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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Another aside (I hope you don't mind the distraction) but the XCOM 2 DLC is heavily discounted. In a very rare move, I actually bought it. Haven't started War of the Chosen just yet, but playing through the ordinary game with the first few pieces of DLC.

    It's going rather well, so far.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,481
    _Anazina_ said:

    Anorak said:

    Ignore Brexit. Romney is an odd chap. Weirdness starts about 25 secs in.
    https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1105464669353971712

    That I can forgive.

    What I can never forgive is portrait videography – a crime against humanity.
    https://www.xkcd.com/2119/
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    That moment when Geoffrey Codpiece boomed out that his legal advice hadn't changed, but despite this his political advice was to ignore the AG and vote for it anyway.

    To misquote Pete and Dud: Laugh? I nearly Shat
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. kle4, it's important (for reasons for gambling) that if we have another referendum it happens this year.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    So now – literally just now – been told by a supplier in Latvia that he can't ship a major order, because of Brexit (it won't get here before 29 March). So, our business now being directly affected by this fucking joke of a policy –the most stupid idea ever to emerge in Britain in the post-war period.

    Still, blue passports or something. Yippee.

    https://twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1105393787243778053?s=19

    ;)
    Nope. That's absolutely true. It doesn't surprise me that you don't take it seriously.
    So true there's no real stories of this happening on the news or with media like Channel 4 or the Grauniad that would breathlessly report it. Just from diehard anonymous Remainers posting anonymous and unsubstantiated comments.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,100
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Has any MP other than Geoffrey Cox come out of the Brexit process with their reputation enhanced?

    Rory Stewart.

    Arguably Gove, Mordaunt and Leadsom, depending on where you draw the baseline.

    And Starmer.
    This will be the same Starmer locked in a cupboard under the stairs by Corbyn?
    Be honest; had you even heard of him before he got appointed Shadow Brexit Sec?
    Er, yes I had heard of the then DPP and head of the CPS....
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    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to say what would happen at another GE as regards Corbyn.

    Corbyn is so toxic he would lose badly, even against this shower of Tory cretins. For a start, Labour would likely lose every remaining seat in Scotland.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    From the Guardian live blog:

    The Spectator has got a list of 10 Tory MPs who were rebels in January but who have now changed their minds. Their names are: Ben Bradley, Nigel Evans, Robert Halfon, Greg Hands, John Lamont, Johnny Mercer, Mike Penning, Mark Pritchard, Derek Thomas, Martin Vickers.

    [Sir Robert] Syms takes the total to 11.

    Colleagues tell me Sir Graham Brady is also switching, meaning that we have got the names of 12 Tories who voted against in January who are voting for tonight.

    The Labour MPs Caroline Flint and Jim Fitzpatrick are also expected to vote for the deal tonight, having voted against it in January.

    That gives May 14 switchers - which reduces the size of the majority against her by 28.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    From the Guardian live blog:

    The Spectator has got a list of 10 Tory MPs who were rebels in January but who have now changed their minds. Their names are: Ben Bradley, Nigel Evans, Robert Halfon, Greg Hands, John Lamont, Johnny Mercer, Mike Penning, Mark Pritchard, Derek Thomas, Martin Vickers.

    [Sir Robert] Syms takes the total to 11.

    Colleagues tell me Sir Graham Brady is also switching, meaning that we have got the names of 12 Tories who voted against in January who are voting for tonight.

    The Labour MPs Caroline Flint and Jim Fitzpatrick are also expected to vote for the deal tonight, having voted against it in January.

    That gives May 14 switchers - which reduces the size of the majority against her by 28.

    Still 200+ :p
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    _Anazina_ said:

    Anorak said:

    Ignore Brexit. Romney is an odd chap. Weirdness starts about 25 secs in.
    https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1105464669353971712

    That I can forgive.

    What I can never forgive is portrait videography – a crime against humanity.
    Unless you're specifically making a Tic-Toc you need to always shoot landscape :E
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,202
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    We will certainly need a second referendum so they can pretend to be democratic etc but surely we all know better now. I am not minded to vote for any of them again. What is the point?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,481
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    And how is that to be delivered ?

    That is a process unlikely to be facilitated by the current PM, and there is very, very little time indeed in which to make alternative arrangements.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to say what would happen at another GE as regards Corbyn.

    Corbyn is so toxic he would lose badly, even against this shower of Tory cretins. For a start, Labour would likely lose every remaining seat in Scotland.
    Not Edinburgh South.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Other MPs whose reputation has been enhanced by Brexit: Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, Phil Hammond, Richard Harrington, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Oliver Letwin.

    I appreciate that this list might not be popular amongst obsessively partisan Leavers, but by any objective standard this group has fought well and effectively for their principled views on what is best for the country.

    I agree on Hammond.

