Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate
But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.
Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
If there was a direct link between police numbers and crime, then you would expect all crimes to have increased since 2010, which they haven't. The rise in knife crime is complex and while police numbers are likely to be a factor, it's also a convenient excuse for Chief Constables.
One factor in the increase in knife crime is the increasing difficulty in getting hold of a gun. It follows that one solution would be to liberalise the gun laws.
I'm sure our transatlantic cousins in the National Rifle Association would approve of this, but suspect we're a little too squeamish to cope with the carnage which would doubtless ensue.
My understanding is that these leaks relate to the process as existed before it was torn up and started again by Formby - so it's not surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).
Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?
Blimey. That really is bad. I saw the one yesterday, and I had much more sympathy with the response, recommending a warning / training - which felt appropriate for an offence of "I think that mural looks good" with no previous. But this is indefensible - reckon there will be a putsch on Jennie Formby here, who seems to be causing trouble left right and centre?
On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.
I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.
Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:
tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote 21 March: Petition opens 2 May: Petition closes 3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
Quick question - if the threshold is passed before the 6 weeks is up, can the recall be announced early?
It seems no.
Counting does not take place until the six weeks are over.
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
If there was a direct link between police numbers and crime, then you would expect all crimes to have increased since 2010, which they haven't. The rise in knife crime is complex and while police numbers are likely to be a factor, it's also a convenient excuse for Chief Constables.
One factor in the increase in knife crime is the increasing difficulty in getting hold of a gun. It follows that one solution would be to liberalise the gun laws.
I'm sure our transatlantic cousins in the National Rifle Association would approve of this, but suspect we're a little too squeamish to cope with the carnage which would doubtless ensue.
What the NRA would advocate is to arm teenagers with guns, in order to reduce knife crime.
My understanding is that these leaks relate to the process as existed before it was torn up and started again by Formby - so it's not surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).
Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?
Blimey. That really is bad. I saw the one yesterday, and I had much more sympathy with the response, recommending a warning / training - which felt appropriate for an offence of "I think that mural looks good" with no previous. But this is indefensible - reckon there will be a putsch on Jennie Formby here, who seems to be causing trouble left right and centre?
Jennie Formby isn't causing trouble, she is behaving exactly as the leadership want her to.
My understanding is that these leaks relate to the process as existed before it was torn up and started again by Formby - so it's not surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).
Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?
Blimey. That really is bad. I saw the one yesterday, and I had much more sympathy with the response, recommending a warning / training - which felt appropriate for an offence of "I think that mural looks good" with no previous. But this is indefensible - reckon there will be a putsch on Jennie Formby here, who seems to be causing trouble left right and centre?
I think she's causing trouble, left, left and further left actually ...
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
If there was a direct link between police numbers and crime, then you would expect all crimes to have increased since 2010, which they haven't. The rise in knife crime is complex and while police numbers are likely to be a factor, it's also a convenient excuse for Chief Constables.
One factor in the increase in knife crime is the increasing difficulty in getting hold of a gun. It follows that one solution would be to liberalise the gun laws.
I'm sure our transatlantic cousins in the National Rifle Association would approve of this, but suspect we're a little too squeamish to cope with the carnage which would doubtless ensue.
Re guns, my understanding is that guns are more available than ever via Eastern European middle men who buy deactivated weapons and have them re-activated / shipped to the UK.
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
If there was a direct link between police numbers and crime, then you would expect all crimes to have increased since 2010, which they haven't. The rise in knife crime is complex and while police numbers are likely to be a factor, it's also a convenient excuse for Chief Constables.
One factor in the increase in knife crime is the increasing difficulty in getting hold of a gun. It follows that one solution would be to liberalise the gun laws.
I'm sure our transatlantic cousins in the National Rifle Association would approve of this, but suspect we're a little too squeamish to cope with the carnage which would doubtless ensue.
What the NRA would advocate is to arm teenagers with guns, in order to reduce knife crime.
Or at least ensure all teenagers carry knives. That way a bad guy with a knife could be stopped by a good guy with a knife ...
Totally O/t but life has been getting in the way of reading pb since early today. Just wanted to say that I found this mornings 'Pedley Podcast' with Theo Bertram most informative.
