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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    tyson said:

    Floater said:

    Right, we are off on a 12 day cruise from Tuesday 12th; virtually no access to the internet or indeed any news beyond P&O's Daily Mail lite one pager each day.

    What chance is there that after 3 years of tedious Brexit debate, I will miss the actual denouement?

    On my cruise I paid for internet packages - you may prefer to go without, but the option is I think there.
    I know, I know.

    But: a) they cost a lot and: b) Mrs. P thinks the best thing about a cruise is 'we get way from it all'. Which means any covert interent access is frowned upon with as much severity as if I were openly browsing porn sites all day. So I'll have to abstain.

    Just wondering whether much will happen in those 12 days?
    Yes, been in exactly the same position with a mega-enthusiast cruiser. no good alternative to simply relaxing and acclimatising to bridge and dance classes, lengthy afternoon tea, and idle chatter. But I'd think she'll let you sneak off to see if we've left the EU or not!
    My conscience couldn't cope with a cruise.....human beings are trashing the planet, and cruises represent some of our worst excesses/ perhaps marginally superior (just) to trophy hunting wonderful animals
    Ok but don't tell my wife... I struggle to get her to go away on holiday at all as she hates flying. If she came to the view that cruising was desperate un-green that would be it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    IanB2 said:

    The question is what is the most legitimate way to get out of this whole mess.

    Any way that means we actually leave would be legitimate. Any of the forms of leave on offer are legitimate even if some are rather daft.
    The referendum mandate would be delivered if the UK ceased to be a member of the EU. A united Ireland would do the trick, and then Great Britain can decide what to do next.
    Not got a problem with personally.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    theProle said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This is nonsense on stilts. The EU has only got where it's got in this negotiation because our political classes didn't want to leave. A decent negotiator would have wiped the floor with them over the Irish border along the lines of "we won't follow your rules unless we happen to want to and we won't put in place any hard border with our friends in the Republic of Ireland. What are you planning on doing - build a wall and get the Mexicans to pay for it?"

    This approach would have made Northern Ireland an immense problem for the EU, and no problem for us - which we could have then used as negotiating leverage (e.g. we could have then extracted concessions for alignment on Irish agricultural stuff say in return for single market access on services).

    Similarly, when the EU started spouting off about "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" we should have told them "No deal it is" and forced them to make mini-deals sector by sector (and we can see from their no deal planning that they would have gone down this road). With a couple of years in hand to make arrangements we would have had nothing to fear from no deal.

    Even in the current mess, the situation is salvageable - "No backstop or no deal". The EU would fold - the ramifications of no deal on the RoI exceed any problems we would have by such an order of magnitude they have no choice. Instead, out MPs have essentially said "No backstop or remain" and then seem surprised that the EU is reluctant to ditch the backstop.

    Ultimately a negotiation between two sets of parties that both want the same outcome is always going to arrive at that outcome - and as usual our political classes have demonstrated their contempt for us the people by ignoring our clear instructions to them, as obviously nanny knows best.

    I'm rather looking forward to a second referendum, provided its not a stitch up between BINO and Remain - campaigning on a slogan of "Tell them again - but louder" is almost certainly going to win.
    All delusion. And the only referendum there is ever going to be is deal v Remain.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Dadge said:

    IanB2 said:

    The question is what is the most legitimate way to get out of this whole mess.


    Both the UK and EU declare they’ve learnt lessons from the whole experience, the EU offers the UK special status to stay, including an emergency brake on migration, and opt outs of any further political integration (which it commits to also being reversable) and agrees to reform its budget. It also agrees softer cultural stuff like to use less federalist language in future and talk more about preserving national identities and toning the use of its flag down a bit. And gives us blue passports anyway. Draft heads of terms for a future treaty are put with the UN or third party.

    It is then put to a referendum to ratify v. May’s Deal. Two choices.
    We could have blue passports within the EU anyway. Just saying.
    So they say, now.
    The UK govt chose burgundy passports. It's a good example of something the UK govt did that the EU has been blamed for. (A more recent example, of course, is the backstop. A very important example has been the UK govt's decision not to register EU migrants and allowing the unproductive ones to stay here, even though we have the right to send them home.) This misallocation of blame hasn't been accidental - the EU has been a handy bogeyman for UK govts ever since we joined.
    We can thank judicial activism for the Government’s inability to deport begging gangs, rather than any intent on their part:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/homeless-eu-citizens-deporting-illegal-policy-home-office-high-court-ruling-brexit-stop-a8110001.html
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    tyson said:

    Floater said:

    Right, we are off on a 12 day cruise from Tuesday 12th; virtually no access to the internet or indeed any news beyond P&O's Daily Mail lite one pager each day.

    What chance is there that after 3 years of tedious Brexit debate, I will miss the actual denouement?

    On my cruise I paid for internet packages - you may prefer to go without, but the option is I think there.
    I know, I know.

    But: a) they cost a lot and: b) Mrs. P thinks the best thing about a cruise is 'we get way from it all'. Which means any covert interent access is frowned upon with as much severity as if I were openly browsing porn sites all day. So I'll have to abstain.