    Before Brexit, my opinion of him was that chiefly he was the worst Transport Secretary in memory.

    I no longer hold that opinion.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. L, as a potentially weary voter, I'd say incompetence is better than incompetence plus malevolence. As long as Corbyn or his ilk leads Labour, I'd feel bound to vote Conservative.

    If a Cooper-type were leading Labour, I'd be more apathetic.
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    Anorak said:
    ^ this is why there really is no way out. They wanted to leave the EU. When presented with a deal to leave the EU their reason for rejecting it is that we don't leave the EU. And it's not just Cash - there are a significant number of angry people like him in every town convinced that May's deal has to fall or we don't leave the EU.

    I have been told off in the past for deploying mental health slights against such people, but they truly are all mental
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    As things stand we have 216 Ayes (assuming no-one switches in the opposite direction). I expect the final figure will be between 220 and 240.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    I don't see how a referendum solves anything. If the country is divided over EU membership neither hard Brexit (probably elminated later this week) or Remain (what the People's Vote mob want) is going to be acceptable to around ~40% of the population. We need something that can command the grudging support of say 75% of people, and that surely means a looser relationship with the EU. As yet very few people are seriously looking at that, certainly not Labour with their cake and eat it fantasy, or most Tories.

    EFTA, or something very similar, has always looked like a better fit for the UK to me than anything else. God knows how we get to there.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Do we think whenever he says “from a senior Tory” or “from a tip-top source” or similar it just means “from the head of Robert Peston”?
    Robert Peston has zero contacts in the Conservative party. Paul Brand and Chris Ship (now royal correspondent) are the journos to take notice of.
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    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    So now – literally just now – been told by a supplier in Latvia that he can't ship a major order, because of Brexit (it won't get here before 29 March). So, our business now being directly affected by this fucking joke of a policy –the most stupid idea ever to emerge in Britain in the post-war period.

    Still, blue passports or something. Yippee.

    https://twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1105393787243778053?s=19

    ;)
    Nope. That's absolutely true. It doesn't surprise me that you don't take it seriously.
    So true there's no real stories of this happening on the news or with media like Channel 4 or the Grauniad that would breathlessly report it. Just from diehard anonymous Remainers posting anonymous and unsubstantiated comments.
    I’m a Leaver but it is pretty obvious businesses large and small are now feeling negative effects of Brexit uncertainty. It would be amazing if they weren’t. We literally don’t know on what terms we will be trading with the EU, and most of the world, in 17 days, nor do we know the status of millions of UK and EU citizens in the UK and on the continent.

    Don’t be daft. Of course companies and people are suffering.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I have a sneaking suspicion that 90% of vociferous leavers (you know "WTO will be fine" and "traitor!!") have no real idea what's in the withdrawal agreement they hate so much.

    Just a feeling, mind.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    So now – literally just now – been told by a supplier in Latvia that he can't ship a major order, because of Brexit (it won't get here before 29 March). So, our business now being directly affected by this fucking joke of a policy –the most stupid idea ever to emerge in Britain in the post-war period.

    Still, blue passports or something. Yippee.

    https://twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1105393787243778053?s=19

    ;)
    Nope. That's absolutely true. It doesn't surprise me that you don't take it seriously.
    So true there's no real stories of this happening on the news or with media like Channel 4 or the Grauniad that would breathlessly report it. Just from diehard anonymous Remainers posting anonymous and unsubstantiated comments.
    I’m a Leaver but it is pretty obvious businesses large and small are now feeling negative effects of Brexit uncertainty. It would be amazing if they weren’t. We literally don’t know on what terms we will be trading with the EU, and most of the world, in 17 days, nor do we know the status of millions of UK and EU citizens in the UK and on the continent.

    Don’t be daft. Of course companies and people are suffering.
    Companies putting off investment decisions absolutely is happening and has been breathlessly reported.

    Companies being unable to import? No.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,441
    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to say what would happen at another GE as regards Corbyn.

    It’s to be hoped that people will see through the Magic Grandpa routine this time, though I have my doubts...

    I have absolutely zero clue who I would vote for in a GE now. Labour are terrifying, Tories are a mess, Lib Dems are invisible, TIGS are too new, UKIP are too extreme .. what a choice!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,803

    From the Guardian live blog:

    The Spectator has got a list of 10 Tory MPs who were rebels in January but who have now changed their minds. Their names are: Ben Bradley, Nigel Evans, Robert Halfon, Greg Hands, John Lamont, Johnny Mercer, Mike Penning, Mark Pritchard, Derek Thomas, Martin Vickers.

    [Sir Robert] Syms takes the total to 11.

    Colleagues tell me Sir Graham Brady is also switching, meaning that we have got the names of 12 Tories who voted against in January who are voting for tonight.

    The Labour MPs Caroline Flint and Jim Fitzpatrick are also expected to vote for the deal tonight, having voted against it in January.