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
Yes, the document Mike links to mentions that by convention the party that previously held the seat would move the writ to call the by-election. However, in this case she's currently Independent, so I don't know if the convention covers cases where an MP has been kicked out of their party.
O/T, I'm usually very skeptical about how much "fact-checking" matters in politics, but Woody Johnson's lie about food poisoning seems like it might be a genuine backfire. Personally I had no idea that the rate of food poisoning in the US is about 10 times the rate in the UK.
Actually those numbers come from Sustain, so not sure how much I trust them, but BBC numbers also show a big difference: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47440562
The US government's Centre for Disease Control says there are about 1.3 million illness from campylobacter and 1.2 million illnesses from salmonella a year, affecting about 0.4% of the population.
It's based on information from infection surveillance centres in 10 states. That sample is used to give an estimate for the whole country.
Across the UK in 2017, there were 63,946 confirmed cases of infection from campylobacter and 10,089 infections from salmonella, equating to 0.1% and 0.02% of the population respectively. Those figures are the actual number of confirmed reports around the UK, not estimates.
Whoa, hang on. You seem to be comparing an extrapolated estimate for total cases (US) with actual reported cases (UK). I would expect a significant proportion of the total number to go unreported due to people choosing to manage their own symptoms (and also probably for a different proportion of Americans to report - on the one hand they tend to be more conscious about these things, but on the other lots of them have no insurance).
Are we sure that this is comparing apples with apples?
I read it as extrapolating numbers from those 10 states to the full 50 states, not extrapolating numbers of reported cases to numbers of unreported cases. I could be wrong though
Oh, I see. Wording later on in the article ("in both the US and the UK only the more severe cases of food poisoning will come to the attention of authorities") implies your reading is more likely correct.
To keep the woke happy, the next Bond must be a black (very dark skinned, no light skined need a apply) disabled trans (man who has transitioned to a woman) lesbian teetotal vegan pacifist.
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
Yes, the document Mike links to mentions that by convention the party that previously held the seat would move the writ to call the by-election. However, in this case she's currently Independent, so I don't know if the convention covers cases where an MP has been kicked out of their party.
TIG ought to move the writ
That would rather imply them claiming her as one of their own though surely?
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
If there was a direct link between police numbers and crime, then you would expect all crimes to have increased since 2010, which they haven't. The rise in knife crime is complex and while police numbers are likely to be a factor, it's also a convenient excuse for Chief Constables.
One factor in the increase in knife crime is the increasing difficulty in getting hold of a gun. It follows that one solution would be to liberalise the gun laws.
I'm sure our transatlantic cousins in the National Rifle Association would approve of this, but suspect we're a little too squeamish to cope with the carnage which would doubtless ensue.
Re guns, my understanding is that guns are more available than ever via Eastern European middle men who buy deactivated weapons and have them re-activated / shipped to the UK.
Which comes first? The Shipping or the reactivation?
Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate
But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.
Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
If there was a direct link between police numbers and crime, then you would expect all crimes to have increased since 2010, which they haven't. The rise in knife crime is complex and while police numbers are likely to be a factor, it's also a convenient excuse for Chief Constables.
One factor in the increase in knife crime is the increasing difficulty in getting hold of a gun. It follows that one solution would be to liberalise the gun laws.
I'm sure our transatlantic cousins in the National Rifle Association would approve of this, but suspect we're a little too squeamish to cope with the carnage which would doubtless ensue.
Re guns, my understanding is that guns are more available than ever via Eastern European middle men who buy deactivated weapons and have them re-activated / shipped to the UK.
Which comes first? The Shipping or the reactivation?
Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate
But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.
Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.
Is anyone counting the signatures as they go along? Will we get any form of updates or will it remain clouded in secrecy until the end of the period
Apparently it’s complete purdah until the end of the period - no running totals or commentary. Can’t imagine why MPs decided that.....
Can we bet on the percentage of her constituents that will sign it? I think she might top 50%
The lack of publicity is a problem - note how the Ian Paisley recall failed to reach 10%. I think the Peterborough one will succeed but it'll be about 25%.
It'll be interesting to see.
In favour of a high vote:
- the 'poll card' to each voter will help awareness ("this is for everyone, not just activists") - six weeks is a long time to vote - while there's no running total, I guess the reference to spending limits means there will be campaigning. - and in any case, there'll have been enough local discussion of the case ("she's a crook and still trousering £70k a year"), and this is a simple enough proposition to give her a kicking to make this reach beyond traditional voters. As a billy bonus, they don't have to trash the economy or bring politics to a grinding halt for 3 years in the process.
