Perhaps the mutual incomprehension between Brexiteers lies in the fact that some of them wanted to be Canada to the EU's USA, but others wanted to be the Confederacy.
I've said all along Canada to the EU's USA.
The Confederacy is a load of b***ocks as a suggestion.
No, the EU was loath to give it to us but they extended the backstop to the whole of the UK ......
Only the customs union part of the backstop is all-UK iirc. We later (sort-of) committed to keep the rest of the UK in single market alignment to avoid divergence though, as a sop to the DUP.
Both the back boxes have been retrieved after the Boeing 737Max crash the other day. The Ethiopian authorities are so happy with the way the Americans and Boeing have handled things so far they're sending the boxes to be analysed at BEA.
Which is in Paris.
Yes, the home country of Boeing's biggest rival (it sounds like we were in the running for it as well).
That's got to hurt the pride of Boeing and the FAA.
And in related news, the scuttlebut is that data from another satellite system shows the flight had a very similar profile to the one that crashed at the end of last year, and it was this info that caused Canada and the US to finally stop flights.
Possibly the a/c was registered in France? A lot of airlines register their aircraft in developed countries to reassure their passengers that they are well regulated. A lot of Aeroflot's planes are registered in France for instance.
Sigh. Do you think that a Parliament with a Remain majority is going to hurry things along? A simple question. Looking at the past few months, you know the answer to that. We're going nowhere with these MPs.
We'd have to rely on the EU becoming trustworthy or the MP balance changing. I accept you trust them, but that and £3 will buy you a pint of beer up here.
But - your problem with the situation is then based on the MPs? That's - there's no way or nothing the EU could ever offer to overcome that, unless they literally had the option of overruling them and taking direct control. Which is sort of the exact opposite of what Leavers say they want.
Your issue lies not with the Deal. Or any Deal. Or No Deal. Or Remain. It lies with the UK Parliament and UK Government.
The power is literally in the hands of the UK Government. What exactly is it that you're after from Brexit?
Perhaps the mutual incomprehension between Brexiteers lies in the fact that some of them wanted to be Canada to the EU's USA, but others wanted to be the Confederacy.
I've said all along Canada to the EU's USA.
The Confederacy is a load of b***ocks as a suggestion.
There are clearly some Brexiteers who will only be satisfied with an abrupt break, hopefully without the shooting. They should remember the Confederacy’s fate.
In this case, it's terribly simple. If you believe the EU is sincere about implementing a technical solution to the Irish border, then the deal is fine.
The EU is not committing to implementing a technical solution to the Irish border. They are committing to entertain the possibility that such a solution might be possible, despite the fact that any infrastructure or checks must be ruled out. It's a wild goose chase for Brexiteers.
So we need to stop doing the VAT and Customs and Excise checks as well then?
There are no systematic VAT or Customs and Excise checks at the border.
Why not given that VAT or Customs and Excise rates vary on both sides of the border?
It’s the only deal on the table and I don’t reckon many MPs would have the balls to prevent Brexit.
I was wrong yesterday suggesting May’s deal would win. But was I really wrong, or were the brexit MPs wrong for not joining Davis in backing the deal? despite some big beast backers Malthouse didn’t get 170 votes today.
If May’s deal does pass next week I think it will be really tight. would there be the same momentum of the deal being very different, and how does that get DUP onside? Only 3 labour supported yesterday. To what degree could both wings of the Conservative parliamentary contingent be squeezed right down to next to nothing, headbangers will still be headbangers, remainiacs and people vote supporters may even be energised and in greater numbers after subsequent events, for example Ken Clarke supported May this week would he still do so next week?
There seems a push now for Parliament to rally around a soft brexit common market 2 compromise. Personally to listen to parliamentarians talk excitedly about Norway style vassalage dismays me, thats clearly a worse place for Great Britain than hard brexit or remain imo.
I think May or successor will choose GE rather than people’s vote. However, if, and its still if, Mays WA isn’t passed then a May’s WA voted through subject to being put to the people could be a further option. I think that is the outcome I will place my money on.
I don't want to besmirch my computer by reading the Mail on it so could you give details as to when Steel supposedly knew about Fat Cyril ? Was it before, during or after.
After I think. I just thought it was an interesting story as I have seen Steel on the TV saying you should not condemn a dead man who cannot speak for himself in the past.
To be fair, this always was the week the Child Abuse inquiry was scheduled to look at goings on in Parliament. I believe it has been scheduled for some time. What is disturbing is, given these revelations, that Boris should choose today to declare the whole thing to be a waste of money.
Anyway, I'm off to bed. The problem with the backstop is that the EU will not let us out because they can force us to pay £10 billion per year, except that there's no payment in the backstop, but it's that they can force us into an extension of the withdrawal period, but such an extension is unilaterally vetoable from either side but that the UK Government will voluntarily choose to extend the withdrawal period and the fact that they could do that is what's so unacceptable.
(We haven't yet got to the fact that the withdrawal period can only be extended once for a maximum of two years in any case, but I'm sure there's a good reason that it will still end up with us being forced somehow to be paying the EU loads of money forever and that's why they'll force us into... well, something.
Anyway, I'm off to bed. The problem with the backstop is that the EU will not let us out because they can force us to pay £10 billion per year, except that there's no payment in the backstop, but it's that they can force us into an extension of the withdrawal period, but such an extension is unilaterally vetoable from either side but that the UK Government will voluntarily choose to extend the withdrawal period and the fact that they could do that is what's so unacceptable.
(We haven't yet got to the fact that the withdrawal period can only be extended once for a maximum of two years in any case, but I'm sure there's a good reason that it will still end up with us being forced somehow to be paying the EU loads of money forever and that's why they'll force us into... well, something.
