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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tomorrow at 1800 the Peterborough recall petition closes and the count takes place that evening

After what seems to be inordinately long period of time the Peterborough recall petition is drawing to a close and tomorrow night Fiona Onasanya will learn whether she can continue as an MP or not. Even if 6,967 (10% of the electorate) have signed that would not be the end of the matter for Onasanya. She would be able to stand in the ensuing by-election though not for Labour.

Read the full story here

Pulpstar

Let's see how big the recall total is

Scott_P

If there is an election, Brignitas have said they will stand

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1123059634686787584

kle4

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

HYUFD

I would make the Brexit Party favourites for Peterborough if we are still in the EU to get the first Brexit Party MP and the LDs for Brecon and Radnor if there are by elections in both

AlastairMeeks

If there isn't a recall here, you would expect recalls to be very few and far between indeed.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1123051642184773633?s=20

HYUFD

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1123052737518821376?s=20

kle4

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

AlastairMeeks

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1123051642184773633?s=20

Elizabeth Warren is starting to rise back up the ratings. She has been getting the admiration of the cognoscenti recently. I wonder whether after a lag that might start feeding through into the polling numbers more?

kle4

Scott_P said:

If there is an election, Brignitas have said they will stand

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1123059634686787584

Expect to see Farage to be accused of being frit if he does not stand, as if that matters.

OblitusSumMe

Pulpstar said:

Let's see how big the recall total is

Does the law allow people to have a prediction competition?

isam

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

The form from the 2017 GE is a red herring and must be avoided at all costs

isam

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

If there is an election, Brignitas have said they will stand

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1123059634686787584

Expect to see Farage to be accused of being frit if he does not stand, as if that matters.

He has already said he isn't standing

Roger

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

lol

Roger be honest, you dont actually know where Oldham is do you ?

That wasn't a geographical question. I just thought it interesting that we've now got clear proof he's a reincarnation of Enoch Powell and to days Tories are flocking to him like bees around a honey pot. It surely tells you something?

Yes it does. None of it good for the Tories.

......and 40 years after we thought we'd put this kind of thing behind us for good it's alive and kicking and living in Leaver-Land

Peter_the_Punter

Alastair/Hyufd

This is a tricky one. In the absence of a regular betting market, we could run a book here for a bit. But what would the tissue prices be a) on a by-election being triggered and b) on the by-election outcome in the event it goes ahead?

I would tentatively suggest:
a) 1/4 it's triggered
b) Labour 1/2, Brexit 6/4, Con 5/1

Am I far out?

isam

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alastair/Hyufd

This is a tricky one. In the absence of a regular betting market, we could run our book here for a bit. But what would the tissue prices be a) on a by-election being triggered and b) on the by-election outcome in the event it goes ahead?

I would tentatively suggest:
a) 1/4 it's triggered
b) Labour 1/2, Brexit 4/6, Con 5/1

Am I far out?

You wont go skint with that overround! I presume you mean 6/4 Brexit (and the point still stands)

rottenborough

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1123051642184773633?s=20

Elizabeth Warren is starting to rise back up the ratings. She has been getting the admiration of the cognoscenti recently. I wonder whether after a lag that might start feeding through into the polling numbers more?

Biden now fav on BF. Not sure exactly when the crossover with Bernie happened, but was in the last couple of days since I last looked.

Peter_the_Punter

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alastair/Hyufd

This is a tricky one. In the absence of a regular betting market, we could run our book here for a bit. But what would the tissue prices be a) on a by-election being triggered and b) on the by-election outcome in the event it goes ahead?

I would tentatively suggest:
a) 1/4 it's triggered
b) Labour 1/2, Brexit 4/6, Con 5/1

Am I far out?

You wont go skint with that overround! I presume you mean 6/4 Brexit (and the point still stands)

Thanks Isam. Yes, a typo of course which I have now corrected, but Ireally would want a decent overround here until I saw how the book was shaping.

What to you think? You're the pro!

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1123129884275089408

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

If there isn't a recall here, you would expect recalls to be very few and far between indeed.

Agreed. 10% of the electorate is a high barrier but if it is ever going to be met it would be here. Her conduct in hanging on like this is an aggravation of already unacceptable situation.

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

When are we resume match making with phosphorus? Those young girls need jobs.

Roger

You have to feel sorry for her. She thought she'd won the lottery and on the way to collecting her prize she lost her ticket. It was a once in a lifetime chance blown because she has the small character flaw of believing that breaking the law is OK if you think you can get away with it.

rottenborough

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1123129884275089408

Clearly the re-education of Momentum members not going as planned. Surely they have read the memo explaining state aid and why Jezza and chums want out of the EU?

isam

Peter_the_Punter said:

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alastair/Hyufd

This is a tricky one. In the absence of a regular betting market, we could run our book here for a bit. But what would the tissue prices be a) on a by-election being triggered and b) on the by-election outcome in the event it goes ahead?

I would tentatively suggest:
a) 1/4 it's triggered
b) Labour 1/2, Brexit 4/6, Con 5/1

Am I far out?

You wont go skint with that overround! I presume you mean 6/4 Brexit (and the point still stands)

Thanks Isam. Yes, a typo of course which I have now corrected, but Ireally would want a decent overround here until I saw how the book was shaping.

