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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there was a betting market on the first Tory MP defecting to the Brexit Party my money would be on Steve Baker

Hey @LadPolitics can you put up a market on who will be the 1st Tory MP to defect to the Brexit Party? Want to back Steve Baker, story 2day

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Foxy

First

Like Liverpool.. .

paulyork64

if you are asking a bookie to put up a market the last thing I think you should do is tell them the selection you are interested in backing. unless this a just a red herring and you want to back someone else at, hopefully, at better price.

Big_G_NorthWales

Baker going would make my day

Mysticrose

Not so sure Foxy. Not so sure. Huge fortnight ahead and they have double the stress.

Really interesting tip about Steve Baker. That makes a lot of sense. He's clearly deeply unhappy. I'm not sure it will make a lot of difference 'out there.' Few of the ERG are known to the general public. Boris is but he's a gadfly and you never know where he's going to turn up next, nor in whose bed.

isam

paulyork64 said:

if you are asking a bookie to put up a market the last thing I think you should do is tell them the selection you are interested in backing. unless this a just a red herring and you want to back someone else at, hopefully, at better price.

Normally you would ask for prices on several runners, so the one you wanted to back wasn't obvious

Gordon Brown made a similar error when selling our gold didn't he?

TudorRose

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Baker going would make my day

A new definition for a 'Baker Day'?

Theuniondivvie

Bloody right they are..

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1122483910536044545

TheScreamingEagles

paulyork64 said:

if you are asking a bookie to put up a market the last thing I think you should do is tell them the selection you are interested in backing. unless this a just a red herring and you want to back someone else at, hopefully, at better price.

Shadsy isn't that stupid.

Astute punters know that.

isam

https://twitter.com/douglaskmurray/status/1122486984239394816?s=21

kyf_100

Surely the Carswell/Reckless precedent has been superceded by the TIG/CUK precedent on calling by elections?

Foxy

Mysticrose said:

Not so sure Foxy. Not so sure. Huge fortnight ahead and they have double the stress.

Really interesting tip about Steve Baker. That makes a lot of sense. He's clearly deeply unhappy. I'm not sure it will make a lot of difference 'out there.' Few of the ERG are known to the general public. Boris is but he's a gadfly and you never know where he's going to turn up next, nor in whose bed.

Man City have to play us next week, and Rogers has unfinished business

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

paulyork64 said:

if you are asking a bookie to put up a market the last thing I think you should do is tell them the selection you are interested in backing. unless this a just a red herring and you want to back someone else at, hopefully, at better price.

Shadsy isn't that stupid.

Astute punters know that.

What do you mean he isn’t that stupid? Not stupid enough to do what?

Big_G_NorthWales

Foxy said:

Mysticrose said:

Not so sure Foxy. Not so sure. Huge fortnight ahead and they have double the stress.

Really interesting tip about Steve Baker. That makes a lot of sense. He's clearly deeply unhappy. I'm not sure it will make a lot of difference 'out there.' Few of the ERG are known to the general public. Boris is but he's a gadfly and you never know where he's going to turn up next, nor in whose bed.

Man City have to play us next week, and Rogers has unfinished business

City poor so far today

AndyJS

kyf_100 said:

Surely the Carswell/Reckless precedent has been superceded by the TIG/CUK precedent on calling by elections?

There isn't a precedent. It's simply the decision of the individual MP.

kinabalu

Every Conservative MP should ask themselves the following question. Which is more important to me, wazzing on the poor and dispossessed or leaving the European Union in chaotic fashion without a Withdrawal Agreement?

If the honest answer to this is the latter then there is only one honourable course of action - defect to the Brexit Party.

Baker, I sense, IS a man of honour - very much so - and therefore I agree with the header that he will probably be the first to go.

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

paulyork64 said:

if you are asking a bookie to put up a market the last thing I think you should do is tell them the selection you are interested in backing. unless this a just a red herring and you want to back someone else at, hopefully, at better price.

Shadsy isn't that stupid.

Astute punters know that.

What do you mean he isn’t that stupid? Not stupid enough to do what?

To fall for a red herring.

Given all the facts currently publicly available and without my prompting I'd expect him to make Baker the favourite in this market.

Big_G_NorthWales

kinabalu said:

Every Conservative MP should ask themselves the following question. Which is more important to me, wazzing on the poor and dispossessed or leaving the European Union in chaotic fashion without a Withdrawal Agreement?

If the honest answer to this is the latter then there is only one honourable course of action - defect to the Brexit Party.

Baker, I sense, IS a man of honour - very much so - and therefore I agree with the header that he will probably be the first to go.

Hope so

brokenwheel

I can’t see it, people forget that one of the big reasons for Carswell and Reckless jumping ship was they held seats in strongly Leave areas with a demographic most likely to vote for a Leave-backing party. They were heavily at risk from UKIP, Wycombe is not such a place.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

paulyork64 said:

if you are asking a bookie to put up a market the last thing I think you should do is tell them the selection you are interested in backing. unless this a just a red herring and you want to back someone else at, hopefully, at better price.

Shadsy isn't that stupid.

Astute punters know that.

What do you mean he isn’t that stupid? Not stupid enough to do what?

To fall for a red herring.

Given all the facts currently available and without my prompting I'd expect him to make Baker the favourite in this market.

Oh I see. Well yes I don’t that trick could work in fixed odds betting really, but it’s a pretty bad idea to ask for a special market to be made and tell the bookie which runner you want to back before you’ve seen the odds.

