> @KentRising said: > > @AndyJS said: > > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister. > > The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
I was very unhappy when she became PM, not primarily because of her views on Brexit but because her time at the Home Office marked her out to have a very bad combination of attributes - authoritarianism, incompetence and xenophobia. Anyone who saw how badly she handled things at the Home Office could see she was going to make a right pigs ear of Government in general and Brexit in particular and so it proved.
I think this is absolutely right. You would have to be inhuman to fail to be moved by her speech today but these seeds were sown many years ago and were exacerbated post-Referendum.
That is the context that should be remembered when we see her humanity today and, rightly, are moved by it.
May made a series of bad choices that brought her to this point. She caved on the EU's timing of how the deal negotiations would proceed; she agreed the price of the deal before knowing what we would get for that; she gave up the Irish back-stop when the only possible response from our negotiators was "piss off"; she kept faith with a senior negotiator who was bringing back deal terms that any PM with political nous would have known could not get through the House. And still kept faith when that deal received the biggest Westminster raspberry of all time.
News reaches me that Conservative grandees are preparing legislation preventing Mike Smithson from taking holidays until the 2022 general election.
In compensation and reflecting on modern compassionate conservatism Mr Smithson is to be offered a five year subscription to the Belgravia Hair Centre, the Freedom of Bedford and funding for a new PhD course at Oxford University researching the history, philosophy and theory of bar charts.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @isam said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first). > > > > Money to be made? > > > > > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party? > > CAREFUL -- do not confuse the party leadership (which you are betting on) with remaining as Prime Minister until a successor is found.
If I resign my job, I don't official leave the position until a replacement is found and I stop doing the job. Resignation isn't the same as leaving. If there is no interim leader surely she leader until there is a new one.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > There won't be one? > > The Tory contest won't be concluded on 7th June
She resigns as Con leader on 7th June triggering a leadership election. The post will remain unfilled until her successor is chosen.
She will stay as PM until her successor is chosen then she will go an inform the Queen that she's standing down as PM and the Monarch must send for... whoever the new leader is.
Can anyone stop Boris? His self restraint over recent weeks will pay some dividends. I think he will prove unstoppable but the record of ante post favourites in the Tory party is very poor.
> @KentRising said: > > @AndyJS said: > > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister. > > The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
For the first 3 weeks she retained a big poll lead.
> @Sagand said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > @isam said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first). > > > > > > Money to be made? > > > > > > > > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party? > > > > CAREFUL -- do not confuse the party leadership (which you are betting on) with remaining as Prime Minister until a successor is found. > > If I resign my job, I don't official leave the position until a replacement is found and I stop doing the job. Resignation isn't the same as leaving. If there is no interim leader surely she leader until there is a new one.
I'm not sure that is correct at all.
I can resign on notice and my successor is irrelevant. As Party leader, she doesn't have a notice period.
There’ll be a vacancy in Maidenhead at the next election (probably)
If Boris-Rudd happens, then the contest is over before it begins. I guess CoE will be the deal, with huge leeway over domestic day-to-day policy, while Boris gets on with EU.
Trying to steer a figurehead like that is risky - they start to have minds of their own.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
> @anothernick said: > > @JonCisBack said: > > Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all. > > > > Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May. > > Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her. --------------------- And she chose to pick up the cards, having already seen them.
> @DavidL said: > Can anyone stop Boris? His self restraint over recent weeks will pay some dividends. I think he will prove unstoppable but the record of ante post favourites in the Tory party is very poor.
It will be Boris he is the only hope now but outsider Steve Baker who could be the Tory Corbyn
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
> @DavidL said: > Can anyone stop Boris? His self restraint over recent weeks will pay some dividends. I think he will prove unstoppable but the record of ante post favourites in the Tory party is very poor.
He wins if he makes the final 2 and I'm not sure MPs would be wise to stop him if they want to keep support in the wider party.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question
> @MarqueeMark said: > May made a series of bad choices that brought her to this point. She caved on the EU's timing of how the deal negotiations would proceed; she agreed the price of the deal before knowing what we would get for that; she gave up the Irish back-stop when the only possible response from our negotiators was "piss off"; she kept faith with a senior negotiator who was bringing back deal terms that any PM with political nous would have known could not get through the House. And still kept faith when that deal received the biggest Westminster raspberry of all time.
If you believe Barnier will cave in now and scrap the backstop you are a braver man than me, we are heading sadly for No Deal v Revoke civil war now unless by some miracle the Withdrawal Agreement passes before October
As an outcome to all of this, I wouldn't be surprised if the WAB does pass substantially unchanged from all of this at some point in the near future. If and when that does happen I hope people consistently point out the hypocrisy of the MPs who were willing to die on a hill to prevent it getting through backing down because it's a Leaver PM in charge.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
What if the new leader can't command the confidence of the house? She might be able to cling on in Number 10 yet.
> @JosiasJessop said: > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*) > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
Are they?
We are all flawed as people. Not in an original sin sort of way, but simply that being a person is hard and were all make mistakes.
I don't think there can be any doubt that she was a very poor PM. Her two stated objectives were to deliver Brexit (not done) and help the JAMs (being increasingly shafted by universal credit). What is the contrary case?
On Brexit you might argue that it was difficult to handle well, but I don't think you suffer a record Commons defeat on the issue and avoid a judgement that you handled it poorly. How else can you judge these things?
