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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What better from pages for TMay on the day of the big local el

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What better from pages for TMay on the day of the big local elections

The conventional wisdom is that you don’t want negative stories about your party to be making the headlines on the day of any elections. Everything is about turnout, particularly with the locals, and all efforts should be made to ensure that your base and your activists are out there enthusiastically going to the polls and getting out the vote.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Premier
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited May 2019
    PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
    I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @Freggles said:
    > PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
    > I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?

    The general approach is to take the set of numbers that most support the point you wish to make.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Interesting hypothesis OGH, but I’m not convinced May has that much guile. It’s the sort of stunt Osborne might have advocated (and usually backfired on him) but not May.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @Freggles said:
    > > PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
    > > I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
    >
    > The general approach is to take the set of numbers that most support the point you wish to make.

    lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    > @Freggles said:
    > PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
    > I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?

    Is your real Surname near the start or the end of the alphabet, also are you on your own or part of a slate ?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Firm and tough - after 2 years of weak and vacillating Brexit negotiations in which she has allowed the EU to walk all over her extracting myriad concessions for absolutely no quid pro quo ??? I think it will take a lot more than sacking Williamson on what appears circumstantial evidence to convey that kind of image. Fortunately, even she can’t last that long.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I would have thought that if you were to manage the timing then you'd be better off with a delay so that the sacking overshadowed coverage of the local election results and disrupted any attempt to use them to force her out.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then

    Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Very easy for Williamson to make that charge against her, that she did it for base political reasons, to save herself and that it hasn’t even worked. I don’t know how vengeful he is likely to be, whether he really is innocent or this is all for show but one sacking is not going to change the perception that she is weak, obstinate and lacking in any strategic or tactical sense.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
    >
    > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?

    Nah, She will sack Grayling and the Tories will win the Euros with a landslide.;)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
    >
    > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?

    If the Euro elections are only equally disastrous as the locals for the Tories then that would be a triumph for May.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > Firm and tough - after 2 years of weak and vacillating Brexit negotiations in which she has allowed the EU to walk all over her extracting myriad concessions for absolutely no quid pro quo ??? I think it will take a lot more than sacking Williamson on what appears circumstantial evidence to convey that kind of image. Fortunately, even she can’t last that long.

    She'll remain as long as Boris is seen as the successor.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    BTW best of luck to our very own @NickPalmer and @RochdalePioneers and any other PB’er standing today!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
    >
    > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?

    The euros are a lifetime away in the May cycle
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Hmm... local elections are about your core of supporters. I reckon many of them will have quite liked Williamson and his steady stream of Telegraph articles, sorry policy announcements. So I don't know if this will play all that well.

    From May's position though, to have kept Williamson on when it may well have leaked that he was the leak would have been suicidal loyalty to a man desperate for her job.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Amazing. The government in disarray but the biggest oaf proffering his wares to the media is Tom Watson.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited May 2019
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > Firm and tough - after 2 years of weak and vacillating Brexit negotiations in which she has allowed the EU to walk all over her extracting myriad concessions for absolutely no quid pro quo ??? I think it will take a lot more than sacking Williamson on what appears circumstantial evidence to convey that kind of image. Fortunately, even she can’t last that long.
    >
    > She'll remain as long as Boris is seen as the successor.

    Maybe but it’s only 8 months until she faces another VONC which she can’t possibly win as things stand now. I doubt it will come to that myself. A bad night tonight, bad Euro elections and whatever comes from the Brexit negotiations with Labour will be bad news for her - Deal or no deal. I think she’ll be gone before the Tory Party conference myself.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Just goes to show that all this pavement pounding is a load of bollocks if the sacking of a cabinet minister on the eve of the election can swing a few hundred seats back to the Tories.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    > @SquareRoot said:
    > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
    > >
    > > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
    >
    > Nah, She will sack Grayling and the Tories will win the Euros with a landslide.;)


    If only....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    > @AmpfieldAndy said:

    > Firm and tough - after 2 years of weak and vacillating Brexit negotiations in which she has allowed the EU to walk all over her extracting myriad concessions for absolutely no quid pro quo ??? I think it will take a lot more than sacking Williamson on what appears circumstantial evidence to convey that kind of image. Fortunately, even she can’t last that long.



