Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between 4% and 11% in the standard voting intention polls

It is now almost a month since Chuka Umunna and others made their much publicised departure from LAB joining the new the Independent Group. The Wikipedia table above shows that’s happened in the standard voting polls since.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 189
    thirst?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,191
    first
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 189
    OK - so after a disastrous wednesday but a tolerable thursday for May, what happens next? Serious question - I just cant keep up...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252
    edited March 15
    Penddu said:

    OK - so after a disastrous wednesday but a tolerable thursday for May, what happens next? Serious question - I just cant keep up...

    What’s your thoughts on the Newport by-election?
    (Discussion at end of last thread about Ladbrokes’ 3rd place market).
  • TIG need some new defectors soon or they will wither and die in the manner of Spurs premiership campaigns of recent seasons
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252
    edited March 15
    Champions’ league draw:

    Ajax v Juventus
    Liverpool v Porto
    Tottenham v Man City
    Barcelona v Man United

    Good news for Liverpool fans.
  • FPT - UKIP at Evens is a ridiculously short price. Is there any market you can lay them ?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,280

    tpfkar said:

    FPT:

    I'm a swing eligible voter on the Lib Dem leadership. I never thought that Tim Farron should have stood down, whatever issues around his faith his campaigning skills were sorely needed and haven't come close to being matched under Cable. In a fair world where intellect, experience, judgement and wisdom were valued more highly, and shouting loudly valued lower, Vince should have ben a colossus. This world is anything but fair.

    I'm concerned over a couple of things Layla Moran has chosen to campaign on in the last few months; I've some judgement queries. On Jo Swinson I want to know that she's a wider vision than gender-neutral bathrooms uniforms and gender pay gaps. On Ed Davey I've concerns how he'll get noticed and how nimble he can be in praising / criticising the coalition where needed. And I would never vote for a non-MP to be leader, whatever the outcome of the proposed changes coming to Spring Conference. My vote is up for grabs.

    What evidence is there of Farron's "campaigning ability" reaching beyond Westmorland (and even there, he came close to losing it in 2017)? During his period as leader, he made very little impact in the national debate, despite Brexit and Corbyn offering clear opportunities; he was as absent from the media as Cable is, and when he did get coverage, it was often for the wrong reason.

    Whoever is the next Lib Dem leader needs to look at Caroline Lucas and take a leaf out of her book, in terms of gaining media exposure from a minor party. There still seems to be too much of an assumption that the Lib Dems' have an automatic seat at the table, and it's not true any more: they need to be much more pro-active in forcing themselves onto the airwaves.
    Huge evidence: Witney, Richmond Park by-elections. Council elections in 2016 were good. Lib Dem press office was renowned for witty and lightning quick commentary, way ahead of Labour at the time. Farron's majority in Westmorland when he was able to devote himself to the constituency. Distinctive positions on Brexit, refugees, environment, taxation and drug policy cut through more than anything Cable has brought in.

    General Election would have been much better had his conflicts over faith not come up, and the strong anti-Corbyn campaign not backfired so badly.
  • Floater said:

    first

    Not quite
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,185
    edited March 15
    So a potential Liverpool v Manchester United or Barca semi.

    Assuming we get past Porto.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    £7.50 Lib Dems (Knocked back from £20) @ 13-2 (Boosted from 6-1) third place for me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    Newport West betting post:
    Pulpstar said:

    £7.50 Lib Dems (Knocked back from £20) @ 13-2 (Boosted from 6-1) third place for me.

  • Full draw.

    QF

    Ajax v Juventus

    Liverpool v Porto

    Tottenham v Manchester City

    Barcelona v Manchester United (this will be reversed)

    SF

    SEMI-FINAL 1

    TOTTENHAM OR MAN CITY V AJAX OR JUVENTUS

    SEMI-FINAL 2

    MANCHESTER UNITED OR BARCELONA V LIVERPOOL OR PORTO
  • Penddu said:

    OK - so after a disastrous wednesday but a tolerable thursday for May, what happens next? Serious question - I just cant keep up...

    We'll have an accidental no deal departure in a fortnight.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252
    Semi final draw less good for Liverpool fans.

    I’m gonna have to cheer for Man U to beat Barça.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    Good draws for Liverpool and Man City in the Champions league, less so Man United and Spuds.
  • Sandpit said:

    Semi final draw less good for Liverpool fans.

    I’m gonna have to cheer for Man U to beat Barça.

