Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election

The Newport West by-election caused by the death of Paul Flynn, who gained the seat in 1987 from the Conservatives, was always going to be held in the shadow of Brexit. Chris Hanratty’s estimates shows that the constituency voted LEAVE by 53% to 47% and the council area voted LEAVE by 56% to 44%, but there is more, much more to Newport than how it voted in the referendum, so let’s take a look at the constituency and see if we can garner some clues as to what will happen today.

Read the full story here


«134567

Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited April 2019
    1st

    I wonder what position the "Did Magna Carta die in vain?" fraternity has on the Abolish the Welsh Assembly party. How very dare a furrin sounding bloke seek to overturn the will of 50.3% of the Welsh people?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    FPT

    Christ, if a walk in Wales meant a GE what does a house in Ireland presage?

    https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited April 2019
    Fecund.. Turd as a TUD beat me...

    And a brilliant piece of writing thanks, Harry. We ought to have more about transporter bridges on PB. ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Should be Labour hold. But should has ceased to have much force lately.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    FPT

    Christ, if a walk in Wales meant a GE what does a house in Ireland presage?

    https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104

    In the EU!!!!!!!!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    FPT

    Christ, if a walk in Wales meant a GE what does a house in Ireland presage?

    https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104

    In the EU!!!!!!!!
    Won't piss off the DUP at all, at all. Perhaps she will also convert to Catholicism.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    FPT

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    It won't pass because it is foolish and dumb. A referendum that doesn't resolve things isn't going to be agreed, period. And a referedum that unites hard Brexiters and hard remainers - the two most motivated groups - in campaigning against a government deal would be an obvious disaster waiting to happen.

    But the same point applies to DEAL v REMAIN. Those same 2 most motivated groups would be united in campaigning against the Deal.
    A Deal v Remain referendum would force Brexiteers to confront the essential question of whether they truly want to leave in practice, in a world in which the EU continues to exist.

    Some will campaign for the deal. Some will say Brexit is pointless and we might as well stay. Some may duck the question and try to discredit the vote.

    Whatever happens, we will get a clear and legitimate result that we can implement without further delay.
    Complete nonsense.

    It is in no way fair to have Remain vs a version of Leave that a whole tranche of Leavers think is terrible. Such a referendum would give an enormous advantage to Remain
    Please see my previous post. ‘No Deal’ doesn’t mean anything and therefore it can’t be on a referendum if we are to learn anything from the clusterf*ck of the last few years. Each option must be concrete, clear, and deliverable.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The biggest head f... would be Tory gain.
    I'm interested if the SDP can make any sort of impression given their overhaul and new celebtity fans, saving deposit would be an astounding result for them
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Also, have doubts about the poor weather hurts Labour argument. AIUI that was very much presaged on car ownership levels. These days, it is the elderly who may be more put off...
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725

    FPT

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    It won't pass because it is foolish and dumb. A referendum that doesn't resolve things isn't going to be agreed, period. And a referedum that unites hard Brexiters and hard remainers - the two most motivated groups - in campaigning against a government deal would be an obvious disaster waiting to happen.

    But the same point applies to DEAL v REMAIN. Those same 2 most motivated groups would be united in campaigning against the Deal.
    A Deal v Remain referendum would force Brexiteers to confront the essential question of whether they truly want to leave in practice, in a world in which the EU continues to exist.

    Some will campaign for the deal. Some will say Brexit is pointless and we might as well stay. Some may duck the question and try to discredit the vote.

    Whatever happens, we will get a clear and legitimate result that we can implement without further delay.
    Complete nonsense.

    It is in no way fair to have Remain vs a version of Leave that a whole tranche of Leavers think is terrible. Such a referendum would give an enormous advantage to Remain
    Please see my previous post. ‘No Deal’ doesn’t mean anything and therefore it can’t be on a referendum if we are to learn anything from the clusterf*ck of the last few years. Each option must be concrete, clear, and deliverable.
    Mays deal is deliverable, it should never have been put to the Commons, but Dominic Grieve put a lock on leaving
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Christ, if a walk in Wales meant a GE what does a house in Ireland presage?

    https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104

    Would her post-office personal protection officers be allowed to carry their arms in the Republic though? Something else she hasn’t fully thought through.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Has Theresa May (or anyone from the Conservative government) actually campaigned there?

    Solid Labour hold I should think...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2019
    IT'S AN APRIL FOOL!!! (The Munster Express story, that is).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited April 2019

    FPT

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    It won't pass because it is foolish and dumb. A referendum that doesn't resolve things isn't going to be agreed, period. And a referedum that unites hard Brexiters and hard remainers - the two most motivated groups - in campaigning against a government deal would be an obvious disaster waiting to happen.

    But the same point applies to DEAL v REMAIN. Those same 2 most motivated groups would be united in campaigning against the Deal.
    A Deal v Remain referendum would force Brexiteers to confront the essential question of whether they truly want to leave in practice, in a world in which the EU continues to exist.

    Some will campaign for the deal. Some will say Brexit is pointless and we might as well stay. Some may duck the question and try to discredit the vote.

    Whatever happens, we will get a clear and legitimate result that we can implement without further delay.
    Complete nonsense.

    It is in no way fair to have Remain vs a version of Leave that a whole tranche of Leavers think is terrible. Such a referendum would give an enormous advantage to Remain
    Please see my previous post. ‘No Deal’ doesn’t mean anything and therefore it can’t be on a referendum if we are to learn anything from the clusterf*ck of the last few years. Each option must be concrete, clear, and deliverable.
    Well it wouldn't be "NO DEAL" on the ballot paper it would be leave on WTO terms wouldn't it?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Doing my expenses just now and realised that I drove through the constituency yesterday. I didn't see any posters.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    It won't pass because it is foolish and dumb. A referendum that doesn't resolve things isn't going to be agreed, period. And a referedum that unites hard Brexiters and hard remainers - the two most motivated groups - in campaigning against a government deal would be an obvious disaster waiting to happen.

