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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest prob

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

Memo to Conservative Party:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    First!
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Deuxieme....(in respect to Notre Dame)
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    edited April 2019
    The Conservatives are about to be swamped by the perfect storm - the unwanted Euro elections will be dominated by Nigel Farrage's face and I predict the Brexit Party will get at least double the Conservative vote. The only thing preventing a higher vote will be voter confusion with UKIP.

    Meanwhile the Tiggers will continue to prove their heads are made of rubbber, and fail to make an impact due to confused messaging.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited April 2019
    How about this:

    1) Stall until they can remove TMay
    2) New leader runs on No Deal
    3) New leader moves into Number 10, proclaims their intention to enact a glorious No Deal Brexit
    4) Continuity Remainers defect, VONC passes
    5) GE on a Renegotiate Or No Deal platform
    6) Win majority against Corbyn, who despite everything is still not very good
    7) Go to Brussels, be told to fuck off
    8) Shrug
    9) Pass TMay's deal
    10) Rule until 2025
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Fourth like Boris
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Great lead. As Alastair says, it is the perfect dilemma for the Tories - any resolution, from Remain through softer Brexit or May's deal or No Deal leaves a significant part of the party and its voter base even more upset. They are in a difficult spot right now, but with the single consolation that the complete mess they have made of things allows every faction to imagine a way through to its perfect outcome. Anything they actually do now will make things worse.

    If we had a moderate, sensible and united opposition party it would surely be breaking all records for its polling lead right now?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Hard to argue with Alastair's logic on this.

    Off topic, a late April fool's I guess:

    https://tinyurl.com/y6ts8gz8

    The global financial system faces an existential threat from climate change and must take urgent steps to reform, the governors of the Bank of England and France’s central bank have warned, writing in the Guardian.

    The heads of two of the world’s most influential central banks urged other financial regulators around the world to carry out climate change stress tests to spot any risks in the system, while also calling for more collaboration between nations on the issue. They warned that a “massive reallocation of capital” was necessary to prevent global warming above the 2°C maximum target set by the Paris climate agreement, with the banking system required to play a pivotal role.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Worth a read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/17/theresa-may-successor-tories-leadership-brexit


    "There was no route to a united Conservative party in 2016 because none of the challenges confronting Britain were going to be resolved by leaving the EU. And in 2019, more Brexit is not a serious answer to any question that might be asked of a Tory leadership candidate."

    "Conservatives cannot outbid Corbyn in public benefaction. If May promised every voter a holiday in Tenerife, Labour would offer to fly them to Elevenerife."

    "The choice is between a difficult, honest conversation about the causes of public discontent and an easy, cynical campaign to distil the anger into electoral fuel and ignite it. It is clear which path a responsible party of government would take. But who, looking at the Tories now, sees such a party?"
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The Tories will be fine. Their instinct for self preservation ultimately trumps other concerns.
  • CaptainBuzzkillCaptainBuzzkill Posts: 335
    edited April 2019
    If you view politics through a prism of Brexit then I can imagine the current situation probably does look something akin to the header.

    However, it would perhaps provide the obsessives with a slightly different outlook if they spoke to normal people rather than existing in an echo chamber.

    Come the next GE there will of course be those who are as obsessed with Brexit as the op but the vast majority will be focused on how their vote will directly affect their jobs and families.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    A third of the population would not sign up for the euro.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    A third of the population would not sign up for the euro.

    It is really that low?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    A third of the population would not sign up for the euro.

    Currently at about 26% according to Wikipedia, so only a slight exaggeration. Mazin innit.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_and_the_euro?wprov=sfti1
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Streeter said:

    A third of the population would not sign up for the euro.

    Currently at about 26% according to Wikipedia, so only a slight exaggeration. Mazin innit.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_and_the_euro?wprov=sfti1
    Yes, I think it’d be between 20-25% were it to come to a vote.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    IanB2 said:


    "Conservatives cannot outbid Corbyn in public benefaction. If May promised every voter a holiday in Tenerife, Labour would offer to fly them to Elevenerife."

    LOL
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    The biggest problem for the Conservatives is they can’t seem to stop themselves from talking about anything else.

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    I can’t remember the last time any Conservative talked about domestic policy. And it’s that which people will care about in a general election, whereas Brexit will be a hygiene factor.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    The biggest problem for the Conservatives is they can’t seem to stop themselves from talking about anything else.

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    I can’t remember the last time any Conservative talked about domestic policy. And it’s that which people will care about in a general election, whereas Brexit will be a hygiene factor.

