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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since TIG was formed the Tories have enjoyed leads of between

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    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Blaming Cameron for the incoherence of the Leave proposition is quite delightfully bonkers!

    Sadly, no it isn't. He manifestly failed to prepare government for an entirely foreseeable outcome; he resigned as PM when he had given no indication that he was not prepared to lead either outcome; he came back with a lousy renegotiation deal and sold it as if it amounted to something; he presided over a terrible, fearful and negative campaign.

    Remainers have had 44 years, since 1975, of almost unbroken party consensus to build an impregnable case for the EU, fulfil some of its ideals and to shape it in accord with popular opinion. Their failure is lamentable. Mr Cameron, tragically, is part of that problem.

    Of course there is more than one 'Leave' proposition, and it would be incoherent to try to do them all at the same time. So what? There are several competing visions for the EU's future too.

    Parliament has one job, of sorting it out thoughtfully. I'm just trying to remember how that project is getting on.



    It's patently absurd to argue that Cameron could have defined the Leave case for them. They can't even define it for themselves after three years of intensive negotiation and discussion. Any attempt by him to do so would immediately have been denounced as a bunch of lies designed to discredit the Leave position.

    Cameron is the last person to blame. He at least campaigned vigorously and full-throatedly for Remain, which is more than can be said for anyone in Labour or indeed anywhere else.
    Preparation for outcomes is a central government and civil service task.

    Cameron should never have ended up in a position where a referendum was unavoidable.

    That is Osbourne's fault for been too good (as leader of the 2015 Campaign).
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Interesting analysis of TIG, suggesting that as things stand, only Heidi Allen would retain her seat.

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    I am not surprised. It is the nature of the system as it stands and even though I disagree with them I would not look upon it as a reflection of their own abilities or popularity.
    Detailed study then, which shows little or no benefit to the Lib Dems. Also if the LDs didn't stand against the egregious Ms. Allen, I would as a Liberal.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Gold cup ? No idea. Found a free pound bet so 50p E/W on Native River.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    matt said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Interesting. From what I hear, a lot of people would deliberately boycott any second referendum. It would store up huge legitimacy issues.

    Interesting that people being denied a vote last time is "legitimate", but people not being arsed to vote would make it "illegitimate"...
    EU citizens, you mean? If they cared so deeply about the UK they could have become citizens.
    Will you be saying the same for UK nationals in the EU . Some countries don’t allow duel nationality and people were using their freedom of movement rights . And why would people who could avoid it now take a UK passport given it’s going to restrict their rights .

    I think the majority of EU countries don’t allow non-citizens to vote.
    We have an unusual situation wrt to Ireland whereby nationals of Ireland can vote in local and and national representative elections. What Ireland doesn’t do is permit non-Irish citizens to vote in national referendums. And rightly so.
    Ireland has specific separate franchises for constitutional referendums (and Presidential elections) and Dail elections. I think I’m right in saying that the Dail franchise would apply to non-constitutional referendums but Ireland’s never had any. The Dail franchise has been extended to resident British citizens in the Republic in reciprocity for the electoral rights Britain extended to Irish citizens in 1949.

    The thing is though, whatever the reason for the Ireland Act containing those provisions in the first place, they are used practically by many members of the nationalist community in Northern Ireland to act as if they are Irish citizens only (practically all NI residents born there are Irish citizens by Irish law) and so ignore the fact that they are also (again practically all) British citizens by British law.

    So yes, you could legislate to have a franchise for referendums in the UK which is more restrictive than the Parliamentary franchise, but you’d be practically disenfranchising a pretty large chunk of the Northern Irish population.

    The DUP might well see that as a feature, not a bug, of course, but it would wreck the NI peace process.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Interesting. From what I hear, a lot of people would deliberately boycott any second referendum. It would store up huge legitimacy issues.

    Interesting that people being denied a vote last time is "legitimate", but people not being arsed to vote would make it "illegitimate"...
    EU citizens, you mean? If they cared so deeply about the UK they could have become citizens.
    One of the most stupid and ignorant comments I have seen on here. Have all the Brits in Spain become Spanish? Duh!
    No but there is certainly an argument for saying they should. If you are going to make a new life in a new country then personally I think you should show commitment to that country.

