Well we’re screwed either way. It’s a question of degrees. May has offered nothing, absolutely nothing to attract votes.
And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like she her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.
I don’t see how anyone can lend May their suppor right now.
They are not lending May their support. They are lending their support to those worried about medicines. About food. About jobs.
Well we’re screwed either way. It’s a question of degrees. May has offered nothing, absolutely nothing to attract votes.
And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like she her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.
I don’t see how anyone can lend May their suppor right now.
They are not lending May their support. They are lending their support to those worried about medicines. About food. About jobs.
Simple then. If you care about jobs. Don’t Brexit.
The EU is in a dilemma of its own making. Tell us what you want was their mantra, to avoid having to be seen to be totally obstructive.
Now May somehow has contrived to do so. Not that it matters because the EU thinks it's the UK's fault for being silly enough to consult with their voters by calling an unnecessary referendum. They will have no answer other than 'non'.
Yes, it's all a game, a blame-game. The EU doesn't do democracy anyway. Its a dream, a political dream which has to be kept on track despite the voters. Don't wake up the voters, let them slumber on into unification.
The BBC2 documentary showed nothing new, because we knew it anyway. I have no ill-will towards the EU, it's an honourable dream, but I never liked the means.
Where's the dilemma? What the UK is asking for is *still* an incomprehensible mess, and that's without even trying to accommodate what the EU side wants. There's no blame game they need to play, and even if there was people in Britain are generally painfully aware that the government's negotiating is been heavily characterized by clown shoes.
The solution is to repeat for the 10th time that the withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation. They only have to type as far as "the w", autocomplete will take care of the rest.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
Indeed. And for that reason I don't think HYUFD is correct - if there were a majority who wanted to work against the Govt, they would have voted for Grieve or Cooper.
The theoretical ruling out of no deal is very different from the real division of the party.
The fact they haven't split the party already suggests there is still a majority for May if she can get a modicum of compromise from the EU.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
I suggest those aren't mutually exclusive outcomes?
Fair point. They are buggered every way you look at it. Good. But it’s not worth the No Deal Brexit they’re intent on delivering.
If they split now at least one half of the party would survive, when they split it will be from an election fall out the likes of which we have never seen before...
The only realistic way the Tories split is if Labour splits too e.g. if we go to No Deal Brexit, Corbyn still rules out EUref2 with a Remain option and Umunna, Leslie, Soubry, Grieve etc all defect an masse and form a new En Marche style party with the LDs.
Of course of May revoked Brexit without a referendum a new Farage style party could overtake the Tories and the Tories also split but May is not going to do that against the wishes of the vast majority of her party
There's a majority of MPs that have clung to a dream since June 2016 - that, somehow, they could overturn the will of the majority and keep us from leaving the EU. Most of them have been re-elected since the Referendum under manifestos that pledged their party would implement Brexit. They said they needed to "honour the vote" (as with even Anna Soubry's 2017 electioneering leaflet, published on here recently). But it was not the outcome these Dreamer Remainers deeply desired. They had crossed their fingers behind their backs as they mouthed the words. They had a number of hopes - revocation, extension, second vote. Yesterday started to drive home that their dreams were just that.
They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.
May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.
And it crushes their dream.
But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried. About their health. About their food. Jobs are being threatened. Jobs are being lost. Prosperity is peeling away. And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.
This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.
And as you do, realise you're not the only ones who had a dream. Others of us had dreams too. We dreamt that Brexit would be better executed than this. On both sides. That the EU would be pragmatic, would seek sensible compromise. Would not be prepared to close down trade and bring recession upon its remaining members, all in the name of clinging to a backstop it constantly repeats it does not want, will not need.
Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.
It would be nice if we could call accept our dream outcomes woukd not occur. A lot more than merely dreamainers need to do so though. And Mps just keep delaying, it's frightening.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
Not necessarily, Corbyn would likely become PM but Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition most likely on a hard Brexit ticket
On topic, this is my top Brexit bet. I think May plans to leave on schedule, Deal or No Deal. I cannot see the EU extending and the ERG would go apoplectic if we try.
Good value in betting terms.
May won't go No Deal under any circumstances. Rudd et al know this which is why they continue to support her. It's her deal or No Brexit. Lots of twists and turns yet to come.
Yes. The other risk to Mike’s bet, and it’s a big risk, is that some delay is needed to do everything mechanical needed. It is needed,but would it be granted?
I know there's been plenty dumb in all this but surely they would see no reason not to do so in that circumstance? What advantage to them?
Well we’re screwed either way. It’s a question of degrees. May has offered nothing, absolutely nothing to attract votes.
And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like she her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.
I don’t see how anyone can lend May their suppor right now.
They are not lending May their support. They are lending their support to those worried about medicines. About food. About jobs.
Simple then. If you care about jobs. Don’t Brexit.
Simple then. If you don't care about democracy.
I'll put you down as a Remainer Dreamer. And a No Deal-enabler.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
Not necessarily, Corbyn would likely become PM but Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition most likely on a hard Brexit ticket
Congratulations at least for coming up with a scenario even more horrifying than our current predicament.
Well we’re screwed either way. It’s a question of degrees. May has offered nothing, absolutely nothing to attract votes.
And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like she her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.
I don’t see how anyone can lend May their suppor right now.
They are not lending May their support. They are lending their support to those worried about medicines. About food. About jobs.
Simple then. If you care about jobs. Don’t Brexit.
Simple then. If you don't care about democracy.
I'll put you down as a Remainer Dreamer. And a No Deal-enabler.
I'm reliably informed that No Deal is what we voted for.
Well we’re screwed either way. It’s a question of degrees. May has offered nothing, absolutely nothing to attract votes.
And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like she her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.
I don’t see how anyone can lend May their suppor right now.
They are not lending May their support. They are lending their support to those worried about medicines. About food. About jobs.