    But the same point applies to DEAL v REMAIN. Those same 2 most motivated groups would be united in campaigning against the Deal.
    A Deal v Remain referendum would force Brexiteers to confront the essential question of whether they truly want to leave in practice, in a world in which the EU continues to exist.

    Some will campaign for the deal. Some will say Brexit is pointless and we might as well stay. Some may duck the question and try to discredit the vote.

    Whatever happens, we will get a clear and legitimate result that we can implement without further delay.
    Complete nonsense.

    It is in no way fair to have Remain vs a version of Leave that a whole tranche of Leavers think is terrible. Such a referendum would give an enormous advantage to Remain
    Please see my previous post. ‘No Deal’ doesn’t mean anything and therefore it can’t be on a referendum if we are to learn anything from the clusterf*ck of the last few years. Each option must be concrete, clear, and deliverable.
    Can "No Deal" not be restated as "Government to be forbidden to ask for or accept any extension of time under A50" - which seems concrete, clear, and deliverable to me.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    IT'S AN APRIL FOOL!!! (The Munster Express story, that is).

    Shame. :(
  • Neil Hamilton with a majority of 74,000
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    GIN1138 said:

    IT'S AN APRIL FOOL!!! (The Munster Express story, that is).

    Shame. :(
    Yes!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    It won't pass because it is foolish and dumb. A referendum that doesn't resolve things isn't going to be agreed, period. And a referedum that unites hard Brexiters and hard remainers - the two most motivated groups - in campaigning against a government deal would be an obvious disaster waiting to happen.

    But the same point applies to DEAL v REMAIN. Those same 2 most motivated groups would be united in campaigning against the Deal.
    A Deal v Remain referendum would force Brexiteers to confront the essential question of whether they truly want to leave in practice, in a world in which the EU continues to exist.

    Some will campaign for the deal. Some will say Brexit is pointless and we might as well stay. Some may duck the question and try to discredit the vote.

    Whatever happens, we will get a clear and legitimate result that we can implement without further delay.
    Complete nonsense.

    It is in no way fair to have Remain vs a version of Leave that a whole tranche of Leavers think is terrible. Such a referendum would give an enormous advantage to Remain
    Please see my previous post. ‘No Deal’ doesn’t mean anything and therefore it can’t be on a referendum if we are to learn anything from the clusterf*ck of the last few years. Each option must be concrete, clear, and deliverable.
    Well it wouldn't be "NO DEAL" on the ballot paper it would be leave on WTO terms wouldn't it?
    And what about things other than trade? How close of a relationship with the EU do we have? What do we do about the NI border?

    So many unanswered questions.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Can't believe you didn't mention Newport's finest, the Goldie Lookin' Chain.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited April 2019

    IT'S AN APRIL FOOL!!! (The Munster Express story, that is).

    Very, VERY bad form to release it on the 3rd April in that case. I may have to reconsider my position on the EU.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    GIN1138 said:

    IT'S AN APRIL FOOL!!! (The Munster Express story, that is).

    Shame. :(
    Yes!
    Agree. Did wonder when the May's had had the time to go over and look at it, though.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    IT'S AN APRIL FOOL!!! (The Munster Express story, that is).

    Very, VERY bad form to release it on the 3rd April in that case.
    Well, they are Irish!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Neil Hamilton with a majority of 74,000

    I think that's unlikely. I'd expect him to win by 5,000 or so.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725
    edited April 2019
    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    FPT

    Christ, if a walk in Wales meant a GE what does a house in Ireland presage?

    https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104

    Well you can't blame her for not wanting to meet British people in the street when she leaves office. Where is Cameron hiding out?
  • eristdoof said:

    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?

    He’s ignored the will of the people.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    You've misspelled Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwrndrobwllantysiliogogogoch. It ends -drobwllllantysiliogogogoch, i.e.4 l's
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,053
    eristdoof said:

    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?

    Cash in brown envelopes never loses its appeal!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    IT'S AN APRIL FOOL!!! (The Munster Express story, that is).

    Very, VERY bad form to release it on the 3rd April in that case.
    Well, they are Irish!
    Wow. An actual "Irish people are really stupid" joke in 2019.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    A very interesting article arguing that Joe Biden is being hit by a culture he helped create:

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/04/03/joe-biden-college-campus-sexual-assault-226481
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    No, they didn't, but there are some pretty obvious ripostes if we're going down the road of "the Remain / Leave campaigners haven't delivered what they promised during the campaign"...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    After my thoughts were slapped down by some numpty who seemed convinced the WA with a CU would clear the Commons on Monday, I did a little more thinking.

    The key document for the EU is the WA - the Political Declaration is what comes after so at the moment too many people are putting the cart before the horse. We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.

    I don't see why anything that has happened in the past 72 hours makes getting the WA through the Commons any easier. The DUP and the ERG diehards will still be opposed and while the May apologists continue to "report" Labour MPs are apparently willing to rebel and back the WA until we see them in the correct lobby it will be all just talk.

    Without a WA it's either leaving on 12/4 or seeking a further extension and I'm far from convinced the mood of the Conservative Party is favourably disposed toward a long extension. Obviously, there are those who back the PM or leader in all instances but I get a sense there is growing anger at what has happened and what might yet happen.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725
    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    No, they didn't, but there are some pretty obvious ripostes if we're going down the road of "the Remain / Leave campaigners haven't delivered what they promised during the campaign"...
    The problem with the ripostes I suppose you are going to make are that none of them can be disproved until we have left and they have not been delivered.