Much as I hate the idea, I do think that it is time a Brexiter takes charge. they need to own the mess they have created, both for the country and the Conservative Party. I will still vote "anyone but Boris" and then I will resign my membership
There’ll be a vacancy in Maidenhead at the next election (probably)
If Boris-Rudd happens, then the contest is over before it begins. I guess CoE will be the deal, with huge leeway over domestic day-to-day policy, while Boris gets on with EU.
Trying to steer a figurehead like that is risky - they start to have minds of their own.
Quite. Similar comments were made about the second Bush and Trump.
> @williamglenn said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > What if the new leader can't command the confidence of the house? She might be able to cling on in Number 10 yet.
So long as it isn't as party leader I don't really care for betting purposes.
The markets have not even blinked. Sterling and FTSE both up. Normally the uncertainty of a PM resignation would have some effect but even her resignation has not increased the level of uncertainty we were already living with.
> @AndyJS said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister. > > > > The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever. > > For the first 3 weeks she retained a big poll lead.
And the length of the campaign was dictated by the FTPA procedures, another legacy of Cameron's blundering. Before the FTPA a general election campaign could run for as little as three weeks.
> @rottenborough said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > Amber Rudd not running. > > > > > > PM loses seat isn't a good look > > > > There’ll be a vacancy in Maidenhead at the next election (probably) > > If Boris-Rudd happens, then the contest is over before it begins. I guess CoE will be the deal, with huge leeway over domestic day-to-day policy, while Boris gets on with EU.
As down thread, I think the days of no contest leadership elections are over for the time being - Brown and May were disasters. The Tories owe it to the country to have a thorough leadership contest which truly tests and stretches all contenders' qualities (or lack of them).
> @AndyJS said: > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
Weak of 1922 to agree to this timetable. She was playing them for fools for the last few weeks, and they've let her get away with it to the last.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*) > > > > > > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this. > > > > > > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years. > > > > > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals. > > > > She is also far better than the utterly contemptible Corbyn, I would vote for the Devil to beat him now. He always put party politics above the national interest > > That's the point though: he doesn't put party politics above the national interest. If he did, then Labour would be way ahead in the polls. > > Corbyn puts his warped ideology ahead of party politics and the national interest. > > And yet he might soon be PM.
He does because he knows he cannot become PM without Labour Leave seats under FPTP, wining huge majorities in inner city Remain seats is not enough.
However Labour members and MPs are losing patience and he could yet be toppled if Labour collapse on Sunday in the Euro elections and Corbyn still refuses to commit to EUref2.
It may yet be a Boris v Starmer next general election
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > Much as I hate the idea, I do think that it is time a Brexiter takes charge. they need to own the mess they have created, both for the country and the Conservative Party. I will still vote "anyone but Boris" and then I will resign my membership
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > In foreign news. > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/antelava/status/1131838636591386626 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Rapidly losing whatever credit he has remaining with the left, endorsing the Brexit party was bad enough. > > > > He's Jezz's mate though isn't he. This is the kind of loyalty to Labour leaders we used to get. > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/185542633056239616 > > > > He was supporting Brexit party in the Euros just gone, so no. > > I mean in political terms anyway not against people having personal relationships across political divides.
The man that sucks up to SinnFein IRA and Hamas sucks up to the man that sucked up to Saddam Hussein. Repulsive, the pair of them.
She was just one of very few Remain MPs who did compromise. Her Deal was not strong enough for the ERG and not soft enough for the Remainers, I’d say it were those two factions who failed to compromise
Indeed it was a sad end, but she made the serious political errors that brought us to this point.
That may be so, certainly her inadequacies are crucial to that, but the theory her language on a meaningless phrase was significant in basically fooling people toward no deal is laughable. This concept of legitimising things often looks that way to me, a way of blaming one person for the views of others.
> @williamglenn said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > What if the new leader can't command the confidence of the house? She might be able to cling on in Number 10 yet.
We would be in the hands of the FTPA, and would enter a GE but with the new party leader leading the Tories, and expelling those that voted no confidence
> @TudorRose said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @JonCisBack said: > > > Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all. > > > > > > Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May. > > > > Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her. > --------------------- > And she chose to pick up the cards, having already seen them. >
Had she won a landslide in 2017 that the polls initially predicted, we would have left in March if not sooner and possibly on better terms. The misjudgement wasn't in calling an election, it was being so casual, underprepared and piss poor in it. Even so, nobody foresaw how effective Corbyn and Labour would be at engaging with a new bunch of voters and getting them out to deny what still should have been a big Tory win.
How things quickly change. I fear we are set for leftie government now for most of the rest of my lifetime.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > > > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question > > Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader?
I have spoken on this a few times recently. I am looking forward to a proper leadership contest and will listen to all the candidates and consider my options. I will not vote for Boris in the membership election but if he wins then the party need to come together and if he appoints Amber Rudd as COE then I would be content to see how matters develop. Also his cabinet appointments will be very important to strike a a balance
> He was supporting Brexit party in the Euros just gone, so no. > > I mean in political terms anyway not against people having personal relationships across political divides.
Curious that you're ok with the Labour MPs supporting candidates that stand against Labour?
You really need to start paying attention to what is going on here. The far left and right, let's call them the far out, are deliberately conspiring to flame the division that is ripping the country and politics apart. And your man is connected to it.
> @brokenwheel said: > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else. >
Wonder whether we'll get a rethink on all of the "nannying" and puritanism?
