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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With all the questions over TMay’s future punters it a tad les

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With all the questions over TMay’s future punters it a tad less likely that she’ll be out soon

There’s little doubt that just about the worst thing that Theresa May has done during her short Premiership was the broadcast to the nation five nights go when she appeared to blame Parliament for the problems in getting her  brexit deal approved. It was that apparent denial of the democratic process that has angered a lot within the House and outside.

Read the full story here


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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    edited March 2019
    Second, like Lidington in a two horse race.
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    Second, like Lidington in a two horse race.

    No.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Though the Sun didn't exactly move the needle in GE2017....
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    The Democratic leader of the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer have released a joint statement: “Attorney General Barr’s letter raises as many questions as it answers.

    "The fact that Special Counsel Mueller’s report does not exonerate the president on a charge as serious as obstruction of justice demonstrates how urgent it is that the full report and underlying documentation be made public without any further delay.

    "Given Mr Barr’s public record of bias against the Special Counsel’s inquiry, he is not a neutral observer and is not in a position to make objective determinations about the report."
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    That's the thanks she gets for making all the phone hacking stuff go away... :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    I confess to being a little surprised there was such a reaction to May's statement. I feel like she had essentially said everything she said then previously in any case.

    I also confess to being very surprised that people are still acting like her setting out her resignation plans would seal it for the deal. I can see why it would get things closer, but the only reason I can assume she has not already done it is because she adjudges, correctly, that her doing so would not seal the deal and since it is the very final move she could possibly make, why make it when it won't secure that deal?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?

    I doubt they take the sun. More a telegraph household I reckon.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?

    I doubt they take the sun. More a telegraph household I reckon.
    Once upon a time maybe. I cannot imagine she likes reading the Daily Borisgraph.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,020
    alex. said:
    A rebrand of Norway Plus.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?

    I doubt they take the sun. More a telegraph household I reckon.
    Nah, I'd be surprised if they read anything other than the Daily May.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    kle4 said:

    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?

    I doubt they take the sun. More a telegraph household I reckon.
    Once upon a time maybe. I cannot imagine she likes reading the Daily Borisgraph.
    Good point...does anybody still read it?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    alex. said:
    Isn't Common Market 2.0 another unicorn? ;)
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    alex. said:
    As much of a unicorn as 'managed no deal.'

    It is BINO in its purest form.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    kle4 said:

    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?

    I doubt they take the sun. More a telegraph household I reckon.
    Once upon a time maybe. I cannot imagine she likes reading the Daily Borisgraph.
    Or the Evening Osborne.
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    kle4 said:

    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?

    I doubt they take the sun. More a telegraph household I reckon.
    Once upon a time maybe. I cannot imagine she likes reading the Daily Borisgraph.
    Good point...does anybody still read it?
    Boris does all day, all the time, but only his column
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    Danny565 said:

    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?

    I doubt they take the sun. More a telegraph household I reckon.
    Nah, I'd be surprised if they read anything other than the Daily May.
    I doubt they read any newspapers
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    God CNN are getting even worse...it is full on tin foil hat birther stuff.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    alex. said:
    It’s not Brexit.

    If we take the Single Market or the Customs Union, then we can have our own trade policy or an end to freedom of movement. The combination of the two makes Brexit a total waste of time, which is the intention of Boles and his acolytes.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    kle4 said:

    Who would like to be the paper boy at Number 10 tomorrow?

    I doubt they take the sun. More a telegraph household I reckon.
    Once upon a time maybe. I cannot imagine she likes reading the Daily Borisgraph.
    Good point...does anybody still read it?
    Not since they canned SeanT's blog from their website :)
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    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,020
    RoyalBlue said:

    alex. said:
    It’s not Brexit.

    If we take the Single Market or the Customs Union, then we can have our own trade policy or an end to freedom of movement. The combination of the two makes Brexit a total waste of time, which is the intention of Boles and his acolytes.
    Do you not think Boles is acting as a proxy for Gove?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    He’s seen his constituency petition numbers.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    alex. said:
    It’s not Brexit.