    Just wondering whether much will happen in those 12 days?
    Yes, been in exactly the same position with a mega-enthusiast cruiser. no good alternative to simply relaxing and acclimatising to bridge and dance classes, lengthy afternoon tea, and idle chatter. But I'd think she'll let you sneak off to see if we've left the EU or not!
    My conscience couldn't cope with a cruise.....human beings are trashing the planet, and cruises represent some of our worst excesses/ perhaps marginally superior (just) to trophy hunting wonderful animals
    Ok but don't tell my wife... I struggle to get her to go away on holiday at all as she hates flying. If she came to the view that cruising was desperate un-green that would be it.
    Ben..thanks for responding to my incendiary post so humanely and politely.....you've just made me feel much more serene without any kind of confrontation...


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:
    All withdrawn from service...
    The sixties were fifty years ago. So your point was pointless.

    However, interestingly Tornado is still in service, although only just. Have a guess on which day it is due to go out of service. (It's a coincidence, but a poignant one).
    "The planned final flight of an RAF Tornado is 14 March 2019 during the disbandment parade of No. IX (B) Squadron and No. 31 Squadron.[260]"
    Wikipedia[1] says March 29 2019 date as the formal OSD (out of service date), but this[2] says March 31st. Could be wrong. I thought the co-incidence of Tonka retirement and Brexit date was too poignant not to mention.

    It wasn't a bad little aircraft. Never glamorous, but it was sturdy and could deliver bangy things from point A to point B with some reliability. It had a propensity to fly into sand dunes during gulf war 1, but it was good enough and in a field where quite a few things are not even that, that's a thing. It was far easier to maintain than the Lightning (the old one, not the new US one) as you could drop the engines straight out, the pilots loved it, it was a truck. The ground attack version was good, the air defence variant was (after a shit-ton of money was thrown at it) eventually good. It'll be missed.

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_United_Kingdom_military_aircraft
    [2] http://www.airheadjourno.com/the-royal-air-force-and-the-panavia-tornado-going-out-fighting/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Foxy said:

    What has that got to do with anything. Absurd remarks by MattWain

    Precisely. Well said.
    Yes, the Corbynites are sounding a bit scared of Jess. Go girl! challenge for leader...

    This is completely unrelated to Jess being my greenest Labour leader position :)
    e.g.

    https://twitter.com/AbiWilks/status/1104418225276768256
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Floater said:

    Right, we are off on a 12 day cruise from Tuesday 12th; virtually no access to the internet or indeed any news beyond P&O's Daily Mail lite one pager each day.

    What chance is there that after 3 years of tedious Brexit debate, I will miss the actual denouement?

    On my cruise I paid for internet packages - you may prefer to go without, but the option is I think there.
    I know, I know.

    But: a) they cost a lot and: b) Mrs. P thinks the best thing about a cruise is 'we get way from it all'. Which means any covert interent access is frowned upon with as much severity as if I were openly browsing porn sites all day. So I'll have to abstain.

    Just wondering whether much will happen in those 12 days?
    Yes, been in exactly the same position with a mega-enthusiast cruiser. no good alternative to simply relaxing and acclimatising to bridge and dance classes, lengthy afternoon tea, and idle chatter. But I'd think she'll let you sneak off to see if we've left the EU or not!
    My conscience couldn't cope with a cruise.....human beings are trashing the planet, and cruises represent some of our worst excesses/ perhaps marginally superior (just) to trophy hunting wonderful animals
    Ok but don't tell my wife... I struggle to get her to go away on holiday at all as she hates flying. If she came to the view that cruising was desperate un-green that would be it.
    Ben..thanks for responding to my incendiary post so humanely and politely.....you've just made me feel much more serene without any kind of confrontation...

    I'm feeling pretty mellow pal.

    My brother-in-law just died at 56 a few weeks after being diagnosed with liver cancer - he was right as rain 3 months ago. I know it's the sort of shit that happens to everyone from time to time but when it happens to someone you know and are close to it puts things into perspective.

    PS. And credit to you for your response - you're probably right about the ecological impact of cruises but we try to be as green as possible in other ways. :simile:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Foxy said:

    What has that got to do with anything. Absurd remarks by MattWain

    Precisely. Well said.
    Yes, the Corbynites are sounding a bit scared of Jess. Go girl! challenge for leader...

    This is completely unrelated to Jess being my greenest Labour leader position :)
    Less chance of becoming leader than Liz 4% Kendall
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    theProle said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century.

    This is nonsense on stilts. The EU has only got where it's got in this negotiation because our political classes didn't want to leave. A decent negotiator would have wiped the floor with them over the Irish border along the lines of "we won't follow your rules unless we happen to want to and we won't put in place any hard border with our friends in the Republic of Ireland. What are you planning on doing - build a wall and get the Mexicans to pay for it?"

    This approach would have made Northern Ireland an immense problem for the EU, and no problem for us - which we could have then used as negotiating leverage (e.g. we could have then extracted concessions for alignment on Irish agricultural stuff say in return for single market access on services).

