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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast on the Tory leader runners an

SystemSystem Posts: 11,009
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast on the Tory leader runners and riders

On this week’s Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by David Herdson to review who might replace Theresa May as Tory leader when the time comes.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    First
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DavidL said:

    First

    I'm really pleased for you
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    MikeSmithson said:

    DavidL said:

    First

    I'm really pleased for you
    Thanks Mike, much appreciated.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Theresa May, 14th Jan: "The link between them [withdrawal agreement + political declaration] means that the commitments of one cannot be banked without the commitments of the other."
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    A rare and precious opportunity to mention pre-decimal currency arises, and immediately a new thread starts. Typical! I feel thwarted.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Well done David L

    You deserve it

    I for one am really chuffed for you
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    Bingo

    Blindfold Brexit from Jezza on news at 10.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    bigjohnowls said:

    Theresa May, 14th Jan: "The link between them [withdrawal agreement + political declaration] means that the commitments of one cannot be banked without the commitments of the other."

    Theresa May, 28th Mar: ...except when I say that they can after all.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    bigjohnowls said:

    Well done David L

    You deserve it

    I for one am really chuffed for you

    I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Black_Rook said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Theresa May, 14th Jan: "The link between them [withdrawal agreement + political declaration] means that the commitments of one cannot be banked without the commitments of the other."

    Theresa May, 28th Mar: ...except when I say that they can after all.
    Indeed
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Black_Rook said:

    A rare and precious opportunity to mention pre-decimal currency arises, and immediately a new thread starts. Typical! I feel thwarted.

    It must really groat with you.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,304
    Disappointed that neither David or Keiran mentioned in the podcast the facts that I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1 in this market, nor did they mention I tipped Javid at 60/1.

    Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    edited March 2019
    DavidL said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Well done David L

    You deserve it

    I for one am really chuffed for you

    I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
    Where do you go now though? It’s downhill from here on in.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,229
    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    DavidL said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Well done David L

    You deserve it

    I for one am really chuffed for you

    I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
    Too modest by half.

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Disappointed that neither David or Keiran mentioned in the podcast the facts that I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1 in this market, nor did they mention I tipped Javid at 60/1.

    Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.

    They didnt mention David L's amazing achievement either.

    Terrible oversight IMO
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    Check Mate

    Bet TIG vote against as will probably also result in a GE
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Peston pushing the no deal line again . Apparently a few close to May say she’ll go for no deal on April 12 th .

    Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1111389599471788035
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    If they won it, which they won't as it has Labour behind it, May would not implement it anyway, though it suggests what could happen if May loses a VONC and Corbyn becomes PM after a snap general election
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Disappointed that neither David or Keiran mentioned in the podcast the facts that I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1 in this market, nor did they mention I tipped Javid at 60/1.

    Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.

    Thanks to TSE, I am on Hunt, Liddington and Hancock. Fingers crossed.

    My own, surely equally, legendary modesty prevents me from adding that I tipped Pete Buttigieg for POTUS at 250/1 a while back... :smiley:

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1111391296382337024
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting story from Guido:

    "MEPS “TRICKED” INTO VOTING WRONG WAY OVER ARTICLE 13"

    https://order-order.com/2019/03/28/meps-tricked-voting-wrong-way-article-13/
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Well done David L

    You deserve it

    I for one am really chuffed for you

    I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
    Where do you go now though? It’s downhill from here on in.
    Felt that for the last 20 years, topping.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1111391687639597056
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1111389599471788035

    Since the change of editor the Mail has been May's biggest supporter by a country mile.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    About bleeding time as well.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    nico67 said:

    Peston pushing the no deal line again . Apparently a few close to May say she’ll go for no deal on April 12 th .

    Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.

    Surely it gives ERG's a disincentive to vote for it and hope Peston is correct.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1111389369217085440

    Mail under the ex-Sunday MoS editor seems to have railed back from earlier less Brexity ways when he first took over.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,031
    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    edited March 2019
    Looks like a full blown leadership election is live.

