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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a March 29th UK Brexit down from a 71%

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a March 29th UK Brexit down from a 71% chance to 16% in just five months

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,668
    First? (Everyone else getting coffee?)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,929
    2!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,075

    First? (Everyone else getting coffee?)

    Just made myself a cold brew with almond milk....not quite as wanky as a £15 cup, and no complimentary / complementary cake.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,545
    Letting it through is not enough for the deal to be done by 29 March because there's still loads of paperwork to complete in an impossible timescale. Paradoxically, the only way that date can now be met is if the deal is not done. That then requires no extension to be agreed with the EU.

    That's not impossible and 16% looks about right for that combination to me.

    I'm currently expecting the deal to go down - again - and by about 150. It doesn't look as if it will be remotely close to me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,236
    I don't think ERG will back down. Not next week anyway.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,901
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47499326
    Not building enough walls ;-)
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 63
    Will someone tell May that Brexit doesn't mean Remain.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,321

    Letting it through is not enough for the deal to be done by 29 March because there's still loads of paperwork to complete in an impossible timescale. Paradoxically, the only way that date can now be met is if the deal is not done. That then requires no extension to be agreed with the EU.

    That's not impossible and 16% looks about right for that combination to me.

    I'm currently expecting the deal to go down - again - and by about 150. It doesn't look as if it will be remotely close to me.

    I agree. It's the same voices who were saying it would be close last time, hinting the same.
    How many MPs are actually moving? I think I've counted about 10 who've hinted at softening to the deal. Theresa May needs 116 and she seems to be antagonising the people she needs to be turning.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,786

    First? (Everyone else getting coffee?)

    Thanks to the wonders of time zones, some of us have got beer already ;)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,236
    edited March 8
    Question, when Parliament votes to "take no deal off the table" next Wednesday, followed by a vote to delay on Thursday does Theresa immediately write to Tusk to tell him we want to extend A50? Or does she have to negotiate an extension "face to face" ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,075
    Sandpit said:

    First? (Everyone else getting coffee?)

    Thanks to the wonders of time zones, some of us have got beer already ;)
    Do the religious police know about this?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,786
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think ERG will back down. Not next week anyway.

    Certainly not before the DUP back down.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,786

    Sandpit said:

    First? (Everyone else getting coffee?)

    Thanks to the wonders of time zones, some of us have got beer already ;)
    Do the religious police know about this?
    I promise not to say anything if you don’t?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    At the moment, I think the following is the likeliest path, although of course that doesn't necessarily make it odds on:

    Deal fails.

    We remain.

    Far right rises.

    Politicians in the centre are baffled.

    Incidentally, the far right rising is highly likely to take the form of new parties rather than the parasitical infestation of the Conservatives. Nazis haven't been tolerated on the backbenches of the blues in the same way that Marxists have for the reds.

    That will make rapid Parliamentary progress more difficult. But, as UKIP and now TIG teach us, even a very small party can drastically alter the course of politics.

    In an age where the Newcastle rape gang got less coverage than Julia Hartley-Brewer's knee being touched a decade or two ago, and when an immigrant being pushed is top drawer news but a white man being denied a police position on the basis of his race (and gender/sexuality), there's a window of opportunity for white supremacists/the far right to capitalise on the gaping chasm between ordinary people and the political/media class.

    My worry, one, anyway, is that if people conclude voting for the mainstream parties is worthless, and/or that they want something done to roll back the acceptability of anti-white rhetoric (White Saviour from Lammy, divide and rule from Abbott, male, pale, and stale from various) they may take the view I heard from a Dutch voter some time ago, on why he backed Wilders despite not agreeing with him: the voter felt the country was sick, and he preferred medicine that was too strong to none at all.

    This can be headed off. Regardless of whether we remain, depart in name only, or leave properly (perhaps with no deal at all), politics is going to be very turbulent and the already poisonous atmosphere is likely to intensify. What's urgently needed is some competence, which is starkly lacking from either leadership, with many senior ministers (and shadows) similarly woeful.

    Anyway, that's enough rambling from me.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,519
    edited March 8
    re Crimea and self-determination. Although the latter is an important principle, in international law it isn't the primary consideration. That is whether the current boundary was properly agreed; if it was, then either (a) the country (ie Ukraine) needs to agree to the change of boundary, or (b) the international community needs to overrule the country on the basis that the people (ie Russians) are being persecuted.

    It may seem unfair that it's not simply a matter of self-determination, but many countries include minorities within them, and the legal (and moral?) consensus is that current boundaries should be kept to wherever possible. The alternative is too disruptive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,555
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    First? (Everyone else getting coffee?)

    Thanks to the wonders of time zones, some of us have got beer already ;)
    Do the religious police know about this?
    I promise not to say anything if you don’t?
    Typical immigrants, they never respect or integrate with the host country.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,236
    @Morris_Dancer

    Not sure about "far right" but I do think Farage's Brexit Party will do very well at future elections.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,093
    The US PMI is following the eurozone downwards.

    While it's not in recession territory yet, it is now at a multi year low.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,156
    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Indeed. Can May really survive another heavy defeat? There has to come a point when we conclude that if May is the answer we are asking the wrong question.

    David Herdson said:
    A change of PM will not change the parliamentary/diplomatic maths and will waste precious time.

    I say:
    That has been my view up to now but we have a PM who is utterly unpersuasive, could not build a consensus to save her life and just seems to have no chance of getting a perfectly respectable deal through a hostile Commons. Time for someone else to have a go.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,555
    Given how many half witted Leavers think we get a transition with No Deal then I wouldn’t bet on the ERG backing down.

    We’re leaving with no deal in 21 days.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 371

    At the moment, I think the following is the likeliest path, although of course that doesn't necessarily make it odds on:

    Deal fails.

    We remain.

    Far right rises.

    Politicians in the centre are baffled.

    Incidentally, the far right rising is highly likely to take the form of new parties rather than the parasitical infestation of the Conservatives. Nazis haven't been tolerated on the backbenches of the blues in the same way that Marxists have for the reds.

    That will make rapid Parliamentary progress more difficult. But, as UKIP and now TIG teach us, even a very small party can drastically alter the course of politics.