    Similarly, when the EU started spouting off about "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" we should have told them "No deal it is" and forced them to make mini-deals sector by sector (and we can see from their no deal planning that they would have gone down this road). With a couple of years in hand to make arrangements we would have had nothing to fear from no deal.

    Even in the current mess, the situation is salvageable - "No backstop or no deal". The EU would fold - the ramifications of no deal on the RoI exceed any problems we would have by such an order of magnitude they have no choice. Instead, out MPs have essentially said "No backstop or remain" and then seem surprised that the EU is reluctant to ditch the backstop.

    Ultimately a negotiation between two sets of parties that both want the same outcome is always going to arrive at that outcome - and as usual our political classes have demonstrated their contempt for us the people by ignoring our clear instructions to them, as obviously nanny knows best.

    I'm rather looking forward to a second referendum, provided its not a stitch up between BINO and Remain - campaigning on a slogan of "Tell them again - but louder" is almost certainly going to win.
    Absolutely delusional. Threatening no deal at this late stage is essentially threatening to blow our own kneecaps off while confidently predicting that they will back down because they don’t want to be splattered with the blood. It may have been possible with some years’ prep, about five at an educated guess, but now they will just shrug.

    I have seen too many people say one side or another is “almost certainly” going to win in the last five years to lend any of it any credence.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    Actually May's Deal IS good.

    Which makes the ERG's behaviour even more ironic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    The problem is that very few people actually want that, and in any case, the EU is not a sovereign state so is not Europe's USA. Dealing with it as a non member will repeatedly confound us.

    The predominant wish of most British Eurosceptics is a Europe without supranationalism, or at least without any of its post-Maastricht development.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    What has that got to do with anything. Absurd remarks by MattWain
    Precisely. Well said.
    Yes, the Corbynites are sounding a bit scared of Jess. Go girl! challenge for leader...

    I really hope that the notion that if someone reacts strongly or attacks another that it means they must be scared of them somehow is knocked on its head. It can be true, but its often taken in itself as proof of being scared, which is nonsense.

    As for Phillips, some things she says I like, some I don't, but she has a solid approach, strong brand, and is certainly not just one of the faceless automatons that make up much of our political class, which is appreciated.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:
    All withdrawn from service...
    The sixties were fifty years ago. So your point was pointless.

    However, interestingly Tornado is still in service, although only just. Have a guess on which day it is due to go out of service. (It's a coincidence, but a poignant one).
    "The planned final flight of an RAF Tornado is 14 March 2019 during the disbandment parade of No. IX (B) Squadron and No. 31 Squadron.[260]"
    Wikipedia[1] says March 29 2019 date as the formal OSD (out of service date), but this[2] says March 31st. Could be wrong. I thought the co-incidence of Tonka retirement and Brexit date was too poignant not to mention.

    It wasn't a bad little aircraft. Never glamorous, but it was sturdy and could deliver bangy things from point A to point B with some reliability. It had a propensity to fly into sand dunes during gulf war 1, but it was good enough and in a field where quite a few things are not even that, that's a thing. It was far easier to maintain than the Lightning (the old one, not the new US one) as you could drop the engines straight out, the pilots loved it, it was a truck. The ground attack version was good, the air defence variant was (after a shit-ton of money was thrown at it) eventually good. It'll be missed.

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_United_Kingdom_military_aircraft
    [2] http://www.airheadjourno.com/the-royal-air-force-and-the-panavia-tornado-going-out-fighting/
    I quoted the Tornado article you listed above. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panavia_Tornado


  • RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    Actually May's Deal IS good.

    Which makes the ERG's behaviour even more ironic.
    Back in 2016 I said some people backed Leave because they didn't really believe in it but backed it because they thought it would be good for their political ambitions.

    I just didn't realise just how many Tory MPs that covered.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    I'm feeling pretty negative too.... but for other reasons.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    I'm feeling pretty negative too.... but for other reasons.
    You're going to win the Champions League this season.

    Plus Manchester United are going to make Liverpool fan Ole their manager and Madrid are going for Jose Mourinho so Poch is staying.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Dadge said:

    IanB2 said:

    The question is what is the most legitimate way to get out of this whole mess.


    Both the UK and EU declare they’ve learnt lessons from the whole experience, the EU offers the UK special status to stay, including an emergency brake on migration, and opt outs of any further political integration (which it commits to also being reversable) and agrees to reform its budget. It also agrees softer cultural stuff like to use less federalist language in future and talk more about preserving national identities and toning the use of its flag down a bit. And gives us blue passports anyway. Draft heads of terms for a future treaty are put with the UN or third party.

