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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The top pollster from the 2014 Euros now has LAB 6 points behi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The top pollster from the 2014 Euros now has LAB 6 points behind oldies the third place

Throughout the Euros campaign one pollster has been producing very different numbers from just about everybody else. That is YouGov which in its survey for the Times this morning finds that the Brexit party is on 37% with the Lib Dems on 19 and labour six points behind that on 13.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited May 2019
    Brexit Party to poll 40%?

    #AVEIT
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    edited May 2019
    Second

    ? oldies ? isn't that the Tories?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Broken sleazy Teresy Morbyn on the slide.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    What's happening is that voters have a risk-free chance to kick Bishop Brennan up the arse. Which they are taking with glee.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2019
    On those numbers it is possible Labour and the Tories will not come in the top 2 in any home nation. In England the Brexit Party will be first and LDs second (the reverse in London), in Wales the Brexit Party will be first and Plaid second, in Scotland the SNP will be first and the Brexit Party second and in Northern Ireland the DUP and Sinn Fein will take the top 2 slots
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131112283474731013
    >
    > Getting closer to the magic 40%

    Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131112283474731013
    > >
    > > Getting closer to the magic 40%
    >
    > Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."

    ....ignoring that in this poll Brexit Party + UKIP + Conservatives = 52%.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    I think these polls are underestimating the Lib Dem surge.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131112283474731013

    Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP on 52%, Leave majority back on
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @MarqueeMark said:

    > Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."

    Simplistically TBP + CON + UKP = 52%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131112283474731013

    The Labour tribal vote is remarkably resilient.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Don't know if it's still up but Ladbrokes had Lib Dems at evens to beat Labour (votes). Put a little on.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2019
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    LD to beat Labour in London at 6/5 looks ok.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2019
    I've been getting the feeling for a while that the Tories could do a PASOK / German Social Democrats after these elections.
    Labour's position is poor but they have an enormous resilience up here which gives a more or less hard floor of 180 seats or so in the forseeable future - doesn't seem so existential for them.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited May 2019
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Don't know if it's still up but Ladbrokes had Lib Dems at evens to beat Labour (votes). Put a little on.

    Yeah, it's ok but I think the London bet is better. Don't forget there are some strong Leave pockets in the Capital, and the Labour vote in them will go Brexit, which helps the bet.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2019
    4 (5 in Wales, Scotland) remain parties will split the vote at a GE.

    Leave is nearly down to 2 with Ukip down the pan - there is no reason for it to exist anymore.

    I can see Chuk being phased out - will the LDs and Greens form a pact ?

    The next GE looks like being a single issue poll.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I'm just going to throw differential turnout into the mix.

    BP - 40% .. LibDem 20% .. Green 10% .. SNP/PC 5%

    Soggy, incompetent Rabble = CON/LAB/UKIP/CHUK - 25%
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @isam said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131112283474731013
    >
    >
    >
    > Five in a row for Leave over Remain

    I had no idea that you placed such credence in opinion polls, especially in deductions from opinion polls on matters that are polled more directly.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @isam said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131112283474731013
    >
    >
    >
    > Five in a row for Leave over Remain

    Looks like the clear Remain aggregate is below 30% in this poll (25% + SNP + PC). Would be a crushing defeat compared to the clear Leave aggregate of 40% if this was the result.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    "We’ll have to wait till Sunday from 2200 BST to find out what’s actually happened."

    Won't there even be an exit poll on Thursday night?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SKY News - British Steel to be placed into insolvency today.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2019

    > @isam said:

    >



    >

    >

    >

    > Five in a row for Leave over Remain



    I had no idea that you placed such credence in opinion polls, especially in deductions from opinion polls on matters that are polled more directly.
    I don’t really. Just an observation.

    Although my opinion poll allergy is more aggressive when confronted with mid terms. You’ll remember the criticism I made and examples I gave were all six months to a year before the events, not two days

    Right from the off though I have said the Euro Elections were a proxy referendum, so much more reliable than hypothetical Remain/Leave polls
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Prime Minister's Questions should be tasty today. When is the running order out?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    > @JackW said:
    > SKY News - British Steel to be placed into insolvency today.

    Devastating for Scunthorpe
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    > @JackW said:
    > SKY News - British Steel to be placed into insolvency today.

    That is disgusting if true
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Corbyn to lead on British Steel ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Were it not for the consequences for me and mine I would love to see Farage and co put in charge of Brexit and watch them confronting reality and having to come up with plans and deliver them.

