Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2020 Democrat contest is likely to go all the way to the c
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2020 Democrat contest is likely to go all the way to the convention
Once upon a time, American party conventions to nominate their presidential candidates were raucous, sometimes violent, often unpredictable and certainly lengthy. The Democrat convention of 1924 set the unhappy record of taking 103 ballots to select a candidate, in a convention that lasted more than a fortnight. The drudgery, sweat and fatigue would prove fruitless: John Davis would go on to lose every state outside the South and be outpolled almost 2:1 by Calvin Coolidge.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
___________________________________________
Like secret policemen building a case for a show trial, today’s activists scour social media for anything that may be twisted to use against their enemies. If the evidence isn’t there, they make it up.
___________________________________________
I'll admit to being slightly confused at this point...
Nick, many of the CUK types and others have been doing this for years with Labour. Why is this suddenly an unacceptable tactic when it is happening to CUK?
You can't go from cheerleading that type of stuff to attack your enemies and act as if people are doing something wrong when they do it back to you.
I'm a strong believer in treating people how they treat you, I like to think others can see the logic in that position as well. There can be exceptions like if a cat or a small child attacked me I wouldn't strike them back. It would be very disrespectful to take that attitude with CUK.
Edit: Probably the most ironic part is I only found this article because it was shared by a racist troll group that 'scour social media for anything that may be twisted to use against their enemies' I think these people actually believe it, they can't be that blind surely...
The locals loss of 500 or so looks rough but not unexpected for a government at such a point in the cycle, but locals and euros being so bad will be tough for them to handle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsi_Gabbard
The simplest explanation would support your contention, in that the likely situation is he had no negative electoral consequences to meeting or wanting to meet anyone back then, and positive electoral consequences to virtue signalling that he does not like Trump.
Certainly that makes more sense than the idea he sincerely believes it ok to meet those others but not Trump.
But man the numbers spent on these primary campaigns let alone the vastness of the amounts for the presidential campaigns is insane. I know it's a big, rich country and the rules allow huge spending, but my God.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48032231
If you look at how 2008 shaped out, of the 8 candidates who made it to Iowa,
#1 and #2 (Biden and Dodd) dropped after Iowa
#3 (Richardson) after NH
#4 (Kucinich) after SC
#5 (Edwards) after FL
...so the only one out of the top two still in the race in Month 2 was #6 Gravel, who was never really in the race in the first place.
I think the lower-tier candidates are all going to blow their budgets on the early races, so if they underperform and they have a hard time raising more, they just won't be able to afford to keep going into March.
Accordingly I think it most likely winnows down to 3 serious candidates by Super Tuesday. Whether that makes a split big enough to deny #1 their 50%+1 is a little bit random, but even if it does there has to be a strong incentive for a the #3 candidate to stitch something up with one of the others before the convention.
Now, if Iowa and NH only gives delegates to three candidates, and Nevada to only two, then - sure - your comparison is fair.
But it's quite possible that Iowa and NH generate five candidates with delegates, and without that much overlap either.
Finally, why would Beto or Harris drop out before their home states?
Merely to f*ck with him.
Be interesting to see which of them Trump insults most often as they compete to oppose him.
But the major reason the economy is so strong is that the government has enacted major fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle.
For this reason, I really hope he wins. Because it's not really very fair to leave someone else with a massive fiscal deficit and a debt-to-gdp at a quarter century high at the end of a decade long economic expansion.
And then there's the black vote that didn't come out for Hillary in 2016....
Michelle Obama with Barack in the wings to stop her doing something stupid would be everything that Hillary with Bill in the shadows was not.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1122028855936425985
I’d be very surprised if there aren’t at least four candidates in genuine contention by Super Tuesday, plus a handful of no hopers who won’t give up.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
2/3 Of those presidents were re elected
Check your next Cabinet minister to resign bets?
Does practice start at 10am?
If, as looks increasingly likely, we end up with a brokered convention, who do we think the “Super Delegates” will favour?
Whoever that is, is the value in the race.
Otherwise, lay this week’s favourites
If one candidate wins all the big states having won Iowa and New Hampshire even with PR they are likely to have won a majority of delegates by the convention, especially as the field narrows as weaker candidates drop out.