    It is then put to a referendum to ratify v. May’s Deal. Two choices.
    We could have blue passports within the EU anyway. Just saying.
    So they say, now.
    The UK govt chose burgundy passports. It's a good example of something the UK govt did that the EU has been blamed for. (A more recent example, of course, is the backstop. A very important example has been the UK govt's decision not to register EU migrants and allowing the unproductive ones to stay here, even though we have the right to send them home.) This misallocation of blame hasn't been accidental - the EU has been a handy bogeyman for UK govts ever since we joined.
    I don't doubt the UK has hid behind the EU for some decisions it wanted to take that it knew would be unpopular.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    The problem is that very few people actually want that, and in any case, the EU is not a sovereign state so is not Europe's USA. Dealing with it as a non member will repeatedly confound us.

    The predominant wish of most British Eurosceptics is a Europe without supranationalism, or at least without any of its post-Maastricht development.
    You have no idea what people who voted Leave think or want, and you never will.

  • RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    I'm feeling pretty negative too.... but for other reasons.
    You're going to win the Champions League this season.

    Plus Manchester United are going to make Liverpool fan Ole their manager and Madrid are going for Jose Mourinho so Poch is staying.
    Thanks for that.... :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    I've heard too many bad stories about cruises to want to go on one.

    Where do you go, and what do you book, if you want to avoid obese Britons and Germans with no table manners, dignity or dress sense?

    A friend of mine (~30 yo), her hubbie, and their 3-yo son go on a cruise once a year, as she cannot abide flying. I can't remember which company they go with, but she absolutely loves it - and so does their son.

    Perhaps it depends on the company you go with (and hence the ship)?

    BTW, hope your wife and daughter are well, and that you're getting some sleep!
    Thanks! Intermittently.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    I'm feeling pretty negative too.... but for other reasons.
    You're going to win the Champions League this season.

    Plus Manchester United are going to make Liverpool fan Ole their manager and Madrid are going for Jose Mourinho so Poch is staying.
    Thanks for that.... :)
    I've bet on it as well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    The question is what is the most legitimate way to get out of this whole mess.


    Both the UK and EU declare they’ve learnt lessons from the whole experience, the EU offers the UK special status to stay, including an emergency brake on migration, and opt outs of any further political integration (which it commits to also being reversable) and agrees to reform its budget. It also agrees softer cultural stuff like to use less federalist language in future and talk more about preserving national identities and toning the use of its flag down a bit. And gives us blue passports anyway. Draft heads of terms for a future treaty are put with the UN or third party.

    It is then put to a referendum to ratify v. May’s Deal. Two choices.
    We could have blue passports within the EU anyway. Just saying.
    So they say, now.
    Croatia have blue passports.
    Yes, I know. But can you change back once you've switched?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    IanB2 said:

    The question is what is the most legitimate way to get out of this whole mess.

    Both the UK and EU declare they’ve learnt lessons from the whole experience, the EU offers the UK special status to stay, including an emergency brake on migration, and opt outs of any further political integration (which it commits to also being reversable) and agrees to reform its budget. It also agrees softer cultural stuff like to use less federalist language in future and talk more about preserving national identities and toning the use of its flag down a bit. And gives us blue passports anyway. Draft heads of terms for a future treaty are put with the UN or third party.

    It is then put to a referendum to ratify v. May’s Deal. Two choices.
    Proving that the UK has learnt nothing...
    You're a fundamentalist zealot, not a politician.
    I should have given a longer response but your solution listed a large number of 'concessions' from the EU, but nothing about what the UK will do to make its membership work better. What does "toning down the use of its flag" mean? You almost never see it in this country. It's not displayed on public buildings in the same way it is in most other member states.
    It means ceasing placing its flag on numberplates, passports, driving licences, funding plaques, and twinnings that contribute to a creeping sense of federalisation in this country.

    Symbols matter. And it costs the EU nothing, apart from a bit of pride.

    The concessions, such as they are, are simply recognising the UK is different, as it always has been. I've laid out two options there: one a Remain I think many Leavers could live with, and the other a Leave many Remainers could live with.

    Anything else is politically unsustainable.
    If all it costs is "a bit of pride", why not suck up the symbols? If we're going to be in the EU, it doesn't help to pretend we're not really part of it. Surely that's one of the lessons the UK should learn from this whole episode.
    Tone deaf.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Foxy said:

    What has that got to do with anything. Absurd remarks by MattWain

    Precisely. Well said.
    Yes, the Corbynites are sounding a bit scared of Jess. Go girl! challenge for leader...

    This is completely unrelated to Jess being my greenest Labour leader position :)
    Less chance of becoming leader than Liz 4% Kendall
    Very true - she is far too sensible to appeal to the cultists
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    The predominant wish of most British Eurosceptics is a Europe without supranationalism, or at least without any of its post-Maastricht development.
    Got it in one.
  • I've heard too many bad stories about cruises to want to go on one.

    Where do you go, and what do you book, if you want to avoid obese Britons and Germans with no table manners, dignity or dress sense?

    We have been on 10 cruises worldwide and have never come across obese Brits and virtually no Germans. Our European and Scandanavian cruises have had many US and Canadians on board as well as Aussies and well behaved Brits. Our cruises out of Canada and to the Antartic had much the same compliment and we have not seen one example of poor behaviour on board all these ships
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Y
    Endillion said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Dixie

    The Six Nations should have incorporated relegation and promotions several seasons ago. Georgia are far superior to Italy and have won the European Rugby Championship in seven out of the last eight seasons. They have nowhere to go. How are they supposed to develop?