    It is easy to destroy. Hard to build. And making an economy and country work is a lot harder than setting up an internet fanbase and hiring a few halls.

    Still, I would rather not have the Jacobins in charge. No good will come of it.

    A while back @AlistairM wrote a good - if somewhat depressing - header about the parallels between Argentina at the start of the 20th century and Britain now. I hoped that he was being too gloomy. I now rather feel that he is right. We are facing a descent into decline and a turning towards a form of nasty illiberal politics brought to us by spivs. No good ever has - or ever will - come of it.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    >
    > > Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."
    >
    > Simplistically TBP + CON + UKP = 52%

    I wouldn't even consider allocating Con or Lab votes to either Leave or Remain. Why on earth anyone would vote Con or Lab in this election is a mystery.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    Blue_rog said:

    "We’ll have to wait till Sunday from 2200 BST to find out what’s actually happened."

    Won't there even be an exit poll on Thursday night?

    No, the rest of the EU won’t have voted yet.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    OT, very disappointed by Birmingham Hall Green MP, Roger Godsiff, pathetically pandering to the protest at Anderton Park primary school in his constituency. I was very impressed by how Jess Phillips took them on face to face.

    Has Corbyn had anything to say on the matter?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48347769
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @TGOHF said:
    > 4 (5 in Wales, Scotland) remain parties will split the vote at a GE.
    >
    > Leave is nearly down to 2 with Ukip down the pan - there is no reason for it to exist anymore.
    >
    > I can see Chuk being phased out - will the LDs and Greens form a pact ?
    >
    > The next GE looks like being a single issue poll.

    The Lib Dems would have to be prepared to offer the Greens something meaningful, such as standing aside in some seats that they have recently held but that the Greens might be better placed to win. Not sure that they would do that.

    Also, since Green voters have shown that they are very open to being persuaded to vote tactically in general elections it might not be necessary.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Pulpstar said:

    > @JackW said:

    > SKY News - British Steel to be placed into insolvency today.



    Devastating for Scunthorpe

    A sign of things to come? Presumably those who think that this is not as bad as WW2 and the price to be paid for a collapse in orders will not be bothered.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Thinking ahead to Sunday, I can't wait to see Barry Gardiner try and sugar coat a potential sub 15% election result for Labour. You can drizzle a turd in honey but it's still a turd.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > "We’ll have to wait till Sunday from 2200 BST to find out what’s actually happened."
    >
    > Won't there even be an exit poll on Thursday night?
    >
    > No, the rest of the EU won’t have voted yet.

    What do they matter :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2019
    > @Torby_Fennel said:
    > > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > >
    > > > Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."
    > >
    > > Simplistically TBP + CON + UKP = 52%
    >
    > I wouldn't even consider allocating Con or Lab votes to either Leave or Remain. Why on earth anyone would vote Con or Lab in this election is a mystery.

    Labour ?

    Main practical anti-Farage vote in the North East
    Big black, minority ethnic vote still (A demographic that cares little for brexit either way compared to white people)
    Tribal loyalty.
    Lexit choice if you listen to Corbyn/Milne
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @Torby_Fennel said:
    > > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > >
    > > > Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."
    > >
    > > Simplistically TBP + CON + UKP = 52%
    >
    > I wouldn't even consider allocating Con or Lab votes to either Leave or Remain. Why on earth anyone would vote Con or Lab in this election is a mystery.

    Because they support moderation not an extreme result ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    GIN1138 said:

    Brexit Party to poll 40%?



    #AVEIT

    "I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!"
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Farage wiping the floor with Vince who has just called his wife a ‘dark face’
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I saw a stat on Sky News last night that said that China has produced more steel in the last 22 months than the UK has produced in the last 149 years.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Blue_rog said:

    > @brokenwheel said:

    > "We’ll have to wait till Sunday from 2200 BST to find out what’s actually happened."

    >

    > Won't there even be an exit poll on Thursday night?

    >

    > No, the rest of the EU won’t have voted yet.



    What do they matter :)

    Seriously, why would our results have an effect on other countries' voting intention? We're almost out the door anyway, right?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    I was looking forward to staying up on Thursday night :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2019
    Sunday will be a very good night for Le Pen, Farage, Salvini and Orban I think. The sort of hopeful EU all Change UK voters will be looking toward.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited May 2019
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @Torby_Fennel said:
    > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > >
    > > > > Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."
    > > >
    > > > Simplistically TBP + CON + UKP = 52%
    > >
    > > I wouldn't even consider allocating Con or Lab votes to either Leave or Remain. Why on earth anyone would vote Con or Lab in this election is a mystery.
    >
    > Because they support moderation not an extreme result ?