Mitigating that:
- "bloody hell.. we have to vote to get them in.. then we have to vote to get them out again? They're all as bad as each other ". - the limit of ten signing places isn't insurmountable in a fairly urban seat*, but it means far fewer places than we have polling stations, so people will have to make an effort. In addition, I note from the Commons paper that your signing place will be assigned to you.. so it's likely to be a library or something a ward or two away from you. That, or requesting a postal vote, does require a modicum of motivation.
(*I'd be interested to see how that worked out in the sticks. Probably a decent bet that if the member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber was subject to recall, there'd be a lesser chance of people trekking to their "nearest" allocated signing place! EDIT: I note David H has made a similar point. Apols for the repetition!)
On the food poisoning what is the incidence like in Israel given they have a long running FTA with the United States ?
I don't think they import much chicken though. Even if they do, I think it's required to be from kosher suppliers, which may or may not attract different levels of food poisoning.
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.
That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.
Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
Isn't the answer simpler than that? in the 2011 Census there was a low number of mid-teenagers, reflecting low fertility rates in the mid eighties. Those numbers have now increased back to normal. The majority of knifings are by teenage boys on other teenage boys. My tweet below shows this in the columns of the population pyramid:
On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.
I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.
Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:
tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote 21 March: Petition opens 2 May: Petition closes 3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
I believe Bercow gave notice to the HOC yesterday afternoon or evening and stated that he would be writing to the relevant Executive officer to begin the process. We have three Bank Holidays coming up in April/beginning of May which might affect the closure date for the Petition.
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
Yes, the document Mike links to mentions that by convention the party that previously held the seat would move the writ to call the by-election. However, in this case she's currently Independent, so I don't know if the convention covers cases where an MP has been kicked out of their party.
TIG ought to move the writ
That would rather imply them claiming her as one of their own though surely?
In 2010 the LDs moved the Oldham east writ after Phil Woolas had been deprived of his seat in the courts. Labour was trying to hold it later.
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.
That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.
Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
Isn't the answer simpler than that? in the 2011 Census there was a low number of mid-teenagers, reflecting low fertility rates in the mid eighties. Those numbers have now increased back to normal. The majority of knifings are by teenage boys on other teenage boys. My tweet below shows this in the columns of the population pyramid:
Corbyn argues police cuts are to blame for increased knife crime. May responds that, no, no, you've got it all wrong, it's actually our drug policy that's to blame.
Overall, homicides dipped to an unusually low level between 2009 and 2015, before rising slightly since then.
There was a common argument made in The Economist and others that Social Media and Mobile Phones were behind a lot of the falling crime figures. That previously bored and homemonal teenagers rather than getting up to mischief which escalates were instead wasting their time on their phones. Thus the rise in phone zombies led a corresponding fall in crime.
That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.
Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
Isn't the answer simpler than that? in the 2011 Census there was a low number of mid-teenagers, reflecting low fertility rates in the mid eighties. Those numbers have now increased back to normal. The majority of knifings are by teenage boys on other teenage boys. My tweet below shows this in the columns of the population pyramid:
On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.
I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.
Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:
tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote 21 March: Petition opens 2 May: Petition closes 3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
I believe Bercow gave notice to the HOC yesterday afternoon or evening and stated that he would be writing to the relevant Executive officer to begin the process. We have three Bank Holidays coming up in April/beginning of May which might affect the closure date for the Petition.
Thanks for the comment re Bercow. I'd missed that.
As far as I can see, bank holidays don't affect the 6 week signing period but would be taken into account for the 10 days' 'preparation time' (but there aren't any in England in the next 2 weeks).
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
Yes, the document Mike links to mentions that by convention the party that previously held the seat would move the writ to call the by-election. However, in this case she's currently Independent, so I don't know if the convention covers cases where an MP has been kicked out of their party.
TIG ought to move the writ
That would rather imply them claiming her as one of their own though surely?
In 2010 the LDs moved the Oldham east writ after Phil Woolas had been deprived of his seat in the courts. Labour was trying to hold it later.