    What on earth stopped Theresa May putting £350m a week extra for the NHS in the 2017 manifesto is beyond me.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Oh right, who said so during the campaign?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    eristdoof said:

    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?

    He’s ignored the will of the people.
    The disgraced former MP, Neil Hamilton, (to give him his full title) has an even thicker skin than the disgraced former GP Liam Fox, who is currently having great success getting all those trade deals for us
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    isam said:

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Oh right, who said so during the campaign?
    I am sure it wasn't only me!!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Oh right, who said so during the campaign?
    We definitely had a junk mail from Downing St telling us the referendum would be implemented and we'd be out SM and CU.

    I remember putting it back in the box addressed to Mr David Cameron, 10 Downing St. London.

    And I didn't put a stamp on it! :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    MPs did, I did.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/06/some-mps-are-set-to-remind-the-electorate-that-referendums-are-advisory-and-not-binding-on-parliament/
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    isam said:

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Oh right, who said so during the campaign?
    Me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,053

    eristdoof said:

    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?

    He’s ignored the will of the people.
    The disgraced former MP, Neil Hamilton, (to give him his full title) has an even thicker skin than the disgraced former GP Liam Fox, who is currently having great success getting all those trade deals for us
    To be fair on my near namesake, I dont think his disgrace was due to his General Practice.

    I have had a modest punt on Tories in third place with Shadsy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Christ, if a walk in Wales meant a GE what does a house in Ireland presage?

    https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104

    Well you can't blame her for not wanting to meet British people in the street when she leaves office. Where is Cameron hiding out?
    Some sort of shed in the backwoods of the Cotswolds? Or is it a gypsy-type caravan?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    They did.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/06/some-mps-are-set-to-remind-the-electorate-that-referendums-are-advisory-and-not-binding-on-parliament/
    "My reading of this is that some Remain MPs are genuinely concerned about losing this referendum, any MP who chooses to ignore the will of the people will be punished by the electorate at the next election, any Tory MP who is party to this will face deselection. More importantly, does Parliament really want to set a precedent for the SNP to ignore the result of a referendum?

    I’m a Remainer, but if the electorate, in their infinite wisdom, choose to Leave the EU, our elected representatives should respect that, failure to do so will widen the disconnect many of the electorate feel they have with their elected representatives"

    Wise words, well said
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Wont take long to fix - a day or so.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    eristdoof said:

    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?

    He’s ignored the will of the people.
    The disgraced former MP, Neil Hamilton, (to give him his full title) has an even thicker skin than the disgraced former GP Liam Fox, who is currently having great success getting all those trade deals for us
    Mostyn Neil Hamilton, according to Wikipedia.
    And to be fair to Liam Fox (why?) I don't think he was ever disgraced as a GP. There might have been some criticism of him, of course, but AFAIK nothing was ever published.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After my thoughts were slapped down by some numpty who seemed convinced the WA with a CU would clear the Commons on Monday, I did a little more thinking.

    The key document for the EU is the WA - the Political Declaration is what comes after so at the moment too many people are putting the cart before the horse. We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.

    I don't see why anything that has happened in the past 72 hours makes getting the WA through the Commons any easier. The DUP and the ERG diehards will still be opposed and while the May apologists continue to "report" Labour MPs are apparently willing to rebel and back the WA until we see them in the correct lobby it will be all just talk.

    Without a WA it's either leaving on 12/4 or seeking a further extension and I'm far from convinced the mood of the Conservative Party is favourably disposed toward a long extension. Obviously, there are those who back the PM or leader in all instances but I get a sense there is growing anger at what has happened and what might yet happen.

    No, most of the Conservative Party is not favourably disposed toward a long extension. But the Conservative Party is no longer in control of events. Parliament and the EU have taken back control and they will resolve the extension issue.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725

    isam said:

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Oh right, who said so during the campaign?
    Me.
    When did Dominic Grieve secure the referendum lock?
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Clearly Harry has never been to the 'Port - no mention of GLC or 'Who let the dogs out....'

    No mention of the M4 relief road/Brynglas tunnels, the biggest flag in Wales at Celtic Manor or Caerleon's claim as the home of Camelot......

    As someone who lives within 400m of the constituency I predict a comfortable but unimpressive Labour hold, Plaid beating UKIP to 3rd place and lots of lost deposits ...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Foxy said:

    eristdoof said:

    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?

    He’s ignored the will of the people.
    The disgraced former MP, Neil Hamilton, (to give him his full title) has an even thicker skin than the disgraced former GP Liam Fox, who is currently having great success getting all those trade deals for us
    To be fair on my near namesake, I dont think his disgrace was due to his General Practice.

    I have had a modest punt on Tories in third place with Shadsy.
    Indeed, I perhaps should put the "former GP" bit in brackets. It might spoil the symmetry though!

    The one thing one can say about Hamilton is that the PM hasn't put him in charge of our trade deals. He might know a tad more than a retired GP though, and he possibly will know how to oil the wheels of a deal.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Christ, if a walk in Wales meant a GE what does a house in Ireland presage?

    https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104

    Well you can't blame her for not wanting to meet British people in the street when she leaves office. Where is Cameron hiding out?
    Some sort of shed in the backwoods of the Cotswolds? Or is it a gypsy-type caravan?
    It's called a shepherd's hut apparently. The closest it's ever got to a shepherd is the half tray of last night's Charlie Bigham's shepherd's pie that Dave smuggled in to scoff while staring into space and not writing his autobiography.
  • Concerns were raised about the “infiltration” of Dominic Grieve’s local Conservative association by 200 new members in the months leading up to his attempted ousting, leaked party emails reveal.