When I worked at a spread betting company we used to ask the clients not to tell us what what they wanted to do before they’d got the price.

noneoftheabove

To me, it seems much more likely it would be a small group going together rather than an individual who would defect first.

kyf_100

AndyJS said:

kyf_100 said:

Surely the Carswell/Reckless precedent has been superceded by the TIG/CUK precedent on calling by elections?

There isn't a precedent. It's simply the decision of the individual MP.

My point was simply that others on the other side have already declined to "put it to the people" when it comes to their jobs, making it hard for remainers to accuse potential defectors to the Nige Party of behaving dishonourably if they don't call by elections when they do.

dixiedean

If the Brexit Party is an existential threat to the Tory Party, maybe the best way to deal with it could be a GE? It would allow them to take on Farage before an organisational structure could be created.
Of course they'd lose, but it could solidify the Tories as the opposition.
What do they fear most? Corbyn in power, probably as a minority PM? Or three more years of being attacked and weakened on both flanks?

nichomar

Are the EU votes going to be verified on the thursday or at the count on Sunday

noneoftheabove

kyf_100 said:

AndyJS said:

kyf_100 said:

Surely the Carswell/Reckless precedent has been superceded by the TIG/CUK precedent on calling by elections?

There isn't a precedent. It's simply the decision of the individual MP.

My point was simply that others on the other side have already declined to "put it to the people" when it comes to their jobs, making it hard for remainers to accuse potential defectors to the Nige Party of behaving dishonourably if they don't call by elections when they do.

The people who would most complain about a lack of by election will be party loyalists rather than those with a remain view. We elect an individual in our system, not a guaranteed bloc vote to each party.

dixiedean

PS. LOL at "Nigel is very smug at the moment."
How does one possibly tell? He is permanently set at 11 on the smug-o-meter.

brendan16

kinabalu said:

Every Conservative MP should ask themselves the following question. Which is more important to me, wazzing on the poor and dispossessed or leaving the European Union in chaotic fashion without a Withdrawal Agreement?

If the honest answer to this is the latter then there is only one honourable course of action - defect to the Brexit Party.

Baker, I sense, IS a man of honour - very much so - and therefore I agree with the header that he will probably be the first to go.

Some might argue that the Tories have been wazzing on the poor and dispossessed since 2010 - while making the wealthy even wealthier. And that is part of why we got Brexit in the first place.

If you are poor and dispossessed you are more likely perhaps to think you have nothing to lose anyway as you have nothing.

isam

dixiedean said:

PS. LOL at "Nigel is very smug at the moment."
How does one possibly tell? He is permanently set at 11 on the smug-o-meter.

Be fair, in that photo when he nearly died in a plane crash that lefties use to take the piss out of him, he doesn’t look that smug

Alanbrooke

I see TSE Tory Boy has learnt little from the last decade

Telling people to fk and join UKIP\Brexit and then panicking when they do hasnt been a great success for the Conservatives.

maybe they could try having some broad based polcies relevant to all parts of the country for a change, might work.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

I see TSE Tory Boy has learnt little from the last decade

Telling people to fk and join UKIP\Brexit and then panicking when they do hasnt been a great success for the Conservatives.

maybe they could try having some broad based polcies relevant to all parts of the country for a change, might work.

I'm telling no one to fuck off and join the Brexit party.

viewcode

nichomar said:

Are the EU votes going to be verified on the thursday or at the count on Sunday

"Verified"? What do you think the Returning Officer does?

Theuniondivvie

isam said:

dixiedean said:

PS. LOL at "Nigel is very smug at the moment."
How does one possibly tell? He is permanently set at 11 on the smug-o-meter.

Be fair, in that photo when he nearly died in a plane crash that lefties use to take the piss out of him, he doesn’t look that smug

No one can look smug with pants full of poop. Well, Roger Federer perhaps.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: surprised by the biggest crash being a reversing incident.

noneoftheabove

Alanbrooke said:

I see TSE Tory Boy has learnt little from the last decade

Telling people to fk and join UKIP\Brexit and then panicking when they do hasnt been a great success for the Conservatives.

maybe they could try having some broad based polcies relevant to all parts of the country for a change, might work.

Perhaps it would be easier to have some broad based policies relevant to the country without the ERG forcing the agenda onto the relationship between UK and EU?

GIN1138

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

kyf_100

dixiedean said:

If the Brexit Party is an existential threat to the Tory Party, maybe the best way to deal with it could be a GE? It would allow them to take on Farage before an organisational structure could be created.
Of course they'd lose, but it could solidify the Tories as the opposition.
What do they fear most? Corbyn in power, probably as a minority PM? Or three more years of being attacked and weakened on both flanks?

It would be interesting simply to see what the Brexit Party would put in its manifesto if a GE was called. What is party policy? Who decides? Is it entirely the Nige Show or will others have a say? Where will they stand on, say, the NHS? I'm willing to bet "we spend 125bn on the NHS each year, let's switch to a system of private insurance instead" isn't a vote winner...

The Brexit Party are riding high right now because they can afford to be a single issue party going into the Euros. In a GE, less so.

Alanbrooke

noneoftheabove said:

Alanbrooke said:

I see TSE Tory Boy has learnt little from the last decade

Telling people to fk and join UKIP\Brexit and then panicking when they do hasnt been a great success for the Conservatives.

maybe they could try having some broad based polcies relevant to all parts of the country for a change, might work.

