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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why it’s going to be harder than many think to view the Euros as a 2nd Brexit referendum

The above chart is from some new polling issued by YouGov this morning which tries to find out how voters view each party’s stance on brexit. Apart from Farage’s Brexit party some of the answers are quite extraordinary and suggest that the parties are not getting over their positions as strongly as they might be.

Read the full story here

numbertwelve

I do worry about the 21% who don’t think that The Brexit Party is pro Brexit.

FrancisUrquhart

Extinction Rebellion has released a statement following its meeting with John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, this morning. Sue Hayman, the shadow environment secretary, was also there, and the XR team also briefly met Jeremy Corbyn.

Who is actually in charge of the Labour Party? Answers on a postcode....

RobD

numbertwelve said:

I do worry about the 21% who don’t think that The Brexit Party is pro Brexit.

Tut, clearly you aren’t numbertwelve

RobD

3% think the Brexit party is anti-Brexit? Interesting!

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

3% think the Brexit party is anti-Brexit? Interesting!

Give them a break, they were probably recovering from being abducted by aliens and anally probed the night before....

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

The main reason it won't be viewed as a second referendum is because the 'wrong' side is in danger of winning for a second time.

If the CUKs were on 30-35% and ahead of the rest, it'd be a strong sign of public support to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

3% think the Brexit party is anti-Brexit? Interesting!

Give them a break, they were probably recovering from being abducted by aliens and anally probed the night before....

To each their own, I suppose

DecrepitJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

The main reason it won't be viewed as a second referendum is because the 'wrong' side is in danger of winning for a second time.

If the CUKs were on 30-35% and ahead of the rest, it'd be a strong sign of public support to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU.

If CUK was minimally competent, voters might have a clue what they stand for. Since they are not, all voters can go on is the name, and Change does not imply anti-Brexit and TIG surely means they must be pro-Brexit (ask Ukip what I stands for). Muppets, the lot of them.

OblitusSumMe

RobD said:

3% think the Brexit party is anti-Brexit? Interesting!

Probably some overlap with the people who think leaving without a deal is the same as remaining.

Pulpstar

Only 38% see CHUK as anti-Brexit !

RobD

Pulpstar said:

38% see CHUK as anti-Brexit !

The most abysmal launch for any political party in the history of political parties?

OblitusSumMe

You could multiply each party's share of the vote by these results to create a pretty good Referendum proxy, albeit with a large don't know portion, and some uncertainty (people who vote Labour might think it is anti-Brexit more than the people who don't vote Labour because it isn't anti-Brexit).

Also, if the parties are successful in defining their Brexit stance more clearly that could lead to some large swings in support.

williamglenn

FPT

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."

*Any other EU leader will do the job though.

Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective

Because it was a bluff and was never a viable option.

glw

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

The main reason it won't be viewed as a second referendum is because the 'wrong' side is in danger of winning for a second time.

If the CUKs were on 30-35% and ahead of the rest, it'd be a strong sign of public support to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU.

If CUK was minimally competent, voters might have a clue what they stand for. Since they are not, all voters can go on is the name, and Change does not imply anti-Brexit and TIG surely means they must be pro-Brexit (ask Ukip what I stands for). Muppets, the lot of them.

Really they should be No Change UK - The Not Independent Group.
Or just NCUK-TNIG to keep it nice and simple.

williamglenn

glw said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

The main reason it won't be viewed as a second referendum is because the 'wrong' side is in danger of winning for a second time.

If the CUKs were on 30-35% and ahead of the rest, it'd be a strong sign of public support to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU.

If CUK was minimally competent, voters might have a clue what they stand for. Since they are not, all voters can go on is the name, and Change does not imply anti-Brexit and TIG surely means they must be pro-Brexit (ask Ukip what I stands for). Muppets, the lot of them.

Really they should be No Change UK - The Not Independent Group.
Or just NCUK-TNIG to keep it nice and simple.

The Artists Formally Known as TIG

TrèsDifficile

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."

*Any other EU leader will do the job though.

Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective

Because it was a bluff and was never a viable option.

Has Macron confirmed that to you?

williamglenn

TrèsDifficile said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."

*Any other EU leader will do the job though.

Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective

Because it was a bluff and was never a viable option.

Has Macron confirmed that to you?

That's a completely separate point. The UK is not seriously preparing for No Deal.

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

The main reason it won't be viewed as a second referendum is because the 'wrong' side is in danger of winning for a second time.

If the CUKs were on 30-35% and ahead of the rest, it'd be a strong sign of public support to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU.

Nail hit on head.

thecommissioner

The elections will be a reasonable guide towards the strength of feeling within the country, and the various options that are available.

Hard Brexit (EFDD/ENF) , May's softish Tory Brexit (EPP), Corbyn's even softer Customs Union Brexit (S & D), Remain UK with CUK, Lib Dems (ALDE) and the Greens (GREENS) and "Leave UK-stay EU" Sinn Fein/SNP/Plaid.

There is also the impact and influence the result will generate within the EU parliament and as a signal to the EU Council.

The result will be read in conjunction with others from across the EU.

AlastairMeeks

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Foxy

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."

*Any other EU leader will do the job though.

Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective

Because it was a bluff and was never a viable option.

Or to put it in mime...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1122837292211527680?s=19

AmpfieldAndy

“There is widespread confusion on where each party stands” - certainly true of the Tories and Labour but is itself a massive understatement. Both parties appear utterly clueless. To misquote. Churchill - never have so many said so much to accomplish so little. HoC is a risible talking shop that has made Britain an international laughing stock and which MPs on both sides of the debate are to blame.