What to you think? You're the pro!

No idea! My only view as a bookie would be to take on people who think the 2017 GE is at all relevant

Roger

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

It's difficult to imagine which votes he hopes to gain? Aspiring coal-miners?

rottenborough

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alastair/Hyufd

This is a tricky one. In the absence of a regular betting market, we could run a book here for a bit. But what would the tissue prices be a) on a by-election being triggered and b) on the by-election outcome in the event it goes ahead?

I would tentatively suggest:
a) 1/4 it's triggered
b) Labour 1/2, Brexit 6/4, Con 5/1

Am I far out?

Will Labour put off moving the writ until the autumn? A by-election any time near the EU election or in the aftermath will be really difficult for them.

Quincel

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alastair/Hyufd

This is a tricky one. In the absence of a regular betting market, we could run a book here for a bit. But what would the tissue prices be a) on a by-election being triggered and b) on the by-election outcome in the event it goes ahead?

I would tentatively suggest:
a) 1/4 it's triggered
b) Labour 1/2, Brexit 6/4, Con 5/1

Am I far out?

I'd probably make Labour slightly stronger favourites unless she runs as an indy/spoiler, but I think you and I are pretty close.

AlastairMeeks

As a practical matter I will almost certainly be betting against the Brexit party in Peterborough (and more generally). Past experience has shown that hardline Eurosceptics bet with their hearts and while the Brexit party will certainly have their chances, I expect them to be overestimated again by the markets.

Quincel

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1123052737518821376?s=20

How about Mayor Pete's race split? His support is almost exclusively from white voters. You can win a GE like that, but you can't win the Dem primaries if you're getting hammered in every southern state (and a few others with sizeable black votes).

He's got time to broaden his base, but it is something he absolutely has to confront before South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

DavidL

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

lol

Roger be honest, you dont actually know where Oldham is do you ?

That wasn't a geographical question. I just thought it interesting that we've now got clear proof he's a reincarnation of Enoch Powell and to days Tories are flocking to him like bees around a honey pot. It surely tells you something?

Yes it does. None of it good for the Tories.

......and 40 years after we thought we'd put this kind of thing behind us for good it's alive and kicking and living in Leaver-Land

I heard an interview yesterday whilst driving from someone who had been involved with the Ritchie report after the 2001 race riots. She was clearly no fan of Farage but she confirmed that whilst things were better than they had been in 2001 there was still significant segregation in the town, there were still a significant number of older people with little or no English, that although some progress had been made in the immediate aftermath of the report the inevitable cuts meant little was being done to encourage social integration now. Notwithstanding that she said as a Community worker in the town she now saw mixed groups of school kids going about together in a way that was not the case in 2001.

In short she seemed to accept that Farage's description remained substantially true if now a little overstated. What a disaster multiculturalism was.

Harris_Tweed

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I was going to say something about brexit going quiet and wondering whether we were just going to coast to another crisis in October.

But I take the point being made that everyone’s staying quiet during the local elex campaign. So my question is what happens on Friday? Does an expected* Tory drubbing:

(a) encourage Tories behind the Deal to avoid EU elex?
(b) harden other parties against it because they want more electoral fun in three weeks?
(c) hasten TM’s departure and scatter the deck completely?

(*while I accept there’ll be a spin operation - “everyone said we’d lose 1000 seats and it was less than 950” - I can’t see a situation where Thursday looks like a good outcome for Tories. Or probably most other parties, the voting system, democracy in general etc)

The Tories will win most seats on Thursday almost certainly given it is mainly the Shires up and London and Wales and Scotland have no local elections.

The LDs though are projected to make more gains than Labour even if Labour win the NEV

“Most seats” pretty irrelevant when they’re defending a huge number.

In 1995 Labour won most seats even on the same electoral cycle so if Corbyn fails to win it would confirm the Tories are at least not at 1997 meltdown stage

(FPT)

Or that Labour haven't got a charismatic, centrist, popular, electable leader.

Your takeout may still be true.. but it's not for the want of trying on the Tories' part, and it's only Corbyn's equal lack of attractiveness which is saving them.

Quincel

AlastairMeeks said:

As a practical matter I will almost certainly be betting against the Brexit party in Peterborough (and more generally). Past experience has shown that hardline Eurosceptics bet with their hearts and while the Brexit party will certainly have their chances, I expect them to be overestimated again by the markets.

Agreed. Even when they win their odds tend to be too short. Plus there's a persistent bias in the markers ever since Brexit and Trump for favouring dramatic wins. Betting on the establishment candidates to hold on has become fairly profitable.

DavidL

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

HYUFD

Harris_Tweed said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I was going to say something about brexit going quiet and wondering whether we were just going to coast to another crisis in October.

But I take the point being made that everyone’s staying quiet during the local elex campaign. So my question is what happens on Friday? Does an expected* Tory drubbing:

(a) encourage Tories behind the Deal to avoid EU elex?
(b) harden other parties against it because they want more electoral fun in three weeks?
(c) hasten TM’s departure and scatter the deck completely?