Perhaps it would be easier to have some broad based policies relevant to the country without the ERG forcing the agenda onto the relationship between UK and EU?

last time I looked it was Cameron who called the referendum

dixiedean

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

If the Brexit Party is an existential threat to the Tory Party, maybe the best way to deal with it could be a GE? It would allow them to take on Farage before an organisational structure could be created.
Of course they'd lose, but it could solidify the Tories as the opposition.
What do they fear most? Corbyn in power, probably as a minority PM? Or three more years of being attacked and weakened on both flanks?

It would be interesting simply to see what the Brexit Party would put in its manifesto if a GE was called. What is party policy? Who decides? Is it entirely the Nige Show or will others have a say? Where will they stand on, say, the NHS? I'm willing to bet "we spend 125bn on the NHS each year, let's switch to a system of private insurance instead" isn't a vote winner...

The Brexit Party are riding high right now because they can afford to be a single issue party going into the Euros. In a GE, less so.

Which is why it might be a good tactic to strangle them at birth. Agree with Labour, pass the WA subject to referendum and call a GE same day. Force Farage off his single issue, and get him to outline some of his other views.
But, hang on, this is master strategist May we are talking about...

kinabalu

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Hope so

Yes, you must be sick and tired of the guy. The Labour equivalent would have been Chris Leslie. Relief all round when he got tempted by the fruit of another.

Sean_F

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

Sean_F

Would Nigel Farage welcome a potential rival, and would an MP tolerate being his subordinate?

Alanbrooke

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

This could be a core vote special. fringe parties arent fielding candidates in any great numbers and all the parties are pissing off the electorate

Sean_F

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

This could be a core vote special. fringe parties arent fielding candidates in any great numbers and all the parties are pissing off the electorate

The Lib Dems are polling at 1989-90 levels, Labour at 1982-83 levels, and the Conservatives at 1993-96 levels. I don't think we've seen anything like this before. Even in 2013-14, the Conservative and Labour vote shares were a bit higher than they are now.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

I see TSE Tory Boy has learnt little from the last decade

Telling people to fk and join UKIP\Brexit and then panicking when they do hasnt been a great success for the Conservatives.

maybe they could try having some broad based polcies relevant to all parts of the country for a change, might work.

I'm telling no one to fuck off and join the Brexit party.

What not even hardcore leavers who are massive Radiohead fans, love pineapple on their pizzas and insist that Die Hard is a Christmas movie?

kinabalu

brendan16 said:

Some might argue that the Tories have been wazzing on the poor and dispossessed since 2010 - while making the wealthy even wealthier. And that is part of why we got Brexit in the first place.

If you are poor and dispossessed you are more likely perhaps to think you have nothing to lose anyway as you have nothing.

I do have time for that narrative. Unfortunately it is far from clear that the spiritual leaders of Brexit are motivated by a desire to devolve wealth & opportunity away from the affluent classes in London and the South East.

It seems to be all about 'identity' in various guises.

Or for some, about their own career prospects.

nichomar

viewcode said:

nichomar said:

Are the EU votes going to be verified on the thursday or at the count on Sunday

"Verified"? What do you think the Returning Officer does?

Before any count begins the totals in the box are checked to see if they march the number of ballot papers issued. They are counted face down. When the elections coincided with locals they had to separate them first. The turn out is then published, the ballot papers returned to the box and sealed and locked away until Sunday

Alanbrooke

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

This could be a core vote special. fringe parties arent fielding candidates in any great numbers and all the parties are pissing off the electorate

The Lib Dems are polling at 1989-90 levels, Labour at 1982-83 levels, and the Conservatives at 1993-96 levels. I don't think we've seen anything like this before. Even in 2013-14, the Conservative and Labour vote shares were a bit higher than they are now.

I feel sorry for the local councillors who generally do a good job, theyve been let down by the idiots at national level. Im afraid thats the consequence of having an overcentralised system.

isam

Amazing scenes at Elland Rd

https://twitter.com/socceram/status/1122486526473064450?s=21

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

I see TSE Tory Boy has learnt little from the last decade

Telling people to fk and join UKIP\Brexit and then panicking when they do hasnt been a great success for the Conservatives.

maybe they could try having some broad based polcies relevant to all parts of the country for a change, might work.

I'm telling no one to fuck off and join the Brexit party.

What not even hardcore leavers who are massive Radiohead fans, love pineapple on their pizzas and insist that Die Hard is a Christmas movie?

Die Hard is more of a Harry Potter movie than a Christmas movie.

Think about it, he sneaks about at night hiding from Alan Rickman.

isam

isam said:

Amazing scenes at Elland Rd

https://twitter.com/socceram/status/1122486526473064450?s=21

https://twitter.com/socceram/status/1122487202938855425?s=21

Recidivist

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

This could be a core vote special. fringe parties arent fielding candidates in any great numbers and all the parties are pissing off the electorate

The only evidence of any campaigning I've seen is a few posts on here and a large Tory poster on a gate to a field. (The Conservatives do well in fields in this rural part of the South East.) If nobody is getting the vote out I wonder how many will show up?

viewcode

nichomar said:

viewcode said:

nichomar said:

Are the EU votes going to be verified on the thursday or at the count on Sunday

"Verified"? What do you think the Returning Officer does?

Before any count begins the totals in the box are checked to see if they march the number of ballot papers issued. They are counted face down. When the elections coincided with locals they had to separate them first. The turn out is then published, the ballot papers returned to the box and sealed and locked away until Sunday

Ah, I see. Useful information, thank you.