    Matt Hancock talked about something, can’t remember what it was though. It was a bit meh.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    IanB2 said:

    Worth a read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/17/theresa-may-successor-tories-leadership-brexit


    "There was no route to a united Conservative party in 2016 because none of the challenges confronting Britain were going to be resolved by leaving the EU. And in 2019, more Brexit is not a serious answer to any question that might be asked of a Tory leadership candidate."

    "Conservatives cannot outbid Corbyn in public benefaction. If May promised every voter a holiday in Tenerife, Labour would offer to fly them to Elevenerife."

    "The choice is between a difficult, honest conversation about the causes of public discontent and an easy, cynical campaign to distil the anger into electoral fuel and ignite it. It is clear which path a responsible party of government would take. But who, looking at the Tories now, sees such a party?"

    Most Conservatives want an end to political union and a new political relationship established with the EU based on non-membership on the best terms we can get.

    Once done, they will be interested in a Government that can best raise the quality of life here in the UK.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The biggest problem for the Conservatives is they can’t seem to stop themselves from talking about anything else.

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    I can’t remember the last time any Conservative talked about domestic policy. And it’s that which people will care about in a general election, whereas Brexit will be a hygiene factor.

    A hygiene factor where for half the population the Conservatives are going to be dirty, dirty, dirty.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories will be fine. Their instinct for self preservation ultimately trumps other concerns.

    The Conservative party, as a party stands for electing a government of 'our friends'. They have a fairly nebulous philosophy, based loosely around an idea of 'patriotism', and 'don't rock the boat, it'll be OK if we're in charge.'
    So yes, they'll suffer in the short-term, but not as badly as some expect (?hope) and it won't be long before they'll be back.
    Sadly.
    There'll be some casualties along the way, of course, Boris being one of them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited April 2019

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Jonathan said:

    The biggest problem for the Conservatives is they can’t seem to stop themselves from talking about anything else.

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    I can’t remember the last time any Conservative talked about domestic policy. And it’s that which people will care about in a general election, whereas Brexit will be a hygiene factor.

    Matt Hancock talked about something, can’t remember what it was though. It was a bit meh.
    Nice guy, but he is a bit meh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited April 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    Then, it’s up to you to propose a new system to measure the performance and quality of teaching and schools in its stead as an alternative.

    Arguing for none is not a credible position.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Better news for the Canadian Conservatives in Alberta, where they’ve just hammered the NDP:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    Yep.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Jonathan said:

    The biggest problem for the Conservatives is they can’t seem to stop themselves from talking about anything else.

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    I can’t remember the last time any Conservative talked about domestic policy. And it’s that which people will care about in a general election, whereas Brexit will be a hygiene factor.

    Matt Hancock talked about something, can’t remember what it was though. It was a bit meh.
    Perhaps it was the dropping of safe staffing standards because of the recruitment and retention crisis?

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1118041093415866370?s=19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    Except lawyers, of course ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,725
    “Labour have no incentive now to help Theresa May – the opposite. From their viewpoint the government’s inability to deliver its promise to its voters is an immensely valuable gift. Why on earth would they give it away again?“

    Interfering with the referendum result required MPs to open Pandora’s box and, despite the promises made by those who went before them as well as themselves, they were unable to resist. Now all sorts of troubles have been unleashed that they lack the ability to deal with.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    Then, it’s up to you to propose a new system to measure the performance and quality of teaching and schools in its stead as an alternative.

    Arguing for none is not a credible position.
    We already do that. We have to pay thousands to a private company testing Year 7 on entry precisely because SATS are worthless. So I really don't know what your point is.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    Except lawyers, of course ;)
    Especially lawyers!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited April 2019

    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.

    The producers in education are civil servants, usually low grade ones of which Spielmann is only the most egregious example, and politicians (enough said).

    So getting rid of them would actually be a good way of eliminating producer interest.

    Put it this way - how would you feel if the law society was run entirely by amateur magistrates?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563

    IanB2 said:

    Worth a read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/17/theresa-may-successor-tories-leadership-brexit


    "There was no route to a united Conservative party in 2016 because none of the challenges confronting Britain were going to be resolved by leaving the EU. And in 2019, more Brexit is not a serious answer to any question that might be asked of a Tory leadership candidate."

    "Conservatives cannot outbid Corbyn in public benefaction. If May promised every voter a holiday in Tenerife, Labour would offer to fly them to Elevenerife."

    "The choice is between a difficult, honest conversation about the causes of public discontent and an easy, cynical campaign to distil the anger into electoral fuel and ignite it. It is clear which path a responsible party of government would take. But who, looking at the Tories now, sees such a party?"

