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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Rubbish. The Deal Leaving. The fact it is not the pure Brexit you want is your problem. All the reasonable Brexiteers on here accept that the Deal fulfils both the letter and the spirit of the referendum. Moreover it is all you are going to get. I don't fear a No Deal but I know it will never be allowed to happen. It is this or nothing and all the consequences of that.

    "All the reasonable Brexiteers"? That seems like a No True Scotsman fallacy. Besides the fact I reject the deal, what makes me an unreasonable Brexiteer?

    I certainly do not accept that the Deal as constituted fulfills both the letter and the spirit of the referendum, though if there was an exit from the backstop it would. It fulfills the letter yes as we will have left, but the spirit was that we were leaving to take back control, not abdicate it in perpetuity.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Rubbish. The Deal Leaving. The fact it is not the pure Brexit you want is your problem. All the reasonable Brexiteers on here accept that the Deal fulfils both the letter and the spirit of the referendum. Moreover it is all you are going to get. I don't fear a No Deal but I know it will never be allowed to happen. It is this or nothing and all the consequences of that.

    "All the reasonable Brexiteers"?
    What he means is one of Mrs May's lemmings.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    tpfkar said:

    One thing that's struck me is that next Weds is going to be the ultimate popcorn moment.
    The deal falls on Tuesday (I still reckon by >100 votes)

    Then literally a day later the Tories have to vote on no deal.
    If it's whipped, there are surely dozens of resignations either way?
    So I think the Tories may have to offer a free vote and split down the middle. The acrimony will be off the scale won't it? All on a vote that has no chance whatsoever of getting a majority. That's the outcome of making Brexit a great big purity test.

    Will Theresa May even have a majority when the extension vote comes along.

    In the end parliament might only be able to make a sensible decision when they are all stuck in the building faced with a cliff edge and no time to get strong-armed by their constituency associations.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Mr. Thompson: Well clearly I was taking the mickey, but the fact is your protestations every time the EU make any move is that "they" are trying to screw "us", and makes you sound a little, well, paranoid, or even perhaps xenophobic (which I am sure you are not). The EU negotiators are understandably exasperated at our petulance . Read Mike's article. It sums it up nicely.

    That's not my protestation at all. In fact I doubt you could find a single post by me ever where I've said that.

    My objection has been all along the undemocratic backstop. To me it is a breach of fundamental human rights, to take away anyone's ability to determine who sets the laws and regulations they live under. Signing away our rights to elect who does that, without any ability to revoke that, is unacceptable.

    No ifs, no buts. It is undemocratic and I place my belief in democracy above any discomfort it may cause.

    I've said I am OK with both No Deal and Remain in preference to the backstop which I appreciate is a relatively unique and unusual perspective given most people here are fully for either Leave or Remain. To me though the backstop is a policy that I can not support.

    How do you square that with an allegation of xenophobia? If I was xenophobic, I would not be OK with Remaining in the EU as a preferable alternative now would I?

    I don't think rejecting the backstop is petulance. There are issues of principle involved here which is why it is more than the 'usual suspects' who take umbrage at it.
    Rejecting the deal is lunacy for anyone who was actually really wanting to leave the EU in the first place. As I said to you last night. If we do not leave now we never will. The idea we will ever WANT another chance is just delusional.
    That better?
    Nope. We will very much want it in the future. We just won't be allowed it by a Parliament who will have been shaken by how close we came this time.

    Democracy dies if we do not abide by the referendum result.
    Parliament in the future will not be made up of the same MPs as today's Parliament.

    If the public wants to Leave and elects MPs who want to Leave then Leave can win in the future.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I still don't think MPs are panicking enough to reach any final deal. Maybe the mood will change in the next week but I don't sense that it will.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I still don't think MPs are panicking enough to reach any final deal. Maybe the mood will change in the next week but I don't sense that it will.

    Project fear just isn't scary enough.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    Mr. Thompson: Well clearly I was taking the mickey, but the fact is your protestations every time the EU make any move is that "they" are trying to screw "us", and makes you sound a little, well, paranoid, or even perhaps xenophobic (which I am sure you are not). The EU negotiators are understandably exasperated at our petulance . Read Mike's article. It sums it up nicely.

    That's not my protestation at all. In fact I doubt you could find a single post by me ever where I've said that.

    My objection has been all along the undemocratic backstop. To me it is a breach of fundamental human rights, to take away anyone's ability to determine who sets the laws and regulations they live under. Signing away our rights to elect who does that, without any ability to revoke that, is unacceptable.

    No ifs, no buts. It is undemocratic and I place my belief in democracy above any discomfort it may cause.

    I've said I am OK with both No Deal and Remain in preference to the backstop which I appreciate is a relatively unique and unusual perspective given most people here are fully for either Leave or Remain. To me though the backstop is a policy that I can not support.

    How do you square that with an allegation of xenophobia? If I was xenophobic, I would not be OK with Remaining in the EU as a preferable alternative now would I?

    I don't think rejecting the backstop is petulance. There are issues of principle involved here which is why it is more than the 'usual suspects' who take umbrage at it.
    Rejecting the deal is lunacy for anyone who was actually really wanting to leave the EU in the first place. As I said to you last night. If we do not leave now we never will. The idea we will ever WANT another chance is just delusional.
    That better?
    Nope. We will very much want it in the future. We just won't be allowed it by a Parliament who will have been shaken by how close we came this time.

    Democracy dies if we do not abide by the referendum result.
    Why. As others have said ad nauseam the electorate is allowed to change its mind.
    And as I have said before, democracy is asking a question and enacting the answer. Not asking the question for the sake of a veneer of democracy and then ignoring the answer. That is what dictatorships do.
    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tpfkar said:

    One thing that's struck me is that next Weds is going to be the ultimate popcorn moment.
    The deal falls on Tuesday (I still reckon by >100 votes)

    Then literally a day later the Tories have to vote on no deal.
    If it's whipped, there are surely dozens of resignations either way?
    So I think the Tories may have to offer a free vote and split down the middle. The acrimony will be off the scale won't it? All on a vote that has no chance whatsoever of getting a majority. That's the outcome of making Brexit a great big purity test.

    Will Theresa May even have a majority when the extension vote comes along.

    In the end parliament might only be able to make a sensible decision when they are all stuck in the building faced with a cliff edge and no time to get strong-armed by their constituency associations.
    100% agreed but thanks to Cooper that's not going to happen.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    Mr. Thompson: Well clearly I was taking the mickey, but the fact is your protestations every time the EU make any move is that "they" are trying to screw "us", and makes you sound a little, well, paranoid, or even perhaps xenophobic (which I am sure you are not). The EU negotiators are understandably exasperated at our petulance . Read Mike's article. It sums it up nicely.