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

tlg86

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Is it possible that we vote on the Thursday and the WA is voted through that night or on the Friday and the votes cast never get counted?

isam

Should I have heard of him?

https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123176936665243648?s=21

Pulpstar

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Is it possible that we vote on the Thursday and the WA is voted through that night or on the Friday and the votes cast never get counted?

Odds against.

RobD

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

Any possibility that all three get zero seats? That would certainly be an enjoyable outcome.

AmpfieldAndy

thecommissioner said:

The elections will be a reasonable guide towards the strength of feeling within the country, and the various options that are available.

Hard Brexit (EFDD/ENF) , May's softish Tory Brexit (EPP), Corbyn's even softer Customs Union Brexit (S & D), Remain UK with CUK, Lib Dems (ALDE) and the Greens (GREENS) and "Leave UK-stay EU" Sinn Fein/SNP/Plaid.

There is also the impact and influence the result will generate within the EU parliament and as a signal to the EU Council.

The result will be read in conjunction with others from across the EU.

Majority of Tory MPs are pro Remain. Majority of Tory members are pro Leave. Those who vote Tory in the Euro elections will hardly be voting for May’s deal. Labour doesn’t have any kind of coherent position on Brexit so those who vote Labour are hardly voting for May’s deal plus a CU.

Morris_Dancer

F1: I'm going to ponder this a bit, but I'm contemplating backing Verstappen at 34 each way (third the odds top 2) for the title.

He's more or less tied with the two Ferraris. Leclerc's had misfortune and Mercedes have done well but everything else is on course. Verstappen is de facto number one at Red Bull, who typically develop very well (the last couple of years have seen them competitive for wins in the latter half of the year, when it's too late for the top spot). And he's a lot closer at this stage this year than he was the previous season.

Still odds against. But if I do bet on this it'll be before Spain, when the circuit may well favour him, as it did in 2016. Passing is very tricky.

Pulpstar

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

Any possibility that all three get zero seats? That would certainly be an enjoyable outcome.

'Remainers too thick to understand D'Hondt'...

AmpfieldAndy

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."

*Any other EU leader will do the job though.

Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective

Because it was a bluff and was never a viable option.

Of course it’s a viable option. Always has been. May is simply looking to rule it out to coerce more of her MPs into supporting her execrable deal.

kinabalu

Sounds like Remainers getting their excuses in early.

thecommissioner

AmpfieldAndy said:

Majority of Tory MPs are pro Remain. Majority of Tory members are pro Leave. Those who vote Tory in the Euro elections will hardly be voting for May’s deal. Labour doesn’t have any kind of coherent position on Brexit so those who vote Labour are hardly voting for May’s deal plus a CU.

Their votes will be cited as endorsing a particular approach, whether they feel they are or not.

Stark_Dawning

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

What might hamper ChUK in that regard is that Leavers tend to loathe every politician other than Farage. In contrast, Tory Remainers might have some sympathy for May and her plight while Labour Remainers think Corbyn's a breath of socialist fresh air. So the rate of defection might not be so pronounced.

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

Any possibility that all three get zero seats? That would certainly be an enjoyable outcome.

'Remainers too thick to understand D'Hondt'...

Remainer Anthem: Ry Cooder's "D'Hondt mess up a good thing...."

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mark, for a moment I thought you were comparing the Remainer strategy with Bioware's multiplayer catastrophe...

kinabalu

OblitusSumMe said:

Probably some overlap with the people who think leaving without a deal is the same as remaining.

There is also a hard core who think that we left on 24 June 2016.

A view that has much to commend it.

david_herdson

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

isam

AmpfieldAndy said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Is anyone else struck by how little the government has progressed Brexit since the flextension. They have said/done nothing. Feels more like they are broken than a plan behind the scenes. Worrying.

It needs Macron* to say "No more extensions from me. October 31st 2019 is the date by which the UK Govt. must get its shit together - or they will exit on WTO terms. We are using that time to prepare further. I have no idea how the UK is using the time..."

*Any other EU leader will do the job though.

Can you explain why, with the extension, the U.K. government put WTO preparations on hold? Genuine question: I just don’t understand it from any perspective

Because it was a bluff and was never a viable option.

Of course it’s a viable option. Always has been. May is simply looking to rule it out to coerce more of her MPs into supporting her execrable deal.

The Brexit Party have replaced No Deal as the strict headmaster the schoolchildren we have as MPs thought they’d got rid of

OldKingCole

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

david_herdson

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

The Remain-supporting public will need to notice them first. How's that going to happen?

Farage can point to current polling to demand his share of airtime (and, more debateably, that his outfit is the more legitimate successor to UKIP-2014 than UKIP-2019 is). What do ChUK have going for them? Polls that point to at best 1 or 2 MEPs, deposit-losing shares for Westminster and no relevant electoral history. They will simply be cut out of the debate.

MarqueeMark

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

It's not quite what Remainers would have us believe - that Remain is actually the Coalition of Stoopid.....

AmpfieldAndy

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Majority of Tory MPs are pro Remain. Majority of Tory members are pro Leave. Those who vote Tory in the Euro elections will hardly be voting for May’s deal. Labour doesn’t have any kind of coherent position on Brexit so those who vote Labour are hardly voting for May’s deal plus a CU.

Their votes will be cited as endorsing a particular approach, whether they feel they are or not.