    Nah, we'll do Barca in the semi.

    The barracking Coutinho will get will be worth it.

    The second leg of the semi will be at Anfield, you'll be able to power Western Europe with the power generated at Anfield that night.

    Assuming we beat Porto
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,661
    The European Union is poised to tell Theresa May that she must hold a second referendum or soften Brexit in return for them granting a lengthy delay to Britain’s departure date.

    The Times understands that the prime minister has been told by senior EU officials and other European leaders that conditions for an extension to the Article 50 exit process would include the option of a second vote on EU membership.

    Mrs May is expected to ask a summit of EU leaders next week for a delay to Brexit. Unless the House of Commons has ratified the withdrawal agreement by then momentum is growing across the EU for a lengthy postponement to give Britain a “long reflection period”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-will-agree-to-extra-time-if-there-is-a-second-brexit-referendum-z6td8nvd7
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    Sandpit said:

    Semi final draw less good for Liverpool fans.

    I’m gonna have to cheer for Man U to beat Barça.

    Man City are probably just as strong as Barca right now though.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 17,439
    edited March 15
    FPT

    There is a direct line from Islamophobic newspaper headlines and columns through politicians like Johnson to Nazis like Hopkins to murdering psychopaths gunning down Moslems in the streets. Of course, there is a similar line from the preachings and teachings of reactionary Moslem bigots to the murders of innocents across the world; and from media cries of traitor to the assassination of a politician on a quiet English street. Speech is free, and that must be cherished, but those who spread hate own the consequences of what they say.

    Got to say I agree with every word of that.

    I suppose the only issue is separating genuine criticism of religions from the islamophobia or antisemitism - or in some quarters anti-Christianity - views based on bigotry.

    Is Richard Dawkins, as a vocal advocate of atheism and critic of all religions, Islamophobic? Personally I would say no but there are plenty of mainstream commentators who have accused him of just such a position. So one has to be very careful where one starts the timeline of responsibility.

    Looking at it the other way I can see a very clear line that can be drawn from claiming one's religion is the only truth - as all the monotheistic religions do - to extremists gunning people down. Of course along the way you need the irrational to become the unhinged but that is certainly not unusual in humans.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 189
    edited March 15
    Newport West - on the third place market:

    At last election UKIP, Plaid & LD were all very close to each other for third.

    I expect UKIP vote to collapse - despite the non-stop Brexit coverage. They have proven themselves to be idiots in general and Neil Hamilton is particularly despised.

    Plaid vote should be firm - and expect a small increase - their local candidate is popular, and recent Welsh polls have been good for Plaid, although they have never made much of an impact in Newport

    LD have previously done very well in this seat, but they have faded badly in recent years and I cant see any reason for them to recover.

    But the outsider to watch is Abolish the Welsh Assemby Party. They are likley to pick up a lot of the previous UKIP voters and I think third place will be between them and Plaid at around 1500 votes each.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    My friend is on the "climate strike" in Sheffield atm, Theresa May not popular in it shocker...
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 189
    For first place it will be close. Paul Flynn did have a strong personal following and although Corbyn is not exactly popular, I cant see too many local voters switching to Conservatives - Labour hold but with reduced majority
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252

    Sandpit said:

    Semi final draw less good for Liverpool fans.

    I’m gonna have to cheer for Man U to beat Barça.

    Nah, we'll do Barca in the semi.

    The barracking Coutinho will get will be worth it.

    The second leg of the semi will be at Anfield, you'll be able to power Western Europe with the power generated at Anfield that night.

    Assuming we beat Porto
    (Looks at flights to UK that week)

    Yes you’ll be able to power Western Europe with the Anfield energy!

    If we beat Porto
  • Abhay Doomra with a good point about how things look for Man City now:

    “City get a tough one. They play Spurs on 9th, 16th and 20th. They also play United on 25th and an easy one, Burnley on 28th.”
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,982
    Pulpstar said:

    My friend is on the "climate strike" in Sheffield atm, Theresa May not popular in it shocker...

    I thought they were ten-year olds. How old are you!??
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763

    FPT

    There is a direct line from Islamophobic newspaper headlines and columns through politicians like Johnson to Nazis like Hopkins to murdering psychopaths gunning down Moslems in the streets. Of course, there is a similar line from the preachings and teachings of reactionary Moslem bigots to the murders of innocents across the world; and from media cries of traitor to the assassination of a politician on a quiet English street. Speech is free, and that must be cherished, but those who spread hate own the consequences of what they say.