That's the best past about the backstop (especially now that it has a slightly convoluted escape mechanism), there's no need to extend the withdrawal period. It ends, we stop paying but stay in the safety of the customs union until such time as a long term deal is agreed. Plus it allows us time to sign up of the non-EU trading partners into new deals that the lamentable Fox has failed to do.
I feel like even the Mail is struggling to find a way to summarise things in a way that gives even glimmer of hope for the government. People like this
Wasn’t there some rumour today about Geoffrey Cox revising his legal advice to say something about being able to use the Vienna Convention ? Could that be the rig leaf the erg and dup need
Note final part of thread - May will need more Labour rebels even if most of ERG fall in line.
If MV3 has a count of 305-310 without Labour then I expect enough Labour MPs could be convinced/bribed to back the deal and maybe even forget to go to Westminster the following day when the DUP tries to bring the government down.
Wasn’t there some rumour today about Geoffrey Cox revising his legal advice to say something about being able to use the Vienna Convention ? Could that be the rig leaf the erg and dup need
I get the impression the belief that they want a fig leaf is one of the false ideas, like that dozens of Labour MPs are just waiting for a good enough to reason to vote for the deal. If they didn't for MV2, odds are even if Cox says 'Oh, I forgot to mention this other thing the other day' they'd find some other reason to still not back it.
The enlightening thing about this whole situation is how few of the MPs seem actually to think about the country, i.e. with pragmatism to get a workable result for the country given he context of the vote to leave. Its ideology and standard party politics, sometimes you wonder if its score settling in there as well.
On Monday night I mentioned that the concessions that May brought back would prove challenging for the DUP to outright reject and that they genuinely hadn't called their decision in the immediate few hours after. What someone this side of the water mentioned to me earlier was that what really swung it for them was 1) the Attorney General's statement which acted as a sound fig leaf but more important was 2) they gauged enough feedback that the ERG types wouldn't buy in for it to have a chance before they put their statement out. In short they let the ERG act as a human shield.
Note final part of thread - May will need more Labour rebels even if most of ERG fall in line.
If MV3 has a count of 305-310 without Labour then I expect enough Labour MPs could be convinced/bribed to back the deal and maybe even forget to go to Westminster the following day when the DUP tries to bring the government down.
So you're a believer in the success of MV4? Let's at least see MV3 fail first.
A summary of part of Cox's opinion. ..."if there is a failure because of “intractable differences” then the UK has no lawful means of unilaterally ending the backstop protocol."
But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?
Yes. It wasn't a bad deal.
I have to admit I have come round to TM deal it’s a lot better than the lazy mps realise , and the backstop actually has some benefits to the uk giving us frictionless trade without having to pay in and no fom. It’s probably the best we can get for now , dup and erg need to grow up and think about the good of the country and concentrate on destroying Marxist Corbyn
Was the backstop bigged up as more of a problem than really is. Correct me where wrong, you agree a trade partnership in the time frame, backstop goes into dustbin unused. If you don’t agree deal in the time limit, and its hunky bit of time then since A50 invoked, rather than go into controversial backstop there could be further less controversial time extension instead?
I think there was too much Brexiteer posturing about May’s hideous Chequers deal when she signed it, the ranters came to believe in their own rhetoric. And secretive, controlling, supercilious way May conducts negotiation May have contributed to the atmosphere too.
Sarah Wollaston on Newsnight: "We have a government whose main policy is to deliver economic catastrophe".
Why did she not quit 2 years ago then? It's been Tory policy to deliver Brexit for a long time now.
When converters get that extreme about how bad their former party is, it just makes them look stupid for not going sooner. Same thing with Carswell, getting more and more elaborate about how bad things had been, raising the question of how he stayed so long.
Note final part of thread - May will need more Labour rebels even if most of ERG fall in line.
If MV3 has a count of 305-310 without Labour then I expect enough Labour MPs could be convinced/bribed to back the deal and maybe even forget to go to Westminster the following day when the DUP tries to bring the government down.
So you're a believer in the success of MV4? Let's at least see MV3 fail first.
No I mean a count, not vote. If the whips count that many Tory's in the Ayes then they will find enough Labour votes in MV3. I don't see it happening. If MV3 had lost by 50-60 I think May could have gone back to the commission and have the reword something and got it over the line.
Personally I think the deal is dead and we're going to remain by way of revocation.
Are we seriously talking about turning around 75 votes in the next few days? I understand the consensus on here is for Mays Deal. But is that really feasible? The ERG, DUP and hordes of Labour rebels have been confidently predicted many, many times. Meanwhile the PM seems to do everything she can to alienate anyone not on the Brexit fringe.
Genuine question. Can anyone tell me exactly what has to happen for Parliament to amend the Brexit date please? Get another Bill passed, will a statutory instrument do it? In either case (or any other case) do these all start in the name of an MP; the protagonist if you like? Just musing which Conservative member is going to want that on their CV.
Observation. The minister George Eustice, a leaver, resigned recently in advance of these votes, presumably as he anticipated difficulty holding to the Govt position. That action looks pretty honourable compared to the remainer Cabinet Ministers who did not support the Govt this evening. Implications for them (Rudd, Gauke etc) in the next leader markets?
Sarah Wollaston on Newsnight: "We have a government whose main policy is to deliver economic catastrophe".
Why did she not quit 2 years ago then? It's been Tory policy to deliver Brexit for a long time now.
When converters get that extreme about how bad their former party is, it just makes them look stupid for not going sooner. Same thing with Carswell, getting more and more elaborate about how bad things had been, raising the question of how he stayed so long.
