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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will be the party of the next MP?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will be the party of the next MP?

I’ve just come across this intriguing market from Smarkets on what will be the party of the next MP. The options listed on OddsChecker are featured above.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    edited April 2019
    First?

    First like Lab in the 2019 Peterborough byelection.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Second.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    If there's no by-election before a snap election do all options win with vastly reduced payouts due to dead heat rules, that's what I want to know.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,954
    Don't know if the Assange documentary on BBC4 is a repeat but first time I've seen it. Regardless of the political rights and wrongs (which are now lost in the fog of culture wars in any case), but he's a dodgy creature, not quite the clean potato as my gran used to say.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Something has gone horribly wrong, the linked market is the next MP TO JOIN TIG
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011

    Something has gone horribly wrong, the linked market is the next MP TO JOIN TIG

    36/1 for the DUP?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215

    Something has gone horribly wrong, the linked market is the next MP TO JOIN TIG

    Which makes sense, looking at the odds. I think the lead is adrift.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder if it's possible to bet on Candace Owens being the GOP candidate in 2024.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,302

    Don't know if the Assange documentary on BBC4 is a repeat but first time I've seen it. Regardless of the political rights and wrongs (which are now lost in the fog of culture wars in any case), but he's a dodgy creature, not quite the clean potato as my gran used to say.

    Surely that sentence is the wrong way around? Isn't it the 'political rights and wrongs' that should indeed be debated, and whether Assange is a narcissist, rapist, indoor skateboarding cat botherer that enjoys smearing his walls with his own excrement is the 'fog' we need to see through?

    Surely the salient fact is, that it would appear that the US Government can now reach beyond its borders to arrest foreign publishers who piss it off. To its credit, the loony left is the only group making this point, with the possible exception of some eccentrics like Peter Hitchins, who sometimes has a pop when something like this happens.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The senior circuit judge, speaking at Salisbury crown court, disclosed the extraordinary coincidence of being summoned to sit as a juror in a hearing he would be conducting.

    “I was selected for jury service here at Salisbury crown court for a trial starting 23 April,” he said.

    “I told the jury central summoning bureau that I thought I would be inappropriate, seeing I happened to be the judge and knew all the papers.

    “They wrote back to me. They picked up on the fact I was the judge but said ‘Your appeal for refusal has been rejected but you could apply to the resident judge’, but I told them, ‘I am the resident judge’.


    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/apr/16/judge-summoned-for-jury-duty-at-hearing-he-would-conduct
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Not sure why Green is 32 and Sinn Fein is 68.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919

    Something has gone horribly wrong, the linked market is the next MP TO JOIN TIG

    36/1 for the DUP?
    Sound about right.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152

    The senior circuit judge, speaking at Salisbury crown court, disclosed the extraordinary coincidence of being summoned to sit as a juror in a hearing he would be conducting.

    “I was selected for jury service here at Salisbury crown court for a trial starting 23 April,” he said.

    “I told the jury central summoning bureau that I thought I would be inappropriate, seeing I happened to be the judge and knew all the papers.

    “They wrote back to me. They picked up on the fact I was the judge but said ‘Your appeal for refusal has been rejected but you could apply to the resident judge’, but I told them, ‘I am the resident judge’.


    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/apr/16/judge-summoned-for-jury-duty-at-hearing-he-would-conduct

    Kafka is out of a job.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,892

    The senior circuit judge, speaking at Salisbury crown court, disclosed the extraordinary coincidence of being summoned to sit as a juror in a hearing he would be conducting.

    “I was selected for jury service here at Salisbury crown court for a trial starting 23 April,” he said.

    “I told the jury central summoning bureau that I thought I would be inappropriate, seeing I happened to be the judge and knew all the papers.

    “They wrote back to me. They picked up on the fact I was the judge but said ‘Your appeal for refusal has been rejected but you could apply to the resident judge’, but I told them, ‘I am the resident judge’.