I don't think it likely, but if they did it doesn't matter what May woukd attempt to claim. She's gone soon anyway.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
Indeed. And for that reason I don't think HYUFD is correct - if there were a majority who wanted to work against the Govt, they would have voted for Grieve or Cooper.
The theoretical ruling out of no deal is very different from the real division of the party.
The fact they haven't split the party already suggests there is still a majority for May if she can get a modicum of compromise from the EU.
If May's Deal passes then it is not an issue. They will still give May's Deal another chance which is why not all the 17 voted for Grieve and Cooper.
However if May's Deal fails again those 17 Tory MPs made absolutely clear they will vote with the opposition rather than allow No Deal and that likely means permanent Customs Union as Margot James also came out for this week
Well we’re screwed either way. It’s a question of degrees. May has offered nothing, absolutely nothing to attract votes.
And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like she her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.
I don’t see how anyone can lend May their suppor right now.
They are not lending May their support. They are lending their support to those worried about medicines. About food. About jobs.
Simple then. If you care about jobs. Don’t Brexit.
Simple then. If you don't care about democracy.
I'll put you down as a Remainer Dreamer. And a No Deal-enabler.
Any Brexit damages jobs and the economy. Brexiteers voted for that, it’s a little rich to go begging for votes to support a particular brand of damage.
You mention democracy. If you believe in that, the deal was defeated. Let it go. Why not have a government find a genuine compromise. The EU is open to Norway. Go for that. By giving something to others rather than threatening them with no deal the government might have more success.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
Indeed. And for that reason I don't think HYUFD is correct - if there were a majority who wanted to work against the Govt, they would have voted for Grieve or Cooper.
The theoretical ruling out of no deal is very different from the real division of the party.
The fact they haven't split the party already suggests there is still a majority for May if she can get a modicum of compromise from the EU.
Cabinet has been given precisely the same promise that big business got from May two years ago: "keep it to yourself, but no deal isn't going to happen". The only question is whether she has been bluffing to everyone.
What the Commons rejected last night was EUref2 with a Remain option by voting down the Cooper amendment which would have enabled Article 50 to be extended to enable it and the Grieve amendment to allow it to be put before the House. However by voting for the Spelman amendment the Commons also voted down No Deal.
That still leaves Brexit with a Deal the likely outcome, either May's Deal as is (assuming no EU concession on the backstop) or Corbyn's proposed permanent Customs Union Deal
Spellman's Amendment told the Govt. "We would like you to make us a sandwich. But no, we don't have any bread. Or butter. Or filling. But we'd really like a sandwich....."
Because the government and its supporters denied them the means to make the sandwich by voting down the Grieve and Cooper amendments.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
Indeed. And for that reason I don't think HYUFD is correct - if there were a majority who wanted to work against the Govt, they would have voted for Grieve or Cooper.
The theoretical ruling out of no deal is very different from the real division of the party.
The fact they haven't split the party already suggests there is still a majority for May if she can get a modicum of compromise from the EU.
Relying on the EU to prevent the Tories falling apart is an interesting idea!
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
Not necessarily, Corbyn would likely become PM but Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition most likely on a hard Brexit ticket
Congratulations at least for coming up with a scenario even more horrifying than our current predicament.
A Boris v Corbyn battle will be interesting, not least to see if it forces the creation of an anti Brexit SDP2
Strange as it may seem because Mrs May is a poor politician, she has a fig leaf. The EU didn't understand why Cameron wanted to consult the voters. Porquoi? C'est un silly risk. .
She can claim the mantle of democracy. Yes, she'll get bugger all, but Tusk's response was typical (what's Polish for f-off?), he speaks for 27 countries without need for consultation.
A united Europe needs one leader to operate effectively, that's why the present half-way house is inefficient. It needs one Parliament and one all-encompassing country otherwise local 'demagogues' will do silly things like consult the voters. What next? Populist ideas that spread dissention?
I believe it will be unstable until that aim is achieved. We either go along or we get off the bus while we still can.
What was true last night is true this morning: the Tories will now deliver and own a No Deal Brexit or they will fall to pieces. No other outcomes are possible. Here’s hoping it’s the latter.
17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to reject No Deal Brexit last night, giving the Government its only defeat and meaning Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible
If that happens, the Tories will tear themselves apart.
Not necessarily, Corbyn would likely become PM but Boris would take over as Leader of the Opposition most likely on a hard Brexit ticket
Congratulations at least for coming up with a scenario even more horrifying than our current predicament.
A Boris v Corbyn battle will be interesting, not least to see if it forces the creation of an anti Brexit SDP2
Suppose May gets nothing from the EU (or a 'compromise' that's worse than the current state of her deal). It returns to Parliament for a vote. Labour opposes. Conservative Leavers oppose. In that scenario, surely there's a significant chance it doesn't pass?
Well we’re screwed either way. It’s a question of degrees. May has offered nothing, absolutely nothing to attract votes.
And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like she her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.
I don’t see how anyone can lend May their suppor right now.
They are not lending May their support. They are lending their support to those worried about medicines. About food. About jobs.
I don't think it likely, but if they did it doesn't matter what May woukd attempt to claim. She's gone soon anyway.
No doubt. A few months, tops, whatever the outcome.
I remember the idea that there's a clash between our type of legal system and the Napoleonic one that's as bitter as the language debate. Perhaps the legal people on here can clarify.
I also remember being dragged into a European debate in Brussels to talk about it, I forgot to take off my name badge when I'd finished a meeting on some arcane piece of science.
Despite my truthful denials of any knowledge of British law, they must have thought I was being modest. I made my escape by making all up the answers, but what is this issue that seemed to fascinate them?
Strange as it may seem because Mrs May is a poor politician, she has a fig leaf. The EU didn't understand why Cameron wanted to consult the voters. Porquoi? C'est un silly risk. .
She can claim the mantle of democracy. Yes, she'll get bugger all, but Tusk's response was typical (what's Polish for f-off?), he speaks for 27 countries without need for consultation.
