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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Br

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    edited February 2019
    First.

    Surely that Robbins thing was deliberate, a bit like leaving notes visible when walking up Downing Street.
  • Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.
  • Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    I absolutely agree and only parts of the conversation were heard
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    Equally relevant is do (or would) Brussels believe that parliament would let her leave with no deal.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    philiph said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    Equally relevant is do (or would) Brussels believe that parliament would let her leave with no deal.
    Some journalism seems to be based on no evidence of conversation or any other facts these days.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    philiph said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    Equally relevant is do (or would) Brussels believe that parliament would let her leave with no deal.
    Still to see a plan for how they stop her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    edited February 2019
    We'll soon be out the other side of March (and hopefully Brexit) - bring on the tulips!

    https://marqueemark123.imgur.com/all/?third_party=1
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    philiph said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    Equally relevant is do (or would) Brussels believe that parliament would let her leave with no deal.
    Still to see a plan for how they stop her.
    What do you think of the new Cooper bill? Seems to have a couple of loopholes but it's probably the last chance to stop May if she is determined to drive over the cliff.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    tpfkar said:

    philiph said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    Equally relevant is do (or would) Brussels believe that parliament would let her leave with no deal.
    Still to see a plan for how they stop her.
    What do you think of the new Cooper bill? Seems to have a couple of loopholes but it's probably the last chance to stop May if she is determined to drive over the cliff.
    Haven't seen the detail yet. Will take a look.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited February 2019
    Anything for the party, that's May
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited February 2019
    Cue more outrage from the ERG death cult when they see alleged comments of Olly Robbins.

    The ERG and the thick drones who follow them have spent the last two years being outraged and angry on a regular basis .

    Just imagine if they had lost the EU ref .
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    nico67 said:

    Cue more outrage from the ERG death cult when they see alleged comments of Olly Robbins.

    The ERG and the thick drones who follow them have spent the last two years being outraged and angry on a regular basis .

    Just imagine if they had lost the EU ref .

    In the same way some Christians would be disappointed if Christ actually returned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Still think it's a bluff.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The Cooper Bill has less teeth but is more likely to win a majority .

    The key name on there is Caroline Spelman , she and Dromey put that no to no deal amendment which won a majority but she didn’t support the original Cooper amendment .

    She has already put her name on that now and isn’t one of the more pro Remain wing , she’s just really worried about no deal . It doesn’t put how long the extension might be , of course if May was even more demented than we thought she’d do something stupid like say can I have a week and the EU would tell her to do one .

    I think Cooper has realized it needs a good majority and it might also reduce the Labour rebels who voted against her previous amendment .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    blockquote class="Quote" rel="Cyclefree">
    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Here is another instance (I have withheld names but the case is a real one, and in fact still ongoing).

    A very prestigious institution hired as a Professor (in a science subject) someone who is a fundamentalist Christian. This individual had previously written a blog posting in which he described homosexuality as a sin.

    The institution is now facing calls to dismiss the Professor.

    There is no evidence that the Professor has treated gay students any differently from straight students.

    The Farron dilemma.
    Though in Farron's case it was rather relevant to his day-job.
    I thought Farron voted for gay rights throughout his time as leader. If so, what did he do wrong? Isn’t that the essence of tolerance - having a private view but voting in accordance with the policies of the party he led?
    Throughout his time as leader perhaps, but he was only leader for two years.

    He certainly didn't have a history of voting for gay rights. Probably the worst example is that he actually voted against outlawing discrimination on the basis of sexual preference.

    Ah, I didn’t know that.

    I can't speak for Tim Farron, but someone as liberal as Kenneth Clarke voted against the the Sexual Orientation Regulations, for fear that they would restrict free speech, and close Catholic adoption agencies.

    So did these adoption agencies close when the regulations passed?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Several years ago I was in a bar in Barbados watching Arsenal v Chelsea. As was Tony Blair.

    A friend of a friend who was a right-leaning journalist asked if he could use that for a story showing the human side of Blair, whereas he usually wrote anti pieces.

    I said no because if it had been a story showing Blair in a bad light I would also have refused.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    notme2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Cue more outrage from the ERG death cult when they see alleged comments of Olly Robbins.

    The ERG and the thick drones who follow them have spent the last two years being outraged and angry on a regular basis .

    Just imagine if they had lost the EU ref .

    In the same way some Christians would be disappointed if Christ actually returned.
    They're not even prepared for the meek. Let alone the Meeks!

    (just to be clear I think very highly of Mr Meeks, and I also have some limited regard for Christianity)



  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    They don't seem to think she will.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    Chris said:

    blockquote class="Quote" rel="Cyclefree">

    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Here is another instance (I have withheld names but the case is a real one, and in fact still ongoing).

