I wonder what they are making of May's departure in Brussels and other EU capitals....
Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal.
> @Dadge said: > > @Barnesian said: > > I think Boris has got this sewn up. > > > > The person the Remainers fear most is Dominic Raab who sounds as if he really means no deal. So Remainers will ensure Boris is in the last two. Probably Boris v. Raab and the membership will pick Boris. > > > > But Boris needs to be careful what he says to the membership. Raab will push him to be clear on no deal. But Boris can lie convincingly, and if Amber Rudd is on his team, it will give comfort to the Remainers. > > > > So Boris is PM in September. I don't think he will do a deal with Farage. Farage won't trust him and Boris won't want to be locked into a no deal scenario. > > > > Does he go for a GE in October? I suppose it depends on what sort of bounce he gets in the polls. But a GE is very high risk, so probably no. > > > > Whether there is a GE or not, I think, as new PM, he will ask the EU for an extension and it will be granted. We won't be leaving the EU this year. The Brexit Party will thrive and split the Tory vote, so no GE until 2022. > > I honestly don't think the EU will offer another extension. It'll be revoke or nothing. They aren't going to renegotiate, so what would the point of an extension be? > >
If they are certain that Boris will revoke rather than no deal, they won't offer an extension. But they can't be absolutely certain. They don't lose much by offering a long extension. "Take your time Boris. And don't bother us with unacceptable demands".
> @KentRising said: > > @david_herdson said: > > > @asjohnstone said: > > > Lost it at the end, didn't feel sorry for her one little bit. > > > > > > Tried hard, but was ultimately a bit crap, hoisted upon her own petard > > > > Tried hard but ultimately not an instinctive politician or leader. > > A proper leadership contest in 2016 rather than a coronation would have highlighted this. The Cons simply did not learn from Gordon Brown's coronation, and not from their own, very thorough contest in 2005/06 which revealed a leader most people hadn't even heard of before its start (and who went on to win - or at least not lose - two general elections).
No, I disagree with this. Leadsom's campaign was holed below the waterline when she withdrew. Stringing out the contest for several more weeks would have done nothing to change that fact. May could easily have sailed along on the breezy slogans of 'Brexit means Brexit' for that short time.
In any case, there *was* a leadership contest. The fact that the members didn't vote doesn't mean that the MPs didn't. There was every bit as much of a contest as when Thatcher won, or Major, or Hague - or on Labour's side, Wilson, Callaghan or Foot. No-one thinks that those leaders were elected unopposed.
> @HYUFD said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*) > > > > > > > > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this. > > > > > > > > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years. > > > > > > > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals. > > > > > > She is also far better than the utterly contemptible Corbyn, I would vote for the Devil to beat him now. He always put party politics above the national interest > > > > That's the point though: he doesn't put party politics above the national interest. If he did, then Labour would be way ahead in the polls. > > > > Corbyn puts his warped ideology ahead of party politics and the national interest. > > > > And yet he might soon be PM. > > He does because he knows he cannot become PM without Labour Leave seats under FPTP, wining huge majorities in inner city Remain seats is not enough. > > However Labour members and MPs are losing patience and he could yet be toppled if Labour collapse on Sunday in the Euro elections and Corbyn still refuses to commit to EUref2. > > It may yet be a Boris v Starmer next general election
He does it because he's not interested in Remain. If he was interested in politics as normal, he wouldn't have handled PMQs as he did yesterday.
I wonder what they are making of May's departure in Brussels and other EU capitals....
Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal.
Nothing has changed...
There is only one deal on the table. The British PM can accept it, or not.
The EU are not the ones who will be blamed for torching the UK in the pursuit of ideological purity.
> @Dadge said: > > @isam said: > > Peter Bone says BORIS! > > The funny thing about the Boris bandwagon is that (has everyone forgotten?) in 2016 he only decided at the last minute to tie his colours to the Brexit mast. He's not a true Brexiter, he's not a true right-winger, he's an opportunist. As such, the Right of the party is taking a chance by supporting him. He has populist charisma but he is a loose cannon, and although he seems to have a lot in common with Trump, I think he's likely to disappoint the Right much more than Trump has.
He's a chancer, but I think he is also a true (extreme) right-winger, just like Trump is. Before he became president, many people were saying that Trump was really a liberal kinda guy, and was just pretending to be reactionary to get the Republican base to vote for him. The truth is probably more the other way around: Trump had previously just pretended to be somewhat liberal to play whatever games he needed to play as a New York estate agent, Johnson similarly in London. Now I guess they are both showing their true colours (although anyone looking at their previous would find plenty of evidence both have always been on the ugly side of right-wing). I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think moderates should get their hopes up about the prospect of Johnson as PM.
