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  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?
    What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

    Seriously

    A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,
    A lot of very senior people in 2019 too. Where do people think all those worldwide missing children actually are and who is behind it? Notice the increase in human trafficking convictions lately?
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    One thing that gets missed a lot is that Scottish tories were elected on a different campaign than in England. The leaflets I posted did not mention brexit but were all on the union and Ruth Davidson. The right wing erg style tories in Scotland are the ones who risk deselection not Mundell who is basically untouchable. If he goes then the tories risk losing the Scottish Tory party entirely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    kle4 said:

    Farage can have a joint trial with Grieve.....
    Theyd deserve each other. Despicable individuals.
    I'd put them both inside with the sex offenders.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,743
    Morning all :)

    After yesterday's nonsense, interesting to see the more reflective mood of the morning from some. I saw part of the Ken Clarke interview on Sky - revocation followed by "another go" at A50 somewhere down the line. Maybe but where's the accountability for the last three wasted years? I also suspect the notion of having A50 hanging round like a bad smell isn't going to find favour with the EU either.

    We are 15 days from exiting without a Deal - the ERG are on the cusp of a victory of sorts as Cyclefree opined on the previous thread. The EU will have to decide what kind of extension we are going to get and I see a convergence between Clarke and Tusk around either revocation and a new application or a long extension of the existing A50 application.

    That might be the sensible approach but the political impact of this in the UK are much harder to gauge. To leave without leaving is going to cause a lot of people in the UK a lot of problems.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?
    What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

    Seriously

    So did Thatcher apparently.

    Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

    Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

    Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

    Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1
    I'm surprised that's never become a bigger scandal.
    it's about to be. How many more escaped scrutiny?

    Hopefully it is not too late to get at least a rough picture of whether (how many) of these people were actually paedophiles.
    The rumours and allegations were reported long ago in Gyles Brandreth's diaries. In 1991, Brandreth's constituents alleged to him that Morrison was 'a disgusting pervert' who was 'into little boys'. It couldn't be clearer could it? I assume this would have been edited out, had Morrison not died before the diaries were published.
    Back in 1987, I was warned by a Conservative agent never to be on my own with Peter Morrison.
  • Listening to the broadcast media this morning there does seem to be a coming together between conservative and labour mps around a Norway style brexit but in all the discussions a referendum seems to be disappearing from view
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    This would go down well...

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/03/14/business/britain-eyes-brexit-no-deal-trade-shift-china-eu/
    Britain’s shift of attention to China is most vividly displayed by the complete elimination of tariffs on its massive aluminum and steel mills.

    The benefits would also stretch to big metals producer Russia — a potentially sensitive issue considering the chilly state of London’s affairs with Moscow.

    U.K. steel producers would suffer in manufacturing cities that voted for Brexit and disproportionately feel the impact of the new trade approach....
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    edited March 2019

    CD13 said:

    Could Mrs May be an accidental Lt Columbo? Accidental in that she really doesn't know what she's doing, but stumbles on the only way out of this impasse?

    Her treaty passes, the EU acts in good faith and she is the heroine of the decade. The sun shines, and the flying pigs supply shade.

    She's impossible to read bit I think it's entirely possible that she knows exactly what she's doing. Remorselessly pushing every stupid thing that's demanded of her to its remorselessly stupid conclusion, then stretching out the moment of every failure until everyone can see how badly it's failed and how it couldn't possibly have worked. Meanwhile her party is still mostly intact, Labour is still at war, and her internal enemies look more ridiculous by the day.

    However this is obviously all reliant on her having a non-catastrophic endgame...
    Not perfect, but I think it holds up OK, in December 2017, I wrote....

    Let's step back a moment. We are saying that long standing, senior politicians are all incompetent fools. We knew about Boris and Fox's limitations, but TMay and Davis came in with some degree of reputation. Epigoni, perhaps, but not knowing that the DUP would scupper Monday's deal, I don't quite buy that.

    Remember, a couple weeks ago TMay got an exiting payment of 50bn past cabinet and party with barely a murmer of dissent. Think about that - had that looked remotely possible? It's a lot of money, a loss, but, in terms of political squaring, what an achievement!

    To me, May be is playing Brexit rather like Brucie ran Play Your Cards Right, his most formulaic and, for that very reason, one of his best loved shows. She adopts a sequence of ridiculous poses and catchphrases, to the pleasure of the different wings of her party, just long enough for everyone to see that they are ridiculous, before moving on to an inevitable end game. Thus she has postured on citizens rights, never a red line, yet made a 50bn exit, always a red line, possible.

    Of course, the election wasn't part of this plan, but it was a risque event that brought a newlywed's honeymoon to an excruciating end, thus introducing the current show.

