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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chanc

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chance on Monday to a 21% chance now

Chart of Betfair market from betdata.io

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Money for old rope and a first first
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Roger said:

    Money for old rope and a first first

    I second that Roger.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    A double entendre for second and a first third
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    I’d guess the probability at over 20% (not that I have any desire to bet on it) only because of the time pressure and the inability of our governing institutions to make any decisions effectively. And at this point we are relying entirely on the good will of the EU, unless we revoke.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited April 2019

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    What goes wrong is if we don’t prepare and announce Eu elections. Once announced we can have long extension, without them we will crash out by May 22nd unless things are agreed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    Genuine question : why are the euro elections seem as such an insurmountable issue? If a longer extension is needed and UK doesn't take part in euro elections in May the EU just passes a rule saying eg :
    Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
    Problem solved?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    kamski said:

    Genuine question : why are the euro elections seem as such an insurmountable issue? If a longer extension is needed and UK doesn't take part in euro elections in May the EU just passes a rule saying eg :
    Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
    Problem solved?

    The Euro elections are defined by treaties, you can't just start making up election terms.

    You could change the treaties, but you'd need to pass ratification legislation through the parliaments of 27 member states, not to mention potentially some referendums.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Another mad day coming up. Cabinet resignations finally on the way?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    edited April 2019
    kamski said:

    Genuine question : why are the euro elections seem as such an insurmountable issue? If a longer extension is needed and UK doesn't take part in euro elections in May the EU just passes a rule saying eg :
    Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
    Problem solved?

    Treaty obligation, as I understand it. If we are not represented by MEPs, it risks all their actions being deemed illegal.

    Plus, if we DO have MEPs, the EU don't want us having any ongoing involvement in setting Budgets...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Nigelb said:
    Continuing in the Japanese tradition of making up English translations that are absolutely nothing to do with the original, in this case to play all cute and peace-loving to the outside world while gently ratcheting up the authoritarianism internally.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Trudeau expels 'whistleblower' MPs

    Canada's prime minister has kicked two MPs from his party's caucus after they accused him of meddling in a criminal case involving an influential company.

    Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott had already resigned from PM Justin Trudeau's cabinet citing their concerns over the SNC-Lavalin affair.

    Now they have been expelled from Mr Trudeau's Liberal Party, months before a general election.

    The SNC-Lavalin controversy has cast a shadow over Mr Trudeau's leadership.

    Andrew Scheer, the leader of the opposition Conservatives, said on Tuesday that the prime minister had betrayed justice by removing two corruption whistleblowers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47754193

    A reasonable move...if his earlier conduct was above board
    matt said:

    Roger said:

    Ignoring how Brexit turns out this could be a game changer for Corbyn. Provided he and May produce a result and he handles the PR side well this could be the biggest leg up to becoming PM that he could have had.

    Whatever May proposes however unpalatable he just has to get his name on the dotted line. The country want it solrted and if Corbyn looks like he's responsible he should sail to victory at the next GE.

    Perhaps you could help with a PB phrase guide. A couple of immediate thoughts:

    "provided [conditions are met] Y [could] happen" - I've added qualifiers galore to pretend a guess has some meaning. Don't quote me later when I spin on a top.

    "I'm hearing rumours that...." - I want to imply I'm in the know but am just reading The Telegraph/Guardian and quoting on an unattributed basis

    "Your party has been destroyed by..." - I am obsessed by one subject and assume that everybody else is the same as me.
    Fantastic. I've done the first thousands of times.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Nigelb said:
    Continuing in the Japanese tradition of making up English translations that are absolutely nothing to do with the original, in this case to play all cute and peace-loving to the outside world while gently ratcheting up the authoritarianism internally.
    Sounds vaguely familiar...
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Sandpit said:

    Another mad day coming up. Cabinet resignations finally on the way?

    For what purpose? At least it will indicate which ministers hope to become party leader/PM. While simultaneously rendering them unfit for that role.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    kamski said:

    Genuine question : why are the euro elections seem as such an insurmountable issue? If a longer extension is needed and UK doesn't take part in euro elections in May the EU just passes a rule saying eg :
    Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
    Problem solved?

    Treaty obligation, as I understand it. If we are not represented by MEPs, it risks all their actions being deemed illegal.

    Plus, if we DO have MEPs, the EU don't want us having any ongoing involvement in setting Budgets...
    Macron might be worried about the MEPs we'll send :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Sandpit said:

    Another mad day coming up. Cabinet resignations finally on the way?

    I think they keep their powder dry, for now. Nothing to be gained by an early exit. Everything to gain by a joint demand that May leaves. There's probably already a majority who would call for her to go. But wait and see what Corbyn says.

    It's the only element of Cabinet government that might still be functioning after yesterday.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    kamski said:

    Genuine question : why are the euro elections seem as such an insurmountable issue? If a longer extension is needed and UK doesn't take part in euro elections in May the EU just passes a rule saying eg :
    Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
    Problem solved?

    Treaty obligation, as I understand it. If we are not represented by MEPs, it risks all their actions being deemed illegal.

    Plus, if we DO have MEPs, the EU don't want us having any ongoing involvement in setting Budgets...
    That’s a big reason not to allow a long extension from the EU side. They’d be Treaty bound to treat us as full members until the day we actually leave, it’s just going to ramp up the animosity one more notch.