    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/apr/16/judge-summoned-for-jury-duty-at-hearing-he-would-conduct

    That’s great! 😊
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    The senior circuit judge, speaking at Salisbury crown court, disclosed the extraordinary coincidence of being summoned to sit as a juror in a hearing he would be conducting.

    “I was selected for jury service here at Salisbury crown court for a trial starting 23 April,” he said.

    “I told the jury central summoning bureau that I thought I would be inappropriate, seeing I happened to be the judge and knew all the papers.

    “They wrote back to me. They picked up on the fact I was the judge but said ‘Your appeal for refusal has been rejected but you could apply to the resident judge’, but I told them, ‘I am the resident judge’.


    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/apr/16/judge-summoned-for-jury-duty-at-hearing-he-would-conduct

    LOL...
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker

    Oh well at least you havent crashed the markets this time
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited April 2019
    Justine Greening or Philip Lee look plausible, I think most of the Labour MPs who might join it in anger at Corbyn and Brexit have done so, a few more diehard Tory Remainers might go
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,618
    AndyJS said:

    I wonder if it's possible to bet on Candace Owens being the GOP candidate in 2024.

    Apropos of nothing, it is impossible to see "GOP" without giggling. I know it's pronounced "gee-oh-pee" but I can't help but think of "gopping"
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152

    NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker

    :smiley: Oh well, we all make mistakes. Certainly the odds make more sense now, although 68 for Sinn Fein is a joke. More like 10,000/1 surely?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503

    Don't know if the Assange documentary on BBC4 is a repeat but first time I've seen it. Regardless of the political rights and wrongs (which are now lost in the fog of culture wars in any case), but he's a dodgy creature, not quite the clean potato as my gran used to say.

    Surely that sentence is the wrong way around? Isn't it the 'political rights and wrongs' that should indeed be debated, and whether Assange is a narcissist, rapist, indoor skateboarding cat botherer that enjoys smearing his walls with his own excrement is the 'fog' we need to see through?

    Surely the salient fact is, that it would appear that the US Government can now reach beyond its borders to arrest foreign publishers who piss it off. To its credit, the loony left is the only group making this point, with the possible exception of some eccentrics like Peter Hitchins, who sometimes has a pop when something like this happens.
    Except the US Government has arrested no one, or has something happened today?

    I understood that the arrest was for skipping bail and under British jurisdiction.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019

    NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker

    :smiley: Oh well, we all make mistakes. Certainly the odds make more sense now, although 68 for Sinn Fein is a joke. More like 10,000/1 surely?
    Especially considering it's hard to believe they'd join a party with UK in its name...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Hurrah. Although taken a 900 year old centrepiece of western civilisation to burn half to the ground in order to keep the 'B' word off.
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Yet two ex Man Utd players in separate stories
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    It is an intriguing bet, but with a couple of Tory MEP defections today, I think Tory most likely for MP too.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Telegraph: "Grassroots Conservative chairmen planning no-confidence vote in Theresa May 'within weeks' "

    Extraordinary measures could be used to call VONC.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,892

    NOTE the header has changed. I misread Oddschecker

    Smarkets do have quite a lot of political markets up, albeit low liquidity. Some Euro election match bets

    https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/uk/european-parliamentary-elections-2019-uk
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    It is an intriguing bet, but with a couple of Tory MEP defections today, I think Tory most likely for MP too.

    But all these Tory defections are surely going to repel further Labour defections.

    There might be a lot of Labour MPs who are unhappy with Corbyn, but almost all of them also feel that austerity (and Tory economics generally) has been a disaster for their constituents. If there was a new, alternative Labour party being created, there would probably be a lot more defections, but the likes of Jess Phillips and Siobhain McDonagh don't seem interested in joining an Anna Soubry-style wet Tory party.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    This video has an interesting chart on us electorate opinions on social and economic issues.

    https://youtu.be/bMipM3RE2UA
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    It's a joke.

    But may be one of the most profound things I have read in a long time, bearing in mind I am half way through 'Uninhabitable Earth' by Wallace-Wells.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    edited April 2019
    Oh...