    Got to say I agree with every word of that.

    I suppose the only issue is separating genuine criticism of religions from the islamophobia or antisemitism - or in some quarters anti-Christianity - views based on bigotry.

    Is Richard Dawkins, as a vocal advocate of atheism and critic of all religions, Islamophobic? Personally I would say no but there are plenty of mainstream commentators who have accused him of just such a position. So one has to be very careful where one starts the timeline of responsibility.

    Looking at it the other way I can see a very clear line that can be drawn from claiming one's religion is the only truth - as all the monotheistic religions do - to extremists gunning people down. Of course along the way you need the irrational to become the unhinged but that is certainly not unusual in humans.
    It's not just religion. Where does criticism become incitement?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My friend is on the "climate strike" in Sheffield atm, Theresa May not popular in it shocker...

    I thought they were ten-year olds. How old are you!??
    I'm a nine year old.
  • Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My friend is on the "climate strike" in Sheffield atm, Theresa May not popular in it shocker...

    I thought they were ten-year olds. How old are you!??
    I'm a nine year old.
    Let me contact gamble aware and the bookies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My friend is on the "climate strike" in Sheffield atm, Theresa May not popular in it shocker...

    I thought they were ten-year olds. How old are you!??
    I'm a nine year old.
    Let me contact gamble aware and the bookies.
    I've already commented about how the premium charge costs me money on the gamble aware facebook ads.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,427

    Sandpit said:

    Semi final draw less good for Liverpool fans.

    I’m gonna have to cheer for Man U to beat Barça.

    Nah, we'll do Barca in the semi.

    The barracking Coutinho will get will be worth it.

    The second leg of the semi will be at Anfield, you'll be able to power Western Europe with the power generated at Anfield that night.

    Assuming we beat Porto
    If City & United both get through your match will be reversed so second leg at OT.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,191

    Floater said:

    first

    Not quite
    I was - I even refreshed to check - this place is rigged :-)

    I demand a second or even third re run until I win
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 73,185
    edited March 15

    Sandpit said:

    Semi final draw less good for Liverpool fans.

    I’m gonna have to cheer for Man U to beat Barça.

    Nah, we'll do Barca in the semi.

    The barracking Coutinho will get will be worth it.

    The second leg of the semi will be at Anfield, you'll be able to power Western Europe with the power generated at Anfield that night.

    Assuming we beat Porto
    If City & United both get through your match will be reversed so second leg at OT.
    That works even better then.

    Do what we did to Citeh last season in the QFs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,038
    Mr. Woolie, aye. We're lucky that the likes of Brevik[sp] are very rare.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 182
    nico67 said:

    You can’t politically Leave the EU and say the UK has left . This seems to be the latest nonsense suggested by some Tory MPs.

    Even if Mays deal is passed before March 29 the UK has not left . And those thinking the drama is over have forgotten the Withdrawal And Implementation Bill which can be amended.

    For me the exact legal leaving date is very important.

    If I leave German territory after Brexit then I will need *proof* of Aufenthaltsrecht (the right to stay here). That I wil be given residential permission is not in doubt, but this is a peice of paper which until now the British have not needed, but will very soon. The german government will only start the process of distributing hard copies of Aufenthaltrecht to all the UK citizens living in Germany once it is certain that the UK is leaving. They expect the full process to take 9 months. If I want a summer holiday in England (which I have already booked) then I will need to pester the German Foreign Office to be fast tracked (presumably as will almost all other Brits in Germany) and there is no guarantee that for a holiday the need to fast track will be accepted. The only other way to avoid this headache is if the Brexit date is pushed back beyond the start of August.
  • Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082

    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
    I think if I was to choose a european PM to lead here, in all seriousness I'd go with Rutte.
  • kfowkeskfowkes Posts: 17
    Polls are a bit all over the place. A Snap GE would be hard to predict, I don't see the Tories more than 5% ahead in a GE though even with TIG who are not a party yet and likely to flop.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 17,439
    Sean_F said:

    FPT

    There is a direct line from Islamophobic newspaper headlines and columns through politicians like Johnson to Nazis like Hopkins to murdering psychopaths gunning down Moslems in the streets. Of course, there is a similar line from the preachings and teachings of reactionary Moslem bigots to the murders of innocents across the world; and from media cries of traitor to the assassination of a politician on a quiet English street. Speech is free, and that must be cherished, but those who spread hate own the consequences of what they say.

