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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

The shifting sands of politics shift again. This must have not been an easy decision either. But it says a lot that some of the (ex) Tory MPs I respect the most have now left. https://t.co/xJmW5pq6NF

Read the full story here

dr_spyn

first.

dr_spyn

who will be next?

Be interesting to see if some Labour MPs cross over later today.

FrancisUrquhart

It is incredible to hear labour MPs like Mcdonagh on sky now...opening talking about labour becoming a racist stalinist party. And challenging jezza to stop this.

AndyJS

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Danny565

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1098181401491529728

TheWhiteRabbit

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

Labour in 2017 put together a manifesto their MPs managed to stand on...!

FrancisUrquhart

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

Same way as they all stood on a platform to deliver brexit and they will now be the remain / rejoin party.

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1098181896507318274

Gallowgate

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1098181896507318274

Semantics.

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenCatt/status/1098172731001061376

Labour about to lose control of Brighton.

TheWhiteRabbit

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1098181401491529728

The right response

(Hope you are listening Jeremy)

Danny565

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

Labour in 2017 put together a manifesto their MPs managed to stand on...!

But my question was about voters, not about MPs.

Unless Soubry has done a complete U-turn on all her views from the last 9 years (bar Brexit), what programme would she be willing to commit to that would appeal to Labour voters?

dr_spyn

A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

Andrew

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

Philip_Thompson

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Others (exc Speaker, exc Sinn Fein) =318

Philip_Thompson

Respectful letter from May. What any sane leader would put out in the circumstances.

Big_G_NorthWales

FPT

As I predicted a very gracious letter from TM to the three defectors and as Sky has just said, so much in contrast to Corbyn's attitude to his defectors

AndyJS

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Others (exc Speaker, exc Sinn Fein) =318

Before it didn't matter if Sinn Fein turned up. Now it would do.

felix

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

Why would ayone bother to explain anything to you? About anything?

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

It’s all going perfectly for jezza...the non-believers are jumping ship and the far left strengthing their grip on the party.

dr_spyn

Continued on page 94.

https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.

YBarddCwsc

FrancisUrquhart said:

It is incredible to hear labour MPs like Mcdonagh on sky now...opening talking about labour becoming a racist stalinist party. And challenging jezza to stop this.

She should be expelled.

There is a precedent.

Sharon Atkin (PPC for Nottingham East) was expelled for calling the Labour Party racist. By Neil Kinnock.

Scrapheap_as_was

A real pity.

david_herdson

TIG (assuming you count the three ex-Tories who say they'll sit "alongside" TIG, rather than outright joining them), is now bigger than the DUP, and are only 2 MPs off being larger than the Lib Dems (or 1 MP, if that MP was previously a Lib Dem).

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1098183931403399168

Numbers games.

TOPPING

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

Roger

A bigger grouping than the DUP which is significant. It's what the country and REMAINERS needed. This this does have the potential to be a game changer

david_herdson

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Others (exc Speaker, exc Sinn Fein) =318

Others, excl Speaker, excl DepSps, excl, SF, excl vacancies, excl MPs in jail = 313.

Barnesian

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

They can't. The only thing that holds them together is opposition to Brexit (and Corbyn). That's it.

Roger

dr_spyn said:

Continued on page 94.

https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.

Not a good idea positioning them as the most successful Labour Party ever.

3 election wins

2 regional wars.

MikeL

Govt working majority is actually now 7 (was 13 so 3 defections reduce it by 6) - assuming Lab wins Newport by-election.

However it's a bit better than that as:

- Lady Hermon voting for the Govt in VONC - takes it back up to 9.

- Three other Independents (non TIG) abstained in last VONC - so back up to 12 if they do the same again.

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

Polruan

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

Isn’t that pretty much what the two main parties have these days?

DonTsInferno_

dr_spyn said:

Continued on page 94.

https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.

They’re the party for people who did well out of the old regime and turn a blind eye to unsuccessful military interventions

Nigelb

more follows

And very likely more will follow.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1098186055713476608?s=21

Danny565

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

swing_voter

Surely a GE is a step closer - both TM and JC would love to see the TIG killed at birth.....

MikeL

Thread header needs correcting - TIG has 11 MPs not 10 (presumably forgot Joan Ryan).

Barnesian

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

The TIG group is a Tory-Lite Remainers club. It has Remain in common with the LibDems but not much else.

There seem to be four groupings:

Left, Leave Corbyn's Labour
Left Remain SNP, LDs, PC, Green
Right Leave May's Tories
Right Remain The TIG group

FrancisUrquhart

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1098186055713476608?s=21

He was spinning trying to get a people vote in yesterday’s speech.