Recidivist

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

This could be a core vote special. fringe parties arent fielding candidates in any great numbers and all the parties are pissing off the electorate

The Lib Dems are polling at 1989-90 levels, Labour at 1982-83 levels, and the Conservatives at 1993-96 levels. I don't think we've seen anything like this before. Even in 2013-14, the Conservative and Labour vote shares were a bit higher than they are now.

I feel sorry for the local councillors who generally do a good job, theyve been let down by the idiots at national level. Im afraid thats the consequence of having an overcentralised system.

That is true enough.

Alanbrooke

Recidivist said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

This could be a core vote special. fringe parties arent fielding candidates in any great numbers and all the parties are pissing off the electorate

The only evidence of any campaigning I've seen is a few posts on here and a large Tory poster on a gate to a field. (The Conservatives do well in fields in this rural part of the South East.) If nobody is getting the vote out I wonder how many will show up?

normally in locals we get nothing in my village, this year the conservatives did a leaflet drop, last time they did that was before the Blair tsunami. Theyre worried.

Morris_Dancer

F1: earlier than advertised, the post-race ramble:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2019.html

stodge

Sean_F said:

The Lib Dems are polling at 1989-90 levels, Labour at 1982-83 levels, and the Conservatives at 1993-96 levels. I don't think we've seen anything like this before. Even in 2013-14, the Conservative and Labour vote shares were a bit higher than they are now.

I think some of the organised groups of Independents are going to do extremely well. The group in Guildford is one to watch.

brendan16

kinabalu said:

brendan16 said:

Some might argue that the Tories have been wazzing on the poor and dispossessed since 2010 - while making the wealthy even wealthier. And that is part of why we got Brexit in the first place.

If you are poor and dispossessed you are more likely perhaps to think you have nothing to lose anyway as you have nothing.

I do have time for that narrative. Unfortunately it is far from clear that the spiritual leaders of Brexit are motivated by a desire to devolve wealth & opportunity away from the affluent classes in London and the South East.

It seems to be all about 'identity' in various guises.

Or for some, about their own career prospects.

Agreed - but its linked to pressures on jobs and wages and lack of security in both, a lack of decent affordable housing for you or your kids or grandkids, lack of security due to rising crime and a perceived lack of police, stretched public services, insecurity due to renting and the worry all the time of being possibly 8 weeks from being chucked out on the street by your landlord, lack of school places, busy roads leading to long commuting times, crowded or indeed no public transport, 3 week waits to see a GP if its not 'urgent' etc etc

Not something which necessarily bothers the well off who can go private - but a function of a rapidly rising population and a failure to deliver the infrastructure needed as a result.

GDP really doesn't capture all of this - you can be wealthier in theory but much poorer in reality e.g. due to being priced out of buying a home. You now need to earn £100k a year to buy a house in Dagenham if starting out without a massive deposit - 20 years ago someone on minimum wage could have bought there.

You can call it identity - or you can call it a sense of uncertainty, overcrowding and general stress if you have been on the wrong side of the last decade.

FrancisUrquhart

isam said:

isam said:

Amazing scenes at Elland Rd

https://twitter.com/socceram/status/1122486526473064450?s=21

https://twitter.com/socceram/status/1122487202938855425?s=21

Most disappointing what has become of Leeds...only one of them, Pontus Jansson, willing to stand up for proper Leeds traditions. Even the manager has gone soft.

matt

Sean_F said:

Would Nigel Farage welcome a potential rival, and would an MP tolerate being his subordinate?

As the ERG hardcore types clearly believe that they are the cleverest and most charismatic people in the room under any circumstances, it seems unlikely.

kle4

isam said:

Amazing scenes at Elland Rd

https://twitter.com/socceram/status/1122486526473064450?s=21

Doesn't seem controversial to me in the slightest, the commentator is a twat for calling it disgusting, I think it was a mistake to give in to thuggish behaviour in response.

ETA: Goddamn city, will they ever drop points again?

matt

Recidivist said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

This could be a core vote special. fringe parties arent fielding candidates in any great numbers and all the parties are pissing off the electorate

The only evidence of any campaigning I've seen is a few posts on here and a large Tory poster on a gate to a field. (The Conservatives do well in fields in this rural part of the South East.) If nobody is getting the vote out I wonder how many will show up?

I saw a LD diamond shape today. It didn’t say “Winning here”, it was “Trying hard” or something similar. Honest, I suppose, although I’m unconvinced by the effort level. Nothing from Labour, who, if posters h3re are to be believed, are everywhere. This seat is, at a national level, one they would think they could win.

Sean_F

stodge said:

Sean_F said:

The Lib Dems are polling at 1989-90 levels, Labour at 1982-83 levels, and the Conservatives at 1993-96 levels. I don't think we've seen anything like this before. Even in 2013-14, the Conservative and Labour vote shares were a bit higher than they are now.

I think some of the organised groups of Independents are going to do extremely well. The group in Guildford is one to watch.

I'd also expect to see that.

Sean_F

matt said:

Sean_F said:

Would Nigel Farage welcome a potential rival, and would an MP tolerate being his subordinate?

As the ERG hardcore types clearly believe that they are the cleverest and most charismatic people in the room under any circumstances, it seems unlikely.

I think it would be very funny if someone like Mark Francois, or Chris Chope, announced that he was defecting to the Brexit Party, only for Farage to tell him that he was not welcome.

Sean_F

matt said:

Recidivist said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Tories facing local elections "wipeout"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/28/tories-braced-local-election-wipeout-deputy-chairman-warns-mounting/

And that's just the starter before the main course of the EU elections.