The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
> @MarqueeMark said: > I wonder what they are making of May's departure in Brussels and other EU capitals.... > > Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal.
No. The EU will hold firm. They have much less to lose than we have. It will end in either revoke or passing Mrs May's bill to ensure some kind of Brexit. That would be ironic.
> @brokenwheel said: > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else. > > Of course none of the others will be any better.
The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending.
Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough.
> @MarqueeMark said: > I wonder what they are making of May's departure in Brussels and other EU capitals.... > > Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal.
The backstop WAS the fudge. The fudge factory is now closed.
I think now they expect Johnson or Raab and No Deal. They're ready for it. We aren't.
> @JohnO said: > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win. ------
Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform?
> @williamglenn said: > Whoever is leader, however committed they are to No Deal, they will need to compromise with reality, which will keep them on the back foot against Nigel Farage. > > It will be almost impossible to prevent further polarisation and the break down of the Tory party.
Leadership contenders will be under huge pressure to say they will go for no deal on 31 October. The Tory headbangers will demand a pledge written in blood. But if a candidate is elected with that mandate it is not clear they will be able to command a majority in the Commons. There must be at least half a dozen Tory MPs would would resign the whip in those circumstances.
> @JohnO said: > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
They might if Raab is PM. They will lose many Tory MPs who won't stand under that manifesto and might even join the LibDems. They will get crushed. I'd love it to happen.
I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
Lets revisit that on Sunday evening in the light of the Brexit Party performance. Equally I can see a Lab-Lib-Nat coalition revoking article 50 as what remains of the Tories self-immolate...
> @JohnO said: > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
I think Boris would beat either Corbyn or Starmer on a hard Brexit platform, others I am less sure of being able to do that
If there is an election this year, I think a 'Remain Alliance' will win. There will be a concerted campaigner by Remainers to game the FPP system, and vote against the Brexiteer in the seat with the nearest challenger, be they Liberal, Labour, Change or Europhile Tory.
> @anothernick said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Whoever is leader, however committed they are to No Deal, they will need to compromise with reality, which will keep them on the back foot against Nigel Farage. > > > > It will be almost impossible to prevent further polarisation and the break down of the Tory party. > > Leadership contenders will be under huge pressure to say they will go for no deal on 31 October. The Tory headbangers will demand a pledge written in blood. But if a candidate is elected with that mandate it is not clear they will be able to command a majority in the Commons. There must be at least half a dozen Tory MPs would would resign the whip in those circumstances.
Boris will sign the pledge in blood and then renege after he's elected PM. Simple.
> @williamglenn said: > > @JohnO said: > > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win. > ------ > > Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform?
No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
> @Scott_P said: > I wonder what they are making of May's departure in Brussels and other EU capitals.... > > > > Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal. > > Nothing has changed... > > There is only one deal on the table. The British PM can accept it, or not.
A deal that has been turned down 4 times by MPs. It's off the table and into the bin whether a new PM likes it or not.
One route that the new PM can't go down is this deal.
> The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
------
Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform?
> @isam said: > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed ! > > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
> @JohnO said: > > No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories. ----------
If you combine a 2015-like Farage vote with a 2010-like Lib Dem vote, the Tories would have no chance of a majority.
> @JohnO said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @JohnO said: > > > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win. > > ------ > > > > Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform? > > No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
The Tories will also lose votes with Johnson or Raab as PM, while there will always be Brexit party and UKIP irreconcilables. To have any chance at all, the Tories need a GE before No Deal kicks in.
> @DavidL said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else. > > > > Of course none of the others will be any better. > > The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending. > > Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough.
The catch about 1 million extra jobs, is that many have been taken by people who thought they would be pensioners at 60 but will now be at 67, many more are taken by people who have to have 2 or more jobs to survive, and many jobs do not pay enough to live on anyway, so the tax payer has to support the workers, and fill up the foodbanks. And then there is immigration from non-EU countries to do the jobs that Brits won't touch with a barge pole.
As for the deficit being reduced, Brown left no 10 with a deficit of around £900 billion (£450 billion above the average of the years 1997 to 2008 due to the banks collapsing in 2007/8), the Tories have made it to over £2 Trillion since 2010. The boastful reductions are in the region of a couple of million which in the scheme of things is pretty pitiful which ever way you try and butter it.
And the Health and Care spending was cut drastically by Cameron's fake Austerity measures and the money that has gone back in has not even returned to the same levels pre-cuts.