    In an age where the Newcastle rape gang got less coverage than Julia Hartley-Brewer's knee being touched a decade or two ago, and when an immigrant being pushed is top drawer news but a white man being denied a police position on the basis of his race (and gender/sexuality), there's a window of opportunity for white supremacists/the far right to capitalise on the gaping chasm between ordinary people and the political/media class.

    My worry, one, anyway, is that if people conclude voting for the mainstream parties is worthless, and/or that they want something done to roll back the acceptability of anti-white rhetoric (White Saviour from Lammy, divide and rule from Abbott, male, pale, and stale from various) they may take the view I heard from a Dutch voter some time ago, on why he backed Wilders despite not agreeing with him: the voter felt the country was sick, and he preferred medicine that was too strong to none at all.

    This can be headed off. Regardless of whether we remain, depart in name only, or leave properly (perhaps with no deal at all), politics is going to be very turbulent and the already poisonous atmosphere is likely to intensify. What's urgently needed is some competence, which is starkly lacking from either leadership, with many senior ministers (and shadows) similarly woeful.

    Anyway, that's enough rambling from me.

    Just wondering where the 'competence' is going to come from the 'Far Right'. Zero chance.

    Also, it seems to me, zero chance of leaving with no deal on 29th March, so the 16% is, I think mostly predicated on actually getting a deal done and the logistics sorted. But if Alistair Meeks says that's impossible then it probably is...….Which would make an 84% of not leaving on 29th March generous.

  • MrXMrX Posts: 12
    If May's deal goes through there will have to be an extension and I think the EU 27 will be quick to grant one.

    In the very likely event May's Deal doesn't go through I put the odds highly in favour of parliament asking for an extension. But I'm not sure what happens then.

    Macron has made threats that there can be no extension without a purpose. I've heard less from the other 26 but I'm sure there's a lot of thinking going on behind the scenes. I wouldn't be surprised if an extension comes back with conditions attached.

    What happens then? Does parliament vote on it (I'm guessing they'll accept whatever) or does May take it upon herself to reject the offer and call meaningful vote three now that the clock has been run down and there's no time for parliament to stop her?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,545
    algarkirk said:

    At the moment, I think the following is the likeliest path, although of course that doesn't necessarily make it odds on:

    Deal fails.

    We remain.

    Far right rises.

    Politicians in the centre are baffled.

    Incidentally, the far right rising is highly likely to take the form of new parties rather than the parasitical infestation of the Conservatives. Nazis haven't been tolerated on the backbenches of the blues in the same way that Marxists have for the reds.

    That will make rapid Parliamentary progress more difficult. But, as UKIP and now TIG teach us, even a very small party can drastically alter the course of politics.

    In an age where the Newcastle rape gang got less coverage than Julia Hartley-Brewer's knee being touched a decade or two ago, and when an immigrant being pushed is top drawer news but a white man being denied a police position on the basis of his race (and gender/sexuality), there's a window of opportunity for white supremacists/the far right to capitalise on the gaping chasm between ordinary people and the political/media class.

    My worry, one, anyway, is that if people conclude voting for the mainstream parties is worthless, and/or that they want something done to roll back the acceptability of anti-white rhetoric (White Saviour from Lammy, divide and rule from Abbott, male, pale, and stale from various) they may take the view I heard from a Dutch voter some time ago, on why he backed Wilders despite not agreeing with him: the voter felt the country was sick, and he preferred medicine that was too strong to none at all.

    This can be headed off. Regardless of whether we remain, depart in name only, or leave properly (perhaps with no deal at all), politics is going to be very turbulent and the already poisonous atmosphere is likely to intensify. What's urgently needed is some competence, which is starkly lacking from either leadership, with many senior ministers (and shadows) similarly woeful.

    Anyway, that's enough rambling from me.

    Just wondering where the 'competence' is going to come from the 'Far Right'. Zero chance.

    Also, it seems to me, zero chance of leaving with no deal on 29th March, so the 16% is, I think mostly predicated on actually getting a deal done and the logistics sorted. But if Alistair Meeks says that's impossible then it probably is...….Which would make an 84% of not leaving on 29th March generous.

    Even Theresa May today obfuscated about whether agreeing to the deal would mean that Britain left the EU on time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,786

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    First? (Everyone else getting coffee?)

    Thanks to the wonders of time zones, some of us have got beer already ;)
    Do the religious police know about this?
    I promise not to say anything if you don’t?
    Typical immigrants, they never respect or integrate with the host country.
    Perfectly legal here, when done by licence-holders in a private home or hotel.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,634

    Given how many half witted Leavers think we get a transition with No Deal then I wouldn’t bet on the ERG backing down.

    We’re leaving with no deal in 21 days.

    Nicky Morgan is encouraging them (or she's on manoeuvrers)...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Gin, it'll be interesting to see how UKIP, as it now is, and Farage's party do.

    However, my guess, and I could be wrong (predicting politics now is not easy), is that some other organisation will spring up. And *that* might be the most dangerous one.

    Mr. Eagles, that's what the mood music suggests, and explains why the deal passing has lengthened from 2.5 to 4.33 (Ladbrokes).
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393
    Piquantly, I am flying to a major Festival of Thriller Writers on March 29, in Lyon. Will the British contingent be kept in a special holding pen? Will we have to be interviewed, by continental journalists, while in some special quarantine zone?

    I agree with the markets, we won’t have left by March 29.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Kirk, the 'competence' was a reference to the main parties, not new ones.

    It's interesting that of UKIP, although a few others were around, only Farage could be considered a big political beast.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,519

    At the moment, I think the following is the likeliest path, although of course that doesn't necessarily make it odds on:

    Deal fails.

    We remain.

    Far right rises.

    Politicians in the centre are baffled.

    No-one will be baffled.

    It's a risk that a country sometimes has to take. And if the far-right rises, given time the far-right will also sink.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,786

    Mr. Gin, it'll be interesting to see how UKIP, as it now is, and Farage's party do.

    However, my guess, and I could be wrong (predicting politics now is not easy), is that some other organisation will spring up. And *that* might be the most dangerous one.

    Mr. Eagles, that's what the mood music suggests, and explains why the deal passing has lengthened from 2.5 to 4.33 (Ladbrokes).