    Most Conservatives want an end to political union and a new political relationship established with the EU based on non-membership on the best terms we can get.

    Once done, they will be interested in a Government that can best raise the quality of life here in the UK.
    ‘Once done’ is bearing a great deal of weight, and begging a thousand questions there.

    The point, which both Alastair and the article made fairly persuasively, is that the Conservatives have been and continue to be consumed by Brexit to the exclusion of normal politics.

    Voters haven’t suspended their desire for ‘a government that can best raise the quality of life’ in the interim, whereas this government gives every impression of having put any such project on hold.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories will be fine. Their instinct for self preservation ultimately trumps other concerns.

    They'll be fine but not because of a cockroach's instinct for self preservation but because there are no other options.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Worth a read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/17/theresa-may-successor-tories-leadership-brexit


    "There was no route to a united Conservative party in 2016 because none of the challenges confronting Britain were going to be resolved by leaving the EU. And in 2019, more Brexit is not a serious answer to any question that might be asked of a Tory leadership candidate."

    "Conservatives cannot outbid Corbyn in public benefaction. If May promised every voter a holiday in Tenerife, Labour would offer to fly them to Elevenerife."

    "The choice is between a difficult, honest conversation about the causes of public discontent and an easy, cynical campaign to distil the anger into electoral fuel and ignite it. It is clear which path a responsible party of government would take. But who, looking at the Tories now, sees such a party?"

    Most Conservatives want an end to political union and a new political relationship established with the EU based on non-membership on the best terms we can get.

    Once done, they will be interested in a Government that can best raise the quality of life here in the UK.
    ‘Once done’ is bearing a great deal of weight, and begging a thousand questions there.

    The point, which both Alastair and the article made fairly persuasively, is that the Conservatives have been and continue to be consumed by Brexit to the exclusion of normal politics.

    Voters haven’t suspended their desire for ‘a government that can best raise the quality of life’ in the interim, whereas this government gives every impression of having put any such project on hold.
    I don’t think it’s beyond the wit of man.

    If the WA had been voted through last month the FTA would have been wrapped up by 2020/2021, so it would have been ‘done’ in time for GE2022. Not that everyone would have been happy with it, of course.

    But, I suspect that ship has sailed for good now.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.

    Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I agree about Sat's. There are plenty of cheap a d reliable IQ tests which identify raw ability quite accurately.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    Then, it’s up to you to propose a new system to measure the performance and quality of teaching and schools in its stead as an alternative.

    Arguing for none is not a credible position.
    We already do that. We have to pay thousands to a private company testing Year 7 on entry precisely because SATS are worthless. So I really don't know what your point is.
    Are the results publicly published? Can parents read the reports? Is this done consistently and nationally?

    I went to a school that experienced some child welfare issues, so I have a very different view to you on standards, inspections and transparency.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I think the Govt will lose but this isn't the point of this question.... How will cost to the taxpayer in the forthcoming Begum citizenship case be kept to the minimum absolutely necessary ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.

    That's not populism, it's just common sense, although that might be an accident. After all 'sense' and 'Corbyn' are not usually found together unless there's a negative in the sentence as well.

    Although

    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    Then, it’s up to you to propose a new system to measure the performance and quality of teaching and schools in its stead as an alternative.

    Arguing for none is not a credible position.
    We already do that. We have to pay thousands to a private company testing Year 7 on entry precisely because SATS are worthless. So I really don't know what your point is.
    Are the results publicly published? Can parents read the reports? Is this done consistently and nationally?

    I went to a school that experienced some child welfare issues, so I have a very different view to you on standards, inspections and transparency.
    Child welfare issues are not covered by SATs. Directly, anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Worth a read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/17/theresa-may-successor-tories-leadership-brexit


    "There was no route to a united Conservative party in 2016 because none of the challenges confronting Britain were going to be resolved by leaving the EU. And in 2019, more Brexit is not a serious answer to any question that might be asked of a Tory leadership candidate."

    "Conservatives cannot outbid Corbyn in public benefaction. If May promised every voter a holiday in Tenerife, Labour would offer to fly them to Elevenerife."

    "The choice is between a difficult, honest conversation about the causes of public discontent and an easy, cynical campaign to distil the anger into electoral fuel and ignite it. It is clear which path a responsible party of government would take. But who, looking at the Tories now, sees such a party?"

    Most Conservatives want an end to political union and a new political relationship established with the EU based on non-membership on the best terms we can get.

    Once done, they will be interested in a Government that can best raise the quality of life here in the UK.
    ‘Once done’ is bearing a great deal of weight, and begging a thousand questions there.

