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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of nex

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”

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  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,301
    edited March 14
    Second like Corbyn at the next GE.

    I’m making no predictions as to first, mind.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,570
    edited March 14
    2nd after he who must be obeyed.

    edit: bugger.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928
    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,610
    This is hardly surprising. The government has collapsed. It's just that there is no apparent desire to push it over and some apprehension about what comes next. But we can't go on like this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861
    Until Brexit is resolved a general election solves nothing and an election campaign takes us well past Brexit day and the Commons had to make a decision both on an extension and as the EU will demand what it wants to do with an extension of Article 50 before then
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861
    edited March 14
    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    HYUFD said:

    Until Brexit is resolved a general election solves nothing and an election campaign takes us well past Brexit day and the Commons had to make a decision both on an extension and as the EU will demand what it wants to do with an extension of Article 50 before then

    Agree - a GE just now is impossible with neither of the two main parties having a settled view on brexit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,610
    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
  • I’m greatly reassured that so many Leavers are coming to the same conclusion on the ERG that I’ve had for many years.

    Next you’ll be backing Remain in a future referendum.

    On topic the question is now how many of the ERG VONC the government not if.

    A divided party will get gubbed at a general election.

    We’re getting the double whammy of a No Deal and a Corbyn government.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    It’s already broken by May. Boris is the party’s best hope. It won’t be the same party, but it’s about the last roll of the dice.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 236
    It is very hard to see what a GE could possibly resolve. In ordinary times they are blunt instruments for doing anything more than the useful task of establishing which of two moderate centrist groups will form the government. But now a choice would be between two parties both of which are hopelessly split over key matters in ways which are poisonous and dangerous. Convincing alternatives do not abound.

    Brexit lethally combines broad brush idealisms of various flavours with diabolically difficult detail of the sort generally left to people in the engine room and out of sight; they are obviously beyond the grasp of a good number of our MPs. This isn't going to change.

    So, to either centrist Brexiteers or centrist Remainers, (ie most of us) what could a GE usefully achieve?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,610

    I’m greatly reassured that so many Leavers are coming to the same conclusion on the ERG that I’ve had for many years.

    Next you’ll be backing Remain in a future referendum.

    On topic the question is now how many of the ERG VONC the government not if.

    A divided party will get gubbed at a general election.

    We’re getting the double whammy of a No Deal and a Corbyn government.

    The ERG voting against the government in a VONC solves the problem because it removes them as candidates. I doubt even they will be that stupid although they continue to astonish me.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,855
    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928

    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this

    Sky, never wrong for long.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    It’s already broken by May. Boris is the party’s best hope. It won’t be the same party, but it’s about the last roll of the dice.
    He will see many leave to TIG and have no party left to lead
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,610
    Scott_P said:
    This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    And BINO or revoke or No Deal won't? With the arrival of TIG the main parties are breaking anyway and the anti Boris lot can go there
  • DavidL said:

    I’m greatly reassured that so many Leavers are coming to the same conclusion on the ERG that I’ve had for many years.

    Next you’ll be backing Remain in a future referendum.

    On topic the question is now how many of the ERG VONC the government not if.

    A divided party will get gubbed at a general election.

    We’re getting the double whammy of a No Deal and a Corbyn government.

    The ERG voting against the government in a VONC solves the problem because it removes them as candidates. I doubt even they will be that stupid although they continue to astonish me.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,214
    alex. said:

    Would this or similar be getting voted on today (Thursday) or is the timing of the next referendum vote still undecided?



    PS Lovely and vague about the kind of referendum involved...

    It’s drafted to put Corbyn on the spot, because it doesn’t rule out the referendum happening after a general election in which a Labour government decides which Brexit deal to put as the Leave option.

    Would this or similar be getting voted on today (Thursday) or is the timing of the next referendum vote still undecided?



    PS Lovely and vague about the kind of referendum involved...

    It’s drafted to put Corbyn on the spot, because it doesn’t rule out the referendum happening after a general election in which a Labour government decides which Brexit deal to put as the Leave option.
    It's drafted as it is because the People's Vote campaign still hasn't resolved the central flaw in their whole plan - nothing to put against Remain on the ballot paper. And until they answer that it can't happen. They want "Remain" against "remain" ie. the only purpose is to give cover for "revoke".