    She'll remain as long as Boris is seen as the successor.

    They can't put off electing Boris forever.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Is this weird way of quoting permanent? If so, why doesn’t everyone use

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7561/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-what-better-from-pages-for-tmay-on-the-day-of-the-big-local-el#latest ?

    So much easier to use and clearer to read
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
    > >
    > > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
    >
    > If the Euro elections are only equally disastrous as the locals for the Tories then that would be a triumph for May.

    Don’t see it. Brexit Party votes will be votes the Tories need in a General Election. They are not going to come back with May and Hammond still running things.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    Is this weird way of quoting permanent? If so, why doesn’t everyone use

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7561/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-what-better-from-pages-for-tmay-on-the-day-of-the-big-local-el#latest ?

    So much easier to use and clearer to read

    It's not as pretty but it's more reliable if you're commenting regularly, I agree.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    isam said:

    Is this weird way of quoting permanent? If so, why doesn’t everyone use

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7561/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-what-better-from-pages-for-tmay-on-the-day-of-the-big-local-el#latest ?

    So much easier to use and clearer to read

    I am using, but don't like it. The standard web viewer is much easier to read (when Vanilla comments are working). iirc we are in the middle of one of their upgrades.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    > @dr_spyn said:

    > Galloway's last outing at Gorton was not overly successful.

    >

    > Some of Corbyn's followers might be tempted to vote for him, but might wonder why the old egotist wants to split the Labour vote.



    I don't think he will split much off.



    Peterborough looks like a Lab hold to me, astonishing in the circumstances.

    What is astonishing about it? Labour held it in the first place and the Tories are in free fall. Even without BP it looked good for labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    > @AmpfieldAndy said:

    > Firm and tough - after 2 years of weak and vacillating Brexit negotiations in which she has allowed the EU to walk all over her extracting myriad concessions for absolutely no quid pro quo ??? I think it will take a lot more than sacking Williamson on what appears circumstantial evidence to convey that kind of image. Fortunately, even she can’t last that long.



    She'll remain as long as Boris is seen as the successor.

    They can't put off electing Boris forever.
    They are going to try. But it will happen.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    > @Freggles said:

    > PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?

    > I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?



    The general approach is to take the set of numbers that most support the point you wish to make.

    "Winning here"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    > @AmpfieldAndy said:

    > > @Pulpstar said:

    > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then

    >

    > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?



    If the Euro elections are only equally disastrous as the locals for the Tories then that would be a triumph for May.

    Ha, yes. The locals look merely awful, the euros apocalyptically bad
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    > @AmpfieldAndy said:

    > Firm and tough - after 2 years of weak and vacillating Brexit negotiations in which she has allowed the EU to walk all over her extracting myriad concessions for absolutely no quid pro quo ??? I think it will take a lot more than sacking Williamson on what appears circumstantial evidence to convey that kind of image. Fortunately, even she can’t last that long.



    She'll remain as long as Boris is seen as the successor.

    Boris would be doing a better job than May is.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Either they pass her Deal, or she is going nowhere:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123658508610699264
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    In Leeds last year there were all-out elections to the 3-member wards following boundary changes. The third place winners' seats are up for election again today.

    I presume they've all been the hardest working councillors over the past 12 months.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, the Conservatives and Labour have both gone out of their way to test the loyalty of their voters at the upcoming elections. Given that in practice in most places the choice is between them and the Lib Dems, the results tonight look likely to be an unpopularity contest.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    A former Chief Whip now on the backbench with the biggest grievance issue with the sitting PM since Ted Heath.

    What could possibly go wrong?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Morning PB.

