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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Very shortly the credibility of so many Tory leavers could be
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Very shortly the credibility of so many Tory leavers could be in tatters and that has betting implications
Michael Gove 2016 > "The day after we leave, we hold all the cards"
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He also expressed that he thought May wasn't the problem, but the MPs were. And Tyndall will be glad to hear that he expressed extreme contempt for Heidi Allen.
Edit: and first.
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Well I'll take that obviously.
You will be being stuffed into a turkey with some onion soon as.
You remind me of Sir Humphrey who said of Hacker that he was, 'A Minister without parallel in my experience.'
I would get my coat, but it's too nice to wear one.
This may play into the politics as well.
Having said that: I do wonder if opinions that have changed now might not change back once a result has been arrived at.
GE 2019 and the anti incumbency penalty?
https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1112278861553782785
First result Sunderland sees a 2% swing to the Tories, major freak out
Corbyn ends up with most seats, south collapses for Tories, gains oop north
Which is another reason why I don't think the Tories, minority in parliament anyway, would take us there.
There is no over without a consensus to abandon the project altogether - which obviously does not exist.
Going ahead means this carries on. As would revoking.
I suspect the claim is deeply spurious but its that sort of thing that could catch on in an election campaign.... Most people wouldn't have the faintest idea what a customs union actually is but if the messages are broken down into messages that people can understand like "taxation without representation" then watch out...
Prefacing it with 'weird prediction' ought to give away a lack of certainty
I also feel my Voting Leave/sex with an ex analogy isn’t getting the praise it deserves.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47763176
But I will carry on emitting from there, no problem.
Trust me, it is.
The correct analogy is that we have agreed to get a divorce, but are being forced to live together in a loveless marriage because the lawyers have screwed up the paperwork.....
Last matched at 2.2.
For much of last 48 hours has been in the 1.85 to 1.95 region.
i.e. You botched your campaign
A good encapsulation of the Leaver 'Operation Scapegoat' now in full flow.
The three realistic choice although all have real political fallout - no deal, no Brexit or Norway. I doubt the Tory Party would survive such a choice and maybe Labour wouldn’t either. Talking about leadership candidates in those circumstances seems a bit incongruous. What would they be leading ?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/08/the-day-the-dinosaurs-died
When I first visited the lab, in April, 2014, a block of stone three feet long by eighteen inches wide lay on a table under bright lights and a large magnifying lens. The block, DePalma said, contained a sturgeon and a paddlefish, along with dozens of smaller fossils and a single small, perfect crater with a tektite in it. The lower parts of the block consisted of debris, fragments of bone, and loose tektites that had been dislodged and caught up in the turbulence. The block told the story of the impact in microcosm. “It was a very bad day,” DePalma said. “Look at these two fish.” He showed me where the sturgeon’s scutes—the sharp, bony plates on its back—had been forced into the body of the paddlefish. One fish was impaled on the other. The mouth of the paddlefish was agape, and jammed into its gill rakers were microtektites—sucked in by the fish as it tried to breathe. DePalma said, “This fish was likely alive for some time after being caught in the wave, long enough to gasp frenzied mouthfuls of water in a vain attempt to survive.”...
The only way this goes away is where the executive have seized power and democracy is suspended, so people aren't faced with the burden of choice.
EDIT: stick it out till the middle 8 for the full effect.
https://youtu.be/GSDLFzSOjos
(*) Anger is overstating it; mildly peeved in the way only Englishmen can be.
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/brexit-conservatives
Remainers have negotiated a deal (with the key brexiteers being sidelined) without playing their cards as leavers advised (at this point it doesn't matter whether that advice was sage or stupid).
Remainers in parliament have mostly rejected this deal. If we leave with no deal, it is largely their fault. They clearly could have voted through the deal.
Leavers on the whole argued for a notional, easily negotiated deal, but didn't get to negotiate (unless you count Davis who was overruled and undermined and Raab who seems to have enjoyed little influence), and have mostly voted for the deal on offer, so it wouldn't be their no deal, it would be the establishment's.
Of course you could also blame the DUP and ERG holdouts (who have no hope of holding the reins) as opposed to the much larger number rejecting the deal as too Brexity, but those who have folded and accepted the deal as preferable to running the risk of the remainer threat of no Brexit would largely escape censure from leavers disillusioned by no deal repercussions.
https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1
Most people do not actually have a strong, coherent, and informed point of view on EU membership. Rather, if is tribal affiliation that has led them to Leave or Remain. They will follow a clear and confident direction, even if it leads to a change in previous opinions.