    The other day Barnier commented that the debate showed that many MPs don't seem to grasp that "no deal" does not get a transition period. Less mentioned is his comment that they don't understand that the withdrawal agreement is not the future trading relationship. All those going on about "permanent customs union" or "Norway" or "Switzerland" or whatever are guilty of that. They are all questions for the future trading discussions. They still require the withdrawal agreement to pass. And since the political declaration is not legally binding, its present wording does not determine the future trading relationship.
    All true, but we're going into Brexit without a clue on our preferred direction, or even the selected least bad option. The WA requires a de facto permanent backstop with the EU, but does this mean no divergence or NI in special status? People want reasonably to know which it is. And it would be good to level with people that it will be permanent. Beyond NI all the issues of relationship with the EU and third countries are completely unresolved at the point of leaving
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,579
    I'm happily betting against a 2019 general election. One might happen but since neither side would be able to put together a coherent manifesto on the most pressing matter that commanded consensus support among the bulk of its candidates and since it would be most unlikely to resolve anything, it's only going to happen by accident or if someone is very stupid.

    So a reasonable high chance, but less than the odds suggest.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,439
    notme2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hold on..
    Does that mean parliament doesn’t want the WA, doesn’t want No Deal, and the chances are that parliament might vote to block extension?

    The only two course of action from that are a GE or further referendum?
    No.The issue now is whether parliament now passes an amendment to the Act of Parliament still on the statute book that says we leave on 29th March. It could do so by revoking A50 or by accepting an agreement with the EU to extend the 29th March date. For the latter, I have no doubt that the EU will be confident enough to offer much more onerous terms than it would have done if last night's vote had gone the other way.

    Even if the Government falls in a vote of confidence, that primary legislation is still there if nothing more is done, and so we are still on course to leave in 2 weeks time.

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/03/14/leaving-without-a-withdrawal-agreement-remains-the-default-position/


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    It’s already broken by May. Boris is the party’s best hope. It won’t be the same party, but it’s about the last roll of the dice.
    He will see many leave to TIG and have no party left to lead
    I doubt it, some might leave, you might leave, but the majority will stay. The party that remains will start to feel good about itself.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,038
    edited March 14
    Betting Post

    F1: Backed Bottas at 17 (19 with boost) each way, fifth the odds top 3, to be the fastest qualifier.

    The Ferraris and Hamilton are all bobbling around 3. If any one of them has an off day, or Bottas has a good day, or mechanical issues come into play, he's very likely (assuming Red Bull haven't sandbagged superbly) to end up in the top 3.

    Whilst I think he's right to have longer odds, they're too long, I think.

    Edited extra bit: just seen that Charlie Whiting, race director, has died suddenly. RIP.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47564762
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,342

    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this

    Well big picture, there's a lot of people who want to leave the EU but have no interest whatever in the details. It looks like May is battling to get us out in the face of opposition. Not many people have negotiated an international treaty but most of us have had to put up with awkward and negative workmates.
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.
    Stopping a No Deal Brexit honours the referendum result.

    My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,610

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252
    Well given that the government can't pass the key plank of their program, an election is the usual way out. But the two main parties are completely split on the main issue of the day, they'll never agree what to put in a manifesto that satisfies all their candidates and makes them accountable once elected.

    I think we're certainly looking at a vote of confidence going down in the next week or two, and either a new PM (Gove, Cox? Still doesn't change the numbers though) or a forced election.

    I think the only thing that holds off an election is No Deal on 29th March, which will most likely result in a short government of unity to sort out the immediate problems - before an election afterwards, probably in the autumn.

    tl:dr 2019 is IMO value at odds-against.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,405
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    For about the thousandth time, you do not get to “SM,CU and BINO” without voting for the withdrawal agreement. The WA is the WA, the rest is the future trading Agreement.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,947
    We, the people, are hypocrites really.

    We demand the meat but are disgusted by what goes on in the abattoir.

    We demand a result but are disgusted by the bloody mess in parliament.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    It’s already broken by May. Boris is the party’s best hope. It won’t be the same party, but it’s about the last roll of the dice.
    Nah, if Boris is the answer you're definitely asking the wrong question.
  • DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    All candidates have to be confirmed by their associations. Some sitting members are going to have some difficulty with this.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,428

    DavidL said:

    I’m greatly reassured that so many Leavers are coming to the same conclusion on the ERG that I’ve had for many years.

    Next you’ll be backing Remain in a future referendum.

    On topic the question is now how many of the ERG VONC the government not if.

    A divided party will get gubbed at a general election.

    We’re getting the double whammy of a No Deal and a Corbyn government.

    The ERG voting against the government in a VONC solves the problem because it removes them as candidates. I doubt even they will be that stupid although they continue to astonish me.
    They could no-confidence her and she'd still be PM and go back to Brussels for an extension. If they'd brought down her government that would actually make it easier to get.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,044

    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this

    Ser Jorah will never forsake his Khaleesi.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252

    Betting Post

    F1: Backed Bottas at 17 (19 with boost) each way, fifth the odds top 3, to be the fastest qualifier.