    100 MPs.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/28/jeremy-hunt-tells-cabinet-colleagues-can-secure-backing-100/
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    About bleeding time as well.
    and when it fails its Jezzas fault presumably
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    Hunt still at 11.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    Who knows? I can see a sub 20% turnout, I certainly will not be voting for the first time in my adult life. That makes it a crap shoot based on differential turnout and it just might favour remainers more than leavers.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Sorry for posts earlier in this thread

    I appear to have left the sarcasm button depressed.

    I think it may be still on actually
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1111389599471788035

    I suppose that's all well and good if the DUP are readers.

    Don't suppose they're going to be all that happy by tomorrow evening, then.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    John Pienaar here: “As someone put it, she fell on her sword and missed”.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    Who knows? I can see a sub 20% turnout, I certainly will not be voting for the first time in my adult life. That makes it a crap shoot based on differential turnout and it just might favour remainers more than leavers.
    I think the six million revokers are more likely to turnout than the kippers.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    bigjohnowls said:

    Sorry for posts earlier in this thread

    I appear to have left the sarcasm button depressed.

    I think it may be still on actually

    Really? You mean you didn't really mean it? I feel so foolish.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    bigjohnowls said:

    nico67 said:

    Peston pushing the no deal line again . Apparently a few close to May say she’ll go for no deal on April 12 th .

    Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.

    Surely it gives ERG's a disincentive to vote for it and hope Peston is correct.
    Mays plan of telling each side different things hasn’t worked . The likely outcome the EU ask for a very long extension , May says no . Then as it’s cut to one year she proclaims victory . She resigns and a new leader comes in during that time . The DUP are screwed with no deal , the Tories are aswell .


  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    bigjohnowls said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    About bleeding time as well.
    and when it fails its Jezzas fault presumably
    Will there actually be a government by Monday?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    DavidL said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Sorry for posts earlier in this thread

    I appear to have left the sarcasm button depressed.

    I think it may be still on actually

    Really? You mean you didn't really mean it? I feel so foolish.
    No not those posts.

    I meant those from the bottom of my heart


    Checks its off
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Disappointed that neither David or Keiran mentioned in the podcast the facts that I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1 in this market, nor did they mention I tipped Javid at 60/1.

    Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.

    Thanks to TSE, I am on Hunt, Liddington and Hancock. Fingers crossed.

    My own, surely equally, legendary modesty prevents me from adding that I tipped Pete Buttigieg for POTUS at 250/1 a while back... :smiley:

    I am deeply grateful to you, or at least I will be if his odds continue to tighten.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    Who knows? I can see a sub 20% turnout, I certainly will not be voting for the first time in my adult life. That makes it a crap shoot based on differential turnout and it just might favour remainers more than leavers.
    I think the six million revokers are more likely to turnout than the kippers.
    Agreed. I can see UKIP in particular losing a lot of seats.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    DavidL said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Well done David L

    You deserve it

    I for one am really chuffed for you

    I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
    One of those great moments where it’s an honour simply to bear witness to. One day I can tell my grandchildren simply that I was there...
  • Options
    trawltrawl Posts: 142
    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    How much would they cost? I’ve seen one figure of £100m or similar. Are MPs who daily call for more cash for x y and z really going to sanction it?

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    bigjohnowls said:

    John Pienaar here: “As someone put it, she fell on her sword and missed”.

    Quote of the year so far.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    On the subject of Tory Leadership runners, why is it that they take it so literally?

    https://twitter.com/Saczak1/status/1111269110707617792?s=19
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    rottenborough said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    About bleeding time as well.
    and when it fails its Jezzas fault presumably
    Will there actually be a government by Monday?
    Is there actually a government now? Doesn't feel like it.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    rottenborough said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    About bleeding time as well.
    and when it fails its Jezzas fault presumably
    Will there actually be a government by Monday?
    ...and will anyone notice the difference?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,583
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    Who knows? I can see a sub 20% turnout, I certainly will not be voting for the first time in my adult life. That makes it a crap shoot based on differential turnout and it just might favour remainers more than leavers.
    I think the six million revokers are more likely to turnout than the kippers.
    Agreed. EU election turnout has never reached 40% in the UK; anything close to 30% would be average.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    bigjohnowls said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    About bleeding time as well.
    and when it fails its Jezzas fault presumably
    On this occasion, I will him on to whip his own MPs. Might be an idea for him to talk to some of the other parties to build consensus.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    edited March 2019
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1111393368158937088

    A) the deal with Raab, whether it ever existed (I mean, who the hell believed that??) is off.