    If we take the Single Market or the Customs Union, then we can have our own trade policy or an end to freedom of movement. The combination of the two makes Brexit a total waste of time, which is the intention of Boles and his acolytes.
    Do you not think Boles is acting as a proxy for Gove?
    No.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    Theoretical question - what would happen if we revoked article 50, but failed to get the Euro election legislation through Parliament in time?

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Is...is this really what Boris's columns are like now, or is it just a spoof? Does he do anything but spew ignorant, grandiose vapidity peddling simplistic solutions to complex problems?

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1109941614305263619
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    It's in the EU's interest and that's probably enough.
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    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    ERG and others would create a firestorm in the HOC at the mere idea
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    Anything that's not May's deal or no deal would involve that though, right?
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    Now if ERG voted for that it would be the perfect ending to brexit

    Thay are not that silly - or are they
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    Correct.
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    kle4 said:

    Is...is this really what Boris's columns are like now, or is it just a spoof? Does he do anything but spew ignorant, grandiose vapidity peddling simplistic solutions to complex problems?

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1109941614305263619

    Genuine.
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    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    Anything that's not May's deal or no deal would involve that though, right?
    Indeed including revoke
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    ERG and others would create a firestorm in the HOC at the mere idea
    Yes, but the only way to avoid it is to pass the deal very soon, and they won't do that either, or for no deal to happen. Which they are trying to do of course, but I very much fear we will have to face EU elections again.

    On the bright side they will probably have more campaigning this time, usually they seem invisible round my way.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    Is...is this really what Boris's columns are like now, or is it just a spoof? Does he do anything but spew ignorant, grandiose vapidity peddling simplistic solutions to complex problems?

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1109941614305263619

    What do you mean, “now”? It’s all his columns have ever been like.
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    Now if ERG voted for that it would be the perfect ending to brexit

    Thay are not that silly - or are they
    They twice voted against Brexit because it wasn't Brexity enough. We're dealing with the hard of thinking here.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    TudorRose said:

    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    It's in the EU's interest and that's probably enough.
    Not to pass the Commons.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    ERG and others would create a firestorm in the HOC at the mere idea
    They are only 100 or so out of 650; they have not the power to stop it.
    .
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2019
    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    Scott_P said:

    More specifically, a tragedy in 3 acts.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    TudorRose said:

    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    It's in the EU's interest and that's probably enough.
    You mean you doubt that U.K. EU elections would lead to a massive vote for remain supporting parties as a precursor to an overwhelming vote to overturn the 2016 referendum...?
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I don't think anyone's really objecting per se, it's merely May's last attempt at framing the debate as her deal being the only possible solution.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    +1 Spot on.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Scott_P said:

    More specifically, a tragedy in 3 acts.
    Credit to her though, she did used to wear fabulous shoes. I feel like even her fashion sense has deteriorated recently?
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    Express blaming the 'Remainer plotters' - er, isn't the plotter in chief one M. Gove?
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    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    ERG and others would create a firestorm in the HOC at the mere idea
    Yes, but the only way to avoid it is to pass the deal very soon, and they won't do that either, or for no deal to happen. Which they are trying to do of course, but I very much fear we will have to face EU elections again.

    On the bright side they will probably have more campaigning this time, usually they seem invisible round my way.
    In just two weeks campaigning starts.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    TudorRose said:

    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    It's in the EU's interest and that's probably enough.
    Not to pass the Commons.
    Probably a statutory instrument, isn’t it? Not primary legislation or anything.
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    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    Tommy Robinson MEP.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    If they happen I don't think we will ever leave at all, but more importantly our politicians will just spin things out as long as humanly possible because there will be absolutely no urgency at all. I feel like the plan is to ensure we need to elect MEPs, then spring on the plans to referendum or revoke or whatever, and I'd prefer they make that choice now, rather than 'Oops, it's mid April with no decision, guess we need to sign up for a long extension because MEPs need to be in place, and, psych, now we will make the decision'.
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    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    +1 Spot on.
    And how do we get to take part in the EU elections in two weeks
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Maybe we can have a vote on whose sets of indicative votes the Commons should vote upon
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited March 2019
    That's true, although not having a majority and not controlling parliament doesn't stop Boles lecturing everyone about what should be done either. No doubt he's one who likes to talk about the government ignoring parliament, even when the government wins votes in Parliament and so parliament is endorsing it, however temporarily. No doubt when that happens with something he doesn't like he says MPs are being 'taken in' because they don't do what he wants?