Claim the mantle of democracy to who? Who do you think she's convincing? The people who think the EU is being outrageously mean already hate it. Weirdly, they're the same people who despite hating it, apparently previously thought it was going to be unbelievably generous, but they haven't thought that for a while.
A united Europe needs one leader to operate effectively, that's why the present half-way house is inefficient. It needs one Parliament and one all-encompassing country otherwise local 'demagogues' will do silly things like consult the voters. What next? Populist ideas that spread dissention?
I believe it will be unstable until that aim is achieved. We either go along or we get off the bus while we still can.
That may turn out to be true, but the current process suggests the opposite. Their decision-making process works. The leaders got together with the Commission and talked out a common negotiating position, they found something that worked for them all and looked after the countries with most at stake, and they've been unified in sticking with it, much to the dismay of the anti-EU people in Britain who'd thought they could play the different member states off against each other.
Sometimes the voters following one particular local politician will try to force the rest of the EU to do something that's not in the interests of voters outside their own locality, and the EU just holds firm, sticks together and waits for them to give in. Tsipras had a referendum conclusively establishing that the Greeks wanted the Germans to pay for their pensions, they said no and he gave up. Britain wants to leave? Their call, but the EU will stick up for the people who are staying in the EU.
In fairness, I doubt the ERG actually thought the EU would blink. The whole renegotiation stuff was just a feint, allowing them to dump the responsibility for No Deal on Theresa and the EU.
As far as Betfair is concerned, I don't think the "Leave by 29 March" market offers the best value. If it's true that we're getting to the point where there isn't time to reach a deal and legislate for it by 29 March, there would have to be a short extension to leave with a deal.
If that's so, "Leave by 29 March" should be close to equivalence with "Leave No Deal on 29 March", and the odds on offer in that market are better.
I think the best way of backing the deal option is laying "Parliament to pass deal: Not before 30 March". That way you win if the deal is agreed at the eleventh hour and the EU gives an extension for the legislation.
So Rees-Mogg has now booted the notion that last night's votes somehow offered Theresa's Deal salvation into a cocked hat.
The theory is that Spelman has shown HoC will not allow No Deal.
But Cooper failing shows that they don't want to actual will the means of stopping Mogg.
I think I have this right.
Anyway, must go and do some work.
Basically agree but: 1) there may be some Tory remainders who don't feel its quite five minutes to midnight, so they can vote for an extension later. 2) they may be wrong.
Strange as it may seem because Mrs May is a poor politician, she has a fig leaf. The EU didn't understand why Cameron wanted to consult the voters. Porquoi? C'est un silly risk. .
She can claim the mantle of democracy. Yes, she'll get bugger all, but Tusk's response was typical (what's Polish for f-off?), he speaks for 27 countries without need for consultation.
Claim the mantle of democracy to who? Who do you think she's convincing? The people who think the EU is being outrageously mean already hate it. Weirdly, they're the same people who despite hating it, apparently previously thought it was going to be unbelievably generous, but they haven't thought that for a while.
A united Europe needs one leader to operate effectively, that's why the present half-way house is inefficient. It needs one Parliament and one all-encompassing country otherwise local 'demagogues' will do silly things like consult the voters. What next? Populist ideas that spread dissention?
I believe it will be unstable until that aim is achieved. We either go along or we get off the bus while we still can.
That may turn out to be true, but the current process suggests the opposite. Their decision-making process works. The leaders got together with the Commission and talked out a common negotiating position, they found something that worked for them all and looked after the countries with most at stake, and they've been unified in sticking with it, much to the dismay of the anti-EU people in Britain who'd thought they could play the different member states off against each other.
Sometimes the voters following one particular local politician will try to force the rest of the EU to do something that's not in the interests of voters outside their own locality, and the EU just holds firm, sticks together and waits for them to give in. Tsipras had a referendum conclusively establishing that the Greeks wanted the Germans to pay for their pensions, they said no and he gave up. Britain wants to leave? Their call, but the EU will stick up for the people who are staying in the EU.
+1. Leavers have been in denial about the EU from the start, expecting it to fall apart, others would follow us in leaving, we could play off the various national interests, the mere hint of no deal and a word from German car manufacturers would force big concessions, all the 'they need us' stuff...and it's all been wrong. Compared with the UK the EU has been remarkably quick to make its decisions, which it has set out openly and transparently and stuck to with enviable unity and consistency. While we have flailed about from one flawed idea to another.
Mr. B2, the UK side has certainly been vacillating and feeble, largely due to May.
However, it's worth noting the EU perspective is demented.
They want to avoid a hard border in Ireland. The backstop is designed to do this. The backstop appears unacceptable to the UK Parliament. The EU refuses to discuss changes. This makes a hard border the likely outcome. By clinging to the solution they're going to guarantee it isn't implemented but the problem is.
Or consider the sequencing nonsense. They want withdrawal then trade. We should never have agreed, because it's irrational. How can we sort the Irish border if we don't know the trading relationship? We only know the trading relationship, and hence the border situation, when we know the trade deal. The EU has refused to discuss the trade deal whilst demanding an open border.
Edited extra bit: also worth adding that the EU has asked the UK to make plain what it wants, then refuses to discuss any changes.
"Weirdly, they're the same people who despite hating it, apparently previously thought it was going to be unbelievably generous,"
As I've said, it's all a blame game. No one with two brain cells to rub together thought the EU would be anything but obstructive. They don't understand why anyone would want to leave in the first place, and if you don't understand the people across the table, negotiation is all about blame.
"You asked the voters? Then it is all your fault."
I'm sure Mrs May wouldn't have made that silly mistake, but she was left with the parcel. That's why she has some sympathy from even some Labour voters, particularly women. Pandora didn't open the box, it was her male colleague.
To be fair, having been in Dublin a few weeks back, everyone from taxi drivers and random strangers through media outlets was very alive to the risks of Brexit and it was clearly on everyone's mind. And, as far as they can, preparations are being made.
We don't seem to be anywhere the same level of understanding and concern. Like our politicians we are mostly in denial.