    Happy Local Elections Day - AKA Happy Evisceration Of The Conservative Party Day (Part One)

    :D
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2019
    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Quiet at the polling station
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Roger said:

    Amazing. The government in disarray but the biggest oaf proffering his wares to the media is Tom Watson.

    A bit too anti-anti-semitic for you, Rog?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Yes.

    We'll all hate them by the time they've finished.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Pulpstar said:

    Quiet at the polling station

    As they were crossing off my name I noticed that I was the first one on the page to be crossed off, and that nobody was crossed off on the two pages before the one my name appeared on. There must have been about 30 names on the sheet, so turnout at 8:15am can be estimated at just over 1%.

    I don't know if that is typical.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    FWIW, I wrote a brief piece on Huawei and why the company’s here to stay for one of our platforms a couple of months back. Basically, it owns the future:

    https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited May 2019
    > @Recidivist said:
    > Quiet at the polling station
    >
    > As they were crossing off my name I noticed that I was the first one on the page to be crossed off, and that nobody was crossed off on the two pages before the one my name appeared on. There must have been about 30 names on the sheet, so turnout at 8:15am can be estimated at just over 1%.
    >
    > I don't know if that is typical.

    Can't see why any Brexit-voting Conservative supporter (so that's around 70% of their voters) would turn out to these elections but Lab and Lib-Dem voters should be motivated as usual.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    GIN1138 said:

    > @Recidivist said:

    > Quiet at the polling station

    >

    > As they were crossing off my name I noticed that I was the first one on the page to be crossed off, and that nobody was crossed off on the two pages before the one my name appeared on. There must have been about 30 names on the sheet, so turnout at 8:15am can be estimated at just over 1%.

    >

    > I don't know if that is typical.



    Can't see why any Brexit-voting Conservative supporter (so that's around 70% of their voters) would turn out to these elections but Lab and Lib-Dem voters should be motivated as usual.

    Well there of plenty of that category around here, but they probably don't get up as early as me so it is a bit soon to say they are sitting the vote out. But you might be right.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @Recidivist said:
    > A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen
    >
    > https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064
    >
    >
    >
    > Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    >
    > Yes.
    >
    > We'll all hate them by the time they've finished.

    Why should they be the odd party out?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    > @Freggles said:
    > PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
    > I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?

    The sum of the vote shares of all the highest candidates?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @kle4 said:
    > Ha, yes. The locals look merely awful, the euros apocalyptically bad

    If the Tories were to pledge that all of their MEPs would refuse to take up their Parliament seats, Sinn Fein style, and also refuse to take any money, on the basis that we are definitely leaving, eventually, then it might help them in the Euro elections. They could challenge Farage and his band of gravy-train enthusiasts to do the same and it would demonstrate a determination to leave rather than to stay indefinitely.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    > @mwadams said:
    > > @Freggles said:
    > > PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
    > > I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
    >
    > The sum of the vote shares of all the highest candidates?

    That is, I think, the preferred method. In contrast the official results often provide a sum of all candidates of Party A over the sum of all votes, which effectively weights down parties with less than a full slate.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited May 2019
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.

    Edit: and that quote is quite a non-sequitor: "put principle of democracy above personal past" - what does that (even) mean?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1123859320511311877

    All is fine, no secrets...can this keeping running?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    > @kle4 said:

    > Ha, yes. The locals look merely awful, the euros apocalyptically bad



    If the Tories were to pledge that all of their MEPs would refuse to take up their Parliament seats, Sinn Fein style, and also refuse to take any money, on the basis that we are definitely leaving, eventually, then it might help them in the Euro elections. They could challenge Farage and his band of gravy-train enthusiasts to do the same and it would demonstrate a determination to leave rather than to stay indefinitely.