> @Bob__Sykes said: > > @TudorRose said: > > > @anothernick said: > > > > @JonCisBack said: > > > > Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all. > > > > > > > > Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May. > > > > > > Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her. > > --------------------- > > And she chose to pick up the cards, having already seen them. > > > > Had she won a landslide in 2017 that the polls initially predicted, we would have left in March if not sooner and possibly on better terms. The misjudgement wasn't in calling an election, it was being so casual, underprepared and piss poor in it. Even so, nobody foresaw how effective Corbyn and Labour would be at engaging with a new bunch of voters and getting them out to deny what still should have been a big Tory win. > > How things quickly change. I fear we are set for leftie government now for most of the rest of my lifetime. > > I'm 42....
With labour polling in the 20s?! Not a chance of it. One election cycle perhaps.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > > > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > > > > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > > > > > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question > > > > Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader? > > I have spoken on this a few times recently. I am looking forward to a proper leadership contest and will listen to all the candidates and consider my options. I will not vote for Boris in the membership election but if he wins then the party need to come together and if he appoints Amber Rudd as COE then I would be content to see how matters develop. Also his cabinet appointments will be very important to strike a a balance
So, let's not beat around the bush. You've changed your mind. (Which is a good trait BTW). You had said that you would leave in Boris became leader, couldn't vote Conservative and generally had some very harsh words to say about him.
The funny thing about the Boris bandwagon is that (has everyone forgotten?) in 2016 he only decided at the last minute to tie his colours to the Brexit mast. He's not a true Brexiter, he's not a true right-winger, he's an opportunist. As such, the Right of the party is taking a chance by supporting him. He has populist charisma but he is a loose cannon, and although he seems to have a lot in common with Trump, I think he's likely to disappoint the Right much more than Trump has.
The person the Remainers fear most is Dominic Raab who sounds as if he really means no deal. So Remainers will ensure Boris is in the last two. Probably Boris v. Raab and the membership will pick Boris.
But Boris needs to be careful what he says to the membership. Raab will push him to be clear on no deal. But Boris can lie convincingly, and if Amber Rudd is on his team, it will give comfort to the Remainers.
So Boris is PM in September. I don't think he will do a deal with Farage. Farage won't trust him and Boris won't want to be locked into a no deal scenario.
Does he go for a GE in October? I suppose it depends on what sort of bounce he gets in the polls. But a GE is very high risk, so probably no.
Whether there is a GE or not, I think, as new PM, he will ask the EU for an extension and it will be granted. We won't be leaving the EU this year. The Brexit Party will thrive and split the Tory vote, so no GE until 2022.
In the meanwhile, nothing will have changed except Boris will be happy.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > > > > > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > > > > > > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > > > > > > > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question > > > > > > Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader? > > > > I have spoken on this a few times recently. I am looking forward to a proper leadership contest and will listen to all the candidates and consider my options. I will not vote for Boris in the membership election but if he wins then the party need to come together and if he appoints Amber Rudd as COE then I would be content to see how matters develop. Also his cabinet appointments will be very important to strike a a balance > > So, let's not beat around the bush. You've changed your mind. (Which is a good trait BTW). You had said that you would leave in Boris became leader, couldn't vote Conservative and generally had some very harsh words to say about him. >
I will not vote for him but if he is elected in a fair and proper manner and he seeks to heal some of the wounds then I see no reason why I should just leave the party and open a door for Corbyn
> @brokenwheel said: > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. > I can. She recognized the foolishness of a No Deal Brexit and shied away from it despite knowing that it would have made her popular with the membership of her party.
The funny thing about the Boris bandwagon is that (has everyone forgotten?) in 2016 he only decided at the last minute to tie his colours to the Brexit mast. He's not a true Brexiter, he's not a true right-winger, he's an opportunist. As such, the Right of the party is taking a chance by supporting him. He has populist charisma but he is a loose cannon, and although he seems to have a lot in common with Trump, I think he's likely to disappoint the Right much more than Trump has.
I feel as certain today as I did three years ago that in a democracy, if you give people a choice you have a duty to implement what they decide.I have done my best to do that. I negotiated the terms of our exit and a new relationship with our closest neighbours that protects jobs, our security and our Union. I have done everything I can to convince MPs to back that deal. Sadly, I have not been able to do so.
The dogs that don't bark are the most interesting. No mention of red lines or anything to be said in favour of Brexit, beyond the fact of people voting for it.
Theresa May eventually accepted the realities of Brexit, which aren't in fact nice. The next Tory PM will have maybe two months, not two years, to abandon the promises of their candidature, to end up in the same place.
> I will not vote for him but if he is elected in a fair and proper manner and he seeks to heal some of the wounds then I see no reason why I should just leave the party and open a door for Corbyn
That's quite a change from where you were. You said he was dangerous. What changed your mind?
The two Tory leaders elected by coronation, Michael Howard and Theresa May, didn't last long in the job. Perhaps a good reason not to have another coronation.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > > > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > > > > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > > > > > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question > > > > Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader? > > I have spoken on this a few times recently. I am looking forward to a proper leadership contest and will listen to all the candidates and consider my options. I will not vote for Boris in the membership election but if he wins then the party need to come together and if he appoints Amber Rudd as COE then I would be content to see how matters develop. Also his cabinet appointments will be very important to strike a a balance
If his first priority is Brexit, I can't see how he can risk having any bolshy Remainers in his cabinet at all, until it's sorted.