I remember the idea that there's a clash between our type of legal system and the Napoleonic one that's as bitter as the language debate. Perhaps the legal people on here can clarify.
I also remember being dragged into a European debate in Brussels to talk about it, I forgot to take off my name badge when I'd finished a meeting on some arcane piece of science.
Despite my truthful denials of any knowledge of British law, they must have thought I was being modest. I made my escape by making all up the answers, but what is this issue that seemed to fascinate them?
We prefer common law relying on judicial precedent and think it’s quite wrong for elected politicians to make laws. Something like that anyway.
Strange as it may seem because Mrs May is a poor politician, she has a fig leaf. The EU didn't understand why Cameron wanted to consult the voters. Porquoi? C'est un silly risk. .
She can claim the mantle of democracy. Yes, she'll get bugger all, but Tusk's response was typical (what's Polish for f-off?), he speaks for 27 countries without need for consultation.
A united Europe needs one leader to operate effectively, that's why the present half-way house is inefficient. It needs one Parliament and one all-encompassing country otherwise local 'demagogues' will do silly things like consult the voters. What next? Populist ideas that spread dissention?
I believe it will be unstable until that aim is achieved. We either go along or we get off the bus while we still can.
That may turn out to be true, but the current process suggests the opposite. Their decision-making process works. The leaders got together with the Commission and talked out a common negotiating position, they found something that worked for them all and looked after the countries with most at stake, and they've been unified in sticking with it, much to the dismay of the anti-EU people in Britain who'd thought they could play the different member states off against each other.
Sometimes the voters following one particular local politician will try to force the rest of the EU to do something that's not in the interests of voters outside their own locality, and the EU just holds firm, sticks together and waits for them to give in. Tsipras had a referendum conclusively establishing that the Greeks wanted the Germans to pay for their pensions, they said no and he gave up. Britain wants to leave? Their call, but the EU will stick up for the people who are staying in the EU.
+1. Leavers have been in denial about the EU from the start, expecting it to fall apart, others would follow us in leaving, we could play off the various national interests, the mere hint of no deal and a word from German car manufacturers would force big concessions, all the 'they need us' stuff...and it's all been wrong. Compared with the UK the EU has been remarkably quick to make its decisions, which it has set out openly and transparently and stuck to with enviable unity and consistency. While we have flailed about from one flawed idea to another.
That's because the EU is undemocratic and the UK is - for all its sins - showing that it is democratic. Speed, unity, consistency - some of the attributes of any authoritarian regime. There's no checks and balances there, no accountability, no electorate to have to worry about. Just a few men in a room, making all the decisions.
We go through this time and time again. May has a poundshop version of Steve Jobs reality distortion field. She comes up with a plan in no10, she talks it up, builds hype, people warn her that it won’t work, she ignores the warnings, caries on, gets defeated in an embarrassing way, creates a crisis, inflates the crisis so that people back her clinging to nanny, survives and then goes away and comes up with another plan. Rinse and repeat.
So Rees-Mogg has now booted the notion that last night's votes somehow offered Theresa's Deal salvation into a cocked hat.
The theory is that Spelman has shown HoC will not allow No Deal.
But Cooper failing shows that they don't want to actual will the means of stopping Mogg.
I think I have this right.
Anyway, must go and do some work.
An extension to Article 50 is only really needed for EUref2 to avoid a post Brexit rejoin Remain campaign risking the Euro and Schengen etc as well, permanent Customs Union as Juncker confirmed at the weekend would enable a renegotiation of the Deal
Why is the world not more afraid of a no-deal Brexit? In part, this may be the UK's good reputation coming back to haunt it. The UK has been for decades, if not centuries, a stable, safe and easy place to do business. It used to enjoy a reputation as a canny negotiator on the world stage and an advocate for pro-business policies.
Many national leaders simply cannot conceive this partner - whom they had for so long regarded as relentlessly competent, if a little self-interested - can genuinely be on the verge of such a massive act of self-sabotage. Given the rise of populism across the world and the numerous antics of Donald Trump, the world's politicians can also be forgiven for being distracted.
The time for such distraction is over: The rest of the world should be far more afraid of a no-deal Brexit than it has been so far. Yes, this situation would be more damaging to Britain than to anyone else, but it is hard to see how a no-deal could take place that would not launch a global economic crisis and perhaps one to rival last decade's financial crash in scale.
The Spelman vote was interestingly close. Rudd et al voted against it even though she is vehemently against No Deal and sort of threatened to resign if there was No Deal. My interpretation is that Mrs May has reassured Rudd et al that she will not allow a No Deal. I'm sure she won't. The EU know this too - that she is playing a game with the ERG/DUP. The ERG/DUP must suspect that too and today are saying that the fact they supported her yesterday doesn't mean they will support her tomorrow. Some of the ERG are consciously driving a No Deal so will not support her deal in the end no matter what. She knows that too. So this is the Tory game. In the end Mrs May will say to the ERG, its my deal or No Brexit. And it might turn out to be No Brexit. She will say the same to the DUP and, unlike the ERG, they may prefer No Brexit.
On the other side, I think the Labour leadership is torn between a) engineering a No Deal by not supporting any Tory deal (even with a CU) so it wrecks the Tories for a generation and gives a Corbyn government a majority (outside the EU) to do what it wants to do, and b) cooperating around a CU to get a softer deal over the line (with EU support) to avoid the damage a No Deal would do to the poor and under-privileged. That would give the Tories a victory so I suspect Corbyn will go for a) i.e. party advantage and viva la revolution.
This gives Mrs May a dilemma. She is up against a tough lot in the DUP and they will call her "No Brexit" bluff. The ERG, on the other hand, are a naive lot and will probably cave except for one or two. So she needs about 10 Labour votes to offset the DUP. Yesterday 14 Labour MPs supported her. So it's close. If she loses her deal at the end, she'll move into No Brexit mode and possibly support a 2nd referendum to resolve it - her deal or Remain.
