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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With both CON and LAB having an interest in the Peterborough r

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With both CON and LAB having an interest in the Peterborough recall petition then the chances are that it will succeed

The Commons Research department has just issued a new paper on how recall petitions actually work. This is now an integral part of the electoral process and there a strict rules for their operation, campaigning and spending limits.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    Lock Her Up? :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342

    It's a real pity that Ian Paisley Jnr was not voted out.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,148
    Sean_F said:


    It's a real pity that Ian Paisley Jnr was not voted out.

    In Antrim North this was always a big ask and if there'd been a by-election he'd have stood again and won.
  • It only takes 7,250 signatures to trigger the by-election, which does seem achievable.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 52
    I see Owen Jones' Twitter has been taken over by the former Iraqi Information Minister again.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    Sean_F said:


    It's a real pity that Ian Paisley Jnr was not voted out.

    "Never! Never! Never!" :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,198
    This week's Moral Panic has reached PMQs.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,006
    OT. I've just had an email from my inurance company telling me that I will probably need a green card if i'm driving in Europe in the next 6 weeks.

    We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342
    Roger said:

    OT. I've just had an email from my inurance company telling me that I will probably need a green card if i'm driving in Europe in the next 6 weeks.

    We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.

    You should try living in a failed state.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,198

    Sean_F said:


    It's a real pity that Ian Paisley Jnr was not voted out.

    "Never! Never! Never!"
    ....Land

    A Wacko Jacko theme park in Ulster?!?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    Why's Jezza wearing a badge for Honda?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 427
    edited March 6
    Roger said:

    OT. I've just had an email from my inurance company telling me that I will probably need a green card if i'm driving in Europe in the next 6 weeks.

    We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.

    That tells me that you've never been to (or even read about) a banana republic or a failed state. A trivial bureaucratic inconvenience is not comparable to endemic corruption or a civil war.

    Either that or your post was tongue-in-cheek, in which case sorry.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    edited March 6
    Roger said:

    OT. I've just had an email from my inurance company telling me that I will probably need a green card if i'm driving in Europe in the next 6 weeks.

    And here was me thinking you flew first class to the Cote D'Azur! :D
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,414
    Roger said:

    OT. I've just had an email from my inurance company telling me that I will probably need a green card if i'm driving in Europe in the next 6 weeks.

    We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.

    I got that email. Free and a piece of piss to apply for.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,282
    It's very likely to succeed. Funnily enough I have friends in the constituency. They're pretty nuch apolitical so I'll ask them about it. They would be a decent bellweather.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342

    Sean_F said:


    It's a real pity that Ian Paisley Jnr was not voted out.

    In Antrim North this was always a big ask and if there'd been a by-election he'd have stood again and won.
    Oh I agree. In the most Unionist and Republican constituencies, you could put up a pug ape and it would get elected.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    PMQs: MayBot and Jezza having a row over kids knifing each showing us that however bad things get you can always rely on these two to fail to rise to the occasion...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,713
    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,445
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:


    It's a real pity that Ian Paisley Jnr was not voted out.

    In Antrim North this was always a big ask and if there'd been a by-election he'd have stood again and won.
    Oh I agree. In the most Unionist and Republican constituencies, you could put up a pug ape and it would get elected.
    provided it wore the correct rosette.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,148
    Brom said:

    Roger said:

    OT. I've just had an email from my inurance company telling me that I will probably need a green card if i'm driving in Europe in the next 6 weeks.

    We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.

    I got that email. Free and a piece of piss to apply for.
    LIfe is going to be more miserable out. Get used to it mate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,688
    Scott_P said:
    "The context of the other posts" suggests that the monster with the star of David was not anti-Jewish?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    GIN1138 said:

    Why's Jezza wearing a badge for Honda?

    Trolling the Tories.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:


    It's a real pity that Ian Paisley Jnr was not voted out.

    In Antrim North this was always a big ask and if there'd been a by-election he'd have stood again and won.
    Oh I agree. In the most Unionist and Republican constituencies, you could put up a pug ape and it would get elected.

    As long as said pug ape has ridden the goat or been baptized in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Is anyone counting the signatures as they go along? Will we get any form of updates or will it remain clouded in secrecy until the end of the period.