    So, we are along the first row of the star prize board, cards offset in a shape that, if you squint, resembles Ireland. The catchphrases and postures keep coming as Brucie May steers her contestants to the end of the board. Two of the three barriers are surmounted as the end titles approach, but, of course, this is not a case of 2 out of 3 ain't bad. Will they win or will it be: you don't get anything for a pair, not in this game.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    Sky News: Beto running or Pres
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Daily Mail front page - "with the Prime Minister's authority in tatters..."

    Would never have happened under the previous editor.

    Although, I do hope those who have been hypocritical in their voting - telling their voters they would implement Brexit, voting for Article 50 and then blocking it - have a squeaky clean back story. Cuz I have a feeling the Mail is going to be having some fun gunning for them.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Listening to the broadcast media this morning there does seem to be a coming together between conservative and labour mps around a Norway style brexit but in all the discussions a referendum seems to be disappearing from view

    The question on the ballot asked if we wanted to leave the EU. A very soft Brexit satisfies this more than a second referendum or a massively long extension.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Listening to the broadcast media this morning there does seem to be a coming together between conservative and labour mps around a Norway style brexit but in all the discussions a referendum seems to be disappearing from view

    I think if it isn't May's deal then a Norway deal does seem likely. 2nd referendum and No deal appear to be getting less likely by the day as neither really represent a compromise.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Sky News: Beto running or Pres

    I'd completely forgotten about him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Pro_Rata said:

    CD13 said:

    Could Mrs May be an accidental Lt Columbo? Accidental in that she really doesn't know what she's doing, but stumbles on the only way out of this impasse?

    Her treaty passes, the EU acts in good faith and she is the heroine of the decade. The sun shines, and the flying pigs supply shade.

    She's impossible to read bit I think it's entirely possible that she knows exactly what she's doing. Remorselessly pushing every stupid thing that's demanded of her to its remorselessly stupid conclusion, then stretching out the moment of every failure until everyone can see how badly it's failed and how it couldn't possibly have worked. Meanwhile her party is still mostly intact, Labour is still at war, and her internal enemies look more ridiculous by the day.

    However this is obviously all reliant on her having a non-catastrophic endgame...
    Not perfect, but I think it holds up OK, in December 2017, I wrote....

    Let's step back a moment. We are saying that long standing, senior politicians are all incompetent fools. We knew about Boris and Fox's limitations, but TMay and Davis came in with some degree of reputation. Epigoni, perhaps, but not knowing that the DUP would scupper Monday's deal, I don't quite buy that.

    Remember, a couple weeks ago TMay got an exiting payment of 50bn past cabinet and party with barely a murmer of dissent. Think about that - had that looked remotely possible? It's a lot of money, a loss, but, in terms of political squaring, what an achievement!

    To me, May be is playing Brexit rather like Brucie ran Play Your Cards Right, his most formulaic and, for that very reason, one of his best loved shows. She adopts a sequence of ridiculous poses and catchphrases, to the pleasure of the different wings of her party, just long enough for everyone to see that they are ridiculous, before moving on to an inevitable end game. Thus she has postured on citizens rights, never a red line, yet made a 50bn exit, always a red line, possible.

    Of course, the election wasn't part of this plan, but it was a risque event that brought a newlywed's honeymoon to an excruciating end, thus introducing the current show.

    So, we are along the first row of the star prize board, cards offset in a shape that, if you squint, resembles Ireland. The catchphrases and postures keep coming as Brucie May steers her contestants to the end of the board. Two of the three barriers are surmounted as the end titles approach, but, of course, this is not a case of 2 out of 3 ain't bad. Will they win or will it be: you don't get anything for a pair, not in this game.
    "Ow's 'er reputation?"

    "Lower, lower!"

    "Higher, higher!"
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Sky News: Beto running or Pres

    Another one to try and be the one Trump crushes. Lol
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?
    What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

    Seriously

    A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,
    Exactly. There were all sorts of rumours about all sorts of people but it was not seen as a very serious issue. Jokes about priests and choirboys were commonplace, the idea that there was a massive cover-up is misplaced, everyone knew it went on but it was not deliberately covered up, it was just not seen as worthy of much attention unless it was particularly egregious. The modern contention that this kind of abuse has a permanent, lifetime impact would not have been given much credence.
    Yup, our parents warned me and my brother to stay away from certain localnpeople who were known/suspected as kiddy-fiddlers but it was pretty strongly implied that if we ignored those warnings and got abused, it’d be our own fault.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Listening to the broadcast media this morning there does seem to be a coming together between conservative and labour mps around a Norway style brexit but in all the discussions a referendum seems to be disappearing from view

    Except, "Norway" is a really shit outcome. What's the Article 50-equivalent of getting out of it?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Roger said:

    It's awful and a national fiasco.

