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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll puts BRX on 35% with the LDs in second place 5%

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll puts BRX on 35% with the LDs in second place 5% ahead of LAB

New @IpsosMORI Euros poll completed last night sees LAB trailing LDsBREX: 35%LD: 20%LAB: 15%GRN: 10%CON: 9%CHUK: 3%UKIP: 3%

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited May 2019
    1.

    Good, I have just voted Lib Dem as a vote for a 2nd referendum (am I allowed to say how I voted on here?) so if it elevates them above Lab that's a bonus.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    2.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited May 2019
    3.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Polling day anecdata: very quiet; just me and the clerks. Only two wossnames (carrels?) out for X-marking.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    who will be 5th like the tories?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2019
    If Mori is true would be the joint worst voteshare for Labour in a national election since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918 and the worst voteshare for the Tory Party in its history.

    The Brexit Party would also win with the biggest voteshare for a third party since 1918 too
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 217
    any chance of a move against Corbyn after these election results if confirmed?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2019
    PM Modi projected to have won a landslide victory for his Hindu nationalist BJP party in India results suggest with over 300 seats out of 534

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48347081
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    felix said:

    A quick post to say how pleased I am many posters today have voted Conservative as I did last week by post. This is one lection when I hope the polls get it very very wrong! :)

    They dont deserve it, but coin toss vs CUK went their way (ld lost to cuk to get to final two)

    > @kle4 said:

    > > @kle4 said:

    >

    > > Poor little Tinkerbell

    >

    > >

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.

    >

    >

    >

    > Belief is not all you need. But nothing works without belief. Even AA didn't work until they added it.

    >

    >

    >

    > Just because it is not sufficient does not mean it is not necessary.

    >

    > The way it has the focus of criticism make it clear these types believe all would have been well if only certain people believed enough. Thats just plain wrong, and is transparently an excuse to make a complicated issue simple in it being one non believers fault.

    >

    > The vast majority of the Tory party agreed with may in the end and voted for her deal. If the others had done so we would be out now. She clearly believed in Brexit because she delivered it to them. A crap Brexit to many but even boris and JRM agreedit was Brexit.



    If she believed in it why didn't she vote for it?
    She believed in it afterwards as years of effort showed. You are demanding only those who voted the right way initially be able to lead? What if that person were a soft leaver?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    So the real battles seem to be:

    Will the LDs beat Labour?
    Will the Greens beat the Tories?
    Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?

    And just for fun..

    Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    I'm suddenly feeling a blue pullback... want to go yellow/orange to counter Farage but on reflection voting blue might actually send a similar message if not the 'bollocks' bit..

    Hmm...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Gently asked but is there any chance people could trim back quotes? The threads seem to fill up with endlessly long repetitions? Just asking that's all :blush:

    Re. the 3-1 on a 2nd Referendum, it's with Bet365 and as far as I can see it's not time-capped. Surely that's value isn't it?

    And as I mentioned, you can still get 8-1 on BP landing between 25%-29.99%. Please note that doesn't mean I think they 'will' land in that zone, just that I think it should be nearer 3 or 4-1 not 8-1.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    South Ockendon/South Africa, easy mistake to make 😳

    https://twitter.com/bbcessex/status/1131524036914307072?s=21
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2019
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > So the real battles seem to be:
    > Will the LDs beat Labour?
    > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
    > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?

    > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?

    Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > I'm suddenly feeling a blue pullback... want to go yellow/orange to counter Farage but on reflection voting blue might actually send a similar message if not the 'bollocks' bit..
    >
    > Hmm...

    The message a Tory vote sends has already been delivered. It's just a wasted vote now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    PB votes alone will see the Tories into double figures. Shame for cuk though, I hope they get more than UKIP.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > I'm suddenly feeling a blue pullback... want to go yellow/orange to counter Farage but on reflection voting blue might actually send a similar message if not the 'bollocks' bit..
    >
    > Hmm...