    If say by the end of week 2 the 10% threshold is met, will that be announced and the petition closed or will it remain open and secret for another month?

    What strikes me as likely to depress turnout is the 9-5 Mon-Fri hours. A very large proportion of the country is otherwise engaged Mon-Fri 9-5. That is one thing where we do very well with our Thursday voting is opening from early in the morning until 10pm.

    It seems to me it'd be better to cut the period in half to say 3 weeks, but on Thursdays through those 3 weeks have the stations open from early in the morning until 10pm.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,037
    One other thing I noticed about this is that the Petitions Officer doesn't count the petition signatures until the end of the six-week period. So it's possible that the 10% threshold could be passed early in the period and you would have to wait until the end to find out for certain. You could imagine that would feel like a long wait if there are lots of campaigners asking people to sign a petition they've already signed.

    On the other hand this means a really unpopular MP could face a huge recall vote, but I think I'd like to see a daily updated total.

    Is there a betting market on the percentage who will sign?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,828
    edited March 6
    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    Austerity meant knives were unaffordable. Gangs reduced to scratching each other with stolen plastic sporks.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,554

    Is anyone counting the signatures as they go along? Will we get any form of updates or will it remain clouded in secrecy until the end of the period

    Apparently it’s complete purdah until the end of the period - no running totals or commentary. Can’t imagine why MPs decided that.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368
    Anorak said:

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    Austerity meant knives were unaffordable.
    When I were a lad I had to carry a teaspoon for self defence, AND I WERE LUCKY!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,094
    edited March 6
    One thing that is being overlooked in regards rise in violent crime. I think the London riots was a pivotal point.

    The police response was utterly utterly inadequate. The gangs realized that they had absolutely nothing to fear from the plod, they were poorly organized, poorly prepared and overall just f##king useless. On the other hand, it is well reported that the gangs organized and mobilized quickly, and for several days had free reign to commit crime.

    Despite a few high profile cases, most people involved were never caught or punished.

    These kids are now the ones running the gangs. If they had zero fear of the police were there were more of them and there was stop and search, they are going to give even less of a crap now or the likely potential punishment even if they were caught.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,828

    Is anyone counting the signatures as they go along? Will we get any form of updates or will it remain clouded in secrecy until the end of the period

    Apparently it’s complete purdah until the end of the period - no running totals or commentary. Can’t imagine why MPs decided that.....
    From memory the restrictions apply broadly and probably preclude articles on this site.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    Is anyone counting the signatures as they go along? Will we get any form of updates or will it remain clouded in secrecy until the end of the period

    Apparently it’s complete purdah until the end of the period - no running totals or commentary. Can’t imagine why MPs decided that.....
    Makes sense I suppose. People are motivated by approaching a target, if come a week out the public knew only 0.6 more was needed it would be more likely to be found.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,586

    One thing that is being overlooked in regards rise in violent crime. I think the London riots was a pivotal point.

    The police response was utterly utterly inadequate. The gangs realized that they had absolutely nothing to fear from the plod, they were poorly organized, poorly prepared and overall just f##king useless. On the other hand, it is well reported that the gangs organized and mobilized quickly, and for several days had free reign to commit crime.

    Despite a few high profile cases, most people involved were never caught or punished.

    These kids are now the ones running the gangs. If they had zero fear of the police were there were more of them and there was stop and search, they are going to give even less of a crap now or the likely potential punishment even if they were caught.

    If they are in prison though at least they are off the streets and if they lose their knives through stop and search that also reduces the threat
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
    Hasn't some of the more turf/gang related stuff been orchestrated on social media? Swings & roundabouts I guess.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    Tory MP want's to ban washing machines and return to manglers and boiling up our smalls on stoves?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,094
    edited March 6

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
    If I remember Freakonomics did a bit on crime vs economy. It is inverted to what you would think. Economy down the pan has traditionally seen less crime and vice versa.

    Rather than the perceived wisdom that if people are struggling they steal more etc, it is thought when most people are struggling they have less stuff worth stealing, buying less drugs etc etc etc.