There are few certainties so plenty of betting opportunities.
Well I’m convinced no deal and people’s vote are 100 per cent dead. The great remain daydream, where likes of Lamy and Cable on unicornback whilst whole nation applauds, finally died last night.
Maybe not 29th March due to time pressure, but we leave under May’s Deal shortly after.
Several reasons why I am 100% sure.
1. EU always blink. EU have form as long as 54 arms joined together in a great armipede on giving way, blinking, fudging, backing down to allow deals to happen and the least aggressive outcome to occur. It’s what it does. It’s it’s DNA.
2. All the EU nations aren’t causing pain to their workers, businesses, families for the sake of the backstop. Republic of Ireland aren’t trashing their economy, raising unemployment for the sake of the backstop. The backstop is just fluff. It was just a ruse to keep UK in a sort of customs arrangement that would have been easiest most preferable arrangement all round. But it failed, now Ireland and EU recognise that failure and move to plan B. When the dust settles, and the books are written, ironically what killed the backstop were those people who actually believe in it, like Vince Cable and mass of Labour MPs voting against it alongside The leavers as they pursued a vain remain dream.
3. There doesn’t need to be any dramatic change whatsoever for the big climb down the ladders to actually happen. One nebulous idea and form of words that everyone will say will never be needed with simply be replaced by another, all it needs is everyone to claim “something has changed”, and down the ladders they come, and on goes Brexit.
Keep this post. I’m spot on. Only, you don’t really want to believe it, do you?
A united Europe needs one leader to operate effectively, that's why the present half-way house is inefficient. It needs one Parliament and one all-encompassing country otherwise local 'demagogues' will do silly things like consult the voters. What next? Populist ideas that spread dissention?
I believe it will be unstable until that aim is achieved. We either go along or we get off the bus while we still can.
That may turn out to be true, but the current process suggests the opposite. Their decision-making process works. The leaders got together with the Commission and talked out a common negotiating position, they found something that worked for them all and looked after the countries with most at stake, and they've been unified in sticking with it, much to the dismay of the anti-EU people in Britain who'd thought they could play the different member states off against each other.
Sometimes the voters following one particular local politician will try to force the rest of the EU to do something that's not in the interests of voters outside their own locality, and the EU just holds firm, sticks together and waits for them to give in. Tsipras had a referendum conclusively establishing that the Greeks wanted the Germans to pay for their pensions, they said no and he gave up. Britain wants to leave? Their call, but the EU will stick up for the people who are staying in the EU.
+1. Leavers have been in denial about the EU from the start, expecting it to fall apart, others would follow us in leaving, we could play off the various national interests, the mere hint of no deal and a word from German car manufacturers would force big concessions, all the 'they need us' stuff...and it's all been wrong. Compared with the UK the EU has been remarkably quick to make its decisions, which it has set out openly and transparently and stuck to with enviable unity and consistency. While we have flailed about from one flawed idea to another.
That's because the EU is undemocratic and the UK is - for all its sins - showing that it is democratic. Speed, unity, consistency - some of the attributes of any authoritarian regime. There's no checks and balances there, no accountability, no electorate to have to worry about. Just a few men in a room, making all the decisions.
Lol.
May still acts as if Brexit is something that must be settled to the satisfaction of the Conservative party first, and only then shared with the rest of Europe. The British public is at the very back of the queue.
"There are few certainties so plenty of betting opportunities."
I agree. Mrs May remains a Remainer at heart and she is a politician. So, if she had enough cover, there is a chance she'd pirouette and 'reluctantly' revoke. I doubt it makes any sense yet, but we're in interesting times.
I am full of optimism that a deal can be found between us and the EU. Here is the route.
Mrs May rides a fine Unicorn into Brussels, one that demands a legal change to the WA and the backstop, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the EU is willing to operate in.
Mr Barnier (or Mr Junker, if he is sober and able to stay in the saddle) rides into Brussels on a fine Unicorn saying there is no more negotiation of the WA, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the UK is willing to operate in.
Our Unicorns are equal.
Barnier (or Junker) and May dismount and have lunch.
The freed Unicorns find romance, love and produce a whole family of Unicorns that are so beguiling that the dumb stubborn humans realise that working together is the best solution.
We all get a free Unicorn and live happily ever after.
Well I’m convinced no deal and people’s vote are 100 per cent dead. The great remain daydream, where likes of Lamy and Cable on unicornback whilst whole nation applauds, finally died last night.
Maybe not 29th March due to time pressure, but we leave under May’s Deal shortly after.
Several reasons why I am 100% sure.
1. EU always blink. EU have form as long as 54 arms joined together in a great armipede on giving way, blinking, fudging, backing down to allow deals to happen and the least aggressive outcome to occur. It’s what it does. It’s it’s DNA.
2. All the EU nations aren’t causing pain to their workers, businesses, families for the sake of the backstop. Republic of Ireland aren’t trashing their economy, raising unemployment for the sake of the backstop. The backstop is just fluff. It was just a ruse to keep UK in a sort of customs arrangement that would have been easiest most preferable arrangement all round. But it failed, now Ireland and EU recognise that failure and move to plan B. When the dust settles, and the books are written, ironically what killed the backstop were those people who actually believe in it, like Vince Cable and mass of Labour MPs voting against it alongside The leavers as they pursued a vain remain dream.
3. There doesn’t need to be any dramatic change whatsoever for the big climb down the ladders to actually happen. One nebulous idea and form of words that everyone will say will never be needed with simply be replaced by another, all it needs is everyone to claim “something has changed”, and down the ladders they come, and on goes Brexit.
Keep this post. I’m spot on. Only, you don’t really want to believe it, do you?
1. Mrs May always blinks. She has form on this. The EU know she is bluffing.
2. The UK will not cause even greater pain to their workers, businesses, families for the sake of the backstop which almost no-one understands as it is only a problem to the DUP and a few headbangers in the ERG.