I'd be more interested to hear Watson's views on what's come out in court about Operation Midland, and his own poisoned role in helping a paedophile to slander Conservative politicians ...
Whoever is leader, however committed they are to No Deal, they will need to compromise with reality, which will keep them on the back foot against Nigel Farage.
It will be almost impossible to prevent further polarisation and the break down of the Tory party.
> @brokenwheel said: > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else. > > Of course none of the others will be any better.
The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending.
Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough.
> @AndyJS said: > The two Tory leaders elected by coronation, Michael Howard and Theresa May, didn't last long in the job. Perhaps a good reason not to have another coronation.
In fairness the Howard thing and the May thing were two very different things. Howard was basically an emergency caretaker ahead of the 2005 election with the expectation he'd stand down after it, which he did in autumn 2005 after a very well organised and thorough leadership contest.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @Bob__Sykes said: > > > @TudorRose said: > > > > @anothernick said: > > > > > @JonCisBack said: > > > > > Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all. > > > > > > > > > > Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May. > > > > > > > > Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her. > > > --------------------- > > > And she chose to pick up the cards, having already seen them. > > > > > > > Had she won a landslide in 2017 that the polls initially predicted, we would have left in March if not sooner and possibly on better terms. The misjudgement wasn't in calling an election, it was being so casual, underprepared and piss poor in it. Even so, nobody foresaw how effective Corbyn and Labour would be at engaging with a new bunch of voters and getting them out to deny what still should have been a big Tory win. > > > > How things quickly change. I fear we are set for leftie government now for most of the rest of my lifetime. > > > > I'm 42.... > > With labour polling in the 20s?! Not a chance of it. One election cycle perhaps.
After latest Survation and Opinium polls: Con on 25%, Lab on 29%, LD on 16%, Brexit on 19%, Green on 5%.
Seats
Con 235 Lab 312 LD 22 Brexit 5 Green 1 PC 4 SNP 53 NI 18
> @williamglenn said: > Whoever is leader, however committed they are to No Deal, they will need to compromise with reality, which will keep them on the back foot against Nigel Farage. > > It will be almost impossible to prevent further polarisation and the break down of the Tory party.
> @Dadge said: > > @isam said: > > Peter Bone says BORIS! > > The funny thing about the Boris bandwagon is that (has everyone forgotten?) in 2016 he only decided at the last minute to tie his colours to the Brexit mast. He's not a true Brexiter, he's not a true right-winger, he's an opportunist. As such, the Right of the party is taking a chance by supporting him. He has populist charisma but he is a loose cannon, and although he seems to have a lot in common with Trump, I think he's likely to disappoint the Right much more than Trump has.
> @KentRising said: > > In fairness the Howard thing and the May thing were two very different things. Howard was basically an emergency caretaker ahead of the 2005 election with the expectation he'd stand down after it, which he did in autumn 2005 after a very well organised and thorough leadership contest. -------
Yes, although ironically Howard probably didn't do any better electorally than IDS would have done, but he managed to make the party look more like a plausible opposition.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*) > > > > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this. > > > > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years. > > > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals. > > I would suggest very poorly. > > I was very unhappy when she became PM, not primarily because of her views on Brexit but because her time at the Home Office marked her out to have a very bad combination of attributes - authoritarianism, incompetence and xenophobia. Anyone who saw how badly she handled things at the Home Office could see she was going to make a right pigs ear of Government in general and Brexit in particular and so it proved.
Yes, but you're an utter Europhobe, and as you keep on mentioning, she was a remainer. I'm far from sure you can ever have had a balanced view on her for that reason alone.
> He was supporting Brexit party in the Euros just gone, so no.
>
> I mean in political terms anyway not against people having personal relationships across political divides.
Curious that you're ok with the Labour MPs supporting candidates that stand against Labour?
You really need to start paying attention to what is going on here. The far left and right, let's call them the far out are deliberately conspiring to flame the division that is ripping the country and politics apart. And your man is connected to it.
Yes now you mention it that picture of Brexit party supporter Galloway with Bannon proves the current Labour leadership is actually working for the far right....
It isn't even really a good conspiracy theory, I realise some centrists come up with they both disagree with us so we must be on the same side. That was the same logic that saw Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein as great allies in some minds.
It is also the reason many on the left think the centre are quite happy with the far right. Maybe I'm just pessimistic but given the opportunity it will be 1933 Germany over again, the centrists will back the far right to stop the left.
> @Barnesian said: > I think Boris has got this sewn up. > > The person the Remainers fear most is Dominic Raab who sounds as if he really means no deal. So Remainers will ensure Boris is in the last two. Probably Boris v. Raab and the membership will pick Boris. > > But Boris needs to be careful what he says to the membership. Raab will push him to be clear on no deal. But Boris can lie convincingly, and if Amber Rudd is on his team, it will give comfort to the Remainers. > > So Boris is PM in September. I don't think he will do a deal with Farage. Farage won't trust him and Boris won't want to be locked into a no deal scenario. > > Does he go for a GE in October? I suppose it depends on what sort of bounce he gets in the polls. But a GE is very high risk, so probably no. > > Whether there is a GE or not, I think, as new PM, he will ask the EU for an extension and it will be granted. We won't be leaving the EU this year. The Brexit Party will thrive and split the Tory vote, so no GE until 2022.
I honestly don't think the EU will offer another extension. It'll be revoke or nothing. They aren't going to renegotiate, so what would the point of an extension be?