Of course winning Iowa alone even by a big blowout margin is not enough if you then lose New Hampshire but if you win Iowa and New Hampshire then you are the de facto nominee in all but name. No candidate Democrat or Republican has failed to win their party's nomination after winning both those states
How do I go about offering a thread header? I assume you have my e-mail address. Don't worry about rejecting it and causing me psychological pain. I'll still sleep at nights.
On paper, Biden should be a massive favourite - leading in the polls before he even announced, and presumably due a bounce from that. He has two problems (neither of which is the touchy-feely stuff, which looks trivial compared with Trump):
1. The progressive left think he doesn't offer a real alternative
2. He feels like old news in a time when "dramatic change" is in demand everywhere.
He could and probably will help with 1 by offering a radical proposal on something, probably health. 2 is harder to tackle, because he is literally old and very familiar, and unlike Sanders his appeal is essentially the Democrat mixture as before.
Note that PB favourite Buttigieg is still performing significantly worse against Trump than others - and it's doubtful if that is still lack of name recognition. I think he lacks a major issue - he's everyone's acceptable alternative, but not a compelling draw. Looks a strong VP candidate to me.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/
Perfectly possible that Sanders wins Iowa with 25% and New Hampshire with 30% (the latter more likely than the former).
Does that make him the de facto nominee ? Almost certainly not.
Agree on Buttigieg, his message is too close to Hillary's in 2016 when Democrats want a more progressive, liberal candidate. Buttigieg or O'Rourke are both strong VP candidates though
I don’t think you can really make that kind of judgment until the debates begin.
VP choice will be a big deal if there is a contested convention.
After Gore beat Bill Bradley in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2000 he won every state thereafter. After Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire in 2004 he won every state thereafter bar North and South Carolina, which John Edwards won, Oklahoma which Wesley Clark won and Howard Dean's home state of Vermont
Yougov and ABC have 39%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
That is worse at this stage of his presidency than Obama, GWB, Clinton, HWB, Ford, Nixon, LBJ and JFK. He equals Reagan and is 1% ahead of Carter. Not great is it? I can't see him doing a Reagan and let others run the presidency for him while he smiles benevolently.
EDIT: And that is in spite of the economy doing well.
If Trump is Carter that favours Sanders then who like Reagan lost the proceeding nomination battle in 1976 to Ford as Sanders lost to Hillary
Although lack of a woman on ticket will be a problem this campaign season for Dems.
https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1122055667307765760?s=21
Plus if Sanders won Iowa and New Hampshire momentum would see him sweep the big states
You last para is too convoluted, reading entrails.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1121920832245313536
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1121921021777534976
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1121921124848349185
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1121921284638674945
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1121921284638674945
Leonard's figures are incredible. He is a vacuum with no profile at all.
' It is a dastardly trap, designed to lock freedom-loving Britain into the European Union’s protectionist customs union: that is the argument against the so-called backstop, cited by hardline Brexit advocates as the main reason why they have thrice voted down Theresa May’s deal with the European Union.
But as the dust settles after months of chaos in Westminster, suspicions are growing on the other side of the Channel that the backstop could in fact be the very opposite: a brilliant deception device constructed by crack UK negotiators, which would allow a more reckless British prime minister to undermine the EU’s green and social standards while still keeping access to the European single market. '
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/26/irish-backstop-could-undermine-eu-standards-report-says
Apart from Tulsi Gabbard.
'I think Yes have serious problems, Brexit is more of a threat to them than the opposite.'
You’re really not getting this.
No candidate has won Iowa and New Hampshire and ever failed to win their party's nomination.
If you win both states you all win ALL the big states. End of conversation
Meanwhile my pick has thus far failed to break through. She is referred to in a way that is po-faced and respectful rather than with excitement and affection. The worst sign of all is that she is still called 'Harris' by all and sundry despite being blessed with the very catchy first name of Kamala.
This even runs to on here, I'm disappointed to see. Harris this, Harris that, Harris the other. It's not good enough. So a heartfelt plea from me this morning. Can we move up a gear please on KH? On KAMALA. Let's get this baby rolling!
** The EU wouldn't move on the backstop, they couldn't bring down May and crash-out Brexit didn't happen in March.
Don’t know about Kamala (there, I said it for you). She has the base (money and support) and the political skills to be a contender, but she needs to break out of the pack by the summer.