This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.

    And as you do, realise you're not the only ones who had a dream. Others of us had dreams too. We dreamt that Brexit would be better executed than this. On both sides. That the EU would be pragmatic, would seek sensible compromise. Would not be prepared to close down trade and bring recession upon its remaining members, all in the name of clinging to a backstop it constantly repeats it does not want, will not need.

    Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,345
    gilets jaunes

    big debate in France on use of plastic bullets ( LBD 40 system ) which have caused lots of injuries and where the riot police seem a bit trigger happy

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/30/01016-20190130ARTFIG00006-interdire-le-lbd-40-les-arguments-des-pro-et-des-anti.php
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,268
    Trump can't even spell Global Warming
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,087

    SNIP

    Ummm, you do know it's the ERG that refused to vote for the deal, and will not vote for it next time either, right?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,268
    DavidL said:

    To take a relatively simple example that I had to deal with recently, the Brussels Regulation regulates jurisdiction and the enforcement of decrees of Member States in other Member States. It concludes:

    "This Regulation is binding in its entirety and directly applicable in the Member States in accordance with the Treaty establishing the European Community."

    So far we are concerned under the EU Withdrawal Act this will remain a part of our law notwithstanding this provision but what about the law of all other Member States? If I am trying to enforce a Scottish decree in their country can I use the simplified provisions of the regulation and have the safeguard that it provides which is that "Under no circumstances may the foreign judgment be reviewed as to its substance" or do my clients have to relitigate the matter again in the MS (in which case they will not litigate in Scotland in the first place and possibly not litigate at all if the costs and difficulties are too great)?

    What is required in hundreds of provisions the definition of MS will have to be varied to read "and the UK". This has been done on some agreements with Switzerland for example but it requires doing. The BoE document issued last month had a series of traffic lights highlighting the areas where this had not been done by the EU or its MSs in respect of financial services. I am not aware of progress on this but it indicated that UK based insurance products may not be enforceable in the EU in the local courts (we had again made the converse provision).

    There are fall backs and work arounds. In the example given there is the Brussels Convention to which we remain a party which is similar. But there is really quite a lot to do and the faffing about over the last few months has not helped.

    Lawyers are going to make tons from Brexit and the cases are going to drag on for years.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,148

    There's a majority of MPs that have clung to a dream since June 2016 - that, somehow, they could overturn the will of the majority and keep us from leaving the EU. Most of them have been re-elected since the Referendum under manifestos that pledged their party would implement Brexit. They said they needed to "honour the vote" (as with even Anna Soubry's 2017 electioneering leaflet, published on here recently). But it was not the outcome these Dreamer Remainers deeply desired. They had crossed their fingers behind their backs as they mouthed the words. They had a number of hopes - revocation, extension, second vote. Yesterday started to drive home that their dreams were just that.

    They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.

    May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.

    And it crushes their dream.

    But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried. About their health. About their food. Jobs are being threatened. Jobs are being lost. Prosperity is peeling away. And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.

    This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.

    And as you do, realise you're not the only ones who had a dream. Others of us had dreams too. We dreamt that Brexit would be better executed than this. On both sides. That the EU would be pragmatic, would seek sensible compromise. Would not be prepared to close down trade and bring recession upon its remaining members, all in the name of clinging to a backstop it constantly repeats it does not want, will not need.

    Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.

    Very nicely written. But it's a dream too. Lots of twists and turns to come.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,324
    The ERG are stringing May along. Yes, some of them will finally thrown in their hand when she comes back from EU with nothing but a tweek to the PA. But most won't. They now live and breath for the pure air of No Deal.

    There are not enough Labour rebels to get May's deal over the line, unless I am missing something.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661
    Scott_P said:

    SNIP

    Ummm, you do know it's the ERG that refused to vote for the deal, and will not vote for it next time either, right?
    And you do know that in the great scheme of things, their numbers are immaterial. They represent maybe one eighth of the House of Commons. They can be hung out to dry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,373
    edited January 30
    By way of distraction from the Brexit nonsense...

    Feeling quite cheerful about laying Gabbard:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/29/tulsi-gabbard-2020-election-1134055

    And the Democratic field continues to thin:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/427559-garcetti-wont-run-for-president

    And Harris continues to appear the front runner:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/29/cnn-town-hall-kamala-harris-1135735
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,345
    Italy continues its hard line on immigration by refusing to accept german rescue boats unless the other EU countries agree to accept the refugees

    https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/30/italia/sea-watch-lo-sbarco-pi-vicino-cinque-paesi-ue-aprono-allitalia-dQGQHOMKcODBgXLLFSRNxH/pagina.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,087

    And you do know that in the great scheme of things, their numbers are immaterial. They represent maybe one eighth of the House of Commons. They can be hung out to dry.