> @Jonathan said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > I will not vote for him but if he is elected in a fair and proper manner and he seeks to heal some of the wounds then I see no reason why I should just leave the party and open a door for Corbyn > > That's quite a change from where you were. You said he was dangerous. What changed your mind?
At this moment in time the party needs someone who can attack and take down both Farage and Corbyn. I cannot think of anyone else and of course Farage has happened since my earlier anger at Boris and especially his FO to Airbus.
Time and politics moves on but my support is for the party and for Boris it is reserved and wait and see
The two Tory leaders elected by coronation, Michael Howard and Theresa May, didn't last long in the job. Perhaps a good reason not to have another coronation.
Theresa May wasn't a coronation, there were two rounds of voting, unlike Howard.
Comments
> > @AndyJS said:
> > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
>
> The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
Apart from yesterday's.
That is the context that should be remembered when we see her humanity today and, rightly, are moved by it.
> Who will the interim party leader be ?
There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
"So Theresa resigns when Mike’s on holiday.
An FYI Mike’s next major holiday after that is in September."
..............................................................................................................................
News reaches me that Conservative grandees are preparing legislation preventing Mike Smithson from taking holidays until the 2022 general election.
In compensation and reflecting on modern compassionate conservatism Mr Smithson is to be offered a five year subscription to the Belgravia Hair Centre, the Freedom of Bedford and funding for a new PhD course at Oxford University researching the history, philosophy and theory of bar charts.
To be sure a tempting offer for OGH.
> > @isam said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> >
> > Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first).
> >
> > Money to be made?
> >
> >
> > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
>
> CAREFUL -- do not confuse the party leadership (which you are betting on) with remaining as Prime Minister until a successor is found.
If I resign my job, I don't official leave the position until a replacement is found and I stop doing the job. Resignation isn't the same as leaving. If there is no interim leader surely she leader until there is a new one.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> >
> > There won't be one?
>
> The Tory contest won't be concluded on 7th June
She resigns as Con leader on 7th June triggering a leadership election. The post will remain unfilled until her successor is chosen.
She will stay as PM until her successor is chosen then she will go an inform the Queen that she's standing down as PM and the Monarch must send for... whoever the new leader is.
> In foreign news.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/antelava/status/1131838636591386626
>
>
>
> Rapidly losing whatever credit he has remaining with the left, endorsing the Brexit party was bad enough.
He's Jezz's mate though isn't he. This is the kind of loyalty to Labour leaders we used to get.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/185542633056239616
> > @AndyJS said:
> > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
>
> The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
For the first 3 weeks she retained a big poll lead.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > >
> > > Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first).
> > >
> > > Money to be made?
> > >
> > >
> > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
> >
> > CAREFUL -- do not confuse the party leadership (which you are betting on) with remaining as Prime Minister until a successor is found.
>
> If I resign my job, I don't official leave the position until a replacement is found and I stop doing the job. Resignation isn't the same as leaving. If there is no interim leader surely she leader until there is a new one.
I'm not sure that is correct at all.
I can resign on notice and my successor is irrelevant. As Party leader, she doesn't have a notice period.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Who will the interim party leader be ?
>
> There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
> > @JonCisBack said:
> > Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all.
> >
> > Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May.
>
> Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her.
---------------------
And she chose to pick up the cards, having already seen them.
> Can anyone stop Boris? His self restraint over recent weeks will pay some dividends. I think he will prove unstoppable but the record of ante post favourites in the Tory party is very poor.
It will be Boris he is the only hope now but outsider Steve Baker who could be the Tory Corbyn
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> >
> > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
>
> No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
Fair comment. I misunderstood the question
> https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1131857415538925569
It was time some months ago. Wonder why Boris feels now is the right time.
> Can anyone stop Boris? His self restraint over recent weeks will pay some dividends. I think he will prove unstoppable but the record of ante post favourites in the Tory party is very poor.
He wins if he makes the final 2 and I'm not sure MPs would be wise to stop him if they want to keep support in the wider party.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1131858227610693633
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> > >
> > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
> >
> > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
>
> Fair comment. I misunderstood the question
Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader?
> May made a series of bad choices that brought her to this point. She caved on the EU's timing of how the deal negotiations would proceed; she agreed the price of the deal before knowing what we would get for that; she gave up the Irish back-stop when the only possible response from our negotiators was "piss off"; she kept faith with a senior negotiator who was bringing back deal terms that any PM with political nous would have known could not get through the House. And still kept faith when that deal received the biggest Westminster raspberry of all time.
If you believe Barnier will cave in now and scrap the backstop you are a braver man than me, we are heading sadly for No Deal v Revoke civil war now unless by some miracle the Withdrawal Agreement passes before October
>
> No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
What if the new leader can't command the confidence of the house? She might be able to cling on in Number 10 yet.
> May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
>
> (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
Are they?
We are all flawed as people. Not in an original sin sort of way, but simply that being a person is hard and were all make mistakes.
I don't think there can be any doubt that she was a very poor PM. Her two stated objectives were to deliver Brexit (not done) and help the JAMs (being increasingly shafted by universal credit). What is the contrary case?
On Brexit you might argue that it was difficult to handle well, but I don't think you suffer a record Commons defeat on the issue and avoid a judgement that you handled it poorly. How else can you judge these things?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
I mean in political terms anyway not against people having personal relationships across political divides.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> >
> > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
>
> What if the new leader can't command the confidence of the house? She might be able to cling on in Number 10 yet.