    The Ferraris and Hamilton are all bobbling around 3. If any one of them has an off day, or Bottas has a good day, or mechanical issues come into play, he's very likely (assuming Red Bull haven't sandbagged superbly) to end up in the top 3.

    Whilst I think he's right to have longer odds, they're too long, I think.

    That's a good price, but I remember Bottas binned it in Q3 last year. In for half a stake e/w (and I'm going to keep a spreadsheet of F1 bets this year).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,944
    nico67 said:

    The country has gone mad .

    Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .

    And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .

    And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.

    That's because these people are fucktards
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 6,200
    algarkirk said:

    It is very hard to see what a GE could possibly resolve. In ordinary times they are blunt instruments for doing anything more than the useful task of establishing which of two moderate centrist groups will form the government. But now a choice would be between two parties both of which are hopelessly split over key matters in ways which are poisonous and dangerous. Convincing alternatives do not abound.

    Brexit lethally combines broad brush idealisms of various flavours with diabolically difficult detail of the sort generally left to people in the engine room and out of sight; they are obviously beyond the grasp of a good number of our MPs. This isn't going to change.

    So, to either centrist Brexiteers or centrist Remainers, (ie most of us) what could a GE usefully achieve?

    Correct. Even in a referendum you can't get the buggers to vote on the single issue ostensibly before them, they use it as a proxy for a VOC in the government, so it's hopeless having a GE and stipulating that it is *really* about brexit. People will vote about stuff like the dementia tax.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    I think the 39 switchers probably represent the centre of gravity among members. They may favour a hard Brexit, but not to the extent of favouring Remain over a softer Brexit. I think a pretty clear majority would like to see the WA passed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,610

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.
    Stopping a No Deal Brexit honours the referendum result.

    My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.
    No it doesn't. The vote was to leave. The argument is or should be how and on what terms not if.

    I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise. Your logic is that people were unable to recognise that there was a risk that we would be unable to come to a satisfactory deal with the EU. I just don't believe that. They may have thought the risk was much smaller than it has turned out but they must have realised that nothing was guaranteed except leaving.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,291
    Mr OGH,

    A good point. Jezza may get his wish, and might end up rueing the day.

    Mr Mark,

    FPT, "Of course, Labour could end "country has gone mad" within the hour, by saying that it will vote for May's Deal for the good of the country. I hope you are making that case to them, forcefully"

    Labour are drifting slowly down in the polls, and many are pointing at the anti-Semite controversy. Around here, I've yet to hear anyone comment on antisemitism but they're queuing up to complain about MPs thinking only about party advantage and not the country.

    Jezza's been rumbled. Mrs May is as useful as a chocolate fireguard but they're giving her credit for trying even if they don't agree with her. Odd, but there you go.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,152
    Every day is groundhog day for the next two years....

    Remaining would be better than that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,633
    I guess this evening the government ill whip against its own motion on an A50 extension if the motion is amended.

    Also, it seems that Hammond has been trying to explain that he voted against ruling out No Deal because he is totally opposed to leaving without a deal. And we let this guy near money.

    How I yearn for the days when the Tories were just plain old nasty. Now they are nasty and incompetent.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,831
    edited March 14
    FPT
    nico67 said:

    The country has gone mad .

    Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .

    And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .

    And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.

    For the death culters chaos is catharsis.

    This could be Mark Francois:

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,035
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    It’s already broken by May. Boris is the party’s best hope. It won’t be the same party, but it’s about the last roll of the dice.
    Nah, if Boris is the answer you're definitely asking the wrong question.
    I rather suspect he is asking how best to shatter the Tory party.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,579
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.
    Stopping a No Deal Brexit honours the referendum result.

    My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.
    No it doesn't. The vote was to leave. The argument is or should be how and on what terms not if.

    I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise. Your logic is that people were unable to recognise that there was a risk that we would be unable to come to a satisfactory deal with the EU. I just don't believe that. They may have thought the risk was much smaller than it has turned out but they must have realised that nothing was guaranteed except leaving.
    A no deal Brexit would be a complete betrayal of the referendum result. Leave won by campaigning on hosing us with money and shutting out immigrants, while telling the country that it would be easy as pie to negotiate by precisely the people who are now telling the country that it should crash into the wall of no deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,804
    CD13 said:

    Mr OGH,

    A good point. Jezza may get his wish, and might end up rueing the day.

    Mr Mark,

    FPT, "Of course, Labour could end "country has gone mad" within the hour, by saying that it will vote for May's Deal for the good of the country. I hope you are making that case to them, forcefully"

    Labour are drifting slowly down in the polls, and many are pointing at the anti-Semite controversy. Around here, I've yet to hear anyone comment on antisemitism but they're queuing up to complain about MPs thinking only about party advantage and not the country.