    It seems all the pb Tories, are voting for the Tories after all.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    > @kle4 said:
    > A quick post to say how pleased I am many posters today have voted Conservative as I did last week by post. This is one lection when I hope the polls get it very very wrong! :)
    >
    > They dont deserve it, but coin toss vs CUK went their way (ld lost to cuk to get to final two) > @kle4 said:
    >
    > > > @kle4 said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Poor little Tinkerbell
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1131454761516056576
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Belief is not all you need. But nothing works without belief. Even AA didn't work until they added it.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Just because it is not sufficient does not mean it is not necessary.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The way it has the focus of criticism make it clear these types believe all would have been well if only certain people believed enough. Thats just plain wrong, and is transparently an excuse to make a complicated issue simple in it being one non believers fault.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The vast majority of the Tory party agreed with may in the end and voted for her deal. If the others had done so we would be out now. She clearly believed in Brexit because she delivered it to them. A crap Brexit to many but even boris and JRM agreedit was Brexit.
    >
    >
    >
    > If she believed in it why didn't she vote for it?
    >
    > She believed in it afterwards as years of effort showed. You are demanding only those who voted the right way initially be able to lead? What if that person were a soft leaver?

    I have made no such demand at all. And as a soft leaver I would be delighted to have someone of a similar ilk running things.

    But May clearly never understood Brexit and seemed to share Mr Meek's view that the only thing that mattered to those who voted Brexit was immigration - perhaps because she had spent so long thrashing about trying to be mean to immigrants whilst she was Home Secretary. Having someone in charge who actually understood why people voted for Brexit and was willing to try and deal with those issues rather than just being mean to foreigners would have gone a long way to making things easier.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > So the real battles seem to be:
    >
    > Will the LDs beat Labour?
    > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
    > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
    >
    > And just for fun..
    >
    > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
    >

    Also, which polling company will win the pin the tail on the donkey award for closest poll to the result? (Is this more or less meaningless than the fierce battle between UKIP, CUK & SNP for 6th place?)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > So the real battles seem to be:
    > > Will the LDs beat Labour?
    > > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
    > > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
    >
    > > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
    >
    > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.

    No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.

    But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.

    Oh - gotcha. Sorry.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    > @nunuone said:
    > > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > > I'm suddenly feeling a blue pullback... want to go yellow/orange to counter Farage but on reflection voting blue might actually send a similar message if not the 'bollocks' bit..
    > >
    > > Hmm...
    >
    > It seems all the pb Tories, are voting for the Tories after all.

    OK, I'm in the SE group so that's Dan Hannan which means I'm voting Lib Dem after all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    > @kle4 said:

    > A quick post to say how pleased I am many posters today have voted Conservative as I did last week by post. This is one lection when I hope the polls get it very very wrong! :)

    >

    > They dont deserve it, but coin toss vs CUK went their way (ld lost to cuk to get to final two) > @kle4 said:

    >

    > > > @kle4 said:

    >


    > > >



    >

    >

    >


    > > > These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.

    >


    > > Belief is not all you need. But nothing works without belief. Even AA didn't work until they added it.

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > The way it has the focus of criticism make it clear these
    > If she believed in it why didn't she vote for it?

    >

    > She believed in it afterwards as years of effort showed. You are demanding only those who voted the right way initially be able to lead? What if that person were a soft leaver?



    I have made no such demand at all. And as a soft leaver I would be delighted to have someone of a similar ilk running things.



    But May clearly never understood Brexit and seemed to share Mr Meek's view that the only thing that mattered to those who voted Brexit was immigration - perhaps because she had spent so long thrashing about trying to be mean to immigrants whilst she was Home Secretary. Having someone in charge who actually understood why people voted for Brexit and was willing to try and deal with those issues rather than just being mean to foreigners would have gone a long way to making things easier.
    Perhaps. But that is not the nuanced view most comments decrying a lack of belief seem to care about. Indeed because people did vote Brexit for different reasons the wrong kind of leaver would face the same criticism from the no deal hardliners.

    And I didn't mean you literally demanded such. But it was implied even if not intended, suggesting one can only believe in it if voting for it initially. As Farage and co show they dont trust even those if they switched late .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    > @kle4 said:
    > PB votes alone will see the Tories into double figures. Shame for cuk though, I hope they get more than UKIP.