    Leaving aside that if we have to hold the EU elections, there’s going to be an, err, eclectic bunch of British MEPs elected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sandpit said:

    Another mad day coming up. Cabinet resignations finally on the way?

    Probably. It's been so widely reported that despite 7 hours of discussion they did not reach harmony, it makes no sense for someone to not see May's offer to Corbyn as a crossed line, and many many mps will welcome the resignations no doubt.

    I'm a little more despondent about it this morning. Compromise at this point was needed but to mps it is just admitting weakness and will be despised by Tories and seen as the enemy exposing their belly to labour. Whether May is being genuine or not I cannot see agreement being reached - Corbyn has internal politics to think about so will surely have to demand a referendum and if May felt that could pass muster in her Cabinet and party, even reluctantly, she would already have offered it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Nigelb said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    I’d guess the probability at over 20% (not that I have any desire to bet on it) only because of the time pressure and the inability of our governing institutions to make any decisions effectively. And at this point we are relying entirely on the good will of the EU, unless we revoke.

    The EU does not want No Deal, so I think we can bank their goodwill. For me, accidental No Deal is now off the table. From here it has to be deliberate.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    An optimistic prediction. Best we can hope for probably.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.
    When 90% of his MPs and members want to stop Brexit?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    kle4 said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.
    When 90% of his MPs and members want to stop Brexit?
    It's the voters he needs to win an election. His MPs already hate him.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Another mad day coming up. Cabinet resignations finally on the way?

    I think they keep their powder dry, for now. Nothing to be gained by an early exit. Everything to gain by a joint demand that May leaves. There's probably already a majority who would call for her to go. But wait and see what Corbyn says.

    It's the only element of Cabinet government that might still be functioning after yesterday.
    From a base political point of view, Corbyn’s either going to give the PM the full Arkell v Pressdram and tell her to sort her own mess out or call an election, or he’s going to come up with a list of demands that no Conservatives would vote for - then blame her for the breakdown of the talks.

    Neither way is going to look good from the PM’s point of view, and it’s quite possible we could see a lot of resignations off the back of it. I get the feeling that the next out of the Cabinet market could be a dozen-way dead heat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    kle4 said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    An optimistic prediction. Best we can hope for probably.
    Not a prediction, just a possible scenario. But it seems May has gone out on a limb. If it doesn't work, she is gone by the start of next week. And I suspect a new leader will be prepared to bite the No Deal bullet....
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    Exactly. I don't think even Corbyn is stupid enough to pass on such an opportunity.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    kamski said:

    Genuine question : why are the euro elections seem as such an insurmountable issue? If a longer extension is needed and UK doesn't take part in euro elections in May the EU just passes a rule saying eg :
    Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
    Problem solved?

    Treaty obligation, as I understand it. If we are not represented by MEPs, it risks all their actions being deemed illegal.

    Plus, if we DO have MEPs, the EU don't want us having any ongoing involvement in setting Budgets...
    I see. If there's no way round treaty obligations then the UK should just prepare to take part in euro elections, and if we are out by then cancel them. It's not ideal (what is these days?) , but seems relatively pain-free way to avoid may 22nd cliffedge if needed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    kle4 said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.
    When 90% of his MPs and members want to stop Brexit?
    Seatwise it's more brexity than that for Labour though. Look at the indicitive vote rebels, almost all leave northern seats
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    And just to add the voters don't care what type of Brexit is finally delivered - unless no deal, which they'd accept up to the point at which they started to feel its consequences. Otherwise, they just want it to be over.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    Of course you called T. May wrong yesterday saying she'd choose party over country. She chose correctly this time and deserves some credit for it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    felix said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    Of course you called T. May wrong yesterday saying she'd choose party over country. She chose correctly this time and deserves some credit for it.

    Which I gave her yesterday immediately after her announcement.

  • As a staunch brexiteer I welcome the PM's move last night. I have been saying on Facebook for months that the ERG was shooting itself in the foot. Most pro-Brexit voters just want to leave the UK. The "shade" of departure is far less important.

    If at the end of the day we are no longer members of the EU but have repatriated the rights currently exercised by the ECJ, stop freedom of movement (not immigration per se), regain control over who fishes in our waters and stop paying into the EU piggy bank then if a customs union is the price we have to pay, fine by me.

    I don't care if Jeremy Corbyn gets some of the credit for delivering Brexit. We none of us know when the next GE will be held and if it is a different PM leading the Tory Party, he or she will have a "honeymoon window" in which to call an early election.

    If the DUP pulls the election pact with the Tories then frankly if I was leading the Tory Party, I wouldn't resist a referendum on a United Ireland as my "thankyou" to Arlene Foster and chums.

    If Macron prevents a potential amended deal being given a chance then frankly I hope the French and Irish economies tank and very quickly.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    kamski said:


    I see. If there's no way round treaty obligations then the UK should just prepare to take part in euro elections, and if we are out by then cancel them. It's not ideal (what is these days?) , but seems relatively pain-free way to avoid may 22nd cliffedge if needed.