She was talking about a No Deal Brexit. Not just Brexit.
Are we seriously talking about turning around 75 votes in the next few days? I understand the consensus on here is for Mays Deal. But is that really feasible? The ERG, DUP and hordes of Labour rebels have been confidently predicted many, many times. Meanwhile the PM seems to do everything she can to alienate anyone not on the Brexit fringe.
Not it is not feasible. As you say the switching of those that are needed has long been predicted, and the main reason given for why so many might so quickly does not stack up - no matter how dumb people think the ERG might be, or gutless the Labour rebels, they knew and were repeatedly told Brexit was risked if they voted down the deal again, they knew a vote on no deal would be forthcoming and they knew how the Commons as a whole thought about it. The idea they did not know today, in some form, was not a likely outcome and that enough of them at least will hold firm is for the birds.
Regrettable though it is a lot of the ERGers, and the DUP, really do mean that they will never vote for the deal, no matter what happens as a result. And as for the Labour rebels, a handful are on record as for, a handful as maybes, it is clearly just bluster.
Sarah Wollaston on Newsnight: "We have a government whose main policy is to deliver economic catastrophe".
Why did she not quit 2 years ago then? It's been Tory policy to deliver Brexit for a long time now.
When converters get that extreme about how bad their former party is, it just makes them look stupid for not going sooner. Same thing with Carswell, getting more and more elaborate about how bad things had been, raising the question of how he stayed so long.
She was talking about a No Deal Brexit. Not just Brexit.
That's not government policy. It hasn't committed to stopping it yet, but that's not the same thing.
And if she believes differently about Brexit generally, in anything other than scale of catastrophe, I'll eat my hat.
A summary of part of Cox's opinion. ..."if there is a failure because of “intractable differences” then the UK has no lawful means of unilaterally ending the backstop protocol."
But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?
Yes. It wasn't a bad deal.
I have to admit I have come round to TM deal it’s a lot better than the lazy mps realise , and the backstop actually has some benefits to the uk giving us frictionless trade without having to pay in and no fom. It’s probably the best we can get for now , dup and erg need to grow up and think about the good of the country and concentrate on destroying Marxist Corbyn
Was the backstop bigged up as more of a problem than really is. Correct me where wrong, you agree a trade partnership in the time frame, backstop goes into dustbin unused. If you don’t agree deal in the time limit, and its hunky bit of time then since A50 invoked, rather than go into controversial backstop there could be further less controversial time extension instead?
I think there was too much Brexiteer posturing about May’s hideous Chequers deal when she signed it, the ranters came to believe in their own rhetoric. And secretive, controlling, supercilious way May conducts negotiation May have contributed to the atmosphere too.
The problem is that the backstop is like a loaded pistol pointed at the UK's head. Our only way out is to sign whatever the EU gives us.
And the fact they're negotiating that way now before we leaves and while we [theoretically] have the option to walk away betrays how they'll negotiate once we're hogtied to the backstop.
Genuine question. Can anyone tell me exactly what has to happen for Parliament to amend the Brexit date please? Get another Bill passed, will a statutory instrument do it? In either case (or any other case) do these all start in the name of an MP; the protagonist if you like? Just musing which Conservative member is going to want that on their CV.
Observation. The minister George Eustice, a leaver, resigned recently in advance of these votes, presumably as he anticipated difficulty holding to the Govt position. That action looks pretty honourable compared to the remainer Cabinet Ministers who did not support the Govt this evening. Implications for them (Rudd, Gauke etc) in the next leader markets?
The remainer Cabinet members did not have a very good shot regardless I'd have said.
In terms of amending Brexit date I believe someone linked to the withdrawal act and suggested a minister can do it for at least a time (assuming the EU agree)?
Genuine question. Can anyone tell me exactly what has to happen for Parliament to amend the Brexit date please? Get another Bill passed, will a statutory instrument do it? In either case (or any other case) do these all start in the name of an MP; the protagonist if you like? Just musing which Conservative member is going to want that on their CV.
Observation. The minister George Eustice, a leaver, resigned recently in advance of these votes, presumably as he anticipated difficulty holding to the Govt position. That action looks pretty honourable compared to the remainer Cabinet Ministers who did not support the Govt this evening. Implications for them (Rudd, Gauke etc) in the next leader markets?
A statutory instrument will do it. And, to be fair to those named, it was a Free Vote right up to literally seconds before it was whipped. Not much time to resign. That they haven't been fired shows how utterly, utterly powerless the PM is.
A lot of pundits are saying a third vote on the Deal will get through. I don't agree, I think an extension is far more likely because all sides can agree on a delay because they'll all believe it could suit their position.
It feels to me like we are in our Red double-decker bus nearing the chasm.
The government believed that their bridge / deal would take us safely to the other side of that chasm, into a different place. The ERG believe that we need no bridge and will safely jump over to the sunlit uplands. Parliament are screaming about the chasm, have refused to let the driver use the bridge and are arguing about what new type of bridge we need, whether we can loop round and try again or put the brakes on.
However the bus is still heading for the chasm, we are running out of time and the driver keeps pointing ahead and saying "make your mind up please".
I now think we will go over the edge. Not because the majority want it but because they can't act together to agree on a viable alternative. So yes, the ERG will win.
A summary of part of Cox's opinion. ..."if there is a failure because of “intractable differences” then the UK has no lawful means of unilaterally ending the backstop protocol."
But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?
Yes. It wasn't a bad deal.