On the other hand, the LDs were a party to that dispute and had real hopes of winning the seat at the outset.
On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.
I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.
Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:
tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote 21 March: Petition opens 2 May: Petition closes 3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
I believe Bercow gave notice to the HOC yesterday afternoon or evening and stated that he would be writing to the relevant Executive officer to begin the process. We have three Bank Holidays coming up in April/beginning of May which might affect the closure date for the Petition.
Thanks for the comment re Bercow. I'd missed that.
As far as I can see, bank holidays don't affect the 6 week signing period but would be taken into account for the 10 days' 'preparation time' (but there aren't any in England in the next 2 weeks).
I am not sure on that point but had rather assumed that working days would be taken into account.
On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.
I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.
Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:
tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote 21 March: Petition opens 2 May: Petition closes 3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
I believe Bercow gave notice to the HOC yesterday afternoon or evening and stated that he would be writing to the relevant Executive officer to begin the process. We have three Bank Holidays coming up in April/beginning of May which might affect the closure date for the Petition.
Thanks for the comment re Bercow. I'd missed that.
As far as I can see, bank holidays don't affect the 6 week signing period but would be taken into account for the 10 days' 'preparation time' (but there aren't any in England in the next 2 weeks).
I am not sure on that point but had rather assumed that working days would be taken into account.
I don't think so. Section 9(2) says "In this Act “the signing period” means the period of 6 weeks beginning with the designated day." There's no mention of bank holidays or working days (unlike in some other provisions within the Act).
With double digit leads for the Tories in the polls, if the Blue Meanies take the seat in a by election it could be tipping point for Corbyn.
Other than one YouGov poll I have not seen double digit leads - Opinium recorded 6% over the weekend. Corbyn's position is not as dire as at the time of the Copeland by election at the end of February 2017.
I think what will seal her fate is the anger at still taking her MPs salary whilst serving the sentence.
If the 10% threshold can't be reached in this seat, with both main parties campaigning for it, then I don't see the circumstances where it would be reached. So I have to hope that the threshold will be exceeded by a wide margin.
On topic, the 'up to 10 locations' does seen to favour compact urban constituencies, where the great majority of voters would be likely to live with a mile of one of the signing points (if most or all of the 10 spots the law makes provision for are used and are spread out), as opposed to large rural constituencies.
I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.
Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:
tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote 21 March: Petition opens 2 May: Petition closes 3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
I believe Bercow gave notice to the HOC yesterday afternoon or evening and stated that he would be writing to the relevant Executive officer to begin the process. We have three Bank Holidays coming up in April/beginning of May which might affect the closure date for the Petition.
Thanks for the comment re Bercow. I'd missed that.
As far as I can see, bank holidays don't affect the 6 week signing period but would be taken into account for the 10 days' 'preparation time' (but there aren't any in England in the next 2 weeks).
I am not sure on that point but had rather assumed that working days would be taken into account.
I don't think so. Section 9(2) says "In this Act “the signing period” means the period of 6 weeks beginning with the designated day." There's no mention of bank holidays or working days (unlike in some other provisions within the Act).
Fair enough - which would slightly reduce the opportunities available to the electors to sign the Petition. Turnout in 2017 was 67.5% so circa 15% of that figure need to make the effort.
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
Yes, the document Mike links to mentions that by convention the party that previously held the seat would move the writ to call the by-election. However, in this case she's currently Independent, so I don't know if the convention covers cases where an MP has been kicked out of their party.
TIG ought to move the writ
That would rather imply them claiming her as one of their own though surely?
In 2010 the LDs moved the Oldham east writ after Phil Woolas had been deprived of his seat in the courts. Labour was trying to hold it later.
So its a convention that has been ignored in the past? So rather meaningless then.
In the thread to that post someone asks why it's antisemitic ....
The other reply to it says "it's not anti-semitic, it's anti-Israel"
There's a difference between the Israeli government and Israel itself.
True, the substantive image in question looks quite clearly anti-Jewish to me.
Quite clearly. The Star of David represents Jews.
The Israeli flag's Star of David is a different colour and is to my knowledge consistently the same shade of pale blue, not purple as in the image. Whereas in general the Star of David is using in all shades of colours to represent Jews in general.
If it was the identical shade of pale blue, or even just blue in general rather than purple you could maybe argue it referenced Israel but it would be a very weak argument. As it is it is simply racist though.