    That gives May 14 switchers - which reduces the size of the majority against her by 28.

    James Gray takes it up to 15.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Anorak said:

    Ignore Brexit. Romney is an odd chap. Weirdness starts about 25 secs in.
    https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1105464669353971712

    It's so as not to get saliva on the cake.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    I'd say a GE is more likely than a second ref. It is the only escape route that doesn't blow the Tory party apart.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jacob Rees-Mogg undecided.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Has any MP other than Geoffrey Cox come out of the Brexit process with their reputation enhanced?

    Rory Stewart.

    Arguably Gove, Mordaunt and Leadsom, depending on where you draw the baseline.

    And Starmer.
    This will be the same Starmer locked in a cupboard under the stairs by Corbyn?
    Be honest; had you even heard of him before he got appointed Shadow Brexit Sec?
    Er, yes I had heard of the then DPP and head of the CPS....
    Yeah, fair enough.

    I hadn't. Even if I had, I might not have realised he was now an MP.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kinabalu said:

    Anorak said:

    Ignore Brexit. Romney is an odd chap. Weirdness starts about 25 secs in.

    It's so as not to get saliva on the cake.
    Christ, there's more than one of you?!?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,481
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Other MPs whose reputation has been enhanced by Brexit: Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, Phil Hammond, Richard Harrington, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Oliver Letwin.

    I appreciate that this list might not be popular amongst obsessively partisan Leavers, but by any objective standard this group has fought well and effectively for their principled views on what is best for the country.

    Grieve has enhanced his reputation for cleverness, while also demonstrating that he is completely dishonourable.
    He's actually provided the way out of a catastrophic, disorderly no-deal crash out. Nothing dishonourable about that, given that the ERG and friends have dishonourably torpedoed an orderly Brexit.
    No he didn't. He is one of the reasons the Deal has failed.
    The deal failed because the DUP, ERG and Tory Leaver backbenchers formed an unholy alliance with a cynical Labour Party to trash it. It's a bit rich blaming Dominic Grieve for that.
    He's certainly not mostly to blame for things. But he's a fanatic who gets away with it by being clever and because people want to remain, and that annoys me because he's just as unbending and high risk in his approach as Rees Mogg. He shouldn't get away with pretending he's not just as willing to day ir do anything to get what he wants and damn everyone else, as the leaver ultras. I'd back remain now and I think Grieve is a hypocrit and a disgrace.
    I don't think that entirely fair.
    He has at least engineered ways in which parliament can actually express an opinion - as opposed to the ERG, who seem to regonise no opinion but theirs (and perhaps that of the DUP), and have sought to achieve No Deal Brexit via filibuster.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2019

    As things stand we have 216 Ayes (assuming no-one switches in the opposite direction). I expect the final figure will be between 220 and 240.

    I'd guess the number of total switchers will be about double those who publicly announce it - not popular in some constituencies. So at current rate somewhere in the 240s maybe.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Corbyn on form here. Amiable, focused, forensic.

    He's calm, he's zen, he's off to number 10.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,202

    Mr. L, as a potentially weary voter, I'd say incompetence is better than incompetence plus malevolence. As long as Corbyn or his ilk leads Labour, I'd feel bound to vote Conservative.

    If a Cooper-type were leading Labour, I'd be more apathetic.

    Nope. I'm done. Voting for these fools only feeds their sense of self importance.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,481
    kinabalu said:

    Anorak said:

    Ignore Brexit. Romney is an odd chap. Weirdness starts about 25 secs in.
    https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1105464669353971712

    It's so as not to get saliva on the cake.
    Or perhaps he has a balance problem, and was avoiding a faceplant ?
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Danny565 said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg undecided.

    IF the ERG want to stop playing the useful idiots for Remain they'd abstain tonight rather than vote against. Same for DUP
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    _Anazina_ said:

    SeanT said:

    matt said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105473464302006272

    Someone failed to keep DUP on board last night.

    I hope they enjoy the border poll which will likely be coming their way.
    I don’t see this logic. The DUP might be a bunch of homophobic creepaloids - or not (I have a soft spot for Ulster Loyalists, as a Protestant Celt myself) - but their actions are, ironically, making a border poll less likely, by making hard Brexit, or any Brexit, less likely.

    If we go to Norway Plus or simply Remain (now much more probable as the Deal falls) then the GFA stands, there is no Hard Border, the Irish (on both sides) will breathe a sigh of relief, and everyone will gladly revert to normal. I think the desire for another divisive, bitter, combustible referendum, with unpredictable outcomes, will be approximately zero.