    When the economy is going well, more disposable income, people buy the latest greatest phone, out and about more wearing new trainers, clothes, jewellery, etc etc etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,586
    edited March 6
    Peterborough is 13th on the Tory target list, if the Tories win they are in overall majority territory, if Labour hold on and get a swing towards them we are in Corbyn minority government territory
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,828
    edited March 6
    I think this is the relevant bit. From here. Might encompass anecdata.
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2016/295/contents/made.

    124.—(1) A person must not, before the end of the last day of the signing period for a petition, publish—

    (a)any statement relating to whether any person has signed the petition where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by that person; or
    (b)any forecast as to the result of the petition which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given.
    (2) A person who contravenes paragraph (1) is liable on summary conviction to a fine or to imprisonment for a term not exceeding six months.

    (3) In this regulation—

    “forecast” includes estimate; and
    “publish” means make available to the public at large, or any section of the public, in whatever form and by whatever means.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
    Hasn't some of the more turf/gang related stuff been orchestrated on social media? Swings & roundabouts I guess.
    Indeed.

    I think there's a parallel with New York in the 90's "broken windows" policy. A lot of low-level crimes have probably been stopped, which stops a number of people entering a circle or life of crime, which stops some higher level crimes. But it will never stop everything and the gangs can indeed use it as a weapon.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,470

    One thing that is being overlooked in regards rise in violent crime. I think the London riots was a pivotal point.

    The police response was utterly utterly inadequate. The gangs realized that they had absolutely nothing to fear from the plod, they were poorly organized, poorly prepared and overall just f##king useless. On the other hand, it is well reported that the gangs organized and mobilized quickly, and for several days had free reign to commit crime.

    Despite a few high profile cases, most people involved were never caught or punished.

    These kids are now the ones running the gangs. If they had zero fear of the police were there were more of them and there was stop and search, they are going to give even less of a crap now or the likely potential punishment even if they were caught.

    Well I remember the left having a moan that the punishments were more severe than normally dished out to the London riot offenders. Over 1,000 were prosecuted, I can not give a percentage because I do not know who many people participated. Your point on the police response I agree with.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,520
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,443

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
    Isn't the answer simpler than that? in the 2011 Census there was a low number of mid-teenagers, reflecting low fertility rates in the mid eighties. Those numbers have now increased back to normal. The majority of knifings are by teenage boys on other teenage boys. My tweet below shows this in the columns of the population pyramid:

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,037

    What strikes me as likely to depress turnout is the 9-5 Mon-Fri hours. A very large proportion of the country is otherwise engaged Mon-Fri 9-5. That is one thing where we do very well with our Thursday voting is opening from early in the morning until 10pm.

    It seems to me it'd be better to cut the period in half to say 3 weeks, but on Thursdays through those 3 weeks have the stations open from early in the morning until 10pm.

    The midweek 9-5 is a minimum and "The petition officer must also make reasonable provision for the availability of the petition for signing at other times…"

    There is flexibility depending on the location used, but I would be surprised if there was not opening late at least one evening a week and during the day on Saturday.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,713
    HYUFD said:

    Peterborough is 13th on the Tory target least, if the Tories win they are in overall majority territory, if Labour hold on and get a swing towards them we are in Corbyn minority government territory

    Actually no matter what the result, we're in byelection territory.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
    If I remember Freakonomics did a bit on crime vs economy. It is inverted to what you would think. Economy down the pan has traditionally seen less crime and vice versa.

    Rather than the perceived wisdom that if people are struggling they steal more etc, it is thought when most people are struggling they have less stuff worth stealing, buying less drugs etc etc etc.

    When the economy is going well, more disposable income, people buy the latest greatest phone, out and about more wearing new trainers, clothes, jewellery, etc etc etc.
    My favourite Freakonomics points on crime was one of their original ones, that legalised abortion causes a drop in crime rates decades later.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,282
    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    Off the cuff I should say that main factor there would be the changing age profile of the population. Old sods like me are getting too old to be very dangerous.

    Also, I think the homicide rate in this country is really quite low, so small variations can be made to appear more significant than they perhaps are.

    Oh, and finally, since I'm on a roll here, I'm sure most homicides are committed by people known to the victim and would be unlikely to be affected by something like more coppers on the beat. (Not that I'm against more coppers, now that I am past my tear-away stage.)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,094
    One other thing I think is worth mentioning, that I have heard a number of interviews with those involved with county lines.