One wonders if a far right image with a crescent moon and star would have been so laxly interpreted as acceptable?
There was a yellow card issued which detailed what was and what was not permissable (eg gunman running towards you/gunman running away from you). If it violated the yellow card it was possibly illegal, if not, not.
As for Bloody Sunday, on the balance of evidence it was judged that the IRA sniper fired after not before the troops opened fire and that in any case yellow card procedures were not followed. Did he? We'll never know for sure. The complicating factors being a) fog of war; and b) 1 PARA.
O/T, I'm usually very skeptical about how much "fact-checking" matters in politics, but Woody Johnson's lie about food poisoning seems like it might be a genuine backfire. Personally I had no idea that the rate of food poisoning in the US is about 10 times the rate in the UK.
I'm sure John Humphreys pulled him up about it, right?
With double digit leads for the Tories in the polls, if the Blue Meanies take the seat in a by election it could be tipping point for Corbyn.
Ref my article the other day, even when governing parties are enjoying opinion poll leads greater than their margin at the previous election, this often doesn't translate into a positive swing at a by-election.
If the Tories do make a gain, the blame would be placed squarely on Onasanya having tainted the local Labour brand.
I love the inclusion of Mr Tyndall. I wonder where other posters here would place themselves in the chart and whethere it is different to how other posters view them?
I'd put myself on the downward-right slope of the blue graph, but was very close to being Amber Rudd. Be one of the other is my view.
If it was the identical shade of pale blue, or even just blue in general rather than purple you could maybe argue it referenced Israel but it would be a very weak argument. As it is it is simply racist though.
Even if it referenced Israel it would still be anti-semitic because there is not the evidence that Israel controls US politics in a way that would justify referencing Israel over other countries (such as Ireland, perhaps).
Whereas a cartoon which used a Russian flag in such a way could be justified due to the investigation into Russian interference that is currently being conducted.
The long view: Napoleon's pitching up in Egypt in 1708 was the moment that demonstrated western superiority to the Islamic world that sowed the seed for many of the problems we face today.
With double digit leads for the Tories in the polls, if the Blue Meanies take the seat in a by election it could be tipping point for Corbyn.
Ref my article the other day, even when governing parties are enjoying opinion poll leads greater than their margin at the previous election, this often doesn't translate into a positive swing at a by-election.
If the Tories do make a gain, the blame would be placed squarely on Onasanya having tainted the local Labour brand.
I think the splitters and Corbyn’s anti-Semitism issues makes things awkward for Labour.
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
Yes, the document Mike links to mentions that by convention the party that previously held the seat would move the writ to call the by-election. However, in this case she's currently Independent, so I don't know if the convention covers cases where an MP has been kicked out of their party.
TIG ought to move the writ
That would rather imply them claiming her as one of their own though surely?
In 2010 the LDs moved the Oldham east writ after Phil Woolas had been deprived of his seat in the courts. Labour was trying to hold it later.
So its a convention that has been ignored in the past? So rather meaningless then.
It's not meaningless if it's adhered to 90%+ of the time.
It is surely a bimodal distribution, but the names should be positioned on the horizontal axis. The vertical axis measures something like probability density.
The long view: Napoleon's pitching up in Egypt in 1708 was the moment that demonstrated western superiority to the Islamic world that sowed the seed for many of the problems we face today.
I thought the whole point of the Good Friday Agreement was that everything that happened during the Troubles was wiped from the slate. That's why convicted IRA killers were released, like the person responsible for the Brighton bombing.
Noteable as the ECJ eventually ruled that the 3 Irish "tourists" had had their human rights violated. Can probably trace Brexit back to that decision.
Well, you won't be the first person to get the ECJ mixed up with the ECHR ! They are both very different in constitution and remit. I think the SAS probably did the right thing, but extra-judicial killings should be investigated. Courts only consider the evidence, whatever the likes of the Daily Mail might think! At the time the E Convention on HR was not incorporated into English Law, our own democratically elected government (Labour) did that, so while we were a signatory, we were not bound by it, as I understand.
It is a hell of a mess. Before Falconer or whoever can even start looking at cases, it seems to me that Labour’s entire investigative and disciplinary process needs tearing up and starting again. It does not seem to me to be fit for purpose. I doubt whether any of the people involved in it have any investigative experience at all or the independence of mind and character to do what can be - indeed pretty much always is if you do it properly - a tough job.