I have to admit I have come round to TM deal it’s a lot better than the lazy mps realise , and the backstop actually has some benefits to the uk giving us frictionless trade without having to pay in and no fom. It’s probably the best we can get for now , dup and erg need to grow up and think about the good of the country and concentrate on destroying Marxist Corbyn
Was the backstop bigged up as more of a problem than really is. Correct me where wrong, you agree a trade partnership in the time frame, backstop goes into dustbin unused. If you don’t agree deal in the time limit, and its hunky bit of time then since A50 invoked, rather than go into controversial backstop there could be further less controversial time extension instead?
I think there was too much Brexiteer posturing about May’s hideous Chequers deal when she signed it, the ranters came to believe in their own rhetoric. And secretive, controlling, supercilious way May conducts negotiation May have contributed to the atmosphere too.
The problem is that the backstop is like a loaded pistol pointed at the UK's head. Our only way out is to sign whatever the EU gives us.
And the fact they're negotiating that way now before we leaves and while we [theoretically] have the option to walk away betrays how they'll negotiate once we're hogtied to the backstop.
Hold on, I thought the fear was that we'd be held in against our will and the EU would not negotiate any deal?
I'm really confused as to why May whipped the vote against the motion. I thought she had come out as on balance in favour of extension in preference to no deal for the sake of the precious Union, but then she didn't seem to care so much about the Union by whipping the vote in that way. What gives?
I'm really confused as to why May whipped the vote against the motion. I thought she had come out as on balance in favour of extension in preference to no deal for the sake of the precious Union, but then she didn't seem to care so much about the Union by whipping the vote in that way. What gives?
She is panicking and not quite in command of events.
It feels to me like we are in our Red double-decker bus nearing the chasm.
The government believed that their bridge / deal would take us safely to the other side of that chasm, into a different place. The ERG believe that we need no bridge and will safely jump over to the sunlit uplands. Parliament are screaming about the chasm, have refused to let the driver use the bridge and are arguing about what new type of bridge we need, whether we can loop round and try again or put the brakes on.
However the bus is still heading for the chasm, we are running out of time and the driver keeps pointing ahead and saying "make your mind up please".
I now think we will go over the edge. Not because the majority want it but because they can't act together to agree on a viable alternative. So yes, the ERG will win.
Note final part of thread - May will need more Labour rebels even if most of ERG fall in line.
Yeah, quite a few too. I was trying to work it out earlier, probably needs DUP plus 12-15 Lab.
Let's see 242 so far, assuming for the moment none of those switch (which given some comments today may not be the case). Assume, best case scenario, only 25-30 or so ERGers and Grievers hold out if the DUP come on board? That gets us to what, mid-high 290s? So yes, 10-20 additional Lab MPs?
A lot of pundits are saying a third vote on the Deal will get through. I don't agree, I think an extension is far more likely because all sides can agree on a delay because they'll all believe it could suit their position.
Quite. Optimism for the deal seems inevitable and infectious in the immediate shock that May has not yet been destroyed (officially at any rate) by the latest humiliating loss.
A summary of part of Cox's opinion. ..."if there is a failure because of “intractable differences” then the UK has no lawful means of unilaterally ending the backstop protocol."
But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?
Yes. It wasn't a bad deal.
I have to admit I have come round to TM deal it’s a lot better than the lazy mps realise , and the backstop actually has some benefits to the uk giving us frictionless trade without having to pay in and no fom. It’s probably the best we can get for now , dup and erg need to grow up and think about the good of the country and concentrate on destroying Marxist Corbyn
Was the backstop bigged up as more of a problem than really is. Correct me where wrong, you agree a trade partnership in the time frame, backstop goes into dustbin unused. If you don’t agree deal in the time limit, and its hunky bit of time then since A50 invoked, rather than go into controversial backstop there could be further less controversial time extension instead?
I think there was too much Brexiteer posturing about May’s hideous Chequers deal when she signed it, the ranters came to believe in their own rhetoric. And secretive, controlling, supercilious way May conducts negotiation May have contributed to the atmosphere too.
The problem is that the backstop is like a loaded pistol pointed at the UK's head. Our only way out is to sign whatever the EU gives us.
And the fact they're negotiating that way now before we leaves and while we [theoretically] have the option to walk away betrays how they'll negotiate once we're hogtied to the backstop.
Hold on, I thought the fear was that we'd be held in against our will and the EU would not negotiate any deal?
No I've never thought that. The EU will "negotiate" a deal in the same way as they "negotiated" the withdrawal agreement.
'This is the deal, this is the dotted line, sign here please. We can wait.'
Any ISDS style disputes to be settled by Europe probably the ECJ. It will be completely one-sided and be like the US's dominance of NAFTA but on steroids. Because if we don't sign it, they keep us in the backstop.
I'm really confused as to why May whipped the vote against the motion. I thought she had come out as on balance in favour of extension in preference to no deal for the sake of the precious Union, but then she didn't seem to care so much about the Union by whipping the vote in that way. What gives?
Best I can figure it was a sop to the ERGers by showing she was not full blown in support of extension, and she knew it would lose after the amendment passed, and she's just become inured to defeat so tried to gain at least a little capital with those idiots.
Although the spin to suggest ministers can abstain and not be sacked is risible. An opposition leader would be soundly mocked for a frontbencher on their side doing that.
I'm really confused as to why May whipped the vote against the motion. I thought she had come out as on balance in favour of extension in preference to no deal for the sake of the precious Union, but then she didn't seem to care so much about the Union by whipping the vote in that way. What gives?
It's only confusing if you haven't realised that May is a serial liar, even moreso than the average politician.
Are we seriously talking about turning around 75 votes in the next few days? I understand the consensus on here is for Mays Deal. But is that really feasible? The ERG, DUP and hordes of Labour rebels have been confidently predicted many, many times. Meanwhile the PM seems to do everything she can to alienate anyone not on the Brexit fringe.
