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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the no deal Blame Game
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the no deal Blame Game
There’s little doubt that the Mail’s front page this morning correctly sums up the current position in relation to brexit with just 8 days to go. Given what the EU response was to Theresa May’s request for more time and her ongoing desire to get her deal approved then there must be an increasing chance that No Deal becomes what happens.
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It is hardly surprising the likes of Grieve was furious yesterday but for loons like IDS it means no deal is a lot more likely. There is no chance of them backing the deal in these circumstances so she is dependent upon remainers deciding her deal is better. These would be the same people she was abusing on national TV last night, of course.
Surely a no deal, then managed as best we can would not be so bad. Matters will have to work. No deal looks by far the most likely outcome to me now and actually not the worst and wasn't no deal better than a bad deal?
Operation yellowhammer starts on Monday!
Labour Leave seat MPs can still vote against as their constituents are (mainly) happy with No Deal. Labour Remain MPs will vote against as their constituents want revoke.
Put bluntly May could present her deal 1,000 times it won't make any difference.
May is in her charmless way looking to put together a majority of remainers and the few of her party that still pay any attention to the whip. She seems unconcerned that the majority of her own party may well vote against her. That leadership challenge by the ERG is looking one of the stupidest steps in an incredibly crowded and competitive field but we must now be in her final days, I am tempted to say hours.
The problem isn't just the blame for letting No Deal happen, which will *mostly* attach to them. It's also for all the specific things that will go wrong that could theoretically have been planned for. There's no way for a government to do something like this, even with good planning and excellent people, and come out of it looking competent. And this government doesn't have good planning and excellent people, to put it mildly.
One thing will unite the nation, from left to right, brexit to remain: The government bollocksed up the implementation.
And that gives everyone a way out - put revoke to a vote and see who actually votes against.
Farage, Corbyn, the right-wing press, everybody will be saying the same thing: It wasn't the concept. It was the implementation.
Get yourselves together Tiggers or Lib Dems or Greens bcause after this is over we're going to need you.
There is clearly a big element of brinkmanship from the EU playing on a divided house in the UK.
This is the way things always go with EU matters - always down to the wire, forcing or making hay with political disunity and disfunction in member countries.
Right at the start of this process so many people predicted it would come down to the last minute and the EU would extract max concessions from the UK.
Ultimately I have no doubt the EU wants a more EU friendly government in London, and a reversal of Brexit.
It has friends in the UK parliament towards this.
This is a huge struggle for power and sovereignty in the UK. this is why it has turned into a huge crisis and the language used is our subjugation, capitulation to, or freedom from the EU.
I think the EU will be blamed as much as the UK parliament for no deal, when it happens next week. But both share the blame for not getting a better outcome earlier.
Politically, he has been the weakest and least relevant Chancellor I can recall. Even Darling had more sway and influence and he was dealing with a true madman.
In short I am somewhat unpersuaded of his indispensability.
I no longer feel any terror of No Deal. There will be bumps, but none of the worst fears will be realised and the Government will introduce emergency tax cuts to boost the economy. It will also make Brexit totally irreversible.
He certainly wouldn’t go on national TV and tell them what arses they were being.
I think we’re back in the realms of 100+ defeat. Any hint of goodwill on both sides will have gone, especially from the bulging intersection in the Venn diagram “Backwoods Eurosceptics/Men of a certain vintage who don’t appreciate being told what to do by a woman”. To have any chance, this needed a ‘one last push, and if X will vote for it then I can’ dynamic. That has been replaced by ‘screw you’.
Given how much time has run down and how many options have been removed, No Deal feels like a prominent challenger now. TM has made it clear she won’t countenance other options, and the opposition lacks the cojones and co-ordination to make her. Tory rebellion is unlikely to unseat her in 8 days; even a HoC VONC couldn’t give a stable government before DDay.
I’ve been a firm “the deal will probably get there in the end” peddler until now. But I’m not so sure today.
"My adoring public love me, darlings."
They'll get a nasty shock when they meet the real public.
Jeremy has been right in that respect.
Without a legal change we are now 8 days from departing the EU deal or no deal!
Everyone this way for the departure lounge!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/20/bus-full-children-set-alight-angry-driver-retaliation-migrant/
"he perception is that in her inept, incompetent, mildly autistic way May has done her best to prevent no deal."
Exactly.
Doesn't matter if you held pocket Aces if you fold them.
One cannot be so generous in respect of the Labour Leadership, which has been weak, shifty, inconsistent and marginal throughout.
That said, I have full confidence that he has a full suite of emergency measures ready to go for when we leave with no deal.
The HOC is going to be overwhelmed next week with various tactics and even indicative votes but if MV3 falls, as is more than possible, we must be heading out on a no deal. No deal is default and the only immediate way of stopping it is MV3
The EU are suggesting they will call a crisis meeting next thursday and that will be the 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed moment'
I have no confidence in our warring mps resolving anything until they have no choice. That arrives next friday
There does however remain a majority in the Commons for a SM and Customs Union BINO over EUref2, No Deal or the Deal, even if it takes a minority Corbyn Government to get there propped up by the SNP that remains the likely long term shape of Brexit
The trouble was at the same time she actively antagonised the people she needs to support her and has did nothing to fix the flaws in her approach. There is nothing in her deal to win over Labour Leavers or soft Remainers. If anything there is an off putting tone reminiscent of her days in the home office.
Faced with the failure of her brinkmanship, she did not adapt she dug in. Nothing changed. She and her supporters now want others to rescue her. The cavalry is not coming.
Will anyone be willing to say I/we have really screwed up by voting for/supporting/ wishing for X? Of course I can see the problem that if you do put your head above the parapet of regret you're immediately accused of being a liar.
From the outside, it's much simpler. The PM, a Remainer thrust into the role of negotiating Brexit, comes back with a deal from the EU. It's not great, but all there is on offer. The MPs who had no intention of honouring their promises, have been voting against everything to stop progress.
The PM, in a valedictory speech, tells the truth, and the MPs react like the spoilt, lying children they are. She may be incompetent (she is), not the brightest (but not in Jezza's class as dumb), but she's straightforward and honest for once.
Like slugs sprinkled with salt, the MPs thrash around, spitting defiance. At the end, she has exposed their failings and they don't like it. Schadenfreude with a vengeance.
I think the only way of stopping Brexit is to pass a VONC.
Which doesn't prevent No Deal unless a Revoker PM can command the confidence of the House, by next weekend.
That's why today's trending petition is going to be the main discussion in parliament in the very near future. It's the only option parliament hasn't discussed yet so I suspect Bercow will insist on people voting for it and owning the result..
Bercow does not have that much power
All No Deal will likely lead to is SM and Customs Union BINO or we rejoin the EU with the Euro and Schengen never to squeak again
The trouble is the context of the referendum + the make up of parliament has meant that the UK doesn't have the capacity or ability to negotiate effectively. So, the two alternatives are crashing out, or submitting to an unfavourable agreement.
PS Hunt on R4 Today just now is definitely after the top job.
People sympathised with Major.
Utterly off-topic, but some excellent news might be a welcome distraction:
https://twitter.com/BillandTed3/status/1108405344802242560