    PB votes cast will be more Tory and LD than the national average I expect but less Brexit Party and about average for Labour, the Greens and SNP
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    >
    > > A quick post to say how pleased I am many posters today have voted Conservative as I did last week by post. This is one lection when I hope the polls get it very very wrong! :)
    >
    > >
    >
    > > They dont deserve it, but coin toss vs CUK went their way (ld lost to cuk to get to final two) > @kle4 said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > @kle4 said:
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1131454761516056576
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    > > > > These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    > > > Belief is not all you need. But nothing works without belief. Even AA didn't work until they added it.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > The way it has the focus of criticism make it clear these
    > > If she believed in it why didn't she vote for it?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > She believed in it afterwards as years of effort showed. You are demanding only those who voted the right way initially be able to lead? What if that person were a soft leaver?
    >
    >
    >
    > I have made no such demand at all. And as a soft leaver I would be delighted to have someone of a similar ilk running things.
    >
    >
    >
    > But May clearly never understood Brexit and seemed to share Mr Meek's view that the only thing that mattered to those who voted Brexit was immigration - perhaps because she had spent so long thrashing about trying to be mean to immigrants whilst she was Home Secretary. Having someone in charge who actually understood why people voted for Brexit and was willing to try and deal with those issues rather than just being mean to foreigners would have gone a long way to making things easier.
    >
    > Perhaps. But that is not the nuanced view most comments decrying a lack of belief seem to care about. Indeed because people did vote Brexit for different reasons the wrong kind of leaver would face the same criticism from the no deal hardliners.
    >
    > And I didn't mean you literally demanded such. But it was implied even if not intended, suggesting one can only believe in it if voting for it initially. As Farage and co show they dont trust even those if they switched late .

    That's alright. I don't trust Farage :)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Interesting poll. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was correct.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > Gently asked but is there any chance people could trim back quotes? The threads seem to fill up with endlessly long repetitions? Just asking that's all :blush:

    The problem is made much worse by mixing quote styles.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I see there are many instances of EU citizens being denied the vote. Really poor administration. Far more important than the government's obsession with voter ID.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @Jonathan said:
    > Interesting poll. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was correct.

    I wouldn't be surprised if any of them were correct. There's huge uncertainty
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    pb-ers seem determined to make TSE's "Tories under 10%" a losing bet....
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Gently asked but is there any chance people could trim back quotes? The threads seem to fill up with endlessly long repetitions? Just asking that's all :blush:



    Re. the 3-1 on a 2nd Referendum, it's with Bet365 and as far as I can see it's not time-capped. Surely that's value isn't it?



    And as I mentioned, you can still get 8-1 on BP landing between 25%-29.99%. Please note that doesn't mean I think they 'will' land in that zone, just that I think it should be nearer 3 or 4-1 not 8-1.

    B365 are taking 1/3 there will never be another referendum on the issue before the end of time? That doesn’t seem a nice bet to have
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Mysticrose said:
    > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > > So the real battles seem to be:
    > > > Will the LDs beat Labour?
    > > > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
    > > > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
    > >
    > > > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
    > >
    > > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
    >
    > No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.
    >
    > But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.

    It'll be about 5% nationally, maybe slightly more if the SNP clean up
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1131530609690587137

    Not the Boris nominations pile then?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    isam said:

    Gently asked but is there any chance people could trim back quotes? The threads seem to fill up with endlessly long repetitions? Just asking that's all :blush:



    Re. the 3-1 on a 2nd Referendum, it's with Bet365 and as far as I can see it's not time-capped. Surely that's value isn't it?



    And as I mentioned, you can still get 8-1 on BP landing between 25%-29.99%. Please note that doesn't mean I think they 'will' land in that zone, just that I think it should be nearer 3 or 4-1 not 8-1.

    B365 are taking 1/3 there will never be another referendum on the issue before the end of time? That doesn’t seem a nice bet to have
    It wasn’t really that hard to decipher the time limit after all 🙄


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    If true the poll underlines hoe split we are with about a third each for Hard Brexit, Remain, Compromise.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    > @HYUFD said:
    > If Mori is true would be the joint worst voteshare for Labour in a national election since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918 and the worst voteshare for the Tory Party in its history.
    >
    > The Brexit Party would also win with the biggest voteshare for a third party since 1918 too

    Universal suffrage introduced in the UK in 1928
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > > @Mysticrose said:
    > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > > > So the real battles seem to be:
    > > > > Will the LDs beat Labour?
    > > > > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
    > > > > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
    > > >
    > > > > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
    > > >
    > > > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
    > >
    > > No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.
    > >
    > > But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.
    >
    > It'll be about 5% nationally, maybe slightly more if the SNP clean up