    Yeah, I'm fascinated that pb posters, many of whom for years now have been lamenting the lack of compromise and centrism in UK politics, seem to mostly be supporting the parties with extreme positions on Brexit.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @Torby_Fennel said:
    > > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > >
    > > > Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."
    > >
    > > Simplistically TBP + CON + UKP = 52%
    >
    > I wouldn't even consider allocating Con or Lab votes to either Leave or Remain. Why on earth anyone would vote Con or Lab in this election is a mystery.

    I did say it was simplistic! I mainly did it because of the coincidence of it summing to 52%
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @JackW said:
    >
    > > SKY News - British Steel to be placed into insolvency today.
    >
    >
    >
    > Devastating for Scunthorpe
    >
    > A sign of things to come? Presumably those who think that this is not as bad as WW2 and the price to be paid for a collapse in orders will not be bothered.

    Speaking of WW2, we ought to learn from Trump (and America generally) and play the national security card more often to protect domestic production of everything from steel to cloud computing.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2019

    OT, very disappointed by Birmingham Hall Green MP, Roger Godsiff, pathetically pandering to the protest at Anderton Park primary school in his constituency. I was very impressed by how Jess Phillips took them on face to face.

    Has Corbyn had anything to say on the matter?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48347769

    Probably too busy organising her deselection. Yesterday he was hanging out at the Finsbury Park Mosque, doubt he was trying to sell Phillips’ case there.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Punter, backed the Lib Dems to win London at 3.6 a couple of days ago...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited May 2019
    Lots of cancellations on the Immingham - Scunthorpe turns this morning:

    https://tinyurl.com/y2g5arev

    And most due to a request by the customer.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2019

    Prime Minister's Questions should be tasty today. When is the running order out?

    No-one very interesting though I'm sure Mr Speaker will oblige with his selections, given there are only 4 Tories on the list.

    Q1 John Woodcock (Barrow and Furness)
    Q2 Antoinette Sandbach (Eddisbury)
    Q3 Ronnie Cowan (Inverclyde)
    Q4 Toby Perkins (Chesterfield)
    Q5 Stephen Morgan (Portsmouth South)
    Q6 Mr Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
    Q7 Ms Karen Buck (Westminster North)
    Q8 Jeff Smith (Manchester, Withington)
    Q9 James Heappey (Wells)
    Q10 Mike Amesbury (Weaver Vale)
    Q11 Laura Smith (Crewe and Nantwich)
    Q12 Thangam Debbonaire (Bristol West)
    Q13 Chris Law (Dundee West)
    Q14 Kevin Hollinrake (Thirsk and Malton)
    Q15 Marsha De Cordova (Battersea)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @Torby_Fennel said:
    > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > >
    > > > > Remainers will still chunter that "they didn't achieve 52%....so Brexit is on the slide...."
    > > >
    > > > Simplistically TBP + CON + UKP = 52%
    > >
    > > I wouldn't even consider allocating Con or Lab votes to either Leave or Remain. Why on earth anyone would vote Con or Lab in this election is a mystery.
    >
    > I did say it was simplistic! I mainly did it because of the coincidence of it summing to 52%

    Yes, it's hard to escape!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited May 2019
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > I was looking forward to staying up on Thursday night :lol:

    Its better on Sunday night IMO as the next day is bank holiday Monday which means there's no excuse for everyone not consuming copious amounts of booze and popcorn as the shit well and truly hits the fan at Westminster! :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > I was looking forward to staying up on Thursday night :lol:
    >
    > Its better on Sunday night IMO as the next day is bank holiday Monday which means there's no excuse for everyone not drinking copious amounts of booze and popcorn as the shit well and truly hits the fan at Westminster! :D

    Whats the likely timetable for Sunday night and announcements ? Will the Uk be ready to go at 10pm or is a late night likely ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    OT, very disappointed by Birmingham Hall Green MP, Roger Godsiff, pathetically pandering to the protest at Anderton Park primary school in his constituency. I was very impressed by how Jess Phillips took them on face to face.

    Has Corbyn had anything to say on the matter?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48347769

    No-one senior has had anything to say on the matter. Too bloody scared and feeble.

    - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.
    - The teachers and the schools have been left unsupported.
    - Those in charge have been afraid of bullies because these particular bullies are Muslim (now joined by some of the dimmer Christian sects and Orthodox Jews) and taking on Muslim bullies is fraught with danger: accusations of Islamophobia at best and quite a lot worse at worst.
    - Those in charge talk about values but do not understand them or fight for them or protect them.
    - They think (wrongly) that they are obliged to respect that which is not worthy of respect.
    - They tell themselves one of the biggest lies around: that we are all basically the same and believe the same things, when this is not so. You are either for LGBQT rights or not; you either believe that they are equal or you do not and you cannot just wish those differences away by wittering about "tolerance" and "diversity" and all the other banal Kumbaya nonsense that passes for too much public debate on difficult topics these days.
    - They are frightened into thinking that criticising Islam is Islamophobic and must not be done.
    - They do not fundamentally care about the children who are being deprived of education and help and advice. These are Muslim children you see and somehow not worthy of being taught the same as all British children and being expected to abide by the standards of everyone else. The racism of low expectations.

    Oh, Christ! It is all too depressing. I could go on. I have done. See here. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/21/rendering-unto-caesar/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > OT, very disappointed by Birmingham Hall Green MP, Roger Godsiff, pathetically pandering to the protest at Anderton Park primary school in his constituency. I was very impressed by how Jess Phillips took them on face to face.
    >
    > Has Corbyn had anything to say on the matter?
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48347769
    >
    > No-one senior has had anything to say on the matter. Too bloody scared and feeble.
    >
    > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.
    > - The teachers and the schools have been left unsupported.
    > - Those in charge have been afraid of bullies because these particular bullies are Muslim (now joined by some of the dimmer Christian sects and Orthodox Jews) and taking on Muslim bullies is fraught with danger: accusations of Islamophobia at best and quite a lot worse at worst.
    > - Those in charge talk about values but do not understand them or fight for them or protect them.
    > - They think (wrongly) that they are obliged to respect that which is not worthy of respect.
    > - They tell themselves one of the biggest lies around: that we are all basically the same and believe the same things, when this is not so. You are either for LGBQT rights or not; you either believe that they are equal or you do not and you cannot just wish those differences away by wittering about "tolerance" and "diversity" and all the other banal Kumbaya nonsense that passes for too much public debate on difficult topics these days.
    > - They are frightened into thinking that criticising Islam is Islamophobic and must not be done.
    > - They do not fundamentally care about the children who are being deprived of education and help and advice. These are Muslim children you see and somehow not worthy of being taught the same as all British children and being expected to abide by the standards of everyone else. The racism of low expectations.
    >
    > Oh, Christ! It is all too depressing. I could go on. I have done. See here. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/21/rendering-unto-caesar/

    Forget politics for a while. The sun is out, the weather sublime. Just enjoy the garden.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2019
    > @Tissue_Price said:
    > Prime Minister's Questions should be tasty today. When is the running order out?
    >
    > No-one very interesting though I'm sure Mr Speaker will oblige:

    Will any of the questions not be a variant of ...

    Mr Speaker -

    Can the Prime Minister tell us why she is going for this ruinous hard Tory Brexit/

    or

    Can the Prime Minister tell us why she is betraying the will of 17.4 million people
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    > @TGOHF said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > > I was looking forward to staying up on Thursday night :lol:
    > >
    > > Its better on Sunday night IMO as the next day is bank holiday Monday which means there's no excuse for everyone not drinking copious amounts of booze and popcorn as the shit well and truly hits the fan at Westminster! :D
    >
    > Whats the likely timetable for Sunday night and announcements ? Will the Uk be ready to go at 10pm or is a late night likely ?

    I am sure it wasn't that late a night in 2014.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    > @TGOHF said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > > I was looking forward to staying up on Thursday night :lol:
    > >
    > > Its better on Sunday night IMO as the next day is bank holiday Monday which means there's no excuse for everyone not drinking copious amounts of booze and popcorn as the shit well and truly hits the fan at Westminster! :D
    >
    > Whats the likely timetable for Sunday night and announcements ? Will the Uk be ready to go at 10pm or is a late night likely ?

    BBC are running their coverage from 10pm to 3am I think so shouldn't be too bad.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    > @tlg86 said:
    > I saw a stat on Sky News last night that said that China has produced more steel in the last 22 months than the UK has produced in the last 149 years.

    I wonder what the carbon emissions for all that Chinese steel production were.