    That's not my protestation at all. In fact I doubt you could find a single post by me ever where I've said that.



    No ifs, no buts. It is undemocratic and I place my belief in democracy above any discomfort it may cause.

    I've said I am OK with both No Deal and Remain in preference to the backstop which I appreciate is a relatively unique and unusual perspective given most people here are fully for either Leave or Remain. To me though the backstop is a policy that I can not support.

    How do you square that with an allegation of xenophobia? If I was xenophobic, I would not be OK with Remaining in the EU as a preferable alternative now would I?

    I don't think rejecting the backstop is petulance. There are issues of principle involved here which is why it is more than the 'usual suspects' who take umbrage at it.
    Rejecting the deal is lunacy for anyone who was actually really wanting to leave the EU in the first place. As I said to you last night. If we do not leave now we never will. The idea we will ever get another chance is just delusional.
    The idea that the deal is leaving is lunacy. It's a trap designed by the civil service to reel us back in, with no ability to stop it. Keep trying to convince yourself but it's not going to convince anyone else.
    Rubbish. The Deal Leaving. The fact it is not the pure Brexit you want is your problem. All the reasonable Brexiteers on here accept that the Deal fulfils both the letter and the spirit of the referendum. Moreover it is all you are going to get. I don't fear a No Deal but I know it will never be allowed to happen. It is this or nothing and all the consequences of that.
    It has fuck all to do with "pure brexit", literally no one who voted to leave did so to reduce this country to vassalage with regards to our trading arrangements. It is precisely the opposite of leave. If the conservatives wish to do that then they will suffer the consequences.
    literally no one who voted to leave...
    Not the best of arguments to use against someone who actually did vote leave....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited March 2019

    Mr. Thompson: Well clearly I was taking the mickey, but the fact is your protestations every time the EU make any move is that "they" are trying to screw "us", and makes you sound a little, well, paranoid, or even perhaps xenophobic (which I am sure you are not). The EU negotiators are understandably exasperated at our petulance . Read Mike's article. It sums it up nicely.

    That's not my protestation at all. In fact I doubt you could find a single post by me ever where I've said that.

    My objection has been all along the undemocratic backstop. To me it is a breach of fundamental human rights, to take away anyone's ability to determine who sets the laws and regulations they live under. Signing away our rights to elect who does that, without any ability to revoke that, is unacceptable.

    No ifs, no buts. It is undemocratic and I place my belief in democracy above any discomfort it may cause.

    I've said I am OK with both No Deal and Remain in preference to the backstop which I appreciate is a relatively unique and unusual perspective given most people here are fully for either Leave or Remain. To me though the e umbrage at it.
    Rejecting the deal is lunacy for anyone who was actually really wanting to leave the EU in the first place. As I said to you last night. If we do not leave now we never will. The idea we will ever get another chance is just delusional.
    The idea that the deal is leaving is lunacy. It's a trap designed by the civil service to reel us back in, with no ability to stop it. Keep trying to convince yourself but it's not going to convince anyone else.
    Rubbish. The Deal Leaving. The fact it is not the pure Brexit you want is your problem. All the reasonable Brexiteers on here accept that the Deal fulfils both the letter and the spirit of the referendum. Moreover it is all you are going to get. I don't fear a No Deal but I know it will never be allowed to happen. It is this or nothing and all the consequences of that.
    It has fuck all to do with "pure brexit", literally no one who voted to leave did so to reduce this country to vassalage with regards to our trading arrangements. It is precisely the opposite of leave. If the conservatives wish to do that then they will suffer the consequences.
    They won't, most Tories, Leavers or Remainers will grudgingly accept the Deal.

    What most Tories would not accept though is revoking Article 50 and No Brexit at all and Tory Remainers, let alone Remainers as a whole and indeed many soft Brexiteers would not accept No Deal
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Project fear just isn't scary enough.

    https://twitter.com/MatthewdAncona/status/1103643491673034753
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.

    It is exactly what the Lib Dems, Tiggers, SNP, Grieve, Soubry et al have done. While Labour are playing politics. And yes that makes up a majority of Parliament.

    The problem is that a majority of Parliament did not back Leave and are prepared to see Leave die.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Rubbish. The Deal Leaving. The fact it is not the pure Brexit you want is your problem. All the reasonable Brexiteers on here accept that the Deal fulfils both the letter and the spirit of the referendum. Moreover it is all you are going to get. I don't fear a No Deal but I know it will never be allowed to happen. It is this or nothing and all the consequences of that.

    "All the reasonable Brexiteers"? That seems like a No True Scotsman fallacy. Besides the fact I reject the deal, what makes me an unreasonable Brexiteer?

    I certainly do not accept that the Deal as constituted fulfills both the letter and the spirit of the referendum, though if there was an exit from the backstop it would. It fulfills the letter yes as we will have left, but the spirit was that we were leaving to take back control, not abdicate it in perpetuity.
    Well, even if stuck in the backstop (which won't happen, because it is so unpalatable to the EU), we'll have:

    - Taken back control of our borders and immigration policy
    - Taken back control of our fisheries
    - Taken back control of our agriculture
    - Taken back control of our environmental policy
    - Taken back control of the £350m a week gross contributions which the Leave campaign featured so prominently
    - Taken back control of our justice system
    - Taken back control of all aspects of domestic law except those directly involved in the market for goods
    - Taken back control of financial regulation
    - Taken back control of all other services-related regulation (unfortunately)
    - Excluded ourselves in perpetuity from ever-closer union

    If that's not respecting the spirit of the referendum, what on earth would be?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Project fear just isn't scary enough.

    https://twitter.com/MatthewdAncona/status/1103643491673034753
    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    If that pushed you towards Leave then expect to be disappointed. Size matters ! Lol

    The EU has 500 million consumers and will always get a better deal than the UK.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Thompson: Well clearly I was taking the mickey, but the fact is your protestations every time the EU make any move is that "they" are trying to screw "us", and makes you sound a little, well, paranoid, or even perhaps xenophobic (which I am sure you are not). The EU negotiators are understandably exasperated at our petulance . Read Mike's article. It sums it up nicely.

    That's not my protestation at all. In fact I doubt you could find a single post by me ever where I've said that.



    No ifs, no buts. It is undemocratic and I place my belief in democracy above any discomfort it may cause.

    I've said I am OK with both No Deal and Remain in preference to the backstop which I appreciate is a relatively unique and unusual perspective given most people here are fully for either Leave or Remain. To me though the backstop is a policy that I can not support.

    How do you square that with an allegation of xenophobia? If I was xenophobic, I would not be OK with Remaining in the EU as a preferable alternative now would I?

