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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories and LDs doing better than the polls on the Projected National Vote Share
BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) for the 2019 local elections:Con 28Lab 28LD 19Others 25
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That said Labour should be more worried, this is not the performance of an opposition that is about to transition to government.
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1124233209804468224?s=19
Oh what a shame.
> It could be a case of the first major party to ditch their leader wins the next election. (Meanwhile Cable leaves on a high.....)
Well one of them seemingly has a stalinist grip on all party apparatus.
> https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1124323555934724102
Baron Harkonnen.
"Devastated by Thatcherism and blighted by austerity, for decades the North East has been held back by Tory rule. By electing Momentum member Jamie Driscoll as the region’s first mayor, the people of the North East have rejected the economic orthodoxy of the past 40 years and taken back power for their communities."
Meanwhile seems rest of NE is heading away from Lab as fast as it can.
> Labour down to only 83 losses now, pulling it back a bit..
I'll take a stab at final figures of Con -1400, LD +900.
Who do you think that's aimed at?
> Statement by Momentum on their new mayor in Tyneside:
>
> "Devastated by Thatcherism and blighted by austerity, for decades the North East has been held back by Tory rule. By electing Momentum member Jamie Driscoll as the region’s first mayor, the people of the North East have rejected the economic orthodoxy of the past 40 years and taken back power for their communities."
>
> Meanwhile seems rest of NE is heading away from Lab as fast as it can.
Yep https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124326146185805824
https://electionsetc.com/2019/05/01/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-and-projected-house-of-commons-in-2019/
> https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1124320441739431937
>
>
>
> That was the night the Tories lost over 2,000 seats.
The number to beat is what the Lib Dems lost in 2015 and 2011.
https://twitter.com/CllrJeanieBell/status/1123917856176050177
Or to paraphrase a thread from yesterday:
"If projected vote shares in the local elections had been a good general election predictor then Paddy Ashdown/Charles Kennedy/Nick Clegg would have been Prime Minister in......"
> I expect the Lib Dems to triumph at the EU elections with Farage's party barely registering. The Lib Dems have re-established themselves as the natural party of protest, and that's an alluring fragrance to be wearing right now.
don't think that comment will age well
> I expect the Lib Dems to triumph at the EU elections with Farage's party barely registering. The Lib Dems have re-established themselves as the natural party of protest, and that's an alluring fragrance to be wearing right now.
that rather depends on what you are protesting about. you can win good money laying Brexit to get most seats in the Euros.
Can't see how she survives this whatever the blah blah about stability in run-up to Euro elections.
Nice to see her personal standing helped her councillors....
Peter Alfred Soulsby Labour Party 51444
Sandip Verma The Conservative Party Candidate 14519
Mags Lewis The Green Party 6659
Nigel Carl Porter Liberal Democrats 4101
Stuart Ian Eric Young UK Independence Party (UKIP) 3526
Sanjay Prem Gogia Independent 2445
Stephen Derek Score Socialist Alternative 1643
Soulsby re-elected on first preferences with 61%
> Good to see the big 2 putting in about as poor an effort as the top 4 footie contenders are doing....
>
> Tories lose 33 councils so far, Labour only lose 4 so far
Labour on -96 councillors....
> Surely the Tories are not going to wait for the disaster that will be the Euro elections before giving May her marching orders. She’s tried, she’s failed and she has a proven record of failure - Brexit, 2017 GE and now the 2019 local elections.
>
> HoC back on Tuesday.
>
> Can't see how she survives this whatever the blah blah about stability in run-up to Euro elections.
Except, no one would want the poisoned chalice until after the Euros, so she will remain super glued to the PMs chair until after then, at least.
> I expect the Lib Dems to triumph at the EU elections with Farage's party barely registering. The Lib Dems have re-established themselves as the natural party of protest, and that's an alluring fragrance to be wearing right now.
That is a bold prediction given the polls and today's results.
> Surely the Tories are not going to wait for the disaster that will be the Euro elections before giving May her marching orders. She’s tried, she’s failed and she has a proven record of failure - Brexit, 2017 GE and now the 2019 local elections.
Nah, no point landing anyone else the poisoned chalice until the Euros are over.
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1124328131412856834
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> > Good to see the big 2 putting in about as poor an effort as the top 4 footie contenders are doing....
>
> >
>
> > Tories lose 33 councils so far, Labour only lose 4 so far
>
>
>
> Labour on -96 councillors....