Keep this post. I’m spot on. Only, you don’t really want to believe it, do you?
On the other side, I think the Labour leadership is torn between a) engineering a No Deal by not supporting any Tory deal (even with a CU) so it wrecks the Tories for a generation and gives a Corbyn government a majority (outside the EU) to do what it wants to do, and b) cooperating around a CU to get a softer deal over the line (with EU support) to avoid the damage a No Deal would do to the poor and under-privileged. That would give the Tories a victory so I suspect Corbyn will go for a) i.e. party advantage and viva la revolution.
Corbyn whipped for the Cooper amendment. If we end up Brexiting on Labour terms like a customs union then I don't think that's much of a win for the Tories.
If Corbyn votes in favour of a No Deal Brexit he will be gone. He will have united the PLP, the unions and the membership against him.
Well I’m convinced no deal and people’s vote are 100 per cent dead. The great remain daydream, where likes of Lamy and Cable on unicornback whilst whole nation applauds, finally died last night.
Maybe not 29th March due to time pressure, but we leave under May’s Deal shortly after.
Several reasons why I am 100% sure.
1. EU always blink. EU have form as long as 54 arms joined together in a great armipede on giving way, blinking, fudging, backing down to allow deals to happen and the least aggressive outcome to occur. It’s what it does. It’s it’s DNA.
2. All the EU nations aren’t causing pain to their workers, businesses, families for the sake of the backstop. Republic of Ireland aren’t trashing their economy, raising unemployment for the sake of the backstop. The backstop is just fluff. It was just a ruse to keep UK in a sort of customs arrangement that would have been easiest most preferable arrangement all round. But it failed, now Ireland and EU recognise that failure and move to plan B. When the dust settles, and the books are written, ironically what killed the backstop were those people who actually believe in it, like Vince Cable and mass of Labour MPs voting against it alongside The leavers as they pursued a vain remain dream.
3. There doesn’t need to be any dramatic change whatsoever for the big climb down the ladders to actually happen. One nebulous idea and form of words that everyone will say will never be needed with simply be replaced by another, all it needs is everyone to claim “something has changed”, and down the ladders they come, and on goes Brexit.
Keep this post. I’m spot on. Only, you don’t really want to believe it, do you?
Lots of dots but you're joining them up all wrong.
I am full of optimism that a deal can be found between us and the EU. Here is the route.
Mrs May rides a fine Unicorn into Brussels, one that demands a legal change to the WA and the backstop, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the EU is willing to operate in.
Mr Barnier (or Mr Junker, if he is sober and able to stay in the saddle) rides into Brussels on a fine Unicorn saying there is no more negotiation of the WA, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the UK is willing to operate in.
Our Unicorns are equal.
Barnier (or Junker) and May dismount and have lunch.
The freed Unicorns find romance, love and produce a whole family of Unicorns that are so beguiling that the dumb stubborn humans realise that working together is the best solution.
We all get a free Unicorn and live happily ever after.
I am full of optimism that a deal can be found between us and the EU. Here is the route.
Mrs May rides a fine Unicorn into Brussels, one that demands a legal change to the WA and the backstop, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the EU is willing to operate in.
Mr Barnier (or Mr Junker, if he is sober and able to stay in the saddle) rides into Brussels on a fine Unicorn saying there is no more negotiation of the WA, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the UK is willing to operate in.
Our Unicorns are equal.
Barnier (or Junker) and May dismount and have lunch.
The freed Unicorns find romance, love and produce a whole family of Unicorns that are so beguiling that the dumb stubborn humans realise that working together is the best solution.
We all get a free Unicorn and live happily ever after.
I'm happy with May's deal, plus the public flogging of Jacob Rees-Mogg.
As I’ve been saying for a while, the idea that the US will do the UK any favours at all if we are perceived to have caused Ireland any kibd of harm is for the fairies. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially on the Democrat side. Presidential nomination candidates will also have to have a take on this.
1. EU always blink. EU have form as long as 54 arms joined together in a great armipede on giving way, blinking, fudging, backing down to allow deals to happen and the least aggressive outcome to occur. It’s what it does. It’s it’s DNA.
We're constantly reminded by Brexiteers of the EU's intransigence over Greece, it's often given as a prime reason why we should leave. So they don't always blink.
On the other side, I think the Labour leadership is torn between a) engineering a No Deal by not supporting any Tory deal (even with a CU) so it wrecks the Tories for a generation and gives a Corbyn government a majority (outside the EU) to do what it wants to do, and b) cooperating around a CU to get a softer deal over the line (with EU support) to avoid the damage a No Deal would do to the poor and under-privileged. That would give the Tories a victory so I suspect Corbyn will go for a) i.e. party advantage and viva la revolution.
Corbyn whipped for the Cooper amendment. If we end up Brexiting on Labour terms like a customs union then I don't think that's much of a win for the Tories.
If Corbyn votes in favour of a No Deal Brexit he will be gone. He will have united the PLP, the unions and the membership against him.
I agree that If we end up Brexiting on Labour terms like a customs union then it not that much of a win for the Tories. But voters will give a sigh of relief and give greater credit to the government than to Labour. It won't be seen as a win for Labour.
Corbyn won't vote in favour of a "No Deal" Brexit in any circumstances. He will let the ERG/DUP and a few Labour dissenters do the dirty work.
I hope you are right and that Corbyn chooses country over party.
Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...
No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
Absolutely. No Deal will be over much quicker than a US shutdown as the effects will be far more damaging and direct. There will then be a deal, wholly on the EU’s terms.
Indeed. And it will very likely be considerably worse for Britain than what is on offer now, which is itself worse than what was on offer with Cameron’s deal.
The longer British politicians play fantasy politics, the worse any deals we get will become and the greater the harm to the country.
Apparently the great Parliamentary “triumph” last night was to get members of the same political party to vote on the same side for a meaningless amendment. I mean, really, WTF!