Polruan

Roger said:

A bigger grouping than the DUP which is significant. It's what the country and REMAINERS needed. This this does have the potential to be a game changer

Presumably those numbers mean that if the Conservative party could be unified behind a policy supported by the Tiggers, May could ditch the DUP. Probably doesn’t change a lot in practice though, because everything after ‘unified’ seems superfluous. Realistically the only game-changer would be a few dozen more Labour MPs plus LDs formally aligning with Tiggers, giving the numbers to face down the ERG - though that would still require May to put Conservative unity behind the national interest which hasn’t looked that likely so far.

Richard_Nabavi

FPT:

AlastairMeeks said:

Retweeted by Paul Masterton - there is a continuing rustling in the arras of the Remainy end of the Conservative party:

https://twitter.com/SCrabbPembs/status/1098184025817133056

The minister to watch is Richard Harrington.

TOPPING

Sodium said:

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.

True - and yes possibly. But then the onus is on the LibDems to transform (again). Not sure I see that happening.

Sandpit

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC.

I can see Corbyn calling a vote of confidence next week after the Brexit votes, if only to smoke out the position of the TIG group on these matters.

BannedInParis

dr_spyn said:

Continued on page 94.

https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.

something something fighting the last war something

Big_G_NorthWales

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

dixiedean

MikeL said:

Govt working majority is actually now 7 (was 13 so 3 defections reduce it by 6) - assuming Lab wins Newport by-election.

However it's a bit better than that as:

- Lady Hermon voting for the Govt in VONC - takes it back up to 9.

- Three other Independents (non TIG) abstained in last VONC - so back up to 12 if they do the same again.

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

Although, the question is not so much VONC,, but whether this government is capable of getting controversial legislation through at all.
The deckchairs are being re arranged once more.
No closer to a Brexit decision.

Pulpstar

Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.

IanB2

Danny565 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

Labour in 2017 put together a manifesto their MPs managed to stand on...!

But my question was about voters, not about MPs.

Unless Soubry has done a complete U-turn on all her views from the last 9 years (bar Brexit), what programme would she be willing to commit to that would appeal to Labour voters?

We should be careful not to judge by the prism of the existing party structure. The issue isn't whether there are differences within the new proto-party, because obviously there are. The question is whether these are wider and less bridgeable than the differences within Tory as was and within Labour as was.

Foxy

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.

True - and yes possibly. But then the onus is on the LibDems to transform (again). Not sure I see that happening.

No need for a merger, just an alliance agreement for a coupon election.

david_kendrick1

Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.

Yes, it also gives him legs to re-pursue the conference policy as a means of running down the clock should the next MV fail.

Danny565

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

AlastairMeeks said:

Retweeted by Paul Masterton - there is a continuing rustling in the arras of the Remainy end of the Conservative party:

https://twitter.com/SCrabbPembs/status/1098184025817133056

The minister to watch is Richard Harrington.

Depending on the next couple of weeks, there might be a few to watch. NB:

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1098180822065180672

IanB2

swing_voter said:

Surely a GE is a step closer - both TM and JC would love to see the TIG killed at birth.....

There are tons of reasons why a GE would be wrong right now. Plus, now, the risk that it drops right into the middle of Tiggermania.

Dura_Ace

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1098181401491529728

May has got some fucking cheek. "Decent, moderate and patriotic". The current tory party is delivering the exact opposite of those three qualities.

FrancisUrquhart

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

Roger

dr_spyn said:

A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

It just gets better! All they need is Philip Green and Shamina Begum and they've cracked it

Pulpstar

david_kendrick1 said:

Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

TIG-Lib Dems might run on a coupon basis.

Tissue_Price

david_kendrick1 said:

Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

The LDs did very well in the locals there last year though (do you have any intel on that?) Obviously there's a long way to go with the TIG, but she looks in the best shape of any of them at present. It looks 50-50 to me.

IanB2

Sodium said:

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.

Their name would be Democrats. You heard it here first.

rottenborough

Roger said:

dr_spyn said:

A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

It just gets better! All they need is Philip Green and Shamina Begum and they've cracked it

No, they need David Ike for the full set.

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

david_kendrick1 said:

Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

TIG-Lib Dems might run on a coupon basis.

It would be utter insanity if they did not.

But we have been here before, for those as old as me.

AlastairMeeks

When was the last time that Parliament had so many independents?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Okwonga/status/1098187481915277315

SunnyJim

Brexit is the poundland glue binding the disparate parts of TIG together.