    With all the kids now have access to social media, especially Instagram, they see what all the new shiny stuff celebs and rich people have. Before people had that, their frame of reference was basically what your mates had, which was probably a pair of Air Jordans if they were really lucky.

    Those running the gangs have said they use this to encourage kids to get involved. It is pushing on an open door, as the kids see all the stuff other people from around the world claim to have, and the gangs also show it off as things you can get if you join us.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 348

    Is anyone counting the signatures as they go along? Will we get any form of updates or will it remain clouded in secrecy until the end of the period

    Apparently it’s complete purdah until the end of the period - no running totals or commentary. Can’t imagine why MPs decided that.....
    Can we bet on the percentage of her constituents that will sign it? I think she might top 50%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,586

    HYUFD said:

    Peterborough is 13th on the Tory target least, if the Tories win they are in overall majority territory, if Labour hold on and get a swing towards them we are in Corbyn minority government territory

    Actually no matter what the result, we're in byelection territory.
    Peterborough is a key bellwether though given Labour gained it from the Tories in 2017
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,520

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
    If I remember Freakonomics did a bit on crime vs economy. It is inverted to what you would think. Economy down the pan has traditionally seen less crime and vice versa.

    Rather than the perceived wisdom that if people are struggling they steal more etc, it is thought when most people are struggling they have less stuff worth stealing, buying less drugs etc etc etc.

    When the economy is going well, more disposable income, people buy the latest greatest phone, out and about more wearing new trainers, clothes, jewellery, etc etc etc.
    There are always criminals - the question is how society keeps them inactive. Two good ways are welfare payments and police activity. During Austerity the govt has squeezed both, and we're seeing the results.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,576

    Scott_P said:
    "The context of the other posts" suggests that the monster with the star of David was not anti-Jewish?
    There are three issue here which need disentangling:-

    1. What is the appropriate sanction for someone sharing, posting, expressing anti-semitic views? There seems to be no clear or consistent approach to this. But one is badly needed.

    2. How to distinguish between legitimate criticism of Israel (not anti-semitic, clearly) and that which is. Again, Labour has no clear and consistent view on this and some of the cases that have come out appear to suggest that Labour appears to strain towards finding the use of anti-semitic tropes acceptable if it can be said, however tangentially, that the target is Israel. That is a particular problem because it implies that anti-semitic language is acceptable in certain circumstances and drives a very large coach and horses through a claim to be zero tolerant. It would be the equivalent of saying that personal abuse of Muslims is acceptable on the basis that one is criticising Islam - the Tmmy Robinson approach. IMO both are equally wrong.

    3. Why is the Leader’s office involved in giving a view on possible sanctions. In a properly run disciplinary process, there should be an independent investigation report sent to an independent disciplinary panel, which comes to a view, based on clear policies. There should be no interference by anyone else. And there should be a right of appeal, again to an independent appeals body. So the disciplinary process seems flawed, liable to give rise to inconsistencies and liable to be full of actual or potential conflicts of interest.

    It is a hell of a mess. Before Falconer or whoever can even start looking at cases, it seems to me that Labour’s entire investigative and disciplinary process needs tearing up and starting again. It does not seem to me to be fit for purpose. I doubt whether any of the people involved in it have any investigative experience at all or the independence of mind and character to do what can be - indeed pretty much always is if you do it properly - a tough job.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
    Isn't the answer simpler than that? in the 2011 Census there was a low number of mid-teenagers, reflecting low fertility rates in the mid eighties. Those numbers have now increased back to normal. The majority of knifings are by teenage boys on other teenage boys. My tweet below shows this in the columns of the population pyramid:

    Could be. Typically, the homicide rate is 1.25 per hundred thousand, give or take, and has been at that level since the mid 19th century.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,882
    Scott_P said:
    Isn’t Kayla Bibby the one who was on TV the other day complaining that she was victim of “trial by media”. She’s the one who joked about “Jew process”.

    Ye Gods.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,094
    edited March 6
    Scott_P said:
    Jezziah will be along in a moment to tell us we are all missing the context.