    I don't think rejecting the backstop is petulance. There are issues of principle involved here which is why it is more than the 'usual suspects' who take umbrage at it.
    Rejecting the deal is lunacy for anyone who was actually really wanting to leave the EU in the first place. As I said to you last night. If we do not leave now we never will. The idea we will ever get another chance is just delusional.
    The idea that the deal is leaving is lunacy. It's a trap designed by the civil service to reel us back in, with no ability to stop it. Keep trying to convince yourself but it's not going to convince anyone else.
    Rubbish. The Deal Leaving. The fact it is not the pure Brexit you want is your problem. All the reasonable Brexiteers on here accept that the Deal fulfils both the letter and the spirit of the referendum. Moreover it is all you are going to get. I don't fear a No Deal but I know it will never be allowed to happen. It is this or nothing and all the consequences of that.
    It has fuck all to do with "pure brexit", literally no one who voted to leave did so to reduce this country to vassalage with regards to our trading arrangements. It is precisely the opposite of leave. If the conservatives wish to do that then they will suffer the consequences.
    literally no one who voted to leave...
    Not the best of arguments to use against someone who actually did vote leave....
    That's the thing, Leave was not some monolithic creature.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    tpfkar said:

    One thing that's struck me is that next Weds is going to be the ultimate popcorn moment.
    The deal falls on Tuesday (I still reckon by >100 votes)

    Then literally a day later the Tories have to vote on no deal.
    If it's whipped, there are surely dozens of resignations either way?
    So I think the Tories may have to offer a free vote and split down the middle. The acrimony will be off the scale won't it? All on a vote that has no chance whatsoever of getting a majority. That's the outcome of making Brexit a great big purity test.

    Will Theresa May even have a majority when the extension vote comes along.

    In the end parliament might only be able to make a sensible decision when they are all stuck in the building faced with a cliff edge and no time to get strong-armed by their constituency associations.
    100% agreed but thanks to Cooper that's not going to happen.
    I'm not convinced that the vote to delay will win. Lots of Labour MPs didn't vote for it last time. May might be able to keep ministers on side and holding their fire with the promise of negotiations at the EU summit the week after.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Project fear just isn't scary enough.

    https://twitter.com/MatthewdAncona/status/1103643491673034753
    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.
    Employment is a lagging indicator.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313

    Scott_P said:
    I'm confused. 'Funny tinge' is just oddball, but coloured is an outdated term but to my understand was not an offensive one.

    It is what the C stands for in America's NAACP. The AA is not African American.
    My understanding is that it is quite offensive, and in America is extremely so. I'm just confused it was even in then recesses of Amber Rudd's mind - it's surely never been widely used in the UK even pejoratively?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Project fear just isn't scary enough.

    https://twitter.com/MatthewdAncona/status/1103643491673034753
    He fails to grasp that the issue is that the messengers of doom simply aren't credible.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    If that pushed you towards Leave then expect to be disappointed. Size matters ! Lol

    The EU has 500 million consumers and will always get a better deal than the UK.
    Size matters yes, but not necessarily in the way you mean it. Large can be bureaucratic, scelerotic and monolithic. Small can be nimble and agile.

    Australia has better trade deals than the EU. No reason we can't.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Rubbish. The Deal Leaving. The fact it is not the pure Brexit you want is your problem. All the reasonable Brexiteers on here accept that the Deal fulfils both the letter and the spirit of the referendum. Moreover it is all you are going to get. I don't fear a No Deal but I know it will never be allowed to happen. It is this or nothing and all the consequences of that.

    "All the reasonable Brexiteers"? That seems like a No True Scotsman fallacy. Besides the fact I reject the deal, what makes me an unreasonable Brexiteer?

    I certainly do not accept that the Deal as constituted fulfills both the letter and the spirit of the referendum, though if there was an exit from the backstop it would. It fulfills the letter yes as we will have left, but the spirit was that we were leaving to take back control, not abdicate it in perpetuity.
    Well, even if stuck in the backstop (which won't happen, because it is so unpalatable to the EU), we'll have:

    - Taken back control of our borders and immigration policy
    - Taken back control of our fisheries
    - Taken back control of our agriculture
    - Taken back control of our environmental policy
    - Taken back control of the £350m a week gross contributions which the Leave campaign featured so prominently
    - Taken back control of our justice system
    - Taken back control of all aspects of domestic law except those directly involved in the market for goods
    - Taken back control of financial regulation
    - Taken back control of all other services-related regulation (unfortunately)
    - Excluded ourselves in perpetuity from ever-closer union

    If that's not respecting the spirit of the referendum, what on earth would be?
    And free membership of the single market ;)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Thompson: Well clearly I was taking the mickey, but the fact is your protestations every time the EU make any move is that "they" are trying to screw "us", and makes you sound a little, well, paranoid, or even perhaps xenophobic (which I am sure you are not). The EU negotiators are understandably exasperated at our petulance . Read Mike's article. It sums it up nicely.

    That's not my protestation at all. In fact I doubt you could find a single post by me ever where I've said that.

    How do you square that with an allegation of xenophobia? If I was xenophobic, I would not be OK with Remaining in the EU as a preferable alternative now would I?

    I don't think rejecting the backstop is petulance. There are issues of principle involved here which is why it is more than the 'usual suspects' who take umbrage at it.
    Rejecting the deal is lunacy for anyone who was actually really wanting to leave the EU in the first place. As I said to you last night. If we do not leave now we never will. The idea we will ever get another chance is just delusional.
    The idea that the deal is leaving is lunacy. It's a trap designed by the civil service to reel us back in, with no ability to stop it. Keep trying to convince yourself but it's not going to convince anyone else.
    Rubbish. The Deal Leaving. The fact it is not the pure Brexit you want is your problem. All the reasonable Brexiteers on here accept that the Deal fulfils both the letter and the spirit of the referendum. Moreover it is all you are going to get. I don't fear a No Deal but I know it will never be allowed to happen. It is this or nothing and all the consequences of that.
    It has fuck all to do with "pure brexit", literally no one who voted to leave did so to reduce this country to vassalage with regards to our trading arrangements. It is precisely the opposite of leave. If the conservatives wish to do that then they will suffer the consequences.
    literally no one who voted to leave...
    Not the best of arguments to use against someone who actually did vote leave....
    That's the thing, Leave was not some monolithic creature.
    No, the thing is that he's telling Richard that "literally no one" who voted leave supports May's deal.
    I believe that is called a self-refuting argument.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    ICE cars are the past - like the EU.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Scott_P said:
    I'm confused. 'Funny tinge' is just oddball, but coloured is an outdated term but to my understand was not an offensive one.