My understanding is that these leaks relate to the process as existed before it was torn up and started again by Formby - so it's not surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).
Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?
Why would you?
I would appoint an expert in investigations to set up an independent process.
You don't expect a CEO to design one let alone run it; ditto the CFO etc. Whatever talents Jenny Formby has, they are not those of an investigator.
Lots of people think this stuff is easy & can be done by someone in HR. It is not. It is hard; it needs skilled experienced people to do it so that it is trustworthy, trusted by both complainant & accused & cannot be challenged or, if it is, such challenges fail. It needs to be independent and robust and thorough.
Most people think that if they can ask a question ("What is the way to the Post Office?") they can interview someone in an investigative process. They can't. Some lawyers make good investigators; most don't. It is a question of aptitude & experience & scepticism & emotional intelligence & the ability to listen & to test the evidence & having good judgment.
I know I am talking my own book here but having done literally thousands of investigations during my career I may perhaps be forgiven this.
Labour need to start again & do this properly. They have, IMO, reached stage 9 of Cyclefree's 10 Stages of a Crisis. But they are still stuck somewhere near 5 or 6 hoping that something limited will be sufficient. It won't. The sooner they realise this the better. It is not Corbyn's and Formby's ability to run an investigative process which is the issue here. It is their willingness to do so. Until that changes the problem remains & anyone going in to help them sort it out risks being undermined. You need your ultimate boss to have your back in these situations.
Were I being asked to do this there are two questions I would need to ask: (1) Is Corbyn genuine about getting to the bottom of this problem? Or is he only concerned about getting it off the news pages? (2) Will he have my back if difficult - for him / his associates / Labour - issues arise? If you can't be certain that the answer to both those question is yes, step away.
Noteable as the ECJ eventually ruled that the 3 Irish "tourists" had had their human rights violated. Can probably trace Brexit back to that decision.
It was an ECHR ruling not an ECJ one wasn’t it?
Correct. A lot of Brexiteers seem to think that is the same body, which probably does mean that Brexit is traced back to yet another major misunderstanding of the facts.
The long view: Napoleon's pitching up in Egypt in 1708 was the moment that demonstrated western superiority to the Islamic world that sowed the seed for many of the problems we face today.
It is a hell of a mess. Before Falconer or whoever can even start looking at cases, it seems to me that Labour’s entire investigative and disciplinary process needs tearing up and starting again. It does not seem to me to be fit for purpose. I doubt whether any of the people involved in it have any investigative experience at all or the independence of mind and character to do ot surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).
Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?
Why would you?
I would appoint an expert in investigations to set up an independent process.
You don't expect a CEO to design one let alone run it; ditto the CFO etc. Whatever talents Jenny Formby has, they are not those of an investigator.
Lots of people think this stuff is easy & can be done by someone in HR. It is not. It is hard; it needs skilled experienced people to do it so that it is trustworthy, trusted by both complainant & accused & cannot be challenged or, if it is, such challenges fail. It needs to be independent and robust and thorough.
Most people think that if they can ask a question ("What is the way to the Post Office?") they can interview someone in an investigative process. They can't. Some lawyers make good investigators; most don't. It is a question of aptitude & experience & scepticism & emotional intelligence & the ability to listen & to test the evidence & having good judgment.
I know I am talking my own book here but having done literally thousands of investigations during my career I may perhaps be forgiven this.
Labour need to start again & do this properly. They have, IMO, reached stage 9 of Cyclefree's 10 Stages of a Crisis. But they are still stuck somewhere near 5 or 6 hoping that something limited will be sufficient. It won't. The sooner they realise this the better. It is not Corbyn's and Formby's ability to run an investigative process which is the issue here. It is their willingness to do so. Until that changes the problem remains & anyone going in to help them sort it out risks being undermined. You need your ultimate boss to have your back in these situations.
Were I being asked to do this there are two questions I would need to ask: (1) Is Corbyn genuine about getting to the bottom of this problem? Or is he only concerned about getting it off the news pages? (2) Will he have my back if difficult - for him / his associates / Labour - issues arise? If you can't be certain that the answer to both those question is yes, step away.