Not at all. Hannan is on the Tory Euro MPs list in the South East and he thinks May’s deal has no merit. People will interpret the euro elections based on the views they currently have. The votes themselves will make no difference.

brokenwheel

I’m more confused by the 17% of Conservative VI and 15% of Labour VI who still intend to vote for these parties in the EP election despite admitting to not knowing what their positions are...

I assume this is the rosette on a donkey vote?

Morris_Dancer

It's possible, though I suspect odds against, Watson could lead a significant number of Labour MPs to jump ship if they get tired of Corbyn's fence-sitting. That would, overnight, transform the fortunes of CUK.

But I don't think it'll happen.

Sunil_Prasannan

For old time's sake:

LEAVE 48%
REMAIN 52%

MarqueeMark

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

Deservedly so. They have shown no coherent reason to even be memorable.

Sunil_Prasannan

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

Any possibility that all three get zero seats? That would certainly be an enjoyable outcome.

'Remainers too thick to understand D'Hondt'...

Remainer Anthem: Ry Cooder's "D'Hondt mess up a good thing...."

D'Hondt Leave me this way!

TrèsDifficile

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

The LDs may have "had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades", but it might not have always been obvious.

Here's Vince in Nov 2007 "Tomorrow the Liberal Democrats will table an amendment to the Government’s parliamentary motion proposing the Queen’s Speech. Our amendment calls for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union." https://www.libdemvoice.org/vince-cable-on-european-referendum-1609.html

In Sep 2016 "Vince Cable has condemned Tim Farron's plans to demand a second referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union.

The former business secretary said the party’s position to hold another vote on the Brexit deal secured by Theresa May “raises a lot of fundamental problems” and was not a “panacea to anything”.

Speaking at a fringe event at the Lib Dem conference in Brighton, Sir Vince said it is “disrespectful” to voters and “politically counter-productive” to call for a second vote." https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/vince-cable/news/79094/vince-cable-hits-out-tim-farrons

They're not exactly consistent.

NickPalmer

OldKingCole said:

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I think ChUK will do OK in the Euros in terms of vote share (say 9-10%) , and will get a few European seats. But strategically it's hard to see that as being more than a short-term peak. Their best bet thereafter would be to win a by-election - which sounds a tall order.

Foxy

david_herdson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

The Remain-supporting public will need to notice them first. How's that going to happen?

Farage can point to current polling to demand his share of airtime (and, more debateably, that his outfit is the more legitimate successor to UKIP-2014 than UKIP-2019 is). What do ChUK have going for them? Polls that point to at best 1 or 2 MEPs, deposit-losing shares for Westminster and no relevant electoral history. They will simply be cut out of the debate.

CHUK have their support mostly in London, SE and SW England, less so outside so likely to have 3 MEPs. They may well outpoll the Conservatives in London.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1123165342593892352?s=19

I disagree by the way on Remain tactical voting.

https://twitter.com/JoeOttenX/status/1123216780590223360?s=19

brokenwheel

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

Any possibility that all three get zero seats? That would certainly be an enjoyable outcome.

'Remainers too thick to understand D'Hondt'...

Remainer Anthem: Ry Cooder's "D'Hondt mess up a good thing...."

D'Hondt Leave me this way!

D’Hondt, D’Hondt EU want me?

david_herdson

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

It would vary, I think?

In constituency like the North East (3 MEPs), Remain voters should back a single party, otherwise they get no MEPs; in somewhere like Yorkshire (6 MEPs), they should split their votes to ensure that with 10%, they get one for each; in the South East (10 MEPs), they'd probably be better unifying again, which would give them a to pick up a fourth MEP.

OldKingCole

TrèsDifficile said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

The LDs may have "had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades", but it might not have always been obvious.

Here's Vince in Nov 2007 "Tomorrow the Liberal Democrats will table an amendment to the Government’s parliamentary motion proposing the Queen’s Speech. Our amendment calls for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union." https://www.libdemvoice.org/vince-cable-on-european-referendum-1609.html

In Sep 2016 "Vince Cable has condemned Tim Farron's plans to demand a second referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union.

The former business secretary said the party’s position to hold another vote on the Brexit deal secured by Theresa May “raises a lot of fundamental problems” and was not a “panacea to anything”.

Speaking at a fringe event at the Lib Dem conference in Brighton, Sir Vince said it is “disrespectful” to voters and “politically counter-productive” to call for a second vote." https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/vince-cable/news/79094/vince-cable-hits-out-tim-farrons

They're not exactly consistent.

When the facts change.......

RobD

OldKingCole said:

TrèsDifficile said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

The LDs may have "had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades", but it might not have always been obvious.

Here's Vince in Nov 2007 "Tomorrow the Liberal Democrats will table an amendment to the Government’s parliamentary motion proposing the Queen’s Speech. Our amendment calls for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union." https://www.libdemvoice.org/vince-cable-on-european-referendum-1609.html

In Sep 2016 "Vince Cable has condemned Tim Farron's plans to demand a second referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union.

The former business secretary said the party’s position to hold another vote on the Brexit deal secured by Theresa May “raises a lot of fundamental problems” and was not a “panacea to anything”.

Speaking at a fringe event at the Lib Dem conference in Brighton, Sir Vince said it is “disrespectful” to voters and “politically counter-productive” to call for a second vote." https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/vince-cable/news/79094/vince-cable-hits-out-tim-farrons

They're not exactly consistent.

When the facts change.......

Nothing has changed (quite literally).

dixiedean

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

It would vary, I think?