So long as it isn't as party leader I don't really care for betting purposes.
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
> >
> > The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
>
> For the first 3 weeks she retained a big poll lead.
And the length of the campaign was dictated by the FTPA procedures, another legacy of Cameron's blundering. Before the FTPA a general election campaign could run for as little as three weeks.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
>
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > > Amber Rudd not running.
>
> >
>
> > PM loses seat isn't a good look
>
>
>
> There’ll be a vacancy in Maidenhead at the next election (probably)
>
> If Boris-Rudd happens, then the contest is over before it begins. I guess CoE will be the deal, with huge leeway over domestic day-to-day policy, while Boris gets on with EU.
As down thread, I think the days of no contest leadership elections are over for the time being - Brown and May were disasters. The Tories owe it to the country to have a thorough leadership contest which truly tests and stretches all contenders' qualities (or lack of them).
> She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
Weak of 1922 to agree to this timetable. She was playing them for fools for the last few weeks, and they've let her get away with it to the last.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @JosiasJessop said:
> > > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
> > >
> > > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
> > >
> > > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
> > >
> > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
> >
> > She is also far better than the utterly contemptible Corbyn, I would vote for the Devil to beat him now. He always put party politics above the national interest
>
> That's the point though: he doesn't put party politics above the national interest. If he did, then Labour would be way ahead in the polls.
>
> Corbyn puts his warped ideology ahead of party politics and the national interest.
>
> And yet he might soon be PM.
He does because he knows he cannot become PM without Labour Leave seats under FPTP, wining huge majorities in inner city Remain seats is not enough.
However Labour members and MPs are losing patience and he could yet be toppled if Labour collapse on Sunday in the Euro elections and Corbyn still refuses to commit to EUref2.
It may yet be a Boris v Starmer next general election
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1131857415538925569
>
> It was time some months ago. Wonder why Boris feels now is the right time.
Nigel Farage and the Brexit party and who is best placed to get their voters back.
Of course none of the others will be any better.
> https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1131852008254857221
>
>
>
> Fat chance of that.
I think the 20/1 available is fair.
> Much as I hate the idea, I do think that it is time a Brexiter takes charge. they need to own the mess they have created, both for the country and the Conservative Party. I will still vote "anyone but Boris" and then I will resign my membership
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo6aKnRnBxM
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > In foreign news.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/antelava/status/1131838636591386626
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Rapidly losing whatever credit he has remaining with the left, endorsing the Brexit party was bad enough.
>
>
>
> He's Jezz's mate though isn't he. This is the kind of loyalty to Labour leaders we used to get.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/185542633056239616
>
>
>
> He was supporting Brexit party in the Euros just gone, so no.
>
> I mean in political terms anyway not against people having personal relationships across political divides.
The man that sucks up to SinnFein IRA and Hamas sucks up to the man that sucked up to Saddam Hussein. Repulsive, the pair of them.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> >
> > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
>
> What if the new leader can't command the confidence of the house? She might be able to cling on in Number 10 yet.
We would be in the hands of the FTPA, and would enter a GE but with the new party leader leading the Tories, and expelling those that voted no confidence
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @JonCisBack said:
> > > Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all.
> > >
> > > Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May.
> >
> > Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her.
> ---------------------
> And she chose to pick up the cards, having already seen them.
>
Had she won a landslide in 2017 that the polls initially predicted, we would have left in March if not sooner and possibly on better terms. The misjudgement wasn't in calling an election, it was being so casual, underprepared and piss poor in it. Even so, nobody foresaw how effective Corbyn and Labour would be at engaging with a new bunch of voters and getting them out to deny what still should have been a big Tory win.
How things quickly change. I fear we are set for leftie government now for most of the rest of my lifetime.
I'm 42....
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> > > >
> > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
> > >
> > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
> >
> > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question
>
> Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader?
I have spoken on this a few times recently. I am looking forward to a proper leadership contest and will listen to all the candidates and consider my options. I will not vote for Boris in the membership election but if he wins then the party need to come together and if he appoints Amber Rudd as COE then I would be content to see how matters develop. Also his cabinet appointments will be very important to strike a a balance
> https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131858840566341634
Can't be right? Surely he was born in 1869?
@TheJezziah
> He was supporting Brexit party in the Euros just gone, so no.
>
> I mean in political terms anyway not against people having personal relationships across political divides.
Curious that you're ok with the Labour MPs supporting candidates that stand against Labour?
You really need to start paying attention to what is going on here. The far left and right, let's call them the far out, are deliberately conspiring to flame the division that is ripping the country and politics apart. And your man is connected to it.
> I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else.
>
Wonder whether we'll get a rethink on all of the "nannying" and puritanism?
I mean Boris is fat and sex mad so...
> > @TudorRose said:
> > > @anothernick said:
> > > > @JonCisBack said:
> > > > Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all.
> > > >
> > > > Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May.
> > >
> > > Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her.
> > ---------------------
> > And she chose to pick up the cards, having already seen them.
> >
>
> Had she won a landslide in 2017 that the polls initially predicted, we would have left in March if not sooner and possibly on better terms. The misjudgement wasn't in calling an election, it was being so casual, underprepared and piss poor in it. Even so, nobody foresaw how effective Corbyn and Labour would be at engaging with a new bunch of voters and getting them out to deny what still should have been a big Tory win.
>
> How things quickly change. I fear we are set for leftie government now for most of the rest of my lifetime.
>
> I'm 42....