    It is what the C stands for in America's NAACP. The AA is not African American.
    My understanding is that it is quite offensive, and in America is extremely so. I'm just confused it was even in then recesses of Amber Rudd's mind - it's surely never been widely used in the UK even pejoratively?
    It has never been particularly pejorative in the UK, but used to be a common term (in fact, IIRC it was the preferred term thirty or forty years ago, the equivalent of the politically correct term before political correctness was invented).
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    ICE cars are the past - like the EU.

    What is the disruptive innovation equivalent to electric cars that will make the EU obsolete?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Mike is right that May couldn't sell a free dinner.

    Yet it is the ERG coming out so early and trashing the deal - including the resignations of the Brexit ministers who had apparently been part of the team putting it together - that sank the Tories' chances of delivering the vote. And quite possibly sank the whole project.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    ICE cars are the past - like the EU.

    What is the disruptive innovation equivalent to electric cars that will make the EU obsolete?
    Additive manufacturing.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    Failing car companies in a struggling sector scaling back unprofitable models that aren't selling without relocating to anywhere in Europe?

    That's all you have? *yawn*

    Oh and the leaders of both those companies both said their decisions was not due to Brexit but due to market conditions. But who needs experts eh?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919


    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.

    Yes that is exactly what they have been doing. A large number, indeed probably a majority have always had it in mind to reverse Brexit when they thought they might get away with it. Of course they have been helped by the idiocy of the ERG but that does not excuse their behaviour.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    edited March 2019
    This is what will happen if these people are allowed near power.

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1103701304327761920

    Ban, close down, hound out anything, anyone, any entity that disagrees with Jezza and his inner circle. BBC, national newspapers, house of lords, police authorities, bank of england independence, OBR, National Stats agency, independent local government agencies and authorities etc etc.

    A unique national and constitutional catastrophe is racing towards us.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    Sherrod Brown opts to make the Democratic field slightly less crowded:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/433052-sherrod-brown-says-he-will-not-run-for-president
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    And we will leave the Customs Union. That argument has not changed. The backstop will not be permanent because it is no ones interests that it is. But some Leavers are behaving like spoilt children arguing that if they can't have everything they want right now then they don't want it at all. It is infantile.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    Failing car companies in a struggling sector scaling back unprofitable models that aren't selling without relocating to anywhere in Europe?

    That's all you have? *yawn*

    Oh and the leaders of both those companies both said their decisions was not due to Brexit but due to market conditions. But who needs experts eh?
    Unhuh...
    https://www.ft.com/content/368a3b68-3ea4-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigelb said:
    That's very funny. They try so hard to be different that they end up being conformists.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    And free membership of the single market ;)

    Which of course is great for those who voted to Remain in the Single Market ;)
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.

    Yes that is exactly what they have been doing. A large number, indeed probably a majority have always had it in mind to reverse Brexit when they thought they might get away with it. Of course they have been helped by the idiocy of the ERG but that does not excuse their behaviour.
    I don't think that is true at all, except for a small number of MPs (almost all on the opposition benches). The trashing of the deal by the ERG was a big shock to those who, like me, would have preferred Remain but were happy to support a reasonable exit with a sensible transition period, in the interests of respecting the referendum result.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    And we will leave the Customs Union. That argument has not changed. The backstop will not be permanent because it is no ones interests that it is. But some Leavers are behaving like spoilt children arguing that if they can't have everything they want right now then they don't want it at all. It is infantile.
    It is permanent in the sake of the EU have ensured they can veto us exiting it. Which means if they say once we've left "permanent customs union or stay in the backstop" we have no way out.
  • Options

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    If that pushed you towards Leave then expect to be disappointed. Size matters ! Lol

    The EU has 500 million consumers and will always get a better deal than the UK.
    Size matters yes, but not necessarily in the way you mean it. Large can be bureaucratic, scelerotic and monolithic. Small can be nimble and agile.

    Australia has better trade deals than the EU. No reason we can't.
    And sometimes when the market is large enough, increasing its size by a factor of 10 will hardly affect the deals at all. The UK is still the world's sixth or 7th largest economy.

    If Eurasia negotiates a good trading deal with Oceania, then Eastasia will try and get a better one.

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    Failing car companies in a struggling sector scaling back unprofitable models that aren't selling without relocating to anywhere in Europe?

    That's all you have? *yawn*

    Oh and the leaders of both those companies both said their decisions was not due to Brexit but due to market conditions. But who needs experts eh?
    https://twitter.com/carmen_mayes/status/1102986818209890304?s=19
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313

    Scott_P said:
    I'm confused. 'Funny tinge' is just oddball, but coloured is an outdated term but to my understand was not an offensive one.

    It is what the C stands for in America's NAACP. The AA is not African American.
    My understanding is that it is quite offensive, and in America is extremely so. I'm just confused it was even in then recesses of Amber Rudd's mind - it's surely never been widely used in the UK even pejoratively?
    It has never been particularly pejorative in the UK, but used to be a common term (in fact, IIRC it was the preferred term thirty or forty years ago, the equivalent of the politically correct term before political correctness was invented).
    I guess that's why it's passed me by. I'm still surprised, it hasn't been in wide use for 30 years, and Rudd is a politician.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    Failing car companies in a struggling sector scaling back unprofitable models that aren't selling without relocating to anywhere in Europe?

    That's all you have? *yawn*

    Oh and the leaders of both those companies both said their decisions was not due to Brexit but due to market conditions. But who needs experts eh?
    https://twitter.com/carmen_mayes/status/1102986818209890304?s=19
    You have any macroeconomic figures to back that up?
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    tpfkar said:

    One thing that's struck me is that next Weds is going to be the ultimate popcorn moment.
    The deal falls on Tuesday (I still reckon by >100 votes)

    Then literally a day later the Tories have to vote on no deal.
    If it's whipped, there are surely dozens of resignations either way?
    So I think the Tories may have to offer a free vote and split down the middle. The acrimony will be off the scale won't it? All on a vote that has no chance whatsoever of getting a majority. That's the outcome of making Brexit a great big purity test.

    Will Theresa May even have a majority when the extension vote comes along.

    In the end parliament might only be able to make a sensible decision when they are all stuck in the building faced with a cliff edge and no time to get strong-armed by their constituency associations.
    100% agreed but thanks to Cooper that's not going to happen.
    I'm not convinced that the vote to delay will win. Lots of Labour MPs didn't vote for it last time. May might be able to keep ministers on side and holding their fire with the promise of negotiations at the EU summit the week after.
    The first time the Cooper Letwin amendment was more far reaching and so scared off some Labour MPs. It was re written the second time and would have passed , that’s why May did her u turn.