Just for balance, how should the Tories deal with the islamophobia revealed by Baroness Varsi this week?
Mainstream British politics is stuck in the uncanny valley, leaving the country with an unsettling feeling.
TBH, I think you're tad hard on Mrs Duffy. All she said, IIRC, was that Rochdale had changed. And, as one who lived there many years ago, and went back recently to see the great improvements in the river area, it has.
OT. I've just had an email from my inurance company telling me that I will probably need a green card if i'm driving in Europe in the next 6 weeks.
We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.
That tells me that you've never been to (or even read about) a banana republic or a failed state. A trivial bureaucratic inconvenience is not comparable to endemic corruption or a civil war.
Either that or your post was tongue-in-cheek, in which case sorry.
I have always needed this - nothing new about it at all. Same here in Spain ever since I first took out insurance 10 years ago.
You used to need a 'bail bond' in Spain since the native police had a nasty habit of impounding the vehicle if you didn't pay the fines.
When green cards were previously issued many companies gave them free. Note that IIRC the green card was to increase cover on your insurance policy to the same level abroad as the UK since the standard insurance policy provided the minimum required by law in each European Country.
The long view: Napoleon's pitching up in Egypt in 1708 was the moment that demonstrated western superiority to the Islamic world that sowed the seed for many of the problems we face today.
It is a hell of a mess. Before Falconer or whoever can even start looking at cases, it seems to me that Labour’s entire investigative and disciplinary process needs tearing up and starting again. It does not seem to me to be fit for purpose. I doubt whether any of the people involved in it have any investigative experience at all or the independence of mind and character to do ot surprising that it was crap, but it doesn't look like the current process is fully functional either (though I think it's problems are different).
Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?
Why would you?
I would appoint an expert in investigations to set up an independent process.
You don't expect a CEO to design one let alone run it; ditto the CFO etc. Whatever talents Jenny Formby has, they are not those of an investigator.
L Were I being asked to do this there are two questions I would need to ask: (1) Is Corbyn genuine about getting to the bottom of this problem? Or is he only concerned about getting it off the news pages? (2) Will he have my back if difficult - for him / his associates / Labour - issues arise? If you can't be certain that the answer to both those question is yes, step away.
Just for balance, how should the Tories deal with the islamophobia revealed by Baroness Varsi this week?
As they have done. Suspend those against whom the allegations have bene made, and investigate them promptly..
But also treat her claims with scepticism. She herself holds some pretty unsavoury opinions.
Comments
I'm sure our transatlantic cousins in the National Rifle Association would approve of this, but suspect we're a little too squeamish to cope with the carnage which would doubtless ensue.
Why not?
The Bond franchise has really reached the end of its life.
I think it will be an absolute box office smash.
Cold bath time!!!
AmazonAmmo-Prime.In favour of a high vote:
- the 'poll card' to each voter will help awareness ("this is for everyone, not just activists")
- six weeks is a long time to vote
- while there's no running total, I guess the reference to spending limits means there will be campaigning.
- and in any case, there'll have been enough local discussion of the case ("she's a crook and still trousering £70k a year"), and this is a simple enough proposition to give her a kicking to make this reach beyond traditional voters. As a billy bonus, they don't have to trash the economy or bring politics to a grinding halt for 3 years in the process.
Mitigating that:
- "bloody hell.. we have to vote to get them in.. then we have to vote to get them out again? They're all as bad as each other ".
- the limit of ten signing places isn't insurmountable in a fairly urban seat*, but it means far fewer places than we have polling stations, so people will have to make an effort. In addition, I note from the Commons paper that your signing place will be assigned to you.. so it's likely to be a library or something a ward or two away from you. That, or requesting a postal vote, does require a modicum of motivation.
(*I'd be interested to see how that worked out in the sticks. Probably a decent bet that if the member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber was subject to recall, there'd be a lesser chance of people trekking to their "nearest" allocated signing place! EDIT: I note David H has made a similar point. Apols for the repetition!)
Bombardier carries a lot of weight there and are crucial to the economy making up 10 percent of exports .
The narrative of the DUP colluding with the Tories to bring about an economic disaster for NI will play out very badly .
She introduced herself as Hamlet, the Dame...
As far as I can see, bank holidays don't affect the 6 week signing period but would be taken into account for the 10 days' 'preparation time' (but there aren't any in England in the next 2 weeks).