(*while I accept there’ll be a spin operation - “everyone said we’d lose 1000 seats and it was less than 950” - I can’t see a situation where Thursday looks like a good outcome for Tories. Or probably most other parties, the voting system, democracy in general etc)

The Tories will win most seats on Thursday almost certainly given it is mainly the Shires up and London and Wales and Scotland have no local elections.

The LDs though are projected to make more gains than Labour even if Labour win the NEV

“Most seats” pretty irrelevant when they’re defending a huge number.

In 1995 Labour won most seats even on the same electoral cycle so if Corbyn fails to win it would confirm the Tories are at least not at 1997 meltdown stage

(FPT)

Or that Labour haven't got a charismatic, centrist, popular, electable leader.

Your takeout may still be true.. but it's not for the want of trying on the Tories' part, and it's only Corbyn's equal lack of attractiveness which is saving them.

Maybe but that does not change that fact

Peter_the_Punter

DavidL said:

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

lol

Roger be honest, you dont actually know where Oldham is do you ?

That wasn't a geographical question. I just thought it interesting that we've now got clear proof he's a reincarnation of Enoch Powell and to days Tories are flocking to him like bees around a honey pot. It surely tells you something?

Yes it does. None of it good for the Tories.

......and 40 years after we thought we'd put this kind of thing behind us for good it's alive and kicking and living in Leaver-Land

I heard an interview yesterday whilst driving from someone who had been involved with the Ritchie report after the 2001 race riots. She was clearly no fan of Farage but she confirmed that whilst things were better than they had been in 2001 there was still significant segregation in the town, there were still a significant number of older people with little or no English, that although some progress had been made in the immediate aftermath of the report the inevitable cuts meant little was being done to encourage social integration now. Notwithstanding that she said as a Community worker in the town she now saw mixed groups of school kids going about together in a way that was not the case in 2001.

In short she seemed to accept that Farage's description remained substantially true if now a little overstated. What a disaster multiculturalism was.

Yes, I heard that too, David.

It was nice to hear from a professional with real local knowledge and no desire to exploit the situation for political gain.

isam

AlastairMeeks said:

As a practical matter I will almost certainly be betting against the Brexit party in Peterborough (and more generally). Past experience has shown that hardline Eurosceptics bet with their hearts and while the Brexit party will certainly have their chances, I expect them to be overestimated again by the markets.

That is true of both sides... I had numerous bets on here with people who refused to believe UKIP could get over 9 or 10% in 2015, or beat the Lib Dems in vote share, although I guess they could have been arbing

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

lol

Roger be honest, you dont actually know where Oldham is do you ?

That wasn't a geographical question. I just thought it interesting that we've now got clear proof he's a reincarnation of Enoch Powell and to days Tories are flocking to him like bees around a honey pot. It surely tells you something?

Yes it does. None of it good for the Tories.

......and 40 years after we thought we'd put this kind of thing behind us for good it's alive and kicking and living in Leaver-Land

after 15 years I thought we were leaving all the suppress uncomfortable issues meme behind us. Irresepective of whether you like the man or not ( not my type ) what happens if he's got a point ?

Alanbrooke

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

have more protests in London

HYUFD

Quincel said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1123052737518821376?s=20

How about Mayor Pete's race split? His support is almost exclusively from white voters. You can win a GE like that, but you can't win the Dem primaries if you're getting hammered in every southern state (and a few others with sizeable black votes).

He's got time to broaden his base, but it is something he absolutely has to confront before South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

Yes Buttigieg has no hope in southern primaries and indeed western primaries unless he gets more Black and Hispanic support

isam

Quincel said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a practical matter I will almost certainly be betting against the Brexit party in Peterborough (and more generally). Past experience has shown that hardline Eurosceptics bet with their hearts and while the Brexit party will certainly have their chances, I expect them to be overestimated again by the markets.

Agreed. Even when they win their odds tend to be too short. Plus there's a persistent bias in the markers ever since Brexit and Trump for favouring dramatic wins. Betting on the establishment candidates to hold on has become fairly profitable.

Incredibly small sample to be drawing conclusions from I would say. Labour are establishment but they got a massive favourite turned over at the last GE

Harris_Tweed

On topic(ish)... rare that electoral staff will be troubled on a Wednesday night for the recall petition!

Probably refreshing the law didn't mandate a Thursday close.. and I guess on balance easier that it's not alongside the local election count (Peterborough CC has a third of seats up for grabs)

DavidL

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

have more protests in London

Not sure. Its quite light for missile material and you really wouldn't want coal dirt on your cool designer T shirt.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123134507505324032

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

Find an empty coal mine to store the stuff in.

Isn't that an old article written during the 2015 leadership campaign?

another_richard

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

You can't reopen something which no longer exists.

They would have to be new mines with commensurate increases in time and cost to open them.

isam

Peter_the_Punter said:

DavidL said:

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

lol

Roger be honest, you dont actually know where Oldham is do you ?

That wasn't a geographical question. I just thought it interesting that we've now got clear proof he's a reincarnation of Enoch Powell and to days Tories are flocking to him like bees around a honey pot. It surely tells you something?

Yes it does. None of it good for the Tories.