    If we get No Deal and a Hard Border, then yes, a border poll looms into view. But that will probably be ruled out, tomorrow.
    A Protestant Celt? I think you'll find that most Duppers are ethnic Ulster Scots, probably descended from Picts rather than Celts – one of the problematic features of NI is that cross-sectarian sex and interbreeding is still fairly rare.
    I thought the latest theory is that Pictish was in fact a Celtic language. Not sure if they’ve nailed it down to Goidelic or Brythonic tho. Also speaking linguistically, an interesting feature of NI is that there is no discernable dialect difference between Protestants and Catholics.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Does Corbyn only give away to labour, or rare SNP?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,921
    Those empty benches - the Conservative party is immensely brutal with its leaders. Labour should take note.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,441
    Danny565 said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg undecided.

    Given all the ridiculous twists and turns throughout his process I could just about see some kind of eleventh hour ERG Damascene conversion as they realise Brexit is slipping away from them...
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Other MPs whose reputation has been enhanced by Brexit: Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, Phil Hammond, Richard Harrington, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Oliver Letwin.

    I appreciate that this list might not be popular amongst obsessively partisan Leavers, but by any objective standard this group has fought well and effectively for their principled views on what is best for the country.

    I agree entirely with your list; those MPs are glittering stars of integrity against the Brexit's black void. I'd also add Sarah Wollaston. The way she countered her Leave instincts and embraced Remain when the horror of Brexit became all too apparent took a huge amount of intellectual self searching and guts.
    LOL ! Sarah Wollaston her Leave instincts :D
    Remainers are unbelieveably thick, part 692.
    Very ironic coming from someone who has vociferously supported the most stupid foreign policy devised in British history; a pointless act of national self harm. And you, an individual who is so ignorant that he thinks Muslims should be deported. When it comes to politics, it is those on the extremes who are best described as "unbelievably thick", and it is those extremes in which you and your hateful attitudes clearly reside.
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    kfowkeskfowkes Posts: 20
    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to say what would happen at another GE as regards Corbyn.

    Hard to say, I'd probably expect a small Tory maiority. e.g Labour losing 4 seats to the SNP, 10-15 to the Tories and Sheffield Hallam to the LDs.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,100
    Norm said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    I'd say a GE is more likely than a second ref. It is the only escape route that doesn't blow the Tory party apart.
    It would have to have a new Leader in place. May still in place = joke status. What the hell would they say when door-knocking to re-elect May as PM???

    "Despite appearences, we really aren't as shit as the other lot...."?
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    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Anorak said:

    I have a sneaking suspicion that 90% of vociferous leavers (you know "WTO will be fine" and "traitor!!") have no real idea what's in the withdrawal agreement they hate so much.

    Just a feeling, mind.

    Then they would be in the same boat as the apparently much-admired Ken Clarke when he voted for the Maastricht Treaty “without having read it”. He even boasted about it.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/disappeared-in-a-puff-of-smoke-1243768.html

    The respect for Clarke on here bewilders me. I’m sure he’s a lovely affable jazz loving dude and all that, but really, the lazy arrogant complacency of ardent europhiles like him - never questioning the views of their youth, just like Corbyn - are one of the reasons we are now in this deep pile of dung.

    If the europhiles had been more intelligent, wise and humble, they would have realised that resentment against the EU was slowly building, and needed to be vented in a safe, democratic way. With a referendum on one of the prior Treaties, which would not have resulted in the fatal rupture of Brexit.

    But no, the europhiles just kept on keeping on, ignoring the people, or outright lying to them. And constantly denying promised plebiscites.

    And here we are. Discussing the break up of the nation and the impoverishment of all.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. L, I hope you reconsider. Consider what's already happening with rising anti-Semitism, and the spectre of that occurring through the machinery of the state.

    Weren't the Picts, like the Normans, effectively absorbed into another society and ceased to exist as a people?
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,705
    Douglas Ross now has an enforced abstention tonight.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936

    Sean_F said:

    Other MPs whose reputation has been enhanced by Brexit: Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, Phil Hammond, Richard Harrington, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Oliver Letwin.

    I appreciate that this list might not be popular amongst obsessively partisan Leavers, but by any objective standard this group has fought well and effectively for their principled views on what is best for the country.

    Grieve has enhanced his reputation for cleverness, while also demonstrating that he is completely dishonourable.
    He's actually provided the way out of a catastrophic, disorderly no-deal crash out. Nothing dishonourable about that, given that the ERG and friends have dishonourably torpedoed an orderly Brexit.
    No he didn't. He is one of the reasons the Deal has failed.
    The deal failed because the DUP, ERG and Tory Leaver backbenchers formed an unholy alliance with a cynical Labour Party to trash it. It's a bit rich blaming Dominic Grieve for that.
    Grieve is the one who facilitated it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    Another aside (I hope you don't mind the distraction) but the XCOM 2 DLC is heavily discounted. In a very rare move, I actually bought it. Haven't started War of the Chosen just yet, but playing through the ordinary game with the first few pieces of DLC.

    It's going rather well, so far.

