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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do Farage’s claims about 100k people signing up for his new pa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do Farage’s claims about 100k people signing up for his new party stand up?
What do you mean by “signed up to”? Are you claiming 100,000 members, which would be twice as many as UKIP had, despite Arron Banks work on lapsed members. Or are the 100,000 just vague expressions of interest?
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Entirely legitimate purchase if, for example, you are organising a party on the 29th March.
Tell me when Others hits 10% in the polling.
And @Scott_P
Have journalists given up doing basic research any more?
https://www.thebrexitparty.org/
There's two forms here, one that says "Coming Soon. Register Your Interest", collecting emails and phone numbers, and the other that says "Donate to Us" with an external link to a Paypal site to donate a Sterling amount.
There's also a few social media links to "official" Twitter and Facebook pages.
There's no way to become a member and no way to join the party, anyone claiming numbers for either is being very misleading.
A good journalist might be asking, a couple of months down the line, for a list of foreign donors via the Paypal link. I wonder if Paypal can provide the necessary detail on foreign donations to satisfy the Electoral Commission.
Which outcome to the Article 50 process do the British people want? by Benjamin Lauderdale
It presents a national and parliamentary constituency-level analysis of the British public’s preferences regarding the resolution of the current Article 50 withdrawal process from the EuropeanUnion, using YouGov data (sample size 51833).
http://benjaminlauderdale.net/files/papers/LauderdaleBrexitDealPreferencesMRP.pdf
That and The Keys to Downing Street: Leave-Voting Marginals by Richard Johnson
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/the-keys-to-downing-street-leave-voting-marginals/
support the electoral rationality of Corbyn's position on Brexit.
Floater said:
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And the other EU airlines that have gone under?
This isn’t aimed at you but where would this place be if people didn’t post “facts” which reveal they have no bloody clue. What was BMI regional’s fleet, legacy profitability, RASK, CASK, business plan and business proposition? What have fuel prices done which haven’t affected other airlines in the same way?
Perhaps we could discuss the failures of Air Berlin or Alitalia or Air Comet or Air Madrid or Cimber or Small Planet or Eurolot or or or.
'Blaiklock has been highlighted in the media for articles she posted on The Conservative Woman in which she discussed introducing hanging for drug dealers and argued that food banks are contributing to obesity in low-income families, who should be eating potatoes, being cheaper and healthier. She has also been noted for her anti-Muslim statements written on a range of conservative websites.'
Not sure why she felt the need to leave Batten era UKIP.
A split Labour party under FPTP is electoral suicide and gives the utterly incompetent Tories a free hand - it certainly doesn't lead to the cancellation of Brexit. There's already a "cancel Brexit" party led by some guy named Vince and they're not exactly surging in the polls.
It's from the 'they are scared of X and that is why they criticise y' school of reaction.
Or perhaps it's a class thing. One of the things I find most fascinating about the split of (demise of?) UKIP is the transformation from the double breasted blazer bomber command tie home counties brigade to being the party of the salt of the earth, hey tommy tommy football "fan" party.
Class has always been the dividing line of British politics, hence Labour and the Tories.
I suspect there are plenty of former Kippers who don't want to be part of a working class party.
You can see the headlines now:
"British Bullldogs" are mainstay of Farage's New Party.
I think it's also clear that Dave's poor renegotiation was a huge factor in the leave decision, part of me still thinks that if we'd just had an in/out referendum without Dave's deal the In campaign would have won by a thin margin. The fact that Dave promised so much and achieved so little with the EU calling it gold made them look completely incredulous and the British public are notoriously good at spotting a fake.
A Corbyn led Government would look to actively dismantle the economic models and security partnerships of Britain of the last 50+ years.
It'd make Theresa May's Government look like a teddy bear's picnic.
It’s almost certain that the day the referendum was lost for Remain was the day Dave unveiled his ‘deal’, 23rd Feb 2016 from memory. It said that it was impossible to negotiate with the EU, they didn’t care about the UK, and that the Cameron government thought they’d actually accomplished something.
And gladdening reading for Remainers.
The deal was a turd dressed up as a triumph.
Remainers often like to laugh at leavers for not knowing our place in the world.
But the truth is that deal told us everything we needed to know about how the EU sees us. Their contempt for us. Our utter irrelevance to them. Blowing the "it's better to be an influential voice within the EU" remainer argument out of the water.
We are better, and stronger, out of it.
And everything that’s happened since the referendum only reinforces that view.
The context is different now, the split will happen because politicians on all sides are forced in to it. But that doesn't mean nothing meaningful will come out of it. A new party (ie without the baggage of the liberal democrats) which is focussed on reentering the EU could gain a lot of support. It could be incredibly disruptive to both the labour and the conservative parties, particuarly if we end up with no deal - it is as bad as people think it will be, and the blame can be pinned on the two main parties.
There will be so much about the whole of our relationship with the EU for the past 20 years that will be studied for decades as a What Not To Do. By all concerned.
Ok, I am now on another train and so can continue the convo from downthread. Yes, the point one needs to comprehend is that the aim is to get a plurality in a seat, not a majority. The fact that seat-x voted 60/40 in terms of Leave is not relevant in itself, it's a question of how cohesive the votes are: if you can get all the Remain votes but the Leave votes are distributed amongst two or more parties, then you may win 40/30/30. In the specific instance of Labour Leave, there's little point in aiming for the Leave vote if you can't compete (if Labour, Con and Ukip are all competing for Leave votes, it's difficult to see Lab winning) and/or you lose more Remain votes than you gain Leave votes.
If Labour could arrange a by-election in a majority Leave constituency, it would be interesting to see them put this to the test and stand an avowedly Leave candidate, see if his vote went down or up
He was way out of his depth and that's why we are we are.
The amount of times I see people opining on what headline A means for the Industry I work in.
Then you follow up it becomes clear they are just using a headline to push their viewpoint without understanding the underlying facts.
At times it is a bit like that old (new) Labour practice, just keep repeating the lie and hope enough of it sticks.
In the same way Australia or New Zealand or Canada do.
Yes, we're a second rate power. No delusions of imperial grandeur here.
But the EU "deal" made it very, very clear that from within the EU we had about the same power as Merthyr Tydfil has by being part of the UK.
Better to be an independent nation making its own choices than a minor province which has devolved its decision making powers to somewhere else.
The day I have the ability to vote Merkel out for that decision is the day the EU becomes remotely democratic. Until then, all I hear from you is the same tired old argument about it in some way being racist to want to have control over your own borders.
For instance, I'd argue that a referendum was inevitable: there was just too much clamour for one - and not just in the Conservative Party. If Cameron hadn't done it, someone else would have within a few years. A referendum as an issue was never going to go away: part because of UKIP, and partly because of the EU's deaf ear.
(And at least with my lot, there's the hope they'll grow up some day!)
For a start, it implies the likes of Pidcock and Burton are not round the bend. Such we know isn't the case.
I get the impression that a lot of remain voters think being in the EU means rampaging around the world beating up smaller countries.
I would have posed the question as - Name one beneficial reason why the UK should leave the EU.
Works both ways.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2705089.stm
European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana has said the case for war against Iraq has not yet been made - making a thinly-veiled attack on the crisis' "hawks".
You only have to look at the crowds who turn out at the regular hate fests to see the demographic . Congratulations to all the grannies and grandpas who love telling everyone they’d do anything for their grand kids but who decided to throw them under a bus and make them second class citizens of Europe .