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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the top 2 in Newport West looking pretty certain the inte

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the top 2 in Newport West looking pretty certain the interesting bets are the LAB share and which party comes third

One of the features of this Parliament has been the relative absence of by-elections. In the 21 months since the general election they have been just two and now a third one is due to take place on April 4th in Newport West to fill the vacancy created by the death of Paul Flynn.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,752
    First.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,040
    Second like the Tories
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,040
    This will be the 1,020th by-election since the 1918 election.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,752
    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    dixiedean said:

    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.

    Thank you Dixie. As I have said earlier PB at it's best today
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    The hardcore who are happy to remain rather than deal are doing fine. But any Tories or Labour who do eventually want to deal and have been sodding about even when MV2 was clearly the last chance before a vote on no deal etc? They are looking very stupid right now.

    More practically, comments like Sandbach’s, which are not unreasonable, just gives hardliners even more reason not to switch - it won’t pass even then if she switches as well.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,040

    dixiedean said:

    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.

    Thank you Dixie. As I have said earlier PB at it's best today
    My condolences too, G. My uncle died about 30 years ago at the age of 46, suffering a coronary while playing badminton.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442

    dixiedean said:

    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.

    Thank you Dixie. As I have said earlier PB at it's best today
    My condolences too, G. My uncle died about 30 years ago at the age of 46, suffering a coronary while playing badminton.
    Thanks Sunil. My wife and I were playing mixed doubles tennis in an office competition in the 60's in Edinburgh when one of the Managers went up to smash the ball and fell dead over the net. He was only 29
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    I've backed the yellow peril here :o
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,968

    This will be the 1,020th by-election since the 1918 election.

    Not a lot of people know that Sunil.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    TIG analysis:

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    Soubry, Chukka and Wollaston could keep seats possibly if there is a LD/TIG Alliance.

    Only Allen if no alliance.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,136
    Condolences Big G

    Just seen the awful news.

    Thoughts with you and your wife and wider family
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,863
    dixiedean said:

    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.

    And can I add my condolences as well.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,063
    Pulpstar said:

    I've backed the yellow peril here :o

    for third I hope?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442

    Condolences Big G

    Just seen the awful news.

    Thoughts with you and your wife and wider family

    Thanks BJO - there are so many more important events in peoples lives than brexit
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,040

    This will be the 1,020th by-election since the 1918 election.

    Not a lot of people know that Sunil.
    My by-election thread is nearly done.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442

    dixiedean said:

    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.

    And can I add my condolences as well.
    Thank you so much
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,671

    dixiedean said:

    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.

    And can I add my condolences as well.
    Thank you so much
    I have just read your sad news. My condolences to you and yours.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.

    And can I add my condolences as well.
    Thank you so much
    I have just read your sad news. My condolences to you and yours.
    Thank you Cyclefree. The family are devastated
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    edited March 15
    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    Mayor Pete could make the debates. That will be very interesting.

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,333
    My condolences too, Big_G. Not something anyone should have to go through.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    Buttigieg is 12th in the BF betting for POTUS.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,570
    edited March 15
    I see Newport W. was 47% for Remain in the referendum. Given Lab & Con are so bleurgh on the issue will Remain be where it happens for third?

    p.s. condolences to Big G & family.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,928
    So sorry BigG.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 591
    What is going on ?

    Now Tory MPs are being abused for voting for Mays deal. Apparently now only a no deal is a real Brexit.

    How far we’ve come from the Vote Leave promises. If I can be blunt I can cope with Leavers who want to leave the EU in an orderly way with a deal .

    The no deal fantasists who aren’t happy enough with Brexit but now want to subject Remainers to the worst form of Brexit are really taking the piss !

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,014

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    He's way more impressive than the cringey Beto O'Rourke.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    He's way more impressive than the cringey Beto O'Rourke.
    He's certainly the dark horse runner imho.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442

    My condolences too, Big_G. Not something anyone should have to go through.

    Thank you. No and very unexpected - happened in weeks
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442

    I see Newport W. was 47% for Remain in the referendum. Given Lab & Con are so bleurgh on the issue will Remain be where it happens for third?

    p.s. condolences to Big G & family.

    Thank you
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Jonathan said:

    So sorry BigG.

    Thanks Jonathan. Everyone has been so kind and thoughtful
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,624

    TIG analysis:

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    Soubry, Chukka and Wollaston could keep seats possibly if there is a LD/TIG Alliance.

    Only Allen if no alliance.

    I don't think Soubry stands a chance in Broxtowe, with or without an Alliance. I think Chukka would really struggle too.

