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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chris Grayling must surely be a good bet to be next Cabinet mi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chris Grayling must surely be a good bet to be next Cabinet minister out

I’ve just got 9/1 on Betfair that Chris Grayling will be the next cabinet minister out. It is not just the latest ferry company without ships saga but a whole history of cock-ups that we’ve seen. How he escaped unscathed from the last summer’s new rail table calamity was amazing.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited February 2019
    He's ex SDP which always shocks me, he should have stayed there and not ratted.
  • Was that an e pluribus unum?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Heart over head I'm afraid.
  • Personally I think my bets on Rudd, Gauke, and Clark are more likely to be winners in this market.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited February 2019
    Which makes me wonder, has a cabinet minister twice been first out the cabinet in 12 months?

    Amber Rudd could be a history maker, I'll never forget her resigning as Home Secretary after I tipped her at 33/1
  • Seems like a solid bet to me...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    has a cabinet twice be first out the cabinet in 12 months?

    Want to write that in English?
  • Grayling was Theresa May's campaign manager when she became PM, so she won't sack him, plus he's been loyal on Brexit, unlike those conniving turds Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Dominic Raab.
  • Scott_P said:

    has a cabinet twice be first out the cabinet in 12 months?

    Want to write that in English?
    The edit button is my friend and auto-correct an enemy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,954
    I can only think that Chris Grey Thing has the photographic evidence of what was REALLY the naughtiest thing Theresa May ever did.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    I see no ships..
  • My bet was funded by two lots of delay compensation I got for delays of upto 3 hours last summer
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    tlg86 said:

    Heart over head I'm afraid.

    Think it is fair enough at 9-1, but from the sounds of it it is shorter now so no bet.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    Grayling was Theresa May's campaign manager when she became PM, so she won't sack him, plus he's been loyal on Brexit, unlike those conniving turds Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Dominic Raab.

    I agree, he's quietly sucked it up in Brexit in a way that others haven't. Also, with Corbyn gunning for him, does that protect him as any move now would make it look like it was a big Labour success.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    Danger to the bet:
    Will any cabinet members resign to support Cooper-Boles II ?
    Grayling won't.
  • It's the wrong time for Theresa May to be sacking anyone, which no doubt is why the odds are 9/1, especially when plenty of other ministers are threatening to walk. It looks like a fair bet but no better to me.

    I'm steering clear of this market at present.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Danger to the bet:
    Will any cabinet members resign to support Cooper-Boles II ?
    Grayling won't.

    I think so.

    See this thread

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1095675735904264192
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,954
    Sweeney74 said:

    Seems like a solid bet to me...

    Have you used your avatar to check it out?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Danger to the bet:
    Will any cabinet members resign to support Cooper-Boles II ?

    Yes, probably.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    Talking of betting, that bar-room indiscretion seems to have had a noticeable effect on the markets.

    “The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension,” he was overheard saying. “In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”

    I suppose that means the "issue" is whether or not Brussels will insist on the deal being approved before an extension, which is more or less what Brussels has been saying in public. Apparently Oliver Robbins thinks they are bluffing and will eventually just grant an extension without any conditions.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Danger to the bet:
    Will any cabinet members resign to support Cooper-Boles II ?

    Yes, probably.
    They probably will if they take note of comments like this:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095677325314801664
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    The Conservatives are at best indifferent to business. Right now they have an impressive variety of business organisations screaming at them as a consequence.

    That's not quite right. There remains a very strong pro-business element in the party, which is well represented amongst Tory MPs and ministers (Phil Hammond, Greg Clark, Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and many more).
    Indeed, and those you name would make a seriously formidable top team (particularly Gauke, who is a very impressive, knowledgeable guy). Sadly, the party seems to be at the mercy of the anti-business hard right. One can only hope that this will change soon.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    First, like Chris Grayling.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    _Anazina_ said:

    The Conservatives are at best indifferent to business. Right now they have an impressive variety of business organisations screaming at them as a consequence.

    That's not quite right. There remains a very strong pro-business element in the party, which is well represented amongst Tory MPs and ministers (Phil Hammond, Greg Clark, Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and many more).
    Indeed, and those you name would make a seriously formidable top team (particularly Gauke, who is a very impressive, knowledgeable guy). Sadly, the party seems to be at the mercy of the anti-business hard right. One can only hope that this will change soon.
    Gauke scuppered my "Next out" bet on him over the whole Worboys mess. I'm not repeating that mistake again :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Chris said:

    Talking of betting, that bar-room indiscretion seems to have had a noticeable effect on the markets.