    Whatever else might be said about Nigel Farage, he did a very good job of dealing with the far-right when he was in charge of UKIP. The same cannot be said for the current manifestation of that party.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Dadge, it wasn't so long ago that the thought of anti-Semitism rising so rapidly and the far left occupying the front bench of the Opposition seemed fanciful. Complacency was not the friend of Cameron in the referendum, nor is it the friend of those who oppose the far left and far right.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393
    edited March 8
    ON topic, I am in Nepal right now, doing a travel piece for The Times.

    It’s a troubled country with amazing culture and horrible poverty and quite nice beer.

    But my, oh my, what it does have is beautiful people. The men often look like young dashing Hussars, well built and athletic, the women are even better: generally exquisite, with a mix of sultry southern brown eyes, high Aryan cheekbones, and the rosy complexion of the steppes.

    Having now travelled the entire world (apart from Moldova) I can now say with authority the best looking people in the world, on average, are the Nepalese.

    They are also some of the poorest. There must be a profound lesson here, but I haven’t grasped it yet.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,118

    Given how many half witted Leavers think we get a transition with No Deal then I wouldn’t bet on the ERG backing down.

    We’re leaving with no deal in 21 days.

    Far wore than that, there was a time when if someone put in a 1980s pop reference in a thread it would be acknowledged. I do a whole line and it's not even noticed, that is to where Brexit has taken us.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    Given how many half witted Leavers think we get a transition with No Deal then I wouldn’t bet on the ERG backing down.

    We’re leaving with no deal in 21 days.

    Nicky Morgan is encouraging them (or she's on manoeuvrers)...

    It's logical and preferential to both parties to a No Deal crash out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,555
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    First? (Everyone else getting coffee?)

    Thanks to the wonders of time zones, some of us have got beer already ;)
    Do the religious police know about this?
    I promise not to say anything if you don’t?
    Typical immigrants, they never respect or integrate with the host country.
    Perfectly legal here, when done by licence-holders in a private home or hotel.
    Respect local cultures. That’s what lots of Brexiteers say to immigrants to the UK.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,555
    SeanT said:

    Piquantly, I am flying to a major Festival of Thriller Writers on March 29, in Lyon. Will the British contingent be kept in a special holding pen? Will we have to be interviewed, by continental journalists, while in some special quarantine zone?

    I agree with the markets, we won’t have left by March 29.

    There’ll be a special pen for Leavers.

    Remainers will be put up in 5 star hotels.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,594
    I think if the ERG vote down the deal on offer we will likely end up remaining after a lot of huffing and puffing. I suspect that in a short time politics will largely go back to normal. The British will shrug their shoulders and say 'whatever'. The £ will rise, the economy improve and Euroscepticism will return to the chamber of the EP. Everyone else will swiftly forget. Most have already done so.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,565

    Letting it through is not enough for the deal to be done by 29 March because there's still loads of paperwork to complete in an impossible timescale. Paradoxically, the only way that date can now be met is if the deal is not done. That then requires no extension to be agreed with the EU.

    That's not impossible and 16% looks about right for that combination to me.

    I'm currently expecting the deal to go down - again - and by about 150. It doesn't look as if it will be remotely close to me.

    I agree with that, apart from that I think the margin will be closer than 150 (but then I thought that last time so what do I know?).

    But yes, the only way the UK leaves on 29/3 now is with No Deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    FPT
    kinabalu said:

    Fundamentalist Islam is extremely similar to fascism.

    Both are belief systems.
    Both have inspired violence.
    Both have violent acts taken out in their name.
    Both have ideologues and preachers.
    Both view outsiders as lessers.

    If you are prepared to reject one violent belief system then why not others?

    How many of the world's 2 billion Muslims do you think believe in the violent subjugation of non believers?
    A small percentage, which is why I didn't say Islam. I said Fundamentalist Islam.

    Not all Muslims believe in Fundamentalist Islam, any more than not all Nationalists are Fascists.

    I would equate any organised religion with nationalism, but fundamentalist religion with fundamentalist nationalism [ie fascism].
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Felix, I think that's very unlikely.

    I suspect that, regardless of what happens in terms of remaining/leaving, things are going to be very fraught and bitter for quite some time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 371

    Mr. Kirk, the 'competence' was a reference to the main parties, not new ones.

    It's interesting that of UKIP, although a few others were around, only Farage could be considered a big political beast.

    I think there's enough competence allied to decency on the collective back benches to run a country in an emergency. They would not all agree on everything, but of course under the cover of the rhetoric of party, the centre, centre right and centre left are very closely allied in terms of fundamental policy, with the notable exceptions of Scottish independence (most SNP MPs are of course sensible and moderate in general terms despite their desire to put a hard border just up the road from me) and of course Brexit, which skews everything.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,929
    felix said:

    I think if the ERG vote down the deal on offer we will likely end up remaining after a lot of huffing and puffing. I suspect that in a short time politics will largely go back to normal. The British will shrug their shoulders and say 'whatever'. The £ will rise, the economy improve and Euroscepticism will return to the chamber of the EP. Everyone else will swiftly forget. Most have already done so.

    Is this what will happen, or what you want to happen? :p
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393

    SeanT said:

    Piquantly, I am flying to a major Festival of Thriller Writers on March 29, in Lyon. Will the British contingent be kept in a special holding pen? Will we have to be interviewed, by continental journalists, while in some special quarantine zone?

    I agree with the markets, we won’t have left by March 29.

    There’ll be a special pen for Leavers.

    Remainers will be put up in 5 star hotels.
    You’d be surprised how many of my fellow writers/journos are (sometimes secret) Leavers. Indeed I have been startled by the number of quite senior editors/novelists/artists of my acquaintance who have quietly told me “yes, I am Leave as well”

    The tantrum-throwing Remainery Ian McEwans of this world get all the attention, as tantrum throwers do, but the idea that all artists/writers etc are Remain is as clumsy and foolish as the idea “all old people are Brexiteers”
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Thompson, the clear majority of Muslims are fundamentalists. I don't say that in a pejorative way, only in reference to their approach to religious books. Biblical fundamentalists (and literalists, who are almost identical) are in a minority compared to conservatives (a term which journalists abuse and misuse all the time...) and liberals. That is not true of Islam.
  • Nigelb said:
    And I am sure that if he were a Democrat it would get just as much. How much of that twitter stuff couonts as 'hate speech'?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,565
    DavidL said:

    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Indeed. Can May really survive another heavy defeat? There has to come a point when we conclude that if May is the answer we are asking the wrong question.

