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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on a Peterborough by election in 2019
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on a Peterborough by election in 2019
This market by Ladbrokes is not on the result of any potential by election but whether there will be one in 2019. The recall petition in Peterborough opens on Tuesday and ends on the 1st of May 2019 meaning this bet will pay out in a little over six weeks.
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Oh and you mean "stand down", not "stand" in the last para
It nearly happened this week with the Benn amendment.
PS enjoy the ice twins!
Mr Eagles, that is just painful. My inner John Cleese is unsheathing his gladius with the words 'plural, plural,' ringing in his ears.
F1: post-race ramble about an interesting race and green weekend is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2019.html
https://twitter.com/trevorsumner/status/1106934362531155974?s=20
Will be a big grudge match when the by-election comes about though.
Sone interesting comments from Philip Hammond this morning. Clearly, a deft mixture of carrot and stick is being applied to get the DUP on side and clearly Foster and Dobbs are fully aware of the power they hold and the price they will try to exact will be an object lesson to future smaller parties negotiating with the Conservatives.
As the phrase has it "if you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will soon follow".
The other aspect though is the desperate attempt to avoid a third voting humiliation for the Prime Minister or perhaps sensing Bercow will reject a fourth meaningful vote. The WA won't be put before the Commons unless the Government thinks it will win which is reasonable enough. However, 29/3 awaits as does the EU summit next weekend.
IF there is no third vote on the WA how will the EU react in terms of granting a meaningful extension to May ? Will she have to concede she won't get the WA through in time? Again, all impossible to know at this time but the WA won't be on the Order Paper unless the Conservative Whips know or are confident they have a majority.
Torfaen: Lab to IND
Worcester: Green to Con
TIG needs some publicity. Outside Parliament all they seem to be doing are online petitions in the style of change.org
Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, said the 230,000 applications represented a 30% increase on the same period last year.
It puts 2019 on course for the highest level of applications in the history of the country, after a record 860,000 Irish passports issued last year, with around 200,000 coming from the UK.
She can, of course, revoke A50 now and, after further time to consider options, re-instigate the A50 process. That makes sense in terms of the national interest, whether it does for the interest of the Conservative Party is a different question.
No one in the Cabinet cares any more - Rudd, Gauke and others are in open revolt and she simply lacks the authority to do anything. In office but not in power as was mentioned a few days ago.
Agreed on TIG. I know their job is hard, and they are not even a new party yet, but if they want to achieve more than they already have in scaring the main two (particularly Labour) they need something to give them a jolt.
The only downsides I can think of is the potential risk of the government motion being amended in a way they didn't want it to be, or the desire to hold another MV but a lack of clarity on how many more times they might actually be able to.
I can relate to speeding. I can't relate to perverting the course of justice.
https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1107314663023353864
https://www.ancient-origins.net/myths-legends/carlingford-leprechauns-protected-european-union-are-they-real-007885
St Partick is the patron saint of lesser Glasgow football clubs
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/2D75/production/_90273611_mediaitem90273608.jpg
https://twitter.com/tees4europe/status/1107272200590163969?s=21
Beyond that, it has also stirred an brought back to the surface an ongoing torment relating to my own schooldays. From 1965 I attended a very strict Boys Grammar School in Pembrokeshire. The Headmaster - to whom I was distantly related -held his position from 1958 - 1978 when the school became a Comprehensive. He was by nature explosive, hot tempered and very impatient. He made regular use of corporal punishment, and I am aware that an incident occurred in early 1962 when a boy was so severely punished that his legs were made to bleed. His parents took the matter to the national press and received an apology.To be clear, I was never a victim and my own relationship was benign and sometimes vaguely amicable.
Much more recently I joined Facebook and became a member of the Group related to my old school.It emerged that the Group had existed since circa 2008 and I proceeded to read all the earlier contributions. In due course , I came across comments such as 'he was a nasty man ' -'feared but not respected' - and several old boys gave accounts of having been made to bleed by him on occasion whilst others stated they remained severely bruised for 3 to 5 weeks following a caning. I am partly legally trained and felt obliged to record my opinion on these episodes. In essence. I suggested that the boys concerned had not been punished but rather physically abused and that the Headmaster had committed Actual Bodily Harm -ABH - as set out in the Offences against the Person Act 1861. I fully understood that Corporal Punishment remained lawful in State Schools until Autumn 1987 - but Headmasters had never been free to do as they likedl. Chastisement had to be reasonable - and what was described went way beyond that! My comments set off a lively set of exchanges. I did receive a fair bit of support but also encountered opposition. Matters became quite heated , and I was eventually barred from membership after my suggestion that some were seeking to 'cover up' the Headmaster's misdeeds in the same way that the BBC had sought to 'cover up' the activities of Jimmy Saville et al.
The affair has affected my family relationships too. I have a female cousin - half a generation my senior - who shared my distant relationship to the Headmaster , but who knew him socially much better and was his secretary for his final two years. She is also a former Mayoress of the town - her husband having been Mayor in 1981/82 - and was later Clerk to the Community Council. She sent me a message on Facebook to the effect that she was appalled by my comments and asked me not to visit her when next in the area. I view her as part of the Local Establishment content to cover up such unwelcome details.
Going back to David Steel, I feel I have taken the other path to him - in that I have sought to put empathy for the victims before personal expediency. I do as though - Am I missing something here? Am I wrong? Very happy to receive comments - however critical or damning!
https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/17488067.worcester-councillor-quits-green-party-over-anti-semitism-and-joins-conservatives/
There is little honourable about it but is a very common human reaction. Standing by while evil happens is, I am sorry to say, the default in most humans. Heroes, those who speak up, who act, who march towards the sound of gunfire (metaphorically) rather than away from it are rare beasts. Courage - whether moral or physical - is admired because it is rare.
Most likely he didn't consider it serious enough to take further. Hodge and Corbyn stand accused of similar lack of rigour. So do Thatcher, Whitelaw, many bishops, the governors of your school...
Clearly, they were terribly wrong. But it wasn't something very unusual. It's one reason why there has been such a build up of cases now people feel freer to speak out and we are more willing to listen.
David Davis jumped out earlier. He, and perhaps Esther McVey, now look better placed.
Mark Rutte, who appeared visibly irritated last week at the failure of MPs to pass the Brexit deal, admitted feeling “angry” at the impasse in Westminster.
He said his frustration was focused on the posturing of those seeking to make party political points during a major national crisis but praised May’s “incredible” resilience in the face of repeated knock-backs in the House of Commons.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/17/dutch-pm-compares-theresa-may-to-monty-python-limbless-knight
Additionally, it seems to finally have dawned on these idiots that the WA is temporary and if the EU tries to make it permanent against our will we now have recourse to exit.
I really think that the PM has been awful with the messaging, too many people (MPs included) believe that the WA is the end state.