    There’s no chance ministers will buy any more guff from May re the EU summit .
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Staying in 'The' Customs Union permanently is not possible as, unlike the Single Market, it is an integral part of the EU and tied up with the institutions and treaties that underpin the EU.

    The alternative is staying in 'A' Customs Union but that is a complete nightmare as it means we would be like Turkey; forced to accept tariff free imports from any 3rd Party country that had a trade deal with the EU but unable to export on the same basis.

    As I have mentioned before this is why Turkey said that if the EU:US Trade deal had gone through they would have had to leave the Customs Union they had with the EU. They simply couldn't have afforded to stay in.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Scott_P said:
    I'm confused. 'Funny tinge' is just oddball, but coloured is an outdated term but to my understand was not an offensive one.

    It is what the C stands for in America's NAACP. The AA is not African American.
    My understanding is that it is quite offensive, and in America is extremely so. I'm just confused it was even in then recesses of Amber Rudd's mind - it's surely never been widely used in the UK even pejoratively?
    It has never been particularly pejorative in the UK, but used to be a common term (in fact, IIRC it was the preferred term thirty or forty years ago, the equivalent of the politically correct term before political correctness was invented).
    I guess that's why it's passed me by. I'm still surprised, it hasn't been in wide use for 30 years, and Rudd is a politician.
    Yes, she shouldn't have used it. But the outrage is out of all proportion.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    Ban, close down, hound out anything, anyone, any entity that disagrees with Jezza and his inner circle. BBC, national newspapers, house of lords, police authorities, bank of england independence, OBR, National Stats agency, independent local government agencies and authorities etc etc.

    A unique national and constitutional catastrophe is racing towards us.

    Will Novara Media be the new national broadcaster?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924


    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.

    Yes that is exactly what they have been doing. A large number, indeed probably a majority have always had it in mind to reverse Brexit when they thought they might get away with it. Of course they have been helped by the idiocy of the ERG but that does not excuse their behaviour.
    I have formed the opposite impression. The Government has been spending an inordinate amount of time trying to organise a means of Leaving which will not cause considerable difficulties to Britain in both the short and long term, and it has found it almost impossible to do so.
    In the meantime the impression has been created abroad that we, the British, have completely abandoned all our traditional values and practices.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    And we will leave the Customs Union. That argument has not changed. The backstop will not be permanent because it is no ones interests that it is. But some Leavers are behaving like spoilt children arguing that if they can't have everything they want right now then they don't want it at all. It is infantile.
    It is permanent in the sake of the EU have ensured they can veto us exiting it. Which means if they say once we've left "permanent customs union or stay in the backstop" we have no way out.
    It is something that the EU cannot exit unilaterally too, thereby meaning that we can stay long term in the CU, if our post Brexit government is so inclined.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    RobD said:

    And free membership of the single market ;)

    Which of course is great for those who voted to Remain in the Single Market ;)
    What vote was that?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    Coloured is not okay, but people of colour is. And Coloured to refer to the people in South Africa is okay because they say they're proud of the label.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131
    Mrs May's "style" is to allow her opponents and detractors untrammeled and unchallenged use of the airwaves for so long that their position becomes the default established in the public discourse and then express bewilderment that everyone does not agree with her.

    I have never seen anything quite like it. It's extraordinary.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826


    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.

    Yes that is exactly what they have been doing. A large number, indeed probably a majority have always had it in mind to reverse Brexit when they thought they might get away with it. Of course they have been helped by the idiocy of the ERG but that does not excuse their behaviour.
    I don't think that is true at all, except for a small number of MPs (almost all on the opposition benches). The trashing of the deal by the ERG was a big shock to those who, like me, would have preferred Remain but were happy to support a reasonable exit with a sensible transition period, in the interests of respecting the referendum result.
    Approximately 300+ MPs never had any intention of ratifying any exit deal, because they'd either rather halt Brexit or screw over the Tories.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    edited March 2019
    As I have said, we should accept the backstop, then simply get on with implementing every aspect of the customs border, minus the name. If everything exists, there's nothing that can be said against it. If it fails, it proves those who wanted the backstop to be correct. Theresa May should just announce this as policy.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    If that pushed you towards Leave then expect to be disappointed. Size matters ! Lol

    The EU has 500 million consumers and will always get a better deal than the UK.
    Size matters yes, but not necessarily in the way you mean it. Large can be bureaucratic, scelerotic and monolithic. Small can be nimble and agile.

    Australia has better trade deals than the EU. No reason we can't.
    And sometimes when the market is large enough, increasing its size by a factor of 10 will hardly affect the deals at all. The UK is still the world's sixth or 7th largest economy.


    But the government is already discussing zero rating tariffs if we no-deal Brexit.
    How on earth do we then negotiate trade deals ?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Staying in 'The' Customs Union permanently is not possible as, unlike the Single Market, it is an integral part of the EU and tied up with the institutions and treaties that underpin the EU.

    The alternative is staying in 'A' Customs Union but that is a complete nightmare as it means we would be like Turkey; forced to accept tariff free imports from any 3rd Party country that had a trade deal with the EU but unable to export on the same basis.

    As I have mentioned before this is why Turkey said that if the EU:US Trade deal had gone through they would have had to leave the Customs Union they had with the EU. They simply couldn't have afforded to stay in.
    Good job they can leave the Customs Union unilaterally then isn't it.

    Remind us how we leave the backstop unilaterally? And if the EU say the only way to leave the backstop is to sign a Turkish-style Customs Union but with no unilateral exit because that'd risk an Irish border . . . then what?

    I am not OK with handing over control of our decision making to a third party without us having a way to revoke that.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924


    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.

    Yes that is exactly what they have been doing. A large number, indeed probably a majority have always had it in mind to reverse Brexit when they thought they might get away with it. Of course they have been helped by the idiocy of the ERG but that does not excuse their behaviour.
    I don't think that is true at all, except for a small number of MPs (almost all on the opposition benches). The trashing of the deal by the ERG was a big shock to those who, like me, would have preferred Remain but were happy to support a reasonable exit with a sensible transition period, in the interests of respecting the referendum result.
    Approximately 300+ MPs never had any intention of ratifying any exit deal, because they'd either rather halt Brexit or screw over the Tories.
    Wouldn't it be better to halt Brexit AND screw over the Tories.

    That would be a champagne moment in Cole Castle!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    As I have said, we should accept the backstop, then simply get on with implementing every aspect of the customs border, minus the name. If everything exists, there's nothing that can be said against it. If it fails, it proves those who wanted the backstop to be correct. Theresa May should just announce this as policy.