    David Herdson said:
    A change of PM will not change the parliamentary/diplomatic maths and will waste precious time.

    I say:
    That has been my view up to now but we have a PM who is utterly unpersuasive, could not build a consensus to save her life and just seems to have no chance of getting a perfectly respectable deal through a hostile Commons. Time for someone else to have a go.

    But when is that time? May? If the Tories could agree on a successor unanimously then there might be something in that but the very nature of the situation means that they couldn't. If there were consensus on the leader then there could be consensus on what to do about the deal, and on Brexit in general.

    I don't disagree about May's deficiency in leadership skills but even if there were someone who demonstrably had those skills and could sell a better outcome (who?), and they could take over tomorrow (could they?), there still remains the hostile Commons and intransigent EU.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,156

    Letting it through is not enough for the deal to be done by 29 March because there's still loads of paperwork to complete in an impossible timescale. Paradoxically, the only way that date can now be met is if the deal is not done. That then requires no extension to be agreed with the EU.

    That's not impossible and 16% looks about right for that combination to me.

    I'm currently expecting the deal to go down - again - and by about 150. It doesn't look as if it will be remotely close to me.

    I agree with that, apart from that I think the margin will be closer than 150 (but then I thought that last time so what do I know?).

    But yes, the only way the UK leaves on 29/3 now is with No Deal.
    It is incompetence on a truly epic scale. Unprecedented in my life time (57).
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393
    felix said:

    I think if the ERG vote down the deal on offer we will likely end up remaining after a lot of huffing and puffing. I suspect that in a short time politics will largely go back to normal. The British will shrug their shoulders and say 'whatever'. The £ will rise, the economy improve and Euroscepticism will return to the chamber of the EP. Everyone else will swiftly forget. Most have already done so.

    Classic wishful thinking, AKA “hopecasting” amongst weather geeks.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,156

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Indeed. Can May really survive another heavy defeat? There has to come a point when we conclude that if May is the answer we are asking the wrong question.

    David Herdson said:
    A change of PM will not change the parliamentary/diplomatic maths and will waste precious time.

    I say:
    That has been my view up to now but we have a PM who is utterly unpersuasive, could not build a consensus to save her life and just seems to have no chance of getting a perfectly respectable deal through a hostile Commons. Time for someone else to have a go.

    But when is that time? May? If the Tories could agree on a successor unanimously then there might be something in that but the very nature of the situation means that they couldn't. If there were consensus on the leader then there could be consensus on what to do about the deal, and on Brexit in general.

    I don't disagree about May's deficiency in leadership skills but even if there were someone who demonstrably had those skills and could sell a better outcome (who?), and they could take over tomorrow (could they?), there still remains the hostile Commons and intransigent EU.
    With hindsight that time was in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 election. When now is a bit trickier but we are stuck. I think Brexit is now doomed but the bitterness this is going to engender is going to be massive and May has to take much of the blame (along with the Extremely Reckless Gits, of course).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,253
    edited March 8

    Mr. Thompson, the clear majority of Muslims are fundamentalists. I don't say that in a pejorative way, only in reference to their approach to religious books. Biblical fundamentalists (and literalists, who are almost identical) are in a minority compared to conservatives (a term which journalists abuse and misuse all the time...) and liberals. That is not true of Islam.

    Do you have any backup for that claim ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,854
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Indeed. Can May really survive another heavy defeat? There has to come a point when we conclude that if May is the answer we are asking the wrong question.

    David Herdson said:
    A change of PM will not change the parliamentary/diplomatic maths and will waste precious time.

    I say:
    That has been my view up to now but we have a PM who is utterly unpersuasive, could not build a consensus to save her life and just seems to have no chance of getting a perfectly respectable deal through a hostile Commons. Time for someone else to have a go.

    But when is that time? May? If the Tories could agree on a successor unanimously then there might be something in that but the very nature of the situation means that they couldn't. If there were consensus on the leader then there could be consensus on what to do about the deal, and on Brexit in general.

    I don't disagree about May's deficiency in leadership skills but even if there were someone who demonstrably had those skills and could sell a better outcome (who?), and they could take over tomorrow (could they?), there still remains the hostile Commons and intransigent EU.
    With hindsight that time was in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 election. When now is a bit trickier but we are stuck. I think Brexit is now doomed but the bitterness this is going to engender is going to be massive and May has to take much of the blame (along with the Extremely Reckless Gits, of course).
    I don't obviously put this forward as a serious suggestion, but if she were working for remain all along she has played a blinder. It is now looking highly unlikely we are going to leave at all. And the blame is squarely on the ERG and a few other prominent leavers who bottled the jobs they were given. How is the campaign to leave ever going to get going again?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 776

    Mr. Thompson, the clear majority of Muslims are fundamentalists. I don't say that in a pejorative way, only in reference to their approach to religious books. Biblical fundamentalists (and literalists, who are almost identical) are in a minority compared to conservatives (a term which journalists abuse and misuse all the time...) and liberals. That is not true of Islam.

    In the UK? Worldwide?

    Either way, I don't think you're right.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 483
    edited March 8
    To break the log jam needs a public vote. This will come appropriately with the European elections. You may well see labour and Tory decimated by the smaller parties. This may scare both of them enough to implement a soft Brexit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,156

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Indeed. Can May really survive another heavy defeat? There has to come a point when we conclude that if May is the answer we are asking the wrong question.

    David Herdson said:
    A change of PM will not change the parliamentary/diplomatic maths and will waste precious time.

    I say:
    That has been my view up to now but we have a PM who is utterly unpersuasive, could not build a consensus to save her life and just seems to have no chance of getting a perfectly respectable deal through a hostile Commons. Time for someone else to have a go.

    But when is that time? May? If the Tories could agree on a successor unanimously then there might be something in that but the very nature of the situation means that they couldn't. If there were consensus on the leader then there could be consensus on what to do about the deal, and on Brexit in general.