    “The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension,” he was overheard saying. “In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”

    I suppose that means the "issue" is whether or not Brussels will insist on the deal being approved before an extension, which is more or less what Brussels has been saying in public. Apparently Oliver Robbins thinks they are bluffing and will eventually just grant an extension without any conditions.

    And why wouldn't they? Brexit not happening on time is the first step toward it not happening at all.
  • My bet was funded by two lots of delay compensation I got for delays of upto 3 hours last summer

    In 2018 I received so much compensation from Transpennine Express it paid for two holidays.

    Hurrah for that timetable change that Grayling oversaw.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Talking of betting, that bar-room indiscretion seems to have had a noticeable effect on the markets.

    “The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension,” he was overheard saying. “In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”

    I suppose that means the "issue" is whether or not Brussels will insist on the deal being approved before an extension, which is more or less what Brussels has been saying in public. Apparently Oliver Robbins thinks they are bluffing and will eventually just grant an extension without any conditions.

    And why wouldn't they? Brexit not happening on time is the first step toward it not happening at all.
    It may also be the first step toward a sane Brexit.
  • Sweeney74 said:

    Seems like a solid bet to me...

    Have you used your avatar to check it out?
    Spoilers...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2019
    If he doesn’t get the sack for the trains and the boats....what’s left? airplanes?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Talking of betting, that bar-room indiscretion seems to have had a noticeable effect on the markets.

    “The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension,” he was overheard saying. “In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”

    I suppose that means the "issue" is whether or not Brussels will insist on the deal being approved before an extension, which is more or less what Brussels has been saying in public. Apparently Oliver Robbins thinks they are bluffing and will eventually just grant an extension without any conditions.

    And why wouldn't they? Brexit not happening on time is the first step toward it not happening at all.
    Why would they rather say that an extension will only be granted if a decision is made first? In order to try to maximise the pressure on the UK to make a decision, obviously.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,224
    edited February 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Talking of betting, that bar-room indiscretion seems to have had a noticeable effect on the markets.

    “The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension,” he was overheard saying. “In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”

    I suppose that means the "issue" is whether or not Brussels will insist on the deal being approved before an extension, which is more or less what Brussels has been saying in public. Apparently Oliver Robbins thinks they are bluffing and will eventually just grant an extension without any conditions.

    And why wouldn't they? Brexit not happening on time is the first step toward it not happening at all.
    That's a bit glib. They'd need a reason, preferably an 'event'. A GE or Ref would do, but just because Parliament couldn't agree? Not sure about that.


    Btw, I'm just picking up on this Robbins thing and I was immediately reminded of my early days in the City when I was advised to be careful what I said in the local pubs and restaurants in case it was overheard. I was a humble oik dealing in far less sensitive matters than Brexit. My conclusion is that Ollie is either exceptionally dumb or was doing it on purpose.

    My second thought was that the My Deal or Delay line was no great issue. Many will have inferred as much anyway.

    The Backstop/Bridge issue is more significant though. If true, it shows she's taking her own supporters for mugs. Not a good look.
  • Chris grayling the boxed wine of politicians.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Talking of betting, that bar-room indiscretion seems to have had a noticeable effect on the markets.

    “The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension,” he was overheard saying. “In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”

    I suppose that means the "issue" is whether or not Brussels will insist on the deal being approved before an extension, which is more or less what Brussels has been saying in public. Apparently Oliver Robbins thinks they are bluffing and will eventually just grant an extension without any conditions.

    And why wouldn't they? Brexit not happening on time is the first step toward it not happening at all.
    It may also be the first step toward a sane Brexit.
    There's no such thing as a sane Brexit, since becoming a failing pariah on the periphery of one of the world's principal power blocks is no future for our country.

    But you are right that some Brexits would be less insane than others.
  • If he doesn’t get the sack for the trains and the boats....what’s left? airplanes?

    Hmmm.....interesting. He wasn't in anyway connected with flight MH370, was he?

    I think we should be told.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not so sure. Grayling's taxi would probably fail to turn up and he'd end up hanging around indefinitely.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    If he doesn’t get the sack for the trains and the boats....what’s left? airplanes?

    Hmmm.....interesting. He wasn't in anyway connected with flight MH370, was he?