We are heading for No Deal. We are trashing our reputation and relationships with our immediate neighbours. We are diminishing ourselves in the eye of the world, those parts of it which are bothering to give us any attention. And we are making the prospects for our country worse.
And all this because of a weak PM more concerned to keep her party together, an opportunistic Opposition Leaver unwilling to follow party policy and MPs too cowardly to act in the interests of the country.
As I’ve been saying for a while, the idea that the US will do the UK any favours at all if we are perceived to have caused Ireland any kibd of harm is for the fairies. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially on the Democrat side. Presidential nomination candidates will also have to have a take on this.
What I find utterly depressing is the concept that Ireland could under any circumstances regress into violence and troubles.
There are two democratic civilised free countries / nations / regions, with health care, education and all mod cons.
Nationalistic violence is a weapon that has no place in a civilised first world environment. That we are even discussing it, border or no border, shows the Irish on both sides are in hock to a really poor, negative, insulting, selfish, violent, criminal and frankly stupid cohort of people.
Has anyone seen the film Vice? I'm not a great cinemagoer and it doesn't exactly look date night material, but is it a rare example of a film about politics that's worth seeing?
Has anyone seen the film Vice? I'm not a great cinemagoer and it doesn't exactly look date night material, but is it a rare example of a film about politics that's worth seeing?
It was fun but more of a parody than reality in places.
Comments
The solution is to repeat for the 10th time that the withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation. They only have to type as far as "the w", autocomplete will take care of the rest.
The theoretical ruling out of no deal is very different from the real division of the party.
The fact they haven't split the party already suggests there is still a majority for May if she can get a modicum of compromise from the EU.
Of course of May revoked Brexit without a referendum a new Farage style party could overtake the Tories and the Tories also split but May is not going to do that against the wishes of the vast majority of her party
I'd like to wake up now please.
Automatic operation of law means it happens in 58 days unless something better is both agreed in the UK and signed off by the EU.
I'm struggling to see what this "something better" is.
I'll put you down as a Remainer Dreamer. And a No Deal-enabler.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47040731
However if May's Deal fails again those 17 Tory MPs made absolutely clear they will vote with the opposition rather than allow No Deal and that likely means permanent Customs Union as Margot James also came out for this week
No, permanent Customs Union looks more likely if May's Deal fails again
You mention democracy. If you believe in that, the deal was defeated. Let it go. Why not have a government find a genuine compromise. The EU is open to Norway. Go for that. By giving something to others rather than threatening them with no deal the government might have more success.
Strange as it may seem because Mrs May is a poor politician, she has a fig leaf. The EU didn't understand why Cameron wanted to consult the voters. Porquoi? C'est un silly risk. .
She can claim the mantle of democracy. Yes, she'll get bugger all, but Tusk's response was typical (what's Polish for f-off?), he speaks for 27 countries without need for consultation.
A united Europe needs one leader to operate effectively, that's why the present half-way house is inefficient. It needs one Parliament and one all-encompassing country otherwise local 'demagogues' will do silly things like consult the voters. What next? Populist ideas that spread dissention?
I believe it will be unstable until that aim is achieved. We either go along or we get off the bus while we still can.
Could be Mogg vs Jezza.
Indeed.
But it will be 30th March when they suddenly see this.
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1090530521233395712
Suppose May gets nothing from the EU (or a 'compromise' that's worse than the current state of her deal). It returns to Parliament for a vote. Labour opposes. Conservative Leavers oppose. In that scenario, surely there's a significant chance it doesn't pass?
I also remember being dragged into a European debate in Brussels to talk about it, I forgot to take off my name badge when I'd finished a meeting on some arcane piece of science.
Despite my truthful denials of any knowledge of British law, they must have thought I was being modest. I made my escape by making all up the answers, but what is this issue that seemed to fascinate them?
Sometimes the voters following one particular local politician will try to force the rest of the EU to do something that's not in the interests of voters outside their own locality, and the EU just holds firm, sticks together and waits for them to give in. Tsipras had a referendum conclusively establishing that the Greeks wanted the Germans to pay for their pensions, they said no and he gave up. Britain wants to leave? Their call, but the EU will stick up for the people who are staying in the EU.
But Cooper failing shows that they don't want to actual will the means of stopping Mogg.
I think I have this right.
Anyway, must go and do some work.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
"You shouldn't do that."
"Do you want to stop it?"
"No. Just criticise it when it happens."
If that's so, "Leave by 29 March" should be close to equivalence with "Leave No Deal on 29 March", and the odds on offer in that market are better.
I think the best way of backing the deal option is laying "Parliament to pass deal: Not before 30 March". That way you win if the deal is agreed at the eleventh hour and the EU gives an extension for the legislation.
"Fancy being Brexit Secretary?"
I couldn't do a worse job. Then again, perhaps I could.
Stick to breathlessly reporting every flat tyre experienced by a Bundeswehr G-Wagen.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1090531311154913280?s=21
However, it's worth noting the EU perspective is demented.
They want to avoid a hard border in Ireland. The backstop is designed to do this. The backstop appears unacceptable to the UK Parliament. The EU refuses to discuss changes. This makes a hard border the likely outcome. By clinging to the solution they're going to guarantee it isn't implemented but the problem is.
Or consider the sequencing nonsense. They want withdrawal then trade. We should never have agreed, because it's irrational. How can we sort the Irish border if we don't know the trading relationship? We only know the trading relationship, and hence the border situation, when we know the trade deal. The EU has refused to discuss the trade deal whilst demanding an open border.
Edited extra bit: also worth adding that the EU has asked the UK to make plain what it wants, then refuses to discuss any changes.
"Weirdly, they're the same people who despite hating it, apparently previously thought it was going to be unbelievably generous,"
As I've said, it's all a blame game. No one with two brain cells to rub together thought the EU would be anything but obstructive. They don't understand why anyone would want to leave in the first place, and if you don't understand the people across the table, negotiation is all about blame.
"You asked the voters? Then it is all your fault."