    The point, which both Alastair and the article made fairly persuasively, is that the Conservatives have been and continue to be consumed by Brexit to the exclusion of normal politics.

    Voters haven’t suspended their desire for ‘a government that can best raise the quality of life’ in the interim, whereas this government gives every impression of having put any such project on hold.
    I don’t think it’s beyond the wit of man.

    If the WA had been voted through last month the FTA would have been wrapped up by 2020/2021, so it would have been ‘done’ in time for GE2022. Not that everyone would have been happy with it, of course.

    But, I suspect that ship has sailed for good now.
    It’s probably not.
    But it has proved utterly beyond the collective wit of the Conservative party. And has indeed destroyed any such concept.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I think the Govt will lose but this isn't the point of this question.... How will cost to the taxpayer in the forthcoming Begum citizenship case be kept to the minimum absolutely necessary ?
    Minimum necessary to ensure that the Government cannot take away someone's citizenship by diktat?
    I'd be prepared to spend quite a lot on that!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I think the Govt will lose but this isn't the point of this question.... How will cost to the taxpayer in the forthcoming Begum citizenship case be kept to the minimum absolutely necessary ?
    Minimum necessary to ensure that the Government cannot take away someone's citizenship by diktat?
    I'd be prepared to spend quite a lot on that!
    They can’t at the moment. There is an automatic right of appeal
  • Nice one, Alastair.

    The Conservatives will continue to kick the can down the road. They will be led by the Cankicker-in-chief until her twelve month exemption from a VONC runs out and will then be replaced. The new Leader will continue to can-kick until the next election is due. Brexit? It will be repeatedly adjourned until everybody is bored stiff with it, and then quietly dropped. Normal politics will resume, and if they are lucky enough to be still facing Corbyn the Conservatives will get some kind of half-decent result. And why not? Normal people have been scared stiff of the prospect of Brexit, the fear of Venezuela will prove scarier.

    This is what I am betting on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I think the Govt will lose but this isn't the point of this question.... How will cost to the taxpayer in the forthcoming Begum citizenship case be kept to the minimum absolutely necessary ?
    Minimum necessary to ensure that the Government cannot take away someone's citizenship by diktat?
    I'd be prepared to spend quite a lot on that!
    The power to remove citizenship is very broad even if her case succeeds. If it concerns people it seems like trying to get a political party to commit to removing the power would be more effective
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I cannot recall looking at SAT scores when looking at schools for Fox jr, or knowing what his scores were.

    It is fairly easy for motivated parents to assess schools by looking at their general ambience, talking to other parents and staff. Less motivated parents do much less of this, but are hardly likely to look at SATs either.

    SATs are a product of pen pushers who can only understand numbers, and therefore must have numbers to look at.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I think the Govt will lose but this isn't the point of this question.... How will cost to the taxpayer in the forthcoming Begum citizenship case be kept to the minimum absolutely necessary ?
    Minimum necessary to ensure that the Government cannot take away someone's citizenship by diktat?
    I'd be prepared to spend quite a lot on that!
    They can’t at the moment. There is an automatic right of appeal
    True, but Justice, like the Ritz Hotel, is open to all. We saw yesterday, in the appeals over those expelled for minor and honest errors in their tax returns, that the last few Home Secretaries have been quite happy to use sledgehammers to crack nuts.
  • Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I cannot recall looking at SAT scores when looking at schools for Fox jr, or knowing what his scores were.

    It is fairly easy for motivated parents to assess schools by looking at their general ambience, talking to other parents and staff. Less motivated parents do much less of this, but are hardly likely to look at SATs either.

    SATs are a product of pen pushers who can only understand numbers, and therefore must have numbers to look at.
    Everything linked to the state gets tested by numbers. Once the pen pushers have a number, they can decide if it's a good or bad number. The trouble is that they mostly use shite numbers and that gives shite answers!
  • Very good piece Alastair. However, the problem I have betting on the outcome of the next GE is that, time and time again over the past several years, the received wisdom proved to be wrong (May winning a majority in 2017, Cameron not winning a majority in 2015 etc). Politics is so fluid at the moment that anything could happen over the next several years.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited April 2019
    Excellent header. The only point I'd take issue with is that any successor leader would face the same problems as May. Through luck rather than judgement May's position is now one of greyness and of not taking any particular side. The Remainers think she on balance tends towards Leave and the Leavers think that on balance she tends towards Remain.

    While at the same time everything she says and does isn't being scrutinised with a view as to how it enhances or diminishes her leadership prospects.

    It is an almost unique profile amongst Cons MPs so any successor I believe will have a much more difficult time than her and hence the thrust of the header is reinforced.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I cannot recall looking at SAT scores when looking at schools for Fox jr, or knowing what his scores were.