    Got to say I agree with every word of that.

    I suppose the only issue is separating genuine criticism of religions from the islamophobia or antisemitism - or in some quarters anti-Christianity - views based on bigotry.

    Is Richard Dawkins, as a vocal advocate of atheism and critic of all religions, Islamophobic? Personally I would say no but there are plenty of mainstream commentators who have accused him of just such a position. So one has to be very careful where one starts the timeline of responsibility.

    Looking at it the other way I can see a very clear line that can be drawn from claiming one's religion is the only truth - as all the monotheistic religions do - to extremists gunning people down. Of course along the way you need the irrational to become the unhinged but that is certainly not unusual in humans.
    It's not just religion. Where does criticism become incitement?
    True. I suppose I am using religion as an example because of the attacks but also because it is the one area that tries to claim it should have some special protection from criticism.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440

    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
    I have visions of Brexit being overturned and Juncker and Tusk doing the Degeneration X crotch cross at 'all voters'
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,301

    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
    I suspect the French might ask us to take Macron off their hands. About the one person who could make Theresa May look humble and consensual...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
    I think if I was to choose a european PM to lead here, in all seriousness I'd go with Rutte.
    What about Orban?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    edited March 15
    In fairness to the EU, they haven't tried to overturn Brexit - the ball is firmly in our laughing stock of a legislature at the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
    I think if I was to choose a european PM to lead here, in all seriousness I'd go with Rutte.
    What about Orban?
    He's a touch too right wing for me to be honest.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,661
    Cheltenham - Day 4

    I had a glorious day at the track on Wednesday. Met up with PtP and others, and scored an admirably consistent ZERO across the entire card...

    Fortunately yesterday the fates smiled on me and I am back in the game.

    Here are today's likely losers.

    1:30 Sir Erec Hannon E/W
    2:10 Whiskey Sour
    2:50 Commander of Fleet
    3:30 Clan Des Obeaux
    4:10 Road to Rome
    4:50 Not Another Muddle
    5:30 Early Doors
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,280
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
    I think if I was to choose a european PM to lead here, in all seriousness I'd go with Rutte.
    Rutte would be a bit too reasonable, when we need someone willing to tell us hard truths about what it will cost us to adopt certain positions, when we really don't want to hear it.
    I'd go for the Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaitė I think she's got steel and doesn't do bullcrap.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 504
    Scott_P said:

    The European Union is poised to tell Theresa May that she must hold a second referendum or soften Brexit in return for them granting a lengthy delay to Britain’s departure date.

    The Times understands that the prime minister has been told by senior EU officials and other European leaders that conditions for an extension to the Article 50 exit process would include the option of a second vote on EU membership.

    Mrs May is expected to ask a summit of EU leaders next week for a delay to Brexit. Unless the House of Commons has ratified the withdrawal agreement by then momentum is growing across the EU for a lengthy postponement to give Britain a “long reflection period”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-will-agree-to-extra-time-if-there-is-a-second-brexit-referendum-z6td8nvd7

    Expanding on TSE's thoughts on an accidental no-deal, I agree it's a (way) larger than zero chance (and not even all that accidental).

    I'm not sure what TM would do in the situation above. If MV3 falls, and the EU demand an absolute commitment to a referendum in return for a long delay, would she go for that (probably after MV4)? And even if she did, would they believe her?

    In that circumstance, we'd probably have Farage winning 50 per cent of the UK EUparl seats, Bojo as Tory leader and Corbyn still sitting on his hands. Getting a referendum bill through parliament in those circumstances seems unlikely.
  • So in April I'm going to be a fan of

    Spurs (x3)
    Crystal Palace
    Manchester United
    Burnley



    If City do navigate this they'll be champions.
  • Scott_P said:

    The European Union is poised to tell Theresa May that she must hold a second referendum or soften Brexit in return for them granting a lengthy delay to Britain’s departure date.

    The Times understands that the prime minister has been told by senior EU officials and other European leaders that conditions for an extension to the Article 50 exit process would include the option of a second vote on EU membership.

    Mrs May is expected to ask a summit of EU leaders next week for a delay to Brexit. Unless the House of Commons has ratified the withdrawal agreement by then momentum is growing across the EU for a lengthy postponement to give Britain a “long reflection period”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-will-agree-to-extra-time-if-there-is-a-second-brexit-referendum-z6td8nvd7

    Expanding on TSE's thoughts on an accidental no-deal, I agree it's a (way) larger than zero chance (and not even all that accidental).