>
> Tory-boys down 925
But which will come first -100 or -1000?
https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1124323056191668224
> Not sure I would ever try to pull leaflets back through a letter box, you never know what might grab your fingers.
>
> https://twitter.com/CllrJeanieBell/status/1123917856176050177
In my experience every party does it
> Mrs May not the only one getting heckled today......
>
> https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1124323056191668224
Lol. Love it.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Statement by Momentum on their new mayor in Tyneside:
> >
> > "Devastated by Thatcherism and blighted by austerity, for decades the North East has been held back by Tory rule. By electing Momentum member Jamie Driscoll as the region’s first mayor, the people of the North East have rejected the economic orthodoxy of the past 40 years and taken back power for their communities."
> >
> > Meanwhile seems rest of NE is heading away from Lab as fast as it can.
>
> Yep https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124326146185805824
I'm very very slowly doing the swings for the 2005 to 2017 General Elections for each county. I've done most of the north North so far. Figures as follows
Durham: 9.9% swing Labour to Conservatives
Cumbria 8% Lab to C
Northumberland: 7.9% Lab to C
Greater Manchester 1.1% Lab to C
Lancashire 0.1% Lab to C
Tyne and Wear 0.5% C to Lab
Laters, peeps!
This is obviously a really good set of results for the Lib Dems. You benchmark them against where they started, not against long-past elections. They were not inevitably going to improve.
> Labour gain control of High Peak council
Strange results across Derbyshire as a whole.
> IF Parliament can't sort it out.
>
> Who do you think that's aimed at? https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1124323555934724102
You don't have to aim Pickles - just roll him in the approximate direction.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> >
> > > Good to see the big 2 putting in about as poor an effort as the top 4 footie contenders are doing....
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Tories lose 33 councils so far, Labour only lose 4 so far
> >
> >
> >
> > Labour on -96 councillors....
> >
> > Tory-boys down 925
>
> But which will come first -100 or -1000?
I'm still sticking with the Tory -1000. the Lab losses do have a chance of reducing. Con is a one way ticket.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> >
>
> > > Good to see the big 2 putting in about as poor an effort as the top 4 footie contenders are doing....
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Tories lose 33 councils so far, Labour only lose 4 so far
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Labour on -96 councillors....
>
> >
>
> > Tory-boys down 925
>
>
>
> But which will come first -100 or -1000?
>
> Close, close! But I fear that as I now need to go out to the shops, I might miss the 1000 landmark!
>
> Laters, peeps!
Labour -108 ! (per BBC)
> Surely the Tories are not going to wait for the disaster that will be the Euro elections before giving May her marching orders. She’s tried, she’s failed and she has a proven record of failure - Brexit, 2017 GE and now the 2019 local elections.
>
> HoC back on Tuesday.
>
> Can't see how she survives this whatever the blah blah about stability in run-up to Euro elections.
That's exactly what it'll be. She has to be the one in charge during the Euros to take 100% of the poison herself, then will be the time to send her off.
> In my experience every party does it
Wouldn't be surprised. Still, having been caught on camera, this one is going to get done for theft.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1124329164931305472
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Labour gain control of High Peak council
>
> Strange results across Derbyshire as a whole.
There is indeed remarkable variation.
> > @TudorRose said:
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > >
> > > > Good to see the big 2 putting in about as poor an effort as the top 4 footie contenders are doing....
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Tories lose 33 councils so far, Labour only lose 4 so far
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Labour on -96 councillors....
> > >
> > > Tory-boys down 925
> >
> > But which will come first -100 or -1000?
>
> I'm still sticking with the Tory -1000. the Lab losses do have a chance of reducing. Con is a one way ticket.
well that didn't go well!
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Surely the Tories are not going to wait for the disaster that will be the Euro elections before giving May her marching orders. She’s tried, she’s failed and she has a proven record of failure - Brexit, 2017 GE and now the 2019 local elections.
> >
> > HoC back on Tuesday.
> >
> > Can't see how she survives this whatever the blah blah about stability in run-up to Euro elections.
>
> Except, no one would want the poisoned chalice until after the Euros, so she will remain super glued to the PMs chair until after then, at least.
New leader wouldn’t be in place before the Euros even if the contest started now. Waiting for the Euros is unnecessary delay. We know they'll be bad and May is just electorally toxic.
> Re spoilt ballots, Shipman is having fun.
>
> https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1124329164931305472
I think I read that there is an issue in Cotswold where the Tories won a ward by one vote. The elector had written 'Brexit' and this was counted as a vote for the Tories; the independent loser is (unsurprisingly) challenging this.