    A very prestigious institution hired as a Professor (in a science subject) someone who is a fundamentalist Christian. This individual had previously written a blog posting in which he described homosexuality as a sin.

    The institution is now facing calls to dismiss the Professor.

    There is no evidence that the Professor has treated gay students any differently from straight students.

    The Farron dilemma.
    Though in Farron's case it was rather relevant to his day-job.
    I thought Farron voted for gay rights throughout his time as leader. If so, what did he do wrong? Isn’t that the essence of tolerance - having a private view but voting in accordance with the policies of the party he led?
    Throughout his time as leader perhaps, but he was only leader for two years.

    He certainly didn't have a history of voting for gay rights. Probably the worst example is that he actually voted against outlawing discrimination on the basis of sexual preference.

    Ah, I didn’t know that.
    I can't speak for Tim Farron, but someone as liberal as Kenneth Clarke voted against the the Sexual Orientation Regulations, for fear that they would restrict free speech, and close Catholic adoption agencies.

    So did these adoption agencies close when the regulations passed?

    Yes.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Floater said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    They don't seem to think she will.
    No sensible PM ever would. The only way she'd do it is if someone is paying her to bump Cameron up a place at the bottom end of the best PM league table.
  • Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?

    Business to business.

  • TOPPING said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Several years ago I was in a bar in Barbados watching Arsenal v Chelsea. As was Tony Blair.

    A friend of a friend who was a right-leaning journalist asked if he could use that for a story showing the human side of Blair, whereas he usually wrote anti pieces.

    I said no because if it had been a story showing Blair in a bad light I would also have refused.

    Yep - everyone deserves private space IMO. I don’t see how the journo could inow he got the full picture and it is potentially hugely explosive. Just seems unethical to me.


  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Endillion said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
    'of some 27 years standing'?

    This person is invented.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    kle4 said:

    Anything for the party, that's May

    She seems to see the destruction of the country as preferable to the a split in the Tory Party.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    They don't seem to think she will.
    No sensible PM ever would. The only way she'd do it is if someone is paying her to bump Cameron up a place at the bottom end of the best PM league table.
    I think it's impossible to predict what she'll do.

    It is within the bounds of possibility, she'll opt for No Deal.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    nico67 said:

    The Cooper Bill has less teeth but is more likely to win a majority .

    The key name on there is Caroline Spelman , she and Dromey put that no to no deal amendment which won a majority but she didn’t support the original Cooper amendment .

    She has already put her name on that now and isn’t one of the more pro Remain wing , she’s just really worried about no deal . It doesn’t put how long the extension might be , of course if May was even more demented than we thought she’d do something stupid like say can I have a week and the EU would tell her to do one .

    I think Cooper has realized it needs a good majority and it might also reduce the Labour rebels who voted against her previous amendment .

    Good spot on Spelman. This really is the last chance saloon. I think May trying to extend for a week is covered, as parliament can amend and this will be binding on May.

    Where I think there are loopholes are where the EU proposes an extension FIRST and if the EU proposes a different extension date and parliament agrees, I don't think Cooper has made that binding. But IANAL just a pedant. (are lawyers just well-paid pedants?)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    She seems to see the destruction of the country as preferable to the a split in the Tory Party.

    Those are not alternatives.

    Destroying the country will not see a united Tory party rewarded at the ballot box
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    They don't seem to think she will.
    No sensible PM ever would. The only way she'd do it is if someone is paying her to bump Cameron up a place at the bottom end of the best PM league table.
    I think it's impossible to predict what she'll do.

    It is within the bounds of possibility, she'll opt for No Deal.
    Not now. Not ever. Easy to talk it up as an outsider, impossible if you’re actually in charge.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?

    Business to business.

    Why did you post this?

    It's clearly crap.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    Scott_P said:

    She seems to see the destruction of the country as preferable to the a split in the Tory Party.

    Those are not alternatives.

    Destroying the country will not see a united Tory party rewarded at the ballot box
    Indeed not. The Tory Party probably cannot be saved in its current form whatever the Brexit outcome. But most MPs have not yet realised that this is the case.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    They don't seem to think she will.
    No sensible PM ever would. The only way she'd do it is if someone is paying her to bump Cameron up a place at the bottom end of the best PM league table.
    I think it's impossible to predict what she'll do.

    It is within the bounds of possibility, she'll opt for No Deal.
    All things are possible, and it could of course happen by accident. But there's a good chance she is bluffing, and another good chance that Parliament will finally get its act together and head her off at the pass. The 26% looks fair value to me, and not a particularly attractive betting opportunity.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    I'm a former consumer magazine editor, now a freelance writer inter alia.