I expect the party would be delighted to keep losses to 400 seats. They are defending 4,300.

I'd expect a net loss of about 750. The Conservatives are polling as badly as in 1993-96, but the Labour and Lib Dems' ratings are among their worst ever.

This could be a core vote special. fringe parties arent fielding candidates in any great numbers and all the parties are pissing off the electorate

The only evidence of any campaigning I've seen is a few posts on here and a large Tory poster on a gate to a field. (The Conservatives do well in fields in this rural part of the South East.) If nobody is getting the vote out I wonder how many will show up?

I saw a LD diamond shape today. It didn’t say “Winning here”, it was “Trying hard” or something similar. Honest, I suppose, although I’m unconvinced by the effort level. Nothing from Labour, who, if posters h3re are to be believed, are everywhere. This seat is, at a national level, one they would think they could win.

I've received one Labour, and one Conservative, leaflet, and I've seen a couple of Lib Dem posters near St. Albans.

Recidivist

Sean_F said:

matt said:

Sean_F said:

Would Nigel Farage welcome a potential rival, and would an MP tolerate being his subordinate?

As the ERG hardcore types clearly believe that they are the cleverest and most charismatic people in the room under any circumstances, it seems unlikely.

I think it would be very funny if someone like Mark Francois, or Chris Chope, announced that he was defecting to the Brexit Party, only for Farage to tell him that he was not welcome.

That would be great. Especially if the Tories wouldn't have them back either.

"Hi George, I know we haven't spoken much before, but we were wondering if you might be getting Respect going again?"

AmpfieldAndy

Not an admirer of Farage myself but I do like Steve Baker so no matter how much Baker wants Brexit, I hope for his sake and that of the Tories he doesn’t. Baker should look at how Farage turned on Carswell who was a very decent MP when Carswell refused to be a simple lackey for Farage. It won’t be long before Farage turns on Widdecombe.

If the Tories have got any sense, which is a big IF currently, they’ll ditch May before she does any more damage. She is playing Russian roulette with both the country and her party over getting her deal through.

Mysticrose

Leeds United.

Dirty side
Dirty fans
Dirty club

Always have been. It's systemic. Like sewage.

Stark_Dawning

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

twistedfirestopper3

isam said:

Amazing scenes at Elland Rd

https://twitter.com/socceram/status/1122486526473064450?s=21

I love how players end up rolling on the floor clutching their faces. Quality acting. The ref should have sent the whole lot of them off.

Scott_P

Stark_Dawning said:

Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

That sums up the ERG pretty well

TheScreamingEagles

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

I'll never forget Mark Reckless.

I've never celebrated quite so exuberantly a constituency result like I did with Rochester & Strood in 2015.

kle4

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

Not sure Farage even wants that many defections - he gets to hugely influence the party of government/main party of opposition depending on circumstance, as dozens of its MPs agree with him and that party has to struggle with that. Sure actual defections would cause trouble, but there's always the chance the Tories recover the seats and Brexit Party goes nowhere, and the influence over the Tories is lost as the hard men like Baker are gone.

kle4

Only saw a few UKIP signs and no one else when I was up around Redcar, but apparently that was because the candidate lived nearby.

kle4

Is it worse when CIty struggle for the win but get it anyway, than if they just walked it? Because of the hope?

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

Is it worse when CIty struggle for the win but get it anyway, than if they just walked it? Because of the hope?

Ya.

nichomar

nichomar said:

viewcode said:

nichomar said:

Are the EU votes going to be verified on the thursday or at the count on Sunday

"Verified"? What do you think the Returning Officer does?

Before any count begins the totals in the box are checked to see if they march the number of ballot papers issued. They are counted face down. When the elections coincided with locals they had to separate them first. The turn out is then published, the ballot papers returned to the box and sealed and locked away until Sunday

Have an answer to my own question I think. Verification will start Sunday late afternoon and counting timed to start declaring after 10. Any one out there going as a counting agent?

AmpfieldAndy

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

So far the only 3 snowflakes to have defected are all Remainers - Soubry, Wollaston and Allen. Their political careers will be over when the next election takes place. You need to park your vitriol,and look at what’s actually happening.

Sean_F

Recidivist said:

Sean_F said:

matt said:

Sean_F said:

Would Nigel Farage welcome a potential rival, and would an MP tolerate being his subordinate?

As the ERG hardcore types clearly believe that they are the cleverest and most charismatic people in the room under any circumstances, it seems unlikely.

I think it would be very funny if someone like Mark Francois, or Chris Chope, announced that he was defecting to the Brexit Party, only for Farage to tell him that he was not welcome.

That would be great. Especially if the Tories wouldn't have them back either.

"Hi George, I know we haven't spoken much before, but we were wondering if you might be getting Respect going again?"

A decade ago, I did a post about a councillor who tried to defect from the Conservatives to the BNP - only for the BNP to turn him down. He had pimped out his mentally ill wife over the internet.

AmpfieldAndy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

I'll never forget Mark Reckless.

I've never celebrated quite so exuberantly a constituency result like I did with Rochester & Strood in 2015.

You can do it again when Soubry loses Broxstowe at the next election.

kle4

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

I'll never forget Mark Reckless.

I've never celebrated quite so exuberantly a constituency result like I did with Rochester & Strood in 2015.

You can do it again when Soubry loses Broxstowe at the next election.