Surprised they gained it given the general picture.
But this plague to all houses may have hit the Independents in Mansfield where they have been in power for some time.
> > @dr_spyn said:
> > Re spoilt ballots, Shipman is having fun.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1124329164931305472
>
> I think I read that there is an issue in Cotswold where the Tories won a ward by one vote. The elector had written 'Brexit' and this was counted as a vote for the Tories; the independent loser is (unsurprisingly) challenging this.
Quite right to challenge that.
Another anecdote re odd ballots.
https://twitter.com/benrathe/status/1124330565145174016
> Chelmsford protesting slow progress of Brexit by voting LD, I see:
>
> https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1124233209804468224?s=19
The poor start to the cricket season by Essex would be another factor.
> Barry Gardiner on BBC again. Can't they let someone else have a go?
I salute his indefatigability!
> > @TudorRose said:
> > > @dr_spyn said:
> > > Re spoilt ballots, Shipman is having fun.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1124329164931305472
> >
> > I think I read that there is an issue in Cotswold where the Tories won a ward by one vote. The elector had written 'Brexit' and this was counted as a vote for the Tories; the independent loser is (unsurprisingly) challenging this.
>
> Quite right to challenge that.
>
> Another anecdote re odd ballots.
>
> https://twitter.com/benrathe/status/1124330565145174016
I got "can't stand either of them" once when I stood.
> https://twitter.com/Sean_Kemp/status/1124329535959437313
But there are quite a lot fewer seats being contested compared to 2007. A lot if councils have been merged into unitaries since then, not of all which now vote on this year of the cycle. A lot of councils have been reduced in size (number of councillors) and some have switched to all-out voting but not in this year of the cycle.
> > @dr_spyn said:
>
> > Re spoilt ballots, Shipman is having fun.
>
> >
>
> > twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1124329164931305472
>
> I think I read that there is an issue in Cotswold where the Tories won a ward by one vote. The elector had written 'Brexit' and this was counted as a vote for the Tories; the independent loser is (unsurprisingly) challenging this.
>
> Had they written it next to the Tory candidate?
I believe so, and so precedent would support the RO on this.
> Barry Gardiner on BBC again. Can't they let someone else have a go?
Are Labour punishing him, or us ?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Barry Gardiner on BBC again. Can't they let someone else have a go?
>
> I salute his indefatigability!
Starmer locked up in Milne's basement.
> Not sure I would ever try to pull leaflets back through a letter box, you never know what might grab your fingers.
>
> https://twitter.com/CllrJeanieBell/status/1123917856176050177
Could not the police be alerted to that? Plenty of evidence there!
> > @dr_spyn said:
>
> > Re spoilt ballots, Shipman is having fun.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1124329164931305472
>
>
>
>
>
> I think I read that there is an issue in Cotswold where the Tories won a ward by one vote. The elector had written 'Brexit' and this was counted as a vote for the Tories; the independent loser is (unsurprisingly) challenging this.
>
> I understand that there was an arrow from "Brexit" to the box next to the Conservative candidate's name. That seems important to me.
But does it indicate a preference or a message? If I were the loser I'd definitely want to challenge the decision.
> Surely the Tories are not going to wait for the disaster that will be the Euro elections before giving May her marching orders. She’s tried, she’s failed and she has a proven record of failure - Brexit, 2017 GE and now the 2019 local elections.
Probably best to leave her to soak up the EU elections disaster.
I would think she'll be resigning soon after though...
> > @dr_spyn said:
>
> > Re spoilt ballots, Shipman is having fun.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1124329164931305472
>
>
>
>
>
> I think I read that there is an issue in Cotswold where the Tories won a ward by one vote. The elector had written 'Brexit' and this was counted as a vote for the Tories; the independent loser is (unsurprisingly) challenging this.
>
> I understand that there was an arrow from "Brexit" to the box next to the Conservative candidate's name. That seems important to me.
Not really. The legal question is whether the voter’s intention is absolutely clear. Such a ballot paper could possibly be someone refusing to vote and drawing an arrow pointing to the party guilty for Brexit.
> https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1124331963328995328
is someone having a laugh? I'm sure Dyfodol must mean Daffodil, not future.
> Listening to Gardiner and Corbyn, it seems like Labour are fully buying into the narrative that these results mean voters want Brexit done as soon as possible. Interesting few weeks ahead.
Yes, the voters are wanting Brexit dead and buried!