    But I have to admit there are aspects of all of this that are very funny indeed.

    Yes. I keep thinking about the two years we couldn't be told anything because it would give away our negotiating position.........and then bursting into uncontrollable laughter.
    https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=yuou+tube+leg+over+with+johnson+and+aggers#id=5&vid=d22abe5f245bfcc3d4ada4f564fe9726&action=view
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    Brom said:

    He needs to focus on actually getting Spurs back in to Europe....
    Spurs fans think he's rubbish. Not the sharpest tool either!
    God help anyone who dares to cross the true believers.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    OllyT said:

    Brom said:

    He needs to focus on actually getting Spurs back in to Europe....
    Spurs fans think he's rubbish. Not the sharpest tool either!
    God help anyone who dares to cross the true believers.
    ???
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?
    What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

    Seriously

    A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,
    A lot of very senior people in 2019 too. Where do people think all those worldwide missing children actually are and who is behind it? Notice the increase in human trafficking convictions lately?
    A certain crazy Hollywod gossip column has printed lots of 'blind' stories of people trafficking over the last decade, most of which read like mad conspiracy theories but several have been vindicated by subsequent events.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    edited March 2019

    Sky News: Beto running or Pres

    Bloody Sunday: One soldier charged with two murders and four attempted murders.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    If that's treason I'm pretty sure there's a lot of guilty British MPs. Keir Starmer springs to mind for his 'secret meetings'.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Labour need to ditch a second EU vote and get behind the Norway option .

    If Norway is sold properly it could get a majority of the public behind it.

    I’m a Remainer but would feel more comfortable with this as it leaves the political institutions of the EU.

    It’s a version of Brexit that has quite a lot for Leavers but still leaves a few crumbs for Remainers .
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr kle4,


    "Makes it sound like modern society is just over sensitive!"

    It's just that the poshos have caught up with the attitude of the masses, who always despised kiddy-fiddlers. Their attitude was always uncompromising. The posho attitude was put down to them not having the benefit of going to a state school.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Floater said:
    "The MP also said he had visited Auschwitz last year on a trip with the Holocaust Educational Trust."

    Pass the sick bag.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    edited March 2019
    CD13 said:

    Mr kle4,


    "Makes it sound like modern society is just over sensitive!"

    It's just that the poshos have caught up with the attitude of the masses, who always despised kiddy-fiddlers. Their attitude was always uncompromising. The posho attitude was put down to them not having the benefit of going to a state school.

    In boarding schools, sexual abuse was considered to be character-forming. Or people would simply take the view that the Greeks and Romans did it, so it must be okay.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    nico67 said:

    Labour need to ditch a second EU vote and get behind the Norway option .

    If Norway is sold properly it could get a majority of the public behind it.

    I’m a Remainer but would feel more comfortable with this as it leaves the political institutions of the EU.

    It’s a version of Brexit that has quite a lot for Leavers but still leaves a few crumbs for Remainers .

    Norway would struggle to get a majority of Leavers behind it, which is ultimately why it’s untenable. It’s only a neat solution on paper.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?
    What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

    Seriously

    A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,
    A lot of very senior people in 2019 too. Where do people think all those worldwide missing children actually are and who is behind it? Notice the increase in human trafficking convictions lately?
    A certain crazy Hollywod gossip column has printed lots of 'blind' stories of people trafficking over the last decade, most of which read like mad conspiracy theories but several have been vindicated by subsequent events.
    Quite. There's an awful lot of crap going on that is covered up because of the status of the perps.
    But in the accepted world Jeffrey Epstein didn't have interesting people on his island, the trafficking problem is 'third world', nothing unspeakable happened in Haiti and nobody knows what happened to Maddie
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr kle4,


    "Makes it sound like modern society is just over sensitive!"

    It's just that the poshos have caught up with the attitude of the masses, who always despised kiddy-fiddlers. Their attitude was always uncompromising. The posho attitude was put down to them not having the benefit of going to a state school.