    Theresa May should have picked candidates who were pro her Deal and fought on a campaign of selling it to the public. Easy to forget that it is only game playing MPs who have been able to vote on it so far.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.
    Does she? She didn’t refer at all to the pro IRA candidates, and Otto English etc are suggesting she didn’t even know of them
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
    > >
    > > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
    >
    > The euros are a lifetime away in the May cycle

    The mayfly only has - at best - one day in which to achieve all it needs. One species - Dolania americana - has the shortest adult lifespan of any mayfly: the adult females of the species live for less than five minutes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.
    Does she? She didn’t refer at all to the pro IRA candidates, and Otto English etc are suggesting she didn’t even know of them
    OIC no she doesn't mention them. Perhaps that was important also.

    The Brexit Party - bringing communities together everywhere.

    btw are we the only two fuckers actually using the blockquote system properly?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited May 2019
    > @SouthamObserver said:
    > FWIW, I wrote a brief piece on Huawei and why the company’s here to stay for one of our platforms a couple of months back. Basically, it owns the future:
    >
    > https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay

    The problem the rest of the world has is that Huawei are the leaders in 5G and there is little chance that anyone else can catch up..

    Ironically I don't think the US has any suitable competitor unless they include Nokia / Ericsson as US rather than Scandinavian companies
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Is Claire Fox actually pro IRA?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    FWIW, I wrote a brief piece on Huawei and why the company’s here to stay for one of our platforms a couple of months back. Basically, it owns the future:



    https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay

    Thanks. Useful update. I had forgotten Nokia was still around in some technology spaces.

    The lack of 5G patents and technology from Western companies should be a wake up call on how we are running our own R&D systems.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.
    Does she? She didn’t refer at all to the pro IRA candidates, and Otto English etc are suggesting she didn’t even know of them
    OIC no she doesn't mention them. Perhaps that was important also.

    The Brexit Party - bringing communities together everywhere.

    btw are we the only two fuckers actually using the blockquote system properly?
    Are you doing it by using the vanilla site?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.
    Does she? She didn’t refer at all to the pro IRA candidates, and Otto English etc are suggesting she didn’t even know of them
    OIC no she doesn't mention them. Perhaps that was important also.

    The Brexit Party - bringing communities together everywhere.

    btw are we the only two fuckers actually using the blockquote system properly?
    I assumed everyone always used the system you and I do, maybe we are Betamax and everyone else is VHS!

    It seemed to me to be the point of The Brexit Party at this stage to be a collection of people who had only anger at the handling of Brexit in common, and any widely contrasting opinions were a positive example of that. This case could be a good selling point, or it could end in tears I guess
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    So farewell then
    Gavin Williamson

    Fireplace salesman and
    tory chickenhawk.

    You lied about Huawei
    And now it's the highway.

    A-ha!
    That was your catchphrase.

    EJ Thribb (17½)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Wife & I have just been to vote. No-one apart from the four poll-clerks in the room, although one man was going in as we came out.
    Very quiet, apparently, and clerk agreed with me that asking for ID (we're a 'trial' area) was a waste of time.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2019
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Is Claire Fox actually pro IRA?
    Well it seems she is or at least thought any means necessary for a united Ireland. The lady whose tweet I quoted, Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, was in the RCP too, and is on the London list alongside the Enniskillen campaigner
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited May 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.
    Does she? She didn’t refer at all to the pro IRA candidates, and Otto English etc are suggesting she didn’t even know of them
    OIC no she doesn't mention them. Perhaps that was important also.

    The Brexit Party - bringing communities together everywhere.

    btw are we the only two fuckers actually using the blockquote system properly?
    Are you doing it by using the vanilla site?
    Yep and cutting out all the extra quotes if necessary after the [open "<" brackets] blockquote class = "Quote" rel="Ishmael_Z" [close ">" brackets]
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @rottenborough said:
    > FWIW, I wrote a brief piece on Huawei and why the company’s here to stay for one of our platforms a couple of months back. Basically, it owns the future:
    >
    >
    >
    > https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay
    >
    > Thanks. Useful update. I had forgotten Nokia was still around in some technology spaces.
    >
    > The lack of 5G patents and technology from Western companies should be a wake up call on how we are running our own R&D systems.