    The Guardian has learned that a Ukip supporter was among the flurry of “suspicious” newcomers who tried to join the association in the year before the former attorney general – who has been a standard-bearer for the remain camp in the Brexit debate – lost a confidence vote, leaving him facing deselection.

    In a single small town in the constituency, seven people, including a man who had been canvassed as a Ukip voter, tried to join the party in the space of 48 hours, leading to infiltration concerns. One email noted it could not be a “fluke”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/04/leaked-emails-show-infiltration-fears-before-dominic-grieve-tory-confidence-vote?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 337
    If I were a Tory voter in Newport tonight, which I'm not, I'd spoil my ballot. ItllI be interesting to note how many spoiled ballots there are.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011

    8 Commencement or repeal of amending provisions
    (1) The Minister must make an order bringing into force section 9, Schedule 10 and Part 1 of Schedule 12 (“the alternative vote provisions”) if—
    (a)more votes are cast in the referendum in favour of the answer “Yes” than in favour of the answer “No”, and
    (b) the draft of an Order in Council laid before Parliament under subsection (5A) of section 3 of the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (substituted by section 10(6) below) has been submitted to Her Majesty in Council under section 4 of that Act.

    It is just about arguable that even that isn't binding, because statutes are repealable, but the point is that the way it is structured automates the almost immediate enactment of the result, whichever way it goes. Obviously not achievable for brexit, because brexit cannot be enacted by the uk parliament.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited April 2019
    stodge said:

    We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.

    It's a solution in an ideal world, but there would be enormous pressure for a remain option. Let's face it, pretty much everyone advocating a referendum is only doing so because they know it gives a massive advantage to remain (it being a single concept, whereas leave is split into multiple).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Just had a Guardian newsflash to the effect that there were emails showing infiltration fears before the attempt to oust Grieve
  • isamisam Posts: 40,725

    Just had a Guardian newsflash to the effect that there were emails showing infiltration fears before the attempt to oust Grieve

    @TheScreamingEagles just posted a thread header of his which included the sentence

    "My reading of this is that some Remain MPs are genuinely concerned about losing this referendum, any MP who chooses to ignore the will of the people will be punished by the electorate at the next election, any Tory MP who is party to this will face deselection."

    He is hardly a Kipper plant, and what he said is quite right.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    eristdoof said:

    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?

    He’s ignored the will of the people.
    The disgraced former MP, Neil Hamilton, (to give him his full title) has an even thicker skin than the disgraced former GP Liam Fox, who is currently having great success getting all those trade deals for us
    Mostyn Neil Hamilton, according to Wikipedia.
    And to be fair to Liam Fox (why?) I don't think he was ever disgraced as a GP. There might have been some criticism of him, of course, but AFAIK nothing was ever published.
    Fair point. I agree that the former GP piece needs putting in brackets. I tend to mention it as I think putting a retired GP in charge of trade is as daft as asking the head of the CBI to inspect one's haemorrhoids.
    With respect to the "disgraced" epithet you might want to type disgraced into Google. It has now gone further than this article mentions: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/03/algorithms-are-now-autocompleting-disgraced-former-defence-secretary-liam
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    @HarryHayfield

    Excellent article as always. Have you perchance heard the Comic Relief song "Newport State Of Mind". The article seemed to make reference to some of the lyrics... :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wont take long to fix - a day or so.

    Go on then... :)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After my thoughts were slapped down by some numpty who seemed convinced the WA with a CU would clear the Commons on Monday, I did a little more thinking.

    The key document for the EU is the WA - the Political Declaration is what comes after so at the moment too many people are putting the cart before the horse. We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.

    I don't see why anything that has happened in the past 72 hours makes getting the WA through the Commons any easier. The DUP and the ERG diehards will still be opposed and while the May apologists continue to "report" Labour MPs are apparently willing to rebel and back the WA until we see them in the correct lobby it will be all just talk.

    Without a WA it's either leaving on 12/4 or seeking a further extension and I'm far from convinced the mood of the Conservative Party is favourably disposed toward a long extension. Obviously, there are those who back the PM or leader in all instances but I get a sense there is growing anger at what has happened and what might yet happen.

    Not slapped down but yes I'm a massive numpty.
    25 labour mps including frontbenchers have written to Jeremy asking for CU and no referendum.
    I'd say it has a good chance.
    Other views exist and are valid
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wont take long to fix - a day or so.

    Oh that's OK then. Easiest deal in history etc. It's going to be great.....it's going to be guesswork, and we may fuck up the economy for absolutely no reason, but LETS TAKE BACK CONTROL.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011

    8 Commencement or repeal of amending provisions
    (1) The Minister must make an order bringing into force section 9, Schedule 10 and Part 1 of Schedule 12 (“the alternative vote provisions”) if—
    (a)more votes are cast in the referendum in favour of the answer “Yes” than in favour of the answer “No”, and
    (b) the draft of an Order in Council laid before Parliament under subsection (5A) of section 3 of the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (substituted by section 10(6) below) has been submitted to Her Majesty in Council under section 4 of that Act.

    It is just about arguable that even that isn't binding, because statutes are repealable, but the point is that the way it is structured automates the almost immediate enactment of the result, whichever way it goes. Obviously not achievable for brexit, because brexit cannot be enacted by the uk parliament.
    It's not "just about" arguable - it's completely the case it could have been repealed - legally, but politically it would be more difficult. Not as difficult as, say, recreating the Empire by simply repealing all the independence acts but even so....

