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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckonin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckoning
Has Britain finally reached a decision point? Still the outcome seems in doubt. Many others are writing about what comes next. But how did we get here?
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It appears it is now after last and no longer first.
This is very much like Brexit
They've already voted on this, so I'm not sure they can do so again.
*innocent face*
Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week
I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...
I am hopelessly lost now.
While a delay and soft Brexit might be the only option left it does of course spell huge trouble for the Tory Party as Michael Portillo said on TW last night. The notion the 70% Leave voting activist, membership and voter base will take kindly to a set of Euro elections and a long delay to Brexit is for the birds.
But with a huge caveat. Germany has proposed - for the first time in a decade - an expansionary budget. Spending is increasing, while taxes are being reduced. In total the effect should be about a 1% boost to GDP. (Which is small change compared to President Trump's budget, but is massive for Germany.)
So, all in all, I'd expect that the "core" Germany economy will probably slow from growth of 1.7-1.8% to perhaps just 0.2-0.3%, but this will be largely offset by government spending and tax cuts. My estimate: GDP growth of 1.2-1.3% in 2019.
Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix
Pike is already cast......
Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
Private Fraser: Corbyn
Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove
And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.
REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
Whose side is she really on?
Sincerely yours,
Jeremy Corbyn.
Why fight a lost cause, do something that unites the house and maybe keeps her as PM
I am not overly optimistic.
https://www.survation.com/archive/2019-2/
As far as I can tell, support for No Deal, May's Deal, and Brexit generally runs at 70-75% among Conservative voters, among a range of pollsters.
All but half a dozen Conservative MPs know they've got to deliver some form of Brexit if they want to satisfy their voters.
Currently 14m short of 17.4m
It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.
when the EU say the current deal is the only deal they can offer and only one possible - is that based on TMay's red-lines basis OR is it the case even if Jezza (but actually Starmer) were doing the negotiations? if the latter then this CCU stuff is as pointless as the unicorns and owls isn't it?
I view May's Deal as the platform for a 'softish' Brexit that neither panders to Hard Leavers nor tramples roughshod over Remainers.
The only legally binding part of the Deal is the WA, which via the Backstop steers to a closely aligned Future Relationship.
This displeases Hard Leavers, being less than a clean break, and it displeases Hard Remainers, being less than staying in the EU.
It is, in other words, just the sort of compromise that one would have hoped and expected the government to have negotiated.
3.5m for Remain
Old buggers dont have Computers!!!
https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb64
https://twitter.com/ConorBurnsUK/status/1109129647265062912
OH, hang on a minute:
The question of a second referendum was raised by Mr Farage in an interview with the Mirror in which he said: "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
Following on, here you have support for Brexit among Conservatives ranging from 70% for May's Deal, to 72% for No Deal, to 74% to Brexit in general.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/26b2mrd7yn/PeoplesVote_March19th_SnapPoll_final_updated_w.pdf
Provisionally, I'd conclude that Conservative voters are fairly relaxed about the form that Brexit takes, so long as it takes place.
https://www.fnp.de/frankfurt/frankfurt-hessen-sek-einsatz-nied-heusingerstrasse-zr-11876564.html
[As an aside, Ginger Spice is now married to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner].
And who can blame them.
She's had a chance. MPs need to seize this now, and ignore her. In office but not in power.
(i) No deal exit on 12/4.
(ii) Exit on 22/5 via the WA only (with the PD put on ice pending further talks).
And either way, a new Tory leader and a GE in the summer.
I'd like a representation on stuff like Article 13 ta very much if we're in the club.
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1109136096770883586