I think you've hit something here...May needs to charm and cajole people- her approach is anything but. A Ken Clarke would have got the deal through....
The DUP weren't a million miles off backing May yesterday.
Why do people do this. Have a massive defeat. Hype themselves up. Try again. Get shocked at another massive defeat.
Read downthread. They weren't, I flagged it on Monday night before they made their call Tuesday that this was a major challenge for them on saying yes or no. As it is, the chances that they will make the difference either way, as of now, are small.
The DUP weren't a million miles off backing May yesterday.
Why do people do this. Have a massive defeat. Hype themselves up. Try again. Get shocked at another massive defeat.
Read downthread. They weren't, I flagged it on Monday night before they made their call Tuesday that this was a major challenge for them on saying yes or no. As it is, the chances that they will make the difference either way, as of now, are small.
If the deal is to go through it requires them saying Yes. If they say Yes that swings it by 20 (10 less No, 10 more Yes). 50-60 Tories of the 75 who voted No would probably vote Yes if the DUP did. That leaves 5-15 more to find.
Are we seriously talking about turning around 75 votes in the next few days? I understand the consensus on here is for Mays Deal. But is that really feasible? The ERG, DUP and hordes of Labour rebels have been confidently predicted many, many times. Meanwhile the PM seems to do everything she can to alienate anyone not on the Brexit fringe.
I think you've hit something here...May needs to charm and cajole people- her approach is anything but. A Ken Clarke would have got the deal through....
May lectures, she does not listen, she cannot convince. She is at the heart of this chaos.
Are we seriously talking about turning around 75 votes in the next few days? I understand the consensus on here is for Mays Deal. But is that really feasible? The ERG, DUP and hordes of Labour rebels have been confidently predicted many, many times. Meanwhile the PM seems to do everything she can to alienate anyone not on the Brexit fringe.
I think you've hit something here...May needs to charm and cajole people- her approach is anything but. A Ken Clarke would have got the deal through....
May lectures, she does not listen, she cannot convince. She is at the heart of this chaos.
She is the wrong choice to be leader. She is only there due to inertia.
Yep, the WA is not the issue. The problem is that as soon as it passes Parliament loses any say around the negotiation or approval of the final deal. If May gave ground on that she’d get the Labour votes she needs.
The DUP weren't a million miles off backing May yesterday.
Why do people do this. Have a massive defeat. Hype themselves up. Try again. Get shocked at another massive defeat.
Hope springs eternal. This latest version is the most baffling. MV2 there was at least, briefly, the prospect of something having changed, which people would have argued over but which would have given plenty of people a good reason to switch. Hell, a number switched even though the core advice had not changed. But having stood their ground even with the threat of no brexit mere days away because the WA and associated issues had not changed or been reinterpreted enough, in pinning their opposition to the deal on that basis, how can 75 MPs suddenly justify a switch?
The DUP weren't a million miles off backing May yesterday.
Why do people do this. Have a massive defeat. Hype themselves up. Try again. Get shocked at another massive defeat.
Read downthread. They weren't, I flagged it on Monday night before they made their call Tuesday that this was a major challenge for them on saying yes or no. As it is, the chances that they will make the difference either way, as of now, are small.
If the deal is to go through it requires them saying Yes. If they say Yes that swings it by 20 (10 less No, 10 more Yes). 50-60 Tories of the 75 who voted No would probably vote Yes if the DUP did. That leaves 5-15 more to find.
Its more that I am not sure the Conservative numbers would get to the point where the DUP will be the difference anyway.
The DUP weren't a million miles off backing May yesterday.
Why do people do this. Have a massive defeat. Hype themselves up. Try again. Get shocked at another massive defeat.
Hope springs eternal. This latest version is the most baffling. MV2 there was at least, briefly, the prospect of something having changed, which people would have argued over but which would have given plenty of people a good reason to switch. Hell, a number switched even though the core advice had not changed. But having stood their ground even with the threat of no brexit mere days away because the WA and associated issues had not changed or been reinterpreted enough, in pinning their opposition to the deal on that basis, how can 75 MPs suddenly justify a switch?
Same as would have caused a change this week. A meaningful change to the backstop satisfying the AG and DUP.
Its not going to happen though. Parliament has shot the hostage.
The DUP weren't a million miles off backing May yesterday.
Why do people do this. Have a massive defeat. Hype themselves up. Try again. Get shocked at another massive defeat.
Hope springs eternal. This latest version is the most baffling. MV2 there was at least, briefly, the prospect of something having changed, which people would have argued over but which would have given plenty of people a good reason to switch. Hell, a number switched even though the core advice had not changed. But having stood their ground even with the threat of no brexit mere days away because the WA and associated issues had not changed or been reinterpreted enough, in pinning their opposition to the deal on that basis, how can 75 MPs suddenly justify a switch?
Mays plan is to sow chaos and fear and blackmail people into a majority. Tragic really.
Are we seriously talking about turning around 75 votes in the next few days? I understand the consensus on here is for Mays Deal. But is that really feasible? The ERG, DUP and hordes of Labour rebels have been confidently predicted many, many times. Meanwhile the PM seems to do everything she can to alienate anyone not on the Brexit fringe.
I think you've hit something here...May needs to charm and cajole people- her approach is anything but. A Ken Clarke would have got the deal through....
Ken Clarke wouldn't have started from here. On which point, all these calculations for MV3 neglect switchers the other way. Ken was exasperated this evening after the vote. Why should he keep voting for a deal he clearly doesn't favour out of loyalty to the PM, when those who do favour it won't? Especially when they get messed around like tonight?