    Sure, it's easy. The reason it's even an issue is because:
    1) The act of scheduling them reminds Brexit-inclined people that they're not getting their Brexit
    2) TMay keeps trying to play games with the timing, where she doesn't call the elections then uses the lack of elections to make it difficult to extend. That in turn means that to prevent her playing chicken in their car, the EU have to specify that they have to happen as a condition of the extension, rather than just leaving it up to the good sense of the British government.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    Of course you called T. May wrong yesterday saying she'd choose party over country. She chose correctly this time and deserves some credit for it.

    Which I gave her yesterday immediately after her announcement.

    Good.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    As a staunch brexiteer I welcome the PM's move last night. I have been saying on Facebook for months that the ERG was shooting itself in the foot. Most pro-Brexit voters just want to leave the UK. The "shade" of departure is far less important.

    If at the end of the day we are no longer members of the EU but have repatriated the rights currently exercised by the ECJ, stop freedom of movement (not immigration per se), regain control over who fishes in our waters and stop paying into the EU piggy bank then if a customs union is the price we have to pay, fine by me.

    I don't care if Jeremy Corbyn gets some of the credit for delivering Brexit. We none of us know when the next GE will be held and if it is a different PM leading the Tory Party, he or she will have a "honeymoon window" in which to call an early election.

    If the DUP pulls the election pact with the Tories then frankly if I was leading the Tory Party, I wouldn't resist a referendum on a United Ireland as my "thankyou" to Arlene Foster and chums.

    If Macron prevents a potential amended deal being given a chance then frankly I hope the French and Irish economies tank and very quickly.

    +1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    And just to add the voters don't care what type of Brexit is finally delivered - unless no deal, which they'd accept up to the point at which they started to feel its consequences. Otherwise, they just want it to be over.

    I'd like to believe that, and I do think party members go overboard with the 'this is not Brexit' stuff because I do think the public could accept something very BINO like indeed, from a leave perspective, because however much we are out once we are out that is psychologically very significant - its why the Pv lobby lobby are so reluctant to back any BINO even as a plan B - but its members and MPs in particular who are the problem.

    A big concession from either side would be CU without a referendum. But Corbyn will scent victory and has nothing to fear from talks collapsing, and the Tories overall prefer no deal to compromising with the opposition. Not a recipe for success.

    It's annoying Letwins gambit did not already produce an indicative majority for something. Could have been the pretext for a climbdown.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    As a staunch brexiteer I welcome the PM's move last night. I have been saying on Facebook for months that the ERG was shooting itself in the foot. Most pro-Brexit voters just want to leave the UK. The "shade" of departure is far less important.

    If at the end of the day we are no longer members of the EU but have repatriated the rights currently exercised by the ECJ, stop freedom of movement (not immigration per se), regain control over who fishes in our waters and stop paying into the EU piggy bank then if a customs union is the price we have to pay, fine by me.

    I don't care if Jeremy Corbyn gets some of the credit for delivering Brexit. We none of us know when the next GE will be held and if it is a different PM leading the Tory Party, he or she will have a "honeymoon window" in which to call an early election.

    If the DUP pulls the election pact with the Tories then frankly if I was leading the Tory Party, I wouldn't resist a referendum on a United Ireland as my "thankyou" to Arlene Foster and chums.

    If Macron prevents a potential amended deal being given a chance then frankly I hope the French and Irish economies tank and very quickly.

    Yep. Agree on this. I still think the CU will turn out to be a very bad idea but for now it is a price worth paying to get out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    As a staunch brexiteer I welcome the PM's move last night. I have been saying on Facebook for months that the ERG was shooting itself in the foot. Most pro-Brexit voters just want to leave the UK. The "shade" of departure is far less important.

    If at the end of the day we are no longer members of the EU but have repatriated the rights currently exercised by the ECJ, stop freedom of movement (not immigration per se), regain control over who fishes in our waters and stop paying into the EU piggy bank then if a customs union is the price we have to pay, fine by me.

    I don't care if Jeremy Corbyn gets some of the credit for delivering Brexit. We none of us know when the next GE will be held and if it is a different PM leading the Tory Party, he or she will have a "honeymoon window" in which to call an early election.

    If the DUP pulls the election pact with the Tories then frankly if I was leading the Tory Party, I wouldn't resist a referendum on a United Ireland as my "thankyou" to Arlene Foster and chums.

    If Macron prevents a potential amended deal being given a chance then frankly I hope the French and Irish economies tank and very quickly.

    Agree with all of that, with one exception. A customs union is an utterly bonkers idea, it outsources our entire trade policy to the organisation we just left, while giving them every incentive to screw us repeatedly for years to come. It’s the very definition of a vassal state, locking in all of the negatives of Brexit while allowing none of the positives.

    https://www.greghands.com/news/five-main-reasons-why-eu-customs-union-would-be-worst-choice-all
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another mad day coming up. Cabinet resignations finally on the way?

    Probably. It's been so widely reported that despite 7 hours of discussion they did not reach harmony, it makes no sense for someone to not see May's offer to Corbyn as a crossed line, and many many mps will welcome the resignations no doubt.