    I thought you were a fan of small government, not wasting public money on Potemkin borders...
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    nico67 said:



    There’s no chance ministers will buy any more guff from May re the EU summit .

    Really? ;)
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Staying in 'The' Customs Union permanently is not possible as, unlike the Single Market, it is an integral part of the EU and tied up with the institutions and treaties that underpin the EU.

    The alternative is staying in 'A' Customs Union but that is a complete nightmare as it means we would be like Turkey; forced to accept tariff free imports from any 3rd Party country that had a trade deal with the EU but unable to export on the same basis.

    As I have mentioned before this is why Turkey said that if the EU:US Trade deal had gone through they would have had to leave the Customs Union they had with the EU. They simply couldn't have afforded to stay in.
    Good job they can leave the Customs Union unilaterally then isn't it.

    Remind us how we leave the backstop unilaterally? And if the EU say the only way to leave the backstop is to sign a Turkish-style Customs Union but with no unilateral exit because that'd risk an Irish border . . . then what?

    I am not OK with handing over control of our decision making to a third party without us having a way to revoke that.
    They are not in 'The' Customs Union. That is the point.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Approximately 300+ MPs never had any intention of ratifying any exit deal, because they'd either rather halt Brexit or screw over the Tories.

    As regards Labour, yes of course that is right. But the motivation was to screw over the Tories, not to halt Brexit. Their cynical alliance with Steve Baker etc is a political monstrosity, but unfortunately that's the hand 2017 voters decided to deal.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    And we will leave the Customs Union. That argument has not changed. The backstop will not be permanent because it is no ones interests that it is. But some Leavers are behaving like spoilt children arguing that if they can't have everything they want right now then they don't want it at all. It is infantile.
    It is permanent in the sake of the EU have ensured they can veto us exiting it. Which means if they say once we've left "permanent customs union or stay in the backstop" we have no way out.
    It is something that the EU cannot exit unilaterally too, thereby meaning that we can stay long term in the CU, if our post Brexit government is so inclined.
    And if it is not so inclined? Then what?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's a bit of a shock to see this on the front page of the Guardian website:

    "Revealed: populist leaders linked to reduced inequality"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/07/revealed-populist-leaders-linked-to-reduced-inequality
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    ICE cars are the past - like the EU.

    What is the disruptive innovation equivalent to electric cars that will make the EU obsolete?
    Based on recent trends, does far-right nationalism count?

    Certainly it's disruptive. Not particularly innovative, though.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Staying in 'The' Customs Union permanently is not possible as, unlike the Single Market, it is an integral part of the EU and tied up with the institutions and treaties that underpin the EU.

    The alternative is staying in 'A' Customs Union but that is a complete nightmare as it means we would be like Turkey; forced to accept tariff free imports from any 3rd Party country that had a trade deal with the EU but unable to export on the same basis.

    As I have mentioned before this is why Turkey said that if the EU:US Trade deal had gone through they would have had to leave the Customs Union they had with the EU. They simply couldn't have afforded to stay in.
    Good job they can leave the Customs Union unilaterally then isn't it.

    Remind us how we leave the backstop unilaterally? And if the EU say the only way to leave the backstop is to sign a Turkish-style Customs Union but with no unilateral exit because that'd risk an Irish border . . . then what?

    I am not OK with handing over control of our decision making to a third party without us having a way to revoke that.
    They are not in 'The' Customs Union. That is the point.
    Nor might we be if the EU decides the path out of the backstop is a Permanent Turkish-style Customs Union again with no exit clause.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919


    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.

    Yes that is exactly what they have been doing. A large number, indeed probably a majority have always had it in mind to reverse Brexit when they thought they might get away with it. Of course they have been helped by the idiocy of the ERG but that does not excuse their behaviour.
    I have formed the opposite impression. The Government has been spending an inordinate amount of time trying to organise a means of Leaving which will not cause considerable difficulties to Britain in both the short and long term, and it has found it almost impossible to do so.
    In the meantime the impression has been created abroad that we, the British, have completely abandoned all our traditional values and practices.
    Hmm. Our traditional values and practices have been doing our best to screw over our European neighbours. We might have got rusty over the last 40 odd years but I am sure we can relearn those skills pretty quickly.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131
    Endillion said:

    Sean_F said:

    Endillion said:

    Same problem as the election campaign. Almost none of the cabinet lining up to big-up the Deal properly (honourable exception of Rory Stewart).

    Does she not trust them, or are they not prepared to go in to bat for her?

    It looks to me as though she doesn't understand the need for message management and getting your version of the narrative out there first. She seems to think people should be logical. She made exactly the same mistake with the 'death tax'.
    She is absolutely terrible at politics, which is surprising in a politician.
    Particularly surprising in one who gets to be PM!
    I feel the Cabinet should be picking up the slack. They're meant to be a team - no PM is perfect, so surely they all need support from those around them to do the things they can't?

    Maybe politicians really are too self-centred for this to work properly. Or just too busy keeping their own departments above the waterline.
    The flaw in that argument, which has some merit, is that May excludes the majority of her cabinet from any discussion on the issue, just as she excluded most of them, including her Chancellor for God's sake, from the GE campaign. It is the nature of the beast.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Endillion said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    ICE cars are the past - like the EU.

    What is the disruptive innovation equivalent to electric cars that will make the EU obsolete?
    Based on recent trends, does far-right nationalism count?

    Certainly it's disruptive. Not particularly innovative, though.
    No, it has to be something that is not just a threat to the EU, but something that renders it obsolete, and delivers Richard Tyndall's utopia of economic and social integration without politics.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313

    As I have said, we should accept the backstop, then simply get on with implementing every aspect of the customs border, minus the name. If everything exists, there's nothing that can be said against it. If it fails, it proves those who wanted the backstop to be correct. Theresa May should just announce this as policy.

    I thought you were a fan of small government, not wasting public money on Potemkin borders...
    It isn't a waste, it is early implementation of required infrastructure. You Remainers are the biggest critics of border chaos. This completely avoids that. I can't see what your issue with this policy is, other than it being a typical objection to anything sensible. :)
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited March 2019

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Staying in 'The' Customs Union permanently is not possible as, unlike the Single Market, it is an integral part of the EU and tied up with the institutions and treaties that underpin the EU.

    The alternative is staying in 'A' Customs Union but that is a complete nightmare as it means we would be like Turkey; forced to accept tariff free imports from any 3rd Party country that had a trade deal with the EU but unable to export on the same basis.

    As I have mentioned before this is why Turkey said that if the EU:US Trade deal had gone through they would have had to leave the Customs Union they had with the EU. They simply couldn't have afforded to stay in.
    Personally as a Remainer it would be better to stay in the single market like Norway with a separate customs arrangement not union .