All smoke and mirrors, promises of massive fund increases in the future which never appears.
A few more councils have declared turnout. No massive change to the modest but noticable trend of better turnout changes in more Remain areas. It's looking more and more like turnout overall is more up than down, too.
Still quite few remain areas have declared, none from London for example. And we have our first Remain area where turnout has fallen - Exeter (down 0.3%).
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @JohnO said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @JohnO said: > > > > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win. > > > ------ > > > > > > Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform? > > > > No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories. > > The Tories will also lose votes with Johnson or Raab as PM, while there will always be Brexit party and UKIP irreconcilables. To have any chance at all, the Tories need a GE before No Deal kicks in.
I agree with your final sentence. The election would precede an actual No Deal.
> @John_McLean said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else. > > > > > > Of course none of the others will be any better. > > > > The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending. > > > > Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough. > > The catch about 1 million extra jobs, is that many have been taken by people who thought they would be pensioners at 60 but will now be at 67, many more are taken by people who have to have 2 or more jobs to survive, and many jobs do not pay enough to live on anyway, so the tax payer has to support the workers, and fill up the foodbanks. And then there is immigration from non-EU countries to do the jobs that Brits won't touch with a barge pole. > > As for the deficit being reduced, Brown left no 10 with a deficit of around £900 billion (£450 billion above the average of the years 1997 to 2008 due to the banks collapsing in 2007/8), the Tories have made it to over £2 Trillion since 2010. The boastful reductions are in the region of a couple of million which in the scheme of things is pretty pitiful which ever way you try and butter it. > > And the Health and Care spending was cut drastically by Cameron's fake Austerity measures and the money that has gone back in has not even returned to the same levels pre-cuts. > > All smoke and mirrors, promises of massive fund increases in the future which never appears.
> No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
----------
If you combine a 2015-like Farage vote with a 2010-like Lib Dem vote, the Tories would have no chance of a majority.
> @SouthamObserver said: > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
Look on the bright side. He's not an anti-semite.....
Con on 25%, Lab on 29%, LD on 16%, Brexit on 19%, Green on 5%.
Seats
Con 235
Lab 312
LD 22
Brexit 5
Green 1
PC 4
SNP 53
NI 18
Lab 14 short of an overall majority.
We do persist in using artificially precise estimations for a process that isn't properly modellable without a LOT more information (far more multilevel regression required than in headline polls). Especially given the churn and unpredictability of clumping, I'd guess that such a score would lead to: Con: 180-260 seats Lab: 250-320 seats SNP: 35-55 seats LD: 20-50 seats Brexit: 2-20 seats Green: 1-2 seats PC: 3-4 seats NI: 18 seats
Probable Lab-led Government (minority or Coalition with SNP looks most likely), but who knows?
@isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London.
> @SouthamObserver said: > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
But it seems years since the Conservative party could claim that anyway.
> @SouthamObserver said: > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
The Tories need to do whatever minimises the chance of a Corbyn governament - any other course of action is against the national interest.
> @Quincel said: > > @Sagand said: > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair? > > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
Event Start Time 01 July 2020, 00:00 Win Only Market
MARKET INFORMATION
For further information please see Rules & Regs.
When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
> @Quincel said: > > @Sagand said: > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair? > > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
"When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?" Out to 1.36 now.
> @Slackbladder said: > One thing is clear. May's deal is now deader than deader (it was before, but its declared now) > > So that leaves, No-Deal, New-Deal or No-Leave. All of which seem unpalatable.
Does anyone really think the EU will negotiate a different deal?
> She said she is stepping down as Con Leader on Jun 7, yet April-June as her departure date is still 1.3 on Betfair
>
> Have I missed summit?
>
> Take all of that 1.3
>
> I managed to get out of my Oct-Dec position!
>
> 10k to back at 1.14
>
> Good effort, I ended up about level on this one, bar a few pence as cover on the Q4 bracket the other day.
---------------------
Maybe I've missed something but she said she will stay on until the leadership contest 'is concluded' which won't be until July (unless Boris does a stitch-up first).
She’ll stay on as PM until the contest is concluded. The market we were discussing was for the date of he resignation as party leader, which she’s just announced as being June 7th so is now very likely to pay out for Q2 - unless she changes her mind!
> @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
Fair enough, I was passing on a Lib Dem’s clue not offering my own
May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> @FF43 said: > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed ! > > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive > > The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London.