    In boarding schools, sexual abuse was considered to be character-forming. Or people would simply take the view that the Greeks and Romans did it, so it must be okay.
    I was at public school, there were some right nonces in gowns pretending to be teachers
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited March 2019
    Every outstanding IRA (And other republican and loyalist paramilitary) killing needs to be properly investigated, prosecuted and all amnesties removed if prosecutions take place here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    It being the gamble is not entirely absurd, but it was too unpopular with too many right from the start to work, to the point most people don't even seem to think MV3, if it happens, will be enough and they'll need MV4 to see it through. Even now it's still mostly off the record hints that group x might soften, which is code for 'they won't'. Which only rightly encourages remainers to say 'fine, no brexit at all then'. May is risking far too much on this gamble.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    Pulpstar said:

    Every outstanding IRA (And other republican and loyalist paramilitary) killing needs to be properly investigated, prosecuted and all amnesties removed if prosecutions take place here.
    But Bloody Sunday pre-dated many of these, no?
  • Listening to the broadcast media this morning there does seem to be a coming together between conservative and labour mps around a Norway style brexit but in all the discussions a referendum seems to be disappearing from view

    Except, "Norway" is a really shit outcome. What's the Article 50-equivalent of getting out of it?
    To some but not others. Consensus is the name of the game and the HOC seems to be trying to brexit and stop no deal and another referendum

    That would be the sensible result
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited March 2019
    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    Zero chance of 3 or 4 all English ties....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    D and e are zero wingnut
  • He needs to focus on actually getting Spurs back in to Europe....
    How would you react if Harry Kane backed Mark Francois for Tory leader ?
    The same as if Dele did so for Andrew Bridgen?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr kle4,


    "Makes it sound like modern society is just over sensitive!"

    It's just that the poshos have caught up with the attitude of the masses, who always despised kiddy-fiddlers. Their attitude was always uncompromising. The posho attitude was put down to them not having the benefit of going to a state school.

    In boarding schools, sexual abuse was considered to be character-forming. Or people would simply take the view that the Greeks and Romans did it, so it must be okay.
    I was at public school, there were some right nonces in gowns pretending to be teachers
    Mine was a day school, but looking back, there were some dodgy teachers.

    We had a French teacher who liked smacking boys' bottoms; a sports teacher who would enforce a rule that no one was to wear underwear under their shorts, and carry out checks from time to time; a Latin teacher who took a real shine to a very pretty boy in class, put him on his knee, and recited Latin homosexual love poetry to him; and a music teacher whose disappearance, after being reported for molesting a boy, has never been solved in 41 years. They found his car abandoned in the Bois de Bolougne.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Pulpstar said:

    Every outstanding IRA (And other republican and loyalist paramilitary) killing needs to be properly investigated, prosecuted and all amnesties removed if prosecutions take place here.
    Agreed. Which is why none of them should be. Ireland has enough history to worry about without dragging up the past for sport. Every peace process involves a putting aside of past atrocities on both sides, which is what the early releases were about in NI, among other things. That principle should be kept here too. Certainly, that will upset some victims' families but I'm afraid that sometimes peace demands that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    The Public Prosecution Service said on Thursday there was enough evidence to prosecute Soldier F for the murders of James Wray and William McKinney.
    The soldier will also face charges for the attempted murders of Joseph Friel, Michael Quinn, Joe Mahon and Patrick O'Donnell.
    Thirteen people were shot dead at a civil rights march on 30 January 1972.
    The PPS said there was insufficient evidence to prosecute 16 other soldiers and two Official IRA men.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47540271
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Curious as to why the DUP has not used its clout to demand an amnesty?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Not much discussion here on today's vote for extending. Is it taken for granted? Short or long extension?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr kle4,


    "Makes it sound like modern society is just over sensitive!"

    It's just that the poshos have caught up with the attitude of the masses, who always despised kiddy-fiddlers. Their attitude was always uncompromising. The posho attitude was put down to them not having the benefit of going to a state school.

    In boarding schools, sexual abuse was considered to be character-forming. Or people would simply take the view that the Greeks and Romans did it, so it must be okay.
    It's certainly character forming, though not in the way these people imagine.
  • He needs to focus on actually getting Spurs back in to Europe....
    How would you react if Harry Kane backed Mark Francois for Tory leader ?
    The same as if Dele did so for Andrew Bridgen?
    Burn your season ticket and start supporting Arsenal?
  • Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    Apart from the obvious on d and e, there's some stats here:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47562984
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    After yesterday's nonsense, interesting to see the more reflective mood of the morning from some. I saw part of the Ken Clarke interview on Sky - revocation followed by "another go" at A50 somewhere down the line. Maybe but where's the accountability for the last three wasted years? I also suspect the notion of having A50 hanging round like a bad smell isn't going to find favour with the EU either.

    We are 15 days from exiting without a Deal - the ERG are on the cusp of a victory of sorts as Cyclefree opined on the previous thread. The EU will have to decide what kind of extension we are going to get and I see a convergence between Clarke and Tusk around either revocation and a new application or a long extension of the existing A50 application.

    That might be the sensible approach but the political impact of this in the UK are much harder to gauge. To leave without leaving is going to cause a lot of people in the UK a lot of problems.

    Kenneth Clarke's position is perfectly reasonable. He has rightly voted for TMs deal - even though it is far from perfect for him - and others have thwarted it - very foolishly to my mind. It is perfectly reasonable for him to consider other options.