    I'm not sure what TM would do in the situation above. If MV3 falls, and the EU demand an absolute commitment to a referendum in return for a long delay, would she go for that (probably after MV4)? And even if she did, would they believe her?

    In that circumstance, we'd probably have Farage winning 50 per cent of the UK EUparl seats, Bojo as Tory leader and Corbyn still sitting on his hands. Getting a referendum bill through parliament in those circumstances seems unlikely.
    I think she'll do it in baby steps.

    I wouldn't rule out a referendum on a referendum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,038
    Mr. P, the work to rebuild trust in politicians achieves a first victory :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,040

    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    Mary II was at least the previous incumbent's daughter!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    I'm getting into past life regression lately. Just curious to know what it felt like to see Liverpool win the title or Spurs win anything at all.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,671
    Morning all.

    I missed the Parliamentary shenanigans yesterday. Did anything important happen?

    Absolutely dreadful news from NZ.

    @Big_G put it best when he said this:-

    "Our family has great affection for New Zealand and especially Christchurch where our eldest son emigrated to 15 years ago and we have visited several times. Though our eldest son now lives in Vancouver he retains ties with friends and ex work colleagues there.

    This attack is evil in it's purest form and we need as a Country, especially in light of Brexit, to make a concerted effort to bring all our communities together in total condemnation of all intolerance

    I posted this on my facebook page this morning and know PB forum will join in our condolences and sympathy to all Kiwis

    To all Kiwis

    We have woken up to the horrific attacks in Christchurch and just cannot believe it. Tears are shed for that beautiful City, it's people and the whole Country. Such hatred is beyond belief and we must alll stand against the bigotted and twisted minds of those who think like this. May the Good Lord comfort all those affected and our prayers are for all Kiwis everywhere."

    I cannot put it better.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,671
    Scott_P said:

    Cheltenham - Day 4

    I had a glorious day at the track on Wednesday. Met up with PtP and others, and scored an admirably consistent ZERO across the entire card...

    Fortunately yesterday the fates smiled on me and I am back in the game.

    Here are today's likely losers.

    1:30 Sir Erec Hannon E/W
    2:10 Whiskey Sour
    2:50 Commander of Fleet
    3:30 Clan Des Obeaux
    4:10 Road to Rome
    4:50 Not Another Muddle
    5:30 Early Doors

    It was a glorious day's racing yesterday. I am looking forward to today.

    Best of luck with the betting!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,599

    FPT

    There is a direct line from Islamophobic newspaper headlines and columns through politicians like Johnson to Nazis like Hopkins to murdering psychopaths gunning down Moslems in the streets. Of course, there is a similar line from the preachings and teachings of reactionary Moslem bigots to the murders of innocents across the world; and from media cries of traitor to the assassination of a politician on a quiet English street. Speech is free, and that must be cherished, but those who spread hate own the consequences of what they say.

    Got to say I agree with every word of that.

    I suppose the only issue is separating genuine criticism of religions from the islamophobia or antisemitism - or in some quarters anti-Christianity - views based on bigotry.

    Is Richard Dawkins, as a vocal advocate of atheism and critic of all religions, Islamophobic? Personally I would say no but there are plenty of mainstream commentators who have accused him of just such a position. So one has to be very careful where one starts the timeline of responsibility.

    Looking at it the other way I can see a very clear line that can be drawn from claiming one's religion is the only truth - as all the monotheistic religions do - to extremists gunning people down. Of course along the way you need the irrational to become the unhinged but that is certainly not unusual in humans.
    I'd agree with much of that, too - but "white nationalism", which is also perhaps implicated, is not a religion per se.
    Dawkins is an often rude provocateur, but he's more of an equal opportunity religiophobe than islamophobe.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,739
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    first

    Not quite
    I was - I even refreshed to check - this place is rigged :-)

    I demand a second or even third re run until I win
    We should get TSE to run the second referendum. We might not like the results, but they’ll be sure to be definitive.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,373
    tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    FPT:

    I'm a swing eligible voter on the Lib Dem leadership. I never thought that Tim Farron should have stood down, whatever issues around his faith his campaigning skills were sorely needed and haven't come close to being matched under Cable. In a fair world where intellect, experience, judgement and wisdom were valued more highly, and shouting loudly valued lower, Vince should have ben a colossus. This world is anything but fair.