In constituency like the North East (3 MEPs), Remain voters should back a single party, otherwise they get no MEPs; in somewhere like Yorkshire (6 MEPs), they should split their votes to ensure that with 10%, they get one for each; in the South East (10 MEPs), they'd probably be better unifying again, which would give them a to pick up a fourth MEP.

In the NE, it is a question of whether it splits 2-1 Labour over UKIP, like last time, or 2-1 Brexit over Labour. It is difficult to see even a united Remain option getting a seat up here. There is precious little LD vote anywhere save Berwick. 2010 Redcar was a special case.

kinabalu

brokenwheel said:

D’Hondt, D’Hondt EU want me?

Hey EU, D'Hondt bother me, Hey EU, D'Hondt bother me.

I can tell if I kissed EU I may not ...

(I will collect my scarf and bobble hat).

SandyRentool

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

Any possibility that all three get zero seats? That would certainly be an enjoyable outcome.

'Remainers too thick to understand D'Hondt'...

Remainer Anthem: Ry Cooder's "D'Hondt mess up a good thing...."

D'Hondt Leave me this way!

For those Remainer parties all chasing the same voters:

D'Hondt stand so close to me.

david_herdson

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I agree. Quite possibly, well before it.

Sean_F

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

It would vary, I think?

In constituency like the North East (3 MEPs), Remain voters should back a single party, otherwise they get no MEPs; in somewhere like Yorkshire (6 MEPs), they should split their votes to ensure that with 10%, they get one for each; in the South East (10 MEPs), they'd probably be better unifying again, which would give them a to pick up a fourth MEP.

I was thinking in general terms, but you're right, at regional level.

TBH, I don't think there's any prospect of a continuity Remain party winning a seat in the North East. It does have to be Labour, there, if you oppose Brexit.

Foxy

Sean_F said:

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

It would vary, I think?

In constituency like the North East (3 MEPs), Remain voters should back a single party, otherwise they get no MEPs; in somewhere like Yorkshire (6 MEPs), they should split their votes to ensure that with 10%, they get one for each; in the South East (10 MEPs), they'd probably be better unifying again, which would give them a to pick up a fourth MEP.

I was thinking in general terms, but you're right, at regional level.

TBH, I don't think there's any prospect of a continuity Remain party winning a seat in the North East. It does have to be Labour, there, if you oppose Brexit.

Of the Lab regional lists all the top placed have advocated a second referendum, apart from the East Midlands.

thecommissioner

AmpfieldAndy said:

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Majority of Tory MPs are pro Remain. Majority of Tory members are pro Leave. Those who vote Tory in the Euro elections will hardly be voting for May’s deal. Labour doesn’t have any kind of coherent position on Brexit so those who vote Labour are hardly voting for May’s deal plus a CU.

Their votes will be cited as endorsing a particular approach, whether they feel they are or not.

Not at all. Hannan is on the Tory Euro MPs list in the South East and he thinks May’s deal has no merit.

Yet, she's still there and so is her deal. There is no other Tory policy.

david_herdson

Morris_Dancer said:

It's possible, though I suspect odds against, Watson could lead a significant number of Labour MPs to jump ship if they get tired of Corbyn's fence-sitting. That would, overnight, transform the fortunes of CUK.

But I don't think it'll happen.

If it was going to happen, it would have done so already.

If Watson & co do jump ship, it'd make far more sense to set up their own vehicle properly and then invite the Change MPs to join or ally.

justin124

brokenwheel said:

I’m more confused by the 17% of Conservative VI and 15% of Labour VI who still intend to vote for these parties in the EP election despite admitting to not knowing what their positions are...

I assume this is the rosette on a donkey vote?

But it will also be the case that many people intend to vote Labour or Tory regardless of their positions in relation to Brexit - ie there are other issues which override it!

Harris_Tweed

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I think ChUK will do OK in the Euros in terms of vote share (say 9-10%) , and will get a few European seats. But strategically it's hard to see that as being more than a short-term peak. Their best bet thereafter would be to win a by-election - which sounds a tall order.

They'll probably do the LDs some good if they burst onto the scene then die off (or at least aren't seen as a credible force). I should imagine the creation of CHUK has awakened the desire for something different from some floaters. A lot of that group probably still had LibDems in detention over the coalition.. but they may now be preferable to marching back down the hill to their uncomfortable main party choice.

Foxy

david_herdson said:

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I agree. Quite possibly, well before it.

It wouldn't be too unexpected for CHUK to outpoll the Brexit Party in London. They are in touching distance.

https://twitter.com/Dobablo/status/1123231591201955840?s=19

And Con could come sixth.

RobD

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I agree. Quite possibly, well before it.

It wouldn't be too unexpected for CHUK to outpoll the Brexit Party in London. They are in touching distance.

https://twitter.com/Dobablo/status/1123231591201955840?s=19

Shouldn’t they be miles ahead, not within touching distance?

kinabalu

david_herdson said:

In constituency like the North East (3 MEPs), Remain voters should back a single party, otherwise they get no MEPs; in somewhere like Yorkshire (6 MEPs), they should split their votes to ensure that with 10%, they get one for each; in the South East (10 MEPs), they'd probably be better unifying again, which would give them a to pick up a fourth MEP.

Sounds correct. Which seems a bit of a complicated palaver at first sight - but given that these are the good folk who might one day soon be tasked with combing through and understanding the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration, weighing up the merits and demerits of same, and voting Yes or No as to whether on balance the UK is likely to net gain or net lose from their ratification, one must presume that they will be up to it.