    The blazers insist on keeping the 6N a closed shop presumably because the fans enjoy an annual trip to Rome.

    The set up is anti competitive - the antithesis of sport - it is embarrassing.

    There's a lot of truth there but it wasn't too long ago that Scotland finished last and France have done so once as well.

    Having Italy relegated might be acceptable the blazers but they wouldn't want to risk that happening to any of the other nations.
    If they finish last, let them be relegated. If they are good enough they will be immediately promoted the following season.
    Promoted from what, exactly?
    The European Rugby Championship
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    Actually May's Deal IS good.

    Which makes the ERG's behaviour even more ironic.
    Back in 2016 I said some people backed Leave because they didn't really believe in it but backed it because they thought it would be good for their political ambitions.

    I just didn't realise just how many Tory MPs that covered.
    Rather ironically / annoyingly there's a good chance the ERG will end up controlling the Conservative party if Brexit doesn't happen.

    What do you make of Andrea Jenkyns attitude ?

    I don't know if she's a death cult fanatic or the most idiotic of useful idiots.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    Actually May's Deal IS good.

    Which makes the ERG's behaviour even more ironic.
    Typo in your post there.

    The "i" should be "mo".
  • Foxy said:

    I've heard too many bad stories about cruises to want to go on one.

    Where do you go, and what do you book, if you want to avoid obese Britons and Germans with no table manners, dignity or dress sense?

    A friend of mine (~30 yo), her hubbie, and their 3-yo son go on a cruise once a year, as she cannot abide flying. I can't remember which company they go with, but she absolutely loves it - and so does their son.

    Perhaps it depends on the company you go with (and hence the ship)?

    BTW, hope your wife and daughter are well, and that you're getting some sleep!
    I cruised the Nile 20 years ago, a supurb trip. I expected the history and archeology to be amazing, and they were, but Egypt is a surprisingly beautiful country scenically, and the country life a daily panorama. Also much safer and less hassle than the roads.

    My parents have never fancied blue water cruising, but have loved river cruising, and have covered most of the rivers in Europe. Found the Rhone a bit dull but enjoyed the others as far as the Volga.
    Yes, my wife and two of our children enjoyed a Nile cruise about the same time.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    Less of your negativity, we hold all the cards.
    Actually May's Deal IS good.

    Which makes the ERG's behaviour even more ironic.
    Back in 2016 I said some people backed Leave because they didn't really believe in it but backed it because they thought it would be good for their political ambitions.

    I just didn't realise just how many Tory MPs that covered.
    Rather ironically / annoyingly there's a good chance the ERG will end up controlling the Conservative party if Brexit doesn't happen.

    What do you make of Andrea Jenkyns attitude ?

    I don't know if she's a death cult fanatic or the most idiotic of useful idiots.
    Andrea's a very good constituency MP, which is one reason why she increased her majority at the last election against a popular local Labour candidate.

  • Rather ironically / annoyingly there's a good chance the ERG will end up controlling the Conservative party if Brexit doesn't happen.

    What do you make of Andrea Jenkyns attitude ?

    I don't know if she's a death cult fanatic or the most idiotic of useful idiots.

    Death cult fanatic. David Herdson will attest in 2015 that she was a genuine Cameroon, if slightly shy.

    I don't know why the EU turns so many normal people into idiots.

    Is why I'm in favour of No Deal (as opposed to revocation), it'll destroy the credibility of so many Leavers.

    All those like Jenkyns who said we will prosper under WTO/No Deal will lose all credibility.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    The predominant wish of most British Eurosceptics is a Europe without supranationalism, or at least without any of its post-Maastricht development.

    Got it in one.
    RoyalBlue said:

    The problem is that very few people actually want that, and in any case, the EU is not a sovereign state so is not Europe's USA. Dealing with it as a non member will repeatedly confound us.

    The predominant wish of most British Eurosceptics is a Europe without supranationalism, or at least without any of its post-Maastricht development.

    You have no idea what people who voted Leave think or want, and you never will.
    Hmm...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    The UK has got a bit to do to to match Canada on immigrants as a percentage of total population (non EU of course), but we're definitely catching up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    I've heard too many bad stories about cruises to want to go on one.

    Where do you go, and what do you book, if you want to avoid obese Britons and Germans with no table manners, dignity or dress sense?

    A friend of mine (~30 yo), her hubbie, and their 3-yo son go on a cruise once a year, as she cannot abide flying. I can't remember which company they go with, but she absolutely loves it - and so does their son.

    Perhaps it depends on the company you go with (and hence the ship)?

    BTW, hope your wife and daughter are well, and that you're getting some sleep!
    I cruised the Nile 20 years ago, a supurb trip. I expected the history and archeology to be amazing, and they were, but Egypt is a surprisingly beautiful country scenically, and the country life a daily panorama. Also much safer and less hassle than the roads.