    I'm concerned over a couple of things Layla Moran has chosen to campaign on in the last few months; I've some judgement queries. On Jo Swinson I want to know that she's a wider vision than gender-neutral bathrooms uniforms and gender pay gaps. On Ed Davey I've concerns how he'll get noticed and how nimble he can be in praising / criticising the coalition where needed. And I would never vote for a non-MP to be leader, whatever the outcome of the proposed changes coming to Spring Conference. My vote is up for grabs.

    What evidence is there of Farron's "campaigning ability" reaching beyond Westmorland (and even there, he came close to losing it in 2017)? During his period as leader, he made very little impact in the national debate, despite Brexit and Corbyn offering clear opportunities; he was as absent from the media as Cable is, and when he did get coverage, it was often for the wrong reason.

    Whoever is the next Lib Dem leader needs to look at Caroline Lucas and take a leaf out of her book, in terms of gaining media exposure from a minor party. There still seems to be too much of an assumption that the Lib Dems' have an automatic seat at the table, and it's not true any more: they need to be much more pro-active in forcing themselves onto the airwaves.
    Huge evidence: Witney, Richmond Park by-elections. Council elections in 2016 were good. Lib Dem press office was renowned for witty and lightning quick commentary, way ahead of Labour at the time. Farron's majority in Westmorland when he was able to devote himself to the constituency. Distinctive positions on Brexit, refugees, environment, taxation and drug policy cut through more than anything Cable has brought in.

    General Election would have been much better had his conflicts over faith not come up, and the strong anti-Corbyn campaign not backfired so badly.
    Yes, I don’t think that’s completely fair from David.

    Farron at least got on TV occasionally and did stuff - even if no-one could quite remember his name.

    Cable, by contrast, is totally invisible and, as far as I can tell, bone idle.

    What’s in his diary each week?
  • rpjs said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    first

    Not quite
    I was - I even refreshed to check - this place is rigged :-)

    I demand a second or even third re run until I win
    We should get TSE to run the second referendum. We might not like the results, but they’ll be sure to be definitive.
    Second referendum question.

    Do you want to ruin the country & economy, split up the UK, and make Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin happy by Leaving the EU?

    Yes or No.

    I think the electoral commission will be happy with the neutrality of that question.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,044
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning. Grim stuff from Christchurch. They are still recovering from the earthquake and its such a beautiful city. A determined psychopath is hard to stop or legislate against.
    As for Brexit, long delay my curvy arse, no way can they sell that to a thoroughly exasperated public
    2 more years of this shit? Wed be begging Norsefire to take over

    It'll be like the Glorious Revolution.

    We'll be asking for a European to rule us and it'll be for the best.

    I'm hoping for Donald Tusk.
    I think if I was to choose a european PM to lead here, in all seriousness I'd go with Rutte.
    Rutte would, au moins, have a partial grasp the UK's mercantile imperative that we share to some degree with the Netherlands. "Take away 'Time is Money' and what is left of England?" As Victor Hugo observed.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,044
    eristdoof said:

    nico67 said:

    You can’t politically Leave the EU and say the UK has left . This seems to be the latest nonsense suggested by some Tory MPs.

    Even if Mays deal is passed before March 29 the UK has not left . And those thinking the drama is over have forgotten the Withdrawal And Implementation Bill which can be amended.

    For me the exact legal leaving date is very important.

    If I leave German territory after Brexit then I will need *proof* of Aufenthaltsrecht (the right to stay here). That I wil be given residential permission is not in doubt, but this is a peice of paper which until now the British have not needed, but will very soon. The german government will only start the process of distributing hard copies of Aufenthaltrecht to all the UK citizens living in Germany once it is certain that the UK is leaving. They expect the full process to take 9 months. If I want a summer holiday in England (which I have already booked) then I will need to pester the German Foreign Office to be fast tracked (presumably as will almost all other Brits in Germany) and there is no guarantee that for a holiday the need to fast track will be accepted. The only other way to avoid this headache is if the Brexit date is pushed back beyond the start of August.
    Don't you feel freer?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,875
    NZ massacre: yes, just horrible - can't add to what others have said, and it does put our petty deliberations in the shade.

    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.

    Newport: not as sure as others that UKIP will collapse. If you're a pissed-off Brexiteer, they're a convenient message-bearer, regardless of who they put up and any details of what they say. They've never been about much more than the brand name, frankly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,599
    Does this, for example, tend towards incitement ?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/434110-trump-suggests-that-things-could-get-very-bad-if-military-police
    “You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny," Trump said in the interview with Breitbart published on Wednesday. "I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher."