    I'm a little more despondent about it this morning. Compromise at this point was needed but to mps it is just admitting weakness and will be despised by Tories and seen as the enemy exposing their belly to labour. Whether May is being genuine or not I cannot see agreement being reached - Corbyn has internal politics to think about so will surely have to demand a referendum and if May felt that could pass muster in her Cabinet and party, even reluctantly, she would already have offered it.
    I don't think Jezza is a big fan of a PV. But he could demand a GE which he should get as a VoNC should pass whatever deal gets thru parliament. How soon can the Tories get a new leader and manifesto in place?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    As a staunch brexiteer I welcome the PM's move last night. I have been saying on Facebook for months that the ERG was shooting itself in the foot. Most pro-Brexit voters just want to leave the UK. The "shade" of departure is far less important.

    If at the end of the day we are no longer members of the EU but have repatriated the rights currently exercised by the ECJ, stop freedom of movement (not immigration per se), regain control over who fishes in our waters and stop paying into the EU piggy bank then if a customs union is the price we have to pay, fine by me.

    I don't care if Jeremy Corbyn gets some of the credit for delivering Brexit. We none of us know when the next GE will be held and if it is a different PM leading the Tory Party, he or she will have a "honeymoon window" in which to call an early election.

    If the DUP pulls the election pact with the Tories then frankly if I was leading the Tory Party, I wouldn't resist a referendum on a United Ireland as my "thankyou" to Arlene Foster and chums.

    If Macron prevents a potential amended deal being given a chance then frankly I hope the French and Irish economies tank and very quickly.

    The Customs Union will require very substantial payments to continue to be made to the EU piggy bank. Every year. For ever.

    Still so sanguine?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    kle4 said:

    I'd like to believe that, and I do think party members go overboard with the 'this is not Brexit' stuff because I do think the public could accept something very BINO like indeed, from a leave perspective, because however much we are out once we are out that is psychologically very significant - its why the Pv lobby lobby are so reluctant to back any BINO even as a plan B - but its members and MPs in particular who are the problem.

    I think more than the psychology the PV people are mainly concerned about the procedure; Once out, it's quite time-consuming and laborious to get back in, and the Rejoin campaign would have to fight back FUD about extra conditions that the other member states will require for readmission.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2019
    kle4 said:

    And just to add the voters don't care what type of Brexit is finally delivered - unless no deal, which they'd accept up to the point at which they started to feel its consequences. Otherwise, they just want it to be over.

    I'd like to believe that, and I do think party members go overboard with the 'this is not Brexit' stuff because I do think the public could accept something very BINO like indeed, from a leave perspective, because however much we are out once we are out that is psychologically very significant - its why the Pv lobby lobby are so reluctant to back any BINO even as a plan B - but its members and MPs in particular who are the problem.

    A big concession from either side would be CU without a referendum. But Corbyn will scent victory and has nothing to fear from talks collapsing, and the Tories overall prefer no deal to compromising with the opposition. Not a recipe for success.

    It's annoying Letwins gambit did not already produce an indicative majority for something. Could have been the pretext for a climbdown.
    Letwins gamble showed a CU was least opposed by both Labour and Tory
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited April 2019

    kle4 said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    An optimistic prediction. Best we can hope for probably.
    Not a prediction, just a possible scenario. But it seems May has gone out on a limb. If it doesn't work, she is gone by the start of next week. And I suspect a new leader will be prepared to bite the No Deal bullet....
    No deal is no longer possible under almost any circumstance, save the EU refusing to extend.

    A new PM will need a VOC in the House to take office. One with a declared no deal prospectus won’t get that.

    A sitting PM declaring no deal is the policy will be VONC’d pretty quickly if they haven’t already seen half the cabinet resign causing their downfall.

    And all this is before Cooper and whatever unholy alliance she is caught up in today have put their idiotic bill through the House with Speaker connivance.

    No deal really really is off the table. The ERG wildly overplayed their hand and failed to learn to count. The time to cash in their chips was about 10 days ago.



  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    This is just mad tory fanfic. Rat Eyes is 8/1 to be next PM which seems very generous.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    As a staunch brexiteer I welcome the PM's move last night. I have been saying on Facebook for months that the ERG was shooting itself in the foot. Most pro-Brexit voters just want to leave the UK. The "shade" of departure is far less important.

    If at the end of the day we are no longer members of the EU but have repatriated the rights currently exercised by the ECJ, stop freedom of movement (not immigration per se), regain control over who fishes in our waters and stop paying into the EU piggy bank then if a customs union is the price we have to pay, fine by me.

    I don't care if Jeremy Corbyn gets some of the credit for delivering Brexit. We none of us know when the next GE will be held and if it is a different PM leading the Tory Party, he or she will have a "honeymoon window" in which to call an early election.

    If the DUP pulls the election pact with the Tories then frankly if I was leading the Tory Party, I wouldn't resist a referendum on a United Ireland as my "thankyou" to Arlene Foster and chums.

    If Macron prevents a potential amended deal being given a chance then frankly I hope the French and Irish economies tank and very quickly.

    The Customs Union will require very substantial payments to continue to be made to the EU piggy bank. Every year. For ever.

    Still so sanguine?
    I've heard single market access will require payments. Definitely for CU too?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    So May has recognised that it is a Hung Parliament she's in, and that her own Party is not completely united on what it wants in this crucial matter, and possibly listening to others and reaching for compromise and consensus could be the way forward.