A summary of part of Cox's opinion. ..."if there is a failure because of “intractable differences” then the UK has no lawful means of unilaterally ending the backstop protocol."
But I am pleased to heat we pay nothing during the backstop period, assuming we ever get there. Does that mean free use of the Customs union and single market and no FOM?
Yes. It wasn't a bad deal.
I have to admit I have come round to TM deal it’s a lot better than the lazy mps realise , and the backstop actually has some benefits to the uk giving us frictionless trade without having to pay in and no fom. It’s probably the best we can get for now , dup and erg need to grow up and think about the good of the country and concentrate on destroying Marxist Corbyn
Was the backstop bigged up as more of a problem than really is. Correct me where wrong, you agree a trade partnership in the time frame, backstop goes into dustbin unused. If you don’t agree deal in the time limit, and its hunky bit of time then since A50 invoked, rather than go into controversial backstop there could be further less controversial time extension instead?
I think there was too much Brexiteer posturing about May’s hideous Chequers deal when she signed it, the ranters came to believe in their own rhetoric. And secretive, controlling, supercilious way May conducts negotiation May have contributed to the atmosphere too.
The problem is that the backstop is like a loaded pistol pointed at the UK's head. Our only way out is to sign whatever the EU gives us.
And the fact they're negotiating that way now before we leaves and while we [theoretically] have the option to walk away betrays how they'll negotiate once we're hogtied to the backstop.
Hold on, I thought the fear was that we'd be held in against our will and the EU would not negotiate any deal?
No I've never thought that. The EU will "negotiate" a deal in the same way as they "negotiated" the withdrawal agreement.
'This is the deal, this is the dotted line, sign here please. We can wait.'
Any ISDS style disputes to be settled by Europe probably the ECJ. It will be completely one-sided and be like the US's dominance of NAFTA but on steroids. Because if we don't sign it, they keep us in the backstop.
That would clearly be acting in bad faith in which case we walk away.
I'm really confused as to why May whipped the vote against the motion. I thought she had come out as on balance in favour of extension in preference to no deal for the sake of the precious Union, but then she didn't seem to care so much about the Union by whipping the vote in that way. What gives?
Wasn't it (maybe) because she still has hopes of presenting the House of Commons with a Deal/No Deal choice in April, and therefore wanted to rule out No Deal only in March?
The DUP weren't a million miles off backing May yesterday.
Why do people do this. Have a massive defeat. Hype themselves up. Try again. Get shocked at another massive defeat.
Hope springs eternal. This latest version is the most baffling. MV2 there was at least, briefly, the prospect of something having changed, which people would have argued over but which would have given plenty of people a good reason to switch. Hell, a number switched even though the core advice had not changed. But having stood their ground even with the threat of no brexit mere days away because the WA and associated issues had not changed or been reinterpreted enough, in pinning their opposition to the deal on that basis, how can 75 MPs suddenly justify a switch?
Mays plan is to sow chaos and fear and blackmail people into a majority. Tragic really.
It's her only move, I'm not surprised she's making it if no one will remove her. I am stunned that even our rigid party system, while creaking badly under the strain, is likely to hold up even if another confidence vote occurs, and so everyone hates what she is doing and yet encourage her to keep doing it by not forcing her out. Her Cabinet are just as bad, leaking all the time about disagreeing with various things, but if they felt that way they'd quit.
People keep being astonished that she won't quit, that she keeps doing the same things, but she's not being secretive about that, they should not be surprised. By implication they back that by doing nothing, same as Labour MPs crying theatrically about Corbyn while they try to make him PM.
Three more Tories on Peston saying they won't change their mind on any third vote.
No worries, there's dozens of Labour Mps who will do it. Hundreds! You'll see.
One thing we have learned with the recent votes is that unless some explicitly lets it be know they have changed their mind then they almost certainly have not, so no 'if X goes it could mean many more' garbage, it's cold, hard calculation of who is on record as saying they've switched.
So far it may be about the same number who have intimated they might switch the other way!
People are talking like everything's stuck, but everything isn't stuck. It was stuck, but now it's unstuck and we're getting to the endgame. TMay just changed her position on an extension, so she no longer plans to try to vandalize the EU elections. So the next moves are:
* MPs vote for an extension, which will pass * At some point (I'm not sure when) MPs vote a Deal vs Remain referendum. If this passes the EU will almost definitely agree the extension, the voters vote and you have Deal or Remain, either gets you out of the treacle. * If this hasn't happened and doesn't look like it will then we have to see whether the 27 agree an extension, which is a risk (unanimity, declared anti-faffing stances etc) but they probably will since the alternative is to set the British and Irish economies on fire, and if you recently spilled some petrol in your house, you really don't want to see what happens if your neighbour's house catches on fire. Once they do this you repeat indefinitely, so it's Gimp Remain. * At any point during the above the ERG and DUP can kill the Remainist outcomes by voting for TMay's deal.
So the ERG almost certainly aren't going to win, but they also retain the ability to take a draw, and I don't think there's any particular downside for them to continuing to play until they're one move away from losing.
Evening all. I've been busy drinking some serious Riojas but I see there has been some drama tonight.
Does anyone know how Sporting Index settled the market on the number of Ayes on the no-deal motion? I didn't have a position but last time I looked it was priced at something like 395-405. But that was before the Spelman/Cooper amendment and the switch by the government to whipping against, so I'm curious to know if it was settled at 321 or voided.