With labour polling in the 20s?! Not a chance of it. One election cycle perhaps.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> > > > >
> > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
> > > >
> > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
> > >
> > > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question
> >
> > Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader?
>
> I have spoken on this a few times recently. I am looking forward to a proper leadership contest and will listen to all the candidates and consider my options. I will not vote for Boris in the membership election but if he wins then the party need to come together and if he appoints Amber Rudd as COE then I would be content to see how matters develop. Also his cabinet appointments will be very important to strike a a balance
So, let's not beat around the bush. You've changed your mind. (Which is a good trait BTW). You had said that you would leave in Boris became leader, couldn't vote Conservative and generally had some very harsh words to say about him.
Surely it's arguable that the Conservative party hasn't been completely destroyed yet?
> Peter Bone says BORIS!
The funny thing about the Boris bandwagon is that (has everyone forgotten?) in 2016 he only decided at the last minute to tie his colours to the Brexit mast. He's not a true Brexiter, he's not a true right-winger, he's an opportunist. As such, the Right of the party is taking a chance by supporting him. He has populist charisma but he is a loose cannon, and although he seems to have a lot in common with Trump, I think he's likely to disappoint the Right much more than Trump has.
> https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1131852008254857221
>
>
>
> Fat chance of that.
Could happen. Peterborough will be a 3-way split between Con, Lab and Brexit Party and any of them could sneak through the middle.
He’s a Lib Demmer who doesn’t seem to be getting carried away
https://twitter.com/jchristy93/status/1131846371462516736?s=21
The person the Remainers fear most is Dominic Raab who sounds as if he really means no deal. So Remainers will ensure Boris is in the last two. Probably Boris v. Raab and the membership will pick Boris.
But Boris needs to be careful what he says to the membership. Raab will push him to be clear on no deal. But Boris can lie convincingly, and if Amber Rudd is on his team, it will give comfort to the Remainers.
So Boris is PM in September. I don't think he will do a deal with Farage. Farage won't trust him and Boris won't want to be locked into a no deal scenario.
Does he go for a GE in October? I suppose it depends on what sort of bounce he gets in the polls. But a GE is very high risk, so probably no.
Whether there is a GE or not, I think, as new PM, he will ask the EU for an extension and it will be granted. We won't be leaving the EU this year. The Brexit Party will thrive and split the Tory vote, so no GE until 2022.
In the meanwhile, nothing will have changed except Boris will be happy.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
> > > > >
> > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
> > > >
> > > > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question
> > >
> > > Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader?
> >
> > I have spoken on this a few times recently. I am looking forward to a proper leadership contest and will listen to all the candidates and consider my options. I will not vote for Boris in the membership election but if he wins then the party need to come together and if he appoints Amber Rudd as COE then I would be content to see how matters develop. Also his cabinet appointments will be very important to strike a a balance
>
> So, let's not beat around the bush. You've changed your mind. (Which is a good trait BTW). You had said that you would leave in Boris became leader, couldn't vote Conservative and generally had some very harsh words to say about him.
>
I will not vote for him but if he is elected in a fair and proper manner and he seeks to heal some of the wounds then I see no reason why I should just leave the party and open a door for Corbyn
> I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM.
>
I can. She recognized the foolishness of a No Deal Brexit and shied away from it despite knowing that it would have made her popular with the membership of her party.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1131857415538925569
The dogs that don't bark are the most interesting. No mention of red lines or anything to be said in favour of Brexit, beyond the fact of people voting for it.
Theresa May eventually accepted the realities of Brexit, which aren't in fact nice. The next Tory PM will have maybe two months, not two years, to abandon the promises of their candidature, to end up in the same place.
Doesn't sound like a recipe for success.
> I will not vote for him but if he is elected in a fair and proper manner and he seeks to heal some of the wounds then I see no reason why I should just leave the party and open a door for Corbyn
That's quite a change from where you were. You said he was dangerous. What changed your mind?
> https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1131859945559855110
All this pompous 'History will judge...' bollocks. Let's just wait for it to become history first, shall we?
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> > > > >
> > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
> > > >
> > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
> > >
> > > Fair comment. I misunderstood the question
> >
> > Are you still leaving if Boris becomes leader?
>
> I have spoken on this a few times recently. I am looking forward to a proper leadership contest and will listen to all the candidates and consider my options. I will not vote for Boris in the membership election but if he wins then the party need to come together and if he appoints Amber Rudd as COE then I would be content to see how matters develop. Also his cabinet appointments will be very important to strike a a balance
If his first priority is Brexit, I can't see how he can risk having any bolshy Remainers in his cabinet at all, until it's sorted.
> https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1131859945559855110
I'd be more interested to hear Watson's views on what's come out in court about Operation Midland, and his own poisoned role in helping a paedophile to slander Conservative politicians ...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/15/nick-set-fake-email-back-story-murderous-westminster-vip-paedophile/
It will be almost impossible to prevent further polarisation and the break down of the Tory party.
> I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else.
>
> Of course none of the others will be any better.
The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending.
Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough.
> The two Tory leaders elected by coronation, Michael Howard and Theresa May, didn't last long in the job. Perhaps a good reason not to have another coronation.
In fairness the Howard thing and the May thing were two very different things. Howard was basically an emergency caretaker ahead of the 2005 election with the expectation he'd stand down after it, which he did in autumn 2005 after a very well organised and thorough leadership contest.