    ROFLMAO
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,268

    There's a majority of MPs that have clung to a dream since June 2016 - that, somehow, they could overturn the will of the majority and keep us from leaving the EU. Most of them have been re-elected since the Referendum under manifestos that pledged their party would implement Brexit. They said they needed to "honour the vote" (as with even Anna Soubry's 2017 electioneering leaflet, published on here recently). But it was not the outcome these Dreamer Remainers deeply desired. They had crossed their fingers behind their backs as they mouthed the words. They had a number of hopes - revocation, extension, second vote. Yesterday started to drive home that their dreams were just that.

    They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.

    May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.

    And it crushes their dream.

    But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried. About their health. About their food. Jobs are being threatened. Jobs are being lost. Prosperity is peeling away. And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.

    This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.

    And as you do, realise you're not the only ones who had a dream. Others of us had dreams too. We dreamt that Brexit would be better executed than this. On both sides. That the EU would be pragmatic, would seek sensible compromise. Would not be prepared to close down trade and bring recession upon its remaining members, all in the name of clinging to a backstop it constantly repeats it does not want, will not need.

    Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.

    An improvement on your earlier glib head-in-the-sand ComicalMark stuff, to be sure.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,104
    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
    Yes. The other risk to Mike’s bet, and it’s a big risk, is that some delay is needed to do everything mechanical needed. It is needed,but would it be granted?
    We know that an extension needs every EU member (including UK) to support it. Can this be an executive decision, or does it need to pass 28 legislatures?
    It's done at the council level
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,324

    Scott_P said:

    SNIP

    Ummm, you do know it's the ERG that refused to vote for the deal, and will not vote for it next time either, right?
    And you do know that in the great scheme of things, their numbers are immaterial. They represent maybe one eighth of the House of Commons. They can be hung out to dry.
    By whom?

    imho Jezza will not back a May deal. He wants Brexit and he wants a No Deal version that can be labelled 'Tory Chaos'.

    Some of his MPs will rebel. But enough?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,345
    Scott_P said:
    I was watching Cameron do just the same thing on BBC2 the other night.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,957
    edited January 30

    gilets jaunes

    big debate in France on use of plastic bullets ( LBD 40 system ) which have caused lots of injuries and where the riot police seem a bit trigger happy

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/30/01016-20190130ARTFIG00006-interdire-le-lbd-40-les-arguments-des-pro-et-des-anti.php

    This is the great thing about middle-aged white men going to protests, the media suddenly care what the police do to demonstrators.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661
    Scott_P said:

    And you do know that in the great scheme of things, their numbers are immaterial. They represent maybe one eighth of the House of Commons. They can be hung out to dry.

    ROFLMAO
    Up to your usual standard of tweet-repeat dialogue.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,087

    What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.

    Danny Fink's column in the Times this morning is instructive. As are the comments BTL
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,409

    Italy continues its hard line on immigration by refusing to accept german rescue boats unless the other EU countries agree to accept the refugees

    https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/30/italia/sea-watch-lo-sbarco-pi-vicino-cinque-paesi-ue-aprono-allitalia-dQGQHOMKcODBgXLLFSRNxH/pagina.html

    Quite right. German boats should land in Germany.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,104



    This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.

    But the deal passing doesn't end this; do you think on the 30th of March everyone is going to shake hands and forget about it ?

    The ERG are still going to hate the deal, May will go and in June there will be a new leader. The pressure to renegotiate will build.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,324
    Beth:


    "Chaotic Brexit will cost the Conservative government dear."

    https://news.sky.com/story/a-chaotic-brexit-will-cost-the-conservatives-dearly-11621964
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,459
    The EU is in a dilemma of its own making. Tell us what you want was their mantra, to avoid having to be seen to be totally obstructive.

    Now May somehow has contrived to do so. Not that it matters because the EU thinks it's the UK's fault for being silly enough to consult with their voters by calling an unnecessary referendum. They will have no answer other than 'non'.

    Yes, it's all a game, a blame-game. The EU doesn't do democracy anyway. Its a dream, a political dream which has to be kept on track despite the voters. Don't wake up the voters, let them slumber on into unification.

    The BBC2 documentary showed nothing new, because we knew it anyway. I have no ill-will towards the EU, it's an honourable dream, but I never liked the means.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,087

    Up to your usual standard of tweet-repeat dialogue.