Yep - Leave is much more an East Coast seaside thing.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*) > > > > > > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this. > > > > > > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years. > > > > > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals. > > > > I would suggest very poorly. > > > > I was very unhappy when she became PM, not primarily because of her views on Brexit but because her time at the Home Office marked her out to have a very bad combination of attributes - authoritarianism, incompetence and xenophobia. Anyone who saw how badly she handled things at the Home Office could see she was going to make a right pigs ear of Government in general and Brexit in particular and so it proved. > > Yes, but you're an utter Europhobe, and as you keep on mentioning, she was a remainer. I'm far from sure you can ever have had a balanced view on her for that reason alone.
Again you display your complete blindness and frankly your ignorance as well as far as anyone you disagree with.
Given I have been explicit about my view that we should have a soft Brexit and have supported May's Deal throughout until this last iteration, clearly as far as you are concerned, anyone who wants to leave the EU under any circumstances is 'an utter Europhobe'.
Moreover if you actually bothered to read what I wrote instead of relying on your deluded interpretations you would see that my opposition to May far predated the Referendum.
I can only assume you are blind to her failings simply because she was a Remainer and your hatred for Brexit. As such it is your balance and not mine that should be questioned.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest. > > Look on the bright side. He's not an anti-semite.....
True - Johnson's racism takes other forms. Though I have no doubt at all he'd happily pander to anti-Semites if he felt there were votes in it.
> @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
Fair enough, I was passing on a Lib Dem’s clue not offering my own
Lots of demographic change down there. Was once God's waiting room, but trendier now with lots of younger liberal types moving in.
"The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win."
I watched the whole speech - which was calm, clear, steely and composed until the final 5 seconds.....and it will be the last 5 seconds it is remembered for.
> @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
>
> The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London.
Yep - Leave is much more an East Coast seaside thing.
> @JohnO said: > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
Surely the arithmetic will change if it becomes a straight choice between No Deal and No Brexit.
> @williamglenn said: > > @FF43 said: > > > > I quite like Ruth Davidson, but she's getting a little hysterical. She's shackled to a corpse. > ------ > > The Conservative Party or the UK, or both?
> @John_McLean said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else. > > > > > > Of course none of the others will be any better. > > > > The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending. > > > > Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough. > > The catch about 1 million extra jobs, is that many have been taken by people who thought they would be pensioners at 60 but will now be at 67, many more are taken by people who have to have 2 or more jobs to survive, and many jobs do not pay enough to live on anyway, so the tax payer has to support the workers, and fill up the foodbanks. And then there is immigration from non-EU countries to do the jobs that Brits won't touch with a barge pole. > > As for the deficit being reduced, Brown left no 10 with a deficit of around £900 billion (£450 billion above the average of the years 1997 to 2008 due to the banks collapsing in 2007/8), the Tories have made it to over £2 Trillion since 2010. The boastful reductions are in the region of a couple of million which in the scheme of things is pretty pitiful which ever way you try and butter it. > > And the Health and Care spending was cut drastically by Cameron's fake Austerity measures and the money that has gone back in has not even returned to the same levels pre-cuts. > > All smoke and mirrors, promises of massive fund increases in the future which never appears.
There's so much wrong with this its hard to know where to start. Do you dispute that unemployment is lower than it has been since the early 70's? Are you seriously arguing that life expectancy changes did not require an increase in the retirement age? The ONS counts the number of people in employment so you don't count twice if you have 2 jobs. You need to learn the difference between deficit and debt. Are you suggesting that the government should have cut spending by much more? Health care spending never fell in real terms under Cameron although it did increase much more slowly than it had done historically and did again under May.
> No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
----------
If you combine a 2015-like Farage vote with a 2010-like Lib Dem vote, the Tories would have no chance of a majority.
> @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
Fair enough, I was passing on a Lib Dem’s clue not offering my own
Lots of demographic change down there. Was once God's waiting room, but trendier now with lots of younger liberal types moving in.
> No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
----------
If you combine a 2015-like Farage vote with a 2010-like Lib Dem vote, the Tories would have no chance of a majority.
> @isam said: > > @Sagand said: > > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair? > > > > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM? > > Wowzers > > I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market > > 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’
I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled.
> @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
Fair enough, I was passing on a Lib Dem’s clue not offering my own
Lots of demographic change down there. Was once God's waiting room, but trendier now with lots of younger liberal types moving in.
More leavey than average in 2016 though
Yes indeed –– and I am certainly not saying you are wrong –– although probably trended slightly more Remain in the intervening years.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @Scott_P said: > > Look on the bright side. He's not an anti-semite..... > > > > No, he spreads his racism more generously and widely then that. > > That will be why he got elected Mayor of one of the world's most multi-cultural cities. > > Twice.