    She realised that quicker than I expected, to be fair. Some might suggest she could have realised somewhat sooner...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Hopefully No Deal is less likely now. However a 21% chance is still much higher than we should ever have to put up with.
    If No Deal does happen and the dire results cause anger, constituents could subject ERG MPs to recall petitions provided they can get 10% of their electorates signatures within 6 weeks. That doesn't sound insurmountable.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.
    So you want to wreck the economy and put hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk?
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    Hopefully No Deal is less likely now. However a 21% chance is still much higher than we should ever have to put up with.
    If No Deal does happen and the dire results cause anger, constituents could subject ERG MPs to recall petitions provided they can get 10% of their electorates signatures within 6 weeks. That doesn't sound insurmountable.

    They need to have been convicted of an offence. Recall petitions can’t be started simply because voters don’t like their MP. That’s what elections are for.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Gloomy and cold, but I'm sure it'll warm up soon.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    Hopefully No Deal is less likely now. However a 21% chance is still much higher than we should ever have to put up with.
    If No Deal does happen and the dire results cause anger, constituents could subject ERG MPs to recall petitions provided they can get 10% of their electorates signatures within 6 weeks. That doesn't sound insurmountable.

    Er, how?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    "It can be argued that a 51.9% to 48.1% split is no mandate for hard change."

    But it'd have been a mandate for the status quo ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Dura_Ace said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    This is just mad tory fanfic. Rat Eyes is 8/1 to be next PM which seems very generous.
    Is "Rat Eyes" supposd to narrow the field of possibles any?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    This is just mad tory fanfic. Rat Eyes is 8/1 to be next PM which seems very generous.
    Is "Rat Eyes" supposd to narrow the field of possibles any?
    Everything is mad. The Tories are mad, Labour are mad. The Country's voters deserves the loons now deciding our future. They voted for them.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    No deal is no longer possible under almost any circumstance, save the EU refusing to extend.

    A new PM will need a VOC in the House to take office. One with a declared no deal prospectus won’t get that.

    A sitting PM declaring no deal is the policy will be VONC’d pretty quickly if they haven’t already seen half the cabinet resign causing their downfall.

    And all this is before Cooper and whatever unholy alliance she is caught up in today have put their idiotic bill through the House with Speaker connivance.

    No deal really really is off the table. The ERG wildly overplayed their hand and failed to learn to count. The time to cash in their chips was about 10 days ago.

    If you want to win a Tory leadership election after 6 months of no Brexit then you'll presumably need to support leaving with No Deal. If you've just won a leadership election on that prospectus I'm not sure that you'd see a lot of Tory MPs voting no confidence in their own government.

    Admittedly you don't need a lot, but it doesn't quite seem safe to assume that enough Tories would volunteer to go kamikaze to stop it happening.

    Alternatively some more headbangy TMay successor gets to the next deadline and fails to extend from there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Hopefully No Deal is less likely now. However a 21% chance is still much higher than we should ever have to put up with.
    If No Deal does happen and the dire results cause anger, constituents could subject ERG MPs to recall petitions provided they can get 10% of their electorates signatures within 6 weeks. That doesn't sound insurmountable.

    Recall petitions have to be sparked by something eg a conviction or suspension from the House I believe. I seem to recall the ability to just do one was excised from the plans for the bill very quickly.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226

    "It can be argued that a 51.9% to 48.1% split is no mandate for hard change."

    But it'd have been a mandate for the status quo ?

    If we are honest with ourselves and it had gone the other way 48-52, that would not have been a mandate to join the Euro, Shengen or EU Army, because those things were taken as outside of scope. Just as leaving with a unilaterally invoked asymmetric tariffs schedule wasn’t on the agenda of what I voted for when I ticked Leave.

    Now I happen to think that No deal is better than a permanent customs union/single market and that May’s Deal is best of all. But I’m not surprised with today’s shenanigans from unreconciled Remainer MPs. I’d have demanded the same action from my MP if Tony had tried to take us into the Euro without a specific mandate for it too.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    "It can be argued that a 51.9% to 48.1% split is no mandate for hard change."

    But it'd have been a mandate for the status quo ?

    I believe that 52 to 48 is not a big enough margin for change. I remember the original referendum. If it had been 52 48 I'm sure there would have been questions asked.
    As a remainer myself I wouldn't object to leaving if it had been 60 40 or even 55 45.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    Hopefully No Deal is less likely now. However a 21% chance is still much higher than we should ever have to put up with.
    If No Deal does happen and the dire results cause anger, constituents could subject ERG MPs to recall petitions provided they can get 10% of their electorates signatures within 6 weeks. That doesn't sound insurmountable.

    Recall petitions have to be sparked by something eg a conviction or suspension from the House I believe. I seem to recall the ability to just do one was excised from the plans for the bill very quickly.
    Correct. The Bill was amended to remove the ability of the constituents to arbitrarily recall their MP. He or she needs to have either be sentenced to a term of imprisonment, or to be suspended from the House for 10 sitting days or 14 calendar days.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    "It can be argued that a 51.9% to 48.1% split is no mandate for hard change."

    But it'd have been a mandate for the status quo ?

    I believe that 52 to 48 is not a big enough margin for change. I remember the original referendum. If it had been 52 48 I'm sure there would have been questions asked.
    As a remainer myself I wouldn't object to leaving if it had been 60 40 or even 55 45.
    Thresholds are not inherently a bad idea. But we didn't agree to that as a rule beforehand.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    As a staunch brexiteer I welcome the PM's move last night. I have been saying on Facebook for months that the ERG was shooting itself in the foot. Most pro-Brexit voters just want to leave the UK. The "shade" of departure is far less important.