    Jezza's been rumbled. Mrs May is as useful as a chocolate fireguard but they're giving her credit for trying even if they don't agree with her. Odd, but there you go.

    The voters will be brutal with those they think have played politics on Brexit. On all sides.

    We might even be saying "cheerio" to some ERG-ers who think they can dick around because they have safe seats.

    Which has a certain appeal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,038
    Mr. Sandpit, I've kept one for a while. It's a good idea.

    Been an iffy season or two for me, though. Almost ever since that fantastic Verstappen winning bet.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,944
    HYUFD said:

    Until Brexit is resolved a general election solves nothing and an election campaign takes us well past Brexit day and the Commons had to make a decision both on an extension and as the EU will demand what it wants to do with an extension of Article 50 before then

    Lets assume that happens. The Commons passes a motion to do Norway+. May will simply refuse to enact it. And if the House votes her in contempt nothing will happen like last time. And if the Commons tries a confidence vote the ERG will hug her tight and she will survive.

    It should be the case that a government found in contempt of parliament falls.
    It should be the case that a government whose major piece of legislation is massively rejected falls
    It should be the case that a government suffering open revolt inside the cabinet falls.

    But it won't fall. Because nobody wants to be the government until Brexit has happened. If we crash out on 29th March I expect an immediate VONC during the ensuing chaos where it does fall, and an election campaign where both parties are effectively a loose coalition of warring factions with opposing policies attacking the factions more than each other. So yes, an election this year. Perhaps Ian Blackford will be the next Prime Minister.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,291
    I'd welcome a GE on one condition. No current MP is allowed to stand. Get rid of the whole rotten lot, they've been seen to fail. Let's have a fresh lot, fucktards and all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Sandpit said:

    This is bound to upset someone:

    Northern Ireland's Public Prosecution Service will this morning announce if any individuals are to be charged in relation to the Bloody Sunday events in Derry in 1972.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2019/0314/1036267-bloody-sunday/

    I still don't understand this one I'm afraid, two decades after we let everyone involved in the Troubles out of prison and agreed to leave the past in the past.
    Yes, justice is very very Important but I too thought that many bad people on both sides were escaping justice as the price for peace. It's not as though those convicted now will get early release as part of the peace process will they? So it is not the same level of punishment being applied.
    IanB2 said:

    Government is promising "free vote" on the extension debate later today.

    Then again, they promised a free vote yesterday on no deal, then ended up denying it at the last minute..

    The motion was altered, whether one thought the alteration was ok or not I dont understand this confusion that having been amended the government would no longer back it. They promised a free vote on their wording and that got changed, they didn't go back on their word as you imply.
    Good stuff. Although I just say I wouldn't hire him to challenge that either, I understand him to be very expensive to hire.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,874
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
    I have always thought Brexit is pointless, but Remain is no longer a viable option, and there is no mandate for No Deal, because the electorate was promised there would be a deal by the shysters such as Boris Johnson.

    The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,708
    edited March 14
    This is exactly what I was thinking:

    "If you forgive the IRA, then you must forgive the Parachute Regiment too
    Lionel Shriver"


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/if-you-forgive-the-ira-then-you-must-forgive-the-parachute-regiment-too/
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,249

    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this

    Also seeing this on the doorstep.

    Explains how the Tory poll rating holds up.

    Most socialists I’ve met find Corbyn’s position laughable. Seriously.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,874
    AndyJS said:

    This is exactly what I was thinking:

    "If you forgive the IRA, then you must forgive the Parachute Regiment too
    Lionel Shriver"


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/if-you-forgive-the-ira-then-you-must-forgive-the-parachute-regiment-too/

    Amen. I say that as a half Irish Catholic.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
    I have always thought Brexit is pointless, but Remain is no longer a viable option, and there is no mandate for No Deal, because the electorate was promised there would be a deal by the shysters such as Boris Johnson.

    The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
    We have a deal - Parliament won't accept it. All it takes is the Remainer MPs to accept that the deal is the best way forward and it would carry Parliament. So don't blame Brexiteers for Remainer intransigence.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928
    Mortimer said:

    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this

    Also seeing this on the doorstep.

    Explains how the Tory poll rating holds up.

    Most socialists I’ve met find Corbyn’s position laughable. Seriously.
    So give the people a vote. You have nothing to lose.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
    I have always thought Brexit is pointless, but Remain is no longer a viable option, and there is no mandate for No Deal, because the electorate was promised there would be a deal by the shysters such as Boris Johnson.