    This is the crux of the issue with Labour isn't it. All parties will have people with dodgy views, antisemitc, Islamophobic, homophobic....however you don't expect the leadership of the party to be actively enabling this by arguing against their internal watchdogs that clearly disgusting shit is actually ok and/or lobbying against and massively delaying any punishment and quickly un-suspending people.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,713
    O/T, I'm usually very skeptical about how much "fact-checking" matters in politics, but Woody Johnson's lie about food poisoning seems like it might be a genuine backfire. Personally I had no idea that the rate of food poisoning in the US is about 10 times the rate in the UK.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,094
    edited March 6
    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,520

    Is anyone counting the signatures as they go along? Will we get any form of updates or will it remain clouded in secrecy until the end of the period

    Apparently it’s complete purdah until the end of the period - no running totals or commentary. Can’t imagine why MPs decided that.....
    Can we bet on the percentage of her constituents that will sign it? I think she might top 50%
    The lack of publicity is a problem - note how the Ian Paisley recall failed to reach 10%. I think the Peterborough one will succeed but it'll be about 25%.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368

    O/T, I'm usually very skeptical about how much "fact-checking" matters in politics, but Woody Johnson's lie about food poisoning seems like it might be a genuine backfire. Personally I had no idea that the rate of food poisoning in the US is about 10 times the rate in the UK.

    I'm sure John Humphreys pulled him up about it, right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,586

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Yes, the election of the mixed race Obama was racis
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 776

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.

    That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.

    Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
    If I remember Freakonomics did a bit on crime vs economy. It is inverted to what you would think. Economy down the pan has traditionally seen less crime and vice versa.

    Rather than the perceived wisdom that if people are struggling they steal more etc, it is thought when most people are struggling they have less stuff worth stealing, buying less drugs etc etc etc.

    When the economy is going well, more disposable income, people buy the latest greatest phone, out and about more wearing new trainers, clothes, jewellery, etc etc etc.
    Interesting logic. There is, however, a reasonably well established link between a weak economy and higher insurance claims (some combination of fraud rising, and people being more strapped for cash so more likely to make small claims where they would otherwise swallow the loss and maintain their no-claims bonus).

    For example, PPI claims as a result of unemployment went sky high in 2008-9 (as you would expect), but there was also a (smaller) uptick in disability claims as well. Possibly stress related illness, possibly management finding imaginative ways to reduce headcount; possibly fraud; I never found out for certain. It's been observed with motor and household as well, although the factors there are different.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,713

    O/T, I'm usually very skeptical about how much "fact-checking" matters in politics, but Woody Johnson's lie about food poisoning seems like it might be a genuine backfire. Personally I had no idea that the rate of food poisoning in the US is about 10 times the rate in the UK.

    Actually those numbers come from Sustain, so not sure how much I trust them, but BBC numbers also show a big difference: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47440562

    The US government's Centre for Disease Control says there are about 1.3 million illness from campylobacter and 1.2 million illnesses from salmonella a year, affecting about 0.4% of the population.

    It's based on information from infection surveillance centres in 10 states. That sample is used to give an estimate for the whole country.

    Across the UK in 2017, there were 63,946 confirmed cases of infection from campylobacter and 10,089 infections from salmonella, equating to 0.1% and 0.02% of the population respectively. Those figures are the actual number of confirmed reports around the UK, not estimates.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,951

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Logically then we ought to see an actor denied a role for being too dark skinned.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,037
    Cyclefree said:

    It is a hell of a mess. Before Falconer or whoever can even start looking at cases, it seems to me that Labour’s entire investigative and disciplinary process needs tearing up and starting again. It does not seem to me to be fit for purpose. I doubt whether any of the people involved in it have any investigative experience at all or the independence of mind and character to do what can be - indeed pretty much always is if you do it properly - a tough job.

    My understanding is that these leaks relate to the process as existed before it was torn up and started again by Formby - so it's not surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).

    Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?

    Why would you?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    Off the cuff I should say that main factor there would be the changing age profile of the population. Old sods like me are getting too old to be very dangerous.

    Also, I think the homicide rate in this country is really quite low, so small variations can be made to appear more significant than they perhaps are.