    If at the end of the day we are no longer members of the EU but have repatriated the rights currently exercised by the ECJ, stop freedom of movement (not immigration per se), regain control over who fishes in our waters and stop paying into the EU piggy bank then if a customs union is the price we have to pay, fine by me.

    I don't care if Jeremy Corbyn gets some of the credit for delivering Brexit. We none of us know when the next GE will be held and if it is a different PM leading the Tory Party, he or she will have a "honeymoon window" in which to call an early election.

    If the DUP pulls the election pact with the Tories then frankly if I was leading the Tory Party, I wouldn't resist a referendum on a United Ireland as my "thankyou" to Arlene Foster and chums.

    If Macron prevents a potential amended deal being given a chance then frankly I hope the French and Irish economies tank and very quickly.

    The Customs Union will require very substantial payments to continue to be made to the EU piggy bank. Every year. For ever.

    Still so sanguine?
    I've heard single market access will require payments. Definitely for CU too?
    You have

    a) the EU with a financial black hole in their accounts down to the UK leaving and
    b) a Govt. that can only avoid No Deal Brexit by adding a CU to the package, going cap in hand to that same EU.

    How do YOU think this is going to pan out?

    If the price for a CU is anything less than "eye-watering", we'll have got off lightly......
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    kamski said:

    Genuine question : why are the euro elections seem as such an insurmountable issue? If a longer extension is needed and UK doesn't take part in euro elections in May the EU just passes a rule saying eg :
    Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
    Problem solved?

    No, if the UK is a member and elections haven't taken place, the entire legal basis of the Parliament is called into question
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    So May has recognised that it is a Hung Parliament she's in, and that her own Party is not completely united on what it wants in this crucial matter, and possibly listening to others and reaching for compromise and consensus could be the way forward.

    She realised that quicker than I expected, to be fair. Some might suggest she could have realised somewhat sooner...

    To be fair, Corbyn is someone who is happy to meet with terrorists who want to kill his fellow MPs, but will storm out of a meeting when one of his ex-MPs is present.

    I'm unsure it's fair to expect any reasonable compromise or consensus from Corbyn - at least, if he sees you as the enemy (which most of us would be).
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Nigelb said:
    Continuing in the Japanese tradition of making up English translations that are absolutely nothing to do with the original, in this case to play all cute and peace-loving to the outside world while gently ratcheting up the authoritarianism internally.
    What’s Japanese for ‘Change UK’?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Dura_Ace said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    This is just mad tory fanfic. Rat Eyes is 8/1 to be next PM which seems very generous.
    Is "Rat Eyes" supposd to narrow the field of possibles any?
    I object to this label being applied to Tory politicians on the basis that it is unfair to rats. I used to have a pet rat, and they have beautiful eyes, and indeed are lovely creatures generally.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully No Deal is less likely now. However a 21% chance is still much higher than we should ever have to put up with.
    If No Deal does happen and the dire results cause anger, constituents could subject ERG MPs to recall petitions provided they can get 10% of their electorates signatures within 6 weeks. That doesn't sound insurmountable.

    Recall petitions have to be sparked by something eg a conviction or suspension from the House I believe. I seem to recall the ability to just do one was excised from the plans for the bill very quickly.
    Correct. The Bill was amended to remove the ability of the constituents to arbitrarily recall their MP. He or she needs to have either be sentenced to a term of imprisonment, or to be suspended from the House for 10 sitting days or 14 calendar days.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015
    If not, we'd currently be facing 650 recall petitions.

    MPs were always going to can that idea!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully No Deal is less likely now. However a 21% chance is still much higher than we should ever have to put up with.
    If No Deal does happen and the dire results cause anger, constituents could subject ERG MPs to recall petitions provided they can get 10% of their electorates signatures within 6 weeks. That doesn't sound insurmountable.

    Recall petitions have to be sparked by something eg a conviction or suspension from the House I believe. I seem to recall the ability to just do one was excised from the plans for the bill very quickly.
    Correct. The Bill was amended to remove the ability of the constituents to arbitrarily recall their MP. He or she needs to have either be sentenced to a term of imprisonment, or to be suspended from the House for 10 sitting days or 14 calendar days.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015
    If not, we'd currently be facing 650 recall petitions.

    MPs were always going to can that idea!
    Be fair, as previously noted the Sinn Fein MPs at least have delivered exactly what they promised their electorates, so I'm sure theyd be fine.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    It hasn't been widely reported, but as well as the pro-Bexit nutter who stopped Eurostar traffic at the weekend, two improvised explosive devices left on tracks in Nottinghamshire and ?Cambridgeshire? are believed to have been left as part of a pro-Brexit campaign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sinn Fein have plenty of time for constituency work. Ironically they've been more helpful than the DUP in term of passing legislation this house for May...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:
    Continuing in the Japanese tradition of making up English translations that are absolutely nothing to do with the original, in this case to play all cute and peace-loving to the outside world while gently ratcheting up the authoritarianism internally.
    What’s Japanese for ‘Change UK’?
    Cherry Blossom Uplands
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:
    Continuing in the Japanese tradition of making up English translations that are absolutely nothing to do with the original, in this case to play all cute and peace-loving to the outside world while gently ratcheting up the authoritarianism internally.
    What’s Japanese for ‘Change UK’?
    Cherry Blossom Uplands
    :)

    Whereas 'Brexiteers' translates as "It's someone else's fault!"
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    If the WA gets passed , whatever is agreed about customs union can be overturned by a new leaver PM who can get a fresh GE mandate from the country for real brexit , a new parliament cannot be bound by a previous one
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    It hasn't been widely reported, but as well as the pro-Bexit nutter who stopped Eurostar traffic at the weekend, two improvised explosive devices left on tracks in Nottinghamshire and ?Cambridgeshire? are believed to have been left as part of a pro-Brexit campaign.