......and 40 years after we thought we'd put this kind of thing behind us for good it's alive and kicking and living in Leaver-Land

I heard an interview yesterday whilst driving from someone who had been involved with the Ritchie report after the 2001 race riots. She was clearly no fan of Farage but she confirmed that whilst things were better than they had been in 2001 there was still significant segregation in the town, there were still a significant number of older people with little or no English, that although some progress had been made in the immediate aftermath of the report the inevitable cuts meant little was being done to encourage social integration now. Notwithstanding that she said as a Community worker in the town she now saw mixed groups of school kids going about together in a way that was not the case in 2001.

In short she seemed to accept that Farage's description remained substantially true if now a little overstated. What a disaster multiculturalism was.

Yes, I heard that too, David.

It was nice to hear from a professional with real local knowledge and no desire to exploit the situation for political gain.

Lord Lester and Roy Jenkins, two of the architects of the multiculturalism experiment, confessed they had no idea of the consequences that would follow, and even Tony Blair is now admitting his guilt for not preparing the country for what he unleashed.

Slackbladder

why the f*** would we ever go back to digging up coal??

Alanbrooke

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

have more protests in London

Not sure. Its quite light for missile material and you really wouldn't want coal dirt on your cool designer T shirt.

anyway good to see the knife crime epidemic in London has stopped now that the upper middle classes are having a self righteous contest

isam

https://twitter.com/dannythefink/status/1123132799236571136?s=21

isam

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

have more protests in London

Not sure. Its quite light for missile material and you really wouldn't want coal dirt on your cool designer T shirt.

anyway good to see the knife crime epidemic in London has stopped now that the upper middle classes are having a self righteous contest

https://twitter.com/miss_snuffy/status/1122061023761129472?s=21

DavidL

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

Find an empty coal mine to store the stuff in.

Isn't that an old article written during the 2015 leadership campaign?

IANAE but I have read that there may be real storage opportunities in the north sea in depleted wells and in some old coal mines but I think most of them would have closed up with pressure. Where's Richard when you need him?

There is an interesting prescription case (I have a slightly sad life) that came out last month on the Scottish Courts website where Council houses were built over old coal workings. The tenants became ill from the gases coming from the coal workings that accumulated in their houses. The tenants had to be evacuated and the houses demolished so that a sealant barrier could be put in. Probably very shallow mines but rather showed a problem.

HYUFD

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too

Powys voted 53% Leave

Peter_the_Punter

isam said:

Quincel said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a practical matter I will almost certainly be betting against the Brexit party in Peterborough (and more generally). Past experience has shown that hardline Eurosceptics bet with their hearts and while the Brexit party will certainly have their chances, I expect them to be overestimated again by the markets.

Agreed. Even when they win their odds tend to be too short. Plus there's a persistent bias in the markers ever since Brexit and Trump for favouring dramatic wins. Betting on the establishment candidates to hold on has become fairly profitable.

Incredibly small sample to be drawing conclusions from I would say. Labour are establishment but they got a massive favourite turned over at the last GE

The Tories ran with Stewart Jackson, once of this parish, who could always be relied upon to depress a tory vote vote by a thousand or two.

Perhaps I should have included prices for the LDS, Green and TIG too. In these extraordinary times, and it would be an extraordinary by-election, who knows?!

Cyclefree

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123134507505324032

One wonders when the penny will drop that Labour is not the party for those wanting a second referendum.

Alanbrooke

isam said:

https://twitter.com/dannythefink/status/1123132799236571136?s=21

lol

since Blair the billionaire is just as likely to vote Labour

Peter_the_Punter

Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123134507505324032

One wonders when the penny will drop that Labour is not the party for those wanting a second referendum.

Don't look at me in that tone of voice, Cyclefree! My penny went clunk some time ago.

Peter_the_Punter

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too

Powys voted 53% Leave

True, although there have been indications since that some Welsh believe they may have made a mistake.

isam

Peter_the_Punter said:

isam said:

Quincel said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a practical matter I will almost certainly be betting against the Brexit party in Peterborough (and more generally). Past experience has shown that hardline Eurosceptics bet with their hearts and while the Brexit party will certainly have their chances, I expect them to be overestimated again by the markets.

Agreed. Even when they win their odds tend to be too short. Plus there's a persistent bias in the markers ever since Brexit and Trump for favouring dramatic wins. Betting on the establishment candidates to hold on has become fairly profitable.

Incredibly small sample to be drawing conclusions from I would say. Labour are establishment but they got a massive favourite turned over at the last GE

The Tories ran with Stewart Jackson, once of this parish, who could always be relied upon to depress a tory vote vote by a thousand or two.

Perhaps I should have included prices for the LDS, Green and TIG too. In these extraordinary times, and it would be an extraordinary by-election, who knows?!

Tricky for both bookie and punter at the mo I would say Peter.

In 2017 both major parties ran on manifestos of accepting and implementing the referendum result. Even Chuka, Soubry and Heidi were devout followers of this edict. UKIP ran a a half arsed campaign and didn't field candidates in a lot of seats, Farage had retired.