    I'm sure Greenpeace will be picketing the Chinese embassy.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Were it not for the consequences for me and mine I would love to see Farage and co put in charge of Brexit and watch them confronting reality and having to come up with plans and deliver them.
    >
    > It is easy to destroy. Hard to build. And making an economy and country work is a lot harder than setting up an internet fanbase and hiring a few halls.
    >
    > Still, I would rather not have the Jacobins in charge. No good will come of it.
    >
    > A while back @AlistairM wrote a good - if somewhat depressing - header about the parallels between Argentina at the start of the 20th century and Britain now. I hoped that he was being too gloomy. I now rather feel that he is right. We are facing a descent into decline and a turning towards a form of nasty illiberal politics brought to us by spivs. No good ever has - or ever will - come of it.

    the scariest bthing Ive seen in this campaign isnt Farage it was Emily Thornberry on TV this morning. She makes Mcdonnell look reasonable.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Scott_P said:
    Wow. That Leaver chap who said that Brexit would mean forfeiting our manufacturing sector looks to be on the money. What a seer.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Wonder if its sunk in yet how despised they all are? And that the cost of their disgusting grubbing about will be a hard right bunch of utter turds sinking the good ship UK under the waves? The UK needs a very swift political reorganization, kill the ConLab parties and provide something decent, kind and fair. And for God's sake stop the sandalistas from resurfacing
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131120726038188033
    >
    >
    >
    > Wow. That Leaver chap who said that Brexit would mean forfeiting our manufacturing sector looks to be on the money. What a seer.

    But we haven't left yet. etc. etc. etc.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @Cyclefree said:

    > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.

    I think that's Penny Mordaunt double-jobbing. Regardless of who has the title it's meaningless if they won't speak out in defence of Equalities.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > Were it not for the consequences for me and mine I would love to see Farage and co put in charge of Brexit and watch them confronting reality and having to come up with plans and deliver them.

    >

    > It is easy to destroy. Hard to build. And making an economy and country work is a lot harder than setting up an internet fanbase and hiring a few halls.

    >

    > Still, I would rather not have the Jacobins in charge. No good will come of it.

    >

    > A while back @AlistairM wrote a good - if somewhat depressing - header about the parallels between Argentina at the start of the 20th century and Britain now. I hoped that he was being too gloomy. I now rather feel that he is right. We are facing a descent into decline and a turning towards a form of nasty illiberal politics brought to us by spivs. No good ever has - or ever will - come of it.



    the scariest bthing Ive seen in this campaign isnt Farage it was Emily Thornberry on TV this morning. She makes Mcdonnell look reasonable.

    What was she saying / doing?

    BTW I think that Corbyn’s Labour is quite as nasty, illiberal and run by useless lying gits as Farage. They think the Jacobins (and their 20th successors) were right to do what they did.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If I were Ruth I'd start by announcing on Monday the Scot Tories are splitting and forming the Scottish Unionist Party, divorce herself from the cancer
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 86, the joy of the current position is that the EU's frozen us out of the carbon trading scheme, but we also can't impose steel tariffs due to being in the customs union.

    Almost as if we should've had an actual position before triggering Article 50, or May should've tried to sound people out to see what might pass instead of agreeing something with the EU that wouldn't pass Parliament, or calling an unnecessary election then running the worst campaign in modern history wasn't terribly clever...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    > @Tissue_Price said:
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131123428650573824

    Staunch May loyalist?

    Who knew there was such a thing... :D
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    > @Cyclefree said:



    > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.



    I think that's Penny Mordaunt double-jobbing. Regardless of who has the title it's meaningless if they won't speak out in defence of Equalities.

    It is an utter dereliction of duty. Gay people are being attacked. The protestors are trying to stop gay people being teachers - to their children anyway. This is propagation of hate - and I don’t give a flying stuff that this hate is legitimised by some bloody book or other. Grrr.....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    >
    > > Were it not for the consequences for me and mine I would love to see Farage and co put in charge of Brexit and watch them confronting reality and having to come up with plans and deliver them.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > It is easy to destroy. Hard to build. And making an economy and country work is a lot harder than setting up an internet fanbase and hiring a few halls.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Still, I would rather not have the Jacobins in charge. No good will come of it.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > A while back @AlistairM wrote a good - if somewhat depressing - header about the parallels between Argentina at the start of the 20th century and Britain now. I hoped that he was being too gloomy. I now rather feel that he is right. We are facing a descent into decline and a turning towards a form of nasty illiberal politics brought to us by spivs. No good ever has - or ever will - come of it.
    >
    >
    >
    > the scariest bthing Ive seen in this campaign isnt Farage it was Emily Thornberry on TV this morning. She makes Mcdonnell look reasonable.
    >
    > What was she saying / doing?
    >
    > BTW I think that Corbyn’s Labour is quite as nasty, illiberal and run by useless lying gits as Farage. They think the Jacobins (and their 20th successors) were right to do what they did.

    she was on TV being grilled on a series of issues by Reid and Morgan, Her entire tone was 1980s student politics, when her claims on Trump or the US Supreme Court were shown to be bogus, she ploughed on regardless saying she was right and everyone else was wrong. This is our shadow FS, an ideologue in an area which needs well diplomacy.