    I shall purchase now. Excellent.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,803

    Douglas Ross now has an enforced abstention tonight.

    So, the majority against is now down to just 197.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,246
    kinabalu said:

    Corbyn on form here. Amiable, focused, forensic.

    He's calm, he's zen, he's off to number 10.

    JICIPM?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910

    Douglas Ross now has an enforced abstention tonight.

    Why ?
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    It will serve the headbangers right if we end up with remain, but it is still a bad outcome for the UK. We have made ourselves look incredibly foolish, and we can have zero credibility with the other 27 for years to come. This makes Suez look inconsequential in terms of foreign policy folly
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    kfowkes said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to say what would happen at another GE as regards Corbyn.

    Hard to say, I'd probably expect a small Tory maiority. e.g Labour losing 4 seats to the SNP, 10-15 to the Tories and Sheffield Hallam to the LDs.
    I just cannot believe the Tories could win when they tear themselves apart so publicly. I know, Corbyn, and the polls, but still
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,921
    edited March 2019
    Any Tory MP who votes against the Deal today is essentially saying they are opposed to any achievable Brexit. It's really that simple. I honestly thought they were smarter than they are giving the impression of being. I consistently over-estimate the intelligence of MPs of all parties. I must keep reminding myself that the only skill they have that I envy is their ability to stay awake in meetings.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Its practically in the bag. Just 40 or so more and a 100 abstentions to go.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. kle4, aye, just over £20, normally about £50.

    Only played a little of the vanilla DLC, but enjoying it so far. Tasty saving, so glad to help.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    The ERG need to realise that is this the hardest Brexit they will ever get....
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781

    Do we think whenever he says “from a senior Tory” or “from a tip-top source” or similar it just means “from the head of Robert Peston”?
    I met Peston once. His undisguised ego makes most politicians seem positively humble.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,921
    edited March 2019
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to say what would happen at another GE as regards Corbyn.

    Corbyn is so toxic he would lose badly, even against this shower of Tory cretins. For a start, Labour would likely lose every remaining seat in Scotland.

    They might retain Ian Murray's. But to get a majority of one Labour needs to be winning 20+ seats in Scotland - and that just isn't going to happen.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    Danny565 said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg undecided.

    Given all the ridiculous twists and turns throughout his process I could just about see some kind of eleventh hour ERG Damascene conversion as they realise Brexit is slipping away from them...
    Between 1200 and 1900? Anyone not convinced by the former is surely not persuadable by the latter.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Other MPs whose reputation has been enhanced by Brexit: Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, Phil Hammond, Richard Harrington, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Oliver Letwin.

    I appreciate that this list might not be popular amongst obsessively partisan Leavers, but by any objective standard this group has fought well and effectively for their principled views on what is best for the country.

    Grieve has enhanced his reputation for cleverness, while also demonstrating that he is completely dishonourable.
    He's actually provided the way out of a catastrophic, disorderly no-deal crash out. Nothing dishonourable about that, given that the ERG and friends have dishonourably torpedoed an orderly Brexit.
    No he didn't. He is one of the reasons the Deal has failed.
    The deal failed because the DUP, ERG and Tory Leaver backbenchers formed an unholy alliance with a cynical Labour Party to trash it. It's a bit rich blaming Dominic Grieve for that.
    He's certainly not mostly to blame for things. But he's a fanatic who gets away with it by being clever and because people want to remain, and that annoys me because he's just as unbending and high risk in his approach as Rees Mogg. He shouldn't get away with pretending he's not just as willing to day ir do anything to get what he wants and damn everyone else, as the leaver ultras. I'd back remain now and I think Grieve is a hypocrit and a disgrace.
    I don't think that entirely fair.
    He has at least engineered ways in which parliament can actually express an opinion - as opposed to the ERG, who seem to regonise no opinion but theirs (and perhaps that of the DUP), and have sought to achieve No Deal Brexit via filibuster.
    Except he claimed not to be seeking that, and triggered a50. If he just openly sought to derail Brexit from the start I'd have no issue. But his reasons to oppose the deal apply to every Brexit and he should have been honest. he's a snake.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    SeanT said:

    Anorak said:

    I have a sneaking suspicion that 90% of vociferous leavers (you know "WTO will be fine" and "traitor!!") have no real idea what's in the withdrawal agreement they hate so much.

    Just a feeling, mind.

    Then they would be in the same boat as the apparently much-admired Ken Clarke when he voted for the Maastricht Treaty “without having read it”. He even boasted about it.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/disappeared-in-a-puff-of-smoke-1243768.html

    The respect for Clarke on here bewilders me. I’m sure he’s a lovely affable jazz loving dude and all that, but really, the lazy arrogant complacency of ardent europhiles like him - never questioning the views of their youth, just like Corbyn - are one of the reasons we are now in this deep pile of dung.