Anyone factoring in the results of 2017 in the current climate must be taken on, the form is worthless

Jonathan

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

Cyclefree

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

DavidL said:

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

I heard an interview yesterday whilst driving from someone who had been involved with the Ritchie report after the 2001 race riots. She was clearly no fan of Farage but she confirmed that whilst things were better than they had been in 2001 there was still significant segregation in the town, there were still a significant number of older people with little or no English, that although some progress had been made in the immediate aftermath of the report the inevitable cuts meant little was being done to encourage social integration now. Notwithstanding that she said as a Community worker in the town she now saw mixed groups of school kids going about together in a way that was not the case in 2001.

In short she seemed to accept that Farage's description remained substantially true if now a little overstated. What a disaster multiculturalism was.

Yes, I heard that too, David.

It was nice to hear from a professional with real local knowledge and no desire to exploit the situation for political gain.

Lord Lester and Roy Jenkins, two of the architects of the multiculturalism experiment, confessed they had no idea of the consequences that would follow, and even Tony Blair is now admitting his guilt for not preparing the country for what he unleashed.

I heard the same interview. It was an interesting one.

But Farage’s statement is untrue. He could have said what that lady said but he chose to simplify to the point of lying, much as Powell did (with his very specific reference to an old lady who could never be found).

In doing so, he undermines the genuine concerns people have about poor integration and its consequences and helps create an atmosphere which gives succour to extremists rather than to those who are trying to bridge the divides which do exist. And the policy he explicitly supports (Brexit) is likely to lead - and has already since the referendum - to an increase in the type of immigration he claims to deplore. So he is stupid as well as malign. Or he just cynically says whatever his audience wants to hear just so long as he continues to get the glory, status and money.

Peter_the_Punter

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

isam said:

Quincel said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a practical matter I will almost certainly be betting against the Brexit party in Peterborough (and more generally). Past experience has shown that hardline Eurosceptics bet with their hearts and while the Brexit party will certainly have their chances, I expect them to be overestimated again by the markets.

Agreed. Even when they win their odds tend to be too short. Plus there's a persistent bias in the markers ever since Brexit and Trump for favouring dramatic wins. Betting on the establishment candidates to hold on has become fairly profitable.

Incredibly small sample to be drawing conclusions from I would say. Labour are establishment but they got a massive favourite turned over at the last GE

The Tories ran with Stewart Jackson, once of this parish, who could always be relied upon to depress a tory vote vote by a thousand or two.

Perhaps I should have included prices for the LDS, Green and TIG too. In these extraordinary times, and it would be an extraordinary by-election, who knows?!

Tricky for both bookie and punter at the mo I would say Peter.

In 2017 both major parties ran on manifestos of accepting and implementing the referendum result. Even Chuka, Soubry and Heidi were devout followers of this edict. UKIP ran a a half arsed campaign and didn't field candidates in a lot of seats, Farage had retired.

Anyone factoring in the results of 2017 in the current climate must be taken on, the form is worthless

Tricky indeed. On reflection I think if anyone offered me 50s any Party other than Labour, Brexit and Conservatives, I'd take it.

isam

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

DavidL said:

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

I heard an interview yesterday whilst driving from someone who had been involved with the Ritchie report after the 2001 race riots. She was clearly no fan of Farage but she confirmed that whilst things were better than they had been in 2001 there was still significant segregation in the town, there were still a significant number of older people with little or no English, that although some progress had been made in the immediate aftermath of the report the inevitable cuts meant little was being done to encourage social integration now. Notwithstanding that she said as a Community worker in the town she now saw mixed groups of school kids going about together in a way that was not the case in 2001.

In short she seemed to accept that Farage's description remained substantially true if now a little overstated. What a disaster multiculturalism was.

Yes, I heard that too, David.

It was nice to hear from a professional with real local knowledge and no desire to exploit the situation for political gain.

Lord Lester and Roy Jenkins, two of the architects of the multiculturalism experiment, confessed they had no idea of the consequences that would follow, and even Tony Blair is now admitting his guilt for not preparing the country for what he unleashed.

I heard the same interview. It was an interesting one.

But Farage’s statement is untrue. He could have said what that lady said but he chose to simplify to the point of lying, much as Powell did (with his very specific reference to an old lady who could never be found).

In doing so, he undermines the genuine concerns people have about poor integration and its consequences and helps create an atmosphere which gives succour to extremists rather than to those who are trying to bridge the divides which do exist. And the policy he explicitly supports (Brexit) is likely to lead - and has already since the referendum - to an increase in the type of immigration he claims to deplore. So he is stupid as well as malign. Or he just cynically says whatever his audience wants to hear just so long as he continues to get the glory, status and money.

Or he exaggerates the point to prise the discussion out from under the surface

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Jezza the saviour of the coal industry....Left wing Trump....

DavidL

Jonathan said:

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

The extension was a mistake. No one is shifting position, the "negotiations" with Labour are going nowhere as was inevitable. It was obvious that more uncertainty was the worst possible outcome and yet politicians went for it anyway. They are a disgrace as a class. Just not fit for purpose.

Pulpstar

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

You can't reopen something which no longer exists.

They would have to be new mines with commensurate increases in time and cost to open them.

Corbyn will need to get his skates on, the ex pit a few miles up the road is going to be turned into housing shortly.

https://tinyurl.com/Northnottscolliery

isam

https://twitter.com/jarvisdupont/status/1123139423435198465?s=21

Theuniondivvie

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

Doh! Stick it in the bath of course.