    Very much in the Stalinist mode - Emily Thornberia
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. 86, the joy of the current position is that the EU's frozen us out of the carbon trading scheme, but we also can't impose steel tariffs due to being in the customs union.
    >
    > Almost as if we should've had an actual position before triggering Article 50, or May should've tried to sound people out to see what might pass instead of agreeing something with the EU that wouldn't pass Parliament, or calling an unnecessary election then running the worst campaign in modern history wasn't terribly clever...

    It seems odd to blame May when leavers got us into this mess. Perhaps if they'd actually decided what to do amongst themselves before the referendum, instead of promising everything to everyone.

    But for them, it's always someone else's fault.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131120726038188033
    >
    >
    >
    > Wow. That Leaver chap who said that Brexit would mean forfeiting our manufacturing sector looks to be on the money. What a seer.

    Perhaps they can build a monument . The people of Scunthorpe sacrificed themselves to help deliver the clean pure Brexit !

    They can wave their P45s and sing “ we will not be broken “ as they head off to the dole office .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jessop, holding the PM to account for her conduct (which has been distinctly underwhelming and unsuccessful) is entirely legitimate.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131124160678322176

    Brexit Party leading in every region (except Scotland) and every age group (except 18-24).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > I was very impressed by how Jess Phillips took them on face to face.

    >

    > Has Corbyn had anything to say on the matter?

    >

    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48347769

    >

    > No-one senior has had anything to say on the matter. Too bloody scared and feeble.

    >

    > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.

    > - The teachers and the schools have been left unsupported.

    > - Those in charge have been afraid of bullies because these particular bullies are Muslim (now joined by some of the dimmer Christian sects and Orthodox Jews) and taking on Muslim bullies is fraught with danger: accusations of Islamophobia at best and quite a lot worse at worst.

    > - Those in charge talk about values but do not understand them or fight for them or protect them.

    > - They think (wrongly) that they are obliged to respect that which is not worthy of respect.

    > - They tell themselves one of the biggest lies around: that we are all basically the same and believe the same things, when this is not so. You are either for LGBQT rights or not; you either believe that they are equal or you do not and you cannot just wish those differences away by wittering about "tolerance" and "diversity" and all the other banal Kumbaya nonsense that passes for too much public debate on difficult topics these days.

    > - They are frightened into thinking that criticising Islam is Islamophobic and must not be done.

    > - They do not fundamentally care about the children who are being deprived of education and help and advice. These are Muslim children you see and somehow not worthy of being taught the same as all British children and being expected to abide by the standards of everyone else. The racism of low expectations.

    >

    > Oh, Christ! It is all too depressing. I could go on. I have done. See here. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/21/rendering-unto-caesar/



    Forget politics for a while. The sun is out, the weather sublime. Just enjoy the garden.

    Very wise advice. And my husband has invited me to lunch at a local bistro after his court case. (He is representing someone.) This is unusual. The lunch, I mean. What is he after?

    BTW 3 more Lib Dem votes in London from the Cyclefree household.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    x
    Cyclefree said:

    > @Cyclefree said:



    > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.



    I think that's Penny Mordaunt double-jobbing. Regardless of who has the title it's meaningless if they won't speak out in defence of Equalities.

    It is an utter dereliction of duty. Gay people are being attacked. The protestors are trying to stop gay people being teachers - to their children anyway. This is propagation of hate - and I don’t give a flying stuff that this hate is legitimised by some bloody book or other. Grrr.....
    Isn't the protest an expression of muslimness?
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @JackW said:
    > >
    > > > SKY News - British Steel to be placed into insolvency today.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Devastating for Scunthorpe
    > >
    > > A sign of things to come? Presumably those who think that this is not as bad as WW2 and the price to be paid for a collapse in orders will not be bothered.
    >
    > Speaking of WW2, we ought to learn from Trump (and America generally) and play the national security card more often to protect domestic production of everything from steel to cloud computing.