    This whole farce has resulted from a collision of law & policy on one hand and political reality on the other. Political promises have been made that are not legally enforceable, nor formulated properly as a policy, and that is to the discredit of all involved.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    In the 1980s and 1990s, the late Julian May wrote a series of eight books: the four Pliocene Exile books, the standalone vinculum 'Intervention', and the three novels of the Galactic Milieu trilogy.

    In them, she describe a world where alien races have come to Earth whilst we were on the brink of nuclear war and offered us the stars. Since then, mankind has moved out from Earth to planets around the Galaxy: the large nations have many worlds, the smaller a few, and the smallest share some. Vast liners travel the ether between worlds, and mankind is flourishing.

    Yet there are discontents. Humans - often powerful and influential ones - who rail against the aliens with whom we share control. We once controlled the world, but we are now a small piece of a gigantic Galactic cog. We should be in charge.

    So these discontents start a rebellion that destroys worlds and kills billions. It is a pointless rebellion: one where they shake their fists at the very beings who have treated us well.

    And it ends with Humanity chastened and still part of the Milieu. Little has changed, for the course was inevitable, and changing it would destroy everything.

    And that is now what might happen to Brexit. We in the UK have a history that is littered with glory, and it is easy to sit back and want those glories to return. Britannia ruled the waves, and we ruled the world. But that world has changed: first came America, and then other countries overtook us. We are a small country: proud and brilliant, but small - in a world where size matters.

    In such a world, is the EU an inevitability?

    So we have a choice: to join up with other small countries (and smaller ones) to form a bloc that has more power together, or to be small and alone. It seems that the former might be inevitable. If so, perhaps the wettest of wet dreams of hardcore Europhiles are correct and, like Humanity after the rebellion, we will eventually become leaders of the group.

    If so, then Brexit may be, like the rebellion in the books, a felix culpa - a blessed fall.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Xtrain said:

    If I were a Tory voter in Newport tonight, which I'm not, I'd spoil my ballot. ItllI be interesting to note how many spoiled ballots there are.

    Just as an aside the weather in this neck of the woods is foul. Sleet, snow lying on hills, hail, cold.

    Low turnout?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After my thoughts were slapped down by some numpty who seemed convinced the WA with a CU would clear the Commons on Monday, I did a little more thinking.

    The key document for the EU is the WA - the Political Declaration is what comes after so at the moment too many people are putting the cart before the horse. We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.

    I don't see why anything that has happened in the past 72 hours makes getting the WA through the Commons any easier. The DUP and the ERG diehards will still be opposed and while the May apologists continue to "report" Labour MPs are apparently willing to rebel and back the WA until we see them in the correct lobby it will be all just talk.

    Without a WA it's either leaving on 12/4 or seeking a further extension and I'm far from convinced the mood of the Conservative Party is favourably disposed toward a long extension. Obviously, there are those who back the PM or leader in all instances but I get a sense there is growing anger at what has happened and what might yet happen.

    Not slapped down but yes I'm a massive numpty.
    25 labour mps including frontbenchers have written to Jeremy asking for CU and no referendum.
    I'd say it has a good chance.
    Other views exist and are valid
    It has no chance. Labour members are overwhelmingly in favour of revoke and/or a second referendum. Overwhelmingly. In the period since the referendum I have attended meetings at which a total of perhaps 500 members have been present at one time or another and during that time I have heard two people speak in favour of Brexit. Two. Out of 500. My CLP is very similar demographically to Corbyn's. The chances of Labour coming to any agreement that does not involve a referendum are nil. Zero. (Which means IMO that there will be no agreement, not that there will be a referendum).
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501
    edited April 2019

    In the 1980s and 1990s, the late Julian May wrote a series of eight books: the four Pliocene Exile books, the standalone vinculum 'Intervention', and the three novels of the Galactic Milieu trilogy.

    In them, she describe a world where alien races have come to Earth whilst we were on the brink of nuclear war and offered us the stars. Since then, mankind has moved out from Earth to planets around the Galaxy: the large nations have many worlds, the smaller a few, and the smallest share some. Vast liners travel the ether between worlds, and mankind is flourishing.

    Yet there are discontents. Humans - often powerful and influential ones - who rail against the aliens with whom we share control. We once controlled the world, but we are now a small piece of a gigantic Galactic cog. We should be in charge.

    So these discontents start a rebellion that destroys worlds and kills billions. It is a pointless rebellion: one where they shake their fists at the very beings who have treated us well.

    And it ends with Humanity chastened and still part of the Milieu. Little has changed, for the course was inevitable, and changing it would destroy everything.

    And that is now what might happen to Brexit. We in the UK have a history that is littered with glory, and it is easy to sit back and want those glories to return. Britannia ruled the waves, and we ruled the world. But that world has changed: first came America, and then other countries overtook us. We are a small country: proud and brilliant, but small - in a world where size matters.

    In such a world, is the EU an inevitability?

    So we have a choice: to join up with other small countries (and smaller ones) to form a bloc that has more power together, or to be small and alone. It seems that the former might be inevitable. If so, perhaps the wettest of wet dreams of hardcore Europhiles are correct and, like Humanity after the rebellion, we will eventually become leaders of the group.

    If so, then Brexit may be, like the rebellion in the books, a felix culpa - a blessed fall.

    What you have left out of your summary is that the humans who rebelled did so, not out of antipathy towards the aliens, but because the aliens were not open about why they were restricting / controlling humanity. The exiles ended up escaping back in time and - at the end of the story - they cross the earlier galaxy to help the ancestors of that mystic alien race solve their differences and (over time) evolve into the alien race who help earth in the future.

    Silly - but arguably the human rebels ended up being right and saving humanity. Discuss.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After my thoughts were slapped down by some numpty who seemed convinced the WA with a CU would clear the Commons on Monday, I did a little more thinking.