    I'd have run it, without question. With great power comes great responsibility: someone as powerful as Robbins must have known the chances of being overheard.

    If it was someone without power leaking something important (say, an anecdote about a famous friend) in a way that could be traced back to them, I wouldn't. But Robbins has the fate of a nation in his hands and is paid accordingly.

    (The nearest I ever came was when the chief exec of a large public sector organisation, who I knew to be a bit loose-lipped, had been booked to give a speech at a club dinner. I went along and sat at the back of the room, notebook in hand. We got three massive exclusives out of it and he was a good sport when I next met him, possibly because he knew I chose not to quote him saying that a certain other quango "couldn't run a whelk stall"...)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    kle4 said:

    Anything for the party, that's May

    She seems to see the destruction of the country as preferable to the a split in the Tory Party.

    But no deal will destroy the Tories anyway . They have always been seen as the party of business and the economy . It would be like Labour suddenly saying let’s privatize the NHS.

    May only has bad choices left because she boxed herself in early. But it’s not just about the economy , people seem to assume the troubles in Northern Ireland are over but they’re still there bubbling below the surface . Can you imagine the furore there if not only they are taken out of the EU when they voted to Remain but on top of that were forced to accept no deal aswell.

    Would May want that on her conscience , the PM who trashed the UK economy , lit a fuse in NI and also boosted Scottish Independence .

  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?

    Business to business.

    Why did you post this?

    It's clearly crap.
    Both OGH and myself know who Southam is professionally, he's not talking crap, he's at the very top of his profession.
  • Ashley Young is a violent thug and deserves a ten game ban.

    I'll be amazed if this match finishes eleven a side.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    tpfkar said:

    nico67 said:

    The Cooper Bill has less teeth but is more likely to win a majority .

    The key name on there is Caroline Spelman , she and Dromey put that no to no deal amendment which won a majority but she didn’t support the original Cooper amendment .

    She has already put her name on that now and isn’t one of the more pro Remain wing , she’s just really worried about no deal . It doesn’t put how long the extension might be , of course if May was even more demented than we thought she’d do something stupid like say can I have a week and the EU would tell her to do one .

    I think Cooper has realized it needs a good majority and it might also reduce the Labour rebels who voted against her previous amendment .

    Good spot on Spelman. This really is the last chance saloon. I think May trying to extend for a week is covered, as parliament can amend and this will be binding on May.

    Where I think there are loopholes are where the EU proposes an extension FIRST and if the EU proposes a different extension date and parliament agrees, I don't think Cooper has made that binding. But IANAL just a pedant. (are lawyers just well-paid pedants?)
    Yes the names to look for are the ones who aren’t the usual suspects ! The issue with the previous Cooper amendment is it didn’t give enough cover to some Tories and also worried some Labour MPs in Leave seats . Although many would like to have seen this on Thursday , by giving May more time they can also now say we did everything possible , didn’t interfere with the negotiations and now have no real choice but to back this .
  • On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?

    Business to business.

    Why did you post this?

    It's clearly crap.

    Cheers!

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Occasionally in a negotiation someone on the other side will leave some notes or a folder in the room when they have a breakout.

    It’s always tempting to look, and always the wrong thing to do
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited February 2019
    Charles said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Occasionally in a negotiation someone on the other side will leave some notes or a folder in the room when they have a breakout.

    It’s always tempting to look, and always the wrong thing to do
    My favourite is when the other side send me their stuff via Microsoft Word with track changes enabled.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Omnium said:

    Endillion said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
    'of some 27 years standing'?

    This person is invented.
    Nah. He set up a specialist trade journal and ran it until recently
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Occasionally in a negotiation someone on the other side will leave some notes or a folder in the room when they have a breakout.

    It’s always tempting to look, and always the wrong thing to do
    My favourite is when the other side send me their stuff via Microsoft with track changes enabled.
    That’s fair game!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    TOPPING said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Several years ago I was in a bar in Barbados watching Arsenal v Chelsea. As was Tony Blair.

    A friend of a friend who was a right-leaning journalist asked if he could use that for a story showing the human side of Blair, whereas he usually wrote anti pieces.

    I said no because if it had been a story showing Blair in a bad light I would also have refused.
    Quite right too. Good for you. Not sure what the OP refers to but as a general principle, reporting private conversations that take place in the pub is off limits for any decent journalist. If your source wants to brief the information they will be happy to repeat it in the morning.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?

    Business to business.

    Why did you post this?

    It's clearly crap.
    Both OGH and myself know who Southam is professionally, he's not talking crap, he's at the very top of his profession.