    We need steel production capacity for national security purposes. Do we have enough without British steel?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    tlg86 said:

    > @Stark_Dawning said:

    >



    >

    >

    >

    > Wow. That Leaver chap who said that Brexit would mean forfeiting our manufacturing sector looks to be on the money. What a seer.



    But we haven't left yet. etc. etc. etc.
    This from the Graun:

    [Brexit] is not the only factor in the crisis but it is very important. Steel contracts are typically agreed well in advance of the product being delivered. As things stand, the UK is due to leave the EU on 31 October and the terms of that separation are yet to be agreed, meaning British Steel’s overseas customers don’t know what tariffs will apply to steel they buy from the company. Sources close to the company say orders from customers in the EU and further afield have dried up as a result.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/22/what-went-wrong-at-british-steel

    So one can certainly conclude that the Brexit spin-off of No Deal has wreaked havoc. And the most vocal advocates of No Deal are about to be swept to power. It will be interesting to see what eventually emerges from the ashes of all this.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > We need steel production capacity for national security purposes. Do we have enough without British steel?

    How many countries are you planning on going to war against simultaneously?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @JackW said:
    > > >
    > > > > SKY News - British Steel to be placed into insolvency today.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Devastating for Scunthorpe
    > > >
    > > > A sign of things to come? Presumably those who think that this is not as bad as WW2 and the price to be paid for a collapse in orders will not be bothered.
    > >
    > > Speaking of WW2, we ought to learn from Trump (and America generally) and play the national security card more often to protect domestic production of everything from steel to cloud computing.
    >
    > We need steel production capacity for national security purposes. Do we have enough without British steel?

    No. And steel isnt just a commodity, its the grade of steel which determines its usage and there are loads of grades in the engineering sector.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    >
    >
    >
    > > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.
    >
    >
    >
    > I think that's Penny Mordaunt double-jobbing. Regardless of who has the title it's meaningless if they won't speak out in defence of Equalities.
    >
    > It is an utter dereliction of duty. Gay people are being attacked. The protestors are trying to stop gay people being teachers - to their children anyway. This is propagation of hate - and I don’t give a flying stuff that this hate is legitimised by some bloody book or other. Grrr.....

    100% agree. The first thing they should do is immediately adopt the No Outsiders scheme as part of the national schools policy and put the full weight of the Government behind it (ignoring for the moment the reasonable response that this Government no longer has any weight). Stop letting all the responsibility for this being carried by a few brave head teachers and make it clear there will be no backing down. Make it cross party as well to make it clear it is the whole of Parliament that is behind this not just one party.

    Then start prosecuting parents for refusing to send their kids to school. If you can fine parents for taking their kids to Spain for a week during the school term then you should sure as hell be able to prosecute them for keeping them out of school for this.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    x

    Cyclefree said:

    > @Cyclefree said:



    > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.



    I think that's Penny Mordaunt double-jobbing. Regardless of who has the title it's meaningless if they won't speak out in defence of Equalities.

    It is an utter dereliction of duty. Gay people are being attacked. The protestors are trying to stop gay people being teachers - to their children anyway. This is propagation of hate - and I don’t give a flying stuff that this hate is legitimised by some bloody book or other. Grrr.....
    Isn't the protest an expression of muslimness?
    Yes. And perfect proof why that stupid definition is stupid and dangerous. It would legitimise Muslim hate against others and stop others criticising it or even pointing it out.

    Bullying and hate and attacks should not get a free pass just because they're organised by someone claiming to do it in the name of religion.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131124160678322176