    I don't disagree about May's deficiency in leadership skills but even if there were someone who demonstrably had those skills and could sell a better outcome (who?), and they could take over tomorrow (could they?), there still remains the hostile Commons and intransigent EU.
    With hindsight that time was in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 election. When now is a bit trickier but we are stuck. I think Brexit is now doomed but the bitterness this is going to engender is going to be massive and May has to take much of the blame (along with the Extremely Reckless Gits, of course).
    I don't obviously put this forward as a serious suggestion, but if she were working for remain all along she has played a blinder. It is now looking highly unlikely we are going to leave at all. And the blame is squarely on the ERG and a few other prominent leavers who bottled the jobs they were given. How is the campaign to leave ever going to get going again?
    I don't believe for a moment she is that competent.

    The answer to how this campaign starts again is firstly to remove as many as possible of our current MPs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Pulpstar, I learnt it at school (A-level in Religious Studies).

    Don't have my school books to hand, as you might expect. Checking Wikipedia, this is under the Revelations section:
    "The Quran (literally, "Recitation") is viewed by Muslims as the final revelation and literal word of God..."

    That's a literalist/fundamentalist perspective of the Quran and, I believe, the position held by the vast majority of Muslims.

    Later, in the Sunni section:
    "Traditionalist theology is characterized by its adherence to a literal understanding of the Quran and the Sunnah, the belief in the Quran to be uncreated and eternal, and opposes reason (kalam) in religious matters"

    Both those excerpts do have source numbers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,370

    At the moment, I think the following is the likeliest path, although of course that doesn't necessarily make it odds on:

    Deal fails.

    We remain.

    Far right rises.

    Politicians in the centre are baffled.

    Incidentally, the far right rising is highly likely to take the form of new parties rather than the parasitical infestation of the Conservatives. Nazis haven't been tolerated on the backbenches of the blues in the same way that Marxists have for the reds.

    That will make rapid Parliamentary progress more difficult. But, as UKIP and now TIG teach us, even a very small party can drastically alter the course of politics.

    In an age where the Newcastle rape gang got less coverage than Julia Hartley-Brewer's knee being touched a decade or two ago, and when an immigrant being pushed is top drawer news but a white man being denied a police position on the basis of his race (and gender/sexuality), there's a window of opportunity for white supremacists/the far right to capitalise on the gaping chasm between ordinary people and the political/media class.

    My worry, one, anyway, is that if people conclude voting for the mainstream parties is worthless, and/or that they want something done to roll back the acceptability of anti-white rhetoric (White Saviour from Lammy, divide and rule from Abbott, male, pale, and stale from various) they may take the view I heard from a Dutch voter some time ago, on why he backed Wilders despite not agreeing with him: the voter felt the country was sick, and he preferred medicine that was too strong to none at all.

    This can be headed off. Regardless of whether we remain, depart in name only, or leave properly (perhaps with no deal at all), politics is going to be very turbulent and the already poisonous atmosphere is likely to intensify. What's urgently needed is some competence, which is starkly lacking from either leadership, with many senior ministers (and shadows) similarly woeful.

    Anyway, that's enough rambling from me.

    Brexit is not the cure or even a treatment for the disease that is far right politics. They have already had their hands on the levers of power through the Brexit process and their politics of hate have gained some appearance of normality through UKIP and Farage. The referendum was possibly the start of something very unpleasant, and the genie is not going back into the bottle. We will need some very powerful voices of calm and moderation to stop it. Where he/she will come from is as yet unknown.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,156
    Just maybe Liverpool might win the league after all: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47501423
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,409
    Unless people know something the bookies don't its hard to see us remaining. No deal coming in, 2nd ref coming out and People's Vote campaign fading. Cam't rule anything out for sure though.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,370

    Mr. Pulpstar, I learnt it at school (A-level in Religious Studies).

    Don't have my school books to hand, as you might expect. Checking Wikipedia, this is under the Revelations section:
    "The Quran (literally, "Recitation") is viewed by Muslims as the final revelation and literal word of God..."

    That's a literalist/fundamentalist perspective of the Quran and, I believe, the position held by the vast majority of Muslims.

    Later, in the Sunni section:
    "Traditionalist theology is characterized by its adherence to a literal understanding of the Quran and the Sunnah, the belief in the Quran to be uncreated and eternal, and opposes reason (kalam) in religious matters"

    Both those excerpts do have source numbers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam

    Many Christians, particularly fundamentalists, believe in the literal truth of the Holy Bible, not just the New Testament, but also the old. Suggesting that all Muslims think homosexuals should be thrown off tall buildings is really as silly as suggesting large numbers of Christians believe blasphemers should be stoned.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393
    Endillion said:

    Mr. Thompson, the clear majority of Muslims are fundamentalists. I don't say that in a pejorative way, only in reference to their approach to religious books. Biblical fundamentalists (and literalists, who are almost identical) are in a minority compared to conservatives (a term which journalists abuse and misuse all the time...) and liberals. That is not true of Islam.

    In the UK? Worldwide?

    Either way, I don't think you're right.
    Morris Dancer is taking “fundamentalist” to mean “I believe my Holy Book is literally the word of God, beginning to end”. In that respect he is surely right. The whole point of Islam is that you entirely believe in the words of the Prophet, as expressed in the Koran, in a way that is not true of, say, Christians and the Bible, post the Enlightenment


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,413
    Mother jailed for 11 years over FGM.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-47502089

    Good.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,519
    DavidL said:

    Just maybe Liverpool might win the league after all: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47501423

    About time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,156

    Mother jailed for 11 years over FGM.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-47502089

    Good.

    Yep.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,786
    DavidL said:

    Just maybe Liverpool might win the league after all: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47501423

    Could they get a Glasgow Rangers as punishment I wonder?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,075
    Former US intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning has been jailed for refusing to testify before an investigation into Wikileaks.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47501763
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,156
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Just maybe Liverpool might win the league after all: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47501423

    Could they get a Glasgow Rangers as punishment I wonder?
    Unlikely but an entertaining thought.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,565
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Indeed. Can May really survive another heavy defeat? There has to come a point when we conclude that if May is the answer we are asking the wrong question.

    David Herdson said:
    A change of PM will not change the parliamentary/diplomatic maths and will waste precious time.

    I say:
    That has been my view up to now but we have a PM who is utterly unpersuasive, could not build a consensus to save her life and just seems to have no chance of getting a perfectly respectable deal through a hostile Commons. Time for someone else to have a go.