I thought that was because of his Turkish ancestry.
Comments
Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal.
Touching, but the sad end to a terrible Prime Minister's tenure.
> Are there any turnout figures from London yet?
May's been turned out of no 10. That's the main one.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > I think Boris has got this sewn up.
> >
> > The person the Remainers fear most is Dominic Raab who sounds as if he really means no deal. So Remainers will ensure Boris is in the last two. Probably Boris v. Raab and the membership will pick Boris.
> >
> > But Boris needs to be careful what he says to the membership. Raab will push him to be clear on no deal. But Boris can lie convincingly, and if Amber Rudd is on his team, it will give comfort to the Remainers.
> >
> > So Boris is PM in September. I don't think he will do a deal with Farage. Farage won't trust him and Boris won't want to be locked into a no deal scenario.
> >
> > Does he go for a GE in October? I suppose it depends on what sort of bounce he gets in the polls. But a GE is very high risk, so probably no.
> >
> > Whether there is a GE or not, I think, as new PM, he will ask the EU for an extension and it will be granted. We won't be leaving the EU this year. The Brexit Party will thrive and split the Tory vote, so no GE until 2022.
>
> I honestly don't think the EU will offer another extension. It'll be revoke or nothing. They aren't going to renegotiate, so what would the point of an extension be?
>
>
If they are certain that Boris will revoke rather than no deal, they won't offer an extension. But they can't be absolutely certain. They don't lose much by offering a long extension. "Take your time Boris. And don't bother us with unacceptable demands".
> > @david_herdson said:
> > > @asjohnstone said:
> > > Lost it at the end, didn't feel sorry for her one little bit.
> > >
> > > Tried hard, but was ultimately a bit crap, hoisted upon her own petard
> >
> > Tried hard but ultimately not an instinctive politician or leader.
>
> A proper leadership contest in 2016 rather than a coronation would have highlighted this. The Cons simply did not learn from Gordon Brown's coronation, and not from their own, very thorough contest in 2005/06 which revealed a leader most people hadn't even heard of before its start (and who went on to win - or at least not lose - two general elections).
No, I disagree with this. Leadsom's campaign was holed below the waterline when she withdrew. Stringing out the contest for several more weeks would have done nothing to change that fact. May could easily have sailed along on the breezy slogans of 'Brexit means Brexit' for that short time.
In any case, there *was* a leadership contest. The fact that the members didn't vote doesn't mean that the MPs didn't. There was every bit as much of a contest as when Thatcher won, or Major, or Hague - or on Labour's side, Wilson, Callaghan or Foot. No-one thinks that those leaders were elected unopposed.
The 2016 Labour member pro Corbyn to anti Corbyn ratio has significantly shifted.
> https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1131859945559855110
Presumably he includes Corbyn in that last sentence?
> https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1131863952030412802
Says the woman who has done nothing but try and block Brexit and disrespect the Leave vote
Boris 41%
Raab 18%
Gove 8%
Leadsom 6%
Jezza 6%
Rory 4%
Penny 3%
The Saj 3%
Urrrrrgh.
> > @JosiasJessop said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @JosiasJessop said:
> > > > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
> > > >
> > > > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
> > > >
> > > > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
> > > >
> > > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
> > >
> > > She is also far better than the utterly contemptible Corbyn, I would vote for the Devil to beat him now. He always put party politics above the national interest
> >
> > That's the point though: he doesn't put party politics above the national interest. If he did, then Labour would be way ahead in the polls.
> >
> > Corbyn puts his warped ideology ahead of party politics and the national interest.
> >
> > And yet he might soon be PM.
>
> He does because he knows he cannot become PM without Labour Leave seats under FPTP, wining huge majorities in inner city Remain seats is not enough.
>
> However Labour members and MPs are losing patience and he could yet be toppled if Labour collapse on Sunday in the Euro elections and Corbyn still refuses to commit to EUref2.
>
> It may yet be a Boris v Starmer next general election
He does it because he's not interested in Remain. If he was interested in politics as normal, he wouldn't have handled PMQs as he did yesterday.
There is only one deal on the table. The British PM can accept it, or not.
The EU are not the ones who will be blamed for torching the UK in the pursuit of ideological purity.
> > @isam said:
> > Peter Bone says BORIS!
>
> The funny thing about the Boris bandwagon is that (has everyone forgotten?) in 2016 he only decided at the last minute to tie his colours to the Brexit mast. He's not a true Brexiter, he's not a true right-winger, he's an opportunist. As such, the Right of the party is taking a chance by supporting him. He has populist charisma but he is a loose cannon, and although he seems to have a lot in common with Trump, I think he's likely to disappoint the Right much more than Trump has.