    "PETE BUTTIGIEG'S blossoming presidential campaign is earning early financial assistance from key members of former President Barack Obama's administration.

    Former national security adviser Susan Rice, deputy senior adviser Stephanie Cutter, press secretary Jay Carney, National Security Council spokesman Ned Price and U.S. Ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy all donated to Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign during the first quarter of the year, according to new documents filed with the Federal Election Commission."

    https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run/articles/2019-04-16/obama-alumni-donate-to-pete-buttigieg


    Caroline Kennedy!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2019
    Freggles said:

    twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19

    That has to be a spoof....spreadsheet phil and inspiration is clearly a wind up.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,618

    This video has an interesting chart on us electorate opinions on social and economic issues.

    https://youtu.be/bMipM3RE2UA

    I liked the analysis. but he could have said it a lot faster... :(
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621
    Danny565 said:

    Foxy said:

    It is an intriguing bet, but with a couple of Tory MEP defections today, I think Tory most likely for MP too.

    But all these Tory defections are surely going to repel further Labour defections.

    There might be a lot of Labour MPs who are unhappy with Corbyn, but almost all of them also feel that austerity (and Tory economics generally) has been a disaster for their constituents. If there was a new, alternative Labour party being created, there would probably be a lot more defections, but the likes of Jess Phillips and Siobhain McDonagh don't seem interested in joining an Anna Soubry-style wet Tory party.
    So essentially no one is really interested in being in a new party, they just want to be the same party but with different branding, if they cannot contemplate working with others. That's fine if there is nothing that could see them leave, and at least they do stay quiet for long periods since theres not much point being constantly vocal if the party could do anything and it wouldn't matter. Which by still being consumed by labour or Tory partisan issues is what they are doing.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621

    Freggles said:

    twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19

    That has to be a spoof....spreadsheet phil and inspiration is clearly a wind up.
    Conservative giants is a good one. Whatever the merits or lack thereof of those 4 I dont think all qualify as giants.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,618

    Freggles said:

    twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19

    That has to be a spoof....spreadsheet phil and inspiration is clearly a wind up.
    Probably. There seems to be a rash of them...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=X8Y8MIjE6Ro
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    viewcode said:

    Freggles said:

    twitter.com/PhilForLeader/status/1118143201586634755?s=19

    That has to be a spoof....spreadsheet phil and inspiration is clearly a wind up.
    Probably. There seems to be a rash of them...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=X8Y8MIjE6Ro
    https://order-order.com/2019/04/16/social-media-race-succeed-theresa-may/
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    viewcode said:

    This video has an interesting chart on us electorate opinions on social and economic issues.

    https://youtu.be/bMipM3RE2UA

    I liked the analysis. but he could have said it a lot faster... :(
    Unfortunately the current youtube algorithm / payments has led to youtubers being rewarded best for 10 min videos.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Not all Dem runners have made the grade for the June debates, so far:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-might-make-the-democratic-debate-stage/
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Not all Dem runners have made the grade for the June debates, so far:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-might-make-the-democratic-debate-stage/

    Crickey the yang gang qualifies.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2019
    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6929609/St-Helens-Merseyside-councillor-investigation-dressing-Adolf-Hitler-fancy-dress.html

    It was before he was elected, but you have to question the intelligence of.somebody who thinks that is a good outfit for a charity fundraiser. Its not like he was on prince harrys stag do.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,618

    viewcode said:

    This video has an interesting chart on us electorate opinions on social and economic issues.

    https://youtu.be/bMipM3RE2UA

    I liked the analysis. but he could have said it a lot faster... :(
    Unfortunately the current youtube algorithm / payments has led to youtubers being rewarded best for 10 min videos.
    I know, it's b****y annoying. Some tubers started padding out their videos a bit around last year, but others just make longer and loonger and loooonger ones. Consider @DougDeMuro or @CinemaSins, who are churning out 20mins+ videos compared to 5 or 10 mins ones in the past.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,618

    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...