Foxy

RobD said:

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I agree. Quite possibly, well before it.

It wouldn't be too unexpected for CHUK to outpoll the Brexit Party in London. They are in touching distance.

https://twitter.com/Dobablo/status/1123231591201955840?s=19

Shouldn’t they be miles ahead, not within touching distance?

4 weeks to go...

AmpfieldAndy

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Majority of Tory MPs are pro Remain. Majority of Tory members are pro Leave. Those who vote Tory in the Euro elections will hardly be voting for May’s deal. Labour doesn’t have any kind of coherent position on Brexit so those who vote Labour are hardly voting for May’s deal plus a CU.

Their votes will be cited as endorsing a particular approach, whether they feel they are or not.

Not at all. Hannan is on the Tory Euro MPs list in the South East and he thinks May’s deal has no merit.

Yet, she's still there and so is her deal. There is no other Tory policy.

Her deal has been rejected 3 times. Voting Tory with May playing Russian roulette over her deal is not an endorsement of it.

Foxy

Harris_Tweed said:

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I think ChUK will do OK in the Euros in terms of vote share (say 9-10%) , and will get a few European seats. But strategically it's hard to see that as being more than a short-term peak. Their best bet thereafter would be to win a by-election - which sounds a tall order.

They'll probably do the LDs some good if they burst onto the scene then die off (or at least aren't seen as a credible force). I should imagine the creation of CHUK has awakened the desire for something different from some floaters. A lot of that group probably still had LibDems in detention over the coalition.. but they may now be preferable to marching back down the hill to their uncomfortable main party choice.

I see CHUK more as a breakaway pro EU Conservative party, than a direct LD rival.

justin124

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I agree. Quite possibly, well before it.

It wouldn't be too unexpected for CHUK to outpoll the Brexit Party in London. They are in touching distance.

https://twitter.com/Dobablo/status/1123231591201955840?s=19

Shouldn’t they be miles ahead, not within touching distance?

4 weeks to go...

Barely 3 weeks actually - and a significant number will vote by post in the next 10 days.

thecommissioner

AmpfieldAndy said:

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Majority of Tory MPs are pro Remain. Majority of Tory members are pro Leave. Those who vote Tory in the Euro elections will hardly be voting for May’s deal. Labour doesn’t have any kind of coherent position on Brexit so those who vote Labour are hardly voting for May’s deal plus a CU.

Their votes will be cited as endorsing a particular approach, whether they feel they are or not.

Not at all. Hannan is on the Tory Euro MPs list in the South East and he thinks May’s deal has no merit.

Yet, she's still there and so is her deal. There is no other Tory policy.

Her deal has been rejected 3 times. Voting Tory with May playing Russian roulette over her deal is not an endorsement of it.

Her deal has been rejected by parliament, not by the Tories.

What is the Tory position if it isn't May's Deal?

RobD

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I agree. Quite possibly, well before it.

It wouldn't be too unexpected for CHUK to outpoll the Brexit Party in London. They are in touching distance.

https://twitter.com/Dobablo/status/1123231591201955840?s=19

Shouldn’t they be miles ahead, not within touching distance?

4 weeks to go...

Who knows, perhaps even more people will think change implies Brexit? They are going to get little airtime during the campaign proper.

david_herdson

Sean_F said:

david_herdson said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions such as this one. There's just under a month to go to the election date (when is the last date that it could be called off, by the way?).

And if CHUK are polling at 10% and only 38% know what their position on Brexit is, that gives them plenty of upside yet, especially if the Remain-supporting public decides that they are the vehicle of choice for this election.

Remain voters either have to get CHUK, the Lib Dems, and Greens all on 10%+ to maximise representation (probably at the expense of Labour) or back one party in droves to deliver an unambiguous message.

It would vary, I think?

In constituency like the North East (3 MEPs), Remain voters should back a single party, otherwise they get no MEPs; in somewhere like Yorkshire (6 MEPs), they should split their votes to ensure that with 10%, they get one for each; in the South East (10 MEPs), they'd probably be better unifying again, which would give them a to pick up a fourth MEP.

I was thinking in general terms, but you're right, at regional level.

TBH, I don't think there's any prospect of a continuity Remain party winning a seat in the North East. It does have to be Labour, there, if you oppose Brexit.

In theory, if Grn+LD+Chg could score 20% in the NE then they should have been able to gain a seat, as long as they beat Con and bettered half the score of Brexit or Lab.

However, it's doubtful whether they could even reach that modest total - LD+Grn did so in 2009 (22.4%), but slumped to 11.1% in 2014.

MikeL

The main thing these numbers show is what so many people on this forum constantly forget - ie that most people do not follow politics closely - and in turn that most of the time (*) most people vote on their overall general impression of the parties / leaders - not on the basis of any specific policies.

(*) Con voters deserting over Brexit would be an obvious exception.

FrancisUrquhart

Reuters reporting shots - apparently live rounds - fired near the La Carlota military base

Gunshots were heard at a rally led by Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó outside a Caracas air base, witnesses said, after Guaidó said earlier that troops had joined him to oust President Nicolás Maduro.

The Reuters witnesses said men in military uniform, who were accompanying Guaidó at the scene, were exchanging fire with soldiers acting in support of Maduro. The witnesses said the shots appeared to be live rounds.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/apr/30/venezuela-opposition-leader-juan-guaido-claims-coup-underway-live-news

isam

I dislike ChUK so much it is hard to be objective, so maybe I’m over compensating by saying it’s pretty good for them to be beating the other two parties of their ilk so easily, no?