He's a chancer, but I think he is also a true (extreme) right-winger, just like Trump is. Before he became president, many people were saying that Trump was really a liberal kinda guy, and was just pretending to be reactionary to get the Republican base to vote for him. The truth is probably more the other way around: Trump had previously just pretended to be somewhat liberal to play whatever games he needed to play as a New York estate agent, Johnson similarly in London. Now I guess they are both showing their true colours (although anyone looking at their previous would find plenty of evidence both have always been on the ugly side of right-wing). I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think moderates should get their hopes up about the prospect of Johnson as PM.
> I wonder what they are making of May's departure in Brussels and other EU capitals....
>
> Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal.
No. The EU will hold firm. They have much less to lose than we have. It will end in either revoke or passing Mrs May's bill to ensure some kind of Brexit. That would be ironic.
BrexitMay.> I wonder what they are making of May's departure in Brussels and other EU capitals....
>
> Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal.
The backstop WAS the fudge. The fudge factory is now closed.
I think now they expect Johnson or Raab and No Deal. They're ready for it. We aren't.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1131865769866858496
> The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
------
Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform?
> Whoever is leader, however committed they are to No Deal, they will need to compromise with reality, which will keep them on the back foot against Nigel Farage.
>
> It will be almost impossible to prevent further polarisation and the break down of the Tory party.
Leadership contenders will be under huge pressure to say they will go for no deal on 31 October. The Tory headbangers will demand a pledge written in blood. But if a candidate is elected with that mandate it is not clear they will be able to command a majority in the Commons. There must be at least half a dozen Tory MPs would would resign the whip in those circumstances.
> The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
They might if Raab is PM. They will lose many Tory MPs who won't stand under that manifesto and might even join the LibDems. They will get crushed. I'd love it to happen.
> The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
I think Boris would beat either Corbyn or Starmer on a hard Brexit platform, others I am less sure of being able to do that
Just a wild guess from me, just for fun.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Whoever is leader, however committed they are to No Deal, they will need to compromise with reality, which will keep them on the back foot against Nigel Farage.
> >
> > It will be almost impossible to prevent further polarisation and the break down of the Tory party.
>
> Leadership contenders will be under huge pressure to say they will go for no deal on 31 October. The Tory headbangers will demand a pledge written in blood. But if a candidate is elected with that mandate it is not clear they will be able to command a majority in the Commons. There must be at least half a dozen Tory MPs would would resign the whip in those circumstances.
Boris will sign the pledge in blood and then renege after he's elected PM. Simple.
> > @JohnO said:
> > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
> ------
>
> Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform?
No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
> I wonder what they are making of May's departure in Brussels and other EU capitals....
>
>
>
> Some fudge around the backstop and they would have allowed her to get her deal through. Now they face the twin ignominies of either No Deal - or backtracking on their previous unchangeable deal.
>
> Nothing has changed...
>
> There is only one deal on the table. The British PM can accept it, or not.
A deal that has been turned down 4 times by MPs. It's off the table and into the bin whether a new PM likes it or not.
One route that the new PM can't go down is this deal.
So that leaves, No-Deal, New-Deal or No-Leave. All of which seem unpalatable.
> @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
Sturgeon and Swinson strong players in the weakest Labour administration ever maybe incoming.
>
> No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
----------
If you combine a 2015-like Farage vote with a 2010-like Lib Dem vote, the Tories would have no chance of a majority.
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1016257928209338369
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @JohnO said:
> > > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
> > ------
> >
> > Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform?
>
> No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
The Tories will also lose votes with Johnson or Raab as PM, while there will always be Brexit party and UKIP irreconcilables. To have any chance at all, the Tories need a GE before No Deal kicks in.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else.
> >
> > Of course none of the others will be any better.
>
> The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending.
>
> Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough.
The catch about 1 million extra jobs, is that many have been taken by people who thought they would be pensioners at 60 but will now be at 67, many more are taken by people who have to have 2 or more jobs to survive, and many jobs do not pay enough to live on anyway, so the tax payer has to support the workers, and fill up the foodbanks. And then there is immigration from non-EU countries to do the jobs that Brits won't touch with a barge pole.
As for the deficit being reduced, Brown left no 10 with a deficit of around £900 billion (£450 billion above the average of the years 1997 to 2008 due to the banks collapsing in 2007/8), the Tories have made it to over £2 Trillion since 2010. The boastful reductions are in the region of a couple of million which in the scheme of things is pretty pitiful which ever way you try and butter it.