    Oh, and finally, since I'm on a roll here, I'm sure most homicides are committed by people known to the victim and would be unlikely to be affected by something like more coppers on the beat. (Not that I'm against more coppers, now that I am past my tear-away stage.)
    The UK is a very peaceful country. Some countries are horrendously violent. Latin America and the Caribbean typically have murder rates that are 20 - 90 times higher than our own (El Salvador is the worst).

    The factors seem to include:-

    1. Prosperity (however some poor countries are very peaceful, and some relatively prosperous countries are very violent);

    2. The honesty and efficiency of police forces and judicial systems;

    3. Strength of family structures (East Asia is very peaceful, apart from the Philippines) regardless of levels of prosperity;

    4. The drugs trade (see Latin America and the Caribbean. East Asians are utterly ruthless towards their own drug taffickers);

    5. Age profiles (younger societies tend to be more violent).

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,094
    edited March 6
    glw said:

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Logically then we ought to see an actor denied a role for being too dark skinned.
    No more black actors doing Shakespeare then, no matter how good they are at the role and how much star appeal they have....

    But hold on, we were told it was a positive thing and that Idris Elder should be the next James Bond, because that would be progressive.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,939
    Roger said:

    We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.

    Your post indicates that you've never been in a banana republic and you have no concept of what a failed state is like. Or you're suffering from a nasty case of hysterical remania. The standard cure is a cold shower.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,239
    Scott_P said:
    In the thread to that post someone asks why it's antisemitic ....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,094

    Scott_P said:
    In the thread to that post someone asks why it's antisemitic ....
    Its a total mystery.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368
    glw said:

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Logically then we ought to see an actor denied a role for being too dark skinned.
    Well, George Hamilton's career seems to have dried up a bit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,162

    My understanding is that these leaks relate to the process as existed before it was torn up and started again by Formby - so it's not surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).

    Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?

    Why would you?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342

    Scott_P said:
    In the thread to that post someone asks why it's antisemitic ....
    It isn't anti-Semitic. All that she was doing was making the point that the US is controlled by Jews.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,566
    On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.

    I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.

    Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:

    tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote
    21 March: Petition opens
    2 May: Petition closes
    3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not
    June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).

    My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,570

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Have they not heard of make-up?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Angela Smith will be out with a Dulux colour chart shortly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,443

    One other thing I think is worth mentioning, that I have heard a number of interviews with those involved with county lines.

    With all the kids now have access to social media, especially Instagram, they see what all the new shiny stuff celebs and rich people have. Before people had that, their frame of reference was basically what your mates had, which was probably a pair of Air Jordans if they were really lucky.

    Those running the gangs have said they use this to encourage kids to get involved. It is pushing on an open door, as the kids see all the stuff other people from around the world claim to have, and the gangs also show it off as things you can get if you join us.

    There has been an interesting trend in drug dealing to a Deliveroo type service using bicycle couriers, though usually with a rendezvous rather than home delivery. The US system is car based but seems to be bicycle in Leicester, it is covered well in this account of the US drug epidemic.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Dreamland-True-Americas-Opiate-Epidemic/dp/1620402505

    The old joke that a criminal is just a lower class entrepreneur has a grain of truth.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,594
    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    OT. I've just had an email from my inurance company telling me that I will probably need a green card if i'm driving in Europe in the next 6 weeks.

    We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.

    That tells me that you've never been to (or even read about) a banana republic or a failed state. A trivial bureaucratic inconvenience is not comparable to endemic corruption or a civil war.

    Either that or your post was tongue-in-cheek, in which case sorry.
    I have always needed this - nothing new about it at all. Same here in Spain ever since I first took out insurance 10 years ago.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    glw said:

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Logically then we ought to see an actor denied a role for being too dark skinned.
    No more black actors doing Shakespeare then, no matter how good they are at the role and how much star appeal they have....

    But hold on, we were told it was a positive thing and that Idris Elder should be the next James Bond, because that would be progressive.
    I love the fact that in that very article someone is quoted saying 'why can't Idris Elba be cast instead' and someone's responded 'because Idris Elba is trying to be cast as James Bond, not Serena's dad' (!!!)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,376

    Scott_P said:
    Isn’t Kayla Bibby the one who was on TV the other day complaining that she was victim of “trial by media”. She’s the one who joked about “Jew process”.