    "I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad,"...
  • So the route is open for an all English Europa League final.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    Scott_P said:
    What's she saying Scott "Protected tweet"...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,191
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,191
    Nigelb said:

    Does this, for example, tend towards incitement ?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/434110-trump-suggests-that-things-could-get-very-bad-if-military-police
    “You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny," Trump said in the interview with Breitbart published on Wednesday. "I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher."

    "I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad,"...

    As someone who thinks we are served best by Democracy I find those troubling words.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Oh right, the Tiggers. Been drowned out a bit lately.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    What would happen if say Chelsea won the Europa League and came 6th in the Prem and Man United won the Champions league and finished 5th ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,617
    edited March 15

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order to fool their own voters and party members.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252
    Pulpstar said:

    What would happen if say Chelsea won the Europa League and came 6th in the Prem and Man United won the Champions league and finished 5th ?

    Spurs could finish 4th in the Premier League and not qualify for the CL next year? ;)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    Pulpstar said:

    What would happen if say Chelsea won the Europa League and came 6th in the Prem and Man United won the Champions league and finished 5th ?

    Tottenham would choke and liverpool would fail to win the league, I think. Basically it would mean lolz at spurs and the scouse idiots.
    Seriously - we'd have 6 in the champions league? Or would 4th place miss out?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What would happen if say Chelsea won the Europa League and came 6th in the Prem and Man United won the Champions league and finished 5th ?

    Spurs could finish 4th in the Premier League and not qualify for the CL next year? ;)
    Would 3rd qualify or do we have 5 teams ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,187

    Pulpstar said:

    What would happen if say Chelsea won the Europa League and came 6th in the Prem and Man United won the Champions league and finished 5th ?

    Tottenham would choke and liverpool would fail to win the league, I think. Basically it would mean lolz at spurs and the scouse idiots.
    Seriously - we'd have 6 in the champions league? Or would 4th place miss out?
    Fourth misses out.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order not to fool their own voters and party members.
    Why do you think People's Vote and Best for Britain didn't want the amendment? Why do you think TIG ignored them?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What would happen if say Chelsea won the Europa League and came 6th in the Prem and Man United won the Champions league and finished 5th ?

    Spurs could finish 4th in the Premier League and not qualify for the CL next year? ;)
    This pleases me
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order not to fool their own voters and party members.
    Why do you think People's Vote and Best for Britain didn't want the amendment? Why do you think TIG ignored them?
    PV didn't want it, because they knew it would be voted down.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333
    kle4 said:

    Oh right, the Tiggers. Been drowned out a bit lately.

    Yep, but I'm sure they'll take centre-stage soon with their policy on... um, I mean, their ideas about... uh...
  • Pulpstar said:

    What would happen if say Chelsea won the Europa League and came 6th in the Prem and Man United won the Champions league and finished 5th ?

    Both qualify for the Champions League but the fourth place team in the PL gets shunted into the Europa League.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    Floater said:

    Nigelb said:

    Does this, for example, tend towards incitement ?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/434110-trump-suggests-that-things-could-get-very-bad-if-military-police
    “You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny," Trump said in the interview with Breitbart published on Wednesday. "I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher."

    "I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad,"...

    As someone who thinks we are served best by Democracy I find those troubling words.
    If he thinks he has the support of the military he is in for a surprise.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,617
    On the TIGgers, so far their main impact hasn't been as a party-in-the-making but making it harder for Labour to pretend they haven't got a problem with extremism, anti-semitism and Brexit incoherence. Tom Watson's initiative to create a TIG-within-Labour group seems to have stopped the drift for the moment, but it is going to be hard to sustain that initiative in the future, when policy choices have to be made.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,617
    edited March 15

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order not to fool their own voters and party members.
    Why do you think People's Vote and Best for Britain didn't want the amendment? Why do you think TIG ignored them?
    The cynically-named 'People's Vote' campaign don't think it's the right time. The TIGgers do. It's called a difference of opinion.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,044
    Nigelb said:

    Does this, for example, tend towards incitement ?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/434110-trump-suggests-that-things-could-get-very-bad-if-military-police
    “You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny," Trump said in the interview with Breitbart published on Wednesday. "I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher."

    "I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad,"...