    It is fairly easy for motivated parents to assess schools by looking at their general ambience, talking to other parents and staff. Less motivated parents do much less of this, but are hardly likely to look at SATs either.

    SATs are a product of pen pushers who can only understand numbers, and therefore must have numbers to look at.
    I don't recall my daughter and son-in-law being overly concerned about SATs scores for their children, both of whom, as adults have reasonable degrees, are well-thought-of in their professions and have many friends from schooldays.
    However the son and daughter-in-law who live in UK worried enormously about the SATs and whatever reports about their local schools and so far it doesn't seem to have made a lot of difference. That set of grandchildren are much younger, but both travel further to school and don't seem to have as many local friends.
  • Off-topic - one thing I have become increasingly aware of is the increasing lack of people publicly declaring their support for Corbyn on T-shirts, signs in their window etc. I live in Kentish Town and two years ago you would seen a fair few people wearing Corbyn T-shirts, putting signs out for him etc. Now, you see very little. I wonder whether it is just people have moved on or the whole anti-semitism has made people more reticent to declare their support publicly for the man.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:



    It certainly is populism.

    The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.

    Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.

    But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.

    In which it has totally and utterly failed, while actually making matters worse in many crucial respects. Do you want to guess how much history, geography and music is now taught in primary schools, due largely to this?

    SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.

    Get rid. Makes no difference.

    (Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
    I’m not sure there’s much utility in arguing. Everyone believes themself an expert in education...
    Equally, it rarely works out well to leave an industry in the sole control of the producers. They have a habit of preferring their own interests over everyone else’s.
    I don’t see how the abolition of SATS equates to that.

    There needs to be some systematic external supervision of teachers and their teaching. SATS may not do that effectively - I don’t know, I’m no expert - but something is needed in that area.
    I cannot recall looking at SAT scores when looking at schools for Fox jr, or knowing what his scores were.

    It is fairly easy for motivated parents to assess schools by looking at their general ambience, talking to other parents and staff. Less motivated parents do much less of this, but are hardly likely to look at SATs either.

    SATs are a product of pen pushers who can only understand numbers, and therefore must have numbers to look at.
    Everything linked to the state gets tested by numbers. Once the pen pushers have a number, they can decide if it's a good or bad number. The trouble is that they mostly use shite numbers and that gives shite answers!
    Certainly true of the NHS, and when they don't like the numbers, they abolish the target rather than fix the problem, as in the safe staffing I linked to below.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Everything linked to the state gets tested by numbers. Once the pen pushers have a number, they can decide if it's a good or bad number. The trouble is that they mostly use shite numbers and that gives shite answers!

    GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out.

    However, what is the alternative? If you need to make a decision at any level, and you need a decision to be based on firm data, then you need that data. Poor data doesn't mean you should just stop collecting data; it just means you need to improve the data and methods of collection.

    Not making decisions based on data can lead to all sorts of other problems.

    I note on the radio last night that the Labour spokeswoman (I cannot remember her name) said there would still be data collected; it would just be in another form. Sadly she was rather vague in what the 'other form' would be ...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880
    Great thread header. I'm betting on May to stick around. If she can make it to 2020 my book will be delighted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    Very good piece Alastair. However, the problem I have betting on the outcome of the next GE is that, time and time again over the past several years, the received wisdom proved to be wrong (May winning a majority in 2017, Cameron not winning a majority in 2015 etc). Politics is so fluid at the moment that anything could happen over the next several years.

    +1

    When it comes to elections, what you have to discern is the question that the voters are answering. In 2015, the question was "Do you want coalition Government with the LibDems to continue?" In 2017 "Do you want the Tories to have a massive majority?"

    In 20??, it will be "Do you want Jeremy Corbyn as PM of a really left-wing Labour Government?" Some on the Left make the mistake of thinking that was the question the voters nearly answered with a "Yes!" in 2017.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited April 2019
    Very good piece Alastair

    I despair at the state of my party and when looking at Corbyn I will never forgive those in my party who open the door for him

    My wife and I received an e mail from Paul Davies, Welsh conservative leader, inviting us to the Welsh spring conference on the 4th May, with the announcement that Boris will be the main speaker.

    My wife said that she could not imagine spending anytime with Boris Johnson to which I endorsed her 100%
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    +2

    Very good piece Alastair. However, the problem I have betting on the outcome of the next GE is that, time and time again over the past several years, the received wisdom proved to be wrong (May winning a majority in 2017, Cameron not winning a majority in 2015 etc). Politics is so fluid at the moment that anything could happen over the next several years.