    As ever, I aspire to the rhetorical magnificence of "Fuck off. Please, just fuck off"
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,477
    edited January 30

    There's a majority of MPs that have clung to a dream since June 2016 - that, somehow, they could overturn the will of the majority and keep us from leaving the EU. Most of them have been re-elected since the Referendum under manifestos that pledged their party would implement Brexit. They said they needed to "honour the vote" (as with even Anna Soubry's 2017 electioneering leaflet, published on here recently). But it was not the outcome these Dreamer Remainers deeply desired. They had crossed their fingers behind their backs as they mouthed the words. They had a number of hopes - revocation, extension, second vote. Yesterday started to drive home that their dreams were just that.

    They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.

    May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.

    And it crushes their dream.

    But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried. About their health. About their food. Jobs are being threatened. Jobs are being lost. Prosperity is peeling away. And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.

    This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.

    And as you do, realise you're not the only ones who had a dream. Others of us had dreams too. We dreamt that Brexit would be better executed than this. On both sides. That the EU would be pragmatic, would seek sensible compromise. Would not be prepared to close down trade and bring recession upon its remaining members, all in the name of clinging to a backstop it constantly repeats it does not want, will not need.

    Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.

    I dont see how you can expect people to put their name to a deal that will damage the country and include unacceptable calculated risks. If other people want to do this, let them do it in their name and win a majority.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    So they’ll leave the border as it is now. Meanwhile, the Irish American lobby is stirring ...


  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,345
    Foxy said:

    Italy continues its hard line on immigration by refusing to accept german rescue boats unless the other EU countries agree to accept the refugees

    https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/30/italia/sea-watch-lo-sbarco-pi-vicino-cinque-paesi-ue-aprono-allitalia-dQGQHOMKcODBgXLLFSRNxH/pagina.html

    Quite right. German boats should land in Germany.
    lol

    Ill put you down as a Lega probable
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,268

    What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.

    I suggest those aren't mutually exclusive outcomes?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661

    Scott_P said:

    SNIP

    Ummm, you do know it's the ERG that refused to vote for the deal, and will not vote for it next time either, right?
    And you do know that in the great scheme of things, their numbers are immaterial. They represent maybe one eighth of the House of Commons. They can be hung out to dry.
    By whom?

    imho Jezza will not back a May deal. He wants Brexit and he wants a No Deal version that can be labelled 'Tory Chaos'.

    Some of his MPs will rebel. But enough?

    Jezza is Hard Deal Brexit's Bessy Mate. He could call for a free vote of Labour MPs on May's Deal. Vote for, against, abstain - no repurcussions. He could say he is doing to allow those in his party who want to end the fear around medicines, fear around food, fear around jobs to end those fears. He could come out of it a statesman.

    And the people who would vote against May's Deal - they would be the selfish Remainer Dreamers and the selfish ERG. Neither should be politically a problem for him. Drives a wedge throught the ranks of Tory MPs, who might well split into two parties. It drives a wedge between himself and the holdout Remainers like Chuka that can only strengthen his hand, as they are flung even further to the margins of his own party.


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,877
    Scott_P said:

    What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.

    Danny Fink's column in the Times this morning is instructive. As are the comments BTL
    Care to give us a favour for those of us who pay for the FT instead?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661
    Scott_P said:

    Up to your usual standard of tweet-repeat dialogue.

    As ever, I aspire to the rhetorical magnificence of "Fuck off. Please, just fuck off"
    It seems just as applicable to you today as it ever did.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,345
    edited January 30

    So they’ll leave the border as it is now. Meanwhile, the Irish American lobby is stirring ...


    and yet when it comes to policing some far off war he;ll be one of the first to ask us to send troops
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,497
    What the Commons rejected last night was EUref2 with a Remain option by voting down the Cooper amendment which would have enabled Article 50 to be extended to enable it and the Grieve amendment to allow it to be put before the House. However by voting for the Spelman amendment the Commons also voted down No Deal.

    That still leaves Brexit with a Deal the likely outcome, either May's Deal as is (assuming no EU concession on the backstop) or Corbyn's proposed permanent Customs Union Deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661
    Jonathan said:

    There's a majority of MPs that have clung to a dream since June 2016 - that, somehow, they could overturn the will of the majority and keep us from leaving the EU. Most of them have been re-elected since the Referendum under manifestos that pledged their party would implement Brexit. They said they needed to "honour the vote" (as with even Anna Soubry's 2017 electioneering leaflet, published on here recently). But it was not the outcome these Dreamer Remainers deeply desired. They had crossed their fingers behind their backs as they mouthed the words. They had a number of hopes - revocation, extension, second vote. Yesterday started to drive home that their dreams were just that.