    Indeed. He doesn’t make any secret of his identity I don’t think?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    The journalists I have known wouldn't have any problem publishing that conversation. Their job is to get the story. Which is not to say they have no scruples at all. They think a lot about what they write and how they write it, but they will publish. It's wearying being around them because you have to mind what you say all the time
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.

    No deal scenario - The commission is in disarray, Juncker has left and the new commission has not been appointed. So Herr Selymar steps up as the top EU bod. He is unequivocal "The Brits have left they need to lie in the bed they have made, solidarity for the remaining EU members."

    Merkel has just met with the bosses of Ford and Opel who have told her that all plants in Germany will close as their largest most profitable market is now not in the EU. GDP is forceast to drop 5%+ YoY in Germany this year.

    Merkel has requested emergency talks with the Prime Minister to try to salvage the dramatic drop in German goods exports to the UK.

    Am I a fiction writer or a non-fiction writer?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited February 2019

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    The second biggest pension story I was ever directly involved in hit the national press because the HR director of the organisation I was acting against was holding forth loudly in a bar within earshot of a journalist. To this day that organisation’s hierarchy think I leaked it.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Omnium said:

    Endillion said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
    'of some 27 years standing'?

    This person is invented.
    Er, no. This is trivially verifiable.

    He doesn’t even make a secret of his identity - he posts tweets of his on here under his real name.

    You must be completely ignorant to have missed this in all the years you have have been posting on PB.
  • Charles said:

    Omnium said:

    Endillion said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
    'of some 27 years standing'?

    This person is invented.
    Nah. He set up a specialist trade journal and ran it until recently

    Still do. They wouldn’t let me out!

  • On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.

    No deal scenario - The commission is in disarray, Juncker has left and the new commission has not been appointed. So Herr Selymar steps up as the top EU bod. He is unequivocal "The Brits have left they need to lie in the bed they have made, solidarity for the remaining EU members."

    Merkel has just met with the bosses of Ford and Opel who have told her that all plants in Germany will close as their largest most profitable market is now not in the EU. GDP is forceast to drop 5%+ YoY in Germany this year.

    Merkel has requested emergency talks with the Prime Minister to try to salvage the dramatic drop in German goods exports to the UK.

    Am I a fiction writer or a non-fiction writer?
    You sound like one of those people that said warnings about No Deal were Project Fear.

    So a fiction writer.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Omnium said:

    Endillion said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
    'of some 27 years standing'?

    This person is invented.
    Nah. He set up a specialist trade journal and ran it until recently

    Still do. They wouldn’t let me out!

    Earn out are fun aren’t they!
  • FF43 said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    The journalists I have known wouldn't have any problem publishing that conversation. Their job is to get the story. Which is not to say they have no scruples at all. They think a lot about what they write and how they write it, but they will publish. It's wearying being around them because you have to mind what you say all the time

    Yep - I guess it’s different in our part of the world. If someone was speaking directly to me I’d consider it on the record unless they said otherwise. But I would not report an overheard private conversation, though I might find other ways of using what I’d heard!

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I

    FF43 said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    The journalists I have known wouldn't have any problem publishing that conversation. Their job is to get the story. Which is not to say they have no scruples at all. They think a lot about what they write and how they write it, but they will publish. It's wearying being around them because you have to mind what you say all the time

    Yep - I guess it’s different in our part of the world. If someone was speaking directly to me I’d consider it on the record unless they said otherwise. But I would not report an overheard private conversation, though I might find other ways of using what I’d heard!

    I’m not a journalist although I do speak to them as deep background from time to time. The journos I have a relationship with would regard the Robbins story as gossip not a verifiable story. The immediate question is “why is he doing this”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    How many voters in the country would identify with a movement born in simultaneous aversion to Corbyn and Brexit? Could it be viable in an election? No one can be sure. The only way for rebellious MPs to find out is to admit that they have no better options, summon the courage, and try.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/12/deal-no-deal-labour-tories-brexit-may-corbyn
  • Lolz, Di Maria really doesn't like Manchester United or their fans does he?

    https://twitter.com/MiguelDelaney/status/1095431594888826883
  • On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.

    No deal scenario - The commission is in disarray, Juncker has left and the new commission has not been appointed. So Herr Selymar steps up as the top EU bod. He is unequivocal "The Brits have left they need to lie in the bed they have made, solidarity for the remaining EU members."

    Merkel has just met with the bosses of Ford and Opel who have told her that all plants in Germany will close as their largest most profitable market is now not in the EU. GDP is forceast to drop 5%+ YoY in Germany this year.

    Merkel has requested emergency talks with the Prime Minister to try to salvage the dramatic drop in German goods exports to the UK.