Pulpstar

justin124 said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I agree. Quite possibly, well before it.

It wouldn't be too unexpected for CHUK to outpoll the Brexit Party in London. They are in touching distance.

https://twitter.com/Dobablo/status/1123231591201955840?s=19

Shouldn’t they be miles ahead, not within touching distance?

4 weeks to go...

Barely 3 weeks actually - and a significant number will vote by post in the next 10 days.

Opinion polls past a certain point are partial exit polls.

justin124

If the EU elections take place, I shall vote Labour on 23rd May - but my voting intention will in no way be influenced by Brexit!

RobD

justin124 said:

If the EU elections take place, I shall vote Labour on 23rd May - but my voting intention will in no way be influenced by Brexit!

I am truly shocked!

FrancisUrquhart

Hackers have broken into an internet infrastructure firm that provides services to dozens of the world’s largest and most valuable companies, including Oracle, Volkswagen, Airbus, and many more as part of an extortion attempt, Motherboard has learned. The attackers have also threatened to release data from all of those companies, according to a website seemingly set up by the hackers to distribute the stolen material.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/d3np4y/hackers-steal-ransom-citycomp-airbus-volkswagen-oracle-valuable-companies

FrancisUrquhart

Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment

Europe’s biggest phone company identified hidden backdoors in the software that could have given Huawei unauthorized access to the carrier’s fixed-line network in Italy, a system that provides internet service to millions of homes and businesses, according to Vodafone’s security briefing documents from 2009 and 2011 seen by Bloomberg, as well as people involved in the situation.

Vodafone asked Huawei to remove backdoors in home internet routers in 2011 and received assurances from the supplier that the issues were fixed, but further testing revealed that the security vulnerabilities remained, the documents show. Vodafone also identified backdoors in parts of its fixed-access network known as optical service nodes, which are responsible for transporting internet traffic over optical fibers, and other parts called broadband network gateways, which handle subscriber authentication and access to the internet, the people said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment?srnd=premium-asia

And yet still the government are going to let them provide infrastructure.

AmpfieldAndy

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

thecommissioner said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Majority of Tory MPs are pro Remain. Majority of Tory members are pro Leave. Those who vote Tory in the Euro elections will hardly be voting for May’s deal. Labour doesn’t have any kind of coherent position on Brexit so those who vote Labour are hardly voting for May’s deal plus a CU.

Their votes will be cited as endorsing a particular approach, whether they feel they are or not.

Not at all. Hannan is on the Tory Euro MPs list in the South East and he thinks May’s deal has no merit.

Yet, she's still there and so is her deal. There is no other Tory policy.

Her deal has been rejected 3 times. Voting Tory with May playing Russian roulette over her deal is not an endorsement of it.

Her deal has been rejected by parliament, not by the Tories.

What is the Tory position if it isn't May's Deal?

They don’t have a position. May has a position which her party, MPs and members, don’t endorse. Until she goes, the party won’t have a position. The position in the 2017 manifesto upon which MPs were elected, is no SM or CU. That’s not May’s deal.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment

Europe’s biggest phone company identified hidden backdoors in the software that could have given Huawei unauthorized access to the carrier’s fixed-line network in Italy, a system that provides internet service to millions of homes and businesses, according to Vodafone’s security briefing documents from 2009 and 2011 seen by Bloomberg, as well as people involved in the situation.

Vodafone asked Huawei to remove backdoors in home internet routers in 2011 and received assurances from the supplier that the issues were fixed, but further testing revealed that the security vulnerabilities remained, the documents show. Vodafone also identified backdoors in parts of its fixed-access network known as optical service nodes, which are responsible for transporting internet traffic over optical fibers, and other parts called broadband network gateways, which handle subscriber authentication and access to the internet, the people said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment?srnd=premium-asia

And yet still the government are going to let them provide infrastructure.

Do you know why they are doing his? Is there no UK telecom provider up to it?

FrancisUrquhart

justin124 said:

If the EU elections take place, I shall vote Labour on 23rd May - but my voting intention will in no way be influenced by Brexit!

And in other news, the Pope is still catholic.

Harris_Tweed

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

OldKingCole said:

david_herdson said:

It's a measure of the lack of effectiveness of all the Continuity Remain parties that none of them have much more than 50% of the public knowing that that's their position - and the only one that does (just) break that barrier is the largest and longest-established of them, which has had the strongest pro-EU voice among the mainstream parties for decades, so the fact that almost half the public don't know that the Lib Dems oppose Brexit is hardly anything to shout about, especially when top-side of 70% know that Farage's new outfit does (the power of an effective brand name).

FWIW, I think that part of the problem the LDs and ChUK have is not going all-out Revoke. Arguing for a second referendum is an ambiguous position if the public don't know where you're starting from and doesn't take it - as much of the political class does - as a synonym for Remain. It's also a process rather than a policy.

Of course, the big parties in the middle have their own problems, mainly stemming from their internal divisions and mixed messages / actions on actually delivering on Brexit.

However, the big parties have a lot of institutional inertia that works to their benefit. If ChUK don't make a breakthrough at the EP elections, I don't really see where they go other than either a merger with the Lib Dems (which might always have been their endgame but now will have to be completed from a position of weakness), or to fade away into nothingness.

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I agree. Quite possibly, well before it.

It wouldn't be too unexpected for CHUK to outpoll the Brexit Party in London. They are in touching distance.

https://twitter.com/Dobablo/status/1123231591201955840?s=19

And Con could come sixth.