    That way Leavers who really wanted it get that separate trade policy . So on freedom of movement that changes to just workers , a registration system and a big promise for a migration impact fund , stricter rules on undercutting on pay. As a package I think this would have alleviated concerns and still allowed Remainers a bit more freedom of movement . It also meant no ECJ but EFTA Court , fisheries and farming back . You remove about 70 percent of rules that way which would have been a good sell to some Leavers .

    Unfortunately Mays unhinged obsession with keeping other Europeans out has led to a deal which has zip chance of re uniting the country .
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,560
    "We look to our politicians to lead and sometimes that means they’ve got to bullshit a bit."

    That sentence took me right back to 1997, not sure why.

    I'm also not sure it's true. The greatest leader of my lifetime didn't really bullshit much, but she remained Prime Minister for eleven and a half years.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Staying in 'The' Customs Union permanently is not possible as, unlike the Single Market, it is an integral part of the EU and tied up with the institutions and treaties that underpin the EU.

    The alternative is staying in 'A' Customs Union but that is a complete nightmare as it means we would be like Turkey; forced to accept tariff free imports from any 3rd Party country that had a trade deal with the EU but unable to export on the same basis.

    As I have mentioned before this is why Turkey said that if the EU:US Trade deal had gone through they would have had to leave the Customs Union they had with the EU. They simply couldn't have afforded to stay in.
    Good job they can leave the Customs Union unilaterally then isn't it.

    Remind us how we leave the backstop unilaterally? And if the EU say the only way to leave the backstop is to sign a Turkish-style Customs Union but with no unilateral exit because that'd risk an Irish border . . . then what?

    I am not OK with handing over control of our decision making to a third party without us having a way to revoke that.
    They are not in 'The' Customs Union. That is the point.
    Nor might we be if the EU decides the path out of the backstop is a Permanent Turkish-style Customs Union again with no exit clause.
    Which we do not have to accept. This is the bit you keep missing. Whatever replaces the backstop has to be acceptable to both sides. And the EU are certainly not going to be content with us having tariff free access to their markets without having to pay for it. Your fears only work if you believe it is in the interests of the EU for us to be in the CU free of charge. Otherwise there are plenty of different ways we can agree what replaces it none of which need involve permanent CU membership.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225


    If you seriously think ignoring the answer is what the Government and Parliament have been doing over the past couple of years, and in particular since November, then I really struggle to understand your mindset.

    Yes that is exactly what they have been doing. A large number, indeed probably a majority have always had it in mind to reverse Brexit when they thought they might get away with it. Of course they have been helped by the idiocy of the ERG but that does not excuse their behaviour.
    I don't think that is true at all, except for a small number of MPs (almost all on the opposition benches). The trashing of the deal by the ERG was a big shock to those who, like me, would have preferred Remain but were happy to support a reasonable exit with a sensible transition period, in the interests of respecting the referendum result.
    Approximately 300+ MPs never had any intention of ratifying any exit deal, because they'd either rather halt Brexit or screw over the Tories.
    Wouldn't it be better to halt Brexit AND screw over the Tories.

    That would be a champagne moment in Cole Castle!
    The failed attempt to produce an acceptable way forward for Brexit eventually leads to its abandonment. Tory leavers desert to Farage's new outfit in significant numbers. If only the centre-left divisions could be resolved one way or another everything would be in place to deliver the result you are looking for.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Staying in 'The' Customs Union permanently is not possible as, unlike the Single Market, it is an integral part of the EU and tied up with the institutions and treaties that underpin the EU.

    The alternative is staying in 'A' Customs Union but that is a complete nightmare as it means we would be like Turkey; forced to accept tariff free imports from any 3rd Party country that had a trade deal with the EU but unable to export on the same basis.

    As I have mentioned before this is why Turkey said that if the EU:US Trade deal had gone through they would have had to leave the Customs Union they had with the EU. They simply couldn't have afforded to stay in.
    Personally as a Remainer it would be better to stay in the single market like Norway with a separate customs arrangement not union .

    That way Leavers who really wanted it get that separate trade policy . So on freedom of movement that changes to just workers , a registration system and a big promise for a migration impact fund , stricter rules on undercutting on pay. As a package I think this would have alleviated concerns and still allowed Remainers a bit more freedom of movement . It also meant no ECJ but EFTA Court , fisheries and farming back . You remove about 70 percent of rules that way which would have been a good sell to some Leavers .

    Unfortunately Mays unhinged obsession with keeping other Europeans out has led to a deal which has zip chance of re uniting the country .
    Unfortunately you don't get a separate trade policy if you remain in a Customs Union because there is no ned for any country with a deal with the EU to have one with you. They already have free access to your markets.

    Staying in the Single market but outside the EU like Norway makes perfect sense. Staying in the Customs Union is madness. It doesn't solve any issues and just makes trade deals almost impossible.
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    Fishing said:

    "We look to our politicians to lead and sometimes that means they’ve got to bullshit a bit."

    That sentence took me right back to 1997, not sure why.

    I'm also not sure it's true. The greatest leader of my lifetime didn't really bullshit much, but she remained Prime Minister for eleven and a half years.

    Thatcher frequently bullshitted.

    The Lady's not for turning is probably the prime example.

    She frequently u-turned.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313

    Fishing said:

    "We look to our politicians to lead and sometimes that means they’ve got to bullshit a bit."

    That sentence took me right back to 1997, not sure why.

    I'm also not sure it's true. The greatest leader of my lifetime didn't really bullshit much, but she remained Prime Minister for eleven and a half years.

    Thatcher frequently bullshitted.

    The Lady's not for turning is probably the prime example.

    She frequently u-turned.
    That phrase applied to the particular issue she was speaking about, she wasn't claiming it as a guiding principle.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Which we do not have to accept. This is the bit you keep missing. Whatever replaces the backstop has to be acceptable to both sides. And the EU are certainly not going to be content with us having tariff free access to their markets without having to pay for it. Your fears only work if you believe it is in the interests of the EU for us to be in the CU free of charge. Otherwise there are plenty of different ways we can agree what replaces it none of which need involve permanent CU membership.

    I'm not missing it, I'm saying [as the Attorney General himself said] that we could end up stuck permanently in the backstop. Once in we have no way out.