    I think we should be told.
    I remember some of the Tory twits on here praising Grayling for getting on with No Deal prep.
  • Was Amber Rudd the last person to leave Cabinet for reasons other than Brexit? (And was that really only last April? It feels so long ago.)

    In that case she left to protect her predecessor as Home Secretary. Grayling is a valuable May loyalist in the Cabinet and I think he will only depart if doing so is necessary to protect the PM. While the failings at the Department of Transport continue not to implicate the PM then it seems to me that he can stay in post endlessly to soak up the criticism.

    Brexit means that public attention will move on, whereas in normal political times the focus could remain on Grayling and eventually force the resignation.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    TBF to Grayling, he may be hopeless, but a bigger issue is that the DfT doesn't appear to be particularly fit for purpose - and its problems well predate his time there.

    It needs a minister who is angry enough to go in there and sort it out, and with the political backing to do so. And it'd help if Brexit wasn't subsuming everything ... ;)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Talking of betting, that bar-room indiscretion seems to have had a noticeable effect on the markets.

    “The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension,” he was overheard saying. “In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”

    I suppose that means the "issue" is whether or not Brussels will insist on the deal being approved before an extension, which is more or less what Brussels has been saying in public. Apparently Oliver Robbins thinks they are bluffing and will eventually just grant an extension without any conditions.

    And why wouldn't they? Brexit not happening on time is the first step toward it not happening at all.
    It may also be the first step toward a sane Brexit.
    There's no such thing as a sane Brexit, since becoming a failing pariah on the periphery of one of the world's principal power blocks is no future for our country.

    But you are right that some Brexits would be less insane than others.
    An EEA Brexit - either within EFTA (Norway), or bespoke (Switzerland) is viable. Although to get there would have required some vision and statesmanship.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,954

    If he doesn’t get the sack for the trains and the boats....what’s left? airplanes?

    "Chris Grayling was today dismissed by the Prime Minister, after it emerged the planes he chartered to fly medicines into the UK after Brexit had no wings.

    He was heard to mumble in his final Cabinet "I thought I could just, you know, borrow some. From that factory - near Chester?"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    If he doesn’t get the sack for the trains and the boats....what’s left? airplanes?

    "Chris Grayling was today dismissed by the Prime Minister, after it emerged the planes he chartered to fly medicines into the UK after Brexit had no wings.

    He was heard to mumble in his final Cabinet "I thought I could just, you know, borrow some. From that factory - near Chester?"
    Funny, except they Grayling is basically Brexit-in-office. Implicitly you are taking the piss out of your own ideology.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2019
    Grayling has already had aeroplanes criticism, over the Gatwick drone issue.

    As with the other attacks, it was pretty silly to blame him. I mean it's not like he's wasted £10bn on an NHS database or £3bn on a Rural Payments Agency which drove farmers to suicide.

    As a general rule, betting on a cabinet minister leaving because the opposition are criticising him or her is a mug's game.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,954

    If he doesn’t get the sack for the trains and the boats....what’s left? airplanes?

    "Chris Grayling was today dismissed by the Prime Minister, after it emerged the planes he chartered to fly medicines into the UK after Brexit had no wings.

    He was heard to mumble in his final Cabinet "I thought I could just, you know, borrow some. From that factory - near Chester?"
    Funny, except they Grayling is basically Brexit-in-office. Implicitly you are taking the piss out of your own ideology.
    I have no problem taking the piss out of the implementation of my "own ideology".

    God knows, I've got the ammunition....
  • Is this the reason for the surprising strength of Theresa May's polling? Does a country full of moderates recognise a pragmatic compromise in the Withdrawal Agreement?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/the-surprising-truth-about-brexit-britain-were-a-country-full-of-moderates

    It wouldn't be the first time those in the Westminster/media bubble misunderstood the mood of the country. But then it is rather contradicted by the polling that had people identifying quite strongly with being Remainers/Leavers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    If he doesn’t get the sack for the trains and the boats....what’s left? airplanes?

    Not after March

    😈
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    The government’s push to roll over EU trade deals from which the UK currently benefits has yielded agreements covering only £16bn of the near-£117bn of British trade with the countries involved.

    Despite frenetic efforts by ministers to ensure the continuity of international trade after the UK leaves the EU on 29 March, the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, has so far only managed to secure deals with seven of the 69 countries that the UK currently trades with under preferential EU free trade agreements, which will end after Brexit.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited February 2019

    Grayling has already had aeroplanes criticism, over the Gatwick drone issue.