    +1

    When it comes to elections, what you have to discern is the question that the voters are answering. In 2015, the question was "Do you want coalition Government with the LibDems to continue?" In 2017 "Do you want the Tories to have a massive majority?"

    In 20??, it will be "Do you want Jeremy Corbyn as PM of a really left-wing Labour Government?" Some on the Left make the mistake of thinking that was the question the voters nearly answered with a "Yes!" in 2017.
    Corbyn and Labour maximised their vote at the last election by being the ‘don’t give Theresa May five years to do what she wants on Brexit and everything else with a large majority’ option. This coalesced remainers and left wingers. When people use the 2017 Labour voter as some sort of evidence it does not take into account this point. Obviously the Labour voter from 2017 skewed remain because if they really wanted Brexit above all else they held their nose and voted Tory.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Everything linked to the state gets tested by numbers. Once the pen pushers have a number, they can decide if it's a good or bad number. The trouble is that they mostly use shite numbers and that gives shite answers!

    GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out.

    However, what is the alternative? If you need to make a decision at any level, and you need a decision to be based on firm data, then you need that data. Poor data doesn't mean you should just stop collecting data; it just means you need to improve the data and methods of collection.

    Not making decisions based on data can lead to all sorts of other problems.

    I note on the radio last night that the Labour spokeswoman (I cannot remember her name) said there would still be data collected; it would just be in another form. Sadly she was rather vague in what the 'other form' would be ...
    Before SATS there were other tests. I think I did something called the "London Reading Test" at the end of Primary. The main difference would be OFSTED not using it as a blunt tool to measure overall school quality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Look at all the Tory membership polls, Boris and Raab top them, both hard Brexit leavers with Cleverly now coming up behind. The Tory membership will vote for the hardest Brexiteer in the final two and that will help win back Tory voters lost to the Brexit Party and UKIP.

    In the short term I think the Withdrawal Agreement will probably pass once a Customs Union wins a further series of indicative votes and is added to the Political Declaration. May will then go and there will be a VONC in the Government which will probably win given the DUP will vote against the Government. It is not impossible the DUP could make Corbyn PM without a general election to implement BINO but retain their influence. Corbyn would then be PM propped up by the SNP and LDs and TIG who will force him to a BINO agenda, if he gets in after an election or no election, while freed of all responsibilities the Tories can meanwhile have opposition almost all to themselves with Boris at Westminster level and Ruth Davidson at Holyrood attacking Corbyn and Sturgeon at every level
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Better news for the Canadian Conservatives in Alberta, where they’ve just hammered the NDP:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election

    Not really that surprising, Alberta is the Canadian Texas
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Streeter said:

    A third of the population would not sign up for the euro.

    Currently at about 26% according to Wikipedia, so only a slight exaggeration. Mazin innit.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_and_the_euro?wprov=sfti1
    Yes, I think it’d be between 20-25% were it to come to a vote.
    As opposed to about 40 to 45% who back No Deal in the polls
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880
    ydoethur said:


    Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.

    Not a good idea.

    I suspect your definition of barely literate imbeciles is 'people who disagree with me on some issues'.
  • HYUFD said:

    Look at all the Tory membership polls, Boris and Raab top them, both hard Brexit leavers with Cleverly now coming up behind. The Tory membership will vote for the hardest Brexiteer in the final two and that will help win back Tory voters lost to the Brexit Party and UKIP.

    In the short term I think the Withdrawal Agreement will probably pass once a Customs Union wins a further series of indicative votes and is added to the Political Declaration. May will then go and there will be a VONC in the Government which will probably win given the DUP will vote against the Government. It is not impossible the DUP could make Corbyn PM without a general election to implement BINO but retain their influence. Corbyn would then be PM propped up by the SNP and LDs and TIG who will force him to a BINO agenda, if he gets in after an election or no election, while freed of all responsibilities the Tories can meanwhile have opposition almost all to themselves with Boris at Westminster level and Ruth Davidson at Holyrood attacking Corbyn and Sturgeon at every level

    Politics never works on logic and you make a lot of assumptions in your predictions

    I have no idea how or when this will be resolved and would expect a lot more can kicking. Corbyn will not be propped up by other parties. However, labour under another leader would and indeed labour under another leader could gain a majority
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Everything linked to the state gets tested by numbers. Once the pen pushers have a number, they can decide if it's a good or bad number. The trouble is that they mostly use shite numbers and that gives shite answers!

    GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out.

    However, what is the alternative? If you need to make a decision at any level, and you need a decision to be based on firm data, then you need that data. Poor data doesn't mean you should just stop collecting data; it just means you need to improve the data and methods of collection.