I'm sure Mrs May wouldn't have made that silly mistake, but she was left with the parcel. That's why she has some sympathy from even some Labour voters, particularly women. Pandora didn't open the box, it was her male colleague.
We don't seem to be anywhere the same level of understanding and concern. Like our politicians we are mostly in denial.
He'd be out of his depth in a puddle.
Why is the world not more afraid of a no-deal Brexit? In part, this may be the UK's good reputation coming back to haunt it. The UK has been for decades, if not centuries, a stable, safe and easy place to do business. It used to enjoy a reputation as a canny negotiator on the world stage and an advocate for pro-business policies.
Many national leaders simply cannot conceive this partner - whom they had for so long regarded as relentlessly competent, if a little self-interested - can genuinely be on the verge of such a massive act of self-sabotage. Given the rise of populism across the world and the numerous antics of Donald Trump, the world's politicians can also be forgiven for being distracted.
The time for such distraction is over: The rest of the world should be far more afraid of a no-deal Brexit than it has been so far. Yes, this situation would be more damaging to Britain than to anyone else, but it is hard to see how a no-deal could take place that would not launch a global economic crisis and perhaps one to rival last decade's financial crash in scale.
On the other side, I think the Labour leadership is torn between a) engineering a No Deal by not supporting any Tory deal (even with a CU) so it wrecks the Tories for a generation and gives a Corbyn government a majority (outside the EU) to do what it wants to do, and b) cooperating around a CU to get a softer deal over the line (with EU support) to avoid the damage a No Deal would do to the poor and under-privileged. That would give the Tories a victory so I suspect Corbyn will go for a) i.e. party advantage and viva la revolution.
This gives Mrs May a dilemma. She is up against a tough lot in the DUP and they will call her "No Brexit" bluff. The ERG, on the other hand, are a naive lot and will probably cave except for one or two. So she needs about 10 Labour votes to offset the DUP. Yesterday 14 Labour MPs supported her. So it's close. If she loses her deal at the end, she'll move into No Brexit mode and possibly support a 2nd referendum to resolve it - her deal or Remain.
There are few certainties so plenty of betting opportunities.
Maybe not 29th March due to time pressure, but we leave under May’s Deal shortly after.
Several reasons why I am 100% sure.
1. EU always blink. EU have form as long as 54 arms joined together in a great armipede on giving way, blinking, fudging, backing down to allow deals to happen and the least aggressive outcome to occur. It’s what it does. It’s it’s DNA.
2. All the EU nations aren’t causing pain to their workers, businesses, families for the sake of the backstop. Republic of Ireland aren’t trashing their economy, raising unemployment for the sake of the backstop. The backstop is just fluff. It was just a ruse to keep UK in a sort of customs arrangement that would have been easiest most preferable arrangement all round. But it failed, now Ireland and EU recognise that failure and move to plan B. When the dust settles, and the books are written, ironically what killed the backstop were those people who actually believe in it, like Vince Cable and mass of Labour MPs voting against it alongside The leavers as they pursued a vain remain dream.
3. There doesn’t need to be any dramatic change whatsoever for the big climb down the ladders to actually happen. One nebulous idea and form of words that everyone will say will never be needed with simply be replaced by another, all it needs is everyone to claim “something has changed”, and down the ladders they come, and on goes Brexit.
Keep this post. I’m spot on. Only, you don’t really want to believe it, do you?
May still acts as if Brexit is something that must be settled to the satisfaction of the Conservative party first, and only then shared with the rest of Europe. The British public is at the very back of the queue.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/29/may-brexit-brady-amendment
"There are few certainties so plenty of betting opportunities."
I agree. Mrs May remains a Remainer at heart and she is a politician. So, if she had enough cover, there is a chance she'd pirouette and 'reluctantly' revoke. I doubt it makes any sense yet, but we're in interesting times.
Digby Jones exemplifies all that is wrong with British business management.
Mrs May rides a fine Unicorn into Brussels, one that demands a legal change to the WA and the backstop, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the EU is willing to operate in.
Mr Barnier (or Mr Junker, if he is sober and able to stay in the saddle) rides into Brussels on a fine Unicorn saying there is no more negotiation of the WA, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the UK is willing to operate in.
Our Unicorns are equal.
Barnier (or Junker) and May dismount and have lunch.
The freed Unicorns find romance, love and produce a whole family of Unicorns that are so beguiling that the dumb stubborn humans realise that working together is the best solution.
We all get a free Unicorn and live happily ever after.
2. The UK will not cause even greater pain to their workers, businesses, families for the sake of the backstop which almost no-one understands as it is only a problem to the DUP and a few headbangers in the ERG.
Keep this post. I’m spot on. Only, you don’t really want to believe it, do you?
If Corbyn votes in favour of a No Deal Brexit he will be gone. He will have united the PLP, the unions and the membership against him.
Corbyn won't vote in favour of a "No Deal" Brexit in any circumstances. He will let the ERG/DUP and a few Labour dissenters do the dirty work.
I hope you are right and that Corbyn chooses country over party.
The longer British politicians play fantasy politics, the worse any deals we get will become and the greater the harm to the country.
Apparently the great Parliamentary “triumph” last night was to get members of the same political party to vote on the same side for a meaningless amendment. I mean, really, WTF!
We are heading for No Deal. We are trashing our reputation and relationships with our immediate neighbours. We are diminishing ourselves in the eye of the world, those parts of it which are bothering to give us any attention. And we are making the prospects for our country worse.
And all this because of a weak PM more concerned to keep her party together, an opportunistic Opposition Leaver unwilling to follow party policy and MPs too cowardly to act in the interests of the country.
There are two democratic civilised free countries / nations / regions, with health care, education and all mod cons.
Nationalistic violence is a weapon that has no place in a civilised first world environment. That we are even discussing it, border or no border, shows the Irish on both sides are in hock to a really poor, negative, insulting, selfish, violent, criminal and frankly stupid cohort of people.
If you go see there’s a mid credits scene.