    The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
    We have a deal - Parliament won't accept it. All it takes is the Remainer MPs to accept that the deal is the best way forward and it would carry Parliament. So don't blame Brexiteers for Remainer intransigence.
    It isn’t the best way forward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825

    I guess this evening the government ill whip against its own motion on an A50 extension if the motion is amended.
    .

    It might, and it might be completely reasonable. The objection to voting against the substantive motion yesterday seems to be that in essence they'd promised the vanilla motion would basically meet the intent of the amendment so why was the change enough to get them not to support it. But if an extension for x is changed to y and with a bunch of added conditions, why would it not be reasonable to whip against? It would be a substantially different motion.

    Theres much the government has done which is silly, but people are just looking for things to pretend are silly now. If its changed it's no longer the motion theyd said they would back.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,035
    edited March 14
    Mortimer said:

    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this

    Also seeing this on the doorstep.

    Explains how the Tory poll rating holds up.

    Most socialists I’ve met find Corbyn’s position laughable. Seriously.
    Yes, anecdotally I often hear the same. From a distance she is a decent woman struggling in an almost impossible position. Her strategic misjudgements are only really apparent to those following the story closely.

    The logic being of course that if the Tories turf her out they might be in for a shock from the polls following.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,874

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.
    Stopping a No Deal Brexit honours the referendum result.

    My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.
    No it doesn't. The vote was to leave. The argument is or should be how and on what terms not if.

    I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise. Your logic is that people were unable to recognise that there was a risk that we would be unable to come to a satisfactory deal with the EU. I just don't believe that. They may have thought the risk was much smaller than it has turned out but they must have realised that nothing was guaranteed except leaving.
    A no deal Brexit would be a complete betrayal of the referendum result. Leave won by campaigning on hosing us with money and shutting out immigrants, while telling the country that it would be easy as pie to negotiate by precisely the people who are now telling the country that it should crash into the wall of no deal.
    Indeed. As many of us have been saying a while, and also Mike said in one of his recent articles, there is no mandate whatsoever for a No Deal Brexit. Anyone who claims otherwise is lying.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,291
    Could Mrs May be an accidental Lt Columbo? Accidental in that she really doesn't know what she's doing, but stumbles on the only way out of this impasse?

    Her treaty passes, the EU acts in good faith and she is the heroine of the decade. The sun shines, and the flying pigs supply shade.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763

    FPT


    nico67 said:

    The country has gone mad .

    Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .

    And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .

    And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.

    For the death culters chaos is catharsis.

    This could be Mark Francois:

    I loved the look on the face of the Emperess.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    It’s already broken by May. Boris is the party’s best hope. It won’t be the same party, but it’s about the last roll of the dice.
    She didn't break it. She cant fix it. She put off even looking at the break as long as she could. She's help the break get wider. But she didn't cause it.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 504
    I still find it impossible to imagine what the Tory (and Labour, for that matter) manifesto would look like on Europe if that came to pass "in the current circumstances". If she was VONCed after the next "meaningful" vote, there would be chaos. Only the nuttiest Leaver wouldn't pause for thought on that.

    I find it unbelievable that she won't be at the wheel to take us over/steer clear of the cliff on Mar 29th.

    If we are in long extension or crashout territory on Mar 30th (or June 30th etc), I doubt it'll be long before she goes. But at least we're in *new* territory then, with a settled reality which has a fair chance of lasting beyond the election.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,874

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
    I have always thought Brexit is pointless, but Remain is no longer a viable option, and there is no mandate for No Deal, because the electorate was promised there would be a deal by the shysters such as Boris Johnson.

    The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
    We have a deal - Parliament won't accept it. All it takes is the Remainer MPs to accept that the deal is the best way forward and it would carry Parliament. So don't blame Brexiteers for Remainer intransigence.
    Oh, there was me thinking that the headbangers from the ERG and the DUP were against it, and it was those pesky "Remainers" who stopped it. Damn, must have missed that one.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,405

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
    I have always thought Brexit is pointless, but Remain is no longer a viable option, and there is no mandate for No Deal, because the electorate was promised there would be a deal by the shysters such as Boris Johnson.

    The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
    Again...

    May’s deal and Norway/Swiss are not mutually exclusive outcomes. They are two different things.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Tory GE supporters who think that is a solution baffle me more than the ERG. They at least might be acting on principle and what they seek in no deal is achievable. How is a GE a solution for the Tories? Seriously how? It's been gone over enough they couldn't agree on a policy or leader for it, so how do they see it helping the party?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 6,200
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.
    Stopping a No Deal Brexit honours the referendum result.

    My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.
    No it doesn't. The vote was to leave. The argument is or should be how and on what terms not if.