    That only leaves the roads then. I'd suggest that if a roads-related fiasco were ever semi-credibly laid at his door it would be more likely to finish him off then any other form of transport.
  • Didn't see PMQs but am surprised that Jezza played a blinder over the Seaborne thing. I thought it was the very embodiment of sound contractual process.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Struggling to see why Grayling need resign over Seaborne, or why Mike thinks Corbyn played a blinder at PMQs. At least the DfT has been making some real contingency plans here to protect us in the event of the worst case outcome. They ran an abridged procurement process (the Eurotunnel challenge will tell us whether it passed muster, but prima facie I am minded to back to Govt on that), awarded a contract and then found the contracting party couldnt deliver on what it promised. So they terminated.

    Had they been determined to let Seaborne carry on in the face of the obvious "no ships" issue, then that would have been a different, and resigning, matter.

    Of course, I am a lawyer not a politician. It may be that, politically, Corbyn does have Grayling on the ropes over this, however harsh that may be.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    Is this the reason for the surprising strength of Theresa May's polling? Does a country full of moderates recognise a pragmatic compromise in the Withdrawal Agreement?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/the-surprising-truth-about-brexit-britain-were-a-country-full-of-moderates

    It wouldn't be the first time those in the Westminster/media bubble misunderstood the mood of the country. But then it is rather contradicted by the polling that had people identifying quite strongly with being Remainers/Leavers.

    I think there is a confusion between frustration and moderation. The "we want this over with" faction is very powerful and becoming increasingly vocal. They haven't read the WA (who has?) but see it as a way out and a way to "move on" to use the vernacular.

    The problem is some people who have read the WA see some serious flaws in it which will potentially affect this country's future economic relationship with a significant trading partner. Too many aspects seem to tie us in perpetuity to the EU and is that truly what Brexit means? The "backstop" which like the Irish Question in general is little understood has become a political thing but part of the recognition that for the first time in a very long time Britain and Ireland are going their separate ways economically as well as politically.

    The only analogy I have is the drowning man who is thrown a lifebelt but sees it has a hand grenade tied to it with the pin out.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    What happens to the first out bet there is a cabinet reshuffle post-end March and 2 CMs depart in a morning? First out of the black door?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    stodge said:

    Is this the reason for the surprising strength of Theresa May's polling? Does a country full of moderates recognise a pragmatic compromise in the Withdrawal Agreement?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/the-surprising-truth-about-brexit-britain-were-a-country-full-of-moderates

    It wouldn't be the first time those in the Westminster/media bubble misunderstood the mood of the country. But then it is rather contradicted by the polling that had people identifying quite strongly with being Remainers/Leavers.

    I think there is a confusion between frustration and moderation. The "we want this over with" faction is very powerful and becoming increasingly vocal. They haven't read the WA (who has?) but see it as a way out and a way to "move on" to use the vernacular.

    The problem is some people who have read the WA see some serious flaws in it which will potentially affect this country's future economic relationship with a significant trading partner. Too many aspects seem to tie us in perpetuity to the EU and is that truly what Brexit means? The "backstop" which like the Irish Question in general is little understood has become a political thing but part of the recognition that for the first time in a very long time Britain and Ireland are going their separate ways economically as well as politically.

    The only analogy I have is the drowning man who is thrown a lifebelt but sees it has a hand grenade tied to it with the pin out.
    I thought Leavers normally eschewed the ‘voters are stupid’ meme?
  • matt said:

    What happens to the first out bet there is a cabinet reshuffle post-end March and 2 CMs depart in a morning? First out of the black door?

    If there are more than one exits on the same day then bookie dead heat rules apply. So if there are two departures you lose half your stake but the other half is settled at the level you bet at.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    The presidential race is in danger of converting fully into a billionaires’ plaything:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/13/michael-bloomberg-trump-2020-1167159
  • I know how much we all like personalized number-plate drivers on PB...

    Corbynista car enthusiasts will no doubt have their eyes on the DVLA today as it holds one of its regular auctions of personalised numberplates – up for sale today is a collector’s item, the numberplate COR87N.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/13/corbyn-selling-cheap/
  • Corbyn was as good as I have seen him today and utterly traduced Grayling

    Credit where it is due
  • I thought Corbyn would already have a cherished number plate: C11NT
  • Interesting that Mike thinks Corbyn did well today> Tis a very low bar of course
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Failing Grayling should never have been in the Cabinet. Or anywhere other than a soft play area by himself with no knives around.