    Not making decisions based on data can lead to all sorts of other problems.

    I note on the radio last night that the Labour spokeswoman (I cannot remember her name) said there would still be data collected; it would just be in another form. Sadly she was rather vague in what the 'other form' would be ...
    Before SATS there were other tests. I think I did something called the "London Reading Test" at the end of Primary. The main difference would be OFSTED not using it as a blunt tool to measure overall school quality.
    Does school quality need measuring? I'd argue yes: to discover which schools need help, in order to focus resources on them, and to discern which schools are doing well and to try to spread best practice.

    Failure to do this might be rather disastrous, as poor schools and teaching will not be detected.

    I understand the reality is more complex: some schools may have factors (e.g. a higher-skilled intake, less children with educational difficulties) than others: but that does not mean that it should not be measured: just that the results need treating with some care.
  • Very good piece Alastair. However, the problem I have betting on the outcome of the next GE is that, time and time again over the past several years, the received wisdom proved to be wrong (May winning a majority in 2017, Cameron not winning a majority in 2015 etc). Politics is so fluid at the moment that anything could happen over the next several years.

    +1

    When it comes to elections, what you have to discern is the question that the voters are answering. In 2015, the question was "Do you want coalition Government with the LibDems to continue?" In 2017 "Do you want the Tories to have a massive majority?"

    In 20??, it will be "Do you want Jeremy Corbyn as PM of a really left-wing Labour Government?" Some on the Left make the mistake of thinking that was the question the voters nearly answered with a "Yes!" in 2017.
    I have to admit that is exactly my thinking re both 2017 and what people will be asking at the next GE which is why, if I was forced to bet, I would actually go for a workable Conservative majority.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    I'm currently on the Eurostar en route to Amsterdam with our beautiful burgundy passports. When I booked this holiday I assumed we'd be travelling to the EU, not within the EU. Naturally I am delighted. The fact that I have the ERG and the other Brextremists to thank for this happy state of affairs is a delicious irony. Mark Francois, Nigel Farage, I salute you and your beautiful French names.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274

    HYUFD said:

    Look at all the Tory membership polls, Boris and Raab top them, both hard Brexit leavers with Cleverly now coming up behind. The Tory membership will vote for the hardest Brexiteer in the final two and that will help win back Tory voters lost to the Brexit Party and UKIP.

    In the short term I think the Withdrawal Agreement will probably pass once a Customs Union wins a further series of indicative votes and is added to the Political Declaration. May will then go and there will be a VONC in the Government which will probably win given the DUP will vote against the Government. It is not impossible the DUP could make Corbyn PM without a general election to implement BINO but retain their influence. Corbyn would then be PM propped up by the SNP and LDs and TIG who will force him to a BINO agenda, if he gets in after an election or no election, while freed of all responsibilities the Tories can meanwhile have opposition almost all to themselves with Boris at Westminster level and Ruth Davidson at Holyrood attacking Corbyn and Sturgeon at every level

    Politics never works on logic and you make a lot of assumptions in your predictions

    I have no idea how or when this will be resolved and would expect a lot more can kicking. Corbyn will not be propped up by other parties. However, labour under another leader would and indeed labour under another leader could gain a majority
    Epic assumptions I would say! FWIW my take is that the DUP would never make Corbyn PM, TIG would not prop up Corbyn and Labour will find a way to oppose the WA.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Would add another factor. Events.
    How would the government, as currently constituted, function in response to an unforeseen crisis? Not well, I would wager, as they seem unable to agree on much.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    May is walking in Wales. She is bound to be cooking up a plan. I wonder what it is.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Penddu said:

    Deuxieme....(in respect to Notre Dame)

    .....and they've just collected $1 billion. You can always find money when you need it
  • Jonathan said:

    May is walking in Wales. She is bound to be cooking up a plan. I wonder what it is.

    Legislation ensuring the automaticity of an Irish unity referendum in the event of a No Deal Brexit.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Jonathan said:

    May is walking in Wales. She is bound to be cooking up a plan. I wonder what it is.

    She's working on her legacy. After considering her culpability in the windrush fiasco she put the rest on hold
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Absorbing and thought-provoking header Mr Meeks.
    Just one thing I want to quibble with atm, namely the term "negative feedback". In its usual context of control systems or electrical circuitry negative feedback is stabilising, but you want to say destabilising, so the correct term is positive feedback.
    Although your incorrect usage is met quite often in casual use of the term nowadays, it still jars.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    I'm currently on the Eurostar en route to Amsterdam with our beautiful burgundy passports. When I booked this holiday I assumed we'd be travelling to the EU, not within the EU. Naturally I am delighted. The fact that I have the ERG and the other Brextremists to thank for this happy state of affairs is a delicious irony. Mark Francois, Nigel Farage, I salute you and your beautiful French names.