    It is still far from clear what Labour want exactly in place of TMs deal, and, given that No Deal is unacceptable to most people, business and commerce s well as parliament, it is very unclear what sort of acceptable deal the strong Brexiteers actually want. TM may not have managed this as well as she should, but she and Kenneth Clarke at least hold positions which are logically and practically possible, unlike lots of other people.

  • He needs to focus on actually getting Spurs back in to Europe....
    How would you react if Harry Kane backed Mark Francois for Tory leader ?
    The same as if Dele did so for Andrew Bridgen?
    Burn your season ticket and start supporting Arsenal?
    I'm not Sol.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    nico67 said:

    Labour need to ditch a second EU vote and get behind the Norway option .

    If Norway is sold properly it could get a majority of the public behind it.

    I’m a Remainer but would feel more comfortable with this as it leaves the political institutions of the EU.

    It’s a version of Brexit that has quite a lot for Leavers but still leaves a few crumbs for Remainers .

    Norway would struggle to get a majority of Leavers behind it, which is ultimately why it’s untenable. It’s only a neat solution on paper.
    You don't need a majority of leavers; you need a majority of the population, ideally. In truth, you just need a majority of MPs.

    But I do think there's a shift in public mood taking place, to the extent that the hardcore Brexiteers are overplaying their hand and if they don't accept Yes for an answer, the validity of their mandate comes into question.
  • Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    Zero chance of 3 or 4 all English ties....
    Yeah I’m tired plus I drank some Pepsi last night in one of those massive German glasses.
  • Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    Apart from the obvious on d and e, there's some stats here:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47562984
    Thanks.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?
    What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

    Seriously

    A lot of people in 1979. It was regarded completely differently and as not particularly serious if the victims were boys,
    Or indeed girls if not too young, viz Savile.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    geoffw said:

    Not much discussion here on today's vote for extending. Is it taken for granted? Short or long extension?

    I don't think there's much chance of no extension being asked for. And given a short one really only keeps revoke, no deal or deal on the table, I expect it to be a longer one.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr kle4,


    "Makes it sound like modern society is just over sensitive!"

    It's just that the poshos have caught up with the attitude of the masses, who always despised kiddy-fiddlers. Their attitude was always uncompromising. The posho attitude was put down to them not having the benefit of going to a state school.

    In boarding schools, sexual abuse was considered to be character-forming. Or people would simply take the view that the Greeks and Romans did it, so it must be okay.
    I was at public school, there were some right nonces in gowns pretending to be teachers
    Mine was a day school, but looking back, there were some dodgy teachers.

    We had a French teacher who liked smacking boys' bottoms; a sports teacher who would enforce a rule that no one was to wear underwear under their shorts, and carry out checks from time to time; a Latin teacher who took a real shine to a very pretty boy in class, put him on his knee, and recited Latin homosexual love poetry to him; and a music teacher whose disappearance, after being reported for molesting a boy, has never been solved in 41 years. They found his car abandoned in the Bois de Bolougne.
    Mine was day and boarding. I was a day pupil. We had similar 'characters' plus s female klepto English mistress. And PE master who liked go make us run round the playground in our underpants. Then there were the shower 'checks'
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    Zero chance of 3 or 4 all English ties....
    Yeah I’m tired plus I drank some Pepsi last night in one of those massive German glasses.
    Tsk, didn't they teach you maths at private school?!
  • He needs to focus on actually getting Spurs back in to Europe....
    How would you react if Harry Kane backed Mark Francois for Tory leader ?
    The same as if Dele did so for Andrew Bridgen?
    Burn your season ticket and start supporting Arsenal?
    I'm not Sol.
    You wish you were Sol.

    With Andy Robertson suspended for the first leg of the QF we’re going to draw Juve.

    Watch Ronaldo murder Alberto Moreno in the first leg.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    Pulpstar said:

    Every outstanding IRA (And other republican and loyalist paramilitary) killing needs to be properly investigated, prosecuted and all amnesties removed if prosecutions take place here.
    Agreed. Which is why none of them should be. Ireland has enough history to worry about without dragging up the past for sport. Every peace process involves a putting aside of past atrocities on both sides, which is what the early releases were about in NI, among other things. That principle should be kept here too. Certainly, that will upset some victims' families but I'm afraid that sometimes peace demands that.
    I that was the whole price of the peace process, that many people would be denied justice but it was necessary for peace.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Sky News: Beto running or Pres

    Running, I think.
    Pres unlikely...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    edited March 2019
    More idiocy you mean? Quite right

    In fairness it is not completely dumb, but it is another thing people have been saying since December.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    The Public Prosecution Service said on Thursday there was enough evidence to prosecute Soldier F for the murders of James Wray and William McKinney.
    The soldier will also face charges for the attempted murders of Joseph Friel, Michael Quinn, Joe Mahon and Patrick O'Donnell.
    Thirteen people were shot dead at a civil rights march on 30 January 1972.
    The PPS said there was insufficient evidence to prosecute 16 other soldiers and two Official IRA men.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47540271

    A decision which will likely satisfy nobody.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    It's not going to be your D or E options, there's only four English teams and a tie involves two of them.