    Am I a fiction writer or a non-fiction writer?
    Cognitive dissonance would kick in. If it’s that bad then leavers would blame the EU and remainer fifth columnists. But it wouldn’t be that bad.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    _Anazina_ said:

    Omnium said:

    Endillion said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
    'of some 27 years standing'?

    This person is invented.
    Er, no. This is trivially verifiable.

    He doesn’t even make a secret of his identity - he posts tweets of his on here under his real name.

    You must be completely ignorant to have missed this in all the years you have have been posting on PB.
    "You must be completely ignorant to have missed this in all the years you have have been posting on PB."

    I'm sure you're right. How unpleasantly impolite though of you. I wonder how you've managed at all in life - it must be terribly hand-to-mouth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited February 2019

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    Brussels have made clear they will accept No Deal if necessary, they will not concede removal of the backstop but they may reopen negotiations if the UK concedes permanent Customs Union membership. Given the Commons voted by 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal and Tory MPs like Oliver Letwin and Rudd have already suggested they would switch to back permanent Customs Union membership if the Deal still cannot get through there is a strong chance Parliament will vote for it
  • Charles said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Occasionally in a negotiation someone on the other side will leave some notes or a folder in the room when they have a breakout.

    It’s always tempting to look, and always the wrong thing to do
    My favourite is when the other side send me their stuff via Microsoft Word with track changes enabled.
    I once came across a heavily-redacted FOI response, posted online and presumably prepared or checked by the organisation’s top data protection operatives, where all the redactions were clearly visible by selecting the blacked-out text and right-clicking. Seeing as I suspect the redactions were mainly done to piss off the requestor, it was especially rewarding.

    On the substantive point about bar conversations, it’s not a classy look to lead with it in a first-person account of “my night in the pub”, IMO. Had he left it 48 hours, and slipped it halfway down as an aside (“Ollie Robbins, who’s told colleagues he believes the only options are...”), no-one would bat an eyelid. Not least as “Ollie Robbins doesn’t believe in No Deal” is hardly new.

  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Omnium said:

    Endillion said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
    'of some 27 years standing'?

    This person is invented.
    Nah. He set up a specialist trade journal and ran it until recently

    Still do. They wouldn’t let me out!

    Earn out are fun aren’t they!

    Hmmm ;-)

  • Charles said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Occasionally in a negotiation someone on the other side will leave some notes or a folder in the room when they have a breakout.

    It’s always tempting to look, and always the wrong thing to do
    Wasn't there a Two Ronnies story about a shared rehearsal space with Morecambe and Wise, who'd leave their scripts lying around?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051

    On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.

    No deal scenario - The commission is in disarray, Juncker has left and the new commission has not been appointed. So Herr Selymar steps up as the top EU bod. He is unequivocal "The Brits have left they need to lie in the bed they have made, solidarity for the remaining EU members."

    Merkel has just met with the bosses of Ford and Opel who have told her that all plants in Germany will close as their largest most profitable market is now not in the EU. GDP is forceast to drop 5%+ YoY in Germany this year.

    Merkel has requested emergency talks with the Prime Minister to try to salvage the dramatic drop in German goods exports to the UK.

    Am I a fiction writer or a non-fiction writer?
    You sound like one of those people that said warnings about No Deal were Project Fear.

    So a fiction writer.
    Not least, Britons will continue to love their Mercs, Beemers, Audis and Porsches.

  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    .
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    Charles said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Occasionally in a negotiation someone on the other side will leave some notes or a folder in the room when they have a breakout.

    It’s always tempting to look, and always the wrong thing to do
    My favourite is when the other side send me their stuff via Microsoft Word with track changes enabled.
    Which was what happened with the dodgy Iraq dossier, as I recall. Downing Street tarted up an extract they found off the internet, originally written by some hapless PhD student, and passed off this concoction as the latest deep intelligence. Problem was, it was a Word document that still contained its authoring information. After that they switched to PDFs.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Omnium said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Omnium said:

    Endillion said:

    Omnium said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    what's a b2b?
    Business to business (as opposed to b2c, or business to consumer).

    I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
    'of some 27 years standing'?

    This person is invented.
    Er, no. This is trivially verifiable.

    He doesn’t even make a secret of his identity - he posts tweets of his on here under his real name.

    You must be completely ignorant to have missed this in all the years you have have been posting on PB.
    "You must be completely ignorant to have missed this in all the years you have have been posting on PB."

    I'm sure you're right. How unpleasantly impolite though of you. I wonder how you've managed at all in life - it must be terribly hand-to-mouth.
    ??

    Not at all.

    You might do well to remind yourself that it was you that begun this discussion by accusing someone else of fabricating their own biographical details.
  • Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    They don't seem to think she will.
    No sensible PM ever would. The only way she'd do it is if someone is paying her to bump Cameron up a place at the bottom end of the best PM league table.
    I think it's impossible to predict what she'll do.