Once the UK exits (or remains) it will come apart in double quick time.

Danny565

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

Nobody knows how MPs vote until opposition parties start banging on about how they voted come election time.

Most people didn't know Theresa May had cut police numbers (in fact, I daresay quite a few people didn't even know she was previously Home Secretary) until Labour/Momentum started pushing that video of her telling the police they were "crying wolf" in the last few days of the 2017 election...

At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...

TheValiant

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Nope. Sinn Fein won't turn up, and Paul Flynn (and Fiona Onasanya) won't be in attendance at the moment. Government still have a majority of 3.

Polruan

IanB2 said:

Sodium said:

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.

Their name would be Democrats. You heard it here first.

Tiggeral Democrats?

FrancisUrquhart

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

Nobody knows how MPs vote until opposition parties start banging on about how they voted come election time.

Most people didn't know Theresa May had cut police numbers (in fact, I daresay quite a few people didn't even know she was previously Home Secretary) until Labour/Momentum started pushing that video of her telling the police they were "crying wolf" in the last few days of the 2017 election...

Abstaining in a vonc is totally different kettle of fish.

eek

https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1098188592902475776

IanB2

TheValiant said:

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Nope. Sinn Fein won't turn up, and Paul Flynn (and Fiona Onasanya) won't be in attendance at the moment. Government still have a majority of 3.

In Flynn's case there's no 'at the moment' about it.

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

When was the last time that Parliament had so many independents?

There were 12 elected in 1945.

GIN1138

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

Nicky Morgan's speedy tweet in response raises my eyebrows a little:

https://twitter.com/NickyMorgan01/status/1098178932904476672

I thought Nicky had been cast out of the gang for being a Judas and working with JRM on Malthouse Compromise?

Slackbladder

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...

And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.

Dura_Ace

Layla "Khaled" Moran turning it up to 11 on Sky News. It's like Baldy Old Vince is already dead.

El_Capitano

IanB2 said:

Sodium said:

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.

Their name would be Democrats. You heard it here first.

"Reformist" has been rumoured.

edmundintokyo

Tories taking a very classy tone so far, really shows up the Corbyn team.

Sunil_Prasannan

Roger said:

MattW said:

Roger said:

Two thirds of all MPs don't want to Leave the EU

Two thirds of Labour MPs don't want Corbyn as leader.

Parliamentary democracy rules OK!

Four fifths of MPs voted in support of leaving the EU ...

I must have missed that vote

At third reading, the Commons passed the bill by 494 to 122 on 8 February 2017

BannedInParis

Pulpstar said:

Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.

"you've called one. you failed. you've called a second. you will fail again. what's the point in you, Jeremy?"

rottenborough

There must be several pol journos with their kids on half term break who are cursing the school holidays today.

Roger

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As I predicted a very gracious letter from TM to the three defectors and as Sky has just said, so much in contrast to Corbyn's attitude to his defectors

....Fiddling while Rome burns

FrancisUrquhart

In other news, what the actual f##k...

Alabama newspaper editor calls on KKK to lynch Democrats

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-47295551

_Anazina_

_Anazina_ said:

Harris_Tweed said:

_Anazina_ said:

SandyRentool said:

_Anazina_ said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

Stupid.

Gateshead is not part of Newcastle. It is part of County Durham. A Mayor covering the area between Tyne and Tees would be my choice. Well, either a mayor or a Prince Bishop.

It has not been part of County Durham for more than four decades. Almost no-one under the age of 60 considers it so. Is Brixton part of Surrey?

They should have built City Hall on the southbank in Gateshead and had a proper stab at an outward-looking Metro Mayoralty, a la Greater Manchester and Greater London. Instead, they chose parochialism and inward-looking stupidity.

See also Andy Street in the West Mids, including cities which until 1974 were in Warwickshire (Brum and Cov) and Staffordshire (Wolverhampton). Plus odds and sods of historic Worcs and Shrops.

Had the WMCA only included stuff which was in Warwickshire - especially if the boundary was effectively in a city centre like Newcastle - people would have laughed.

Spot on. The North of Tyne thing should never have been allowed to happen. It is a geographical and economic nonsense, arguably worse than the disintegrated shambles they have currently!

Stereotomy

So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?

AlastairMeeks

edmundintokyo said:

Tories taking a very classy tone so far, really shows up the Corbyn team.

To be fair, they've had the opportunity to go to school on Labour's response, which has been a study text for how not to do it.

IanB2

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

david_kendrick1 said:

Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

TIG-Lib Dems might run on a coupon basis.

It would be utter insanity if they did not.