    I think he has more in Common with May than he thinks.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    For someone still taking the Conservative whip he is showing a remarkable flexibility in his idea of loyalty to the leader.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    ERG and others would create a firestorm in the HOC at the mere idea
    Yes, but the only way to avoid it is to pass the deal very soon, and they won't do that either, or for no deal to happen. Which they are trying to do of course, but I very much fear we will have to face EU elections again.

    On the bright side they will probably have more campaigning this time, usually they seem invisible round my way.
    In just two weeks campaigning starts.
    If the elections happen, judging by sentiment in my own association there will be no Conservative campaigning whatsoever. The feeling is common to both Leavers and Remainers.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
    I see Murdoch has decided it is worth a serious punt on Boris winning rather than Hunt.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    Would it be that bad? You'd presumably get a cohort of Brexit party MEPs, and many Tory ones, who would be huge pains in the arse, but every single other MEP would be massively in favour of the EU.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I’m not sure that local councils will have done much planning for EU elections, and one can imagine they will therefore be totally chaotic, and quite possibly widely open to post election legal challenges.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Maybe we can have a vote on whose sets of indicative votes the Commons should vote upon
    Or a consultative referendum?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    She needs to change the game. Take the Kyle-Wilson deal, it'll get the WA through (assuming Leave wins) and save her job.

    Sorry if I am boring you but that amendment would require us to take part in the EU elections from the 12th April.
    It's be really great if we could avoid those, if only for the poor staff organising them, but is it in enough peoples' interest to avoid them?
    ERG and others would create a firestorm in the HOC at the mere idea
    They are only 100 or so out of 650; they have not the power to stop it.
    .
    I would expect most of the conservative party and many in labour would not accept the EU elections in 14 days time. This would go way beyond the ERG in the conservative party and add in the DUP I would expect a majority against in the HOC
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    I have not followed the Mueller stuff very closely, but my guess is that initial, sweeping takes and conclusions based on only very partial release of documentation and next to no knowledge of US law may turn out to look a bit silly a few weeks down the line.
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    For someone still taking the Conservative whip he is showing a remarkable flexibility in his idea of loyalty to the leader.
    I'm sure his loyalty will be different if Gove became leader.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    I can totally understand why the EU wouldn't be enthusiastic about us taking part in the elections (I'm surprised they're making it a condition of a long extension; if anything, I would've expected the condition to be that we'd promise NOT to take part in them), but I meant more from the British perspective. Of all the many reasons for and against delaying, taking part in an election seems pretty...second-order.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    alex. said:

    I’m not sure that local councils will have done much planning for EU elections, and one can imagine they will therefore be totally chaotic, and quite possibly widely open to post election legal challenges.

    I know they have tried to plan ahead for various scenarios, including the awful prospect of EU elections, referendum and GE all in the same year, but preparations would have been fully underway a long time ago in the ordinary course of things, it will probably not be pretty.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I think the objection is mainly that it would be a highly provocative (to Leavers) reminder than Brexit wasn't going ahead anytime soon. I think that's a pretty valid concern, TBH. But there are no good options, starting from where we are, so perhaps it's a problem we'll just have to put up with.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    For someone still taking the Conservative whip he is showing a remarkable flexibility in his idea of loyalty to the leader.
    He's hardly alone in that.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    Would it be that bad? You'd presumably get a cohort of Brexit party MEPs, and many Tory ones, who would be huge pains in the arse, but every single other MEP would be massively in favour of the EU.
    There will be very few Tory MEPs elected if it goes ahead. I would expect a majority of activists and many otherwise reliable supporters to vote for other parties or abstain.

    I would expect a poor third place on 20% of the vote.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    For someone still taking the Conservative whip he is showing a remarkable flexibility in his idea of loyalty to the leader.
    Well he’s just quit his local association, so probably doesn’t fancy his chances of fighting the next election. Is he recovered from his health issues as well.