I'm sure you do...
With double digit leads for the Tories in the polls, if the Blue Meanies take the seat in a by election it could be tipping point for Corbyn.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25/section/9/enacted
Behold my vastly oversimplified & a touch wrong chart !
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1103295179518328835
Just a matter of days until things finally come to a head, and we get to see the Australian Grand Prix.
Think I might just listen to it on the radio, rather than getting up at 5.10am. Well, bit earlier, because I'd need to take the dog.
The Israeli flag's Star of David is a different colour and is to my knowledge consistently the same shade of pale blue, not purple as in the image. Whereas in general the Star of David is using in all shades of colours to represent Jews in general.
If it was the identical shade of pale blue, or even just blue in general rather than purple you could maybe argue it referenced Israel but it would be a very weak argument. As it is it is simply racist though.
One wonders if a far right image with a crescent moon and star would have been so laxly interpreted as acceptable?
As for Bloody Sunday, on the balance of evidence it was judged that the IRA sniper fired after not before the troops opened fire and that in any case yellow card procedures were not followed. Did he? We'll never know for sure. The complicating factors being a) fog of war; and b) 1 PARA.
Karen Bradley remains an idiot, that said.
If the Tories do make a gain, the blame would be placed squarely on Onasanya having tainted the local Labour brand.
I love the inclusion of Mr Tyndall. I wonder where other posters here would place themselves in the chart and whethere it is different to how other posters view them?
I'd put myself on the downward-right slope of the blue graph, but was very close to being Amber Rudd. Be one of the other is my view.
Whereas a cartoon which used a Russian flag in such a way could be justified due to the investigation into Russian interference that is currently being conducted.
31st anniversary of operation Flavius today.
Noteable as the ECJ eventually ruled that the 3 Irish "tourists" had had their human rights violated. Can probably trace Brexit back to that decision.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6777705/Anger-Belgian-carnival-float-featuring-caricatures-Jewish-people-sitting-piles-cash.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
You don't expect a CEO to design one let alone run it; ditto the CFO etc. Whatever talents Jenny Formby has, they are not those of an investigator.
Lots of people think this stuff is easy & can be done by someone in HR. It is not. It is hard; it needs skilled experienced people to do it so that it is trustworthy, trusted by both complainant & accused & cannot be challenged or, if it is, such challenges fail. It needs to be independent and robust and thorough.
Most people think that if they can ask a question ("What is the way to the Post Office?") they can interview someone in an investigative process. They can't. Some lawyers make good investigators; most don't. It is a question of aptitude & experience & scepticism & emotional intelligence & the ability to listen & to test the evidence & having good judgment.
I know I am talking my own book here but having done literally thousands of investigations during my career I may perhaps be forgiven this.
Labour need to start again & do this properly. They have, IMO, reached stage 9 of Cyclefree's 10 Stages of a Crisis. But they are still stuck somewhere near 5 or 6 hoping that something limited will be sufficient. It won't. The sooner they realise this the better. It is not Corbyn's and Formby's ability to run an investigative process which is the issue here. It is their willingness to do so. Until that changes the problem remains & anyone going in to help them sort it out risks being undermined. You need your ultimate boss to have your back in these situations.
Were I being asked to do this there are two questions I would need to ask: (1) Is Corbyn genuine about getting to the bottom of this problem? Or is he only concerned about getting it off the news pages? (2) Will he have my back if difficult - for him / his associates / Labour - issues arise? If you can't be certain that the answer to both those question is yes, step away.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Didier+Reynders+blackface&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwizkPHf3O3gAhU7RhUIHcSFCIkQsAR6BAgGEAE&biw=2133&bih=872#imgrc=nOf_KJlgEfDqXM:
https://www.google.com/search?q=flemish+minister+blackface&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjBhtCL3e3gAhWJSBUIHdNuDM4Q_AUIDigB&cshid=1551882626252481&biw=2133&bih=872#imgrc=C7mgFvCdhBzeLM:
When green cards were previously issued many companies gave them free. Note that IIRC the green card was to increase cover on your insurance policy to the same level abroad as the UK since the standard insurance policy provided the minimum required by law in each European Country.
But also treat her claims with scepticism. She herself holds some pretty unsavoury opinions.