    Wollaston and Allen are the TIGgers best shots at holding on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,178

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    He's way more impressive than the cringey Beto O'Rourke.
    Beto does come over as a rather more cringey David Cameron, but perhaps Yanks like that sort of thing, after all we fe fell for it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,624

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Well after a difficult day it is time to wish everyone a good nights rest

    Once again, thank you to the PB community who have been so kind today

    Good night folks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    rcs1000 said:

    TIG analysis:

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    Soubry, Chukka and Wollaston could keep seats possibly if there is a LD/TIG Alliance.

    Only Allen if no alliance.

    I don't think Soubry stands a chance in Broxtowe, with or without an Alliance. I think Chukka would really struggle too.

    Wollaston and Allen are the TIGgers best shots at holding on.
    Lot of water to flow yet. But actually I doubt Soubry will stand again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    rcs1000 said:

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
    He needs money to get into the first debate. Hint, hint. :smiley:
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,036
    rcs1000 said:

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
    For any West Wing fans he's interviewed in the most recent The West Wing Weekly podcast
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 863
    edited March 15
    On the previous thread, some people seem to be scared of Stephen “Tommy Robinson” Lennon. The guy is just another generic racist twat. Laugh in his cakehole.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,947


    And we have just learned that my wife's cousin's younger son has died due to a rare very aggressive cancer at 46, leaving a wife and three children. He only found out a few weeks ago.

    Just caught up with your bad news Big_G. My heart goes out to his wife and children. Devastating. So quick.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    Barnesian said:


    And we have just learned that my wife's cousin's younger son has died due to a rare very aggressive cancer at 46, leaving a wife and three children. He only found out a few weeks ago.

    Just caught up with your bad news Big_G. My heart goes out to his wife and children. Devastating. So quick.
    Thank you. Yes - from being ok to passing away was just a few weeks. Very sobering thought
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,624
    My condolences to Mr G as well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,624
    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    Is Clegg regretting getting involved in the political nightmare that social media is becoming?
  • Barnesian said:


    And we have just learned that my wife's cousin's younger son has died due to a rare very aggressive cancer at 46, leaving a wife and three children. He only found out a few weeks ago.

    Just caught up with your bad news Big_G. My heart goes out to his wife and children. Devastating. So quick.
    Thank you. Yes - from being ok to passing away was just a few weeks. Very sobering thought
    Very sad news, so fast and so young. Love to you and all your family. All this political stuff is such nonsense really. All that matters is the people we love.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    :+1: to 6.

    I think we may just be in for a surprise. If he makes the debates, things could get interesting.

    On Hickenlooper - is he actually running?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,142
    Jonathan said:

    So sorry BigG.

    +1
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,624

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    :+1: to 6.

    I think we may just be in for a surprise. If he makes the debates, things could get interesting.

    On Hickenlooper - is he actually running?
    He's running, and in fundraising terms he's doing well.

    Is he getting any attention other than that...

    ...Not yet
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    Night all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,983
    Sorry to hear about your news Big G.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 241
    rcs1000 said:

    TIG analysis:

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    Soubry, Chukka and Wollaston could keep seats possibly if there is a LD/TIG Alliance.

    Only Allen if no alliance.

    I don't think Soubry stands a chance in Broxtowe, with or without an Alliance. I think Chukka would really struggle too.

    Wollaston and Allen are the TIGgers best shots at holding on.
    Word from the street (or at least from my mum and dad's street) in Broxtowe is that Soubry's star is falling, but not as fast as you might think.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,671
    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Can I just buff my nails and say that I mentioned Peter Buttigeig first - at least on here.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,671

    That’s just nonsense. IS have been using social media for terror attacks for years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,014
    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Poor Amy Klobuchar.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,624

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Poor Amy Klobuchar.
    Who?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,599
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Can I just buff my nails and say that I mentioned Peter Buttigeig first - at least on here.
    But can you pronounce his name ?

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,685
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Poor Amy Klobuchar.
    Who?
    WHO?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,599
    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    O’Rourke really ought to have run for the Senate again.
    I don’t think the whole entitled vibe is going to work for him this cycle, whereas a successful Senate run would have won him the everlasting gratitude of the Democrats.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763
    Drutt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TIG analysis:

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    Soubry, Chukka and Wollaston could keep seats possibly if there is a LD/TIG Alliance.

    Only Allen if no alliance.

    I don't think Soubry stands a chance in Broxtowe, with or without an Alliance. I think Chukka would really struggle too.

    Wollaston and Allen are the TIGgers best shots at holding on.
    Word from the street (or at least from my mum and dad's street) in Broxtowe is that Soubry's star is falling, but not as fast as you might think.
    Soubry's biggest difficulty is that it's a very marginal seat, so Labour voters have no reason to vote tactically for her, and Conservative voters will want to ditch her.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,014
    edited March 15
    Survation have Labour in the lead.