    From Gracenote statistician on BBC website:

    What are the chances of an all-English quarter-final?

    Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis, Gracenote

    There are 105 possible scenarios for the Champions League draw - at 11:00 GMT on Friday - which will also determine the semi-final line-ups.

    Nine out of those 105 scenarios involve the four English clubs all being drawn against each other - an 8.6% chance.

    Out of the total possible draws, 72 scenarios have exactly one all-English tie - that's 66.6%.

    Therefore, the chance of all four English clubs avoiding each other in the quarter final draw is 22.9%.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47562984
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    nico67 said:

    Labour need to ditch a second EU vote and get behind the Norway option .

    If Norway is sold properly it could get a majority of the public behind it.

    I’m a Remainer but would feel more comfortable with this as it leaves the political institutions of the EU.

    It’s a version of Brexit that has quite a lot for Leavers but still leaves a few crumbs for Remainers .

    Norway would struggle to get a majority of Leavers behind it, which is ultimately why it’s untenable. It’s only a neat solution on paper.
    You don't need a majority of leavers; you need a majority of the population, ideally. In truth, you just need a majority of MPs.

    But I do think there's a shift in public mood taking place, to the extent that the hardcore Brexiteers are overplaying their hand and if they don't accept Yes for an answer, the validity of their mandate comes into question.
    So do I. There was a big shift towards supporting the WA among Leave voters in YouGov's latest poll.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited March 2019

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    D and e are zero wingnut
    Correct.

    On the others;

    - 128 (unique) ways of drawing 8 teams into pairs (256 if you care about who plays home first)
    - of these, 24 result in no all-English ties
    - another 24 result in 2 all-English ties
    - leaving 80 with one all-English tie

    So:
    a) 18.75%
    b) 62.5%
    c) 18.75%

    I think.

    Edit: this is only true if it's a straight draw, with no seeding or protection or anything. Comment below from BBC website implies teams can't draw teams they've already played - is this right?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sean_F said:

    The Public Prosecution Service said on Thursday there was enough evidence to prosecute Soldier F for the murders of James Wray and William McKinney.
    The soldier will also face charges for the attempted murders of Joseph Friel, Michael Quinn, Joe Mahon and Patrick O'Donnell.
    Thirteen people were shot dead at a civil rights march on 30 January 1972.
    The PPS said there was insufficient evidence to prosecute 16 other soldiers and two Official IRA men.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47540271

    A decision which will likely satisfy nobody.
    https://twitter.com/BelTel/status/1106154737462923265
  • kle4 said:

    More idiocy you mean? Quite right

    In fairness it is not completely dumb, but it is another thing people have been saying since December.
    If T May gets the WA through (for which she and her team have negotiated), wouldn't she see it as as political triumph and not a political disaster.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    geoffw said:

    Not much discussion here on today's vote for extending. Is it taken for granted? Short or long extension?

    We're waiting for the Speaker to announce the amendments he has chosen. Should be in a couple of minutes.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429
    Sandpit said:

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    It's not going to be your D or E options, there's only four English teams and a tie involves two of them.

    From Gracenote statistician on BBC website:

    What are the chances of an all-English quarter-final?

    Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis, Gracenote

    There are 105 possible scenarios for the Champions League draw - at 11:00 GMT on Friday - which will also determine the semi-final line-ups.

    Nine out of those 105 scenarios involve the four English clubs all being drawn against each other - an 8.6% chance.

    Out of the total possible draws, 72 scenarios have exactly one all-English tie - that's 66.6%.