And the Health and Care spending was cut drastically by Cameron's fake Austerity measures and the money that has gone back in has not even returned to the same levels pre-cuts.
All smoke and mirrors, promises of massive fund increases in the future which never appears.
> Without "chopped up, in his freezer", George is enjoying this:
>
> https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1131865769866858496
Gloating George Osborne remaining classless to the end...
Still quite few remain areas have declared, none from London for example. And we have our first Remain area where turnout has fallen - Exeter (down 0.3%).
> > @JohnO said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @JohnO said:
> > > > The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
> > > ------
> > >
> > > Does that depend on the Brexit Party standing aside if the Tories adopt a No Deal platform?
> >
> > No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
>
> The Tories will also lose votes with Johnson or Raab as PM, while there will always be Brexit party and UKIP irreconcilables. To have any chance at all, the Tories need a GE before No Deal kicks in.
I agree with your final sentence. The election would precede an actual No Deal.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else.
> > >
> > > Of course none of the others will be any better.
> >
> > The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending.
> >
> > Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough.
>
> The catch about 1 million extra jobs, is that many have been taken by people who thought they would be pensioners at 60 but will now be at 67, many more are taken by people who have to have 2 or more jobs to survive, and many jobs do not pay enough to live on anyway, so the tax payer has to support the workers, and fill up the foodbanks. And then there is immigration from non-EU countries to do the jobs that Brits won't touch with a barge pole.
>
> As for the deficit being reduced, Brown left no 10 with a deficit of around £900 billion (£450 billion above the average of the years 1997 to 2008 due to the banks collapsing in 2007/8), the Tories have made it to over £2 Trillion since 2010. The boastful reductions are in the region of a couple of million which in the scheme of things is pretty pitiful which ever way you try and butter it.
>
> And the Health and Care spending was cut drastically by Cameron's fake Austerity measures and the money that has gone back in has not even returned to the same levels pre-cuts.
>
> All smoke and mirrors, promises of massive fund increases in the future which never appears.
What do you see with your other eye?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131796866608369666
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131797314039889920
> No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
Look on the bright side. He's not an anti-semite.....
Especially given the churn and unpredictability of clumping, I'd guess that such a score would lead to:
Con: 180-260 seats
Lab: 250-320 seats
SNP: 35-55 seats
LD: 20-50 seats
Brexit: 2-20 seats
Green: 1-2 seats
PC: 3-4 seats
NI: 18 seats
Probable Lab-led Government (minority or Coalition with SNP looks most likely), but who knows?
> No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
But it seems years since the Conservative party could claim that anyway.
> Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair?
Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
> No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
The Tories need to do whatever minimises the chance of a Corbyn governament - any other course of action is against the national interest.
Chris Grayling will never be a Cabinet minister again and won't be allowed to play with his train set anymore.
> > @Sagand said:
> > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair?
>
> Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
Event Start Time
01 July 2020, 00:00
Win Only Market
MARKET INFORMATION
For further information please see Rules & Regs.
When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
> > @Sagand said:
> > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair?
>
> Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
"When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?" Out to 1.36 now.
> One thing is clear. May's deal is now deader than deader (it was before, but its declared now)
>
> So that leaves, No-Deal, New-Deal or No-Leave. All of which seem unpalatable.
Does anyone really think the EU will negotiate a different deal?
> https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1131868442716495872
Ah, she's back. The Tories have seriously missed her.
Who did you have in mind?
I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market
4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’
> > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > Without "chopped up, in his freezer", George is enjoying this:
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1131865769866858496
>
>
>
>
>
> Gloating George Osborne remaining classless to the end...
>
> https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1131868462635245568
Theresa looks a broken woman.
Shame the 1922 didn't bring this to a head in June 2017. Would have been better for all concerned including Theresa herself I think.
> @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
>
> The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London.
Yep - Leave is much more an East Coast seaside thing.
Presumably Tessa has delayed her departure so she can go past Bruin's tenure. She's four days' short currently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @JosiasJessop said:
> > > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
> > >
> > > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
> > >
> > > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
> > >
> > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
> >
> > I would suggest very poorly.
> >
> > I was very unhappy when she became PM, not primarily because of her views on Brexit but because her time at the Home Office marked her out to have a very bad combination of attributes - authoritarianism, incompetence and xenophobia. Anyone who saw how badly she handled things at the Home Office could see she was going to make a right pigs ear of Government in general and Brexit in particular and so it proved.
>
> Yes, but you're an utter Europhobe, and as you keep on mentioning, she was a remainer. I'm far from sure you can ever have had a balanced view on her for that reason alone.