    He's another example of May's uselessness - Example 194. Her utter inability to pick people of talent and competence. See, also, Johnson, Fox, Davis.
  • Interesting that Mike thinks Corbyn did well today> Tis a very low bar of course

    See my comment at 2.48pm
  • Corbyn was as good as I have seen him today and utterly traduced Grayling

    Credit where it is due

    As I say it is but a low bar. It is a bit like being amazed when Eddie the Eagle doesn't kill himself. The difference of course, being that The Eagle is actually a nice bloke
  • Cyclefree said:

    Failing Grayling should never have been in the Cabinet. Or anywhere other than a soft play area by himself with no knives around.

    He's another example of May's uselessness - Example 194. Her utter inability to pick people of talent and competence. See, also, Johnson, Fox, Davis.

    Indeed.
  • I thought Corbyn would already have a cherished number plate: C11NT

    I think Piers Morgan might have outbid him.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Failing Grayling should never have been in the Cabinet. Or anywhere other than a soft play area by himself with no knives around.

    He's another example of May's uselessness - Example 194. Her utter inability to pick people of talent and competence. See, also, Johnson, Fox, Davis.

    Grayling is simply incompetent and in any normal cabinet he would have been fired ages ago

    Johnson, Fox, Davis joins a list of virtually the whole shadow cabinet as useless

    We all deserve so much better
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Pulpstar said:

    Danger to the bet:
    Will any cabinet members resign to support Cooper-Boles II ?

    Yes, probably.
    When? March 28th?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Anyway, I enjoyed the discussion on the previous thread about why, having once made a decision, it is imperative to go through with it even though you might have changed your mind and circumstances have changed.

    I am sure that all those Leavers who think like that are also in favour of:-

    1. Abolishing cooling off periods for important financial and other contracts.
    2. Abolishing divorce.
    3. Never getting back together with someone you parted from even if you both want to because, you know, you made that decision once and you can't revisit it.
    4. Flying to a country which has been declared unsafe by the FO because you made the decision to go there, have bought the tickets and travel insurance is for cissies.

    Maybe - if there were a 2nd referendum - Leave might win again. But the insistence that this cannot possibly be tested, no sirree, absolutely not, it is the start of totalitarianism, the death of democracy and all civilised life, etc etc does smack a teensy weensy bit of protesting a bit too much.

    Is is possible that there might be just a smidgen of fear that the people might indeed have changed their mind and that the reality of the Leavers' grand offering might be found wanting?
  • A failed plan to build a bridge covered with trees and flowers over the River Thames in central London cost a total of £53m, it has been revealed.

    A Transport for London investigation showed The Garden Bridge Trust spent £161,000 on a website and £417,000 on a gala event for the abandoned project.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-47228698
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2019
    No batty for this boy for the next 4 games.

    West Indies fast bowler Shannon Gabriel has been banned for the first four one-day internationals against England.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/47230497
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, I enjoyed the discussion on the previous thread about why, having once made a decision, it is imperative to go through with it even though you might have changed your mind and circumstances have changed.

    I am sure that all those Leavers who think like that are also in favour of:-

    1. Abolishing cooling off periods for important financial and other contracts.
    2. Abolishing divorce.
    3. Never getting back together with someone you parted from even if you both want to because, you know, you made that decision once and you can't revisit it.
    4. Flying to a country which has been declared unsafe by the FO because you made the decision to go there, have bought the tickets and travel insurance is for cissies.

    Maybe - if there were a 2nd referendum - Leave might win again. But the insistence that this cannot possibly be tested, no sirree, absolutely not, it is the start of totalitarianism, the death of democracy and all civilised life, etc etc does smack a teensy weensy bit of protesting a bit too much.

    Is is possible that there might be just a smidgen of fear that the people might indeed have changed their mind and that the reality of the Leavers' grand offering might be found wanting?

    And just how many chances do remain get?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    A failed plan to build a bridge covered with trees and flowers over the River Thames in central London cost a total of £53m, it has been revealed.

    A Transport for London investigation showed The Garden Bridge Trust spent £161,000 on a website and £417,000 on a gala event for the abandoned project.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-47228698

    How can you spend £53 mio on a plan for a bridge? How?

    Were they doing the drawings in gold leaf?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, I enjoyed the discussion on the previous thread about why, having once made a decision, it is imperative to go through with it even though you might have changed your mind and circumstances have changed.