    It is within the bounds of possibility, she'll opt for No Deal.
    For the first time, I’m actually not sure what she’ll do.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051
    I reckon OGS hasn't got what it takes, seems tactically naive, despite his prolonged post Jose bounce.

    Worth a Lay for next manager?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Foxy said:

    I reckon OGS hasn't got what it takes, seems tactically naive, despite his prolonged post Jose bounce.

    Worth a Lay for next manager?

    United have been pretty awful. I thought they’d win tonight.
  • Foxy said:

    I reckon OGS hasn't got what it takes, seems tactically naive, despite his prolonged post Jose bounce.

    Worth a Lay for next manager?

    I thought so too.

    The pointer was when Manchester United didn't let him sign anyone in the transfer window.
  • Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    They don't seem to think she will.
    No sensible PM ever would. The only way she'd do it is if someone is paying her to bump Cameron up a place at the bottom end of the best PM league table.
    I think it's impossible to predict what she'll do.

    It is within the bounds of possibility, she'll opt for No Deal.
    For the first time, I’m actually not sure what she’ll do.
    So what was she going to do when you were sure?
  • On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.


    It would be unpredictable. That’s certainly one credible outcome but it’s far from the only one.

    The other is that it further embitters the divide between the UK and EU, there is still no meeting of minds, a number of floating voters decide it’s a lost cause, blame both sides but decide the game is up, the UK further diversifies its markets more globally and takes a different regulatory path, as the EU does the same and federalises further.

    Before too long things have moved on and it would be just as economically and politically disruptive to rejoin than to stay out.
  • Further proof that the deal is dead.

    The ERG aren't going to back it after this revelation.

    https://twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1095394943189827591
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051
    _Anazina_ said:

    Foxy said:

    I reckon OGS hasn't got what it takes, seems tactically naive, despite his prolonged post Jose bounce.

    Worth a Lay for next manager?

    United have been pretty awful. I thought they’d win tonight.
    Apart from Pogba and Matic, I didn't think them impressive at the King Power the other week.

    No chance now with Pogba missing in the second leg.
  • Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    They don't seem to think she will.
    No sensible PM ever would. The only way she'd do it is if someone is paying her to bump Cameron up a place at the bottom end of the best PM league table.
    I think it's impossible to predict what she'll do.

    It is within the bounds of possibility, she'll opt for No Deal.
    For the first time, I’m actually not sure what she’ll do.
    So what was she going to do when you were sure?
    I’ve hitherto been pretty confident she was never serious about No Deal and I predicted the broad parameters of both her Chequers deal, and the WA itself.
  • Foxy said:

    On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.

    No deal scenario - The commission is in disarray, Juncker has left and the new commission has not been appointed. So Herr Selymar steps up as the top EU bod. He is unequivocal "The Brits have left they need to lie in the bed they have made, solidarity for the remaining EU members."

    Merkel has just met with the bosses of Ford and Opel who have told her that all plants in Germany will close as their largest most profitable market is now not in the EU. GDP is forceast to drop 5%+ YoY in Germany this year.

    Merkel has requested emergency talks with the Prime Minister to try to salvage the dramatic drop in German goods exports to the UK.

    Am I a fiction writer or a non-fiction writer?
    You sound like one of those people that said warnings about No Deal were Project Fear.

    So a fiction writer.
    Not least, Britons will continue to love their Mercs, Beemers, Audis and Porsches.

    I’m not sure any car manufacturer should be confident about anything right now.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    edited February 2019

    Further proof that the deal is dead.

    The ERG aren't going to back it after this revelation.

    https://twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1095394943189827591

    Quite. You almost wonder if it wasn't planned: give the ERG a copper-bottomed reason to reject it and finally put the thing out of its misery. Theresa can then begin the important work of planning the Tories' survival amid a No Deal disaster.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited February 2019

    On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.


    It would be unpredictable. That’s certainly one credible outcome but it’s far from the only one.

    The other is that it further embitters the divide between the UK and EU, there is still no meeting of minds, a number of floating voters decide it’s a lost cause, blame both sides but decide the game is up, the UK further diversifies its markets more globally and takes a different regulatory path, as the EU does the same and federalises further.

    Before too long things have moved on and it would be just as economically and politically disruptive to rejoin than to stay out.
    We're the nation that called 999 during a brief KFC shortage, whether merited or not, anything bad that happens to this country in the short and medium term is going to be blamed on Brexit.

    Normally that might not be a problem, but when you contrast it with the Leave prospectus, then voters will take it out on Leavers.