Even if those poll results ended up being close to the final result, rounded percentages could put a question mark over one or two seats.

eg (and very "back of a fag packet"), Lab would be on the verge of a third seat if they were 28.499 and Green or LibDem were 9.501.

justin124

FrancisUrquhart said:

justin124 said:

If the EU elections take place, I shall vote Labour on 23rd May - but my voting intention will in no way be influenced by Brexit!

And in other news, the Pope is still catholic.

But at the General Election , I will spoil my ballot paper!

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment

Europe’s biggest phone company identified hidden backdoors in the software that could have given Huawei unauthorized access to the carrier’s fixed-line network in Italy, a system that provides internet service to millions of homes and businesses, according to Vodafone’s security briefing documents from 2009 and 2011 seen by Bloomberg, as well as people involved in the situation.

Vodafone asked Huawei to remove backdoors in home internet routers in 2011 and received assurances from the supplier that the issues were fixed, but further testing revealed that the security vulnerabilities remained, the documents show. Vodafone also identified backdoors in parts of its fixed-access network known as optical service nodes, which are responsible for transporting internet traffic over optical fibers, and other parts called broadband network gateways, which handle subscriber authentication and access to the internet, the people said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment?srnd=premium-asia

And yet still the government are going to let them provide infrastructure.

Do you know why they are doing his? Is there no UK telecom provider up to it?

Supposedly the only other provider (I believe Ericsson) are 18 months to 2 years from having the same equipment ready. However, even the security expert interviewed for Panorama said that even if Huawei aren't trying anything dodgy, their coding ability for the software / firmware is so bad that it is laughably bad on their products.

So we are willing to go with a company that may well be comprised and even if they aren't, the software side of their products is shit...

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment

Europe’s biggest phone company identified hidden backdoors in the software that could have given Huawei unauthorized access to the carrier’s fixed-line network in Italy, a system that provides internet service to millions of homes and businesses, according to Vodafone’s security briefing documents from 2009 and 2011 seen by Bloomberg, as well as people involved in the situation.

Vodafone asked Huawei to remove backdoors in home internet routers in 2011 and received assurances from the supplier that the issues were fixed, but further testing revealed that the security vulnerabilities remained, the documents show. Vodafone also identified backdoors in parts of its fixed-access network known as optical service nodes, which are responsible for transporting internet traffic over optical fibers, and other parts called broadband network gateways, which handle subscriber authentication and access to the internet, the people said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment?srnd=premium-asia

And yet still the government are going to let them provide infrastructure.

Do you know why they are doing his? Is there no UK telecom provider up to it?

Supposedly the only other provider (I believe Ericsson) are 18 months to 2 years from having the same equipment ready. However, even the security expert interviewed for Panorama said that even if Huawei aren't trying anything dodgy, their coding ability for the software / firmware is so bad that it is laughably bad on their products.

So we are willing to go with a company that may well be comprised and even if they aren't, the software side of their products is shit...

Two years longer until we get memes faster on our phones? Whatever will we do.

JonCisBack

This poll is at once hilarious and depressing. The ignorance on display ought to make us think twice about ever having any referendums ever again if this is the state of understanding which abounds amongst the populace despite wall to wall Brexit coverage for months on end.

But that's not really news... so i will content myself with laughing at Soubry and Umunna. Poor lambs

TOPPING

justin124 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

justin124 said:

If the EU elections take place, I shall vote Labour on 23rd May - but my voting intention will in no way be influenced by Brexit!

And in other news, the Pope is still catholic.

But at the General Election , I will spoil my ballot paper!

Sorry I've not followed this but is that because of Corbyn?

OldKingCole

Strikes me that here in Essex if I want Remain I'm better off voting Green, but I'm sure that doesn't apply if I look at the local elections across the East in total.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment

Europe’s biggest phone company identified hidden backdoors in the software that could have given Huawei unauthorized access to the carrier’s fixed-line network in Italy, a system that provides internet service to millions of homes and businesses, according to Vodafone’s security briefing documents from 2009 and 2011 seen by Bloomberg, as well as people involved in the situation.

Vodafone asked Huawei to remove backdoors in home internet routers in 2011 and received assurances from the supplier that the issues were fixed, but further testing revealed that the security vulnerabilities remained, the documents show. Vodafone also identified backdoors in parts of its fixed-access network known as optical service nodes, which are responsible for transporting internet traffic over optical fibers, and other parts called broadband network gateways, which handle subscriber authentication and access to the internet, the people said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment?srnd=premium-asia

And yet still the government are going to let them provide infrastructure.

Do you know why they are doing his? Is there no UK telecom provider up to it?

Supposedly the only other provider (I believe Ericsson) are 18 months to 2 years from having the same equipment ready. However, even the security expert interviewed for Panorama said that even if Huawei aren't trying anything dodgy, their coding ability for the software / firmware is so bad that it is laughably bad on their products.

So we are willing to go with a company that may well be comprised and even if they aren't, the software side of their products is shit...

Two years longer until we get memes faster on our phones? Whatever will we do.

No no...memes will be shortly banned under the new EU rules...so not even required for that.

Supposed 5G will usher in a new generation of IoT / mobile services.

Harris_Tweed

Foxy said:

Harris_Tweed said:

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I think ChUK will do OK in the Euros in terms of vote share (say 9-10%) , and will get a few European seats. But strategically it's hard to see that as being more than a short-term peak. Their best bet thereafter would be to win a by-election - which sounds a tall order.