    They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.

    May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.

    And it crushes their dream.

    But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried. About their health. About their food. Jobs are being threatened. Jobs are being lost. Prosperity is peeling away. And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.

    This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.

    And as you do, realise you're not the only ones who had a dream. Others of us had dreams too. We dreamt that Brexit would be better executed than this. On both sides. That the EU would be pragmatic, would seek sensible compromise. Would not be prepared to close down trade and bring recession upon its remaining members, all in the name of clinging to a backstop it constantly repeats it does not want, will not need.

    Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.

    I dont see how you can expect people to put their name to a deal that will damage the country and include unacceptable calculated risks. If other people want to do this, let them do it in their name and win a majority.
    Fine. Let them own No Deal then. No calculated risk there....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,087
    Tezza renegotiates with the EU...

    image
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,957

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
    Yes. The other risk to Mike’s bet, and it’s a big risk, is that some delay is needed to do everything mechanical needed. It is needed,but would it be granted?
    I think it would, if the deal has been passed I don't see that there's a downside for anybody. The next parliamentary term doesn't start until July, so adding a couple of months wouldn't mess anything up particularly.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203

    So they’ll leave the border as it is now. Meanwhile, the Irish American lobby is stirring ...


    and yet when it comes to policing some far off war he;ll be one of the first to ask us to send troops

    Could well be. But so what?

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,586
    PROJECT FEAR , vol XXV

    "Irish food group Greencore is prepared to airlift key ingredients such as rocket and spinach to the UK in the event of a hard Brexit, according to chief executive Patrick Coveney."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,268

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.

    Good value in betting terms.

    May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
    Yes. The other risk to Mike’s bet, and it’s a big risk, is that some delay is needed to do everything mechanical needed. It is needed,but would it be granted?
    I think it would, if the deal has been passed I don't see that there's a downside for anybody. The next parliamentary term doesn't start until July, so adding a couple of months wouldn't mess anything up particularly.
    Yes. As I said below, once a deal is agreed, the political risk to the government from a delay reduces considerably.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,453

    Jonathan said:

    There's a majority of MPs that have clung to a dream since June 2016 - that, somehow, they could overturn the will of the majority and keep us from leaving the EU. Most of them have been re-elected since the Referendum under manifestos that pledged their party would implement Brexit. They said they needed to "honour the vote" (as with even Anna Soubry's 2017 electioneering leaflet, published on here recently). But it was not the outcome these Dreamer Remainers deeply desired. They had crossed their fingers behind their backs as they mouthed the words. They had a number of hopes - revocation, extension, second vote. Yesterday started to drive home that their dreams were just that.

    They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.

    May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.

    And it crushes their dream.

    But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried... And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.

    This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.

    And as you do, realise you're not the only ones who had a dream. Others of us had dreams too. We dreamt that Brexit would be better executed than this. On both sides. That the EU would be pragmatic, would seek sensible compromise. Would not be prepared to close down trade and bring recession upon its remaining members, all in the name of clinging to a backstop it constantly repeats it does not want, will not need.

    Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.

    I dont see how you can expect people to put their name to a deal that will damage the country and include unacceptable calculated risks. If other people want to do this, let them do it in their name and win a majority.
    Fine. Let them own No Deal then. No calculated risk there....
    Yup. If we crash out to no deal, it will be the fault of the remain ultras. A truly great post, by the way.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    IanB2 said:

    What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.

    I suggest those aren't mutually exclusive outcomes?

    Fair point. They are buggered every way you look at it. Good. But it’s not worth the No Deal Brexit they’re intent on delivering.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,459
    Jezza should be in a good position here. He could sit on the fence and let the chaos work for him, but he can't resist having a good rant and he veers off into incoherence. The Tories are lucky in their enemies.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,345

    So they’ll leave the border as it is now. Meanwhile, the Irish American lobby is stirring ...


    and yet when it comes to policing some far off war he;ll be one of the first to ask us to send troops

    Could well be. But so what?

    then interest of state start to swing in to play and compromises get made.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,497

    Scott_P said:

    SNIP

    Ummm, you do know it's the ERG that refused to vote for the deal, and will not vote for it next time either, right?
    And you do know that in the great scheme of things, their numbers are immaterial. They represent maybe one eighth of the House of Commons. They can be hung out to dry.
    By whom?

    imho Jezza will not back a May deal. He wants Brexit and he wants a No Deal version that can be labelled 'Tory Chaos'.