    Ta. So just about evenly split then. At least on the basis of this poll.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    > @kamski said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > If Mori is true would be the joint worst voteshare for Labour in a national election since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918 and the worst voteshare for the Tory Party in its history.
    > >
    > > The Brexit Party would also win with the biggest voteshare for a third party since 1918 too
    >
    > Universal suffrage introduced in the UK in 1928

    OK, fair enough if you include women, for men it was 1918
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @Ishmael_Z said:
    > 1.
    >
    > Good, I have just voted Lib Dem as a vote for a 2nd referendum (am I allowed to say how I voted on here?) so if it elevates them above Lab that's a bonus.

    Interesting question. Guardian says they don't want people commenting with who they voted for on their live blog because they're not allowed to publish that information. Does that apply to pb too?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2019


    > > > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.

    > >

    > > No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.

    > >

    > > But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.

    >

    > It'll be about 5% nationally, maybe slightly more if the SNP clean up



    Ta. So just about evenly split then. At least on the basis of this poll.

    BXP + UKIP has beaten LD+GREEN+CUK+SNP+PC in almost all of the last 10 polls I think
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited May 2019
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @kamski said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > If Mori is true would be the joint worst voteshare for Labour in a national election since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918 and the worst voteshare for the Tory Party in its history.
    > > >
    > > > The Brexit Party would also win with the biggest voteshare for a third party since 1918 too
    > >
    > > Universal suffrage introduced in the UK in 1928
    >
    > OK, fair enough if you include women, for men it was 1918


    Lol, C21st Tory.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Just for the record, what is the lowest national vote share achieved by the Tories and/or Labour since ever/1918?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Didn’t get our postal vote in Spain two less for Lib Dems
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    My hunch is that Labour will do worse than the poll. Would not be surprised if the Tories beat Labour.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @isam said:

    > Ta. So just about evenly split then. At least on the basis of this poll.
    >
    > BXP + UKIP has beaten LD+GREEN+CUK+SNP+PC in almost all of the last 10 polls I think

    Yes, sometimes by large margins. Some of the polling companies will have pinned the donkey's tail to the ass's head - but which ones?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    isam said:


    > > > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.

    > >

    > > No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.

    > >

    > > But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.

    >

    > It'll be about 5% nationally, maybe slightly more if the SNP clean up



    Ta. So just about evenly split then. At least on the basis of this poll.

    BXP + UKIP has beaten LD+GREEN+CUK+SNP+PC in almost all of the last 10 polls I think
    If it is tight between the two extremes @williamglenn is probably right to say the next GE could be between BXP and LD

    I think it would be great if we had 4 parties in the 20s in terms of % at a GE
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2019
    [deleted]
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2019
    > @isam said:

    > I think it would be great if we had 4 parties in the 20s in terms of % at a GE

    4 parties in the 20s works well for Labour - perhaps that's their strategy ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Bliar Blair got a majority in 2005 on 35%...

    EDIT: Oops :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    HYUFD said:
    It's like the Weimar era: vote far right to keep out the communists and vice versa.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233

    Just for the record, what is the lowest national vote share achieved by the Tories and/or Labour since ever/1918?

    Before WW2 the numbers are awkward because both Liberals and Labour split at one point. From memory, I think the National Government of 1932 or 1935 had an enormous majority - over 200 seats.In the early years when the Libs were dying and Lab was struggling to get off the ground, things were not as they became post WW2.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Electoral calculus @ 24% each

    Lab 237, Con 195, Brexit 80, Lib Dem 62
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    HYUFD said:

    PM Modi projected to have won a landslide victory for his Hindu nationalist BJP party in India results suggest with over 300 seats out of 534



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48347081

    http://results.eci.gov.in/pc/en/partywise/index.htm
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > So the real battles seem to be:
    >
    > Will the LDs beat Labour?
    > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
    > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
    >
    > And just for fun..
    >
    > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
    >
    >

    For me
    Yes
    No
    Who cares?
    Almost certainly.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1131530737805602816

    Gotta love these Union Dividends.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744

    The 1990s just called and want Mel Stride's website back.
    http://melstridemp.com/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Electoral calculus @ 24% each
    >
    > Lab 237, Con 195, Brexit 80, Lib Dem 62
    >
    >