    I am sure that all those Leavers who think like that are also in favour of:-

    1. Abolishing cooling off periods for important financial and other contracts.
    2. Abolishing divorce.
    3. Never getting back together with someone you parted from even if you both want to because, you know, you made that decision once and you can't revisit it.
    4. Flying to a country which has been declared unsafe by the FO because you made the decision to go there, have bought the tickets and travel insurance is for cissies.

    Maybe - if there were a 2nd referendum - Leave might win again. But the insistence that this cannot possibly be tested, no sirree, absolutely not, it is the start of totalitarianism, the death of democracy and all civilised life, etc etc does smack a teensy weensy bit of protesting a bit too much.

    Is is possible that there might be just a smidgen of fear that the people might indeed have changed their mind and that the reality of the Leavers' grand offering might be found wanting?

    Your latter point ignores the ability of the leave camp to argue (at least) two contradictory positions simultaneously.

    As for the rest.... expect incoming fire.
    :-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Cyclefree said:

    A failed plan to build a bridge covered with trees and flowers over the River Thames in central London cost a total of £53m, it has been revealed.

    A Transport for London investigation showed The Garden Bridge Trust spent £161,000 on a website and £417,000 on a gala event for the abandoned project.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-47228698

    How can you spend £53 mio on a plan for a bridge? How?

    Were they doing the drawings in gold leaf?
    £21.4mn on construction contracts. Bet those contractors were laughing all the way to the bank.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    Failing Grayling should never have been in the Cabinet. Or anywhere other than a soft play area by himself with no knives around.

    He's another example of May's uselessness - Example 194. Her utter inability to pick people of talent and competence. See, also, Johnson, Fox, Davis.

    Grayling is simply incompetent and in any normal cabinet he would have been fired ages ago

    Johnson, Fox, Davis joins a list of virtually the whole shadow cabinet as useless

    We all deserve so much better
    Other people who should never have been appointed: Raab, Williamson, Priti Patel

    In fact, working out who was worth appointing and has tried to do their job halfway competently is probably easier and amounts to Gove.
  • An interesting thread on the state of play:

    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1095454588285652992

    (Apparently the EU won't be reopening the Withdrawal Agreement but might do some last-minute keyhole surgery on it!)
  • Miss Cyclefree, they should've given me £50m.

    There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Miss Cyclefree, they should've given me £50m.

    There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.

    I hear your new trebuchet is a total money sink.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Failing Grayling should never have been in the Cabinet. Or anywhere other than a soft play area by himself with no knives around.

    He's another example of May's uselessness - Example 194. Her utter inability to pick people of talent and competence. See, also, Johnson, Fox, Davis.

    Grayling is simply incompetent and in any normal cabinet he would have been fired ages ago

    Johnson, Fox, Davis joins a list of virtually the whole shadow cabinet as useless

    We all deserve so much better
    Other people who should never have been appointed: Raab, Williamson, Priti Patel

    In fact, working out who was worth appointing and has tried to do their job halfway competently is probably easier and amounts to Gove.
    Granted his office now represents something of a cipher, but the new Brexit Secretary also appears to be among the buffleheads, capable only of failing to answer any questions... at very great length.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A failed plan to build a bridge covered with trees and flowers over the River Thames in central London cost a total of £53m, it has been revealed.

    A Transport for London investigation showed The Garden Bridge Trust spent £161,000 on a website and £417,000 on a gala event for the abandoned project.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-47228698

    How can you spend £53 mio on a plan for a bridge? How?

    Were they doing the drawings in gold leaf?
    £21.4mn on construction contracts. Bet those contractors were laughing all the way to the bank.
    And a nice detail:
    The payout will help refund donors including £3,200 to the winner of a Garden Bridge auction prize who did not receive their promised game of "table tennis with Boris Johnson"...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Your latter point ignores the ability of the leave camp to argue (at least) two contradictory positions simultaneously.

    As for the rest.... expect incoming fire.
    :-)
    Oh I've already had it. Par for the course.

    If those who think that Leave is the right thing to do now were confident of their position, they would not be so determined to shut down the argument. I think that many of them aren't as confident as they claim that voters would agree, having seen what it means in practice.

    And I do accept - as I have said ad nauseam - that there are big problems with being seen to rerun votes to get to a predetermined answer. There are no good options. But a fresh vote may well be the least worst option given that MPs are refusing to behave like grown ups.