    B We are now in full blown leader election time.

    But will May engineer at GE before they get chance?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,583
    trawl said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    How much would they cost? I’ve seen one figure of £100m or similar. Are MPs who daily call for more cash for x y and z really going to sanction it?

    Of course they will.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    tpfkar said:

    DavidL said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Well done David L

    You deserve it

    I for one am really chuffed for you

    I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
    One of those great moments where it’s an honour simply to bear witness to. One day I can tell my grandchildren simply that I was there...
    Have you checked your S button mine was stuck for a while?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    edited March 2019
    rottenborough said:

    Looks like a full blown leadership election is live.

    100 MPs.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/28/jeremy-hunt-tells-cabinet-colleagues-can-secure-backing-100/

    Actually 75, he says 25 maybes.

    For context May got 165 MPs in the first round in 2016, even Leadsom got 66, so not quite 'shock and awe' from Hunt especially with Javid also on manoeuvres according to the Article.

    In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere and it maybe the next Tory leader ends up Leader of the Opposition not PM if she then loses a VONC and ERG support after proposing we contest the European elections and there is a snap general election
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    solarflare said:

    rottenborough said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.

    About bleeding time as well.
    and when it fails its Jezzas fault presumably
    Will there actually be a government by Monday?
    ...and will anyone notice the difference?
    S button problems tonight on PB?
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Looks like a full blown leadership election is live.

    100 MPs.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/28/jeremy-hunt-tells-cabinet-colleagues-can-secure-backing-100/

    Actually 75, he says 25 maybes.

    For context May got 165 MPs in the first round in 2016, even Leadsom got 66, so not quite 'shock and awe' from Hunt especially with Javid also on manoeuvres according to the Article.

    In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere and it maybe the next Tory leader ends up Leader of the Opposition not PM if she then loses a VONC and there is a snap general election
    He's locked those 75 down apparently, which makes them sound like he's keeping them in a basement or something.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere

    If I rated May's cunning a bit higher, I'd be inclined to think this was the plan all along. Get everyone to repeat the "she's only leaving if the deal goes through" line enough to premptively kill off the "if the deal fails, she should resign/be forced out" talk that happened last time
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Benpointer said:

    trawl said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    How much would they cost? I’ve seen one figure of £100m or similar. Are MPs who daily call for more cash for x y and z really going to sanction it?

    Of course they will.
    Whether the parties can afford it might be a better question. It is only last week we heard Tory donors are keeping their hands in their pockets, and Labour too over a longer period. It could be that both main parties make token efforts only.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Off to bed

    Goodnight All

    Tomorrow brings 3rd strike and your out presumably
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    bigjohnowls said:

    nico67 said:

    Peston pushing the no deal line again . Apparently a few close to May say she’ll go for no deal on April 12 th .

    Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.

    Surely it gives ERG's a disincentive to vote for it and hope Peston is correct.
    "hope Peston is correct"??

    And Santa is real, the Easter bunny brings chocolate eggs, May is credible and...okay, I've reached my limits.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    Black_Rook said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
    Considering how the current kipper MEPs are rather prone to punching each others lights out, the convicted Felon and mortgage fraudster S Y-L will be a poor supporting act.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
    I was thinking more in terms of the likes of Tommy Robinson, who's a slightly different kettle of fish to Nigel Farage.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited March 2019
    rottenborough said:

    Looks like a full blown leadership election is live.

