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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The seven’s great strength is that they’ve not tried to be too
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The seven’s great strength is that they’ve not tried to be too ambitious
In March 1981 I was working at BBC News on the day of the famous Limehouse declaration which saw the launch of the SDP, the last big break away from the Labour Party. This was a massive development which until yesterday shaped our views of what a breakaway should look like.
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Edit: and first.
Getting some international recognition already.
If the independent group of former Labour MPs becomes a new political party with candidates standing for Parliament in the next General Election, which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the group?
Don't Know: 55
Umunna: 30
Berger: 8
And adding some 'star power' may not help:
If the independent group of former Labour MPs becomes a new political party with candidates standing for Parliament in the next General Election, would you be more or less likely to vote for it if Tony Blair was the leader rather than one of the MPs who formed the group?
More: 17
Less: 45
Neither: 25
DK: 12
So the challenge is, how do they stay in the news? More defections will help - but the 'Brexit' angle doesn't seem to be cutting through:
Which of the following do you think is the primary reason for the seven MPs to resign from the Labour party?
Corbyn leadership: 43
Anti-Semitism: 23
Labour Brexit stance: 17
Where they have been clever is in leaving the precise platform and stance of the new entity unclear, in the hope that they can pick up a chunk of Tories (as appears might have been the original plan last week?) before setting anything in stone,
Can I just remind people of this comment I made on the 26th July last year:
“Whether Labour are just being incredibly careless and complacent or whether Corbyn really is a closet Nazi, it is quite clear that this goes way, way beyond Livingstone making stupid remarks on Zionism or a shadow equalities minister calling for ethnic cleansing. This is now a systemic issue that implicates the entire Labour movement.
And unfortunately for Labour it has come (1) at the moment people are fed up with Brexit and (2) at the start of the silly season when the papers are looking for stuff to fill column inches.
I’ve been told before that there are not many Jews in this country. That is of course true. But if people get it in their heads that Labour are racist (and potentially criminals in light of other events) it’s going to hurt them badly.
I do hope all the scoffers are satisfied with the way their predictions turned out...
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1097688133053935617
I don't think it will go anywhere though. They seem more Unionist Free Traders or National Labour to me than Liberal Unionist (which was the last splitter party I can think of to have a long and meaningful existence). The best they can realistically hope for is to be Peelites moderating a new Liberal party.
Is there a word for people like Owen Jones who bandy about accusations of racism in bad faith?
Edit - come to think of it, Godfrey Bloom of UKIP did it once. So let's call it a Bloomer.
Apart from anything else, it will piss off Owen Jones more than anything else we could possibly imagine...
Edit - I think, if I'm honest, the most likely scenario is that if Labour lose the next election any survivors will be allowed back in under a new Labour leader, a bit like the 'slice off the top' that followed the Carlton Club meeting in 1922, or can rejoin as private members. I just doubt if many of them would survive an election.
Structurally the two main parties do not reflect the country and crucially remain voters have not found a home under FPTP. A mistake to underestimate this.
One weakness is having Chuka as a putative leader- I just don't think he has it.
F1: No Williams yesterday, which we knew about, probably none today or tomorrow either. Bit iffy.
On the other hand, even with all that, they're likelier to be in better shape than they were with the dog of a car they had in 2018.
Somebody who cant use apostrophes correctly isnt worth listening to.
https://twitter.com/andrewspoooner/status/1097548755245678592
Similarly, the Tories could lose a serious number too, and be left with the ERG loons.
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “MPs in the Conservative Party who oppose Brexit and the way their party is handling the Brexit process should join the independent group of former Labour MPs to form a new party.”
OA (Con 2017)
Agree: 40 (30)
Neither: 26 (27)
Disagree: 18 (30)
DK: 15 (14)
Unsurprisingly, LibDem voters are most in favour of Tories jumping ship (59)
A more likely outcome is a chunk of the ERG split off because May is not going to give them No Deal (well, not deliberately). Now that would be desirable, and would go a long way towards clearing matters up.
And remember that recent polling shows a good two thirds of the electorate say they don’t think they are represented by the existing parties.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Null_character
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1097640007655964672?s=19
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1097639069616619520?s=19
Much more tempting to jump ship when you’re in opposition with no prospect of influencing your leader’s policy or Government policy.
This could have been offset by numbers but 7 is at least 35 too small. They need others to sign up, ideally (from their point of view) including some Tories and they need this quickly. At the moment they are in danger of simply disappearing.