    "Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
    "What's it for?"
    "A children's hospice"
    "Go as Batman?"
    "Too silly"
    "Superman?"
    "Too skinny"
    "Big Bunny?"
    "Too twee"
    "Adolf Hitler?"
    "GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152

    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6929609/St-Helens-Merseyside-councillor-investigation-dressing-Adolf-Hitler-fancy-dress.html

    It was before he was elected, but you have to question the intelligence of.somebody who thinks that is a good outfit for a charity fundraiser. Its not like he was on prince harrys stag do.

    Ken would have something to say on this matter surely?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    viewcode said:

    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...

    "Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
    "What's it for?"
    "A children's hospice"
    "Go as Batman?"
    "Too silly"
    "Superman?"
    "Too skinny"
    "Big Bunny?"
    "Too twee"
    "Adolf Hitler?"
    "GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

    Maybe he left it late and that was the only outfit they had available in the shop.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    Not all Dem runners have made the grade for the June debates, so far:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-might-make-the-democratic-debate-stage/

    Biden making the same mistake he made in 2016, forgetting to announce that he's running
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152

    Not all Dem runners have made the grade for the June debates, so far:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-might-make-the-democratic-debate-stage/

    Biden making the same mistake he made in 2016, forgetting to announce that he's running
    If he is, then imho he will announce just after Easter.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    viewcode said:

    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...

    "Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
    "What's it for?"
    "A children's hospice"
    "Go as Batman?"
    "Too silly"
    "Superman?"
    "Too skinny"
    "Big Bunny?"
    "Too twee"
    "Adolf Hitler?"
    "GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

    This is the guy they are putting in charge of investigating any anti-semite activity. I have got that right haven't I?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,618

    viewcode said:

    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...

    "Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
    "What's it for?"
    "A children's hospice"
    "Go as Batman?"
    "Too silly"
    "Superman?"
    "Too skinny"
    "Big Bunny?"
    "Too twee"
    "Adolf Hitler?"
    "GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

    Maybe he left it late and that was the only outfit they had available in the shop.
    "Bbbbut...haven't you got any costumes left?"
    "Well, now that you mention it..."
    "Great! I'll take it!
    "Don't you want to know what it is?"
    "Don' matter. I'll change in the car" [throws notes at her, runs out]
    "Suit yourself... :) "
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,618

    viewcode said:

    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...

    "Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
    "What's it for?"
    "A children's hospice"
    "Go as Batman?"
    "Too silly"
    "Superman?"
    "Too skinny"
    "Big Bunny?"
    "Too twee"
    "Adolf Hitler?"
    "GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

    This is the guy they are putting in charge of investigating any anti-semite activity. I have got that right haven't I?
    Well he seems well qualified to find it, if nothing else... :(
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...

    "Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
    "What's it for?"
    "A children's hospice"
    "Go as Batman?"
    "Too silly"
    "Superman?"
    "Too skinny"
    "Big Bunny?"
    "Too twee"
    "Adolf Hitler?"
    "GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

    This is the guy they are putting in charge of investigating any anti-semite activity. I have got that right haven't I?
    Well he seems well qualified to find it, if nothing else... :(
    Good point.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    Is Boris Johnson still eligible?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    viewcode said:

    Labour councillor under investigation over pictures of him in an Adolf Hitler costume for children's hospice fancy dress fundraiser...

    "Honey, I'm going to a fancy dress fund raiser. What should I wear?"
    "What's it for?"
    "A children's hospice"
    "Go as Batman?"
    "Too silly"
    "Superman?"
    "Too skinny"
    "Big Bunny?"
    "Too twee"
    "Adolf Hitler?"
    "GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

    Surely, it's a lot better than turning up as Jimmy Saville or Michael Jackson.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Is Boris Johnson still eligible?
    He never was. AFAIK he never resided for fourteen years in the US.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    RobD said:
    There's all those Windrush payments to oversee......
This discussion has been closed.