    Considering the EU has a major goods trade surplus and wants an open Ireland I do think its in their interests for us to be in the CU free of charge. That's better for them than us diverging.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    AndyJS said:

    It's a bit of a shock to see this on the front page of the Guardian website:

    "Revealed: populist leaders linked to reduced inequality"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/07/revealed-populist-leaders-linked-to-reduced-inequality

    Just how significant is that result? Just look at the scatter plot further down the article!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited March 2019
    Chuka Umunna says TIG would introduce PR, have national service for all school leavers and turn Parliament into a museum and build a new Chamber amongst other policies as well as stand candidates in every seat at the next general election

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-one-of-theresa-may-s-ministers-is-thinking-of-crossing-the-floor-to-join-the-a4085236.html
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Nigelb said:

    Sherrod Brown opts to make the Democratic field slightly less crowded:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/433052-sherrod-brown-says-he-will-not-run-for-president

    Coukd be on the VP list though as he is from Ohio
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    Chuka Umunna says TIG would introduce PR, have national service for all school leavers and turn Parliament into a museum and build a new Chamber amongst other policies as well as stand candidates in every seat at the next general election

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-one-of-theresa-may-s-ministers-is-thinking-of-crossing-the-floor-to-join-the-a4085236.html

    Not really a policy platform that's going to connect with voters' lives, is it?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    Chuka Umunna says TIG would introduce PR, have national service for all school leavers and turn Parliament into a museum and build a new Chamber amongst other policies as well as stand candidates in every seat at the next general election

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-one-of-theresa-may-s-ministers-is-thinking-of-crossing-the-floor-to-join-the-a4085236.html

    Not really a policy platform that's going to connect with voters' lives, is it?
    Unless those voters are Student Union obsessives who ought to be in the Lib Dems already.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,629
    If only there was a international court in some nearby continent to which such a violation could be raised with the hope of redress.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    edit
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Rejecting the deal is only lunacy if you think any Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    As for never: Maybe, maybe not. Scottish devolution got stopped in the 1970s but still went ahead eventually in the 1990s.

    I think if Brexit gets frustrated the idea that matters will just lie there is delusional. The issues that led to Brexit in the first place will still exist. Pent up in this nation will be a lot of annoyed people who will happily go for Brexit again if given another chance - are you suggesting if Brexit stops you'll just like down and play possum and never seek another vote or for for it if another vote happens? The EU will continue to integrate, the Eurozone will continue to integrate.

    Brexit if it gets halted will only be tried again following another referendum - and that will only be called if the PM is themselves a Leaver . . . which means it should then be negotiated smarter than our Remain-backing PM has negotiated it.

    There won't be another referendum. If we do not leave now it is over for good. Like I said if you think otherwise you are delusional.
    Indeed. Any leaver who can't see that remaining on the basis of serving A50 down the road again is a huge, huge bear trap is kidding themselves.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    This is what will happen if these people are allowed near power.

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1103701304327761920

    Ban, close down, hound out anything, anyone, any entity that disagrees with Jezza and his inner circle. BBC, national newspapers, house of lords, police authorities, bank of england independence, OBR, National Stats agency, independent local government agencies and authorities etc etc.

    A unique national and constitutional catastrophe is racing towards us.

    Surely that is exactly why the Conservatives abolished the GLC.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Some shit actually happening, joblessness actually occurring etc might be a start.

    Where the fuck have you been?

    Go talk to Nissan and Honda workers about "some shit actually happening"...
    ICE cars are the past - like the EU.

    What is the disruptive innovation equivalent to electric cars that will make the EU obsolete?
    Based on recent trends, does far-right nationalism count?

    Certainly it's disruptive. Not particularly innovative, though.
    No, it has to be something that is not just a threat to the EU, but something that renders it obsolete, and delivers Richard Tyndall's utopia of economic and social integration without politics.
    Ah. Then all I've got is the Second Coming.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DavidL said:

    Mrs May's "style" is to allow her opponents and detractors untrammeled and unchallenged use of the airwaves for so long that their position becomes the default established in the public discourse and then express bewilderment that everyone does not agree with her.

    I have never seen anything quite like it. It's extraordinary.

    To be fair, there was a brief period before Christmas when she finally tried to go out and persuade people about her "deal": interviews almost daily, all the election-style visits to factories and schools and whathaveyou. But, having spectacularly failed to move the dial with either MPs or the public (I think public approval of the deal did tick up a little bit, but the polls still never placed it much above 20% IIRC), she's gone back to sleep since then it seems.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,629

    A member of Labour's NEC writes:

    Huda Elmi
    @hudaelmi_
    The Equality & Human Rights Commission is a failed experiment. If tomorrow it were to cease in existence, most of the people it was created to support wouldn’t even notice. We need to abolish it & bring back separate, well resourced governmental bodies for each equality strand!

    Do you know, I can't even remember the last time a politician said something sensible. It's just all bollocks all the bloody time. Is there a special school that opened recently or was it always like this and I didn't notice?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,098
    HYUFD said:

    Chuka Umunna says TIG would introduce PR, have national service for all school leavers ...

    Is he trying to placate the Lib Dems by driving TIG's poll ratings down below theirs?
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    This is what will happen if these people are allowed near power.

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1103701304327761920

    Ban, close down, hound out anything, anyone, any entity that disagrees with Jezza and his inner circle. BBC, national newspapers, house of lords, police authorities, bank of england independence, OBR, National Stats agency, independent local government agencies and authorities etc etc.

    A unique national and constitutional catastrophe is racing towards us.

    Don't worry, rb, I'm sure the sheer force of your hysteria will hold back the ocean
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's a bit of a shock to see this on the front page of the Guardian website:

    "Revealed: populist leaders linked to reduced inequality"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/07/revealed-populist-leaders-linked-to-reduced-inequality

    Just how significant is that result? Just look at the scatter plot further down the article!
    Those scatter plots are amazing .... Voodoo Statistics with the Chicken Entrails and Ceremonial Drums.

    It is amazing that someone funded this “research” to the tune of 235,386 euros.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    If that pushed you towards Leave then expect to be disappointed. Size matters ! Lol

    The EU has 500 million consumers and will always get a better deal than the UK.
    Size matters yes, but not necessarily in the way you mean it. Large can be bureaucratic, scelerotic and monolithic. Small can be nimble and agile.

    Australia has better trade deals than the EU. No reason we can't.
    And sometimes when the market is large enough, increasing its size by a factor of 10 will hardly affect the deals at all. The UK is still the world's sixth or 7th largest economy.


    But the government is already discussing zero rating tariffs if we no-deal Brexit.
    How on earth do we then negotiate trade deals ?
    I believe that the proposed zero rating on multiple goods doesn't include most agriculture or vehicles. It also reverts to EU levels after 12 months, so well before a trade deal. I suspect it is making a virtue of neccessity because of the inability of HMRC to cope administratively. The issues will lie in quotas and standards no doubt, rather than tarrifs.
This discussion has been closed.