    The key document for the EU is the WA - the Political Declaration is what comes after so at the moment too many people are putting the cart before the horse. We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.

    I don't see why anything that has happened in the past 72 hours makes getting the WA through the Commons any easier. The DUP and the ERG diehards will still be opposed and while the May apologists continue to "report" Labour MPs are apparently willing to rebel and back the WA until we see them in the correct lobby it will be all just talk.

    Without a WA it's either leaving on 12/4 or seeking a further extension and I'm far from convinced the mood of the Conservative Party is favourably disposed toward a long extension. Obviously, there are those who back the PM or leader in all instances but I get a sense there is growing anger at what has happened and what might yet happen.

    Not slapped down but yes I'm a massive numpty.
    25 labour mps including frontbenchers have written to Jeremy asking for CU and no referendum.
    I'd say it has a good chance.
    Other views exist and are valid
    It has no chance. Labour members are overwhelmingly in favour of revoke and/or a second referendum. Overwhelmingly. In the period since the referendum I have attended meetings at which a total of perhaps 500 members have been present at one time or another and during that time I have heard two people speak in favour of Brexit. Two. Out of 500. My CLP is very similar demographically to Corbyn's. The chances of Labour coming to any agreement that does not involve a referendum are nil. Zero. (Which means IMO that there will be no agreement, not that there will be a referendum).
    He only needs make if a free vote 'in the interests of moving forwards' or agree to pass the WA in tandem with the preferred IV option and CU beats referendum imo
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After my thoughts were slapped down by some numpty who seemed convinced the WA with a CU would clear the Commons on Monday, I did a little more thinking.

    The key document for the EU is the WA - the Political Declaration is what comes after so at the moment too many people are putting the cart before the horse. We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.

    I don't see why anything that has happened in the past 72 hours makes getting the WA through the Commons any easier. The DUP and the ERG diehards will still be opposed and while the May apologists continue to "report" Labour MPs are apparently willing to rebel and back the WA until we see them in the correct lobby it will be all just talk.

    Without a WA it's either leaving on 12/4 or seeking a further extension and I'm far from convinced the mood of the Conservative Party is favourably disposed toward a long extension. Obviously, there are those who back the PM or leader in all instances but I get a sense there is growing anger at what has happened and what might yet happen.

    Not slapped down but yes I'm a massive numpty.
    25 labour mps including frontbenchers have written to Jeremy asking for CU and no referendum.
    I'd say it has a good chance.
    Other views exist and are valid
    It has no chance. Labour members are overwhelmingly in favour of revoke and/or a second referendum. Overwhelmingly. In the period since the referendum I have attended meetings at which a total of perhaps 500 members have been present at one time or another and during that time I have heard two people speak in favour of Brexit. Two. Out of 500. My CLP is very similar demographically to Corbyn's. The chances of Labour coming to any agreement that does not involve a referendum are nil. Zero. (Which means IMO that there will be no agreement, not that there will be a referendum).
    Don’t you mean Labour members in your CLP, or are you arguing that it is representative of the whole?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT

    Christ, if a walk in Wales meant a GE what does a house in Ireland presage?

    https://twitter.com/munsterexpress/status/1113398563604783104

    In the EU!!!!!!!!
    Won't piss off the DUP at all, at all. Perhaps she will also convert to Catholicism.
    Dunmore East is a really nice place

    rather she hadnt gone there
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    viewcode said:

    @HarryHayfield

    Excellent article as always. Have you perchance heard the Comic Relief song "Newport State Of Mind". The article seemed to make reference to some of the lyrics... :)

    I preferred Goldie Lookin' Chain's response "You're Not From Newport"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    What you have left out of your summary is that the humans who rebelled did so, not out of antipathy towards the aliens, but because the aliens were not open about why they were restricting / controlling humanity. The exiles ended up escaping back in time and - at the end of the story - they cross the earlier galaxy to help the ancestors of that mystic alien race solve their differences and (over time) evolve into the alien race who help earth in the future.

    Silly - but arguably the human rebels ended up being right and saving humanity. Discuss.

    Were the aliens not open and truthful, or was that just the perception of the rebels? Humanity had been granted massive advantages, and yet we were not satisfied. Being part of a larger group does mean you lose something: as that is what being an equal member of any group (even down to the scale of a marriage) means. But you can also gain much more than you lose.

    Your last point is utterly correct: as the arc of the book means that Humanity could not progress to the stars without the rebellion, and especially Marc's part in it.

    Then there is Felice. I really wish she was/is the Carbuncle, but apparently that's not what Julian May wanted ... :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/04/what-do-public-think-about-no-deal-brexit

    A neat summary from Anthony Wells about the popularity of a No Deal Brexit.

    Given a choice between No Deal and Remain, it's 50/50, (which is consistent with other pollsters) but that doesn't make it the preferred option.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2019
    From the Guardian live blog:

    A senior EU official has confirmed that if the UK crashes out of the bloc in nine days time controls will have to be in place on “day one” on milk and other animal products coming from Northern Ireland.

    They say it will “be difficult” to say how the giant co-operatives that currently exist on the south of the border could continue to do daily milk collections picking up both milk from farms on both sides of the frontier.

    They will also see a 19p EU tariff slapped on the payment they get per litre of milk almost doubling the current 26p per litre cost, warned bosses at Dairy UK.