    The DM are being misleading in the presentation of the other questions because the charts show Conservative voters only.

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825

    Survation have Labour in the lead.

    The DM are being misleading in the presentation of the other questions because the charts show Conservative voters only.

    image


    Perhaps the 'we need a GE' Tories will pipe down a bit with a few more Lab leads in play.

    Still only 36% of all voters thinking MPs should back the deal, and referendum more popular than it.

    Not surprised her quitting is not thought to help the deal - people have been spinning for that one long enough.
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Can I just buff my nails and say that I mentioned Peter Buttigeig first - at least on here.
    But can you pronounce his name ?

    I cannot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    In happier news James Gunn is apparently rehired to direct Guardians of the Galaxy 3. Well I'm happy about it anyway.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,153

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Poor Amy Klobuchar.
    And we are a lot more than 24 hours from Tulsi.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763
    kle4 said:

    Survation have Labour in the lead.

    The DM are being misleading in the presentation of the other questions because the charts show Conservative voters only.

    image


    Perhaps the 'we need a GE' Tories will pipe down a bit with a few more Lab leads in play.

    Still only 36% of all voters thinking MPs should back the deal, and referendum more popular than it.

    Not surprised her quitting is not thought to help the deal - people have been spinning for that one long enough.
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Can I just buff my nails and say that I mentioned Peter Buttigeig first - at least on here.
    But can you pronounce his name ?

    I cannot.
    36% is pretty much in line with Yougov's figure from a couple of days ago, which also showed similar Conservative support for the deal.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,875
    Sean_F said:

    Drutt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TIG analysis:

    https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f

    Soubry, Chukka and Wollaston could keep seats possibly if there is a LD/TIG Alliance.

    Only Allen if no alliance.

    I don't think Soubry stands a chance in Broxtowe, with or without an Alliance. I think Chukka would really struggle too.

    Wollaston and Allen are the TIGgers best shots at holding on.
    Word from the street (or at least from my mum and dad's street) in Broxtowe is that Soubry's star is falling, but not as fast as you might think.
    Soubry's biggest difficulty is that it's a very marginal seat, so Labour voters have no reason to vote tactically for her, and Conservative voters will want to ditch her.
    I think that's correct. She is well-respected by the middle-class Labour vote who were the backbone of my support, but not in general to the point of actually voting for her.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,875
    And catching up with the thread, my condolences to BigG also - family loss is so awful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861
    edited March 16
    Beto O'Rourke wrote 'murder fantasy' fiction about running over children and was part of a teenage hacking group it has emerged tonight in a blow to his recently launched Democratic nomination campaign.


    O'Rourke however insists he made mistakes in his past and is moving forward


    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/beto-orourke-wrote-murder-fantasy-children-was-part-of-famed-hacking-group-report

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861

    Survation have Labour in the lead.

    The DM are being misleading in the presentation of the other questions because the charts show Conservative voters only.

    image

    Tory voters and All voters narrowly prefer May's Deal to No Deal then, Tory voters prefer May's Deal to soft Brexit or EUref2 but all voters prefer soft Brexit and to a lesser extent EUref2 to May's Deal
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,346
    kle4 said:

    The hardcore who are happy to remain rather than deal are doing fine. But any Tories or Labour who do eventually want to deal and have been sodding about even when MV2 was clearly the last chance before a vote on no deal etc? They are looking very stupid right now.

    More practically, comments like Sandbach’s, which are not unreasonable, just gives hardliners even more reason not to switch - it won’t pass even then if she switches as well.

    I believe she supported MV2.
  • I’ll say it again.

    We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.

    Thank you the ERG you morons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861
    edited March 16

    I’ll say it again.

    We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.

    Thank you the ERG you morons.

    No, we will get either the Deal or extension and some form of SM and CU BINO, the numbers in the Commons are not there for anything else.


    Survation of course excludes TIG and most other polls have the Tories ahead but even Survation has Labour on 2017 levels still, they are only ahead mainly thanks to Tory defections to UKIP and the LDs which might be remedied under a new leader
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,763

    I’ll say it again.

    We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.

    Thank you the ERG you morons.

    Probably neither.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,428
    HYUFD said:

    Beto O'Rourke wrote 'murder fantasy' fiction about running over children and was part of a teenage hacking group it has emerged tonight in a blow to his recently launched Democratic nomination campaign.


