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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange LAB’s chances of winning most seats ne
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange LAB’s chances of winning most seats next time drop to a 41% chance
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
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Meanwhile, 946 hours to Brexit.
A prize for recognising the town in the aerial photo?
Center of what exactly?
Penistone and Stocksbridge - ultramarginal
Stockport, very safe Labour
Wavertree, ultrasafe Labour
Ilford South, ultrasafe Labour
Nottingham East, very very safe Labour
Luton South, very safe Labour
Streatham, ultrasafe Labour
So only Smith might give the Tories a seat if she runs next time round; I'd expect the rest to be safe Labour holds even if the MPs ran as independents. I doubt any of them can win without the Labour mark.
Deep joy.
Colours Grey
CL - Yes
CU - Yes
AS - Yes
GS - Yes
AC - ?
LB - 2 tabled but withdrawn
MG - ?
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-02-15/could-a-seemingly-inevitable-split-in-the-labour-party-be-the-next-outcome-of-brexit/
If my maths is right this means that Labour has now lost more than half of its gains at the 2017 GE.
On the main story of the day: I have never voted for a Labour candidate (although I was seriously tempted last time as my MP is Steve Baker, but the rumbles on PB that it was going to be much closer than anybody expected meant I couldn’t risk it) but the prospect of a Labour Party (or replacement) that is actually electable is vital for our democracy. The prospect that Corbyn is electable would be even worse.
Given that Corbyn is also a leaver, that is enough.
It now might get interesting for reluctant Tories.
In the long term, I would expect a return to more traditional left/right politics with the real battle ground in the centre. I would hope that the more extremes of left and right are sidelined once the brexit dust has settled.
That said, Corbyn gets his wish for perpetual opposition. Power without responsibility!
Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston I could absolutely see jumping.
Now Adam Langlethingy
If only Corbyn hadnt completely ignored AS
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/1029685536951345152
Finchley and Golders Green might be worth a pop I suppose, but no seat is marginal wrt TIG at the moment
That’s what pushed them.
What else had they to lose?
Corbyn would be happy one suspects for the splits to continue down to total purity with just him on the allotment.
One of the few exceptions is Kensington - the "Independents" might have an outside chance of sneaking a win on a 3-way split vote there.
Unfortunately the not so magnificent 7 even couldnt meet this minimum requirement.
Grieve is actually rather socially and fiscally conservative, if rather liberal on crime & justice and one nation on everything else, including the EU.
Furthermore, as someone who believes that a deal is by far the best (or least worst) outcome, I feel that May is finally going about this the right way. I have tried to "war game" her strategy and have concluded the following:
1. Her ultimate goal is to put a deal to parliament with a compromise on the backstop. Thanks to the Brady amendment, she knows that this would have parliamentary backing and she is therefore able to tell the EU in clear terms what they need to do.
2. As can be seen from the EU reaction to the prospect of No Deal in recent weeks, putting forward No Deal as the only alternative gives the EU incentive to negotiate in a collaborative manner.
3. Even in the event that she is unable to gain any kind of concession from the EU, the Spelman Amendment shows that there is a parliamentary majority against No Deal, so if she were to present any deal to parliament at the last minute with No Deal as the only alternative then she is also likely to win.
4. While an extension to pass various bills may be required once a deal is agreed, an extension to negotiate a deal is both pointless (as we are only arguing one detail) and counterproductive, as unless she gets a full concession from the EU she needs the time pressure to get her deal through.
5. The above only works if No Deal is the alternative position. Removing No Deal removes all incentive for the EU to negotiate collaboratively and allows MPs hoping to remain to vote it down.
6. If all of the above fails the EU is sure to grant an extension in order for both sides to avoid No Deal. I do not think for a minute that May is happy to allow No Deal to happen and may be forced down the referendum route.
For those reasons, so long as she sticks to her negotiating principles, I expect a deal to be passed, which while flawed, is already seen as by far the least worst option in polls. A deal will, I expect, keep the tory party together while the labour party is hopelessly split.
The Conservative Party are very wise to it.
I've seen stirring by loons like Banks who aren't even Tories. Nothing by actual Tories.
The 1% where I don't is on your point 6.
You think her last resort is to offer REF2. I think it is to call a GE.
Conservative Remainers that have stuck with the Conservative party today are either doing so out of fear of Jeremy Corbyn or Stockholm Syndrome.
“Chávez, with good reason, was suspicious of the country’s traditional business elite, so he created a new one,” says Scharfenburg. “Through its government connections the new elite amassed huge fortunes, both by over-billing state entities and through preferential access to dollars, which became a huge opportunity for self-enrichment.”
In 2003 Chávez pegged the bolivar, the national currency, to the US dollar. As the bolivar devalued in real terms, huge arbitrage options opened up for individuals and companies who could buy dollars at the official rate and sell them on the black market, often at over 100 times their purchase value.
With a dollarized economy, visa-free travel and a financial sector with a habit of turning a blind eye, Panama – along with Miami, Spain and Nicaragua – became a favourite destination for offshore investment and, for a while, the boligburgues could lead their often ostentatious retirements undisturbed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/18/panama-papers-tightened-the-noose-on-offshore-assets-of-maduros-inner-circle
I guess TMay may not want to rely on them but it at least potentially changes the dynamics.
The Govt's deal could potentially pass and the DUP wouldn't be able to bring down the Govt.