Nigelb

isam said:

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Yes, I heard that too, David.

It was nice to hear from a professional with real local knowledge and no desire to exploit the situation for political gain.

Lord Lester and Roy Jenkins, two of the architects of the multiculturalism experiment, confessed they had no idea of the consequences that would follow, and even Tony Blair is now admitting his guilt for not preparing the country for what he unleashed.

I heard the same interview. It was an interesting one.

But Farage’s statement is untrue. He could have said what that lady said but he chose to simplify to the point of lying, much as Powell did (with his very specific reference to an old lady who could never be found).

In doing so, he undermines the genuine concerns people have about poor integration and its consequences and helps create an atmosphere which gives succour to extremists rather than to those who are trying to bridge the divides which do exist. And the policy he explicitly supports (Brexit) is likely to lead - and has already since the referendum - to an increase in the type of immigration he claims to deplore. So he is stupid as well as malign. Or he just cynically says whatever his audience wants to hear just so long as he continues to get the glory, status and money.

Or he exaggerates the point to prise the discussion out from under the surface

That the Faragist version of Alan Clark ?

TheKitchenCabinet

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too

Powys voted 53% Leave

I could see BP winning Brecon as well. At the moment, it seems to form a home for two types (1) those genuinely wanting a harder form of Brexit and (2) those wanting to give both political parties a kick up the backside (and who are not virulently pro-Remain). I suspect in both those seats, especially given voter fragmentation, there would be enough of (1) + (2) combine to push BP over the line.

TOPPING

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

DavidL said:

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

I 1.

In short she seemed to accept that Farage's description remained substantially true if now a little overstated. What a disaster multiculturalism was.

Yes, I heard that too, David.

It was nice to hear from a professional with real local knowledge and no desire to exploit the situation for political gain.

Lord Lester and Roy Jenkins, two of the architects of the multiculturalism experiment, confessed they had no idea of the consequences that would follow, and even Tony Blair is now admitting his guilt for not preparing the country for what he unleashed.

I heard the same interview. It was an interesting one.

But Farage’s statement is untrue. He could have said what that lady said but he chose to simplify to the point of lying, much as Powell did (with his very specific reference to an old lady who could never be found).

In doing so, he undermines the genuine concerns people have about poor integration and its consequences and helps create an atmosphere which gives succour to extremists rather than to those who are trying to bridge the divides which do exist. And the policy he explicitly supports (Brexit) is likely to lead - and has already since the referendum - to an increase in the type of immigration he claims to deplore. So he is stupid as well as malign. Or he just cynically says whatever his audience wants to hear just so long as he continues to get the glory, status and money.

fpt

TOPPING said:

Foxy said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

Yes, but doesn't the Brexit Party favour Non EU migrants from the Commonwealth like those in Oldham?

Yes they are campaigning for the rights of those from the Indian subcontinent to come to the UK. And looking at recent immigration figures they are having some success.

It must cheer the heart of former Kippers everywhere.

rottenborough

Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123134507505324032

One wonders when the penny will drop that Labour is not the party for those wanting a second referendum.

I know. Staggering isn't it. I suppose they are all sitting their endlessly persuading themselves that it will be ok in the end and the party will come around to the 2nd vote.

Pulpstar

Quincel said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a practical matter I will almost certainly be betting against the Brexit party in Peterborough (and more generally). Past experience has shown that hardline Eurosceptics bet with their hearts and while the Brexit party will certainly have their chances, I expect them to be overestimated again by the markets.

Agreed. Even when they win their odds tend to be too short. Plus there's a persistent bias in the markers ever since Brexit and Trump for favouring dramatic wins. Betting on the establishment candidates to hold on has become fairly profitable.

For sure. But I think the Brexit party are rightly favourites for the Euros.

IanB2

TheKitchenCabinet said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too

Powys voted 53% Leave

I could see BP winning Brecon as well. At the moment, it seems to form a home for two types (1) those genuinely wanting a harder form of Brexit and (2) those wanting to give both political parties a kick up the backside (and who are not virulently pro-Remain). I suspect in both those seats, especially given voter fragmentation, there would be enough of (1) + (2) combine to push BP over the line.

That's getting carried away

Mango

isam said:

Or he exaggerates the point to prise the discussion out from under the surface

Sounds like one of those Yes Minister irregular verbs: I exaggerate the point to prise the discussion out, you simplify to the point of lying, he has been charged with incitement to racial hatred

DavidL

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

Doh! Stick it in the bath of course.

We're going to need a bigger bath.

Nigelb

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1123051642184773633?s=20

Elizabeth Warren is starting to rise back up the ratings. She has been getting the admiration of the cognoscenti recently. I wonder whether after a lag that might start feeding through into the polling numbers more?

You might be right - and FWIW I put a few quid back on Warren first thing this morning when I saw the poll.
Intended as a trading bet.

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

You can't reopen something which no longer exists.

They would have to be new mines with commensurate increases in time and cost to open them.

Corbyn will need to get his skates on, the ex pit a few miles up the road is going to be turned into housing shortly.

https://tinyurl.com/Northnottscolliery

And McTernan's article quoted is from 2015 ??!

