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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six weeks tomorrow could mark the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom as we know it
One of the features of Brexit, particularly a no deal one, is the impact that it could have on the integrity of the United Kingdom.
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Northern Ireland and Scotland will be doing everything they can to leave the UK...
A Labour activist suspended over allegations of antisemitism has been appointed to the board of a left-wing group whose president is John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor.
Jackie Walker was suspended by the party after she claimed that Jews were the “chief financiers” of the slave trade.
At the weekend she was elected to the board of the Labour Representation Committee (LRC). Mr McDonnell was re-elected as the body’s president. The group’s website also says that it carried a motion against Labour’s adoption of the International Holocaust Remembrance Association (IHRA) definition of antisemitism.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/leftwingers-appoint-jackie-walker-activist-suspended-over-antisemitism-claims-m0q3kpkh2
At the time the father of one of the three girls was paraded all over the TV and in front of a Parliamentary committee wailing about how he could not possibly understand how his little girl could do such a thing. It then turned out that the father had attended various marches and rallies organised by jihadists and extremist speakers. In short, the innocent daughter learnt her extremism from her father who had, at best, dissembled about his responsibility for his daughter's actions.
That bit was not as widely canvassed all over the TV of course.
It would be nice to think that the only reason why people do these horrible things is because they have been brainwashed. Ergo they cannot be responsible. So we must treat them as a victim without more inquiry. A more realistic and sceptical approach would realise that there are some (maybe the majority) who do it because they believe that this is their religious duty and that it makes sense to them, even if it does not to us. Believing something we find inexplicable and acting on that belief does not mean that a person should be excused the consequences of their actions.
And, frankly, given the risks that the IS ideology still poses - even as its Caliphate vanishes - our politicians should be considering the security of people here before worrying about a jihadist sitting in a Syrian camp.
Disagree that Wales will feature strongly in that. They barely scraped enough votes together for what was then a slightly souped-up county council, there's no massive difference of opinion on Brexit compared to England, and the ties to the motherland are stronger
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1096071268040871937
https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073
However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
She was radicalised here.
I don't think the same situation applies to Scotland, much as the SNP would wish it to. While Irish unification would see Northern Ireland straight back into the EU, and the immediate end to border problems on the island of Ireland, Scottish independence would not do the same for Scotland - none of the problems created by Brexit would be automatically or immediately solved by Scotland's departure from the UK.
Plus, the experience of untangling Britain from a 40-something year old Union with Europe would seem to pale in comparison with untangling a 300-and-something old Union with England. Every day of border chaos in Ireland, would create a seed of doubt about the potential for border chaos near Carlisle, Berwick, etc.
Just as the mutual membership of the EU helped to usefully blur the boundaries on the island of Ireland to help make the Good Friday Agreement possible, so Brexit helps to make the prospect of Scottish independence look less possible.
So could we have the pre-1801 Union flag back?
And I can't say I fancy the prospect politically - a nightmare of perpetual Tory government broken only by the occasional spell in power of Ingerland Forever (or whatever this new nationalist party of Nigel's ends up being called).
The Syrians should investigate whether she has committed any crimes on their territory. And if she has, prosecute.
It is difficult for us to prosecute unless we can get the evidence which would be challenging without the co-operation of the Syrian authorities.
If she is sent here, I would arrest her pending an investigation into whether she has committed any crimes (as well as for her own safety and ours - she is unrepentant about her allegiance to IS) and take the child into care so that it can be brought up by a decent family. If she is released, she should be made to go into the Prevent programme and kept under close observation until we can be confident that she is no longer a danger.
But I would not strive to bring her back here.
I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
That is very kind, thank you.
I'm also not convinced a large proportion of north Walians see rule from Cardiff as at all preferable to that from London. There's quite a cultural divide and poor communications between the two.. and certainly in the north-east, the focus is towards Liverpool and Manchester more than Cardiff.
The strength of feeling, population size and unity of Scotland may push it to a different conclusion, but I don't see it with Wales.
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1096077857984528386
It's the difference between 10% and 11% of 45% of 439 - so that's a difference of 2 [weighted] people [well, 1.98, but I rounded up].