    Who is we? Plessey? Racal? Marconi? British firms no longer exist or
    are at best shadows of their former selves. Our only choice is to buy
    foreign kit, whether with American or Chinese back doors.

    Support of native industries matters, as does support of R&D; we all
    remember SeanT contrasting China's massive research expenditure
    (and I guess we can now see it was not all about nicking Western
    technology) with George Osborne decimating our own.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.
    Does she? She didn’t refer at all to the pro IRA candidates, and Otto English etc are suggesting she didn’t even know of them
    OIC no she doesn't mention them. Perhaps that was important also.

    The Brexit Party - bringing communities together everywhere.

    btw are we the only two fuckers actually using the blockquote system properly?
    I assumed everyone always used the system you and I do, maybe we are Betamax and everyone else is VHS!

    It seemed to me to be the point of The Brexit Party at this stage to be a collection of people who had only anger at the handling of Brexit in common, and any widely contrasting opinions were a positive example of that. This case could be a good selling point, or it could end in tears I guess
    No it's a great selling point and looks like it is supplanting UKIP as the pro-Brexit pressure group.

    But given where we are and that MPs have so far refused to vote for Brexit I suppose we will find out whether the country feels strongly enough about it to make them the government.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    Pulpstar said:

    Quiet at the polling station

    As they were crossing off my name I noticed that I was the first one on the page to be crossed off, and that nobody was crossed off on the two pages before the one my name appeared on. There must have been about 30 names on the sheet, so turnout at 8:15am can be estimated at just over 1%.

    I don't know if that is typical.

    For the first time in 19 years of being able to vote, through all the local, Euro and general elections, I'm not going to in this election. There are no local pressing issues (to me) to make me vote on that basis - council, Conservative led, seems fine, I'm fairly happy with it and our ward is a mix of longstanding Labour and Conservative candidates. Nationally, votes will be interpreted as supporting party policy and with today's choice of Conservative, Labour and Socialist Labour (they still exist?) I'm not willing to support any. I'd turn out and vote LD, Green or a local independent for sure.

    In the Euros of course there is a much greater choice. Just submitted my postal vote application for that as I'm out of the country on 23rd May. Haven't decided where my vote is going, but I will certainly vote.

    On a more positive note, the Tour de Yorkshire's coming past our house today, time to put out the bunting!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    I don't agree with Mike (I usually do). The electorate isn't that sophisticated. They will just see another Tory bad news story. I think it is negative not positive.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    Has this been done? I can't decide whether Brexit has made otherwise intelligent people stupid, or it's just full of stupid people.

    https://twitter.com/mpc_1968/status/1123664946133381122
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited May 2019
    @AlastairMeeks said:

    "On topic, the Conservatives and Labour have both gone out of their way to test the loyalty of their voters at the upcoming elections. Given that in practice in most places the choice is between them and the Lib Dems, the results tonight look likely to be an unpopularity contest."

    *

    And now in reply here's me saying ...

