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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Selling time. What passes for Theresa May’s strategy
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Selling time. What passes for Theresa May’s strategy
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Only by comparison with the Commons, who don't have a brain cell among them.
A string of senior figures – including shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry – believe securing a public vote is an absolute must, while eleven MPs, including four frontbenchers, have written an open letter to Mr Corbyn in The Independent saying “it would be untenable for Labour not to insist” on one.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/03/party-loyalist-can-no-longer-support-reckless-pm-watered-down/
Commons moves to a Revocation ballot on the 11th.
Revoke wins.
Conservative Party collapses.
General Election on same day as European poll, or shortly thereafter.
Result completely unpredictable.
Onwards to line by line consideration by the house sitting in committee
Then the third reading debate with a final vote at 10pm
All the votes at the end.
I am cross with the Tories and voted for them despite Brexit in 2017, however if Article 50 is revoked and the Tories get back to focusing on the economy and issues that do not focus on Europe I might vote for them again.
At the moment I don't think I can vote Tory and am drawn toward Change UK or failing that Lib Dem. This is not because I feel they can win but a protest vote!
Advance notice of the essay question Politics university students will be answering in decades to come.
Talking to Jezza (someone the Tories have spent three years telling us is a national security threat, is a danger to the economy and an anti-Semite to boot) is the problem.
Their proving that everything they said about Jezza previously (and would wish to say in future) is just scaremongering bullshit.
Basically Tories are hoist by their petard...
For the avoidance of doubt, with all her many faults I do not think this is the case.
I thought you were a Lib Dem!
Labour don’t have 262 votes in the House of Commons.
Plan B creates the extension. The legislation is useless without plan B, because it can only compel the UK Government and not the EU, and it is useless with plan B, because the logical consequence of such a thing is that the Government would need to ask for an extension anyway.
Thus, the entire thing is a total waste of a significant fraction of what little Parliamentary time there is left before the next European Council. From the point of view of everybody *EXCEPT* those who actually want No Deal, it is therefore not merely useless, but worse than useless.
Or is there some unrecognised brilliance to this master stratagem that has escaped me?
https://twitter.com/ProfDaveAndress/status/1113506021622861825
I don't know whether or not the latter figure has been updated to take account of Boles, BTW. With the current to-ing and fro-ing, it is rather hard to keep up.
I think he’s going to badly regret this in years to come.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6115547/Jeremy-Corbyn-accused-misleading-Parliament-holding-private-meeting-Holocaust-denier.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/29/opinion/jeremy-corbyn-anti-semite.html
He claims he did not know Eisen was a Nazi and Holocaust denier (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong).
His claim given Eisen's very long history of Holocaust denial which was making waves as long ago as the Irving trial in 2000, is about as convincing as Theresa May's leadership.
And that's before I start on his links to Iran, Hamas etc.
The Tory Party can then revive under a Boris or Raab or Patel or McVey leadership and a hard Brexiteer who was not in the current May Cabinet so thus not part of 'the betrayal', however the economy and the Union may not recover from the damage of a No Deal Brexit.
A softer Brexit is clearly now the best way forward, though May's Deal was best of all but if it comes down to revoke or No Deal a majority of MPs might well feel they have no choice but to back Revoke, although I expect it would be close.
Remember so far more MPs have voted for Cherry's amendment to revoke Article 50 than for Baron's amendment for No Deal
The EU documents last time referred to the UK's stated "intention" not to host elections. If the UK decides it intends to host elections they would proceed as normal, no legislation necessary.
https://www.stagecoachbus.com/routes/north-east/22/throckley-cobalt/xmao022.i
- Reports from the May/Corbyn meeting are positive but still a fair way apart. PV a key issue. Meeting again tomorrow.
- Government has recovered control of the agenda from MPs for Monday's votes on options, if May/Corbyn fails. So government would set the agenda and probably select the options. But PV can be moved as an amendment if agreed by the Speaker
- Cooper/Letwin (placing significant obstacles in place of no deal exit) is progressing through the Commons with narrow majorities. A range of amendments now in play. Looks likely to pass, just. Votes at 10pm
- Cooper/Letwin due to go to the Lords tomorrow; should pass barring procedural upset. If it clears all its stages it may knock no deal out of Monday's options vote.
I have no political ambition now, I never really had any serious ambition anyway i.e. being an MP as I have done too many stupid things that might become public knowledge and used against me!
My membership of the Tory party was based on sound public finances and running a strong dynamic economy. All this nonsense on Europe has become tiresome. In the early to mid nineties I used to think getting out of the EEC/ EU was viable if we had a Free Trade deal with Nafta, failing that the US. I have thought for a decade or more that this approach will not work it is a pipe dream as we are too integrated with the EU. Besides the economy and reality does not really work like this!
And a British politics, a majority of the numbers in the Commons is absolutely supreme.
Besides which, I suspect that the DUP would also vote to Revoke. It forestalls the prospect of a border poll, and the failure to deliver Brexit can always be blamed on Tory incompetence.
Sounds great, doesn’t it?
Since there's been no MV4 since IV2 it would make sense to include the deal in IV3.
The European issue remains unresolved: you touch on it nicely there by highlighting how we’re unhappy with it politically but have become far too intertwined with it economically, not giving us much of a choice.
That’s the nub of the issue: the response of some Remainers, who basically say “tough titty, that ship sailed a long time ago”, because they’re relaxed about the politics isn’t something most Leavers accept.
I always like when I go to London on the train that it goes past the Emirates.