People are talking like everything's stuck, but everything isn't stuck. It was stuck, but now it's unstuck and we're getting to the endgame. TMay just changed her position on an extension, so she no longer plans to try to vandalize the EU elections. So the next moves are:
* MPs vote for an extension, which will pass * At some point (I'm not sure when) MPs vote a Deal vs Remain referendum. If this passes the EU will almost definitely agree the extension, the voters vote and you have Deal or Remain, either gets you out of the treacle. * If this hasn't happened and doesn't look like it will then we have to see whether the 27 agree an extension, which is a risk (unanimity, declared anti-faffing stances etc) but they probably will since the alternative is to set the British and Irish economies on fire, and if you recently spilled some petrol in your house, you really don't want to see what happens if your neighbour's house catches on fire. Once they do this you repeat indefinitely, so it's Gimp Remain. * At any point during the above the ERG and DUP can kill the Remainist outcomes by voting for TMay's deal.
So the ERG almost certainly aren't going to win, but they also retain the ability to take a draw, and I don't think there's any particular downside for them to continuing to play until they're one move away from losing.
That hangs on the assumption that the EU will agree an extension for no reason and then keep doing it, which is pretty much the opposite of what they're saying.
That hangs on the assumption that the EU will agree an extension for no reason and then keep doing it, which is pretty much the opposite of what they're saying.
Correct.
I'm assuming they're not going to fuck over Ireland and their own voters for no discernible benefit or principle. But some of them currently are saying they are, and I only need to be wrong about one out of 27 for the whole thing to go up in flames.
BTW, the ridiculousness of 'senior backbencher' and so on to refer to various MPs people probably won't have heard of is well established, but 'Senior ERG MP' as used to refer to Simon Clarke has to be an order of magnitude even more ridiculous. They have a Chair, Deputy Chair, a Whip, and he's not even a veteran MP IIRC, but he's a 'Senior ERG MP'?
Just once I want an MP, on twitter or in an interview, when referred to as a senior something or other, respond with 'Actually, I'm a bit of a non-entity, just a run of the mill hard working constituency MP' or something.
Are we seriously talking about turning around 75 votes in the next few days? I understand the consensus on here is for Mays Deal. But is that really feasible? The ERG, DUP and hordes of Labour rebels have been confidently predicted many, many times. Meanwhile the PM seems to do everything she can to alienate anyone not on the Brexit fringe.
I think you've hit something here...May needs to charm and cajole people- her approach is anything but. A Ken Clarke would have got the deal through....
Ken Clarke wouldn't have started from here. On which point, all these calculations for MV3 neglect switchers the other way. Ken was exasperated this evening after the vote. Why should he keep voting for a deal he clearly doesn't favour out of loyalty to the PM, when those who do favour it won't? Especially when they get messed around like tonight?
Clarke’s main reason for voting for the deal is that he’s not a chaos agent, but arguably now parliament has voted against no deal, and the government has said it will seek an extension, he can vote against with a clear conscience.
Comments
The Confederacy is a load of b***ocks as a suggestion.
Only the customs union part of the backstop is all-UK iirc. We later (sort-of) committed to keep the rest of the UK in single market alignment to avoid divergence though, as a sop to the DUP.
That's - there's no way or nothing the EU could ever offer to overcome that, unless they literally had the option of overruling them and taking direct control. Which is sort of the exact opposite of what Leavers say they want.
Your issue lies not with the Deal. Or any Deal. Or No Deal. Or Remain. It lies with the UK Parliament and UK Government.
The power is literally in the hands of the UK Government. What exactly is it that you're after from Brexit?
No?
Thought Not.
This PM, this Government, this Tory Party are a total, utter and unequivocal fecking shambles.
If May’s deal does pass next week I think it will be really tight. would there be the same momentum of the deal being very different, and how does that get DUP onside? Only 3 labour supported yesterday. To what degree could both wings of the Conservative parliamentary contingent be squeezed right down to next to nothing, headbangers will still be headbangers, remainiacs and people vote supporters may even be energised and in greater numbers after subsequent events, for example Ken Clarke supported May this week would he still do so next week?
There seems a push now for Parliament to rally around a soft brexit common market 2 compromise. Personally to listen to parliamentarians talk excitedly about Norway style vassalage dismays me, thats clearly a worse place for Great Britain than hard brexit or remain imo.
I think May or successor will choose GE rather than people’s vote. However, if, and its still if, Mays WA isn’t passed then a May’s WA voted through subject to being put to the people could be a further option. I think that is the outcome I will place my money on.
What is disturbing is, given these revelations, that Boris should choose today to declare the whole thing to be a waste of money.
The problem with the backstop is that the EU will not let us out because they can force us to pay £10 billion per year, except that there's no payment in the backstop, but it's that they can force us into an extension of the withdrawal period, but such an extension is unilaterally vetoable from either side but that the UK Government will voluntarily choose to extend the withdrawal period and the fact that they could do that is what's so unacceptable.
(We haven't yet got to the fact that the withdrawal period can only be extended once for a maximum of two years in any case, but I'm sure there's a good reason that it will still end up with us being forced somehow to be paying the EU loads of money forever and that's why they'll force us into... well, something.
Meanwhile the irony of May asking Parliament to vote over and over on the same proposition.
The House of Commons was a Benny Hill chase on acid, running through a Salvador Dali painting in a spaceship on its way to mad infinity and beyond"
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-no-deal-article-50-mp-parliament-vote-a8821991.html
Note final part of thread - May will need more Labour rebels even if most of ERG fall in line.
Although there has been a lot of talk about things being f*cked.
On Monday night I mentioned that the concessions that May brought back would prove challenging for the DUP to outright reject and that they genuinely hadn't called their decision in the immediate few hours after. What someone this side of the water mentioned to me earlier was that what really swung it for them was 1) the Attorney General's statement which acted as a sound fig leaf but more important was 2) they gauged enough feedback that the ERG types wouldn't buy in for it to have a chance before they put their statement out. In short they let the ERG act as a human shield.