    This is the kind of thing which would make a No Deal crash-out politically and socially catastrophic. It's not our imports that are the big problem (except for the knock-on effect of disruption in trucks going back to the EU), it's our exports, especially of agricultural products and seafood. The latter industry will collapse rapidly if it can't land produce directly and without hold-ups in EU ports.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Huge leak of water in the commons, its proper broken
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Huge leak of water in the commons, its proper broken

    The Palace of Westminster was very badly built.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678

    eristdoof said:

    "Candidates duly nominated:
    Jonathan Clark (Plaid Cymru), June Davies (Renew), Matthew Evans (Conservative), Neil Hamilton (United Kingdom Independence Party), Ruth Jones (Labour), Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrats), Ian Mclean (Social Democrats), Hugh Nicklin (For Britain), Richard Suchorzwski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly), Phillip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans), Amelia Womacj (Green Party)"


    How does Neil Hamilton have the nerve to keep standing for parliament?

    He’s ignored the will of the people.
    The disgraced former MP, Neil Hamilton, (to give him his full title) has an even thicker skin than the disgraced former GP Liam Fox, who is currently having great success getting all those trade deals for us
    I had not realised Hamilton had attended my University (Aber).
    I'd like to hope they've expunged all records of him having been there.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741


    Not slapped down but yes I'm a massive numpty.
    25 labour mps including frontbenchers have written to Jeremy asking for CU and no referendum.
    I'd say it has a good chance.
    Other views exist and are valid

    I'm not disputing there is widespread support for a CU without a referendum. What I'm pointing out (as I think David Herdson did last Saturday) is trying to work out the form of PD required without a WA is akin to sitting on the Titanic, watching the ship start to sink and then trying to decide what to have for dinner.

    Quite apart from its irrelevance, why should any future Government or Prime Minister or Commons be bound by a decision of April 2019 as to going for a CU, or a Common Market 2.0 or a Canada ++ or a Norway Lite or an Andorran Mild or an "I prefer a pint of mild to Bacardi & Coke". There's an argument for putting three or four options to the British people in a referendum but again none of that matters while the WA remains unresolved.

    We're back to the WA - why should those who opposed it before support it now because it's wrapped in a CU ribbon? Answer, they won't.

    Down it goes for the final time and May goes to the EU summit with the last two options being to leave without a WA on 12/4 or extend ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Commons suspended due to leak. Lolol
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Huge leak of water in the commons, its proper broken

    It's OK, it's the press gallery which is getting a dunking.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Huge leak of water in the commons, its proper broken

    The roof falling in is an omen
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    edited April 2019
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After my thoughts were slapped down by some numpty who seemed convinced the WA with a CU would clear the Commons on Monday, I did a little more thinking.

    The key document for the EU is the WA - the Political Declaration is what comes after so at the moment too many people are putting the cart before the horse. We "could" have a national referendum/election on the various PD options and there may be something to be said for that but at the moment the WA is all that matters.

    I don't see why anything that has happened in the past 72 hours makes getting the WA through the Commons any easier. The DUP and the ERG diehards will still be opposed and while the May apologists continue to "report" Labour MPs are apparently willing to rebel and back the WA until we see them in the correct lobby it will be all just talk.

    Without a WA it's either leaving on 12/4 or seeking a further extension and I'm far from convinced the mood of the Conservative Party is favourably disposed toward a long extension. Obviously, there are those who back the PM or leader in all instances but I get a sense there is growing anger at what has happened and what might yet happen.

    Not slapped down but yes I'm a massive numpty.
    25 labour mps including frontbenchers have written to Jeremy asking for CU and no referendum.
    I'd say it has a good chance.
    Other views exist and are valid
    It has no chance. Labour members are overwhelmingly in favour of revoke and/or a second referendum. Overwhelmingly. In the period since the referendum I have attended meetings at which a total of perhaps 500 members have been present at one time or another and during that time I have heard two people speak in favour of Brexit. Two. Out of 500. My CLP is very similar demographically to Corbyn's. The chances of Labour coming to any agreement that does not involve a referendum are nil. Zero. (Which means IMO that there will be no agreement, not that there will be a referendum).
    Don’t you mean Labour members in your CLP, or are you arguing that it is representative of the whole?
    I would say my CLP is more pro-remain than average but most studies I have seen say Labour members are at least 80% remain nationally. And the proportion tend to be higher in seats with Labour MPs. The fact that a commitment to a second referendum was made by the 2018 conference despite leadership attempts to prevent it shows the strength of feeling and it can only have increased since then. And there is clearly a threat of more defections to TIG if Corbyn tries to put through an agreement with May that does not include a referendum. Anti-referendum MPs, on the other hand, have nowhere to go - they can hardly join the ERG!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    stodge said:


    Not slapped down but yes I'm a massive numpty.
    25 labour mps including frontbenchers have written to Jeremy asking for CU and no referendum.
    I'd say it has a good chance.
    Other views exist and are valid

    I'm not disputing there is widespread support for a CU without a referendum. What I'm pointing out (as I think David Herdson did last Saturday) is trying to work out the form of PD required without a WA is akin to sitting on the Titanic, watching the ship start to sink and then trying to decide what to have for dinner.

    Quite apart from its irrelevance, why should any future Government or Prime Minister or Commons be bound by a decision of April 2019 as to going for a CU, or a Common Market 2.0 or a Canada ++ or a Norway Lite or an Andorran Mild or an "I prefer a pint of mild to Bacardi & Coke". There's an argument for putting three or four options to the British people in a referendum but again none of that matters while the WA remains unresolved.

    We're back to the WA - why should those who opposed it before support it now because it's wrapped in a CU ribbon? Answer, they won't.

    Down it goes for the final time and May goes to the EU summit with the last two options being to leave without a WA on 12/4 or extend ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
    I see your point, I'm just thinking mps might, or perhaps will, blink and pass an option that gets us out if faced with the prospect of perhaps revoking and facing the storm
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Oh right, who said so during the campaign?
    Cameron was pretty clear the result would be implemented

    Despite previous experience most people take a promise from a PM at face value
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    From the Guardian live blog:

    A senior EU official has confirmed that if the UK crashes out of the bloc in nine days time controls will have to be in place on “day one” on milk and other animal products coming from Northern Ireland.