    O'Rourke however insists he made mistakes in his past and is moving forward


    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/beto-orourke-wrote-murder-fantasy-children-was-part-of-famed-hacking-group-report

    He was in the Cult of the Dead Cow, that's epic.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,428
    rcs1000 said:


    Who?

    AMY KLOBUCHAR
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,439
    Only a net -3 for whether MPs should vote for May's deal, just go for it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861
    edited March 16
    'If she does stand down Boris Johnson is clear favourite to succeed her. A total of 23 per cent of Tories back him with Sajid Javid on 10 per cent, followed by Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Amber Rudd.'
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,752
    So a poll has Labour in front? Advice to PB Tories. Adopt a Zen like calm. It is just a poll. The situation is so fluid. All is impermanence.
    All to play for.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,346
    dixiedean said:

    So a poll has Labour in front? Advice to PB Tories. Adopt a Zen like calm. It is just a poll. The situation is so fluid. All is impermanence.
    All to play for.

    I agree with that - things are so fluid at the moment.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 591
    I think more Labour MPs would back it if they thought it would go through .

    Say 15 Labour plus the DUP reduces Mays loss to below a hundred . There is a domino effect because as the ERG reduce that starts to remove the cover from the more pro EU group .

    It’s quite possible there will be one last stand on MV3 with May losing by under 50 votes .

    Then she scrapes through by MV4 . The big problem is there won’t be a stable majority , any win will be small .

    How does that survive the WAIB ?

    I really don’t think we’ve seen the last of the drama even if her deal scrapes through . Everything could still unravel .
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,346
    nico67 said:

    I think more Labour MPs would back it if they thought it would go through .

    Say 15 Labour plus the DUP reduces Mays loss to below a hundred . There is a domino effect because as the ERG reduce that starts to remove the cover from the more pro EU group .

    It’s quite possible there will be one last stand on MV3 with May losing by under 50 votes .

    Then she scrapes through by MV4 . The big problem is there won’t be a stable majority , any win will be small .

    How does that survive the WAIB ?

    I really don’t think we’ve seen the last of the drama even if her deal scrapes through . Everything could still unravel .

    I am not so sure. Buying off the DUP could well alienate any potential Labour switchers - indeed perhaps a few Tories too!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,708
    "Sky Views: Politics is in meltdown and the art of compromise no longer applies
    Adam Boulton"

    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-politics-is-in-meltdown-and-the-art-of-compromise-no-longer-applies-11666763
  • dotsdots Posts: 438
    rcs1000 said:

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
    But is America ready to elect a gay man as president?
  • dotsdots Posts: 438
    nico67 said:

    I think more Labour MPs would back it if they thought it would go through .

    Say 15 Labour plus the DUP reduces Mays loss to below a hundred . There is a domino effect because as the ERG reduce that starts to remove the cover from the more pro EU group .

    It’s quite possible there will be one last stand on MV3 with May losing by under 50 votes .

    Then she scrapes through by MV4 . The big problem is there won’t be a stable majority , any win will be small .

    How does that survive the WAIB ?

    I really don’t think we’ve seen the last of the drama even if her deal scrapes through . Everything could still unravel .

    1. If DUP don’t sign this flawed backstop deal could they get a better deal during the delay in terms of less threat to integrity of the union? Well, yes is the answer.

    2. Everyone keeps talking about labour MPs coming over the hill like cavalry. It was 3 in MV2. Of those possibles, surely prospect of softer brexit suits them just fine.

    3. Lest we overlook the non ERG rebels, second ref or softer brexit Tories, why should they feel under any pressure to surrender, if anything they may slip from supporting May’s deal to opposing it.

    4. The ERG. If they oppose May’s Chequers deal with EU on principle, then let’s have some respect for them. The difference between good brexit and hideous vassalage is as much personal value set than it is science. Bully them to get what you want, but if you think good comes once Bullying wins over principle then you are deluded, a victory in this instance will leave a burning grievance hung around the neck of the Conservative Party long after the lady is gone. Is that what you really want?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,745
    Whilst it wouldn't make a difference to the real ratings it would be nicer if survation released polls more often and yougov less often, It would make the selective reading of polls some seem to participate in a bit more difficult to get away with.

    It is just one poll in a range of polls and shouldn't be taken as the holy grail, nice to see a Labour lead though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,708
    "Life expectancy fell across the majority of high-income countries, signaling a collective and simultaneous decline among affluent nations for the first time in decades, a new study finds.