    A WA pushed through in panic at the last minute will not stick. It will not allow us to move on to the next stage. It just means that all those arguments which have not been resolved now will simply continue. It will prolong the division and anger and feeling that the country has been bullied into being forced to make a division, that it has been denied a proper debate on this deal, that it has been denied alternatives, that it has been denied the opportunity to think again when this could have made a difference to the outcome. It will entrench bitterness.

    Sure - many of the People's Vote crowd are people who have never accepted the original decision.

    But that is not my position. I think that now that we know what the WA deal is, given the red lines which this government has adopted, and now that we know that we can revoke and remain on existing terms, we should be entitled to say whether we still want to go ahead or stay. This is not rerunning the same referendum as in 2016. It is asking people now to make a decision now on what they have learnt in the last two years and 7 months and what is on offer - in reality - now.

    And I come to this view because Parliament has been largely sidelined in this process and is refusing to deal with this sensibly. I do not think a panicked decision will be a good or sensible decision or an enduring one. The least worst option is, having asked the people once, to ask them now and make sure that the two options on offer are ones that can, in reality be implemented.
  • Mr. D, it takes a lot of grease to make assorted trebuchets operate smoothly, you know.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,954
    RobD said:

    Miss Cyclefree, they should've given me £50m.

    There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.

    I hear your new trebuchet is a total money sink.
    It's the finances of his Death Star that are eye-watering.....

    "Even if you can imagine quite a bit, Centives, the economics blog of students of Lehigh University, says it would cost “$852,000,000,000,000,000. Or roughly 13,000 times the world's GDP” to build the Death Star…and that’s just the cost of steel production."

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolpinchefsky/2012/02/21/how-much-would-it-cost-to-build-the-death-star-from-star-wars/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Nigelb said:
    All I know is KLOBUCHAR is Klingon for “first”... or so someone formerly of this parish claimed... :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited February 2019

    RobD said:

    Miss Cyclefree, they should've given me £50m.

    There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.

    I hear your new trebuchet is a total money sink.
    It's the finances of his Death Star that are eye-watering.....

    "Even if you can imagine quite a bit, Centives, the economics blog of students of Lehigh University, says it would cost “$852,000,000,000,000,000. Or roughly 13,000 times the world's GDP” to build the Death Star…and that’s just the cost of steel production."

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolpinchefsky/2012/02/21/how-much-would-it-cost-to-build-the-death-star-from-star-wars/
    And about ten cents for the exhaust port cover.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    IanB2 said:

    The government’s push to roll over EU trade deals from which the UK currently benefits has yielded agreements covering only £16bn of the near-£117bn of British trade with the countries involved.

    Despite frenetic efforts by ministers to ensure the continuity of international trade after the UK leaves the EU on 29 March, the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, has so far only managed to secure deals with seven of the 69 countries that the UK currently trades with under preferential EU free trade agreements, which will end after Brexit.

    He has also conceded freedom of movement in two of those deals.

    Which is mildly amusing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    @rcs1000 - not sure I ever said thanks for getting the site back to how it normally looks. Excellent work!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Miss Cyclefree, they should've given me £50m.

    There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.

    They could have given me £5 million and I would have created gardens of wonder all over London and lots of other places besides.

    Which gives me an opportunity to boast yet again - https://imgur.com/17JW7xl
  • RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, I enjoyed the discussion on the previous thread about why, having once made a decision, it is imperative to go through with it even though you might have changed your mind and circumstances have changed.

    I am sure that all those Leavers who think like that are also in favour of:-

    1. Abolishing cooling off periods for important financial and other contracts.
    2. Abolishing divorce.
    3. Never getting back together with someone you parted from even if you both want to because, you know, you made that decision once and you can't revisit it.
    4. Flying to a country which has been declared unsafe by the FO because you made the decision to go there, have bought the tickets and travel insurance is for cissies.

    Maybe - if there were a 2nd referendum - Leave might win again. But the insistence that this cannot possibly be tested, no sirree, absolutely not, it is the start of totalitarianism, the death of democracy and all civilised life, etc etc does smack a teensy weensy bit of protesting a bit too much.

    Is is possible that there might be just a smidgen of fear that the people might indeed have changed their mind and that the reality of the Leavers' grand offering might be found wanting?

    And just how many chances do remain get?
    As many as they need until they win. That is Remainer logic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,954
    Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, they should've given me £50m.

    There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.

    They could have given me £5 million and I would have created gardens of wonder all over London and lots of other places besides.