> > @Bob__Sykes said:
> > > @TudorRose said:
> > > > @anothernick said:
> > > > > @JonCisBack said:
> > > > > Crying because in the end she achieved almost nothing at all.
> > > > >
> > > > > Cameron needs to still be taking a whole heap of blame for where we are though, it's not just May.
> > > >
> > > > Indeed. Cameron dealt May a very bad hand. But she played it very badly, the unachievable red lines, the refusal to take advice or consult outside a tiny circle of sycophants, the secretiveness and the fostering of division in her early period and, of course, the colossal misjudgements of the 2017 election were all May's decisions. History will not be kind to her.
> > > ---------------------
> > > And she chose to pick up the cards, having already seen them.
> > >
> >
> > Had she won a landslide in 2017 that the polls initially predicted, we would have left in March if not sooner and possibly on better terms. The misjudgement wasn't in calling an election, it was being so casual, underprepared and piss poor in it. Even so, nobody foresaw how effective Corbyn and Labour would be at engaging with a new bunch of voters and getting them out to deny what still should have been a big Tory win.
> >
> > How things quickly change. I fear we are set for leftie government now for most of the rest of my lifetime.
> >
> > I'm 42....
>
> With labour polling in the 20s?! Not a chance of it. One election cycle perhaps.
After latest Survation and Opinium polls:
Con on 25%, Lab on 29%, LD on 16%, Brexit on 19%, Green on 5%.
Seats
Con 235
Lab 312
LD 22
Brexit 5
Green 1
PC 4
SNP 53
NI 18
Lab 14 short of an overall majority.
> Whoever is leader, however committed they are to No Deal, they will need to compromise with reality, which will keep them on the back foot against Nigel Farage.
>
> It will be almost impossible to prevent further polarisation and the break down of the Tory party.
> @Dadge said:
> > @isam said:
> > Peter Bone says BORIS!
>
> The funny thing about the Boris bandwagon is that (has everyone forgotten?) in 2016 he only decided at the last minute to tie his colours to the Brexit mast. He's not a true Brexiter, he's not a true right-winger, he's an opportunist. As such, the Right of the party is taking a chance by supporting him. He has populist charisma but he is a loose cannon, and although he seems to have a lot in common with Trump, I think he's likely to disappoint the Right much more than Trump has.
Boris heading for disaster then ?
>
> In fairness the Howard thing and the May thing were two very different things. Howard was basically an emergency caretaker ahead of the 2005 election with the expectation he'd stand down after it, which he did in autumn 2005 after a very well organised and thorough leadership contest.
-------
Yes, although ironically Howard probably didn't do any better electorally than IDS would have done, but he managed to make the party look more like a plausible opposition.
> > @JosiasJessop said:
> > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
> >
> > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
> >
> > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
> >
> > (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
>
> I would suggest very poorly.
>
> I was very unhappy when she became PM, not primarily because of her views on Brexit but because her time at the Home Office marked her out to have a very bad combination of attributes - authoritarianism, incompetence and xenophobia. Anyone who saw how badly she handled things at the Home Office could see she was going to make a right pigs ear of Government in general and Brexit in particular and so it proved.
Yes, but you're an utter Europhobe, and as you keep on mentioning, she was a remainer. I'm far from sure you can ever have had a balanced view on her for that reason alone.
It isn't even really a good conspiracy theory, I realise some centrists come up with they both disagree with us so we must be on the same side. That was the same logic that saw Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein as great allies in some minds.
It is also the reason many on the left think the centre are quite happy with the far right. Maybe I'm just pessimistic but given the opportunity it will be 1933 Germany over again, the centrists will back the far right to stop the left.
> I think Boris has got this sewn up.
>
> The person the Remainers fear most is Dominic Raab who sounds as if he really means no deal. So Remainers will ensure Boris is in the last two. Probably Boris v. Raab and the membership will pick Boris.
>
> But Boris needs to be careful what he says to the membership. Raab will push him to be clear on no deal. But Boris can lie convincingly, and if Amber Rudd is on his team, it will give comfort to the Remainers.
>
> So Boris is PM in September. I don't think he will do a deal with Farage. Farage won't trust him and Boris won't want to be locked into a no deal scenario.
>
> Does he go for a GE in October? I suppose it depends on what sort of bounce he gets in the polls. But a GE is very high risk, so probably no.
>
> Whether there is a GE or not, I think, as new PM, he will ask the EU for an extension and it will be granted. We won't be leaving the EU this year. The Brexit Party will thrive and split the Tory vote, so no GE until 2022.
I honestly don't think the EU will offer another extension. It'll be revoke or nothing. They aren't going to renegotiate, so what would the point of an extension be?
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > I will not vote for him but if he is elected in a fair and proper manner and he seeks to heal some of the wounds then I see no reason why I should just leave the party and open a door for Corbyn
>
> That's quite a change from where you were. You said he was dangerous. What changed your mind?
At this moment in time the party needs someone who can attack and take down both Farage and Corbyn. I cannot think of anyone else and of course Farage has happened since my earlier anger at Boris and especially his FO to Airbus.
Time and politics moves on but my support is for the party and for Boris it is reserved and wait and see
> > @kle4 said:
> > https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1131852008254857221
> >
> >
> >
> > Fat chance of that.
>
> Could happen. Peterborough will be a 3-way split between Con, Lab and Brexit Party and any of them could sneak through the middle.
Wot - no sneaky LibDem win on a surge with 26%?