    "Yes, it would appear so. Although there really is no good reason why the Brexit fault line in our politics should impact the local elections. Is there a Eurosceptic way to collect the bins? Not really. Or even to put them out. Can't think that Mark Francois does it any differently to, say, Heidi Allen. OK there might well be different sorts of waste in Mark's bin as compared to Heidi's, probably will be, but so what, why even get involved in speculation on pointless and essentially irrelevant matters such as that?"
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Is Claire Fox actually pro IRA?
    Well it seems she is or at least thought any means necessary for a united Ireland. The lady whose tweet I quoted, Alka Sehgal Cuthbert, was in the RCP too, and is on the London list alongside the Enniskillen campaigner
    I thought Fox's comments implied that freedom fighters or whatever you want to call them can do whatever they want to achieve their goals. I'd argue that murdering children won't do your cause much good, but so long as Fox considers it to be a case of all's fair in love and war - for all sides - then I can live with that. If, however, she thinks Irish Republicans are right and that they alone ought to be able to do whatever it takes to achieve their aims, well that would be unacceptable to me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    > @Selebian said:
    > Quiet at the polling station
    >
    > As they were crossing off my name I noticed that I was the first one on the page to be crossed off, and that nobody was crossed off on the two pages before the one my name appeared on. There must have been about 30 names on the sheet, so turnout at 8:15am can be estimated at just over 1%.
    >
    > I don't know if that is typical.
    >
    >
    >
    > For the first time in 19 years of being able to vote, through all the local, Euro and general elections, I'm not going to in this election. There are no local pressing issues (to me) to make me vote on that basis - council, Conservative led, seems fine, I'm fairly happy with it and our ward is a mix of longstanding Labour and Conservative candidates. Nationally, votes will be interpreted as supporting party policy and with today's choice of Conservative, Labour and Socialist Labour (they still exist?) I'm not willing to support any. I'd turn out and vote LD, Green or a local independent for sure.
    >
    > In the Euros of course there is a much greater choice. Just submitted my postal vote application for that as I'm out of the country on 23rd May. Haven't decided where my vote is going, but I will certainly vote.
    >
    > On a more positive note, the Tour de Yorkshire's coming past our house today, time to put out the bunting!

    Our turnout looked similar.
    Counting tonight, so should have a result quickly!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Is there no side of the argument that JRM cannot get on the wrong side of?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    FWIW, I wrote a brief piece on Huawei and why the company’s here to stay for one of our platforms a couple of months back. Basically, it owns the future:



    https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay

    That's an interesting article. I would say one thing, however: AIUI Huawei's ownership structure is rather opaque, and whilst the employees own the vast majority of the shares, that may only apply to profit-sharing and not control. Control may well lie with a council of workers - a union - and a question is who that council is, and who controls it.

    As far as I can tell, from Western eyes, it's a mess.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    The Conservatives are defending 4,900 seats. 260 are guaranteed. I expect they'll have just over 4,000 by this time tomorrow.

    In terms of NEV, I'd expect something like Labour 30%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 6%, UKIP 5%, Others 16%.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Just been down the polling station - placed my vote for Mr Sedwill to keep on running the country.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    Is there no side of the argument that JRM cannot get on the wrong side of?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720

    Golly: "Security correspondent Frank Gardner said the BBC had been told "more than one concerning issue" had been uncovered regarding Mr Williamson during the leak inquiry and not just the Huawei conversation." Which looks like a leak about the leak.

    Looking also at Kuenssberg's snidey headline "Gavin Williamson: Now he's told to 'go away and shut up'" and the article itself it seems the Beeb did not love Williamson.

    And still the oddest thing is Williamson saying that a "thorough and formal inquiry" would have "vindicated" him; why does he take it as read there is not going to be one? And why is he not clamouring for one?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Off-topic:

    I've just found some old draft posts of mine in Vanilla's interface. One of those was in the following thread from September 2013:

    "Suddenly politics has got exciting and harder to predict"

    Well, that was right. In fact, it feels like a different, more innocent world ... :)

    http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/641/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Is there no side of the argument that JRM cannot get on the wrong side of?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720

    JRM does have a point. The furore over the leak from this committee
    masks that there was no real secret leaked (if you have secretly decided
    to buy a Ford Focus, the car dealer will know, as will your neighbours)
    and the substantive issues of whether there is a risk to security directly
    or indirectly through withdrawal of American cooperation.

    Also JRM's twitter feed is plugging his new book on the Victorians,
    so he has clearly given up fighting the stereotype.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @TOPPING said:
    > > Is there no side of the argument that JRM cannot get on the wrong side of?
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720
    >
    > JRM does have a point. The furore over the leak from this committee
    > masks that there was no real secret leaked (if you have secretly decided
    > to buy a Ford Focus, the car dealer will know, as will your neighbours)
    > and the substantive issues of whether there is a risk to security directly
    > or indirectly through withdrawal of American cooperation.
    >
    > Also JRM's twitter feed is plugging his new book on the Victorians,
    > so he has clearly given up fighting the stereotype.