    Ye Gods.
    The one who said "Jew process" was called Jo Bird.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,282

    Scott_P said:
    Jezziah will be along in a moment to tell us we are all missing the context.

    This is the crux of the issue with Labour isn't it. All parties will have people with dodgy views, antisemitc, Islamophobic, homophobic....however you don't expect the leadership of the party to be actively enabling this by arguing against their internal watchdogs that clearly disgusting shit is actually ok and/or lobbying against and massively delaying any punishment and quickly un-suspending people.
    Even if you accept the Party's explanation, it shows a shocking lack of judgement by the officials in question. This Bibby creature may be guilty of nothing more than extreme immaturity but until she grows up she shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a serious political Party.

    All it needed was a short polite letter explaining that serious politics requires care and balance and that the nonsense she posted could cause great damage as well as offence - membership suspended, please reapply in five years time.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,037
    Scott_P said:

    My understanding is that these leaks relate to the process as existed before it was torn up and started again by Formby - so it's not surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).

    Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?

    Why would you?

    Meet the new process, same as the old process...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,589

    Is anyone counting the signatures as they go along? Will we get any form of updates or will it remain clouded in secrecy until the end of the period

    Apparently it’s complete purdah until the end of the period - no running totals or commentary. Can’t imagine why MPs decided that.....
    Makes sense I suppose. People are motivated by approaching a target, if come a week out the public knew only 0.6 more was needed it would be more likely to be found.
    The obvious improvement would be to declare it closed once the 10% had been met.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,380

    Scott_P said:
    Jezziah will be along in a moment to tell us we are all missing the context.

    This is the crux of the issue with Labour isn't it. All parties will have people with dodgy views, antisemitc, Islamophobic, homophobic....however you don't expect the leadership of the party to be actively enabling this by arguing against their internal watchdogs that clearly disgusting shit is actually ok and/or lobbying against and massively delaying any punishment and quickly un-suspending people.
    That really is shocking even by the standards we have come to expect from Corbyn's Momentum/Labour. Their protestations about the Israeli state and Palestine being the reasons for criticism of Jews really doesn't wash anymore. The underlying cause is that they equate Jewishness with support for capitalism, and many of them genuinely believe in the Jewish Conspiracy.

    Scary stuff that these racist lunatics have taken over one of our main political parties.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,376

    Scott_P said:
    In the thread to that post someone asks why it's antisemitic ....
    No doubt they're suggesting it might have been anti-Israel instead of antisemitic.

    Evidently not in this case, given the source of the image and given that Kayla Bibby was fully aware of the source.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    tlg86 said:

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Have they not heard of make-up?
    Isn't making yourself blacker errm err errm... :D
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,566

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    If there was a direct link between police numbers and crime, then you would expect all crimes to have increased since 2010, which they haven't. The rise in knife crime is complex and while police numbers are likely to be a factor, it's also a convenient excuse for Chief Constables.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 776

    O/T, I'm usually very skeptical about how much "fact-checking" matters in politics, but Woody Johnson's lie about food poisoning seems like it might be a genuine backfire. Personally I had no idea that the rate of food poisoning in the US is about 10 times the rate in the UK.

    Actually those numbers come from Sustain, so not sure how much I trust them, but BBC numbers also show a big difference: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47440562

    The US government's Centre for Disease Control says there are about 1.3 million illness from campylobacter and 1.2 million illnesses from salmonella a year, affecting about 0.4% of the population.

    It's based on information from infection surveillance centres in 10 states. That sample is used to give an estimate for the whole country.

    Across the UK in 2017, there were 63,946 confirmed cases of infection from campylobacter and 10,089 infections from salmonella, equating to 0.1% and 0.02% of the population respectively. Those figures are the actual number of confirmed reports around the UK, not estimates.
    Whoa, hang on. You seem to be comparing an extrapolated estimate for total cases (US) with actual reported cases (UK). I would expect a significant proportion of the total number to go unreported due to people choosing to manage their own symptoms (and also probably for a different proportion of Americans to report - on the one hand they tend to be more conscious about these things, but on the other lots of them have no insurance).