    My parents have never fancied blue water cruising, but have loved river cruising, and have covered most of the rivers in Europe. Found the Rhone a bit dull but enjoyed the others as far as the Volga.
    Yes, my wife and two of our children enjoyed a Nile cruise about the same time.
    Any particular lines that you would recommend?

    Holidaying is always a matter of personal taste, but some of the bigger cruise ships that I see sailing past the Isle of Wight look pretty hideous.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    IanB2 said:

    The question is what is the most legitimate way to get out of this whole mess.

    Both the UK and EU declare they’ve learnt lessons from the whole experience, the EU offers the UK special status to stay, including an emergency brake on migration, and opt outs of any further political integration (which it commits to also being reversable) and agrees to reform its budget. It also agrees softer cultural stuff like to use less federalist language in future and talk more about preserving national identities and toning the use of its flag down a bit. And gives us blue passports anyway. Draft heads of terms for a future treaty are put with the UN or third party.

    It is then put to a referendum to ratify v. May’s Deal. Two choices.
    Proving that the UK has learnt nothing...
    You're a fundamentalist zealot, not a politician.
    I should have given a longer response but your solution listed a large number of 'concessions' from the EU, but nothing about what the UK will do to make its membership work better. What does "toning down the use of its flag" mean? You almost never see it in this country. It's not displayed on public buildings in the same way it is in most other member states.
    It means ceasing placing its flag on numberplates, passports, driving licences, funding plaques, and twinnings that contribute to a creeping sense of federalisation in this country.

    Symbols matter. And it costs the EU nothing, apart from a bit of pride.

    The concessions, such as they are, are simply recognising the UK is different, as it always has been. I've laid out two options there: one a Remain I think many Leavers could live with, and the other a Leave many Remainers could live with.

    Anything else is politically unsustainable.
    If all it costs is "a bit of pride", why not suck up the symbols? If we're going to be in the EU, it doesn't help to pretend we're not really part of it. Surely that's one of the lessons the UK should learn from this whole episode.
    Tone deaf.
    I’m afraid I must agree with William Glenn here. It is not reasonable to ask the EU to alter its founding principles to accommodate a single member state that joined of its own free will. It’s for us to decide if those principles are so undesirable that we must leave, and we have done so.

    I think this kind of exceptionalist thinking is much more common amongst Tories, whether Remain or Leave, than the Leave vote in general.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    The UK has got a bit to do to to match Canada on immigrants as a percentage of total population (non EU of course), but we're definitely catching up.
    If only Scotland were more appealing, we’d get there!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Very quiet from the cult this evening on the Murray item.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited March 2019
    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408


    Rather ironically / annoyingly there's a good chance the ERG will end up controlling the Conservative party if Brexit doesn't happen.

    What do you make of Andrea Jenkyns attitude ?

    I don't know if she's a death cult fanatic or the most idiotic of useful idiots.

    Is why I'm in favour of No Deal (as opposed to revocation), it'll destroy the credibility of so many Leavers.
    Then you will be in a rare position - a remainer who will be annoyed that we will probably be remaining.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    The UK has got a bit to do to to match Canada on immigrants as a percentage of total population (non EU of course), but we're definitely catching up.
    If only Scotland were more appealing, we’d get there!
    Yep, long term residents who contribute substantially to their communities getting booted out by Westminster diktat must be pretty unappealing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I've heard too many bad stories about cruises to want to go on one.

    Where do you go, and what do you book, if you want to avoid obese Britons and Germans with no table manners, dignity or dress sense?

    A friend of mine (~30 yo), her hubbie, and their 3-yo son go on a cruise once a year, as she cannot abide flying. I can't remember which company they go with, but she absolutely loves it - and so does their son.

    Perhaps it depends on the company you go with (and hence the ship)?

    BTW, hope your wife and daughter are well, and that you're getting some sleep!
    I cruised the Nile 20 years ago, a supurb trip. I expected the history and archeology to be amazing, and they were, but Egypt is a surprisingly beautiful country scenically, and the country life a daily panorama. Also much safer and less hassle than the roads.

    My parents have never fancied blue water cruising, but have loved river cruising, and have covered most of the rivers in Europe. Found the Rhone a bit dull but enjoyed the others as far as the Volga.
    Yes, my wife and two of our children enjoyed a Nile cruise about the same time.
    Any particular lines that you would recommend?

    Holidaying is always a matter of personal taste, but some of the bigger cruise ships that I see sailing past the Isle of Wight look pretty hideous.
    The experience is wonderful - you pay a lot to get indulged and pampered and if you're sensible you turn the world off for a couple of weeks and enjoy good food, sunshine and just relax. Royal Carribean and Celebrity are pretty good. You don't see the outside of the boat when on board :)
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    If this is what transpires, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that the Conservatives will win the next election. The party will spend the next 3 years at war with itself.

    Thanks to the stupidity of the ERGers, it now feels distinctly possible. I still think there’s a chance the deal gets through in June, after a 3 month extension.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    Then you will be in a rare position - a remainer who will be annoyed that we will probably be remaining.