ByRachel Wearmouth
16:57, 8 AUG 2015UPDATED00:08, 9 AUG 2015

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123134507505324032

One wonders when the penny will drop that Labour is not the party for those wanting a second referendum.

I know. Staggering isn't it. I suppose they are all sitting their endlessly persuading themselves that it will be ok in the end and the party will come around to the 2nd vote.

I have a feeling they will finally announce one but it will be so caveated to be worthless. But it will convince enough people, just like Jezza's commitment on Trident and curbed on immigration at the last GE.

Nigelb

>

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

Doh! Stick it in the bath of course.

Corbyn is an absolute shower...

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

You can't reopen something which no longer exists.

They would have to be new mines with commensurate increases in time and cost to open them.

Corbyn will need to get his skates on, the ex pit a few miles up the road is going to be turned into housing shortly.

https://tinyurl.com/Northnottscolliery

And McTernan's article quoted is from 2015 ??!

ByRachel Wearmouth
16:57, 8 AUG 2015UPDATED00:08, 9 AUG 2015

Yes but Jezza has never changed his opinion on anything for the past 40 years.

MarqueeMark

Jonathan said:

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."

*Any other EU leader will do the job though.

Theuniondivvie

isam said:

Or he exaggerates the point to prise the discussion out from under the surface

So all that "Brexit 'cos FOM is racist letting in white EUs and keeping out our black, brown and yellow breddrin" is, to put it kindly, bollox.

Still, glad to see that for once Farage was being honest in saying that there's no difference between the Brexit Party and UKIP in terms of policy.

Pulpstar

John McTernan is precisely the reason why Corbyn is in charge of Labour right now, and their long term decline in Scotland.

Mysticrose

I guess if police press criminal charges over the Huawei leak there might be another Recall Petition ...

Okay, not a very likely scenario

FrancisUrquhart

On topic, has there been a lot of publicity of this recall locally? Nationally, after the trial verdict, there has been little coverage.

MarqueeMark

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

Gridwatch shows that coal is currently contributing 0.00% to our energy needs. That is normal these days. What exactly are we going to do with the stuff once we dug it up?

Doh! Stick it in the bath of course.

We're going to need a bigger bath.

Stick it in Bath.....

Alanbrooke

Cyclefree said:

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

DavidL said:

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

I heard an interview yesterday whi in 2001.

In short she seemed to accept that Farage's description remained substantially true if now a little overstated. What a disaster multiculturalism was.

Yes, I heard that too, David.

It was nice to hear from a professional with real local knowledge and no desire to exploit the situation for political gain.

Lord Lester and Roy Jenkins, two of the architects of the multiculturalism experiment, confessed they had no idea of the consequences that would follow, and even Tony Blair is now admitting his guilt for not preparing the country for what he unleashed.

I heard the same interview. It was an interesting one.

But Farage’s statement is untrue. He could have said what that lady said but he chose to simplify to the point of lying, much as Powell did (with his very specific reference to an old lady who could never be found).

In doing so, he undermines the genuine concerns people have about poor integration and its consequences and helps create an atmosphere which gives succour to extremists rather than to those who are trying to bridge the divides which do exist. And the policy he explicitly supports (Brexit) is likely to lead - and has already since the referendum - to an increase in the type of immigration he claims to deplore. So he is stupid as well as malign. Or he just cynically says whatever his audience wants to hear just so long as he continues to get the glory, status and money.

Or he just cynically says whatever his audience wants to hear just so long as he continues to get the glory, status and money.

how does that differ from Blair or Cameron ?

El_Capitano

TheKitchenCabinet said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too

Powys voted 53% Leave

I could see BP winning Brecon as well. At the moment, it seems to form a home for two types (1) those genuinely wanting a harder form of Brexit and (2) those wanting to give both political parties a kick up the backside (and who are not virulently pro-Remain). I suspect in both those seats, especially given voter fragmentation, there would be enough of (1) + (2) combine to push BP over the line.

There is no way a Farage-led party will win Brecon & Radnor.

I have typed and retyped about five paragraphs trying to explain this but... no. Go there. Meet the people. They are not voting Farage any time in the next 100 years. He would get some votes in the poorer parts of Llandod and one or two of the more struggling farmers and that is it.

MarqueeMark

Is it worth seeing Avengers: Endgame in 3D?

isam

Given that MPs never wanted to leave, pretended to in 2017 to keep their jobs, then refused to pass any deal, can we have another go at remaining, but this time with half the leave vote disenfranchised?

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1122887224838754304?s=21

John_McLean

Looks like Trumpton Castle is showing signs of subsidence...

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/29/politics/trump-lawsuit-capital-one/index.html

Stark_Dawning

Roger said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

It's difficult to imagine which votes he hopes to gain? Aspiring coal-miners?

Curiously there's a contingent of the Daily Mail crowd that might be be receptive. The paper has run pieces about how there's an abundance of Great British coal just waiting to be tapped with new technology, and we're being ripped off by the imported foreign muck.

williamglenn

A new unicorn hunt.