But we have been here before, for those as old as me.

The difference is that the LibDems won't be able to demand (and would probably accept not having) a 50/50 shareout, as quite reasonably they did in 1983. The obvious deal is for TIG to steer clear of say the top 50 LD targets and the handful of others where the Greens and PC are competitive, in return for a free run in the rest. The LDs have a lot less to lose in organisational and electoral terms than they did in 1981.

Danny565

Slackbladder said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...

And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.

So they'll be saying they consider a Brexit-implementing Tory government a lesser evil than a Labour government.

Do you see the issues this may cause with a few of their target voters?

Richard_Nabavi

Danny565 said:

Slackbladder said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...

And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.

So they'll be saying they consider a Brexit-implementing Tory government a lesser evil than a Labour government.

Do you see the issues this may cause with a few of their target voters?

Well, actually a Brexit-implementing Tory government a lesser evil than a Brexit-implementing Labour government....

OblitusSumMe

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Voting No Confidence now means either supporting Corbyn as PM or voting for a No Deal as there's no time to force an election before Brexit Day.

I think that means that the other opposition parties might well refuse to back a VONC, as it would effectively be a vote for No Deal. I don't think it works in Corbyn's favour.

Brexit in 899 hours.

kinabalu

I think this could be big. Perhaps the main thing they need, the Tiggers, is for the Tory leadership to be captured by the hard right in the way that Labour's has been captured by the hard left. In that case, given a good leader for both TIG and the LDs, and if they work in tandem, I can see a new centrist grouping winning many seats at a GE. For example, if JC vs JRM were to be the choice for PM laid before the electorate, then many will bridle at that and will appreciate a serious alternative.

Unfortunately (from the TIG viewpoint) I suspect the Tories are too pragmatic and power grubbing to allow that to happen. They will not choose a headbanger to replace TM. In which case we might be SDP Liberal Alliance all over again and the effect will be to hard-code the Tory Party into government for the foreseeable future.

But then - wild card - there is Farage's new reactionary populist party potentially surging to the right of the Tories. That could make it all very different this time.

Gosh, who knows. Really interesting time to be alive.

Sean_F

FrancisUrquhart said:

In other news, what the actual f##k...

Alabama newspaper editor calls on KKK to lynch Democrats

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-47295551

That's normal for Alabama.

AndyJS

Stereotomy said:

So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?

Very unlikely because most Tories were Leave supporters.

dixiedean

_Anazina_ said:

_Anazina_ said:

Harris_Tweed said:

_Anazina_ said:

SandyRentool said:

_Anazina_ said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

Stupid.

Gateshead is not part of Newcastle. It is part of County Durham. A Mayor covering the area between Tyne and Tees would be my choice. Well, either a mayor or a Prince Bishop.

It has not been part of County Durham for more than four decades. Almost no-one under the age of 60 considers it so. Is Brixton part of Surrey?

They should have built City Hall on the southbank in Gateshead and had a proper stab at an outward-looking Metro Mayoralty, a la Greater Manchester and Greater London. Instead, they chose parochialism and inward-looking stupidity.

See also Andy Street in the West Mids, including cities which until 1974 were in Warwickshire (Brum and Cov) and Staffordshire (Wolverhampton). Plus odds and sods of historic Worcs and Shrops.

Had the WMCA only included stuff which was in Warwickshire - especially if the boundary was effectively in a city centre like Newcastle - people would have laughed.

Spot on. The North of Tyne thing should never have been allowed to happen. It is a geographical and economic nonsense, arguably worse than the disintegrated shambles they have currently!

Particularly as I live south of Tyne. And am included. It is the historic county of Northumberland. Gateshead is similar to Newcastle. Rothbury, Haltwhistle and Berwick aren't.

tlg86

Quite a good picture:

https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/1098185459317071873

Richard_Nabavi

TBH it's far too early to speculate about VONCs and/or a general election. This is a highly fluid situation and for the moment completely dominated by the looming No Deal deadline.

OllyT

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

It would make more sense to break with the past and set up a new party that hopefully 90% of Lib Dems join as well

Stereotomy

Slackbladder said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...

And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.

Doesn't exactly scream confidence in their electoral abilities, does it?

david_kendrick1

The way Brexit is being handled, we'll move from just inside the tent with opt-outs, to just outside the tent with opt-ins.

Of course there will be administrative and clerking problems.

But in 2022, how many extra votes will the boast 'I'm an ardent remainer' be worth? The LDs excellent on-the-ground operation will be worth more. But---and this is the point--it is unlikely to be any better than last time.