My provisional view is that this is going to be a zephyr in a thimble.
Only lasted a few weeks mind.
Had the same thought a few weeks back and bought some at around 35. Glad I did now. I have no idea who Other might be. Shame Screaming Lord Sutch is no longer with us. This moment was made for him. Nevertheless the way the Two main Parties are behaving, anything is possible.
https://twitter.com/RobinBHarding/status/1097756788588335106
Short version 'Brexit didn't cause it, but doesn't help and is a face saving reason'
Predictable results at this point but ones that should be encoraging to the new group. We know already that three out of four Labour MPs don't like Corbyn's leadership and now they have a new home prepared for them it'll only take time and courage before they move across.
We've never had two less attractive political parties. Neither have we had so many voters looking for a home. This grouping should keep doing what they're doing now - collecting the disaffected from the unrepresented middle ground-until hopefully a 'Macron' will appear and Corbyn and his clique and Rees Mogg and his can return to their niche concerns.
I am.not sure the Greens should be linked with the grouping though, most Greens are left-wing, even Corbynista rather than centrist thoughts share the group's hostility to Brexit.
Of course if Article 50 is extended and Brexit is revoked or we end up with BINO or May's Deal eith the backstop then Farage's new Brexit Party will gain traction so Brexit will shape our politics whichever way it goes
People are yearning for a big change - hence the vote for Brexit and the appeal of Corbyn. This lot aren't going anywhere.
He should stand in that by-election where the 1,000 year old MP just carked it.
Umunna still ahead of Berger as preferred leader though and difficult to see anyone else leading it.
Could end up Umunna leader and Soubry deputy (the latter has already removed reference to the Conservative Party from her social media)
https://global.honda/newsroom/news/2019/c190219beng.html
19 February, 2019 - Honda has today announced it will restructure its global manufacturing network. This restructure comes as Honda accelerates its commitment to electrified cars, in response to the unprecedented changes in the global automotive industry. The significant challenges of electrification will see Honda revise its global manufacturing operations, and focus activity in regions where it expects to have high production volumes.
No mention of the 'B' word.....
If that helps.
Verified account @BBCNormanS
"This is not a Brexit related issue" -
says Honda UK boss Ian Howells #r4today
Remoaners better try again.
doesn't mean they won't but it'll be on a timescale of years not months.
Guess that's why Turkey is closing too.
Even the FT Tokyo correspondent doesn't think the closure of a sub-scale loss making plant is purely down to Brexit.....
Even if the new grouping does well, it will attract its support more evenly than Labour or Tory, and therefore always be the most vulnerable to the evils of FPTnP.
Under say Kendall and Allen, it could go far.
The strategy should be to give the LibDems and Greens a free run in, say, a limited number of their target seats and fight the other 600-odd. Then introduce a fair voting system.
This may be greedy of us, but we need more defections and soon. I really with some Tories so it is not just a labour group. Doesn't matter if all those defecting could work in a party together later, it's about recognising wherever they fit it's not their current homes.
But the speculation a vote next week is crunch time eorties me as it means Corbyn could be sensible (it's possible!) and head off more trouble .
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1097769761386233857
Hopefully Honda will work with employees and government to minimise the impact on those affected by this closure.
What's immediately clear though, is that a certain element of the #FPBE crowd, particularly on Twitter, are overjoyed at and celebrating anyone who announces job losses. Not a good look.
Setting aside the poor wording, how likely do you think it might be that Honda - or any other given Japanese manufacturer - is thinking of the UK as their European production base for electric vehicle manufacturing post Brexit ?
Could end up Umunna leader and Soubry deputy (the latter has already removed reference to the Conservative Party from her social media)
I'd say Berger did her chances of being leader a whole heap of good yesterday. She came across as that rare political beast: somebody decent, acting for decent motives. Plus she has a perfectly compelling reason to leave behind her Labour Party roots.
Having a female leader would further distance the new grouping from Labour. As more MPs depart, what remains behind as Labour is going to have an ever more concentrated stench of piss about it.
Which is one of the reasons the timing of the Brexit endeavour could not be worse.
I think the difference is the appeal of Jenkins, Williams and Owen who were heavyweight ex-ministers. This lot are lightweights.
I'm betting that a group of supporters of the defectors start putting money on it, as the media hype increases. There's very little chance of it actually happening unless the defectors get up over 100, form a party and become the Opposition.