    Therefore, the chance of all four English clubs avoiding each other in the quarter final draw is 22.9%.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47562984
    I was discussing the different combinations with my 12 year old son this morning on my walk to the station.
  • Nigelb said:

    Sky News: Beto running or Pres

    Running, I think.
    Pres unlikely...
    Male, White - two insuperable handicaps for the current Democrat mindset. He's probably fit as well.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    This will outrage the DUP base, which could well have an impact on their willingness to switch to supporting May's deal.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    kle4 said:

    More idiocy you mean? Quite right

    In fairness it is not completely dumb, but it is another thing people have been saying since December.
    If T May gets the WA through (for which she and her team have negotiated), wouldn't she see it as as political triumph and not a political disaster.
    I think she'd see it as a triumph on which to depart having delivered Brexit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    kle4 said:

    More idiocy you mean? Quite right

    In fairness it is not completely dumb, but it is another thing people have been saying since December.
    If T May gets the WA through (for which she and her team have negotiated), wouldn't she see it as as political triumph and not a political disaster.
    Which it would be, but one achieved on a basis that she would be the worst possible person to advance the next phase.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    This will outrage the DUP base, which could well have an impact on their willingness to switch to supporting May's deal.
    It's likely I'm just being a moron here (IANAL) but where in this does it lay out they are prosecuting Soldier F? Seems to say no likelihood of conviction, so not to be prosecuted.
    https://www.ppsni.gov.uk/Branches/PPSNI/PPSNI/Files/Documents/PPS Press Office/Bloody Sunday Decision/Summary of Reasons.pdf

    I looked at section on James Wray and William McKinney, which were the two men he's apparently being charged with murdering.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    I'm a leaver who reluctantly has accepted Mrs May's poor deal needs a go. Only because I suspect the EU is incapable of reforming and they'll confirm their intransigence such that even some Euro-fanatics will pause for thought.

    What's the point of an extension? They'll get one, but for what? All it does is increase the uncertainty for industry. It's purely part of plan 'fart-around' where they hope they can manoeuvre a referendum re-run.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    Cameron ain't all bad:

    The Saville Inquiry, chaired by Lord Saville of Newdigate, was established in 1998 to reinvestigate the incident. Following a 12-year inquiry, Saville's report was made public in 2010 and concluded that the killings were both "unjustified" and "unjustifiable". It found that all of those shot were unarmed, that none were posing a serious threat, that no bombs were thrown, and that soldiers "knowingly put forward false accounts" to justify their firing.[8][9] On the publication of the report, British prime minister David Cameron made a formal apology on behalf of the United Kingdom.[10] Following this, police began a murder investigation into the killings.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloody_Sunday_(1972)
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?
    What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

    Seriously

    So did Thatcher apparently.

    Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

    Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

    Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

    Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1
    I'm surprised that's never become a bigger scandal.
    it's about to be. How many more escaped scrutiny?

    Hopefully it is not too late to get at least a rough picture of whether (how many) of these people were actually paedophiles.
    The rumours and allegations were reported long ago in Gyles Brandreth's diaries. In 1991, Brandreth's constituents alleged to him that Morrison was 'a disgusting pervert' who was 'into little boys'. It couldn't be clearer could it? I assume this would have been edited out, had Morrison not died before the diaries were published.
    How many more?

    Are there any still being covered for, today, in 2019? If not, what changed?
    According to Brandreth, Morrison's background was about as grand as one could get without being in the royal family. I assume that people at this level were safer to pursue their 'interests' than the riff raff ... and that they still are.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Scott_P said:
    Which is why we are governed by the rule of law not the tyranny of the majority.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    I wonder if this might be a final straw that does for the LibDem brand - so they throw their lot in with the TIGs?
    What sort of person just turns a blind eye to child abuse???

    Seriously

    So did Thatcher apparently.

    Margaret Thatcher personally protected a senior Conservative MP who was under suspicion of abusing children, according to MI5 files disclosed to a public inquiry.

    Sir Peter Morrison featured in a series of internal Security Service memos written during 1986-87 about his alleged “interest in small boys”.

    Despite MI5’s concerns — which were primarily about any risk to national security rather than the welfare of children — the MP for Chester served as a junior minister, then Tory party deputy chairman and eventually Mrs Thatcher’s parliamentary private secretary.

    Five documents about Morrison, who died in 1995, were found in MI5 files during a trawl of archives for information relevant to the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c1bad844-4450-11e9-bfd2-5b366418ffd1
    I'm surprised that's never become a bigger scandal.
    it's about to be. How many more escaped scrutiny?

    Hopefully it is not too late to get at least a rough picture of whether (how many) of these people were actually paedophiles.
    The rumours and allegations were reported long ago in Gyles Brandreth's diaries. In 1991, Brandreth's constituents alleged to him that Morrison was 'a disgusting pervert' who was 'into little boys'. It couldn't be clearer could it? I assume this would have been edited out, had Morrison not died before the diaries were published.
    How many more?

    Are there any still being covered for, today, in 2019? If not, what changed?
    According to Brandreth, Morrison's background was about as grand as one could get without being in the royal family. I assume that people at this level were safer to pursue their 'interests' than the riff raff ... and that they still are.
    They will be until its exposed and someone takes steps to flush the lavatory of the turds. Power and noncery have an affinity
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    edited March 2019
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Which is why we are governed by the rule of law not the tyranny of the majority.
    Well, sometimes we're governed by the rule of law, and at other times, by the rule of expediency.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    Oh come on, Arlene!