    Which gives me an opportunity to boast yet again - https://imgur.com/17JW7xl
    That's well worth bragging over.

    Although give our camelias a few more days, and I'll astonish you! There are thousands upon thousands of buds, just waiting to burst open.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,954
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Miss Cyclefree, they should've given me £50m.

    There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.

    I hear your new trebuchet is a total money sink.
    It's the finances of his Death Star that are eye-watering.....

    "Even if you can imagine quite a bit, Centives, the economics blog of students of Lehigh University, says it would cost “$852,000,000,000,000,000. Or roughly 13,000 times the world's GDP” to build the Death Star…and that’s just the cost of steel production."

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolpinchefsky/2012/02/21/how-much-would-it-cost-to-build-the-death-star-from-star-wars/
    And about ten cents for the exhaust port cover.
    "Oh, we can make a cost saving there"

    Construction overseer, Darth Grayling......
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, I enjoyed the discussion on the previous thread about why, having once made a decision, it is imperative to go through with it even though you might have changed your mind and circumstances have changed.

    I am sure that all those Leavers who think like that are also in favour of:-

    1. Abolishing cooling off periods for important financial and other contracts.
    2. Abolishing divorce.
    3. Never getting back together with someone you parted from even if you both want to because, you know, you made that decision once and you can't revisit it.
    4. Flying to a country which has been declared unsafe by the FO because you made the decision to go there, have bought the tickets and travel insurance is for cissies.

    Maybe - if there were a 2nd referendum - Leave might win again. But the insistence that this cannot possibly be tested, no sirree, absolutely not, it is the start of totalitarianism, the death of democracy and all civilised life, etc etc does smack a teensy weensy bit of protesting a bit too much.

    Is is possible that there might be just a smidgen of fear that the people might indeed have changed their mind and that the reality of the Leavers' grand offering might be found wanting?

    And just how many chances do remain get?
    An interesting choice of words.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited February 2019
    Ms Cyclefree,

    We came to a democratic decision after a three week intensive campaign. We didn't vote on a whim after a salesman came to call. We have three week campaigns before we vote on a government too.

    What has happened is that Parliament refused to accept the decision and did everything it could to prevaricate and insist it had to have the final decision. Their campaigning has carried on incessantly ever since.

    I'd liken it to a government refusing to accept a GE result. You're were misled, the other side cheated, and you're too thick to make a decision. The Great and the Good are doing it for your own good. We won't implement your decision, we'll wait a couple of days and then insist you've probably changed your mind.

    We can argue about whose analogy is most correct, but the precedent it sets is unarguable. The voters' decision is subject to Parliamentary oversight. If we don't like it, you'll have to vote again.

    Whether we Remain, Leave or Bino is less relevant. The message it would send out is the problem.

    Even if we voted Leave again, the damage is done.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Noone can defend Grayling any more..
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Is is possible that there might be just a smidgen of fear that the people might indeed have changed their mind and that the reality of the Leavers' grand offering might be found wanting?

    For many Leavers, that is probably "the terror that dare not speak its name". They sold us a pup and they know it, but this is the only chance they will ever have to indulge their prejudices.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CD13 said:

    What has happened is that Parliament refused to accept the decision and did everything it could to prevaricate and insist it had to have the final decision.

    Not really.

    Parliament has voted through every single Brexit measure presented to it apart from the WA, which is not required for us to leave.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, they should've given me £50m.

    There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.

    They could have given me £5 million and I would have created gardens of wonder all over London and lots of other places besides.

    Which gives me an opportunity to boast yet again - https://imgur.com/17JW7xl
    That's well worth bragging over.

    Although give our camelias a few more days, and I'll astonish you! There are thousands upon thousands of buds, just waiting to burst open.
    I look forward to seeing the pictures! I have three lovely camellias in the front. They too have buds. My iris and crocuses are also coming into flower, despite the squirrel's depredations. And I have a most beautiful scented winter-flowering viburnum which is in full flower next to some flowering and scented daphnes.

    If I were London Mayor for a day I would encourage the greening of front gardens and wasteland spaces, not just for beauty but to encourage beneficial insects and wildlife and to help clean the air. There is no space that wouldn't be improved by a plant or two.

  • As with the other attacks, it was pretty silly to blame him. I mean it's not like he's wasted £10bn on an NHS database or £3bn on a Rural Payments Agency which drove farmers to suicide.

    That's proper old school PB Toryism that is.
    Marvellous to see.
This discussion has been closed.