Plus the People's Vote reason is just one of a number of possible Brexit-related reasons, some of which might be considered to include not supporting a People's Vote, but being more general and encompassing uselessness more generally (though that also applies to the antisemitism option also).
There's insufficient evidence for the conclusion drawn - though the result is striking nevertheless.
I would have more respect for a grouping of MPs whose basic tenet was "Fuck off with your Brexit. Not gonna happen on my watch." Those dancing around claiming to "honour the vote" whilst doing everything to block it? Arseholes all.
I've just had the monthly 'report' sent out by the local MP, Priti Patel, and I quote
'Priti will continue to work with colleagues and the Government to seek revisions to the Withdrawal Agreement as well as pressing to ensure that this country is fully prepared to leave the EU on 29 March 2019 under any circumstance.'
Else where she says she is 'working for Witham'
How a Hard Brexit in about six weeks time is in our interests is a complete mystery to me. However, perhaps colleagues can explain.
NI would be a bit of a hospital pass for the Republic. Should the NI vote for it, the Republic would find it difficult to say no, but the financial and other costs would be huge.
Scotland probably could and should go for independence if it can join the EU as a consequence.
Scotland, though, is far less certain. 55/45 last time - not exactly a landslide - and with Brexit fallout so unpredictable and potentially turbulent, it would not be a massive surprise if they opt for Indy at some point in the next 10 years or so.
I have sympathy for real victims - the Yazidi women subjected to the most appalling torture and rape and brutality and death, the Christian communities assaulted by IS, the innocent Syrians and Iraqis and Kurds subjected to their brutality. Those who made a conscious decision to choose evil from the comfort of their freedoms in a civilised country I have very little sympathy for indeed.
Miss Cyclefree, quite.
And don't get me started on the cost of their electricity. Or the landfill costs for their rubbish. And as for the daily transit tolls, to commute back out of the M25 every night...
It's like asking for a chocolate cake and being given a single M&M.
I'm not absolving her of blame for crimes she may have committed in Syria. There is no suggestion of an amnesty.
She does, however, remain a British citizen and possible victim in all of this, to one degree or another. Your approach to a heavily pregnant 19 year old seems to be "let her rot over there", which is frankly heartless and not a little disturbing. Especially after conceding she wasn't the one responsible for the decision to go in the first place.
Essentially deal with her if she ends up here but make no effort to bring her back.
Oh. He didn't? You sure?
In London today for a Conference and walked round Parliament Square as the double decker "Leave" bus kept circling. Ah, the theatre. By the by, magical to walk down Horse Guards this morning - a part of London I don't often see but beautiful to see the Palace through the trees.
On topic, I won't die in a ditch for the Union unlike Theresa May. If the population of Ulster votes freely and fairly to secede and join the Irish Republic fine (ditto for Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, London or Surrey not that I expect any of them to join the Irish Republic (except perhaps Surrey)).
I suppose the thorny question (as it was before) is who gets to vote. Should the franchise be extended to Ulster-born people residing in the UK or even the Republic of Ireland and why stop there? I don't know.
Another one of life's conundrums seems to be what (if anything) will facilitate a Labour split. 248 Labour MPs voted against the WA in mid January but I suppose if some of them were to be no longer part of the Parliamentary Party that might change. I wonder if May is hoping for a Labour split (divide and conquer) or terrified (new Party sweeps ahead in polls, some Conservatives jump ship too). She seems to have her own issues with Mr Grieve.
Nearly 40 years on from the Limehouse Declaration and the launch of the SDP (what a mad time that was), could we be looking at something similar or very different? If they broke away now, would a new Party (along with the Brexit Party) seek to run candidates in local elections - would Labour Council groups split as well allowing for changes of control?
Back on topic, the question for me is whether agreement to a second independence referendum would be the price for SNP support for a minority Labour administration at Westminster?
https://www.centreforcities.org/blog/four-mayors-good-too-many-wasted-years-bad/
The Government's preferred mayoralty devolution is for City Region majors, not one encompassing the whole of Yorkshire.
Although independent London's ten million people crammed into tiny, multiple occupancy dwellings, rip-off prices and with filth and crime and atrocious air quality on the streets - who in London will notice the difference?
Hang on...