    The former Stormont first minister Arlene Foster of the DUP deferred a bid for extra funding for inquests into historic killings in Northern Ireland,[8] a decision condemned by the human rights group Amnesty International.[9] Foster confirmed she had used her influence in the devolved power-sharing executive to hold back finance for a backlog of inquests connected to the conflict.[8] The High Court said "her decision to refuse to put a funding paper on the Executive basis was unlawful and procedurally flawed."[10]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballymurphy_massacre
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe Adonis will storm Parliament like Wolfie Smith.
  • Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Which is why we are governed by the rule of law not the tyranny of the majority.
    Well, sometime we're governed by the rule of law, and at other times, by the law of expediency.
    Just wait until the Brexit trials after No Deal.

    Something tells me Boris, Gove, Farage, Francois et al will not do well in prison.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    So which Labour MPs do the PB commentariat expect to ride to Mrs May's rescue in the next vote on her deal?

    I think she'll do well to even hang onto the 3 Labour MPs who sided with her on Tuesday - I note Caroline Flint voted with the Labour whip on all 3 of yesterday's votes...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    we don't do that with guns do we?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Sandpit said:

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    It's not going to be your D or E options, there's only four English teams and a tie involves two of them.

    From Gracenote statistician on BBC website:

    What are the chances of an all-English quarter-final?

    Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis, Gracenote

    There are 105 possible scenarios for the Champions League draw - at 11:00 GMT on Friday - which will also determine the semi-final line-ups.

    Nine out of those 105 scenarios involve the four English clubs all being drawn against each other - an 8.6% chance.

    Out of the total possible draws, 72 scenarios have exactly one all-English tie - that's 66.6%.

    Therefore, the chance of all four English clubs avoiding each other in the quarter final draw is 22.9%.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47562984
    Calling bullshit on that maths.
    For the "two all-english games" scenario you have:
    AvB CvD
    AvC BvD
    AvD BvC

    I.e. "A" can only play one of three other teams, and the other game is fixed as there are only two english teams left.

    And that's it! Even if you double up by switching the orders you're going to end up with an even number, i.e. not 9.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    It's not going to be your D or E options, there's only four English teams and a tie involves two of them.

    From Gracenote statistician on BBC website:

    What are the chances of an all-English quarter-final?

    Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis, Gracenote

    There are 105 possible scenarios for the Champions League draw - at 11:00 GMT on Friday - which will also determine the semi-final line-ups.

    Nine out of those 105 scenarios involve the four English clubs all being drawn against each other - an 8.6% chance.

    Out of the total possible draws, 72 scenarios have exactly one all-English tie - that's 66.6%.

    Therefore, the chance of all four English clubs avoiding each other in the quarter final draw is 22.9%.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47562984
    I was discussing the different combinations with my 12 year old son this morning on my walk to the station.
    What did you reckon were the permutations?

    @Endillion is right that there's 128 different ways of arranging eight teams, so there must be a rule somewhere that certain matches are not allowed to bring it down to 105 - but I can't see any rules anywhere about it - last year's commentary suggested a completely free draw.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    we don't do that with guns do we?
    I have thirty knives in my kitchen
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Right there’s four English teams and four non English teams in the Champions League QFs.

    Can someone work out and tell me the probability of

    a) 0 all English ties

    b) 1 all English tie

    c) 2 all English ties

    d) 3 all English ties

    e) 4 all English ties

    It's not going to be your D or E options, there's only four English teams and a tie involves two of them.

    From Gracenote statistician on BBC website:

    What are the chances of an all-English quarter-final?

    Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis, Gracenote

    There are 105 possible scenarios for the Champions League draw - at 11:00 GMT on Friday - which will also determine the semi-final line-ups.

    Nine out of those 105 scenarios involve the four English clubs all being drawn against each other - an 8.6% chance.

    Out of the total possible draws, 72 scenarios have exactly one all-English tie - that's 66.6%.

    Therefore, the chance of all four English clubs avoiding each other in the quarter final draw is 22.9%.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47562984
    Calling bullshit on that maths.
    For the "two all-english games" scenario you have:
    AvB CvD
    AvC BvD
    AvD BvC

    I.e. "A" can only play one of three other teams, and the other game is fixed as there are only two english teams left.

    And that's it! Even if you double up by switching the orders you're going to end up with an even number, i.e. not 9.
    it's the other games in the draw isn't it?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019
    Prediction
    May, the supporters of the WA will be seen as rubbish but forgiven once she goes
    The ERG and the likes of Cooper, Benn, Grieve on the other side will end up actively despised by the electorate at large
This discussion has been closed.