    We hold all the cards, sunlit uplands, and rolling over all those deals one minute after Brexit will be the new 'We abolished boom and bust'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051

    Further proof that the deal is dead.

    The ERG aren't going to back it after this revelation.

    https://twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1095394943189827591

    I have long said that the FTA will look very much like the WA, as the same factors will drive the same factors. Probably including both the tribute and FOM.

    Still, blue passports!
  • TOPPING said:

    Reposting ... would be genuinely interested in what people think:

    ‪I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!‬

    Several years ago I was in a bar in Barbados watching Arsenal v Chelsea. As was Tony Blair.

    A friend of a friend who was a right-leaning journalist asked if he could use that for a story showing the human side of Blair, whereas he usually wrote anti pieces.

    I said no because if it had been a story showing Blair in a bad light I would also have refused.

    If that story had run today it’d have been more likely than not that it demonstrated his entitlement and privilege whilst trying to show he was a “man of the people”.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Bloody hell you lot; this is one loss !
    Obviously doing too well as a PL manager is a terrible thing, best to aim for consistent "never quite made it to the top, but doing ok" like Moyes at Everton.

    Simple fact is Man United don't have as good a team as PSG at the moment.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    As long as Brussels believes she will No Deal, we might get somewhere.

    I don't think the EU has an interest in protecting us from the consequences of our decisions. They primarily want us out with the least additional damage to themselves. They want a deal but they aren't going to compromise very much to get it. Their big problem is that they don't have a reliable negotiating partner who delivers on what she commits to. Talking about No Deal just adds to the lack of seriousness.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    On the topic of people disbelieving biographical details, there was a guy called Runnymede on here back in the golden years, who questioned the most mundane of personal experiences shared by other posters.

    You could say, “a few weekends ago I visited a pub in Ealing” or “last Tuesday I went to a cobblers in Kingsbury”, and he’d accuse you of making it all up.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.

    No deal scenario - The commission is in disarray, Juncker has left and the new commission has not been appointed. So Herr Selymar steps up as the top EU bod. He is unequivocal "The Brits have left they need to lie in the bed they have made, solidarity for the remaining EU members."

    Merkel has just met with the bosses of Ford and Opel who have told her that all plants in Germany will close as their largest most profitable market is now not in the EU. GDP is forceast to drop 5%+ YoY in Germany this year.

    Merkel has requested emergency talks with the Prime Minister to try to salvage the dramatic drop in German goods exports to the UK.

    Am I a fiction writer or a non-fiction writer?
    A fiction writer.

    When a Mercedes is sold in the UK, it adds more than twice as much to our GDP as theirs .

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Further proof that the deal is dead.

    The ERG aren't going to back it after this revelation.

    https://twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1095394943189827591

    We needed more proof?
  • On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.


    It would be unpredictable. That’s certainly one credible outcome but it’s far from the only one.

    The other is that it further embitters the divide between the UK and EU, there is still no meeting of minds, a number of floating voters decide it’s a lost cause, blame both sides but decide the game is up, the UK further diversifies its markets more globally and takes a different regulatory path, as the EU does the same and federalises further.

    Before too long things have moved on and it would be just as economically and politically disruptive to rejoin than to stay out.
    We're the nation that called 999 during a brief KFC shortage, whether merited or not, anything bad that happens to this country in the short and medium term is going to be blamed on Brexit.

    Normally that might not be a problem, but when you contrast it with the Leave prospectus, then voters will take it out on Leavers.

    We hold all the cards, sunlit uplands, and rolling over all those deals one minute after Brexit will be the new 'We abolish boom and bust'.
    There’s a lot of assumptions doing the running there. You might be right, but I don’t think it’s certain that you will be.

    There will be 30-35% of the electorate that will be deeply dismayed about Brexit for quite some time to come.

    What you have to worry about is the other 20-25% that might get you into a referendum winning zone of 50-55% for revocation right now, but might have moved on in 5 years time.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody hell you lot; this is one loss !
    Obviously doing too well as a PL manager is a terrible thing, best to aim for consistent "never quite made it to the top, but doing ok" like Moyes at Everton.

    Simple fact is Man United don't have as good a team as PSG at the moment.

    One loss that almost certainly puts them out of the Champions’ League. PSG are a good team but United weren’t at their best tonight - far from it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.

    No deal scenario - The commission is in disarray, Juncker has left and the new commission has not been appointed. So Herr Selymar steps up as the top EU bod. He is unequivocal "The Brits have left they need to lie in the bed they have made, solidarity for the remaining EU members."

    Merkel has just met with the bosses of Ford and Opel who have told her that all plants in Germany will close as their largest most profitable market is now not in the EU. GDP is forceast to drop 5%+ YoY in Germany this year.