    I know in Australia a few years ago they raised this as an issue and there were proposals to strip voting rights from the 160,000 Brits who had not taken out Australian citizenship.
    @Sandpit can tell us the citizenry requirements of Dubai. I'm sure he has swotted up on the mandatory test.
    Has he expressed a desire to vote in elections in Dubai? :p
    @Tyndall: " If you are going to make a new life in a new country then personally I think you should show commitment to that country."

    nothing about voting.
    I’m not sure he was keen on staying there permanently. So probably best he doesn’t have the right to vote in referenda concerning that country’s medium and long-term future.
    You can see the problems this throws up.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Interesting. From what I hear, a lot of people would deliberately boycott any second referendum. It would store up huge legitimacy issues.

    Interesting that people being denied a vote last time is "legitimate", but people not being arsed to vote would make it "illegitimate"...
    EU citizens, you mean? If they cared so deeply about the UK they could have become citizens.
    One of the most stupid and ignorant comments I have seen on here. Have all the Brits in Spain become Spanish? Duh!
    No but there is certainly an argument for saying they should. If you are going to make a new life in a new country then personally I think you should show commitment to that country.

    I know in Australia a few years ago they raised this as an issue and there were proposals to strip voting rights from the 160,000 Brits who had not taken out Australian citizenship.
    @Sandpit can tell us the citizenry requirements of Dubai. I'm sure he has swotted up on the mandatory test.
    Has he expressed a desire to vote in elections in Dubai? :p
    Funnily enough, only Emiratis can vote in Dubai.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    So Leave areas get 1.6 billion spread over 7 years . Whilst NI could get bunged over a billion for a tiny fraction of the population over a much shorter timeframe .

    This really could be another May own goal.

    In her position, I'd increase the £1.6bn by a factor of ten.
    It seems that she has grown a socialist type magic money tree. We all know where that ends.

    Here lies the remains of the Conservative Party reputation for economic competence. Died of a rabid fever called Brexit. RIP. 1979-2016.
    We've got the money. In a deal situation we'd have that plus another £16bn spare.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,855
    Afternoon all :)

    I was in Westminster this morning and walked through Parliament Square and up Whitehall to Trafalgar Square. A few hundred young people protesting - noisy but good natured and also up at Nelson's Column.

    Two ironies - a number of them were in McDonald's enjoying lunch and there were a few parents and guardians with some of them. More girls than boys to this observer. One or two slogans which would leave the PbTories and their associates apoplectic.

    Interesting to see a positive message from Michael Gove and a more negative one from Damian Hinds. I'm no fan of Gove but on this at any rate he is listening and it will be interesting to see, if he becomes Conservative leader, whether the Green Agenda will become part of the Tory agenda.
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    NEW THREAD

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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,818
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Whether another EU vote happens why do the media keep peddling the line that attitudes haven’t changed.

    It’s like they haven’t looked at every single poll for the last 18 months. Every single one has remain ahead .

    Didn’t they all have Remain ahead before the polls closed?
    No another myth peddled . There were loads of polls showing leave ahead. Don’t take my word for it google Eu ref polls and wiki shows you all the polls .
    Ten of the thirteen polls in the final days had remain ahead, up to as much as 10%. How big are the Remain leads now?
    18 of the 28 polls before Jo Cox's murder had Leave ahead by as much as 10%. I suspect the polls after that may have suffered from a shy Leaver effect.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016

    As for the Remain leads now, the last Kantar one had Remain 12% ahead.
    Basically unchanged since the referendum then ;)
    Nope.

    I doubt you're ignorant enough of polling to be able to believe that the polls are directly comparable before and after a normalisation event, so you must be trolling.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    rpjs said:

    The Dail franchise has been extended to resident British citizens in the Republic in reciprocity for the electoral rights Britain extended to Irish citizens in 1949.

    If the Irish waited for a few more weeks, they could have remained in the Commonwealth as a Republic, like India did, per the London Declaration of 28/4/1949.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989


    And we have just learned that my wife's cousin's younger son has died due to a rare very aggressive cancer at 46, leaving a wife and three children. He only found out a few weeks ago.

    Just caught up with your bad news Big_G. My heart goes out to his wife and children. Devastating for them.
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