I think there was too much Brexiteer posturing about May’s hideous Chequers deal when she signed it, the ranters came to believe in their own rhetoric. And secretive, controlling, supercilious way May conducts negotiation May have contributed to the atmosphere too.
When converters get that extreme about how bad their former party is, it just makes them look stupid for not going sooner. Same thing with Carswell, getting more and more elaborate about how bad things had been, raising the question of how he stayed so long.
Personally I think the deal is dead and we're going to remain by way of revocation.
I understand the consensus on here is for Mays Deal. But is that really feasible?
The ERG, DUP and hordes of Labour rebels have been confidently predicted many, many times.
Meanwhile the PM seems to do everything she can to alienate anyone not on the Brexit fringe.
Observation. The minister George Eustice, a leaver, resigned recently in advance of these votes, presumably as he anticipated difficulty holding to the Govt position. That action looks pretty honourable compared to the remainer Cabinet Ministers who did not support the Govt this evening. Implications for them (Rudd, Gauke etc) in the next leader markets?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum_by_constituency
Regrettable though it is a lot of the ERGers, and the DUP, really do mean that they will never vote for the deal, no matter what happens as a result. And as for the Labour rebels, a handful are on record as for, a handful as maybes, it is clearly just bluster.
And if she believes differently about Brexit generally, in anything other than scale of catastrophe, I'll eat my hat.
And the fact they're negotiating that way now before we leaves and while we [theoretically] have the option to walk away betrays how they'll negotiate once we're hogtied to the backstop.
In terms of amending Brexit date I believe someone linked to the withdrawal act and suggested a minister can do it for at least a time (assuming the EU agree)?
And, to be fair to those named, it was a Free Vote right up to literally seconds before it was whipped. Not much time to resign.
That they haven't been fired shows how utterly, utterly powerless the PM is.
It feels to me like we are in our Red double-decker bus nearing the chasm.
The government believed that their bridge / deal would take us safely to the other side of that chasm, into a different place. The ERG believe that we need no bridge and will safely jump over to the sunlit uplands. Parliament are screaming about the chasm, have refused to let the driver use the bridge and are arguing about what new type of bridge we need, whether we can loop round and try again or put the brakes on.
However the bus is still heading for the chasm, we are running out of time and the driver keeps pointing ahead and saying "make your mind up please".
I now think we will go over the edge. Not because the majority want it but because they can't act together to agree on a viable alternative. So yes, the ERG will win.
So many ifs in there. Quite. Optimism for the deal seems inevitable and infectious in the immediate shock that May has not yet been destroyed (officially at any rate) by the latest humiliating loss.
'This is the deal, this is the dotted line, sign here please. We can wait.'
Any ISDS style disputes to be settled by Europe probably the ECJ. It will be completely one-sided and be like the US's dominance of NAFTA but on steroids. Because if we don't sign it, they keep us in the backstop.
Although the spin to suggest ministers can abstain and not be sacked is risible. An opposition leader would be soundly mocked for a frontbencher on their side doing that.
https://twitter.com/niallodoc/status/1105956907280416768?s=21
How shit must they be?
Lucy Powell = Manc Central
No my mistake - see above!
Its not going to happen though. Parliament has shot the hostage.
On which point, all these calculations for MV3 neglect switchers the other way.
Ken was exasperated this evening after the vote. Why should he keep voting for a deal he clearly doesn't favour out of loyalty to the PM, when those who do favour it won't?
Especially when they get messed around like tonight?
People keep being astonished that she won't quit, that she keeps doing the same things, but she's not being secretive about that, they should not be surprised. By implication they back that by doing nothing, same as Labour MPs crying theatrically about Corbyn while they try to make him PM. No worries, there's dozens of Labour Mps who will do it. Hundreds! You'll see.
One thing we have learned with the recent votes is that unless some explicitly lets it be know they have changed their mind then they almost certainly have not, so no 'if X goes it could mean many more' garbage, it's cold, hard calculation of who is on record as saying they've switched.
So far it may be about the same number who have intimated they might switch the other way!
* MPs vote for an extension, which will pass
* At some point (I'm not sure when) MPs vote a Deal vs Remain referendum. If this passes the EU will almost definitely agree the extension, the voters vote and you have Deal or Remain, either gets you out of the treacle.
* If this hasn't happened and doesn't look like it will then we have to see whether the 27 agree an extension, which is a risk (unanimity, declared anti-faffing stances etc) but they probably will since the alternative is to set the British and Irish economies on fire, and if you recently spilled some petrol in your house, you really don't want to see what happens if your neighbour's house catches on fire. Once they do this you repeat indefinitely, so it's Gimp Remain.
* At any point during the above the ERG and DUP can kill the Remainist outcomes by voting for TMay's deal.
So the ERG almost certainly aren't going to win, but they also retain the ability to take a draw, and I don't think there's any particular downside for them to continuing to play until they're one move away from losing.
Does anyone know how Sporting Index settled the market on the number of Ayes on the no-deal motion? I didn't have a position but last time I looked it was priced at something like 395-405. But that was before the Spelman/Cooper amendment and the switch by the government to whipping against, so I'm curious to know if it was settled at 321 or voided.
I'm assuming they're not going to fuck over Ireland and their own voters for no discernible benefit or principle. But some of them currently are saying they are, and I only need to be wrong about one out of 27 for the whole thing to go up in flames.
Just once I want an MP, on twitter or in an interview, when referred to as a senior something or other, respond with 'Actually, I'm a bit of a non-entity, just a run of the mill hard working constituency MP' or something.