    That view has been expressed many times on here, notably by Antifrank

    The only way to burn out the fever of Brexit is to experience the full fat version. In all other scenarios the headbangers will continue their crusade.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I've heard too many bad stories about cruises to want to go on one.

    Where do you go, and what do you book, if you want to avoid obese Britons and Germans with no table manners, dignity or dress sense?

    A friend of mine (~30 yo), her hubbie, and their 3-yo son go on a cruise once a year, as she cannot abide flying. I can't remember which company they go with, but she absolutely loves it - and so does their son.

    Perhaps it depends on the company you go with (and hence the ship)?

    BTW, hope your wife and daughter are well, and that you're getting some sleep!
    I cruised the Nile 20 years ago, a supurb trip. I expected the history and archeology to be amazing, and they were, but Egypt is a surprisingly beautiful country scenically, and the country life a daily panorama. Also much safer and less hassle than the roads.

    My parents have never fancied blue water cruising, but have loved river cruising, and have covered most of the rivers in Europe. Found the Rhone a bit dull but enjoyed the others as far as the Volga.
    Yes, my wife and two of our children enjoyed a Nile cruise about the same time.
    Any particular lines that you would recommend?

    Holidaying is always a matter of personal taste, but some of the bigger cruise ships that I see sailing past the Isle of Wight look pretty hideous.
    We have done most of our cruises with Princess sailing ex Southampton, Rome, and Vancouver. Our early cruising was with Fred Olsen on smaller ships with formal dining but the larger Princess ships offer many more dining options, and while they carry 3000 + passengers + 2000 crewe, you never seem to meet the same fellow passengers

    Furthermore they all have stablisers and seem to endure less movement than the smaller ships, not that it bothers us having been in hurricane seas in the mid atlantic and of course in antartica

    The good thing about a Southampton cruise is you have no baggage limits and while there is security it is nothing as hideous as flying
  • Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Are there any markets up on this week's vote?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RoyalBlue said:

    If this is what transpires, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that the Conservatives will win the next election. The party will spend the next 3 years at war with itself.

    Thanks to the stupidity of the ERGers, it now feels distinctly possible. I still think there’s a chance the deal gets through in June, after a 3 month extension.
    If the deadline is moved, the dynamic changes in multiple ways. The deal can lose as well as gain supporters. Other ways of breaking the deadlock look more attractive to some.
  • kle4 said:


    Rather ironically / annoyingly there's a good chance the ERG will end up controlling the Conservative party if Brexit doesn't happen.

    What do you make of Andrea Jenkyns attitude ?

    I don't know if she's a death cult fanatic or the most idiotic of useful idiots.

    Is why I'm in favour of No Deal (as opposed to revocation), it'll destroy the credibility of so many Leavers.
    Then you will be in a rare position - a remainer who will be annoyed that we will probably be remaining.
    I'm a democrat as well.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Are there any markets up on this week's vote?
    There is a market on the vote on Betfair but I haven’t seen any others yet.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Scott_P said:
    Those polling questions are so loaded in favour of May's deal.
  • Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Are there any markets up on this week's vote?
    There is a market on the vote on Betfair but I haven’t seen any others yet.
    Thanks, hopefully SPIN will put up a market.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    I'm staying green on both sides in a world where our politicians and our government seem to be operating in a way that defies rational analysis, at least by this punter of very little brain. The Independent takes Theresa May at her word and treats various collectives as blocs; it could well be right, or at least right for the wrong reasons.
  • Who is Marcus Antonius?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    It’s despicable if some Tories support the deal only on the condition of May’s resignation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    kle4 said:


    Rather ironically / annoyingly there's a good chance the ERG will end up controlling the Conservative party if Brexit doesn't happen.

    What do you make of Andrea Jenkyns attitude ?

    I don't know if she's a death cult fanatic or the most idiotic of useful idiots.

    Is why I'm in favour of No Deal (as opposed to revocation), it'll destroy the credibility of so many Leavers.
    Then you will be in a rare position - a remainer who will be annoyed that we will probably be remaining.
    I am the remainer sans peur et sans reproche, but I think we should sign the Deal and leave. If the strategic goal is to bring the country together and start working on the future, then it is the only option I am aware of. If we just want to spend the next millennia screaming at each other and "failing and blaming", then fine, remain or no-deal. But frankly that's just fucking around at this point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Who is Marcus Antonius?

    "I made her – and I can break her."

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    dixiedean said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
    DUP on board is a precondition of ERG being squeezed to the hard core.

    Cannot see those 30 odd Labour votes to be honest.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    One thing we ought to have learned from MV One, is that, whilst our politicians are incompetent, our political journalists are little better. None of them saw a 230 vote defeat coming.
    And that was, literally, their full time job. How many MPs have publicly stated they will change their vote? Not many.
    Until many, more do, we can take professional hacks' opinions with a spoonful of salt.
    They seem consumed by wishful thinking as much as anyone else.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Scott_P said:
    Right side story looks interesting. Seumas Milne apparently intervening in AS investigations.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    Might lose by more than 230? I don’t see that at all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.
  • Very quiet from the cult this evening on the Murray item.