    Crumbs. That's even more deadlocked than right now.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    > @isam said:
    > > > > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > It'll be about 5% nationally, maybe slightly more if the SNP clean up
    >
    >
    >
    > Ta. So just about evenly split then. At least on the basis of this poll.
    >
    > BXP + UKIP has beaten LD+GREEN+CUK+SNP+PC in almost all of the last 10 polls I think
    >
    > If it is tight between the two extremes @williamglenn is probably right to say the next GE could be between BXP and LD
    >
    > I think it would be great if we had 4 parties in the 20s in terms of % at a GE

    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131531918019825664

    Mel Stride for next PM.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    If this poll is correct 35% of people in this country are happy to self harm ourselves. Weird. Still, it does say that the rest are not convinced by No Deal Brexit = no mandate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744

    I probably pay more attention to politics than is healthy, let alone normal and I cannot recall a single interview, comment, article or, well, anything from him. It would be a slight overstatement to say that I have never heard of him but only slight.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744
    >
    > The 1990s just called and want Mel Stride's website back.
    > http://melstridemp.com/
    >

    not enough marquees
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @dixiedean I'm not sure the Tories would get 195 seats if that was the real result. Labour's structure is set up beautifully for resilience below about seat no 200 or so though.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744

    Remainer take over of the government continues then...

    Just voted Brexit Party.

    Turnout seems "brisk" for an EU election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    I probably pay more attention to politics than is healthy, let alone normal and I cannot recall a single interview, comment, article or, well, anything from him. It would be a slight overstatement to say that I have never heard of him but only slight.

    I thought Mel was a woman...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @StuartDickson said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1131530737805602816
    >
    > Gotta love these Union Dividends.

    IF you ever leave - well Scotland, you have already left if I recall?

    Can't wait to see how your new currency gets on.

    Oh wait, you will be in the Euro won't you.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited May 2019
    Important question facing Johnson / Raab / Leadsom / any leadership contender from that side of Brexit debate:

    I'm sure they'll say they'll renegotiate with the EU but will they stick to 31 October as Exit Date come what may?

    We don't yet know leadership election timetable but it's likely that they won't become PM till late July at the earliest and possibly later. Even if it's late July as far as Parliament is concerned that only leaves a very short sitting in early Sept + the month of Oct.

    So will they cast iron promise to renegotiate and put all legislation through Parliament by 31 Oct or will they let Exit Date slip?

    This looks like a very big decision that could swing the election - because if anyone says they may let date slip then worry will be it'll be back to a repeat of the last few months. But if they cast iron promise 31 Oct then they are going to have very little time.

    Finally if they go for 31 Oct and get blocked in Parliament in late Oct then we are looking at a late Nov / early Dec GE which would be completely unprecedented in modern times.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1131533040906321920?s=20

    Narendra Modi is looking at one of his officials and is saying " are we meant to take this clown seriously?"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2019
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744
    >
    > I probably pay more attention to politics than is healthy, let alone normal and I cannot recall a single interview, comment, article or, well, anything from him. It would be a slight overstatement to say that I have never heard of him but only slight.

    Probably why May appointed him he was also a Remainer
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @HYUFD said:
    > twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20

    It always seems a bit off when unelected peers give advice on how to vote.

    Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May but at least they got themselves elected.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Fair play for Nige putting a grand down on BXP when they were 3-1.

    Stonking bet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2019
    I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
    >
    > It always seems a bit off when unelected peers give advice on how to vote.
    >
    > Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May but at least they got themselves elected.

    I still think Sugar could run for Mayor of London next year, he hates Sadiq Khan
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.

    Do you mean the bloke wearing a brexit party rosette or is this yet another one?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1131415869605777409?s=20

    Hilarious how some idiots think voting for a party that is fascist in all but name is a vote for democracy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.

    Daily Mail not accepting comments on the article...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
    > >
    > > It always seems a bit off when unelected peers give advice on how to vote.
    > >
    > > Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May but at least they got themselves elected.
    >
    > I still think Sugar could run for Mayor of London next year, he hates Sadiq Khan

    Would certainly add a bit of spice to at the moment what will be an easy re-election for Khan.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Fair play for Nige putting a grand down on BXP when they were 3-1.


    Stonking bet.