    100 MPs.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/28/jeremy-hunt-tells-cabinet-colleagues-can-secure-backing-100/

    100 MPs is fine but how many will melt away when a rival candidate wanders into the tea rooms? Ask Boris. Ask Hestletine. Heck, ask Margaret Thatcher.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    solarflare said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Looks like a full blown leadership election is live.

    100 MPs.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/28/jeremy-hunt-tells-cabinet-colleagues-can-secure-backing-100/

    Actually 75, he says 25 maybes.

    For context May got 165 MPs in the first round in 2016, even Leadsom got 66, so not quite 'shock and awe' from Hunt especially with Javid also on manoeuvres according to the Article.

    In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere and it maybe the next Tory leader ends up Leader of the Opposition not PM if she then loses a VONC and there is a snap general election
    He's locked those 75 down apparently, which makes them sound like he's keeping them in a basement or something.
    "It puts the lotion in the basket."
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    AndyJS said:

    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
    I was thinking in terms of the likes of Tommy Robinson, who's a slightly different kettle of fish to Nigel Farage.
    Isn't he on trial for contempt of court again? Might be disbarred if he is found guilty and sentenced.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    Black_Rook said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
    I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    I’m gonna be in the pub by 4 tomorrow. Annoying that MPs are voting early for a change and I have to be sober for the continuing sh*tshow.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    DavidL said:

    Black_Rook said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
    I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
    We have a half decent singer this year, and the song was written by John Lundvik who is also singing for Sweden having won Melodifestivalen.

    Could go Top 10...
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    They start from a pretty high base, it's totally plausible that they could lose seats.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    edited March 2019
    Great quote from Nesnight's Maitlis on MV2.5

    "You are flogging a horse so dead that it is already a glue stick"
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    DavidL said:

    Black_Rook said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
    I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
    We have a half decent singer this year, and the song was written by John Lundvik who is also singing for Sweden having won Melodifestivalen.

    Could go Top 10...
    So you are saying it is going to be less embarrassing than the buffoons, imbeciles and mental incompetents we traditionally elect to the European Parliament? That's a pretty high bar you are setting yourself there.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    AndyJS said:

    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
    I was thinking in terms of the likes of Tommy Robinson, who's a slightly different kettle of fish to Nigel Farage.
    There’s a ceiling on support for TR and his ilk (in much the way there is - at a higher level - for Corbyn). Farage’s main achievement was convincing people that UKIP.. or at least the ones allowed on telly like him and Suzanne.. were normal people you wouldn’t be embarrassed talking about. Most importantly, he sold the story it wasn’t about race. It may have been bollocks further down the food chain, but it worked.

    If there are more than 10 per cent of voters who’d consider picking Batten and Robinson, I’d be surprised.

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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    Black_Rook said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
    I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
    The songs can be somewhat lacking in originality. Next year, I propose a UK entry that extols the myriad virtues of a pound consisting of 240 pence.

    That'll go down a treat in Azerbaijan.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    DavidL said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    DavidL said:

    Black_Rook said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
    I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
    We have a half decent singer this year, and the song was written by John Lundvik who is also singing for Sweden having won Melodifestivalen.

    Could go Top 10...
    So you are saying it is going to be less embarrassing than the buffoons, imbeciles and mental incompetents we traditionally elect to the European Parliament? That's a pretty high bar you are setting yourself there.
    We've sent far far worse.

    I've been watching this bunfight since 1981, I've seen some sights I can tell you.

    However, given there are 26 songs in the Final and 41 countries voting, anything could happen.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1111399022495825921
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    Black_Rook said:

    DavidL said:

    Black_Rook said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
    I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
    The songs can be somewhat lacking in originality. Next year, I propose a UK entry that extols the myriad virtues of a pound consisting of 240 pence.

    That'll go down a treat in Azerbaijan.
    The Italians will probably love it though. They have been looking for that sort of sneaky inflation ever since they joined the Euro.
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    AnotherEngineerAnotherEngineer Posts: 64
    edited March 2019
    edmundintokyo said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    They start from a pretty high base, it's totally plausible that they could lose seats.
    I thought they'd already had nearly half their MEPs defect, so technically they might not.