    Too busy mis-representing things on twitter.... plus ca change...

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1104504000395780099
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    dixiedean said:

    One thing we ought to have learned from MV One, is that, whilst our politicians are incompetent, our political journalists are little better. None of them saw a 230 vote defeat coming.
    And that was, literally, their full time job. How many MPs have publicly stated they will change their vote? Not many.
    Until many, more do, we can take professional hacks' opinions with a spoonful of salt.
    They seem consumed by wishful thinking as much as anyone else.

    I follow politics in my spare time, and by the simple process of counting I got very close to the ultimate outcome. MPs have not generally been shy about their position on the meaningful vote. If they weren’t expecting a defeat of over 200 that was rank incompetence.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Scott_P said:
    Right side story looks interesting. Seumas Milne apparently intervening in AS investigations.
    I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked...
  • Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    I’m planning on looking at this properly tomorrow but off the top of my head, Robert Halfon and Jim Fitzpatrick.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
    Boris and Raab can't both enter - they'll split the ERG vote and neither will make the final two.

    On reflection, they should both enter.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    I’m planning on looking at this properly tomorrow but off the top of my head, Robert Halfon and Jim Fitzpatrick.
    Brady?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
    Possibly not but I do expect that there will be at least one woman in the mix.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
    Cox?
  • Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
    Kenneth Clarke.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:
    All withdrawn from service...
    The sixties were fifty years ago. So your point was pointless.

    However, interestingly Tornado is still in service, although only just. Have a guess on which day it is due to go out of service. (It's a coincidence, but a poignant one).
    "The planned final flight of an RAF Tornado is 14 March 2019 during the disbandment parade of No. IX (B) Squadron and No. 31 Squadron.[260]"
    Wikipedia[1] says March 29 2019 date as the formal OSD (out of service date), but this[2] says March 31st. Could be wrong. I thought the co-incidence of Tonka retirement and Brexit date was too poignant not to mention.

    It wasn't a bad little aircraft. Never glamorous, but it was sturdy and could deliver bangy things from point A to point B with some reliability. It had a propensity to fly into sand dunes during gulf war 1, but it was good enough and in a field where quite a few things are not even that, that's a thing. It was far easier to maintain than the Lightning (the old one, not the new US one) as you could drop the engines straight out, the pilots loved it, it was a truck. The ground attack version was good, the air defence variant was (after a shit-ton of money was thrown at it) eventually good. It'll be missed.

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_United_Kingdom_military_aircraft
    [2] http://www.airheadjourno.com/the-royal-air-force-and-the-panavia-tornado-going-out-fighting/
    An ex-USAF ex-colleague reckoned the sand dune collisions happened because the RAF was still using WW2 tactics of flying under German radar across flat Holland to drop dumb bombs on cows within 10 or 20 miles of their intended target. I do not know if that is fair but certainly he was not greatly impressed by our military support.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1104506242683363328

    A lot of public are about to be upset then.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Scott_P said:
    Right side story looks interesting. Seumas Milne apparently intervening in AS investigations.
    I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked...
    Me too. I'm quite sure JC was unaware.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Scott_P said:
    Right side story looks interesting. Seumas Milne apparently intervening in AS investigations.
    I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked...
    Me too. I'm quite sure JC was unaware.
    "Present, but not involved."

    These words will be on his gravestone.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
  • The cabinet minister in charge of Brexit has held detailed talks with Labour MPs who are championing plans for a second referendum – amid signs of mounting desperation inside Theresa May’s government about what to do if the prime minister’s deal suffers another crushing defeat on Tuesday.

    Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, called the meeting with Labour’s Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson in Downing Street last Thursday as negotiations with Brussels to resolve the deadlock over the Northern Ireland backstop floundered and ministers privately began to concede that May’s plan could be doomed.

    Kyle told the Observer yesterday that Barclay had “remained loyal to government policy”, which is to oppose any second referendum. But the MP for Hove said Barclay talked to him and Wilson for at least 45 minutes and was “fully engaged”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/brexit-secretary-met-pro-referendum-labour-peter-kyle-phil-wilson
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    I’m planning on looking at this properly tomorrow but off the top of my head, Robert Halfon and Jim Fitzpatrick.
    Only 226 behind then. At this rate MV59 will pass some time in 2033.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
    Kenneth Clarke.
    Dominic Grieve :)
  • Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
    Kenneth Clarke.
    Clarke and Cox both labour under the great weakness that I haven't got bets on them unlike Crouch and her outlandish odds which would see me rich enough to buy cheese in the cheese room at White Hart Lane 2.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    If the deal goes down on Tuesday but there's no follow-up No Deal vote on Wednesday that'll be a right shit-show.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232

    Who is Marcus Antonius?

    "I made her – and I can break her."

    image
    Why does he look like he's four foot tall in that photograph?
This discussion has been closed.