    I think its entirely possible to think GW is a knob AND giving our 5G network to a communist state enterprise is a bad idea.
  • > @SquareRoot said:
    > Nah, She will sack Grayling and the Tories will win the Euros with a landslide.;)

    I was told the only reason Grayling was still in a job was in case Brexit ever happened and they need a fall guy to implement it.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TOPPING said:

    Is there no side of the argument that JRM cannot get on the wrong side of?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720

    Williamson likes hard Brexit and can therefore do no wrong. May recognizes and has tried to ameliorate the problem. In the Reees-Mogg world everything is black or white. It’s the mark of the willing ignorant.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited May 2019

    > @rottenborough said:

    > FWIW, I wrote a brief piece on Huawei and why the company’s here to stay for one of our platforms a couple of months back. Basically, it owns the future:https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay Thanks. Useful update. I had forgotten Nokia was still around in some technology spaces. The lack of 5G patents and technology from Western companies should be a wake up call on how we are running our own R&D systems.
    Who is we? Plessey? Racal? Marconi? British firms no longer exist or
    are at best shadows of their former selves. Our only choice is to buy
    foreign kit, whether with American or Chinese back doors.
    Support of native industries matters, as does support of R&D; we all
    remember SeanT contrasting China's massive research expenditure
    (and I guess we can now see it was not all about nicking Western
    technology) with George Osborne decimating our own.

    "China is not competition for us"

    Biden's first gaffe of this cycle ?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-says-china-is-not-competition-for-us-prompting-pushback-from-republicans/2019/05/01/4ae4e738-6c68-11e9-a66d-a82d3f3d96d5_story.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Is there no side of the argument that JRM cannot get on the wrong side of?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720

    Golly: "Security correspondent Frank Gardner said the BBC had been told "more than one concerning issue" had been uncovered regarding Mr Williamson during the leak inquiry and not just the Huawei conversation." Which looks like a leak about the leak.

    Looking also at Kuenssberg's snidey headline "Gavin Williamson: Now he's told to 'go away and shut up'" and the article itself it seems the Beeb did not love Williamson.

    And still the oddest thing is Williamson saying that a "thorough and formal inquiry" would have "vindicated" him; why does he take it as read there is not going to be one? And why is he not clamouring for one?
    'cos there are elements involved which cannot be disclosed as part of any court/enquiry proceedings.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    What do we think par is for the Tories?

    >1000 disaster
    600-1000 defeat
    400-600 a hit
    <400 a mere flesh wound
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Judging by twitter, turnout for the spoiled ballot party would appear to be "brisk".
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2019
    I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.

    We all know she has made mistakes. But she was dealt an impossible hand by Cameron, made worse by the disastrous General Election. The Conservatives are totally unruly on Europe. They always have been and it only took Cameron's ill-judged decision to lift the lid on Pandora's Box.

    Whatever Piers Morgan might think, I doubt anyone would have done better than Theresa May. An unpopular viewpoint perhaps, but I believe it's true. It's very easy in hindsight to say, 'she should have done this or that.'
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2019
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.
    '

    Not sure what you mean - do you think she will fight another GE ?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2019
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.
    Does she? She didn’t refer at all to the pro IRA candidates, and Otto English etc are suggesting she didn’t even know of them
    OIC no she doesn't mention them. Perhaps that was important also.

    The Brexit Party - bringing communities together everywhere.

    btw are we the only two fuckers actually using the blockquote system properly?
    I assumed everyone always used the system you and I do, maybe we are Betamax and everyone else is VHS!

    It seemed to me to be the point of The Brexit Party at this stage to be a collection of people who had only anger at the handling of Brexit in common, and any widely contrasting opinions were a positive example of that. This case could be a good selling point, or it could end in tears I guess
    No it's a great selling point and looks like it is supplanting UKIP as the pro-Brexit pressure group.