    And it was a stroke of genius to stage a diversionary token march from Sunderland to London to bump up the odds and convince us all that he had no chance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2019
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1131533040906321920?s=20
    >
    > Narendra Modi is looking at one of his officials and is saying " are we meant to take this clown seriously?"

    They seemed to enjoy themselves here


    https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/986388552710844417?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1131415869605777409?s=20
    >
    > Hilarious how some idiots think voting for a party that is fascist in all but name is a vote for democracy.

    Brexit party is a fascist party?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1131513167975256064
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
    >
    > It always seems a bit off when unelected peers give advice on how to vote.
    >
    > Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May but at least they got themselves elected.

    I'm not sure that's a line I'd like to push too hard. Conservative selection processes for a long time worked on the basis that if you went to a good school, read (preferably PPE) at Oxbridge and then arrived for the meeting in a helicopter you were a shoo-in. That's a slight exaggeration but not entirely. I grew up in a household which was close to the action and this was pretty much the sum of it.

    There are, likewise, a significant number of solid and safe Labour seats. Get the mechanics of support right and you, almost, had a job for life.

    The point here is that a certain % of MPs, at least up until Brexit, didn't have to do an awful lot in life before they landed themselves a fairly plum job.

    Contrast that with a guy who worked his way up from nothing, flogging bits and pieces out the back of a van, into a multi-national entrepreneur. Whatever you think of Alan Sugar, he has been a huge success story overall.

    My viewpoint post the Brexit fiasco is that I'd like to hear a lot less from MPs and a lot more from people who have made their way in life outside the House of Commons.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    > @Floater said:
    > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1131530737805602816
    > >
    > > Gotta love these Union Dividends.
    >
    > IF you ever leave - well Scotland, you have already left if I recall?
    >
    > Can't wait to see how your new currency gets on.
    >
    > Oh wait, you will be in the Euro won't you.

    Sterling is currently down 1/10th of 1 cent against the Euro today.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1131476448659722240?s=20
    >
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131521879716573184?s=20
    >
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131522332911181826?s=20

    In which case the new PM could just prorogue. Then we'd have the fun spectacle of John Bercow trying to run a sham session under squatters rights no doubt.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2019
    MikeL said:

    Important question facing Johnson / Raab / Leadsom / any leadership contender from that side of Brexit debate:

    I'm sure they'll say they'll renegotiate with the EU but will they stick to 31 October as Exit Date come what may?

    We don't yet know leadership election timetable but it's likely that they won't become PM till late July at the earliest and possibly later. Even if it's late July as far as Parliament is concerned that only leaves a very short sitting in early Sept + the month of Oct.

    So will they cast iron promise to renegotiate and put all legislation through Parliament by 31 Oct or will they let Exit Date slip?

    This looks like a very big decision that could swing the election - because if anyone says they may let date slip then worry will be it'll be back to a repeat of the last few months. But if they cast iron promise 31 Oct then they are going to have very little time.

    Finally if they go for 31 Oct and get blocked in Parliament in late Oct then we are looking at a late Nov / early Dec GE which would be completely unprecedented in modern times.

    All good points. Amongst all the excitement, we shouldn't lose track of the fact that ditching Theresa May makes not a ha'porth of difference to the fundamental problem; it just wastes more time.

    What's most puzzling is that this must be completely obvious to her many wannabe successors. Why does any of them want a job which is overwhelmingly likely to end in ignominious failure within a few months?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1131513167975256064

    It is disgraceful, but let us get this straight. As a member of the Brexit Party he is not advocating honouring the result of the referendum. He wants a much more extreme version of that result.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > @dixiedean I'm not sure the Tories would get 195 seats if that was the real result. Labour's structure is set up beautifully for resilience below about seat no 200 or so though.

    Yes indeed. Just put the IPSOS poll in the header into Baxter, due to boredom. Brexit get a 290 seat majority, but, remarkably, Corbyn is LOTO with 15% of the vote, but 75 seats! Con get 0!
    Not saying that is at all likely in any way. Merely evidence how Labour benefit over the Tories with similar votes the lower the vote share goes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2019
    Having gone and done my civic duty, I have to say that Brexit Party logo on the ballot paper is a incredibly effective at standing out / drawing attention among the black and white-ness of the long list of options (and it wasn't the box I was looking for).

    Whoever came up with it should get themselves a gig in the advertising.
This discussion has been closed.