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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    And may I add my condolences to Mr and Mrs Big G. The loss of a relative is never easy, but at such a young age, and with small children it must be almost unbearably painful.

    And can I add my condolences as well.
    Thank you so much
    I have just read your sad news. My condolences to you and yours.
    Thank you Cyclefree. The family are devastated
    I’m sorry to hear your news as well.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    The Democrat candidate everyone on pb should be interested in is Andrew Yang. This is not an endorsement.

    For anyone else who has to google:

    https://www.yang2020.com
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,532

    dots said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This guy is a total POTUS longshot, but he's good. Really good. And there's something fresh.

    I'm on at 270.

    Still available at 80.


    https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1104922963386630144


    https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1105582421066559488

    Wow.

    Insanely articulate.

    I like him a lot.
    But is America ready to elect a gay man as president?
    Gayness is less of an electoral hurdle than looking about 12 in a country that in recent decades has favoured older candidates. Buttigieg has a good voice and speaks well, though in the clip he stumbled a couple of times in what was presumably a well-rehearsed answer.

    What is it with centrists and national service? First Macron, then TIG and now Buttigieg.

    Being generous maybe it is a lack of their own policies and a reluctance to borrow from the left or right that makes them come up with ridiculous stuff.
    Being generous, if it's a reluctance to borrow the anti-Semitism of your left, or the Islamaphobia from the right, then they're on a good track.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    And catching up with the thread, my condolences to BigG also - family loss is so awful.


    Condolences from me too - such tragic news.

    As HMQEII observed on 9/11 'Grief is the price we pay for love'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    IanB2 said:

    So the Mail didn't like the views of all voters, so decided to write a story as if Tory voters were the entire population. I guess we should be grateful that the actual poll findings are reported in a small font, so we can at least actually see what the public views are.

    The Tories face the problem of trying to thrust Brexit onto a population that increasingly doesn't want it.
    Yes, Even amongst Tory voters it is neck and neck. A clear plurality for softer Brexit, 2 year delay and a #peoplesvote in the whole population.

    In terms of 4% Lab lead, it shows how transient voters memories can be, but also how much they dislike internal division. Labour solidarity or Tory coalition of chaos, we'll take Jezza, thank you.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Adding my condolences to BigG and hope the happy memories of those gone come through.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    I've had "503 Service Unavailable" in the past 24 hours for the vanillaforums website. Anyone know what the issue is here?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    AndyJS said:

    "Life expectancy fell across the majority of high-income countries, signaling a collective and simultaneous decline among affluent nations for the first time in decades, a new study finds.

    Among 18 high-income countries -- including Spain, Sweden, Japan, Australia, the UK and the United States -- most countries saw declines in life expectancy between 2014 and 2015, according to the study, published Wednesday in the British Medical Journal.
    Australia, Japan, Denmark and Norway were the only countries in the study that showed an increase in life expectancy across all years for both men and women.
    The drop in the remaining 14 countries was "notable both for the number of countries and for the magnitude of the declines," the authors wrote."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/16/health/life-expectancy-uk-us-drop-study-intl/index.html

    Yes, there was a worldwide dip in 14-15, but most countries apart from UK and USA got over it quickly. There are very marked differences by locality too, with deprived areas doing worst. Perhaps explaining why the £350 million per week and Jezza's anti-austerity both polled so well in these.

    https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/whats-happening-life-expectancy-uk
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited March 2019
    Gordon Brown. Pete Buttigieg. The answer in the Buttigieg clip echoes the structure of Brown's Sindyref speech. I thought it sounded familiar, though there may well be a common ancestor.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    The Democrat candidate everyone on pb should be interested in is Andrew Yang. This is not an endorsement.

    Given his name, is he a Manchurian candidate?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,093
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the Mail didn't like the views of all voters, so decided to write a story as if Tory voters were the entire population. I guess we should be grateful that the actual poll findings are reported in a small font, so we can at least actually see what the public views are.

    The Tories face the problem of trying to thrust Brexit onto a population that increasingly doesn't want it.
    Yes, Even amongst Tory voters it is neck and neck. A clear plurality for softer Brexit, 2 year delay and a #peoplesvote in the whole population.

    In terms of 4% Lab lead, it shows how transient voters memories can be, but also how much they dislike internal division. Labour solidarity or Tory coalition of chaos, we'll take Jezza, thank you.
    The fieldwork on the previous poll was done the day the Labour MPs defected to create TIG. What started as an anti-Labour story quickly developed with the Tories joining two days later - which I suspect explains a lot of the movement between the two polls.