They'll probably do the LDs some good if they burst onto the scene then die off (or at least aren't seen as a credible force). I should imagine the creation of CHUK has awakened the desire for something different from some floaters. A lot of that group probably still had LibDems in detention over the coalition.. but they may now be preferable to marching back down the hill to their uncomfortable main party choice.

I see CHUK more as a breakaway pro EU Conservative party, than a direct LD rival.

It'll be different things to different people.. less Brexity Tories.. less Corbyny Labour.. less invisible LibDems (which probably accounts for its muddled reception, by accident or design)

Whatever they are... if anyone in the middle is to succeed, they need to peel away some votes from the 40+% totals of Lab and Con at GE2017. I just think CHUK's formation may speed up the restoration of the centre-ground "none of the above" vote from 2015/2017. And if it then disappears, a new LD leader may be well-placed to sweep up.

AmpfieldAndy

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment

Europe’s biggest phone company identified hidden backdoors in the software that could have given Huawei unauthorized access to the carrier’s fixed-line network in Italy, a system that provides internet service to millions of homes and businesses, according to Vodafone’s security briefing documents from 2009 and 2011 seen by Bloomberg, as well as people involved in the situation.

Vodafone asked Huawei to remove backdoors in home internet routers in 2011 and received assurances from the supplier that the issues were fixed, but further testing revealed that the security vulnerabilities remained, the documents show. Vodafone also identified backdoors in parts of its fixed-access network known as optical service nodes, which are responsible for transporting internet traffic over optical fibers, and other parts called broadband network gateways, which handle subscriber authentication and access to the internet, the people said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment?srnd=premium-asia

And yet still the government are going to let them provide infrastructure.

Do you know why they are doing his? Is there no UK telecom provider up to it?

I assumed it was to keep relationships with China sweet to facilitate a trade deal. I could be way off but I find it inconceivable that no other telecom provider, UK or otherwise has the technology.

RobD

AmpfieldAndy said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment

Europe’s biggest phone company identified hidden backdoors in the software that could have given Huawei unauthorized access to the carrier’s fixed-line network in Italy, a system that provides internet service to millions of homes and businesses, according to Vodafone’s security briefing documents from 2009 and 2011 seen by Bloomberg, as well as people involved in the situation.

Vodafone asked Huawei to remove backdoors in home internet routers in 2011 and received assurances from the supplier that the issues were fixed, but further testing revealed that the security vulnerabilities remained, the documents show. Vodafone also identified backdoors in parts of its fixed-access network known as optical service nodes, which are responsible for transporting internet traffic over optical fibers, and other parts called broadband network gateways, which handle subscriber authentication and access to the internet, the people said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment?srnd=premium-asia

And yet still the government are going to let them provide infrastructure.

Do you know why they are doing his? Is there no UK telecom provider up to it?

I assumed it was to keep relationships with China sweet to facilitate a trade deal. I could be way off but I find it inconceivable that no other telecom provider, UK or otherwise has the technology.

Sounds like they don't have it ready now, so they may indeed be the only supplier.

tlg86

Some interesting differences between the view of remainers and (leavers):

Conservatives:

Pro-Brexit: 56 (23)
Anti-Brexit: 11 (40)
Neither: 18 (21)
Don't know: 15 (16)

Labour:

Pro-Brexit: 18 (7)
Anti-Brexit: 28 (61)
Neither: 30 (14)
Don't know: 24 (18)

Foxy

Harris_Tweed said:

Foxy said:

Harris_Tweed said:

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

I strongly suspect, Mr H, that ChUK will be little but a memory after the next GE!

I think ChUK will do OK in the Euros in terms of vote share (say 9-10%) , and will get a few European seats. But strategically it's hard to see that as being more than a short-term peak. Their best bet thereafter would be to win a by-election - which sounds a tall order.

They'll probably do the LDs some good if they burst onto the scene then die off (or at least aren't seen as a credible force). I should imagine the creation of CHUK has awakened the desire for something different from some floaters. A lot of that group probably still had LibDems in detention over the coalition.. but they may now be preferable to marching back down the hill to their uncomfortable main party choice.

I see CHUK more as a breakaway pro EU Conservative party, than a direct LD rival.

It'll be different things to different people.. less Brexity Tories.. less Corbyny Labour.. less invisible LibDems (which probably accounts for its muddled reception, by accident or design)

Whatever they are... if anyone in the middle is to succeed, they need to peel away some votes from the 40+% totals of Lab and Con at GE2017. I just think CHUK's formation may speed up the restoration of the centre-ground "none of the above" vote from 2015/2017. And if it then disappears, a new LD leader may be well-placed to sweep up.

It is all a moveable feast, but LDs are significantly more left wing than most CHUK, and while the majority of the MPs are ex Lab, the Leader is Ex Conservative, and the other defections such as former Tory MEPs and Stephen Dorrell are Europhile Conservatives. I can see the Heathite Tories will be a fertile seam to mine if a hard brexiterr soon succeeds May.

Verulamius

https://twitter.com/Dobablo/status/1123231591201955840?s=19

This is a good example of the ratios that d'hondt methodology requires.

The key ratios are L/B to determine the 8th seat (B wins on the rounded numbers as it is less than 3/2)

L/LD, L/G and B/LD and B/G.

If the former two ratios are over 3 then L gets its third seat before LD or G gets its first. Similarly the latter two ratios would give B its second seat before LD and G gets one if it exceeds 2.

Lots of variations of the result on small changes of the % votes.