One of May’s manifold faults is that she doesn’t “do” leadership, but rather a kind of negative triangulation, seeking a course of least resistance while stubbornly refusing to engage or open up deliberation. If it is leadership, it is the leadership of cowardice and paranoia.
We need a leader who can stand up and do some long overdue truth-telling for starters.
As far as I can tell, Ken Clarke is about the only person who has managed to do so and of course he is far too old to be in any position of authority.
Does that count?
Posting here yesterday, Sandy Rent tool made a fascinating observation. PB seems neatly split between those who staunchly believe threat of no deal is long gone, and those who fear it still very much a possibility.
Well spotted Sandy. not everybody can be right on this one, somebody is getting it spectacularly wrong.
Well fine. So long as nobody spectacularly wrong basing their opinion on no government can choose a no deal decoupling because they are not prepared for it. No kind of brexit comes without some teething issues no amount of planning could spot and mitigate. there has been years of planning. How many years preparing for it does EU need before they are ready to start a No Deal decoupling process? EU communiques talk up they are ready. the EU are as ready as they ever will be. Nearly Everything they need for day one they have in place.
An awkward bit would be the Irish border. On this France and Germany would listen to Dublin before making a decision.
Both Merkel and Macron raised the issue of the Irish border at the meeting of the European Council.
“What will happen if there is a no-deal Brexit on 12 April?” Macron asked of the Irish Taoiseach. “Would you be fine?”
Varadkar replied: “We can cope”.
A visit of German or french leaders to Dublin can only be to make sure Leo can cope before declaring no deal divorce.
This is the key bit: how can almost everything be in place to declare ourselves out the EU in just few weeks time with a deal once passing WA, yet not be still be in place to start a no deal divorce? to some extent the transition arrangement waiting to be put in place once May’s WA is passed IS the preparation already done. No deal was never going to be a car crash, that was always spin. Deal or no deal it was always going to be at least a nine month process till we are standing alone out of every bit of it with political and financial issues to resolve before talks can seriously begin again. This is the definition of a real no deal brexit minus the spin. One where not every last bit needs to be thought through and ready in order to begin the slow and careful no deal decoupling.
In my opinion some people are slow to realise how close UK government and EU council are to initiating a no deal divorce. Into that category of being dangerously slow on the uptake I put every single Labour MP except Jim Fitzpatrick
The Conservative party machine (such as it is) will be in full defence mode. Conservative gains are going to be incredibly few and far between, as there is almost no 'offensive' capability to deploy.
Conservative voters like Conservative activists are overwhelmingly Leave voters and break overwhelmingly for No deal over other options. Conservative MPs looking to hold seats would have to be incredibly 'courageous ' in the Sir Humphrey sense to opt for anything other than no deal if they want to hold their seats. Hence the 170 already declared for it.
We are going to have GE one way or the other very soon. For what's it's worth I reckon we are close to Conservative MPs being willing to vote no confidence to trigger one if necessary.
Q: How many terrified Tories does it take to prevent a general election?
A: Fewer than the number of terrified Tories.
With about half the Tory MPs supporting No Deal, what chance have we got?
https://twitter.com/nickwhithorn/status/1112334855805812736?s=21
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/31/theresa-may-never-job-delivering-brexit-remains-office-cannot/
http://www.openculture.com/2016/11/umberto-eco-makes-a-list-of-the-14-common-features-of-fascism.html
Disturbing how many link to Trump and Corbyn - but not terribly surprising perhaps.
I agree that there doesn't seem to be anyone else in the HoC. There are Patten and Heseltine in the HoL, and Patten seems proven as being able to work with people. Heseltine is 8 years older than Clarke though and Patten had poor health.
In fact No Deal will be extremely unstable. The most likely subsequent outcomes are Norway+CU or rejoin EU
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-parliament-should-accept-or-reject-the-proposal-that-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-without-a-deal/
None of whom are very keen on the idea of No Deal it seems, which I why I remain confident (cling to the hop, if you like) that it won't happen.
It's much more like undergoing major surgery to cure an illness, and trying to figure out how to heal fully thereafter.
It is essentially the same as May's deal, since the Backstop does the same job in the same way. It is also essentially the same as Corbyn's proposed deal. That too, shorn of its unicorn element, does the same job in the same way.
For some reason having Ken Clarke's name on a Brexit plan unlocks support from people who condemn the same plan when it is seen as belonging to either Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn. I wonder why that is?
Breixt was going to be easy we were told (by Leavers). They lied.