    It is interesting how the 7% for the Tories is coming equally from leave and remain voters. That must be a party core vote floor - much lower than you’d expect. If I was a Tory MP that would scare me because it shows how little base vote remains. It feels like a Canada style extinction event is coming unless there is a fundamental change in leadership
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    >
    > > I was very impressed by how Jess Phillips took them on face to face.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Has Corbyn had anything to say on the matter?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48347769
    >
    > >
    >
    > > No-one senior has had anything to say on the matter. Too bloody scared and feeble.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.
    >
    > > - The teachers and the schools have been left unsupported.
    >
    > > - Those in charge have been afraid of bullies because these particular bullies are Muslim (now joined by some of the dimmer Christian sects and Orthodox Jews) and taking on Muslim bullies is fraught with danger: accusations of Islamophobia at best and quite a lot worse at worst.
    >
    > > - Those in charge talk about values but do not understand them or fight for them or protect them.
    >
    > > - They think (wrongly) that they are obliged to respect that which is not worthy of respect.
    >
    > > - They tell themselves one of the biggest lies around: that we are all basically the same and believe the same things, when this is not so. You are either for LGBQT rights or not; you either believe that they are equal or you do not and you cannot just wish those differences away by wittering about "tolerance" and "diversity" and all the other banal Kumbaya nonsense that passes for too much public debate on difficult topics these days.
    >
    > > - They are frightened into thinking that criticising Islam is Islamophobic and must not be done.
    >
    > > - They do not fundamentally care about the children who are being deprived of education and help and advice. These are Muslim children you see and somehow not worthy of being taught the same as all British children and being expected to abide by the standards of everyone else. The racism of low expectations.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Oh, Christ! It is all too depressing. I could go on. I have done. See here. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/21/rendering-unto-caesar/
    >
    >
    >
    > Forget politics for a while. The sun is out, the weather sublime. Just enjoy the garden.
    >
    > Very wise advice. And my husband has invited me to lunch at a local bistro after his court case. (He is representing someone.) This is unusual. The lunch, I mean. What is he after?
    >
    > BTW 3 more Lib Dem votes in London from the Cyclefree household.

    Perhaps he's gpoing to confess he's voting for the Brexit Party ! :-)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Jessop, holding the PM to account for her conduct (which has been distinctly underwhelming and unsuccessful) is entirely legitimate.

    Yes, indeed. But complaining that she has failed to do something that they themselves have been unwilling and unable to do is a bit rich.

    And no, I don't believe 'anyone' could have done a better job, or even any leaver. The contradictions in what people want are just too large, and the are of compromise is meaningless to too many.

    Leavers need to shoulder the blame for this, instead of blaming others. This is their project, and it is failing largely due to their own behaviour.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > I think that's Penny Mordaunt double-jobbing. Regardless of who has the title it's meaningless if they won't speak out in defence of Equalities.
    > >
    > > It is an utter dereliction of duty. Gay people are being attacked. The protestors are trying to stop gay people being teachers - to their children anyway. This is propagation of hate - and I don’t give a flying stuff that this hate is legitimised by some bloody book or other. Grrr.....
    >
    > 100% agree. The first thing they should do is immediately adopt the No Outsiders scheme as part of the national schools policy and put the full weight of the Government behind it (ignoring for the moment the reasonable response that this Government no longer has any weight). Stop letting all the responsibility for this being carried by a few brave head teachers and make it clear there will be no backing down. Make it cross party as well to make it clear it is the whole of Parliament that is behind this not just one party.
    >
    > Then start prosecuting parents for refusing to send their kids to school. If you can fine parents for taking their kids to Spain for a week during the school term then you should sure as hell be able to prosecute them for keeping them out of school for this.

    Just wait until Baronness Warsi wades in :-)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1131127281085308930

    There is still hope for my Hammond as caretaker PM wager!!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,181
    British Steel goes under. BTW if you start putting "protective" tariffs on steel, you just made the rest if UK manufacturing uncompetitive, so goodbye JLR and the shipbuilding industry.

    The chickens are coming home to roost. Wile E. Coyote just about to hit the ground. This will be brutal indeed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited May 2019

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > > @Cyclefree said:

    >

    >

    >

    > > - Our Education Secretary and Equalities Minister (do we even have one anymore?) have said diddly squat.

    >

    >

    >

    > I think that's Penny Mordaunt double-jobbing. Regardless of who has the title it's meaningless if they won't speak out in defence of Equalities.

    >

    > It is an utter dereliction of duty. Gay people are being attacked. The protestors are trying to stop gay people being teachers - to their children anyway. This is propagation of hate - and I don’t give a flying stuff that this hate is legitimised by some bloody book or other. Grrr.....



    100% agree. The first thing they should do is immediately adopt the No Outsiders scheme as part of the national schools policy and put the full weight of the Government behind it (ignoring for the moment the reasonable response that this Government no longer has any weight). Stop letting all the responsibility for this being carried by a few brave head teachers and make it clear there will be no backing down. Make it cross party as well to make it clear it is the whole of Parliament that is behind this not just one party.



    Then start prosecuting parents for refusing to send their kids to school. If you can fine parents for taking their kids to Spain for a week during the school term then you should sure as hell be able to prosecute them for keeping them out of school for this.

    Agree 100%. But who has the balls to do it? I would also close down any Muslim (or other denominational) school which refuses to teach this. Bigotry needs to be faced down not appeased.

    Oh - and prosecute those who are attacking or threatening the teachers.
This discussion has been closed.