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1123121004577001473?s=21

Theuniondivvie

Stark_Dawning said:

Roger said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1122864164689592320

It's difficult to imagine which votes he hopes to gain? Aspiring coal-miners?

Curiously there's a contingent of the Daily Mail crowd that might be be receptive. The paper has run pieces about how there's an abundance of Great British coal just waiting to be tapped with new technology, and we're being ripped off by the imported foreign muck.

The island of coal in a sea of fish demographic.

Roger

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

lol

Roger be honest, you dont actually know where Oldham is do you ?

That wasn't a geographical question. I just thought it interesting that we've now got clear proof he's a reincarnation of Enoch Powell and to days Tories are flocking to him like bees around a honey pot. It surely tells you something?

Yes it does. None of it good for the Tories.

......and 40 years after we thought we'd put this kind of thing behind us for good it's alive and kicking and living in Leaver-Land

after 15 years I thought we were leaving all the suppress uncomfortable issues meme behind us. Irresepective of whether you like the man or not ( not my type ) what happens if he's got a point ?

But he doesn't have a point. If two communities like to live in areas with people they feel more affinity with why shouldn't they? Why didn't he talk about Brooklyn with their Hasidic community or Golders Green or Prestwich in Manchester? Whole areas with almost 100% Jewish communities. It's called living in a free country.

My flat in Soho is opposite the Admiral Duncan. One night some years ago there was a doorman outside who told me I couldn't come in. 'Gays only I'm afraid'. I told him I lived opposite and I was meeting someone. 'Is he gay?' he asked. 'I don't think so' I said. 'Well he won't have got in then' he replied

Just as I was about to kick up a fuss he said 'Listen I'm really sorry but we're turning this into a gay pub so we're keeping straights out for a month and by then it'll be gay and we'll let anyone in'. 'Fair enough' I said and that was that. Sure enough the restriction stopped and it's been a 'gay pub' ever since. Interestingly Soho has always been as multi cultural as anywhere in the land but even there they can choose who they want to mix with.

YBarddCwsc

El_Capitano said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

BP standing = easy Labour hold.

No, BP gain it is a strong Leave seat

A strong leave seat which narrowly elected a labour MP last time and where the leave vote will be split as the Tories might well reduce but not collapse like in the EP elections

No, if we are still in the EU by the by election and with the BP having momentum from likely winning the Euro elections Tory voters will tactically vote BP and if Labour loses a marginal seat it is defending like Peterborough that could terrify enough Labour MPs in Leave seats for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

If we are still in the EU by a Brecon by election I would also not rule out the BP wining there too as Brecon and Radnor voted Leave too

Powys voted 53% Leave

I could see BP winning Brecon as well. At the moment, it seems to form a home for two types (1) those genuinely wanting a harder form of Brexit and (2) those wanting to give both political parties a kick up the backside (and who are not virulently pro-Remain). I suspect in both those seats, especially given voter fragmentation, there would be enough of (1) + (2) combine to push BP over the line.

There is no way a Farage-led party will win Brecon & Radnor.

I have typed and retyped about five paragraphs trying to explain this but... no. Go there. Meet the people. They are not voting Farage any time in the next 100 years. He would get some votes in the poorer parts of Llandod and one or two of the more struggling farmers and that is it.

There is no such place as Llandod, unless it is an Englishman's comic view of a Welsh village.

Not sure the LibDems have much to brag about in Powys. We have not forgotten Lembit Opik or William Powell or Mick Bates.

isam

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

FPT.

Cyclefree said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Is this the man to lead the Leavers into their promised land?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/04/29/nigel-farage-fire-claiming-oldham-divided-society-split-along-racial-lines-9333501/

lol

Roger be honest, you dont actually know where Oldham is do you ?

That wasn't a geographical question. I just thought it interesting that we've now got clear proof he's a reincarnation of Enoch Powell and to days Tories are flocking to him like bees around a honey pot. It surely tells you something?

Yes it does. None of it good for the Tories.

......and 40 years after we thought we'd put this kind of thing behind us for good it's alive and kicking and living in Leaver-Land

after 15 years I thought we were leaving all the suppress uncomfortable issues meme behind us. Irresepective of whether you like the man or not ( not my type ) what happens if he's got a point ?

But he doesn't have a point. If two communities like to live in areas with people they feel more affinity with why shouldn't they? Why didn't he talk about Brooklyn with their Hasidic community or Golders Green or Prestwich in Manchester? Whole areas with almost 100% Jewish communities. It's called living in a free country.

My flat in Soho is opposite the Admiral Duncan. One night some years ago there was a doorman outside who told me I couldn't come in. 'Gays only I'm afraid'. I told him I lived opposite and I was meeting someone. 'Is he gay?' he asked. 'I don't think so' I said. 'Well he won't have got in then' he replied

Just as I was about to kick up a fuss he said 'Listen I'm really sorry but we're turning this into a gay pub so we're keeping straights out for a month and by then it'll be gay and we'll let anyone in'. 'Fair enough' I said and that was that. Sure enough the restriction stopped and it's been a 'gay pub' ever since. Interestingly Soho has always been as multi cultural as anywhere in the land but even there they can choose who they want to mix with.

What about if the community that was there first doesn’t want to live in one that is split in two?