    At least there is evidence that Labour's new fence is no less appealing that its earlier one.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: slightly annoyed with myself for not setting up a hedge on Bottas. I did consider it... but didn't do it. Interesting qualifying, though. Will likely put the pre-race ramble up this evening.
  • Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,767

    The Democrat candidate everyone on pb should be interested in is Andrew Yang. This is not an endorsement.

    Given his name, is he a Manchurian candidate?
    I doubt it. He's just trying to make a Korea in politics like all the others.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    I am late, but condolences to you and your family, Big G.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    My condolences, Mr. NorthWales.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The Democrat candidate everyone on pb should be interested in is Andrew Yang. This is not an endorsement.

    Given his name, is he a Manchurian candidate?
    No but he should be a profitable one.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    My condolences, Mr. NorthWales.

    +1
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Survation have Labour in the lead.

    The DM are being misleading in the presentation of the other questions because the charts show Conservative voters only.

    image


    Perhaps the 'we need a GE' Tories will pipe down a bit with a few more Lab leads in play.

    Still only 36% of all voters thinking MPs should back the deal, and referendum more popular than it.

    Not surprised her quitting is not thought to help the deal - people have been spinning for that one long enough.
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Can I just buff my nails and say that I mentioned Peter Buttigeig first - at least on here.
    But can you pronounce his name ?

    I cannot.
    36% is pretty much in line with Yougov's figure from a couple of days ago, which also showed similar Conservative support for the deal.
    With better political salesmanship and statecraft, you could easily see public opinion for the deal reaching well in the mid-40s or higher.

    Unfortunately, Mrs. May doesn't do that.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I have just seen the Survation poll.. Does anybody believe these polls any more.. The 10% Tory leads are about as likely as this 4% Labour lead.. They are all fish and chip paper with no credence whatsoever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    My condolences, Mr. NorthWales.

    +1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    I have just seen the Survation poll.. Does anybody believe these polls any more.. The 10% Tory leads are about as likely as this 4% Labour lead.. They are all fish and chip paper with no credence whatsoever.

    Public opinion is quite fluid, right now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Survation have Labour in the lead.

    The DM are being misleading in the presentation of the other questions because the charts show Conservative voters only.

    image


    Perhaps the 'we need a GE' Tories will pipe down a bit with a few more Lab leads in play.

    Still only 36% of all voters thinking MPs should back the deal, and referendum more popular than it.

    Not surprised her quitting is not thought to help the deal - people have been spinning for that one long enough.
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK. So, my thoughts on the US Democratic race

    1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
    2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
    3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
    4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
    5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
    6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
    7. Cory Who?

    Can I just buff my nails and say that I mentioned Peter Buttigeig first - at least on here.
    But can you pronounce his name ?

    I cannot.
    36% is pretty much in line with Yougov's figure from a couple of days ago, which also showed similar Conservative support for the deal.
    With better political salesmanship and statecraft, you could easily see public opinion for the deal reaching well in the mid-40s or higher.

    Unfortunately, Mrs. May doesn't do that.
    It's second best for a lot of people.
  • Just seen your very sad news Big G ... it's difficult to express our thoughts in a few words on a site such as this but I hope all the expressions of sympathy and support from so many PBers help in a small way to show how we really care about your sorrow.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    I have just seen the Survation poll.. Does anybody believe these polls any more.. The 10% Tory leads are about as likely as this 4% Labour lead.. They are all fish and chip paper with no credence whatsoever.

    All the polls have large MOEs and differences in methodologies. None of them can be interpreted on their own. You need to combine them, gradually reducing the weighting on older polls. That is what my Exponentially weighted Moving Average does (EMA).

    Including the latest three GB polls and two Scottish Westminster polls, the EMA shows the Tories 4% ahead of Labour with the following seat totals:

    Con 326
    Lab 242
    LD 20
    UKIP 0
    PC 3
    Grn 1
    SNP 40
    NI 18

    Tory overall majority of two.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
  • Scott_P said:
    I saw VC being interviewed on Sky News during the crucial HoC votes on Thursday evening about the invisibility of the LibDems in all the Brexit business, which he totally failed to contest. Appropriately, after a very brief period, the cameras cut away from him to follow something infinitely more important.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,767

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    I thought that after Hamilton new rules were brought in that candidates couldn't stand without Central Office approval. I think that was what did for Howard Flight in 2005. Could be wrong though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    I'd also like to add my condolences to Big_G. I'm sorry to hear the news.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    On the header topic, i believe third place will be between Plaid and ATWA. Plaid have been doing well in recent Welsh polls and will pick up Remain & Euref2 supporters. ATWA will replace UKIP as the main home for reactionary gammons.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
    If Boris loses the Tory whip, can he stand as a candidate for leader?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Barnesian said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
    If Boris loses the Tory whip, can he stand as a candidate for leader?
    Nope.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,767
    Barnesian said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
    If Boris loses the Tory whip, can he stand as a candidate for leader?
    No, because only members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party are eligible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    They have to be in the party.