    And, er, not as much flexibility as Johnson!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    More specifically, a tragedy in 3 acts.
    Credit to her though, she did used to wear fabulous shoes. I feel like even her fashion sense has deteriorated recently?
    I cannot say I've noticed, but I would not be surprised if she has been advised not to wear anything too nice, lest she be accused of focusing more on her wardrobe than Brexit.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Just catching up... so Mueller turns out to be a damp squib, is that right?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    Would it be that bad? You'd presumably get a cohort of Brexit party MEPs, and many Tory ones, who would be huge pains in the arse, but every single other MEP would be massively in favour of the EU.
    There will be very few Tory MEPs elected if it goes ahead. I would expect a majority of activists and many otherwise reliable supporters to vote for other parties or abstain.

    I would expect a poor third place on 20% of the vote.
    I shall correct - I meant many, out of whatever number of Tories are elected, on the basis however many are most will be presumably not be as keen on the EU as the Labour and LD ones.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I think the objection is mainly that it would be a highly provocative (to Leavers) reminder than Brexit wasn't going ahead anytime soon. I think that's a pretty valid concern, TBH. But there are no good options, starting from where we are, so perhaps it's a problem we'll just have to put up with.
    People who want to be provoked will be provoked. It’s not as if they’re generally short of outrage.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Just catching up... so Mueller turns out to be a damp squib, is that right?

    Well it depends if you watch Fox News or CNN....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited March 2019

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I think the objection is mainly that it would be a highly provocative (to Leavers) reminder than Brexit wasn't going ahead anytime soon. I think that's a pretty valid concern, TBH. But there are no good options, starting from where we are, so perhaps it's a problem we'll just have to put up with.
    There's only two ways to avoid it, neither of which is plausible, so yes we will have to put up with it. Labour to win is my prediction, as I think the Brexit party will suffer as many stay at home.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159

    Just catching up... so Mueller turns out to be a damp squib, is that right?

    At first sight. But may have a lit a longer fuse, rather than simply dropped a bombshell.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    I can totally understand why the EU wouldn't be enthusiastic about us taking part in the elections (I'm surprised they're making it a condition of a long extension; if anything, I would've expected the condition to be that we'd promise NOT to take part in them), but I meant more from the British perspective. Of all the many reasons for and against delaying, taking part in an election seems pretty...second-order.
    We can’t be in the EU and not take part in EU elections. They don’t have the ability to give us the choice.

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    alex. said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    I can totally understand why the EU wouldn't be enthusiastic about us taking part in the elections (I'm surprised they're making it a condition of a long extension; if anything, I would've expected the condition to be that we'd promise NOT to take part in them), but I meant more from the British perspective. Of all the many reasons for and against delaying, taking part in an election seems pretty...second-order.
    We can’t be in the EU and not take part in EU elections. They don’t have the ability to give us the choice.

    Exactly
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982

    Dura_Ace said:

    What is IDS driving there? Looks interesting.
    Morgan Roadster. He's exactly the type of prick who would have one.
    What's wrong with them?
    They are shoddily built overpriced junk bought by mugs.

    There are a lot of ways in which they are technically deficient but the sliding pillar front suspension is particularly egregious - a technology that was largely abandoned by the motor industry before WW2. It is very maintenance intensive and doesn't camber out under compression which gives the car absolutely savage handling characteristics.

    It's a rolling metaphor for Brexit: a poorly executed pastiche of something that never actually existed.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    Labour fear it would give the Tiggers a platform for sustainability. On the other side they ear it would mean Farage back.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    alex. said:
    It’s a movie sequel

    The common market strikes back
    European Judgment Day
    The wrath of Can’t Brexit
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    I’m not sure that local councils will have done much planning for EU elections, and one can imagine they will therefore be totally chaotic, and quite possibly widely open to post election legal challenges.