    Among 18 high-income countries -- including Spain, Sweden, Japan, Australia, the UK and the United States -- most countries saw declines in life expectancy between 2014 and 2015, according to the study, published Wednesday in the British Medical Journal.
    Australia, Japan, Denmark and Norway were the only countries in the study that showed an increase in life expectancy across all years for both men and women.
    The drop in the remaining 14 countries was "notable both for the number of countries and for the magnitude of the declines," the authors wrote."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/16/health/life-expectancy-uk-us-drop-study-intl/index.html
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,745
    This was quite interesting, what is also interesting is that it was retweeted by Ed Miliband.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/4/18246381/democrats-clinton-sanders-left-brad-delong

    ___________________________________________
    Yet DeLong believes that the time of people like him running the Democratic Party has passed. “The baton rightly passes to our colleagues on our left,” DeLong wrote. “We are still here, but it is not our time to lead.”
    ......
    It’s much harder to believe in those things now. That’s one part of it. The world appears to be more like what lefties thought it was than what I thought it was for the last 10 or 15 years.
    -------------------------------------

    Not consecutive bits above.

    Not sure if Sanders can do it this year, though I am hopeful but I think the Democrat party will shift more to its left wing and away from its centrist wing in terms of leadership. His proposal to be lead from the left but part of the discussion is acceptable to any reasonable in party opponent. Although most people (as the article also mentions) aren't so quick to accept the idea a different group should take the lead.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 863
    Sean_F said:

    I’ll say it again.

    We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.

    Thank you the ERG you morons.

    Probably neither.
    Indeed. Yet another PB overreaction to the latest random number generator from the pollsters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,028
    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll say it again.

    We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.

    Thank you the ERG you morons.

    Probably neither.
    Indeed. Yet another PB overreaction to the latest random number generator from the pollsters.
    Don't worry, I've changed the seed for the next batch. :smiley:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,035
    So the Mail didn't like the views of all voters, so decided to write a story as if Tory voters were the entire population. I guess we should be grateful that the actual poll findings are reported in a small font, so we can at least actually see what the public views are.

    The Tories face the problem of trying to thrust Brexit onto a population that increasingly doesn't want it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,354
    dots said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
    But is America ready to elect a gay man as president?
    Gayness is less of an electoral hurdle than looking about 12 in a country that in recent decades has favoured older candidates. Buttigieg has a good voice and speaks well, though in the clip he stumbled a couple of times in what was presumably a well-rehearsed answer.

    What is it with centrists and national service? First Macron, then TIG and now Buttigieg.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,354
    Back from the Cheltenham Festival to find no obvious changes on Brexit, nothing significant in the budget pre-budget spring statement although it looks like I dodged some vanilla weirdness during the past few threads.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,745

    dots said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
    But is America ready to elect a gay man as president?
    Gayness is less of an electoral hurdle than looking about 12 in a country that in recent decades has favoured older candidates. Buttigieg has a good voice and speaks well, though in the clip he stumbled a couple of times in what was presumably a well-rehearsed answer.

    What is it with centrists and national service? First Macron, then TIG and now Buttigieg.

    Being generous maybe it is a lack of their own policies and a reluctance to borrow from the left or right that makes them come up with ridiculous stuff.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,759
    dots said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
    But is America ready to elect a gay man as president?
    Much more concerning is his Oxford PPE (But its Pembroke, so it could be a lot worse....)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,759

    dots said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.







    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
    But is America ready to elect a gay man as president?
    Gayness is less of an electoral hurdle than looking about 12 in a country that in recent decades has favoured older candidates. Buttigieg has a good voice and speaks well, though in the clip he stumbled a couple of times in what was presumably a well-rehearsed answer.

    What is it with centrists and national service? First Macron, then TIG and now Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg, 37, is the youngest Democrat to have at least formed a presidential exploratory committee.

    He said anyone who walks into the Oval Office has to recognize how much they do not know. And he said he believes his age can be an advantage.

    "It allows me to communicate to the country a vision of what the country is going to look like in 2054 — that's the year I'll get to the age of the current president," Buttigieg said.

    "When you're personally preparing for what the world is going to look like, then it gives you a different sense of urgency."


    https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2019/03/10/pete-buttigieg-sxsw-top-5-takeaways-cnn-town-hall/3125486002/?utm_source=oembed&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=storylines
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,552
    Matt Chorley in today’s Times on Parliament but with wider application:

    “Nobody has said anything new, interesting or remotely helpful in these debates for about two years.”

    And (for people who insist on posting links to Twitter written by somebody who’s not a household name in their own household, but is suddenly and incomprehensible, deemed imbued with great insight):

    “People who write Twitter threads that start: “This is where I think we are.” I know where you are. Disappearing up your own backstop.”

    The whole column is worth reading.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,579
    The Democrat candidate everyone on pb should be interested in is Andrew Yang. This is not an endorsement.
This discussion has been closed.