    If the europhiles had been more intelligent, wise and humble, they would have realised that resentment against the EU was slowly building, and needed to be vented in a safe, democratic way. With a referendum on one of the prior Treaties, which would not have resulted in the fatal rupture of Brexit.

    But no, the europhiles just kept on keeping on, ignoring the people, or outright lying to them. And constantly denying promised plebiscites.

    And here we are. Discussing the break up of the nation and the impoverishment of all.
    I should have also said that 90% of ardent remainers have no idea either.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Norm said:

    I'd say a GE is more likely than a second ref. It is the only escape route that doesn't blow the Tory party apart.

    I agree. And I hope so too. A 2nd referendum IMO would be the worst possible course of action.

    But ideally, the Withdrawal Agreement will eventually pass. I still think it probably will.

    The clue is in the title. If we wish to withdraw (from the EU) we need to sign it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Has any MP other than Geoffrey Cox come out of the Brexit process with their reputation enhanced?

    Rory Stewart.

    Arguably Gove, Mordaunt and Leadsom, depending on where you draw the baseline.

    And Starmer.
    This will be the same Starmer locked in a cupboard under the stairs by Corbyn?
    Be honest; had you even heard of him before he got appointed Shadow Brexit Sec?
    Er, yes I had heard of the then DPP and head of the CPS....
    Yeah, fair enough.

    I hadn't. Even if I had, I might not have realised he was now an MP.
    Remarkably he was floated as a potential labour leader days after being elected.

    He's had a good Brexit.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,803
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Other MPs whose reputation has been enhanced by Brexit: Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, Phil Hammond, Richard Harrington, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Oliver Letwin.

    I appreciate that this list might not be popular amongst obsessively partisan Leavers, but by any objective standard this group has fought well and effectively for their principled views on what is best for the country.

    Grieve has enhanced his reputation for cleverness, while also demonstrating that he is completely dishonourable.
    He's actually provided the way out of a catastrophic, disorderly no-deal crash out. Nothing dishonourable about that, given that the ERG and friends have dishonourably torpedoed an orderly Brexit.
    No he didn't. He is one of the reasons the Deal has failed.
    The deal failed because the DUP, ERG and Tory Leaver backbenchers formed an unholy alliance with a cynical Labour Party to trash it. It's a bit rich blaming Dominic Grieve for that.
    He's certainly not mostly to blame for things. But he's a fanatic who gets away with it by being clever and because people want to remain, and that annoys me because he's just as unbending and high risk in his approach as Rees Mogg. He shouldn't get away with pretending he's not just as willing to day ir do anything to get what he wants and damn everyone else, as the leaver ultras. I'd back remain now and I think Grieve is a hypocrit and a disgrace.
    I don't think that entirely fair.
    He has at least engineered ways in which parliament can actually express an opinion - as opposed to the ERG, who seem to regonise no opinion but theirs (and perhaps that of the DUP), and have sought to achieve No Deal Brexit via filibuster.
    Except he claimed not to be seeking that, and triggered a50. If he just openly sought to derail Brexit from the start I'd have no issue. But his reasons to oppose the deal apply to every Brexit and he should have been honest. he's a snake.
    An amoral sociopathic snake.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Norm said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    I'd say a GE is more likely than a second ref. It is the only escape route that doesn't blow the Tory party apart.
    A GE also does that and does not secure an outcome.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,964
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg undecided.

    Given all the ridiculous twists and turns throughout his process I could just about see some kind of eleventh hour ERG Damascene conversion as they realise Brexit is slipping away from them...
    Between 1200 and 1900? Anyone not convinced by the former is surely not persuadable by the latter.
    Are they going to join Farage in armed insurrection?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Bill Cash is not making any sense..other than BLAH BLAH EU is bad....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    Boeing have some serious issues at the moment, I think it's fair to say.

    https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/619272-ethiopian-airliner-down-africa-40.html
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,202

    Bill Cash is not making any sense..other than BLAH BLAH EU is bad....

    He is genuinely insane. Quite, quite mad.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    SeanT said:

    Anorak said:

    I have a sneaking suspicion that 90% of vociferous leavers (you know "WTO will be fine" and "traitor!!") have no real idea what's in the withdrawal agreement they hate so much.

    Just a feeling, mind.

    Then they would be in the same boat as the apparently much-admired Ken Clarke when he voted for the Maastricht Treaty “without having read it”. He even boasted about it.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/disappeared-in-a-puff-of-smoke-1243768.html

    The respect for Clarke on here bewilders me. I’m sure he’s a lovely affable jazz loving dude and all that, but really, the lazy arrogant complacency of ardent europhiles like him - never questioning the views of their youth, just like Corbyn - are one of the reasons we are now in this deep pile of dung.