Probably won't provoke as many celebrations, not least as dozens of other Tories lose their seats and Corbyn becomes PM, so minor victories won't feel as grand.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1122513413219995648

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1122513413219995648

Don't leaders always get standing ovations at conferences and the like, by diktat? It probably undermines the earned ovation worthy moments.

AmpfieldAndy

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

I'll never forget Mark Reckless.

I've never celebrated quite so exuberantly a constituency result like I did with Rochester & Strood in 2015.

You can do it again when Soubry loses Broxstowe at the next election.

Probably won't provoke as many celebrations, not least as dozens of other Tories lose their seats and Corbyn becomes PM, so minor victories won't feel as grand.

Depends when the next election is and who replaces May. If the next election is this year, sure, but maybe, maybe not as time elapses. I’ll happily celebrate all 3 of them losing their seats.

brendan16

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

Not sure Farage even wants that many defections - he gets to hugely influence the party of government/main party of opposition depending on circumstance, as dozens of its MPs agree with him and that party has to struggle with that. Sure actual defections would cause trouble, but there's always the chance the Tories recover the seats and Brexit Party goes nowhere, and the influence over the Tories is lost as the hard men like Baker are gone.

I think Farage will have his hands full keeping Claire Fox and Ann Widdecombe in check and on message - as they are both certain to get elected as MEPs as they are top of the list so won't be going away and are forthright in their views. The ERG should be no bother by comparison!

Baker represents a marginal seat - many of the other ERGers represent very safe pro leave seats. Why would Francois for example want to defect when he has a 24,000 majority and the majority of his south west Essex constituents back his position on the EU 100%. The Brexit party wouldn't run candidates against ERG members anyway in reality - they would focus on the other 250 or so Tory MPs who backed 'the treaty'..

Stark_Dawning

AmpfieldAndy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

So far the only 3 snowflakes to have defected are all Remainers - Soubry, Wollaston and Allen. Their political careers will be over when the next election takes place. You need to park your vitriol,and look at what’s actually happening.

ChUK seems fairly pluralistic to me. It may fail politically but hey ho. The Brexit Party is and will remain entirely in Farage's iron grip. Join it and you must be both his conduit and his slave. You would doubtless enjoy such a role; the macho men of the ERG would never be able to stick it.

kle4

AmpfieldAndy said:

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

I'll never forget Mark Reckless.

I've never celebrated quite so exuberantly a constituency result like I did with Rochester & Strood in 2015.

You can do it again when Soubry loses Broxstowe at the next election.

Probably won't provoke as many celebrations, not least as dozens of other Tories lose their seats and Corbyn becomes PM, so minor victories won't feel as grand.

Depends when the next election is and who replaces May. If the next election is this year, sure, but maybe, maybe not as time elapses. I’ll happily celebrate all 3 of them losing their seats.

I don't see how a very early election is avoided. Pass a deal and maybe enough Indys hold off on backing a no confidence vote to allow legislation to pass, but one then would as the DUP would back it for starters (this presumes a deal sans backstop cannot be obtained). Back no deal and several more Tories probably defect and whatever their wish not to lose their seats I don't see how most Indys and the Tiggers do not back a no confidence vote too. A referendum might avoid the need for one in the short term, but we could end up with both.

The Tories are screwed in the short term and need a new leader to have as much time as possible to recover things for them, but I don't see circumstances permitting that.

AmpfieldAndy

Stark_Dawning said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

So far the only 3 snowflakes to have defected are all Remainers - Soubry, Wollaston and Allen. Their political careers will be over when the next election takes place. You need to park your vitriol,and look at what’s actually happening.

ChUK seems fairly pluralistic to me. It may fail politically but hey ho. The Brexit Party is and will remain entirely in Farage's iron grip. Join it and you must be both his conduit and his slave. You would doubtless enjoy such a role; the macho men of the ERG would never be able to stick it.

Change U.K. seems the exact opposite to me - reversionar, high tax, high spend - and for political failures. I happen to agree with you about the Brexit Party which has no appeal to me - sorry ! I don’t see too many macho men in the ERG - just a mixed group who’ve not done the hard work to define what sort of Leave they want but are savvy enough to recognise that neither EU membership, which has been rejected at the ballot box, nor May’s Brino does anything worthwhile.

kle4

AmpfieldAndy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

So far the only 3 snowflakes to have defected are all Remainers - Soubry, Wollaston and Allen. Their political careers will be over when the next election takes place. You need to park your vitriol,and look at what’s actually happening.

ChUK seems fairly pluralistic to me. It may fail politically but hey ho. The Brexit Party is and will remain entirely in Farage's iron grip. Join it and you must be both his conduit and his slave. You would doubtless enjoy such a role; the macho men of the ERG would never be able to stick it.

Change U.K. seems the exact opposite to me - reversionar, high tax, high spend - and for political failures. I happen to agree with you about the Brexit Party which has no appeal to me - sorry ! I don’t see too many macho men in the ERG - just a mixed group who’ve not done the hard work to define what sort of Leave they want but are savvy enough to recognise that neither EU membership, which has been rejected at the ballot box, nor May’s Brino does anything worthwhile.

Boris, JRM and most of the ERG disagree that May's deal does nothing worthwhile. They eventually backed it because it does do something worthwhile, however small.

kinabalu

brendan16 said:

Agreed - but its linked to pressures on jobs and wages and lack of security in both, a lack of decent affordable housing for you or your kids or grandkids, lack of security due to rising crime and a perceived lack of police, stretched public services, insecurity due to renting and the worry all the time of being possibly 8 weeks from being chucked out on the street by your landlord, lack of school places, busy roads leading to long commuting times, crowded or indeed no public transport, 3 week waits to see a GP if its not 'urgent' etc etc

Not something which necessarily bothers the well off who can go private - but a function of a rapidly rising population and a failure to deliver the infrastructure needed as a result.