    Are we sure that this is comparing apples with apples?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,406

    glw said:

    Oh dear god, the woke are eating themselves...

    Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate

    But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.

    Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011

    Logically then we ought to see an actor denied a role for being too dark skinned.
    No more black actors doing Shakespeare then, no matter how good they are at the role and how much star appeal they have....

    But hold on, we were told it was a positive thing and that Idris Elder should be the next James Bond, because that would be progressive.
    Logically it ought also be possible to distinguish between a biopic about the success of an African American in a sphere in which they are significantly underrepresented, and.... fiction.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,443
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.

    Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
    Off the cuff I should say that main factor there would be the changing age profile of the population. Old sods like me are getting too old to be very dangerous.

    Also, I think the homicide rate in this country is really quite low, so small variations can be made to appear more significant than they perhaps are.

    Oh, and finally, since I'm on a roll here, I'm sure most homicides are committed by people known to the victim and would be unlikely to be affected by something like more coppers on the beat. (Not that I'm against more coppers, now that I am past my tear-away stage.)
    The UK is a very peaceful country. Some countries are horrendously violent. Latin America and the Caribbean typically have murder rates that are 20 - 90 times higher than our own (El Salvador is the worst).

    The factors seem to include:-

    1. Prosperity (however some poor countries are very peaceful, and some relatively prosperous countries are very violent);

    2. The honesty and efficiency of police forces and judicial systems;

    3. Strength of family structures (East Asia is very peaceful, apart from the Philippines) regardless of levels of prosperity;

    4. The drugs trade (see Latin America and the Caribbean. East Asians are utterly ruthless towards their own drug taffickers);

    5. Age profiles (younger societies tend to be more violent).

    I think there is a much stronger correlation with certainty of capture over duration of incarceration.

    Teenage criminals intrinsically are not people who think very far ahead!
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 348
    x

    Scott_P said:
    In the thread to that post someone asks why it's antisemitic ....
    The other reply to it says "it's not anti-semitic, it's anti-Israel"
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,037

    My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?

    Yes, the document Mike links to mentions that by convention the party that previously held the seat would move the writ to call the by-election. However, in this case she's currently Independent, so I don't know if the convention covers cases where an MP has been kicked out of their party.
  • On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.

    I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.

    Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:

    tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote
    21 March: Petition opens
    2 May: Petition closes
    3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not
    June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).

    My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?

    Quick question - if the threshold is passed before the 6 weeks is up, can the recall be announced early?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,713
    Endillion said:

    O/T, I'm usually very skeptical about how much "fact-checking" matters in politics, but Woody Johnson's lie about food poisoning seems like it might be a genuine backfire. Personally I had no idea that the rate of food poisoning in the US is about 10 times the rate in the UK.

    Actually those numbers come from Sustain, so not sure how much I trust them, but BBC numbers also show a big difference: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47440562

    The US government's Centre for Disease Control says there are about 1.3 million illness from campylobacter and 1.2 million illnesses from salmonella a year, affecting about 0.4% of the population.

    It's based on information from infection surveillance centres in 10 states. That sample is used to give an estimate for the whole country.

    Across the UK in 2017, there were 63,946 confirmed cases of infection from campylobacter and 10,089 infections from salmonella, equating to 0.1% and 0.02% of the population respectively. Those figures are the actual number of confirmed reports around the UK, not estimates.
    Whoa, hang on. You seem to be comparing an extrapolated estimate for total cases (US) with actual reported cases (UK). I would expect a significant proportion of the total number to go unreported due to people choosing to manage their own symptoms (and also probably for a different proportion of Americans to report - on the one hand they tend to be more conscious about these things, but on the other lots of them have no insurance).

    Are we sure that this is comparing apples with apples?
    I read it as extrapolating numbers from those 10 states to the full 50 states, not extrapolating numbers of reported cases to numbers of unreported cases. I could be wrong though
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.

    I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.

    Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:

    tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote
    21 March: Petition opens
    2 May: Petition closes
    3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not
    June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).

    My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?

    Quick question - if the threshold is passed before the 6 weeks is up, can the recall be announced early?
    It seems no.
This discussion has been closed.