    If the europhiles had been more intelligent, wise and humble, they would have realised that resentment against the EU was slowly building, and needed to be vented in a safe, democratic way. With a referendum on one of the prior Treaties, which would not have resulted in the fatal rupture of Brexit.

    But no, the europhiles just kept on keeping on, ignoring the people, or outright lying to them. And constantly denying promised plebiscites.

    And here we are. Discussing the break up of the nation and the impoverishment of all.
    Clarke at least has compromised and accepted the deal.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    The ERG need to realise that is this the hardest Brexit they will ever get....

    It's not just the hardest it's probably the only Brexit.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    They are desperately looking for a way that enables them to avoid taking the blame for the decision, so that suggests that they will find the most circuitous and damaging route available.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Boeing have some serious issues at the moment, I think it's fair to say.

    I don't understand their position. Why not simply recommend a temporary grounding as a precaution? They'll have the preliminary findings from the flight-recorder data very soon. If that shows there's no problem, fair enough. If it shows there is a problem, the last thing they want is to be shown to have been careless with passenger safety following the latest crash.

    Meanwhile France and Ireland have announced their own bans.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Nigelb said:

    Or perhaps he has a balance problem, and was avoiding a faceplant ?

    Yes, I suppose. Perhaps despite Mormonness he had had a few sherberts.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    Bill Cash is not making any sense..other than BLAH BLAH EU is bad....

    An easy way to break from them then!
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:

    Anorak said:

    I have a sneaking suspicion that 90% of vociferous leavers (you know "WTO will be fine" and "traitor!!") have no real idea what's in the withdrawal agreement they hate so much.

    Just a feeling, mind.

    Then they would be in the same boat as the apparently much-admired Ken Clarke when he voted for the Maastricht Treaty “without having read it”. He even boasted about it.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/disappeared-in-a-puff-of-smoke-1243768.html

    The respect for Clarke on here bewilders me. I’m sure he’s a lovely affable jazz loving dude and all that, but really, the lazy arrogant complacency of ardent europhiles like him - never questioning the views of their youth, just like Corbyn - are one of the reasons we are now in this deep pile of dung.

    If the europhiles had been more intelligent, wise and humble, they would have realised that resentment against the EU was slowly building, and needed to be vented in a safe, democratic way. With a referendum on one of the prior Treaties, which would not have resulted in the fatal rupture of Brexit.

    But no, the europhiles just kept on keeping on, ignoring the people, or outright lying to them. And constantly denying promised plebiscites.

    And here we are. Discussing the break up of the nation and the impoverishment of all.
    I should have also said that 90% of ardent remainers have no idea either.
    I definitely recall pb being full of full-throated supporters of the deal on the morning it was released, mocking its opponents for coming to a conclusion without having had time to read all of it. The hypocrisy seemed to pass most of them by.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Anorak said:

    Christ, there's more than one of you?!?

    :-)

    Chance would be a fine thing.
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    AndyJS said:

    Boeing have some serious issues at the moment, I think it's fair to say.

    I don't understand their position. Why not simply recommend a temporary grounding as a precaution? They'll have the preliminary findings from the flight-recorder data very soon.

    Meanwhile France and Ireland have announced their own bans.
    Insurance and SLA compensation.

    If they insist on a grounding they have to pay the airlines.

    They don’t pay out as much if the authorities insist on the groundings.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited March 2019
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,511
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    kfowkes said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to say what would happen at another GE as regards Corbyn.

    Hard to say, I'd probably expect a small Tory maiority. e.g Labour losing 4 seats to the SNP, 10-15 to the Tories and Sheffield Hallam to the LDs.
    I just cannot believe the Tories could win when they tear themselves apart so publicly. I know, Corbyn, and the polls, but still
    Obviously it isn't possible for everyone to lose absolutely at the same time in our electoral system, but it is hard to avoid thinking that if there were a GE the result would not achieve the only significant outcome, which is a clear pathway forward over Europe. What sort of result possibly could?

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Boeing have some serious issues at the moment, I think it's fair to say.

    I don't understand their position. Why not simply recommend a temporary grounding as a precaution? They'll have the preliminary findings from the flight-recorder data very soon. If that shows there's no problem, fair enough. If it shows there is a problem, the last thing they want is to be shown to have been careless with passenger safety following the latest crash.

    Meanwhile France and Ireland have announced their own bans.
    It's almost as if they don't want to admit anything serious might allegedly be wrong, when clearly many other aviation authorities think there very well might be.
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    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Any Tory MP who votes against the Deal today is essentially saying they are opposed to any achievable Brexit. It's really that simple. I honestly thought they were smarter than they are giving the impression of being. I consistently over-estimate the intelligence of MPs of all parties. I must keep reminding myself that the only skill they have that I envy is their ability to stay awake in meetings.

    Yes. Remember that Nick Palmer was an MP, a man who claims not to see any anti-Semitism in THAT mural. He is either lying (and I don’t wish to think that of Nick) or really quite remarkably ignorant.

