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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Viewcode on the chronicle of a bet foretold
It is 11pm on March 21st 2019 as I write this. Press releases from EUCO indicate that an unconditional extension is granted to the UK, rendering my bet on departing the EU on March 29th lost. It may be instructive therefore to examine the bet: its aim, placement, and implications.
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I assume Brexit is all sorted by now - how did it all turn out in the end?
Once again, the EU proves harmful to the economic interest of sensible Britons.
Like the IDS of May (Not sure who said that below, but was quite amusing)
Betfair Exchange does now have a "No Deal in 2019" market, currently at 4.3-5.5, which seems like reasonably good value if people want to cover themselves against other consequences of No Deal. I don't know whether they're offering something similar offline.
The Brexit précis is that we're are now not leaving the EU thanks to the brilliance of the ERG.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1109787378242240514
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1109787694828322816
Looks like someone knows they've got away it... I mean they're innocent.
'What, like post her election in 1975?
What you forget is that she was a skilled politician. Very skilled.
She only lost it post GE1987. '
I would not accept that Thatcher was a particularly effective Opposition Leader. As PM in a Hung Parliament she would not have been able to obtain concensus from other parties - bar the Unionists. Beyond that she would have faced serious dissent from the 'Wets' and Heathites within the Tory ranks.
Time to bin it?
Blair never managed it, Corbyn hasn't, yet.
Is that the real Melania or a fake Melania?
Ivanka's emails?
Is Jared going to replace Pence as VP.
Anderson Cooper, Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon will have to find a way to fill 3 hours of prime time a night before the Democratic primary debates start.
I will very much enjoy the odious pathetic Bone not having his party on the 29th .
Love the new atavar.
You assume another 15 will follow the UK out?
...Oh, I see our glorious LINO has managed to kick the can a bit further. Quelle surprise!
I keep coming back to John Brennan, he was director of the CIA when all of this kicked off, and to say he holds Trump in contempt would be putting it very mildly. People in the know seem to have no doubt that Trump is a crook.
Of course being a crook, and being punished for being a crook, are two different things. One thing is almost certain though, whatever happens to Trump history will judge him very harshly.
I said this before, Trump has now to be on the hook for something really big, otherwise he plays his Fake News, told you they were Fake News mega-phone on repeat.
It is like they OTT reporting on Cameron over phone-hacking, where borrowing a horse from a neighbour was all of a sudden crime of the century.
To think the UK is now the home of the largest pro EU movement in Europe, thank Boris, Govey, and the ERG.
* wouldn't exactly be shocking to find out that e.g. the Moscow hotel deal.
Also the indictments are an indicator. If this conspiracy is true, all of Team Trump would be in the doo doo, not just the Donald. So the fact, they are saying no more, suggests that the worse Mueller is going to say about that is that it doesn't look good, but not enough evidence to proceed.
Marvellous! Maybe that was Jacob Cream-Cracker's plan all along; after all he does have all that money stashed in the EU.
Trump will big up the last point and double down on the witch hunt narrative . The fact there are no further indictments doesn’t mean he’s in the clear just that Mueller understands he can’t indict Trump as he’s President .
Of course there will be a few thousand fraudulent signatures on there which no doubt completely invalidates it in the eyes of some.
The stocks may appreciate in value, pay dividends and he/she can probably get some kind of tax relief e.g. SIPP/ISA.
It also doesn't mean a petition matters more than a vote.
https://twitter.com/markkwiatkowski/status/1109846618168266753
Have flown on all of them except BOAC....
When UKIP first achieved prominence in 2013/15, support for EU membership rose markedly. If Brexit is revoked, support for leaving will increase.
'twas the petition started by a Leaver, BEFORE the 2016 vote, calling for a second referendum, that after 2016 became suddenly popular with Remainers.
I can work/live with that analogy.
Contrary to suggestions offered earlier they don't seem to block re-use of an email at point of use. I presume they do a trawl periodically to remove duplicates - does anyone know?
Pour le Président, il n’y a pas d’autre choix que de «respecter le choix démocratique des Britanniques», contrairement à ce qui a été fait en France après le rejet du traité constitutionnel européen en 2005, a-t-il tenu à préciser.
https://www.liberation.fr/planete/2019/03/22/bruxelles-apres-le-brexit-le-conseil-europeen-des-chefs-d-etat-s-acheve-sur-le-debut-des-discussions_1716870
Also, if you try to use the same email twice, your second attempt gets a rejected email, as I understand it. Someone posted it up here yesterday.
Mind you wasn't a second referendum first suggested by several Leavers before the 2016 vote too?
I have to admit it the whole Brexit project has been a wonderfully run exercise in self-destruction by the Brexiteers. Now they are destroying the project itself.
Maybe Vladimir has decided it's served its purpose?
Nevertheless the inexorably steady round-the-clock (slower at night) rise in the number of signatures, the entirely credible distribution of postcodes, and the number of people prepared to spend time and money pitching up in central London, suggests the total isn't unrealistic. Surely almost everyone who attended yesterday had signed, and they only need one or two friends or family members to have signed also to justify the total.
You're even allowed to sign from Dubai, if you like...
However I shall retire the use of this picture unless the thread writer specifies it.
In terms of our politics the marches and petitions are meaningless. So why be annoyed about people expressing their views.
It’s what the liberal metropolitan elite do best.
... Just teasing ya, TSE. *awaits ban hammer*
That would surely be worth a try. Bercow would accept it. Labour would find it difficult (not impossible) to whip against but many Labour MPs would abstain or vote for it anyway imho.
Although it wouldn't be my desired outcome, I suspect Deal would win that referendum.
But I disagree in that I think the market still reckons No Deal is unlikely.
It is 4.4 on betfair to happen in 2019. There must be some possibility of No Deal in 2020/later, but that would seem much less likely than No Deal this year. So overall the market is pricing No Deal at something like 25-30% probability... so not at all fully priced in.
Do you mean those Tory MPs who voted for the Deal last time (a large majority of whom are 'on the govt payroll') would rebel?
Or do you mean the party members would revolt? If so, what do you think they would do? - They are powerless in the short term.