    They say it will “be difficult” to say how the giant co-operatives that currently exist on the south of the border could continue to do daily milk collections picking up both milk from farms on both sides of the frontier.

    They will also see a 19p EU tariff slapped on the payment they get per litre of milk almost doubling the current 26p per litre cost, warned bosses at Dairy UK.


    This is the kind of thing which would make a No Deal crash-out politically and socially catastrophic. It's not our imports that are the big problem (except for the knock-on effect of disruption in trucks going back to the EU), it's our exports, especially of agricultural products and seafood. The latter industry will collapse rapidly if it can't land produce directly and without hold-ups in EU ports.

    I simply don't believe it. Perhaps the Irish and UK gov'ts will reach an agreement to pay the value of tariffs to the EU as part mitigation and plead special measures otherwise.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    rpjs said:

    viewcode said:

    @HarryHayfield

    Excellent article as always. Have you perchance heard the Comic Relief song "Newport State Of Mind". The article seemed to make reference to some of the lyrics... :)

    I preferred Goldie Lookin' Chain's response "You're Not From Newport"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx8CZyFM4b4
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    During the referendum campaign, I don't remember anyone saying either that the result was only advisory, or that MPs would have the chance to prevent us leaving after Article 50 was invoked.

    Did they?

    Yes. This was in comparison to the AV referendum in 2011 which explicitly was binding.
    Oh right, who said so during the campaign?
    Cameron was pretty clear the result would be implemented

    Despite previous experience most people take a promise from a PM at face value
    Did Cameron have the authority to give that undertaking?

    For my part, I voted as I did on the understanding that it was only advisory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569

    In the 1980s and 1990s, the late Julian May wrote a series of eight books: the four Pliocene Exile books, the standalone vinculum 'Intervention', and the three novels of the Galactic Milieu trilogy.

    In them, she describe a world where alien races have come to Earth whilst we were on the brink of nuclear war and offered us the stars. Since then, mankind has moved out from Earth to planets around the Galaxy: the large nations have many worlds, the smaller a few, and the smallest share some. Vast liners travel the ether between worlds, and mankind is flourishing.

    Yet there are discontents. Humans - often powerful and influential ones - who rail against the aliens with whom we share control. We once controlled the world, but we are now a small piece of a gigantic Galactic cog. We should be in charge.

    So these discontents start a rebellion that destroys worlds and kills billions. It is a pointless rebellion: one where they shake their fists at the very beings who have treated us well.

    And it ends with Humanity chastened and still part of the Milieu. Little has changed, for the course was inevitable, and changing it would destroy everything.

    And that is now what might happen to Brexit. We in the UK have a history that is littered with glory, and it is easy to sit back and want those glories to return. Britannia ruled the waves, and we ruled the world. But that world has changed: first came America, and then other countries overtook us. We are a small country: proud and brilliant, but small - in a world where size matters.

    In such a world, is the EU an inevitability?

    So we have a choice: to join up with other small countries (and smaller ones) to form a bloc that has more power together, or to be small and alone. It seems that the former might be inevitable. If so, perhaps the wettest of wet dreams of hardcore Europhiles are correct and, like Humanity after the rebellion, we will eventually become leaders of the group.

    If so, then Brexit may be, like the rebellion in the books, a felix culpa - a blessed fall.

    What you have left out of your summary is that the humans who rebelled did so, not out of antipathy towards the aliens, but because the aliens were not open about why they were restricting / controlling humanity. The exiles ended up escaping back in time and - at the end of the story - they cross the earlier galaxy to help the ancestors of that mystic alien race solve their differences and (over time) evolve into the alien race who help earth in the future.

    Silly - but arguably the human rebels ended up being right and saving humanity. Discuss.
    I'm liking the 'going back in time to sort things out' idea...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    From the Guardian live blog:

    A senior EU official has confirmed that if the UK crashes out of the bloc in nine days time controls will have to be in place on “day one” on milk and other animal products coming from Northern Ireland.

    They say it will “be difficult” to say how the giant co-operatives that currently exist on the south of the border could continue to do daily milk collections picking up both milk from farms on both sides of the frontier.

    They will also see a 19p EU tariff slapped on the payment they get per litre of milk almost doubling the current 26p per litre cost, warned bosses at Dairy UK.


    This is the kind of thing which would make a No Deal crash-out politically and socially catastrophic. It's not our imports that are the big problem (except for the knock-on effect of disruption in trucks going back to the EU), it's our exports, especially of agricultural products and seafood. The latter industry will collapse rapidly if it can't land produce directly and without hold-ups in EU ports.

    I simply don't believe it. Perhaps the Irish and UK gov'ts will reach an agreement to pay the value of tariffs to the EU as part mitigation and plead special measures otherwise.
    It's not the tariffs which are the main issue. It's the legal position regarding import of foodstuffs into the EU from a third country.

    And even if they do somehow manage to sort out something for Ireland (under what powers, though?), that doesn't alter the general point. There are lots and lots of these type of problem. Even if it legally could do so, is the EU going to go to enormous trouble for the sake of (Leave-voting!) Aberdeen fishermen, for example?

    Saying 'I simple don't believe it' is not good enough. Those problems are not fictional, they are the direct effect of EU treaty law which any expert can tell you about.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2019
    Tesla's share price tumbled nearly 9% after the electric carmaker warned on profits following a 31% drop in vehicle deliveries during the first quarter.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47817830

    image
This discussion has been closed.