    I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise. Your logic is that people were unable to recognise that there was a risk that we would be unable to come to a satisfactory deal with the EU. I just don't believe that. They may have thought the risk was much smaller than it has turned out but they must have realised that nothing was guaranteed except leaving.
    No, the vote was advisory. That's what the Act says, and obiter dicta from anyone during the campaign don't alter that fact. Ignoring the advice altogether would dishonour the result, but that hasn't happened. Everyone has thought about nothing else for nearly three years so there is no case for saying it hasn't been carefully considered. "Sorry we've thought long and hard and concluded it can't be done" is now a perfectly sensible and democratic position to take.
  • O/T - Banner seen in München yesterday.


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,014
    alex. said:


    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
    I have always thought Brexit is pointless, but Remain is no longer a viable option, and there is no mandate for No Deal, because the electorate was promised there would be a deal by the shysters such as Boris Johnson.

    The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
    Again...

    May’s deal and Norway/Swiss are not mutually exclusive outcomes. They are two different things.
    And a Norway/Swiss style solution would still require the NI backstop.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    It’s already broken by May. Boris is the party’s best hope. It won’t be the same party, but it’s about the last roll of the dice.
    She didn't break it. She cant fix it. She put off even looking at the break as long as she could. She's help the break get wider. But she didn't cause it.
    The evidence is that she has broken it. Of course the cracks were there beforehand, but her approach to Brexit has created the biggest parliamentary defeat ever, made rebellion an accepted way of life so much so that cabinet ministers can rebel or say ‘fuck business’ and not get the sack and caused MPs to leave to create a new group. That is what breaking a party looks like and it was not inevitable.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,874
    Sean_F said:

    FPT


    nico67 said:

    The country has gone mad .

    Leavers ringing up radio stations saying MPs wanting to leave with a deal are betraying the public . So people not wanting to harm the country are now public enemy number one . Some MPs being called traitors for supporting Mays deal . It’s astonishing , now an orderly exit isn’t good enough and for some only complete carnage and a total rupture with the EU will do .

    And apparently this is what they voted for in 2016 , which is a disgraceful revisioning and clearly now the ERG death cult has instructed its followers they have followed like Borg drones trying to take the country over the cliff .

    And people wonder why Remainers might be just a little pissed off . Yes fine leave but for heavens sake do it sensibly with a deal.

    For the death culters chaos is catharsis.

    This could be Mark Francois:

    I loved the look on the face of the Emperess.
    Doesn't look fat or stupid enough.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,947
    Mortimer said:

    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this

    Also seeing this on the doorstep.

    Explains how the Tory poll rating holds up.

    Most socialists I’ve met find Corbyn’s position laughable. Seriously.
    I think that's right. May is holding up the Tory share and Corbyn is depressing the Labour share. It would be interesting to see a poll comparing leader satisfaction with party satisfaction.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.
    Stopping a No Deal Brexit honours the referendum result.

    My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.
    No it doesn't. The vote was to leave. The argument is or should be how and on what terms not if.

    I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise. Your logic is that people were unable to recognise that there was a risk that we would be unable to come to a satisfactory deal with the EU. I just don't believe that. They may have thought the risk was much smaller than it has turned out but they must have realised that nothing was guaranteed except leaving.
    A no deal Brexit would be a complete betrayal of the referendum result. Leave won by campaigning on hosing us with money and shutting out immigrants, while telling the country that it would be easy as pie to negotiate by precisely the people who are now telling the country that it should crash into the wall of no deal.
    Indeed. As many of us have been saying a while, and also Mike said in one of his recent articles, there is no mandate whatsoever for a No Deal Brexit. Anyone who claims otherwise is lying.
    My view is that the ERG's argument that only a No Deal Brexit honours the result is fallacious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    I think the 39 switchers probably represent the centre of gravity among members. They may favour a hard Brexit, but not to the extent of favouring Remain over a softer Brexit. I think a pretty clear majority would like to see the WA passed.
    Could have fooled me. Theres supposedly loads of people whod like to see it pass from all over the house, yet they take every action to avoid helping it pass.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252

    O/T - Banner seen in München yesterday.


    Very good. Were you there?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,855
    It’s no deal or, in practice:
    * A permanent customs union with the EU
    * Continued high levels of immigration (inevitable anyway, TIG)
    * The UK following almost all EU rules and regulations
    * Being a rule-taker, not a maker
    * No meaningful free trade agreements
    * No closer political union
    * No right to free movement
    * A healthier economic outlook
    * More we’ll-paid jobs
    * Higher levels of public spending
    Is that about it?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928

    It’s no deal or, in practice:
    * A permanent customs union with the EU
    * Continued high levels of immigration (inevitable anyway, TIG)
    * The UK following almost all EU rules and regulations
    * Being a rule-taker, not a maker
    * No meaningful free trade agreements
    * No closer political union
    * No right to free movement
    * A healthier economic outlook
    * More we’ll-paid jobs
    * Higher levels of public spending
    Is that about it?