    But when is that time? May? If the Tories could agree on a successor unanimously then there might be something in that but the very nature of the situation means that they couldn't. If there were consensus on the leader then there could be consensus on what to do about the deal, and on Brexit in general.

    I don't disagree about May's deficiency in leadership skills but even if there were someone who demonstrably had those skills and could sell a better outcome (who?), and they could take over tomorrow (could they?), there still remains the hostile Commons and intransigent EU.
    With hindsight that time was in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 election. When now is a bit trickier but we are stuck. I think Brexit is now doomed but the bitterness this is going to engender is going to be massive and May has to take much of the blame (along with the Extremely Reckless Gits, of course).
    That's all true but trying to change PM now won't make it any better. Doing it this summer, on the other hand, will.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Feel I should state again:

    fundamentalist has a specific meaning in religion, namely the view that a text (the Quran, in this case) is literally the Word of God. That the events within literally happened. (The difference between a literalist and fundamentalist is that the former believes every single thing is 100% right, and a fundamentalist will accept that there might be the odd errant comma and apostrophe due to human failing in copying the document).

    Bit annoyed that I tracked down the polling from Trevor Phillips' programme a few years ago and it doesn't actually seem to ask about views on the Quran. Shame.

    (It's at https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/ and search for Muslims Survey to find it).
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,519

    Mr. Dadge, it wasn't so long ago that the thought of anti-Semitism rising so rapidly and the far left occupying the front bench of the Opposition seemed fanciful. Complacency was not the friend of Cameron in the referendum, nor is it the friend of those who oppose the far left and far right.

    The message seems to be: support the (unreasonable) Right or endure the (hateful) Far Right. I'll take my chances.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,786

    Mr. Pulpstar, I learnt it at school (A-level in Religious Studies).

    Don't have my school books to hand, as you might expect. Checking Wikipedia, this is under the Revelations section:
    "The Quran (literally, "Recitation") is viewed by Muslims as the final revelation and literal word of God..."

    That's a literalist/fundamentalist perspective of the Quran and, I believe, the position held by the vast majority of Muslims.

    Later, in the Sunni section:
    "Traditionalist theology is characterized by its adherence to a literal understanding of the Quran and the Sunnah, the belief in the Quran to be uncreated and eternal, and opposes reason (kalam) in religious matters"

    Both those excerpts do have source numbers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam

    Mr Dancer, it’s not often we disagree but I’m going to object to that. The vast majority of Muslims are peaceful people who live their lives without resorting to violence of any sort. I live among them. There are a tiny minority who wish death on others in the name of their religion, but they remain a tiny minority.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,565

    Mr. Pulpstar, I learnt it at school (A-level in Religious Studies).

    Don't have my school books to hand, as you might expect. Checking Wikipedia, this is under the Revelations section:
    "The Quran (literally, "Recitation") is viewed by Muslims as the final revelation and literal word of God..."

    That's a literalist/fundamentalist perspective of the Quran and, I believe, the position held by the vast majority of Muslims.

    Later, in the Sunni section:
    "Traditionalist theology is characterized by its adherence to a literal understanding of the Quran and the Sunnah, the belief in the Quran to be uncreated and eternal, and opposes reason (kalam) in religious matters"

    Both those excerpts do have source numbers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam

    Many Christians, particularly fundamentalists, believe in the literal truth of the Holy Bible, not just the New Testament, but also the old. Suggesting that all Muslims think homosexuals should be thrown off tall buildings is really as silly as suggesting large numbers of Christians believe blasphemers should be stoned.
    However, there *are* plenty of muslims who will actively campaign against homosexuality in aggressive and intimidating ways. I don't think there are that many Christians who would campaign in like manner against taking God's name in vain.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,236
    Brom said:

    Unless people know something the bookies don't its hard to see us remaining. No deal coming in, 2nd ref coming out and People's Vote campaign fading. Cam't rule anything out for sure though.

    Just struck me that we're now only three weeks from departure. Can we really call it all off with three weeks to go?

    I don't think so somehow...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 776
    SeanT said:

    Endillion said:

    Mr. Thompson, the clear majority of Muslims are fundamentalists. I don't say that in a pejorative way, only in reference to their approach to religious books. Biblical fundamentalists (and literalists, who are almost identical) are in a minority compared to conservatives (a term which journalists abuse and misuse all the time...) and liberals. That is not true of Islam.

    In the UK? Worldwide?

    Either way, I don't think you're right.
    Morris Dancer is taking “fundamentalist” to mean “I believe my Holy Book is literally the word of God, beginning to end”. In that respect he is surely right. The whole point of Islam is that you entirely believe in the words of the Prophet, as expressed in the Koran, in a way that is not true of, say, Christians and the Bible, post the Enlightenment


    Yes, I hear that, and having re-read his post I suspect this is at most an argument about semantics.

    I'm just very unconvinced as to the extent to which ordinary people (even deeply committed religious people) actually spend enough time thinking and caring about religious dogma that they could be considered "fundamentalists."

    Again, appreciate that this was not the point being made.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,370
    Endillion said:

    Mr. Thompson, the clear majority of Muslims are fundamentalists. I don't say that in a pejorative way, only in reference to their approach to religious books. Biblical fundamentalists (and literalists, who are almost identical) are in a minority compared to conservatives (a term which journalists abuse and misuse all the time...) and liberals. That is not true of Islam.

    In the UK? Worldwide?

    Either way, I don't think you're right.
    Mr Dancer speaks some small amount of truth, but rather like a fundamentalist preacher he is being somewhat selective (though probably unintentionally). You cannot equate Islam with Christianity because they are massively different in the way they are "governed". As I understand it, many Muslim preachers, particularly the more fanatical, are self appointed "scholars". There is not the structure that there is to the Roman Catholic, CofE or Orthodox churches. Hence the reason why it is even harder to generalise about Muslims than it is to generalise about Christians, and why it is harder to influence thinking.

    Trying to opine about religions based upon GCE RS and Wikipedia is somewhat unwise.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,277
    Looks like there may be some movement (but read the following tweets as well):


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Foremain, in 2016, polling showed 12% of British Muslims tended to disagree and 35% strongly disagreed that homosexuals should be accepted as teachers (I happened to still have that poll up).

    Also, 14% tended to disagree and 38% strongly disagreed that homosexuality should be legal.