    Merkel has requested emergency talks with the Prime Minister to try to salvage the dramatic drop in German goods exports to the UK.

    Am I a fiction writer or a non-fiction writer?
    A fiction writer.

    When a Mercedes is sold in the UK, it adds more than twice as much to our GDP as theirs .

    Go on, give us the numbers on this one...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Hunt on News at Ten putting the boot into Robbins - saying the last thing we need is another extension and more Brexit paralysis.....
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.


    It would be unpredictable. That’s certainly one credible outcome but it’s far from the only one.

    The other is that it further embitters the divide between the UK and EU, there is still no meeting of minds, a number of floating voters decide it’s a lost cause, blame both sides but decide the game is up, the UK further diversifies its markets more globally and takes a different regulatory path, as the EU does the same and federalises further.

    Before too long things have moved on and it would be just as economically and politically disruptive to rejoin than to stay out.
    We're the nation that called 999 during a brief KFC shortage, whether merited or not, anything bad that happens to this country in the short and medium term is going to be blamed on Brexit.

    [snip}

    '.
    Exactly, Brexit is already being cited in just about every bad news corporate announcement and it now comes up in a negative context in pretty much every management meeting I take part in at work. If we leave without a deal this effect will be magnified and go on for years and years. I think we can safely say that the careers of those politicians who got us into this mess will be over in the very near future.
  • On topic, I've been banging on for ages, and betting accordingly, that we're leaving next month with No Deal.

    The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.

    Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.


    It would be unpredictable. That’s certainly one credible outcome but it’s far from the only one.

    The other is that it further embitters the divide between the UK and EU, there is still no meeting of minds, a number of floating voters decide it’s a lost cause, blame both sides but decide the game is up, the UK further diversifies its markets more globally and takes a different regulatory path, as the EU does the same and federalises further.

    Before too long things have moved on and it would be just as economically and politically disruptive to rejoin than to stay out.
    We're the nation that called 999 during a brief KFC shortage, whether merited or not, anything bad that happens to this country in the short and medium term is going to be blamed on Brexit.

    Normally that might not be a problem, but when you contrast it with the Leave prospectus, then voters will take it out on Leavers.

    We hold all the cards, sunlit uplands, and rolling over all those deals one minute after Brexit will be the new 'We abolish boom and bust'.
    There’s a lot of assumptions doing the running there. You might be right, but I don’t think it’s certain that you will be.

    There will be 30-35% of the electorate that will be deeply dismayed about Brexit for quite some time to come.

    What you have to worry about is the other 20-25% that might get you into a referendum winning zone of 50-55% for revocation right now, but might have moved on in 5 years time.
    I've been in London the last couple of days, speaking to a few people, one Leaver made an interesting observation, we've gone from an optimistic Brexit to discussing 'how bad will Brexit be, bad or really bad', there's a danger Leave won the battle in 2016 but ultimately lost the war.

    Success equals performance minus expectation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    _Anazina_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody hell you lot; this is one loss !
    Obviously doing too well as a PL manager is a terrible thing, best to aim for consistent "never quite made it to the top, but doing ok" like Moyes at Everton.

    Simple fact is Man United don't have as good a team as PSG at the moment.

    One loss that almost certainly puts them out of the Champions’ League. PSG are a good team but United weren’t at their best tonight - far from it.
    Only Man City have the squad talent to compete on all fronts, they're probably the best club in Europe right now I reckon; good chance on 4 fronts right now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051
    _Anazina_ said:

    On the topic of people disbelieving biographical details, there was a guy called Runnymede on here back in the golden years, who questioned the most mundane of personal experiences shared by other posters.

    You could say, “a few weekends ago I visited a pub in Ealing” or “last Tuesday I went to a cobblers in Kingsbury”, and he’d accuse you of making it all up.


    You are making it up...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    Further proof that the deal is dead.

    The ERG aren't going to back it after this revelation.

    https://twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1095394943189827591

    Whatever deal that is negotiated between the EU and the UK will be lodged with the WTO and it will say "Customs Union", "FTA" or both. Customs unions are all or nothing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Anything for the party, that's May

    She seems to see the destruction of the country as preferable to the a split in the Tory Party.

    I didn't think she did, before she pulled the MV in December, but despite her seemingly sincere fears about no deal she appears to have prioritised that (with the cover of unicorns she know won't be found) ever since to avoid a split in the party, for now at least, and seeing it as the least damaging to the party.

    If her actions had previously indicated she wanted no deal that would be another thing, even if it were a silly thing to want. But she worked damn hard to avoid it, but now is going for it while pretending she isn't.
This discussion has been closed.