    Pointless or Painful. You decide.
  • Sandpit said:

    O/T - Banner seen in München yesterday.


    Very good. Were you there?
    I was, thanks to Brexit.

    One of the Germans who I met as we set up a German subsidiary got me a ticket.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 1,874
    alex. said:


    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
    I have always thought Brexit is pointless, but Remain is no longer a viable option, and there is no mandate for No Deal, because the electorate was promised there would be a deal by the shysters such as Boris Johnson.

    The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
    Again...

    May’s deal and Norway/Swiss are not mutually exclusive outcomes. They are two different things.
    That is what I suggested. A 3 option vote, with a single transferable vote to ensure majority. Many Leave voters might find that mechanism a bit modern or downright confusing, but that is their problem.
  • Mortimer said:

    Sky reporting they are surprised how many are saying to their reporters how much they support TM and affirming that she is the only grown up in this

    Also seeing this on the doorstep.

    Explains how the Tory poll rating holds up.

    Most socialists I’ve met find Corbyn’s position laughable. Seriously.
    Believe it or not even though most people are regarded on this website as being 'pig-eyed ignorant' they can realise that Mrs May has an extremely difficult position to negotiate.

    Sky of course are coloured by their world-view that Brexit is stupid and anyone wanting to go down that route is insance.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,809
    algarkirk said:

    So, to either centrist Brexiteers or centrist Remainers, (ie most of us) what could a GE usefully achieve?

    Radio 5 had four small business owners/managers on their show this morning for a panel discussion, they had different views about Brexit, but none of them wanted a general election. It was the one thing they all emphatically agreed on.

    I would guess that most of the population wants Brexit sorted, before we give the politicians a well-deserved kicking at another general election.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    I think the 39 switchers probably represent the centre of gravity among members. They may favour a hard Brexit, but not to the extent of favouring Remain over a softer Brexit. I think a pretty clear majority would like to see the WA passed.
    Could have fooled me. Theres supposedly loads of people whod like to see it pass from all over the house, yet they take every action to avoid helping it pass.
    I meant members of the Conservative party, not members of Parliament.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,599
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolute tosh but presumably it makes you feel better about being undemocratic.
    Stopping a No Deal Brexit honours the referendum result.

    My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.
    No it doesn't. The vote was to leave. The argument is or should be how and on what terms not if.

    I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise. Your logic is that people were unable to recognise that there was a risk that we would be unable to come to a satisfactory deal with the EU. I just don't believe that. They may have thought the risk was much smaller than it has turned out but they must have realised that nothing was guaranteed except leaving.
    "They must have realised" ... you are elevating mind reading into a democratic principle - along with bait and switch.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,152
    CD13 said:

    I'd welcome a GE on one condition. No current MP is allowed to stand. Get rid of the whole rotten lot, they've been seen to fail. Let's have a fresh lot, fucktards and all.

    A general election is hugely problematic for both parties. Neither of them would have a cohesive policy on the EU.

    Worse for the tories of course, but labour would struggle too.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,146
    I'm trying to piece together how this progresses based on today's vote and May's Tuesday night statement:

    1. Today's vote: technical vote acknowledging and agreeing drivers for extension, but not forcing it. Amendment to full blown vote then rejection .possible.
    2. SIs removing No Deal default as much as practicable from UK legislation. (Gov whip for, poss Fri sitting?)
    3. MV3, acknowledging change of circumstances by removal of no deal
    4. If MV3 fails, indicative rule in/out votes on extension reasons - e.g further negotiation around current WA, switch to CU, Second Referendum on current options. Preferred option selected.
    (Here by 21/3!!!)
    5. Ask EU for extension, if fails.....
    6. MV4: explicitly stating that revocation will be result of MV4 failure.
    7. If MV4 passes, second request for technical extension. Surely granted!!

    Thoughts?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,242

    I’m greatly reassured that so many Leavers are coming to the same conclusion on the ERG that I’ve had for many years.

    Next you’ll be backing Remain in a future referendum.

    In the words of Rev Paisley.

    NEVER! NEVER! NEVER!

    :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories to benefit from a Boris Brexit Bounce?