    PAZI SNAJPER!
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 217
    is it possible that Mays speech to cabinet went like this:

    We have a majority of 3 but that includes fantasists like Francois and Baker and the DUP. There is no money for an election. If we are VONC'd we will lose.The remainer vote is going to annihilate us at an election. The only option is to try and lock Labour in to this and hope it all turns out well- or a govt of national unity. I have no control over events. Most of you will be sacked under a new PM and the members may over reach you for the next generation for the next leader. No deal is dead. I'm off soon anyway so over to you lads.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited April 2019
    FPT:
    Charles said:

    Xtrain said:

    I'm registered to vote in Twickenham but am spending most of my time in West Dorset, a second home. Are there any ramifications if I register to vote in West Dorset with the intention of voting here in any GE?

    So long as you only vote once it’s ok

    (There may also be council tax implications for primary residence)
    The rules on this have changed and it is no longer sufficient to register as a voter that you own a property, pay council tax on it, or spend an amount of time there. Unlike in the old days where just being the owner allowed you to register.

    There needs to be a reasonable degree of permanent residence. If you split your time reasonably equally between two locations, you can register at both. If you have a clear primary residence and only use the second property for leisure purposes (for example occasional holidays and weekends) then you cannot register there, and must register at your main property.

    From the OP's posting, if his "spending most of his time" is an ongoing situation and not simply transient, he actually MUST register in Dorset and come off the register in Twickenham.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    It hasn't been widely reported, but as well as the pro-Bexit nutter who stopped Eurostar traffic at the weekend, two improvised explosive devices left on tracks in Nottinghamshire and ?Cambridgeshire? are believed to have been left as part of a pro-Brexit campaign.

    The report I read said that they were designed to set signals to red, rather than cause permanent damage. This would have caused lots of disruption, but no risk of injury.

    Are you sure about them being explosive?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited April 2019

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.
    We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    is it possible that Mays speech to cabinet went like this:

    We have a majority of 3 but that includes fantasists like Francois and Baker and the DUP. There is no money for an election. If we are VONC'd we will lose.The remainer vote is going to annihilate us at an election. The only option is to try and lock Labour in to this and hope it all turns out well- or a govt of national unity. I have no control over events. Most of you will be sacked under a new PM and the members may over reach you for the next generation for the next leader. No deal is dead. I'm off soon anyway so over to you lads.

    Plausible. I dont know about the money issue though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Dura_Ace said:

    It hasn't been widely reported, but as well as the pro-Bexit nutter who stopped Eurostar traffic at the weekend, two improvised explosive devices left on tracks in Nottinghamshire and ?Cambridgeshire? are believed to have been left as part of a pro-Brexit campaign.

    PAZI SNAJPER!
    ???
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    kjohnw said:



    If the WA gets passed , whatever is agreed about customs union can be overturned by a new leaver PM who can get a fresh GE mandate from the country for real brexit , a new parliament cannot be bound by a previous one

    If think even a stupid old shit like Corbo knows that the tories will ratfuck him and that any deal with them is worthless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    kjohnw said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    If the WA gets passed , whatever is agreed about customs union can be overturned by a new leaver PM who can get a fresh GE mandate from the country for real brexit , a new parliament cannot be bound by a previous one
    Making all the fuss about it pointless, along with the cries of betrayal.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    “I’m a Leeeee-aver, I do leavers things!”



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    Given the impossibility of reconciling the political objectives of May and Corbyn, I am not sure receding is right. I fear it may actually depend on Letwin-Cooper.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    isam said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.
    We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.
    Pragmatism is the order of the day. Some leaves make rejoining easier or leaving not as worth it. But rejoining would still be quite hard. If it were not so there would not be as much fighting tooth and nail to prevent even BINO. Longer term the fear would be BINO becomes B.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    isam said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.
    We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.
    I just don’t see the point in a Brexit where we stay in both the SM + CU, pay significant contributions and free movement continues but get no votes or vetoes.

    What would be the point?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    kle4 said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    An optimistic prediction. Best we can hope for probably.
    Not a prediction, just a possible scenario. But it seems May has gone out on a limb. If it doesn't work, she is gone by the start of next week. And I suspect a new leader will be prepared to bite the No Deal bullet....
    No deal is no longer possible under almost any circumstance, save the EU refusing to extend.

    A new PM will need a VOC in the House to take office. One with a declared no deal prospectus won’t get that.

    A sitting PM declaring no deal is the policy will be VONC’d pretty quickly if they haven’t already seen half the cabinet resign causing their downfall.