    I know they have tried to plan ahead for various scenarios, including the awful prospect of EU elections, referendum and GE all in the same year, but preparations would have been fully underway a long time ago in the ordinary course of things, it will probably not be pretty.
    Councils are used to running elections, and hardly had much notice for the last GE, after all. Compared with the myriad risks of a crash out Brexit in three weeks time, running the EU elections would be a piece of cake.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    alex. said:
    It’s a movie sequel

    The common market strikes back
    European Judgment Day
    The wrath of Can’t Brexit
    Is it a Christmas movie like Die Hard 2?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    I’m not sure that local councils will have done much planning for EU elections, and one can imagine they will therefore be totally chaotic, and quite possibly widely open to post election legal challenges.

    I know they have tried to plan ahead for various scenarios, including the awful prospect of EU elections, referendum and GE all in the same year, but preparations would have been fully underway a long time ago in the ordinary course of things, it will probably not be pretty.
    Councils are used to running elections, and hardly had much notice for the last GE, after all. Compared with the myriad risks of a crash out Brexit in three weeks time, running the EU elections would be a piece of cake.
    They can do it, but it will not be without issue.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    I can totally understand why the EU wouldn't be enthusiastic about us taking part in the elections (I'm surprised they're making it a condition of a long extension; if anything, I would've expected the condition to be that we'd promise NOT to take part in them), but I meant more from the British perspective. Of all the many reasons for and against delaying, taking part in an election seems pretty...second-order.
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    I can totally understand why the EU wouldn't be enthusiastic about us taking part in the elections (I'm surprised they're making it a condition of a long extension; if anything, I would've expected the condition to be that we'd promise NOT to take part in them), but I meant more from the British perspective. Of all the many reasons for and against delaying, taking part in an election seems pretty...second-order.
    I think it would be fun. The looniest of loons would get in.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    alex. said:
    It’s a movie sequel

    The common market strikes back
    European Judgment Day
    The wrath of Can’t Brexit
    Is it a Christmas movie like Die Hard 2?
    Common Market 2 : Brexit Softer
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,320
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    I’m not sure that local councils will have done much planning for EU elections, and one can imagine they will therefore be totally chaotic, and quite possibly widely open to post election legal challenges.

    I know they have tried to plan ahead for various scenarios, including the awful prospect of EU elections, referendum and GE all in the same year, but preparations would have been fully underway a long time ago in the ordinary course of things, it will probably not be pretty.
    Councils are used to running elections, and hardly had much notice for the last GE, after all. Compared with the myriad risks of a crash out Brexit in three weeks time, running the EU elections would be a piece of cake.
    Yes, even our local borough council has made contingency plans and offer advice to intending candidates.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Why would any sensible person opt to be a candidate in EU elections anyway (except if they are brought about by revoke). It wouldn’t exactly offer a good career move with semi stable future prospects.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    Would it be that bad? You'd presumably get a cohort of Brexit party MEPs, and many Tory ones, who would be huge pains in the arse, but every single other MEP would be massively in favour of the EU.
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    What exactly is the big objection to taking part in European elections?

    People keep using that as if it's a knockout argument against a long extension, but, of all the worries the general public have about delaying Brexit, I doubt that would be one of the main ones (after all, people who don't think we should be taking part in the elections can always choose to stay home).

    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind. They’re already facing a chaotic European Parliament and having British MEPs would only make things worse.
    Would it be that bad? You'd presumably get a cohort of Brexit party MEPs, and many Tory ones, who would be huge pains in the arse, but every single other MEP would be massively in favour of the EU.
    I think the Lib Demss will get a seat in most regions, as opposed to just falling short, as they did in 2014, but you'd still have about half our MEP's being anti-EU, on top of a much bigger awkward squad from France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Spain and Eastern Europe.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,202


    I doubt the EU is enthused about having a cohort of deranged MEPs with Thor-sized axes to grind.

    Thor has a hammer, NOT an axe!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2019
    alex. said:

    Why would any sensible person opt to be a candidate in EU elections anyway (except if they are brought about by revoke). It wouldn’t exactly offer a good career move with semi stable future prospects.

    There are worse places to stay a few months on a fat salary and a generous expenses allowance, with no work to so, than Brussels and Strasbourg. Both have excellent restaurants. In fact I might be tempted myself!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    Just catching up... so Mueller turns out to be a damp squib, is that right?

    We don't know yet either way, all we know is that he didn't recommend indictment.
This discussion has been closed.