GDP really doesn't capture all of this - you can be wealthier in theory but much poorer in reality e.g. due to being priced out of buying a home. You now need to earn £100k a year to buy a house in Dagenham if starting out without a massive deposit - 20 years ago someone on minimum wage could have bought there.

You can call it identity - or you can call it a sense of uncertainty, overcrowding and general stress if you have been on the wrong side of the last decade.

Those are all important issues but are not really examples of what I meant by matters of 'identity'. If you sit down for a deep & meaningful with the likes of John Redwood you will find that the things you are highlighting are not on the radar. The talk will be exclusively along the lines of what a scandal it is that 'we' are not able to govern 'ourselves' without undue interference from 'them'. WE must Take Back Control from THEM. This is what I mean by Brexit being an Identity Project as far as its leaders are concerned.

Regarding our 'poor and dispossessed' with their real and justified grievances let me put it this way. Will acute relative poverty be significantly more tolerable if they can have complete confidence that it is being inflicted upon them by Jacob Rees Mogg rather than Jean Claude Juncker? Because Rees Mogg is British? He's one of them?

I don't think so. It's a con.

justin124

brendan16 said:

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

Not sure Farage even wants that many defections - he gets to hugely influence the party of government/main party of opposition depending on circumstance, as dozens of its MPs agree with him and that party has to struggle with that. Sure actual defections would cause trouble, but there's always the chance the Tories recover the seats and Brexit Party goes nowhere, and the influence over the Tories is lost as the hard men like Baker are gone.

I think Farage will have his hands full keeping Claire Fox and Ann Widdecombe in check and on message - as they are both certain to get elected as MEPs as they are top of the list so won't be going away and are forthright in their views. The ERG should be no bother by comparison!

Baker represents a marginal seat - many of the other ERGers represent very safe pro leave seats. Why would Francois for example want to defect when he has a 24,000 majority and the majority of his south west Essex constituents back his position on the EU 100%. The Brexit party wouldn't run candidates against ERG members anyway in reality - they would focus on the other 250 or so Tory MPs who backed 'the treaty'..

I would not describe Wycombe as a marginal seat - majority 6,500 and Tory held since 1950.

Theuniondivvie

Sean_F said:

Recidivist said:

Sean_F said:

matt said:

Sean_F said:

Would Nigel Farage welcome a potential rival, and would an MP tolerate being his subordinate?

As the ERG hardcore types clearly believe that they are the cleverest and most charismatic people in the room under any circumstances, it seems unlikely.

I think it would be very funny if someone like Mark Francois, or Chris Chope, announced that he was defecting to the Brexit Party, only for Farage to tell him that he was not welcome.

That would be great. Especially if the Tories wouldn't have them back either.

"Hi George, I know we haven't spoken much before, but we were wondering if you might be getting Respect going again?"

A decade ago, I did a post about a councillor who tried to defect from the Conservatives to the BNP - only for the BNP to turn him down. He had pimped out his mentally ill wife over the internet.

Today's UKIP would probably take him as long he'd not pimped her to the Muslamics.

AmpfieldAndy

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

I'll never forget Mark Reckless.

I've never celebrated quite so exuberantly a constituency result like I did with Rochester & Strood in 2015.

You can do it again when Soubry loses Broxstowe at the next election.

Probably won't provoke as many celebrations, not least as dozens of other Tories lose their seats and Corbyn becomes PM, so minor victories won't feel as grand.

Depends when the next election is and who replaces May. If the next election is this year, sure, but maybe, maybe not as time elapses. I’ll happily celebrate all 3 of them losing their seats.

I don't see how a very early election is avoided. Pass a deal and maybe enough Indys hold off on backing a no confidence vote to allow legislation to pass, but one then would as the DUP would back it for starters (this presumes a deal sans backstop cannot be obtained). Back no deal and several more Tories probably defect and whatever their wish not to lose their seats I don't see how most Indys and the Tiggers do not back a no confidence vote too. A referendum might avoid the need for one in the short term, but we could end up with both.

The Tories are screwed in the short term and need a new leader to have as much time as possible to recover things for them, but I don't see circumstances permitting that.

We’ll see. I don’t see either the DUP or CUK supporting a VONC as neither want Corbyn in Downing St. If they do, the Tories are indeed screwed. If they don’t, then they have a shot at recovering. Whether they take chance is debatable.

brendan16

justin124 said:

brendan16 said:

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

Not sure Farage even wants that many defections - he gets to hugely influence the party of government/main party of opposition depending on circumstance, as dozens of its MPs agree with him and that party has to struggle with that. Sure actual defections would cause trouble, but there's always the chance the Tories recover the seats and Brexit Party goes nowhere, and the influence over the Tories is lost as the hard men like Baker are gone.

I think Farage will have his hands full keeping Claire Fox and Ann Widdecombe in check and on message - as they are both certain to get elected as MEPs as they are top of the list so won't be going away and are forthright in their views. The ERG should be no bother by comparison!

Baker represents a marginal seat - many of the other ERGers represent very safe pro leave seats. Why would Francois for example want to defect when he has a 24,000 majority and the majority of his south west Essex constituents back his position on the EU 100%. The Brexit party wouldn't run candidates against ERG members anyway in reality - they would focus on the other 250 or so Tory MPs who backed 'the treaty'..