    But given where we are and that MPs have so far refused to vote for Brexit I suppose we will find out whether the country feels strongly enough about it to make them the government.
    To be honest I took people like Otto English and Sunder Katwala’s word for it that Cuthbert was pro IRA, they could have been just looking to smear by association. She was in the RCP anyway

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/04/22/why-im-standing-for-the-brexit-party/
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.
    >
    > We all know she has made mistakes. But she was dealt an impossible hand by Cameron, made worse by the disastrous General Election. The Conservatives are totally unruly on Europe. They always have been and it only took Cameron's ill-judged decision to lift the lid on Pandora's Box.
    >
    > Whatever Piers Morgan might think, I doubt anyone would have done better than Theresa May. An unpopular viewpoint perhaps, but I believe it's true. It's very easy in hindsight to say, 'she should have done this or that.'

    I agree and apart from the ERG headbangers most CON MPs
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @TGOHF said:
    > > @Mysticrose said:
    > > I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.
    > '
    >
    > Not sure what you mean - do you think she will fight another GE ?
    >
    >

    I don't rule it out.

    Let's suppose she's about to get the fudge-deal through with Labour. What then? Will she really want to cede the 2nd stage to that prize prick Boris Johnson?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2019
    isam said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21

    Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
    Would be interesting to hear Aileen Quinton’s opinion on it

    https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
    She explains at length in that NewsLetter article.
    Does she? She didn’t refer at all to the pro IRA candidates, and Otto English etc are suggesting she didn’t even know of them
    OIC no she doesn't mention them. Perhaps that was important also.

    The Brexit Party - bringing communities together everywhere.

    btw are we the only two fuckers actually using the blockquote system properly?
    I assumed everyone always used the system you and I do, maybe we are Betamax and everyone else is VHS!

    It seemed to me to be the point of The Brexit Party at this stage to be a collection of people who had only anger at the handling of Brexit in common, and any widely contrasting opinions were a positive example of that. This case could be a good selling point, or it could end in tears I guess
    No it's a great selling point and looks like it is supplanting UKIP as the pro-Brexit pressure group.

    But given where we are and that MPs have so far refused to vote for Brexit I suppose we will find out whether the country feels strongly enough about it to make them the government.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > What do we think par is for the Tories?
    >
    > >1000 disaster
    > 600-1000 defeat
    > 400-600 a hit
    > <400 a mere flesh wound
    >

    Closer to 600 losses than 1000 will be an OK result. These seats were last fought on GE2015 day when the blue team exceeded expectations.

    I wonder how LAB is going to do.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    @JosiasJessop - yep, for Huawei ownership is probably very different to control. The point in my article was that the fact it is privately-held means it does not have the pressure to generate returns that publicly-held companies do. That means it can’t be squeezed so easily. Of course, private ownership does also mean a lot of things can be hidden away.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    > > > @Mysticrose said:
    > > > I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.
    > > '
    > >
    > > Not sure what you mean - do you think she will fight another GE ?
    > >
    > >
    >
    > I don't rule it out.
    >
    > Let's suppose she's about to get the fudge-deal through with Labour. What then? Will she really want to cede the 2nd stage to that prize prick Boris Johnson?

    Gordon Brown thought that peeving all his MPs, the voters and well everyone wouldn't matter if they wielded the sword of righteousness - but gravity comes around sooner or later.

    May can stay on as long as she can - depends how much more permanent damage she wants to do to the Conservative party.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > What do we think par is for the Tories?
    >
    > >1000 disaster
    > 600-1000 defeat
    > 400-600 a hit
    > <400 a mere flesh wound
    >

    Michael Portillo has a famous motto:

    "Who dares wins".

    WE dare!

    WE will WIN!!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    I don't really understand this argument. Why would a Tory firing another Tory be good for the Tories?
This discussion has been closed.