    Totnes is currently going through the process of selecting a new candidate because the current MP is no longer a member of the party.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Snowing pretty hard here this morning.

    Not the most exciting by election. Peterborough will be more interesting, especially if May has got any sort of a deal through by then.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,767
    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    That conjured a strange mental image...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    Time to castrate the ERG.
  • Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    They have to be in the party.

    Totnes is currently going through the process of selecting a new candidate because the current MP is no longer a member of the party.
    Was she in fact ever a true member?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited March 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?

    If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other loyalists?

    Lots of questions.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Apparently it might still be possible to hold EU elections in the UK later than May 23.

    As long as it’s done before July 1st .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Just seen your very sad news Big G ... it's difficult to express our thoughts in a few words on a site such as this but I hope all the expressions of sympathy and support from so many PBers help in a small way to show how we really care about your sorrow.

    :+1:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Barnesian said:



    Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?

    If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other loyalists?

    Lots of questions.

    Ah yes, the Chief Whip - the chap who abstained on a key vote last week.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    The supplemententries are the interesting questions. Show Conservative supporters are well out of line in terms of support for the various Brexit options. And also no-one really like May's Deal. Almost everyone has a preferred other option.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited March 2019

    Barnesian said:



    Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?

    If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other loyalists?

    Lots of questions.

    Ah yes, the Chief Whip - the chap who abstained on a key vote last week.
    He should lose the Whip. Who decides? Is it him? She should replace him with a loyalist. It would bolster her authority.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?

    If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other lotalists?

    Lots of questions.
    The main leadership question I have is this. Imagine you’re a self-obsessed politician who has to date identified taking a hard line on Brexit as your best chance of a route to the top job. We might call him Dominic but let’s call him Boris for the purpose of the question.

    Things are coming to the crunch and many of your colleagues who to date you had thought reliably boneheaded are showing signs of thinking. Your lifeboat is an iceberg and it’s melting. What does Boris do? Does he jump off now and face derision for his scheming? Or does he stay on, risking being part of an irrelevant group of a handful of MPs on the one hand or, if he successfully blocks the deal, irrevocably alienating the group of MPs he needs to have supporting him on the other?

    Boris looks skewered to me either way.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Boris Johnson would be the most popular choice among Tory voters to replace Theresa May as leader, according to a YouGov poll for The Times.

    The proportion of voters who want Mrs May to stand down as leader has not changed since this time last year despite the Brexit chaos. However, when respondents were asked to choose, the former foreign secretary, who has the highest name recognition of potential contenders, came out on top.

    The YouGov poll of 1,756 British voters on Thursday and Friday suggested that Mrs May is likely to be replaced by a Brexiteer and that Mr Johnson is more liked by the Tory ranks than by the country as a whole, though he tops the list for both.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/239dbf2e-476f-11e9-924d-9729bcd51a7f

    Which is why he won't get on the ballot.....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:



    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?

    If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other lotalists?

    Lots of questions.
    The main leadership question I have is this. Imagine you’re a self-obsessed politician who has to date identified taking a hard line on Brexit as your best chance of a route to the top job. We might call him Dominic but let’s call him Boris for the purpose of the question.

    Things are coming to the crunch and many of your colleagues who to date you had thought reliably boneheaded are showing signs of thinking. Your lifeboat is an iceberg and it’s melting. What does Boris do? Does he jump off now and face derision for his scheming? Or does he stay on, risking being part of an irrelevant group of a handful of MPs on the one hand or, if he successfully blocks the deal, irrevocably alienating the group of MPs he needs to have supporting him on the other?

    Boris looks skewered to me either way.
    Yup. He'd be ruffling his hair - if he hadn't had it cut. Oh the irony!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a great many Conservatives would be delighted if the ground opened and swallowed up Mark Francois, Christopher Chope, Bill Cash, Dominic Grieve et al, but they're stuck with them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    They have to be in the party.