    On the other side you have Leavers like John Redwood (another man who I presumed had a basic intelligence) claiming that Airbus quitting was never a problem for Britain, because they would never quit, as “they will always need our wings to fly”.

    I mean. Fuck me. Help.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2019
    Edit: Sorry, Derek Thomas was already in the list.

    So back to 218 and counting.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,441
    Scott_P said:
    Oh god, it really is on.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,949

    AndyJS said:

    Boeing have some serious issues at the moment, I think it's fair to say.

    I don't understand their position. Why not simply recommend a temporary grounding as a precaution? They'll have the preliminary findings from the flight-recorder data very soon.

    Meanwhile France and Ireland have announced their own bans.
    Insurance and SLA compensation.

    If they insist on a grounding they have to pay the airlines.

    They don’t pay out as much if the authorities insist on the groundings.
    It was interesting listening to Ryanair this morning who seemed to be saying we are accepting planes as if we don't we'll sent to the back of the queue rather than the front.
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    How many of PB one nation Leavers now wish they had voted Remain?

    It avoids this shit show and we’d probably still have Dave in charge.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    You're all assuming that everyone that voted for the deal last time will do so this time.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,949
    kle4 said:

    Norm said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    I'd say a GE is more likely than a second ref. It is the only escape route that doesn't blow the Tory party apart.
    A GE also does that and does not secure an outcome.
    +1 If the Tory Manifesto says that they will implement May's Deal how does JRM or other ERG members stand under the Tory banner...
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    kle4 said:

    Norm said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So how is this lying, useless, hypocritical collection of scum bags going to get us back to remain? Surely that is the only question that is left.

    Extension for 3 months, then referendum.
    I'd say a GE is more likely than a second ref. It is the only escape route that doesn't blow the Tory party apart.
    A GE also does that and does not secure an outcome.
    Time to face up to facts, my friends. The Tory Party has been held together for years and years only by string, chewing gum, bluff and a desire to cling on to power. Finally the underlying reality is catching up with them
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    I'm always confused about the role of auto-pilot on long-haul flights. You hear people say the plane is on auto-pilot for the entire flight, and so you ask whether this includes take-off and landing, and half the time the reply is "oh no, not for takeoff and landing", which is all a bit confusing. I still don't know what the correct answer is.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,803
    SeanT said:

    Any Tory MP who votes against the Deal today is essentially saying they are opposed to any achievable Brexit. It's really that simple. I honestly thought they were smarter than they are giving the impression of being. I consistently over-estimate the intelligence of MPs of all parties. I must keep reminding myself that the only skill they have that I envy is their ability to stay awake in meetings.

    Yes. Remember that Nick Palmer was an MP, a man who claims not to see any anti-Semitism in THAT mural. He is either lying (and I don’t wish to think that of Nick) or really quite remarkably ignorant.

    On the other side you have Leavers like John Redwood (another man who I presumed had a basic intelligence) claiming that Airbus quitting was never a problem for Britain, because they would never quit, as “they will always need our wings to fly”.

    I mean. Fuck me. Help.
    The backstop is not an issue for Redwood. He simply regards the EU as evil, and no bargain can be struck with evil.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    tlg86 said:

    You're all assuming that everyone that voted for the deal last time will do so this time.

    Yes, I said that when I started the count. I think it's a fair working assumption, though, and in any case for us sellers on the spreads, any switchers in that direction are bunce.
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    How many of PB one nation Leavers now wish they had voted Remain?

    It avoids this shit show and we’d probably still have Dave in charge.

    Me. I still think we would be better out of the EU, but acceptable within the single market. But I didn’t get the choice of which type of leave. The WA is tolerable, but I loath to be associated with the ERG and DUP nutters. Maybe I was naive thinking that we could manage our own affairs.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,297
    SeanT said:

    Any Tory MP who votes against the Deal today is essentially saying they are opposed to any achievable Brexit. It's really that simple. I honestly thought they were smarter than they are giving the impression of being. I consistently over-estimate the intelligence of MPs of all parties. I must keep reminding myself that the only skill they have that I envy is their ability to stay awake in meetings.

    Yes. Remember that Nick Palmer was an MP, a man who claims not to see any anti-Semitism in THAT mural. He is either lying (and I don’t wish to think that of Nick) or really quite remarkably ignorant.

    On the other side you have Leavers like John Redwood (another man who I presumed had a basic intelligence) claiming that Airbus quitting was never a problem for Britain, because they would never quit, as “they will always need our wings to fly”.

    I mean. Fuck me. Help.
    Wasn't Redwood a fellow of All Souls, meaning he had to past the most difficult exam on the planet?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/11977456/Could-you-pass-the-worlds-hardest-test-from-Oxford-University.html
This discussion has been closed.