    If that last paragraph didn't mention Trump by name you'd assume it was some of Putin's regular bullshit
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333

    Floater said:

    Nigelb said:

    Does this, for example, tend towards incitement ?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/434110-trump-suggests-that-things-could-get-very-bad-if-military-police
    “You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny," Trump said in the interview with Breitbart published on Wednesday. "I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher."

    "I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad,"...

    As someone who thinks we are served best by Democracy I find those troubling words.
    If he thinks he has the support of the military he is in for a surprise.

    I suspect he largely does have the support of the troops.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order not to fool their own voters and party members.
    Why do you think People's Vote and Best for Britain didn't want the amendment? Why do you think TIG ignored them?
    They don't think it's the right time. The TIGgers do. It's called a difference of opinion.
    Really? They thought they were in with a good shot of winning the vote on the amendment yesterday? That seems more like lunacy than an opinion.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Sky

    DUP announce they are involved in on going and significant discussions with TM

    Very interesting. Hopefully laying a pathway to endorse TM deal which would be a huge step
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    edited March 15

    Floater said:

    Nigelb said:

    Does this, for example, tend towards incitement ?

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/434110-trump-suggests-that-things-could-get-very-bad-if-military-police
    “You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny," Trump said in the interview with Breitbart published on Wednesday. "I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher."

    "I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad,"...

    As someone who thinks we are served best by Democracy I find those troubling words.
    If he thinks he has the support of the military he is in for a surprise.

    If anybody is Rock solid behind Trump it's the military, the Clintonistas have been weeded out and those not on board the end the endless wars strategy are being sidelined. Bolton is there merely to give neo cons wood and as an eventual scapegoat.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,427
    Pulpstar said:

    What would happen if say Chelsea won the Europa League and came 6th in the Prem and Man United won the Champions league and finished 5th ?

    Whoever comes 4th would miss out on the CL. Max 5 per country.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,617

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order not to fool their own voters and party members.
    Why do you think People's Vote and Best for Britain didn't want the amendment? Why do you think TIG ignored them?
    They don't think it's the right time. The TIGgers do. It's called a difference of opinion.
    Really? They thought they were in with a good shot of winning the vote on the amendment yesterday? That seems more like lunacy than an opinion.
    Oh, I didn't claim they were right or sensible. Just that they were honest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order not to fool their own voters and party members.
    Why do you think People's Vote and Best for Britain didn't want the amendment? Why do you think TIG ignored them?
    The cynically-named 'People's Vote' campaign don't think it's the right time. The TIGgers do. It's called a difference of opinion.
    One of the best* parts of Brexit is the alternate way one day it is parliament that is sovereign, and the next "the people" should be ultimate arbiters. Both leave and remain playing this particular hokey kokey.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order not to fool their own voters and party members.
    Why do you think People's Vote and Best for Britain didn't want the amendment? Why do you think TIG ignored them?
    They don't think it's the right time. The TIGgers do. It's called a difference of opinion.
    Really? They thought they were in with a good shot of winning the vote on the amendment yesterday? That seems more like lunacy than an opinion.
    Oh, I didn't claim they were right or sensible. Just that they were honest.
    And I'm claiming that it's much more likely that they were not honest than that they didn't see a huge defeat coming.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,346
    Comres only had a 2% Tory lead - though TIG may have been included in that poll.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,617
    Pulpstar said:

    ...
    Independents: people I know who are switched onto politics (including two centrist Labour MPs who they might have fancied attracting) are pretty annoyed about their cynical pushing of the referendum against the wishes of the referendum campaigners - really obvious that they're more about damaging Labour than stopping Brexit. I think this will have passed most people by, but they then have the other problem that most people are starting to forget they exist.
    ..

    What was cynical about it? They believe there should be a referendum, so they voted for it. Pretty much the diametric opposite of cynical, in contrast to those who pretend they might support a referendum in order not to fool their own voters and party members.
    Why do you think People's Vote and Best for Britain didn't want the amendment? Why do you think TIG ignored them?
    The cynically-named 'People's Vote' campaign don't think it's the right time. The TIGgers do. It's called a difference of opinion.
    One of the best* parts of Brexit is the alternate way one day it is parliament that is sovereign, and the next "the people" should be ultimate arbiters. Both leave and remain playing this particular hokey kokey.
    The other delight is seeing people who have spent three months repeatedly defying three-line whips complaining at some of their colleagues defying three-line whips.
This discussion has been closed.