    It depends how much of the anti-EU vote would go to Farage's new party. UKIP is established and a well known brand, so probably not a high percentage, despite the direction UKIP has taken.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1111398355597352961
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    You've had me scrolling all the way through this thread to find our what David L's great achievement was. Grrr.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2019
    Chris_A said:

    You've had me scrolling all the way through this thread to find our what David L's great achievement was. Grrr.

    Well, it wasn't a disappointment, was it?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1111398355597352961

    That sort of candour is completely unacceptable on the BBC.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Chris_A said:

    You've had me scrolling all the way through this thread to find our what David L's great achievement was. Grrr.

    Jealousy is ugly...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    Rees-Moggs suggests he will back Boris in any future Tory leadership contest on Newsnight
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1111399906378301446

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1111400149371150338
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    Dominic Cummings 'The ERG are Remains useful idiots'

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/the-erg-are-remains-useful-idiots/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1111400364329205765
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Big congratulations, David, on your premiership. But let the words of Kipling guide you. If you can meet with triumph or disaster, treat those two imposters just the same.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Harris_Tweed said:

    AndyJS said:

    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
    I was thinking in terms of the likes of Tommy Robinson, who's a slightly different kettle of fish to Nigel Farage.
    There’s a ceiling on support for TR and his ilk (in much the way there is - at a higher level - for Corbyn). Farage’s main achievement was convincing people that UKIP.. or at least the ones allowed on telly like him and Suzanne.. were normal people you wouldn’t be embarrassed talking about. Most importantly, he sold the story it wasn’t about race. It may have been bollocks further down the food chain, but it worked.

    If there are more than 10 per cent of voters who’d consider picking Batten and Robinson, I’d be surprised.

    Problem: what percentage of clueless habit voters are going to go into the polling booth not even realising that UKIP has changed management?

    I distinctly recall that, in a previous European election, some total non-entity in Cornwall (IIRC) polled over ten thousand votes standing as a Literal Democrat. Many voters are remarkably careless and/or dense.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    HYUFD said:

    Dominic Cummings 'The ERG are Remains useful idiots'

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/the-erg-are-remains-useful-idiots/

    Remainer here, can confirm
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    _Anazina_ said:

    Big congratulations, David, on your premiership. But let the words of Kipling guide you. If you can meet with triumph or disaster, treat those two imposters just the same.

    Wise advice, @Anazina, wise advice.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1111399906378301446

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1111400149371150338

    That was quite the going over, he's not good under sustained fire.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    edited March 2019
    DavidL said:

    Black_Rook said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.

    On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
    I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
    We reached the dizzy heights of 15th place, two years ago, just 11 months after EUref.

    We were 11th in 2011, and ten years back, we came 5th!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Black_Rook said:

    Problem: what percentage of clueless habit voters are going to go into the polling booth not even realising that UKIP has changed management?.

    Quite a high percentage, I would imagine.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1111399906378301446

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1111400149371150338

    Why do fish and barrels come to mind?
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Harris_Tweed said:

    AndyJS said:

    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.

    They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
    I was thinking in terms of the likes of Tommy Robinson, who's a slightly different kettle of fish to Nigel Farage.
    There’s a ceiling on support for TR and his ilk (in much the way there is - at a higher level - for Corbyn). Farage’s main achievement was convincing people that UKIP.. or at least the ones allowed on telly like him and Suzanne.. were normal people you wouldn’t be embarrassed talking about. Most importantly, he sold the story it wasn’t about race. It may have been bollocks further down the food chain, but it worked.

    If there are more than 10 per cent of voters who’d consider picking Batten and Robinson, I’d be surprised.

    In the W. Midlands, that could possibly yield them precisely zero seats. Currently the seven seats in the region are divided up:

    3 UKIP
    2 Tory
    2 Labour
    0 LD or Green.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    Brian Taylor was in the pub with me tonight. I have never seen that man sober and I have seen him a few times now.
This discussion has been closed.