    And all this is before Cooper and whatever unholy alliance she is caught up in today have put their idiotic bill through the House with Speaker connivance.

    No deal really really is off the table. The ERG wildly overplayed their hand and failed to learn to count. The time to cash in their chips was about 10 days ago.
    I think if Corbyn agrees to honour the indicative votes, then that offers a clear way forward, and the EU will approve a long extension on condition we participate in the Euro elections if we're still a member on election day. Then May will move heaven and earth to get us out before that date. I'm not sure Corbyn will have any particular incentive to expedite the process, though. You never know what problems of detail may arise ...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another mad day coming up. Cabinet resignations finally on the way?

    Probably. It's been so widely reported that despite 7 hours of discussion they did not reach harmony, it makes no sense for someone to not see May's offer to Corbyn as a crossed line, and many many mps will welcome the resignations no doubt.

    I'm a little more despondent about it this morning. Compromise at this point was needed but to mps it is just admitting weakness and will be despised by Tories and seen as the enemy exposing their belly to labour. Whether May is being genuine or not I cannot see agreement being reached - Corbyn has internal politics to think about so will surely have to demand a referendum and if May felt that could pass muster in her Cabinet and party, even reluctantly, she would already have offered it.
    As per my lengthy post at the end of the last thread, the problem is that May cannot move at all (on the WA, with little scope on the PD) whereas Corbyn will need her to move, and be seen to move, to deliver anything with his side.

    The only logical solution to this negotiating conundrum is that May gets what she wants now and Corbyn gets what he wants later. But May has burned any trust she might have, and is going anyway.

    The most likely agreement is that the WA goes through with a free vote on a PV. But we all know how the Tories feel about that.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:
    Continuing in the Japanese tradition of making up English translations that are absolutely nothing to do with the original, in this case to play all cute and peace-loving to the outside world while gently ratcheting up the authoritarianism internally.
    What’s Japanese for ‘Change UK’?
    Cherry Blossom Uplands
    Or in the vernacular "chukamen".
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    And all we have to do to end the madness is revoke Article 50. You could do it in an afternoon. And have time left for a cup of tea.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    isam said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.
    We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.
    I just don’t see the point in a Brexit where we stay in both the SM + CU, pay significant contributions and free movement continues but get no votes or vetoes.

    What would be the point?
    It makes it very easy to rejoin. Maybe Tyndall will actually get his way and we leave briefly and then return.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    The ERG sowed the seeds by happily voting with Labour against the deal. They are the true owners of the current situation. It's frankly hilarious.
  • So May has recognised that it is a Hung Parliament she's in, and that her own Party is not completely united on what it wants in this crucial matter, and possibly listening to others and reaching for compromise and consensus could be the way forward.

    She realised that quicker than I expected, to be fair. Some might suggest she could have realised somewhat sooner...

    To be fair, Corbyn is someone who is happy to meet with terrorists who want to kill his fellow MPs, but will storm out of a meeting when one of his ex-MPs is present.

    I'm unsure it's fair to expect any reasonable compromise or consensus from Corbyn - at least, if he sees you as the enemy (which most of us would be).
    To be actually fair, Douglas Hurd was talking to the Provo high command in 1976, 7 years before Corbyn became an MP, and it didn't do Hurd's further career any harm. While Corbyn only met Gerry Adams in 1996, 6 months after Adams had been elected as an MP, and a year after Adams had met President Clinton.
    As for storming out of the meeting including Umunna, Corbyn and May had been meeting under Privy Council rules for 20 minutes prior and having got precisely nowhere, there was no point in Corbyn staying. As a separate point, Umunna was not a leader of a political party, only at the head of a private company with interesting financial sources and banking. Somebody in no 10 was unsurprisingly, shit stirring.
    As to who has the most blood on their hands, several million dead by Blair's involvement in Iraq, probably millions more by Cameron in Libya and Syria, while the continuing supply of UK weapons and personnel to Saudi for the destruction of the Yemen is not something that TMay's government should be proud of.
    While Corbyn is criticised for raising justified concerns over the actions and decisions of the Israeli Government and their use of the IDF in attempting to control the Palestinians by violent and increasingly illegal and dangerous means.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    edited April 2019
    kle4 said:

    isam said:



    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.
    We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.
    Pragmatism is the order of the day. Some leaves make rejoining easier or leaving not as worth it. But rejoining would still be quite hard. If it were not so there would not be as much fighting tooth and nail to prevent even BINO. Longer term the fear would be BINO becomes B.

    Talk of a soft Brexit being the first step to rejoining as a full member, is the story we tell at night to our children to see them through the dark of the night. The structural flaws in the Eurozone mean that Ever Closer Union is no longer an aspiration but an imperative. Assuming we are legally out, it will be quite a few years before this is back on the table again, by which time the EU might be barely recognisable to the one we are leaving.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Westminster VI polling should be interesting over the weekend.

    Still think we are heading for Euro elections - what larks.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    isam said:

    So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
    * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
    * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
    * Remain
    No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.

    May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).

    A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.

    A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.

    Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
    The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.

    Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.

    I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.
    We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.
    I just don’t see the point in a Brexit where we stay in both the SM + CU, pay significant contributions and free movement continues but get no votes or vetoes.

    What would be the point?
    Pointless indeed, but better than painful.
This discussion has been closed.