I would not describe Wycombe as a marginal seat - majority 6,500 and Tory held since 1950.

Yes - but its changing rapidly demographically and the incoming voters (e.g. a rapidly growing BME population - the largest of any shire district in England apparently) are more likely to back Labour. Baker of course had a majority of 15,000 in 2015 and it fell to only 6,500 in 2017. It looks like more of a marginal moving forward - probably going Labour soon.

He faces the same issues IDS and Boris do.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1122519071709388801

brendan16

"Those are all important issues but are not really examples of what I meant by matters of 'identity'. If you sit down for a deep & meaningful with the likes of John Redwood you will find that the things you are highlighting are not on the radar. The talk will be exclusively along the lines of what a scandal it is that 'we' are not able to govern 'ourselves' without undue interference from 'them'. WE must Take Back Control from THEM. This is what I mean by Brexit being an Identity Project as far as its leaders are concerned.

Regarding our 'poor and dispossessed' with their real and justified grievances let me put it this way. Will acute relative poverty be significantly more tolerable if they can have complete confidence that it is being inflicted upon them by Jacob Rees Mogg rather than Jean Claude Juncker? Because Rees Mogg is British? He's one of them?

I don't think so. It's a con"

They are - because of who is perceived as driving the population growth, competition and overcrowding.

If you live in a block of flats or a terraced house - you are more likely to care about your neighbours and who they are as you can hear them and see them more often and they can be the cause of stress due to noise or behaviour. If you live in a leafy detached probably less of a concern - as they aren't 'on top of you'.

And that is what leads to clashes of 'identity' - and why the well of middle classes in their leafy detacheds have less of an issue with it.

AmpfieldAndy

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Problem with all this talk of defections is that, as Carswell and Reckless discovered, you defect only to find yourself in an institution in which Farage is God and King and Law. These ERG types don't seem to have the smallest egos so would never last long in such subservience. Yes, you get to annoy the Tory leader for all of eight minutes but your political career is over and you end up just being forgotten and sad.

So far the only 3 snowflakes to have defected are all Remainers - Soubry, Wollaston and Allen. Their political careers will be over when the next election takes place. You need to park your vitriol,and look at what’s actually happening.

ChUK seems fairly pluralistic to me. It may fail politically but hey ho. The Brexit Party is and will remain entirely in Farage's iron grip. Join it and you must be both his conduit and his slave. You would doubtless enjoy such a role; the macho men of the ERG would never be able to stick it.

Change U.K. seems the exact opposite to me - reversionar, high tax, high spend - and for political failures. I happen to agree with you about the Brexit Party which has no appeal to me - sorry ! I don’t see too many macho men in the ERG - just a mixed group who’ve not done the hard work to define what sort of Leave they want but are savvy enough to recognise that neither EU membership, which has been rejected at the ballot box, nor May’s Brino does anything worthwhile.

Boris, JRM and most of the ERG disagree that May's deal does nothing worthwhile. They eventually backed it because it does do something worthwhile, however small.

Disagree - those who backed it did so because they fell for the rhetoric that the alternative was no Brexit. I think Farage’s revival will convince Tories that no Brexit is not an option - a message that will be reinforced when the Tories see how badly they do in the local and European elections.

Stark_Dawning

The most amazing, and perhaps unmentioned, thing about the Brexit Party is Nigel's strategy to make it pro-Muslim. Firstly this allows him contrast his earthy tolerance with the bigotry and cultural obsession of UKIP. He must also have concluded that there are lots of juicy votes available from Muslims who share his anti-internationalist instincts and think Labour is now too obsessed with abstruse dogma and flatulent idealism. Farage is a canny operator - he knows that the centre ground holds big prizes just as the main two parties are falling over themselves to abandon it.

DavidL

There are currently 313 Conservative MPs plus 10 DUP. Given the absence of the 7 Sinn Fein plus the speaker I make that an overall majority of 2. Anyone thinking that getting rid of the likes of Steve Baker should be very careful about what they wish for. 4-5 defections makes any pretense that this government, even on the days that the DUP support them, has a majority as much of a fantasy as most of the rest of our politics.

If it came to a snap election I think the Brexit party might fancy their chances more than those who have disappeared to the CUKs. The difference in their launches and organisation to date has been stark. Any CUKs supporting a VONC really better have a plan B, career wise.

Morris_Dancer

F1: three place grid penalty for Ricciardo next time out for reversing woe.

ydoethur

brendan16 said:

Baker represents a marginal seat - many of the other ERGers represent very safe pro leave seats. Why would Francois for example want to defect when he has a 24,000 majority and the majority of his south west Essex constituents back his position on the EU 100%. The Brexit party wouldn't run candidates against ERG members anyway in reality - they would focus on the other 250 or so Tory MPs who backed 'the treaty'..

There would be a certain irony in a party calling itself 'the Brexit Party' supporting candidates who are blocking Brexit and trying to oust those voting for it.

matt

Stark_Dawning said:

The most amazing, and perhaps unmentioned, thing about the Brexit Party is Nigel's strategy to make it pro-Muslim. Firstly this allows him contrast his earthy tolerance with the bigotry and cultural obsession of UKIP. He must also have concluded that there are lots of juicy votes available from Muslims who share his anti-internationalist instincts and think Labour is now too obsessed with abstruse dogma and flatulent idealism. Farage is a canny operator - he knows that the centre ground holds big prizes just as the main two parties are falling over themselves to abandon it.

An immigration tension there though.