    I never said *all* Muslims believe anything. I said a clear majority had a fundamentalist view of the Quran. I'd welcome any polling links that confirm or deny that.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,370

    Mr. Pulpstar, I learnt it at school (A-level in Religious Studies).

    Don't have my school books to hand, as you might expect. Checking Wikipedia, this is under the Revelations section:
    "The Quran (literally, "Recitation") is viewed by Muslims as the final revelation and literal word of God..."

    That's a literalist/fundamentalist perspective of the Quran and, I believe, the position held by the vast majority of Muslims.

    Later, in the Sunni section:
    "Traditionalist theology is characterized by its adherence to a literal understanding of the Quran and the Sunnah, the belief in the Quran to be uncreated and eternal, and opposes reason (kalam) in religious matters"

    Both those excerpts do have source numbers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam

    Many Christians, particularly fundamentalists, believe in the literal truth of the Holy Bible, not just the New Testament, but also the old. Suggesting that all Muslims think homosexuals should be thrown off tall buildings is really as silly as suggesting large numbers of Christians believe blasphemers should be stoned.
    However, there *are* plenty of muslims who will actively campaign against homosexuality in aggressive and intimidating ways. I don't think there are that many Christians who would campaign in like manner against taking God's name in vain.
    I guess you don't remember when Monty Python brought out a film called "the Life of Brian" then?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,786
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Just maybe Liverpool might win the league after all: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47501423

    Could they get a Glasgow Rangers as punishment I wonder?
    Unlikely but an entertaining thought.
    I was indeed entertained at the thought!
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,594

    Mr. Felix, I think that's very unlikely.

    I suspect that, regardless of what happens in terms of remaining/leaving, things are going to be very fraught and bitter for quite some time.

    Maybe on here but not out in the real world.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,594
    RobD said:

    felix said:

    I think if the ERG vote down the deal on offer we will likely end up remaining after a lot of huffing and puffing. I suspect that in a short time politics will largely go back to normal. The British will shrug their shoulders and say 'whatever'. The £ will rise, the economy improve and Euroscepticism will return to the chamber of the EP. Everyone else will swiftly forget. Most have already done so.

    Is this what will happen, or what you want to happen? :p
    Bit of both :)
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,271

    Given how many half witted Leavers think we get a transition with No Deal then I wouldn’t bet on the ERG backing down.

    We’re leaving with no deal in 21 days.

    You sound confident on that TSE. Do you the EU would let us have the transition period to adjust to WTO / negotiate a new FTA / avoid cliff edge in return for payment to end of 2020?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 776

    Looks like there may be some movement (but read the following tweets as well):


    That won't wash. Still leaves us as a rule taker with no input. ERG will reject flat out, although DUP response will be interesting.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Sandpit, I don't believe a majority of Muslims are violent, and I didn't say that. I agree those that are violent are a small minority.

    I used the terms literalist/fundamentalist (correctly, as it happens) to refer to the majority Muslim view of the Quran. That's one of the key ways it's different to Christianity which has a conservative*/liberal majority.

    *Journalist misuse the term 'conservative' in a religious sense all the time, speaking of things like "Conservative clerics from Iran". Conservative, religiously, just means that someone holds much, but not all, of the contents of a religious text to be literally true and believes that the whole text has at least implicit value (ie parables teaching important lessons).

    It's fascinating, if tiring to repeat myself with what I thought was a straightforward statement, that so many here have apparently never heard that (correct) definition of 'fundamentalist' before. The term itself is not pejorative, it just refers to a literal or near literal view of a religious text.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,519

    Feel I should state again:

    fundamentalist has a specific meaning in religion, namely the view that a text (the Quran, in this case) is literally the Word of God. That the events within literally happened. (The difference between a literalist and fundamentalist is that the former believes every single thing is 100% right, and a fundamentalist will accept that there might be the odd errant comma and apostrophe due to human failing in copying the document).

    Bit annoyed that I tracked down the polling from Trevor Phillips' programme a few years ago and it doesn't actually seem to ask about views on the Quran. Shame.

    (It's at https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/ and search for Muslims Survey to find it).

    One problem with this discussion is that even if we agree that most Muslims are literalists/fundamentalists (which however is unlikely, if you think about how people live in many Muslim countries) it is still open to interpretation how a "true" Muslim should live. For example, for most Muslims the concept of jihad is rarely if ever to be expressed violently.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,280
    SeanT said:

    ON topic, I am in Nepal right now, doing a travel piece for The Times.

    It’s a troubled country with amazing culture and horrible poverty and quite nice beer.

    But my, oh my, what it does have is beautiful people. The men often look like young dashing Hussars, well built and athletic, the women are even better: generally exquisite, with a mix of sultry southern brown eyes, high Aryan cheekbones, and the rosy complexion of the steppes.

    Having now travelled the entire world (apart from Moldova) I can now say with authority the best looking people in the world, on average, are the Nepalese.

    They are also some of the poorest. There must be a profound lesson here, but I haven’t grasped it yet.

    Nepal doesn't have any steppes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,277
    Endillion said:

    Looks like there may be some movement (but read the following tweets as well):


    That won't wash. Still leaves us as a rule taker with no input. ERG will reject flat out, although DUP response will be interesting.
    I think the DUP won't wear it because it would leave NI in a different status from the rest of the UK.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 776

    Mr. Foremain, in 2016, polling showed 12% of British Muslims tended to disagree and 35% strongly disagreed that homosexuals should be accepted as teachers (I happened to still have that poll up).

    Also, 14% tended to disagree and 38% strongly disagreed that homosexuality should be legal.

    I never said *all* Muslims believe anything. I said a clear majority had a fundamentalist view of the Quran. I'd welcome any polling links that confirm or deny that.

    So, about half, and no evidence whether it's on religious or cultural grounds? That doesn't exactly help your "clear majority" claim.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,370
    felix said:

    Mr. Felix, I think that's very unlikely.

    I suspect that, regardless of what happens in terms of remaining/leaving, things are going to be very fraught and bitter for quite some time.