    The likeliest Brexit outcome now is probably the Commons votes for extension and SM and Customs Union BINO, in which case Boris might be needed to stop Tory Leavers leaking to the Brexit Party and UKIP
    Boris breaks the conservative party.
    It’s already broken by May. Boris is the party’s best hope. It won’t be the same party, but it’s about the last roll of the dice.
    She didn't break it. She cant fix it. She put off even looking at the break as long as she could. She's help the break get wider. But she didn't cause it.
    The evidence is that she has broken it. Of course the cracks were there beforehand, but her approach to Brexit has created the biggest parliamentary defeat ever, made rebellion an accepted way of life so much so that cabinet ministers can rebel or say ‘fuck business’ and not get the sack and caused MPs to leave to create a new group. That is what breaking a party looks like and it was not inevitable.
    You've just made my point that she's helped make the break worse, without causing the break itself . Certainly it breaking right now in this way was not inevitable and her leadership has led to that, but it was going to happen sometime. The break is the irreconcilability of the factions coming to a crunch point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,014
    DavidL said:

    No it doesn't. The vote was to leave. The argument is or should be how and on what terms not if.

    I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise.

    It's not as absurd as you think. During the referendum campaign, Boris Johnson said we could Remain after a Leave vote, whereas neither Vote Leave, nor Leave EU ever said we would leave with no deal.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,855
    How will Johnson’s don’t investigate crimes once they’ve been committed stand go down with Tory MPs and members?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,152
    Pro_Rata said:

    I'm trying to piece together how this progresses based on today's vote and May's Tuesday night statement:

    1. Today's vote: technical vote acknowledging and agreeing drivers for extension, but not forcing it. Amendment to full blown vote then rejection .possible.
    2. SIs removing No Deal default as much as practicable from UK legislation. (Gov whip for, poss Fri sitting?)
    3. MV3, acknowledging change of circumstances by removal of no deal
    4. If MV3 fails, indicative rule in/out votes on extension reasons - e.g further negotiation around current WA, switch to CU, Second Referendum on current options. Preferred option selected.
    (Here by 21/3!!!)
    5. Ask EU for extension, if fails.....
    6. MV4: explicitly stating that revocation will be result of MV4 failure.
    7. If MV4 passes, second request for technical extension. Surely granted!!

    Thoughts?

    My brain hurts...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What the Conservative Party needs to think about very seriously is who their candidates are going to be for that GE. Re-electing the same idiots will, even if they win, produce the same result. This government had a policy on Brexit. It was not a very good policy but it was theirs and it reflected their manifesto. MPs who have consistently voted against that policy should not be allowed to stand for the party. Its really as simple as that.

    3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.

    The problem with that is that the ERG largely reflects the membership’s views and as the UKIP - read hard right English nationalist - tendency grows ever stronger that will only intensify. You only need to look at the actions of all the contenders to replace May to see which way the wind is blowing. The Conservative party has abandoned pro-business pragmatism for zealotry.

    Then the Tory party needs to split. But I think the majority remain pragmatic even if that is reflected in a soft Brexit rather than remaining.
    I have always thought Brexit is pointless, but Remain is no longer a viable option, and there is no mandate for No Deal, because the electorate was promised there would be a deal by the shysters such as Boris Johnson.

    The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
    We have a deal - Parliament won't accept it. All it takes is the Remainer MPs to accept that the deal is the best way forward and it would carry Parliament. So don't blame Brexiteers for Remainer intransigence.
    Oh, there was me thinking that the headbangers from the ERG and the DUP were against it, and it was those pesky "Remainers" who stopped it. Damn, must have missed that one.
    It's both, there are simply a lot fewer Tory remainers against, andxwhike the bulk of the rest are remainers and they should judge it on its merits, one would hardly expect opposition mps to back it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,038
    Mr. Glenn, he did say that, and many people (including me) pointed out that was an insane perspective (not least because he'd be advocating a course of action diametrically opposing that for which he was actually campaigning).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,831

    CD13 said:

    I'd welcome a GE on one condition. No current MP is allowed to stand. Get rid of the whole rotten lot, they've been seen to fail. Let's have a fresh lot, fucktards and all.

    A general election is hugely problematic for both parties. Neither of them would have a cohesive policy on the EU.

    Worse for the tories of course, but labour would struggle too.
    The cohesive policy would be May's Deal.

    Those who oppose it would not be Conservative candidates.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,307
    edited March 14
    So, a thought on MV3 (groan).

    We know, for instance, that some in the ERG, appear to be so purist/idiotic (take your pick, I know which one i’d go for) as to just keep voting against The Deal whether it means a long delay, no Brexit, the Earth crashing into the sun or whatever. I’m thinking Francois, how many others - maybe 10 in all?

    So that instantly wipes the Tory majority and with the DUP 10 voting against pretty much acts as a blocker. Would the odd Labour MP supporting mitigate for this? I’m doubtful. They only got 3 last time, but I guess it depends how much minds are concentrated.

    The key to unlocking all this seems to be somehow getting the DUP to at least abstain. Erm, answers on a postcard how Mrs May does that?
This discussion has been closed.