    Totnes is currently going through the process of selecting a new candidate because the current MP is no longer a member of the party.
    Was she in fact ever a true member?
    Yes, I believe so. She was always a member of the Awkward Squad, but she voted reliably with the Govt. until she found Brexit and Twitter.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sean_F said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a great many Conservatives would be delighted if the ground opened and swallowed up Mark Francois, Christopher Chope, Bill Cash, Dominic Grieve et al, but they're stuck with them.
    But not necessarily for ever:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6793339/Andrew-Pierce-discusses-Dominic-Grieves-no-confidence-vote.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Boris looks skewered to me either way.

    Ironically his best chance might be to denounce Brexit and all it's works, in a "Nixon in China" Hail Mary...
  • Boris Johnson would be the most popular choice among Tory voters to replace Theresa May as leader, according to a YouGov poll for The Times.

    The proportion of voters who want Mrs May to stand down as leader has not changed since this time last year despite the Brexit chaos. However, when respondents were asked to choose, the former foreign secretary, who has the highest name recognition of potential contenders, came out on top.

    The YouGov poll of 1,756 British voters on Thursday and Friday suggested that Mrs May is likely to be replaced by a Brexiteer and that Mr Johnson is more liked by the Tory ranks than by the country as a whole, though he tops the list for both.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/239dbf2e-476f-11e9-924d-9729bcd51a7f

    Which is why he won't get on the ballot.....

    YouGov cautioned that name recognition plays a big part in such results.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    The Telegraph during the week had only two Cabinet members supporting the Prime Minister.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited March 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Less than 10k signatures needed for the second referendum petition to reach its target.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235138
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    The Telegraph during the week had only two Cabinet members supporting the Prime Minister.
    I believe they all supported her deal in MV2.
  • Just seen your very sad news Big G ... it's difficult to express our thoughts in a few words on a site such as this but I hope all the expressions of sympathy and support from so many PBers help in a small way to show how we really care about your sorrow.

    :+1:
    :+1
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Like Survation this to some extent reflects Labour recovery from the TIG week. But the Tory decline is striking and frankly seems overdue in the light of recent events.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Scott_P said:
    It is going to be fascinating to see if, by time of next GE (assuming that is a couple of years away) whether Remainers will have forgiven Jezza and will prioritise GTTO, or whether he will pay a very heavy price.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    AndyJS said:

    Less than 10k signatures needed for the second referendum petition to reach its target.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235138

    Thanks. One can only try.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
    My understanding is that Arlene Foster is pretty much on board. But, she's not the only key figure.

    The Tories have not been disciplined since the fall of Thatcher.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    I would think Plaid to finish third is the value here, no?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Like Survation this to some extent reflects Labour recovery from the TIG week. But the Tory decline is striking and frankly seems overdue in the light of recent events.
    Though, Yougov show no boost for Labour, but rather, a Con to UKIP and Brexit swing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
    My understanding is that Arlene Foster is pretty much on board. But, she's not the only key figure.

    The Tories have not been disciplined since the fall of Thatcher.
    When you have a large majority like Blair had you can tolerate the odd nutter like Corbyn or Cash. When you are a minority government rather less so.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Toms said:

    AndyJS said:

    Less than 10k signatures needed for the second referendum petition to reach its target.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235138

    Thanks. One can only try.
    Just signed. Thanks for the prompt.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited March 2019
    .
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
    The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,093
    FF43 said:

    I would think Plaid to finish third is the value here, no?

    That would be my punt too.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    _Anazina_ said:
    To be fair 20 miles a day for 14 consecutive days is pretty difficult with a zimmer frame.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    _Anazina_ said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
    The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
    I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited March 2019
    The dilemma about the backstop for the DUP is strangely the same as for the Irish government on the other side of the equation. Neither can trust a future hardcore UK government won't shaft them on their issue and so has no reason to compromise on an agreement that would allow that shafting to take place.

    The only thing that _might_ influence DUP thinking is that they hold the balance of power now, that disappears at the next election. So they have to use their leverage while they still have it. But it's pretty weak given how existential this issue is for them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    The hardcore who are happy to remain rather than deal are doing fine. But any Tories or Labour who do eventually want to deal and have been sodding about even when MV2 was clearly the last chance before a vote on no deal etc? They are looking very stupid right now.

    More practically, comments like Sandbach’s, which are not unreasonable, just gives hardliners even more reason not to switch - it won’t pass even then if she switches as well.

    I believe she supported MV2.
    Yes, I know, the first pata related to the mythical labour and Tories who supposedly want to back the deal but didn't, the second points out not everyone who backed the deal at mv2 might do the same at mv2.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.

    Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?

    If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other lotalists?

    Lots of questions.
    The main leadership question I have is this. Imagine you’re a self-obsessed politician who has to date identified taking a hard line on Brexit as your best chance of a route to the top job. We might call him Dominic but let’s call him Boris for the purpose of the question.

    Things are coming to the crunch and many of your colleagues who to date you had thought reliably boneheaded are showing signs of thinking. Your lifeboat is an iceberg and it’s melting. What does Boris do? Does he jump off now and face derision for his scheming? Or does he stay on, risking being part of an irrelevant group of a handful of MPs on the one hand or, if he successfully blocks the deal, irrevocably alienating the group of MPs he needs to have supporting him on the other?

    Boris looks skewered to me either way.
    He probably has to jump off, but portray it as statesmanship.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    DavidL said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
    The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
    I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
    I find him ludicrous (codpiece rubbish) and pompous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll say it again.

    We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.

    Thank you the ERG you morons.

    Probably neither.
    Indeed. Yet another PB overreaction to the latest random number generator from the pollsters.
    Commenting and reacting doesn't mean overreaction, particularly when its a regular comment like TSE, you overreact to people's reactions more than they overreact.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Speaking of jaw-dropping stupidity, did we do 1) the present Brexit secretary voting against a motion he had just spoken in favour of; and 2) his predecessor cautioning us at length against hyperbolical use of the term 'catastrophe' in the same interview in which he described taking 'no deal' off the table as a catastrophic step in negotiating a deal?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Scott_P said:
    Could be a win for second referendum people, if he can't continue as a Tory then even though he has been against it he might come around to the idea of a second referendum.

    He doesn't seem like a potential Tigger but then I thought that about Soubry as well, though she is a bit different.
  • Scott_P said:
    That's Michael Gove's former leadership campaign manager.

    Another reason Gove probably regrets backing Leave now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    The hardcore who are happy to remain rather than deal are doing fine. But any Tories or Labour who do eventually want to deal and have been sodding about even when MV2 was clearly the last chance before a vote on no deal etc? They are looking very stupid right now.

    More practically, comments like Sandbach’s, which are not unreasonable, just gives hardliners even more reason not to switch - it won’t pass even then if she switches as well.

    I believe she supported MV2.
    Yes, I know, the first pata related to the mythical labour and Tories who supposedly want to back the deal but didn't, the second points out not everyone who backed the deal at mv2 might do the same at mv2.
    Given that 17 Labour MP's broke ranks to oppose a second referendum, there likely are some who would back the Deal, given sufficient reason.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    edited March 2019
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
    The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
    I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
    I find him ludicrous (codpiece rubbish) and pompous.
    Referencing 'man on the Clapham omnibus' in his meeting with EU officials would not to my mind attest to a fine sense of judgement. Having said that, in comparison with most of the others currently sitting round the Cabinet table, he's positively statesmanlike.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Off-Topic

    If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.

    In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:

    For the May Deal ................ 280

    Against the May Deal ......... 353

    Majority Against the Deal .... 73

    That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
    If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.

    She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.

    Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
    As many times as people float that idea I never understand what difference it will make. No one claiming principled objection can claim to switch support just because May will go since the deal is the same. The labour potential votes won't care and she might be replaced by someone worse. And whether she says it now or not this is someone who cannot even sack rebellious ministers, she wont last long even if the deal does pass.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Scott_P said:
    Speaking of jaw-dropping stupidity, did we do 1) the present Brexit secretary voting against a motion he had just spoken in favour of; and 2) his predecessor cautioning us at length against hyperbolical use of the term 'catastrophe' in the same interview in which he described taking 'no deal' off the table as a catastrophic step in negotiating a deal?
    I thought 2 was Baker not Raab?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    DavidL said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
    The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
    I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
    It's part of the act. But Cox is stupid in the way that highly intelligent people can be. He created a completely unnecessary legal hole for himself and expected the EU to abandon all their red lines to get him out of it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll say it again.

    We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.

    Thank you the ERG you morons.

    Probably neither.
    Indeed. Yet another PB overreaction to the latest random number generator from the pollsters.
    Commenting and reacting doesn't mean overreaction, particularly when its a regular comment like TSE, you overreact to people's reactions more than they overreact.
    On the substantive I think that poll is a taster of what is to come if the Tories don't deliver some sort of Brexit.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    DavidL said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
    After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
    I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
    All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
    I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.

    Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
    I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
    The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
    I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
    No he isn't.
This discussion has been closed.