    Maybe on here but not out in the real world.
    I am tempted to agree with you. There will be a number of swivel-eyed septuagenarians and maybe an Islamaphobic thriller writer who will get very cross if it doesn't happen, but they won't exactly be storming the Bastille in their bathchairs. It'll probably die down in a very British fashion and people will say "well that was a waste of time wasn't it? Where are you goin' on your holiday?"
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,022
    SeanT said:

    Endillion said:

    Mr. Thompson, the clear majority of Muslims are fundamentalists. I don't say that in a pejorative way, only in reference to their approach to religious books. Biblical fundamentalists (and literalists, who are almost identical) are in a minority compared to conservatives (a term which journalists abuse and misuse all the time...) and liberals. That is not true of Islam.

    In the UK? Worldwide?

    Either way, I don't think you're right.
    Morris Dancer is taking “fundamentalist” to mean “I believe my Holy Book is literally the word of God, beginning to end”. In that respect he is surely right. The whole point of Islam is that you entirely believe in the words of the Prophet, as expressed in the Koran, in a way that is not true of, say, Christians and the Bible, post the Enlightenment


    Right. There are some wobbles in Christian countries, see for example the evangelicals in the US, or 20th century Ireland, but in general there is secular government and bible interpretation. Though maybe non-Western Christianity is more literal, if one considers the tensions in the Anglican communion as an example.

    I don't know enough about Islam to make specific judgements, but in general it's clear that they aren't as far down that road as Christianity is and, compared to when Turkey was established as an avowedly secular state, it seems as though Islam has become more fundamentalist rather than less.

    That said, I worry about the future fire Christian minorities in Muslim countries when I hear people stating that there's no room for Muslims in Christian countries.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Endillion, that doesn't include those who didn't express a view either way... I think that was circa 22%. Which would give a 20 points lead or so to those who wanted homosexuality banned.

    Anyway, if you have any polling that shows a majority of Muslims don't believe the Quran to be literally/fundamentally true, I'd be glad to see it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,460

    Looks like there may be some movement (but read the following tweets as well):


    May/ERG would shaft the DUP with that plan.

    Having said that, it is actually one of the more sensible Brexit outcomes. Given there has to be checks somewhere in Ireland if the UK diverges from the EU, the Stranraer to Larne ferry is the obvious place to have them. It is localised to a couple of ferry ports, they have the time to do them, lorries are going through other checks anyway, it keeps the land border with 300 crossing points clean. Nortthen Ireland, which doesn't have much going for it economically, gets a free trade zone.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,370

    Mr. Foremain, in 2016, polling showed 12% of British Muslims tended to disagree and 35% strongly disagreed that homosexuals should be accepted as teachers (I happened to still have that poll up).

    Also, 14% tended to disagree and 38% strongly disagreed that homosexuality should be legal.

    I never said *all* Muslims believe anything. I said a clear majority had a fundamentalist view of the Quran. I'd welcome any polling links that confirm or deny that.

    I think if you polled fundamentalist Christians you would find the numbers would be higher. This does mean that both groups have a value set that is out of step with the rest of our liberal society, but it does not mean to say that we should fear them because of it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,280
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Indeed. Can May really survive another heavy defeat? There has to come a point when we conclude that if May is the answer we are asking the wrong question.

    David Herdson said:
    A change of PM will not change the parliamentary/diplomatic maths and will waste precious time.

    I say:
    That has been my view up to now but we have a PM who is utterly unpersuasive, could not build a consensus to save her life and just seems to have no chance of getting a perfectly respectable deal through a hostile Commons. Time for someone else to have a go.

    But when is that time? May? If the Tories could agree on a successor unanimously then there might be something in that but the very nature of the situation means that they couldn't. If there were consensus on the leader then there could be consensus on what to do about the deal, and on Brexit in general.

    I don't disagree about May's deficiency in leadership skills but even if there were someone who demonstrably had those skills and could sell a better outcome (who?), and they could take over tomorrow (could they?), there still remains the hostile Commons and intransigent EU.
    With hindsight that time was in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 election. When now is a bit trickier but we are stuck. I think Brexit is now doomed but the bitterness this is going to engender is going to be massive and May has to take much of the blame (along with the Extremely Reckless Gits, of course).
    Nevertheless, this "bitterness" of yours is an emotion. Of course, if we end up remaining, some people are going to be upset, and a few are going to be very upset. It will keep this forum occupied for months discussing who is to blame.

    However an emotional upset is small beer compared to the damage to incomes, livelihoods and real lives that most of the Brexits on offer will deliver; certainly the harder and more precipitous ones. Weighing up some people's livelihoods against other people's emotions isn't really a hard call, especially as many of the latter appear to be hard wired to be upset even if we manage to leave with a deal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,353
    FF43 said:

    Looks like there may be some movement (but read the following tweets as well):


    May/ERG would shaft the DUP with that plan.

    Having said that, it is actually one of the more sensible Brexit outcomes. Given there has to be checks somewhere in Ireland if the UK diverges from the EU, the Stranraer to Larne ferry is the obvious place to have them. It is localised to a couple of ferry ports, they have the time to do them, lorries are going through other checks anyway, it keeps the land border with 300 crossing points clean. Nortthen Ireland, which doesn't have much going for it economically, gets a free trade zone.
    But they would be different and so the DUP will never accept it. Never! Never!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,093
    Mr. Foremain, the poll was of Muslims generally in the UK, not one specific set. My precise point is that if you polled *all* Christians you'd find far more with liberal and conservative views of their holy text and far fewer with fundamentalist and literalist views.

    I also never mentioned 'fear'. Here's the original post I wrote:

    "Mr. Thompson, the clear majority of Muslims are fundamentalists. I don't say that in a pejorative way, only in reference to their approach to religious books. Biblical fundamentalists (and literalists, who are almost identical) are in a minority compared to conservatives (a term which journalists abuse and misuse all the time...) and liberals. That is not true of Islam."
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,181

    Mr. Foremain, in 2016, polling showed 12% of British Muslims tended to disagree and 35% strongly disagreed that homosexuals should be accepted as teachers (I happened to still have that poll up).

    Also, 14% tended to disagree and 38% strongly disagreed that homosexuality should be legal.

    I never said *all* Muslims believe anything. I said a clear majority had a fundamentalist view of the Quran. I'd welcome any polling links that confirm or deny that.

    I think if you polled fundamentalist Christians you would find the numbers would be higher. This does mean that both groups have a value set that is out of step with the rest of our liberal society, but it does not mean to say that we should fear them because of it.
    Would the punishment for offence be similar?
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