    Some of his MPs will rebel. But enough?

    Corbyn does not really want No Deal as the polling shows it would lead to mass defections of Labour Remainers to the LDs unless he concedes to EUref2 and would also be difficult to manage as PM.

    What Corbyn really wants is permanent Customs Union and he may yet get it if the 17 Tory MPs who gave ruling out No Deal a majority last night join Labour to vote for a permanent Customs Union as a last resort to avoid No Deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    I don't think I buy this guy's reasoning. He's saying,

    The important point is that it is the first step in taking the Tory party towards something that might be feasible.

    But they're not. It's just continuing denial. They're *further* from something feasible, because they've united the entire party in denial. The ERG still aren't anywhere near supporting what TMay was actually able to negotiate, and even if they were somehow able to translate what they just passed into something actionable *and* by some miracle get the EU to agree to it, it's not clear that *even then* the ERG and DUP would all vote for it; There are signs that some of them are just playing for time.

    A better argument is from the other end: The opposition Remainers finally got Jeremy Corbyn on board with a strategy, and the opposition is as united as it's ever going to be, but they still don't have the numbers to pull off an alternative. So maybe some of the opposition MPs will ultimately suck it up and vote for the deal. There's definitely a good rational argument that they should do that, but at this point I see zero evidence that any of them are considering it.
    pretty decent summary.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,087

    Care to give us a favour for those of us who pay for the FT instead?

    The gist of the column is that to succeed, political parties must be broad coalitions, and that deselecting Tory MPs who have not signed up to the death cult will harm the long term prospects for the party.

    The comments largely reflect the view of the cult.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,661
    HYUFD said:

    What the Commons rejected last night was EUref2 with a Remain option by voting down the Cooper amendment which would have enabled Article 50 to be extended to enable it and the Grieve amendment to allow it to be put before the House. However by voting for the Spelman amendment the Commons also voted down No Deal.

    That still leaves Brexit with a Deal the likely outcome, either May's Deal as is (assuming no EU concession on the backstop) or Corbyn's proposed permanent Customs Union Deal

    Spellman's Amendment told the Govt. "We would like you to make us a sandwich. But no, we don't have any bread. Or butter. Or filling. But we'd really like a sandwich....."
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,477
    edited January 30

    Jonathan said:

    There's a majority of MPs that have clung to a dream since June 2016 - that, somehow, they could overturn the will of the majority and keep us from leaving the EU. Most of them have been re-elected since the Referendum under manifestos that pledged their party would implement Brexit. They said they needed to "honour the vote" (as with even Anna Soubry's 2017 electioneering leaflet, published on here recently). But it was not the outcome these Dreamer Remainers deeply desired. They had crossed their fingers behind their backs as they mouthed the words. They had a number of hopes - revocation, extension, second vote. Yesterday started to drive home that their dreams were just that.

    They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.

    May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.

    And it crushes their dream.

    But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried. About their health. About their food. Jobs are being threatened. Jobs are being lost. Prosperity is peeling away. And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.

    Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.

    I dont see how you can expect people to put their name to a deal that will damage the country and include unacceptable calculated risks. If other people want to do this, let them do it in their name and win a majority.
    Fine. Let them own No Deal then. No calculated risk there....
    Well we’re screwed either way. It’s a question of degrees. May has offered nothing, absolutely nothing to attract votes.

    And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.

    I don’t see how anyone can lend May their support right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    So they’ll leave the border as it is now. Meanwhile, the Irish American lobby is stirring ...


    It's just as stupid and false point about reneging today as it was yesterday, but it hardly helps us.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,345
    edited January 30

    PROJECT FEAR , vol XXV

    "Irish food group Greencore is prepared to airlift key ingredients such as rocket and spinach to the UK in the event of a hard Brexit, according to chief executive Patrick Coveney."

    from memory Patrick Coveney is the brother of Simon Coveney the Irish Foreign Minister

  • eekeek Posts: 3,433

    IanB2 said:

    What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.

    I suggest those aren't mutually exclusive outcomes?

    Fair point. They are buggered every way you look at it. Good. But it’s not worth the No Deal Brexit they’re intent on delivering.

    If they split now at least one half of the party would survive, when they split it will be from an election fall out the likes of which we have never seen before...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,497
    edited January 30

    What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.

    17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.

    It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).

    Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,268
    Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,063

    So .. the important news from last night is that Man City lost, Man Utd could only draw, Fulham beat Brighton, … anything else of note happen ?

    No.
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