    :lol:

    Enjoy!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    geoffw said:

    Absorbing and thought-provoking header Mr Meeks.
    Just one thing I want to quibble with atm, namely the term "negative feedback". In its usual context of control systems or electrical circuitry negative feedback is stabilising, but you want to say destabilising, so the correct term is positive feedback.
    Although your incorrect usage is met quite often in casual use of the term nowadays, it still jars.

    And this is why PB is different from all the others. Well done.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    geoffw said:

    Absorbing and thought-provoking header Mr Meeks.
    Just one thing I want to quibble with atm, namely the term "negative feedback". In its usual context of control systems or electrical circuitry negative feedback is stabilising, but you want to say destabilising, so the correct term is positive feedback.
    Although your incorrect usage is met quite often in casual use of the term nowadays, it still jars.

    Noted for the future! Thanks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Jonathan said:

    May is walking in Wales. She is bound to be cooking up a plan. I wonder what it is.

    Not another one!

    She needs to resign. She is the obstacle now, and for any resolutuon whether car crash Brexit or revoke, she needs to be replaced.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    PeterC said:

    I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.

    Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is walking in Wales. She is bound to be cooking up a plan. I wonder what it is.

    Not another one!

    She needs to resign. She is the obstacle now, and for any resolutuon whether car crash Brexit or revoke, she needs to be replaced.
    If she's the obstacle to a car crash, why do you want her to go?
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    I get the impression even the media is now bored of Brexit, and desperate to talk about anything else for a while. We may get more bread and butter issues like education and health in the headlines over the next few months, which unfortunately is probably going to benefit Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Look at all the Tory membership polls, Boris and Raab top them, both hard Brexit leavers with Cleverly now coming up behind. The Tory membership will vote for the hardest Brexiteer in the final two and that will help win back Tory voters lost to the Brexit Party and UKIP.

    In the short term I think the Withdrawal Agreement will probably pass once a Customs Union wins a further series of indicative votes and is added to the Political Declaration. May will then go and there will be a VONC in the Government which will probably win given the DUP will vote against the Government. It is not impossible the DUP could make Corbyn PM without a general election to implement BINO but retain their influence. Corbyn would then be PM propped up by the SNP and LDs and TIG who will force him to a BINO agenda, if he gets in after an election or no election, while freed of all responsibilities the Tories can meanwhile have opposition almost all to themselves with Boris at Westminster level and Ruth Davidson at Holyrood attacking Corbyn and Sturgeon at every level

    Politics never works on logic and you make a lot of assumptions in your predictions

    I have no idea how or when this will be resolved and would expect a lot more can kicking. Corbyn will not be propped up by other parties. However, labour under another leader would and indeed labour under another leader could gain a majority
    The SNP, Plaid and Greens would prop up Corbyn for SM and Customs Union BINO, the DUP would prefer that to May's Deal.

    The LDs would not prop up the Tories either
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    A pleasure to read your header Mr Meeks. And I can't fault your analysis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    If Labour plus CUK plus LDs is more than Tories plus Brexit Party plus UKIP he might have a point, otherwise not
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited April 2019

    PeterC said:

    I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.

    Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
    More likely most Tories would join the Brexit Party while the minority of Tory Remainers would join CUK
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    For the Burgon case:


    it's
    /ɪts/
    contraction
    pronoun: it's

    it is.
    "it's my fault"
    it has.
    "it's been a hot day"

    it was

    Looks cut and shut in Burgon's favour if Guido's tweet is the main evidence for the claim.
  • Pulpstar said:

    For the Burgon case:


    it's
    /ɪts/
    contraction
    pronoun: it's

    it is.
    "it's my fault"
    it has.
    "it's been a hot day"

    it was

    Looks cut and shut in Burgon's favour if Guido's tweet is the main evidence for the claim.

    https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1118424680711503872?s=21

    My one prediction.

    The lawyers are going to earn a lot of money out of this.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764
    The Conservatives have clearly run out of steam, and ordinarily, would be heading for defeat. But, Labour are just as heavily disliked by the public, and so the result of the next election is unpredictable.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.

    Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
    More likely most Tories would join the Brexit Party while the minority of Tory Remainers would join CUK
    And that is the all important question. Why would anyone vote for the Tory party?

    If you want to leave Farage or UKIP is the direction your vote is heading. And if you don't want to leave who would you vote for.
This discussion has been closed.