Again you display your complete blindness and frankly your ignorance as well as far as anyone you disagree with.
Given I have been explicit about my view that we should have a soft Brexit and have supported May's Deal throughout until this last iteration, clearly as far as you are concerned, anyone who wants to leave the EU under any circumstances is 'an utter Europhobe'.
Moreover if you actually bothered to read what I wrote instead of relying on your deluded interpretations you would see that my opposition to May far predated the Referendum.
I can only assume you are blind to her failings simply because she was a Remainer and your hatred for Brexit. As such it is your balance and not mine that should be questioned.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
>
> Look on the bright side. He's not an anti-semite.....
True - Johnson's racism takes other forms. Though I have no doubt at all he'd happily pander to anti-Semites if he felt there were votes in it.
> When is counting for the Euros taking place?
Sunday evening.
"The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win."
...........................................................................................................................
Or not .... Shortest service as PM :
Prime Minister Boris Johnson - 21st August 2019 - 25th October 2019 - 65 days.
Beating George Canning, whose sole term lasted 119 days from 12 April 1827 until his death on 8 August 1827.
>
> I quite like Ruth Davidson, but she's getting a little hysterical. She's shackled to a corpse.
------
The Conservative Party or the UK, or both?
Raab clever? Isn't he the clown that has only just realised that Kent is near France?
> The arithmetic in Parliament won’t change, so Parliament will have to change. A general election in the autumn is necessary. I imagine the Conservatives will contest it on an explicit no deal platform if the EU isn’t prepared to budge. They might yet win.
Surely the arithmetic will change if it becomes a straight choice between No Deal and No Brexit.
> > @FF43 said:
> >
> > I quite like Ruth Davidson, but she's getting a little hysterical. She's shackled to a corpse.
> ------
>
> The Conservative Party or the UK, or both?
Pretty sure the 2 are indistinguishable for her.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > I cannot think of a single thing that has been positive about her time as PM. The only mercy is she was too busy with Brexit to **** up anything else.
> > >
> > > Of course none of the others will be any better.
> >
> > The economy has put on over 1m additional jobs in her Premiership bringing unemployment to a 30 year low. The deficit has been substantially reduced. Growth has been steady, if not spectacular. There have been significant increases in health and social care spending.
> >
> > Whether the government in general and May in particular is due much credit for most of that will no doubt be debated for long enough.
>
> The catch about 1 million extra jobs, is that many have been taken by people who thought they would be pensioners at 60 but will now be at 67, many more are taken by people who have to have 2 or more jobs to survive, and many jobs do not pay enough to live on anyway, so the tax payer has to support the workers, and fill up the foodbanks. And then there is immigration from non-EU countries to do the jobs that Brits won't touch with a barge pole.
>
> As for the deficit being reduced, Brown left no 10 with a deficit of around £900 billion (£450 billion above the average of the years 1997 to 2008 due to the banks collapsing in 2007/8), the Tories have made it to over £2 Trillion since 2010. The boastful reductions are in the region of a couple of million which in the scheme of things is pretty pitiful which ever way you try and butter it.
>
> And the Health and Care spending was cut drastically by Cameron's fake Austerity measures and the money that has gone back in has not even returned to the same levels pre-cuts.
>
> All smoke and mirrors, promises of massive fund increases in the future which never appears.
There's so much wrong with this its hard to know where to start. Do you dispute that unemployment is lower than it has been since the early 70's? Are you seriously arguing that life expectancy changes did not require an increase in the retirement age? The ONS counts the number of people in employment so you don't count twice if you have 2 jobs. You need to learn the difference between deficit and debt. Are you suggesting that the government should have cut spending by much more? Health care spending never fell in real terms under Cameron although it did increase much more slowly than it had done historically and did again under May.
> Look on the bright side. He's not an anti-semite.....
>
> No, he spreads his racism more generously and widely then that.
That will be why he got elected Mayor of one of the world's most multi-cultural cities.
Twice.
> DavidL
>
> Presumably Tessa has delayed her departure so she can go past Bruin's tenure. She's four days' short currently.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
Dates on which she overtakes previous PM stints:
Gordon Brown - 28/05/2019
Neville Chamberlain - 26/06/2019
Viscount Palmerston (first stint) - 27/07/2019
James Callaghan - 11/08/2019
Henry Addington - 06/09/2019
> > @Sagand said:
>
> > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair?
>
>
>
> Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
>
> Wowzers
>
> I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market
>
> 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’
I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled.
> Nothing became her Premiership as the leaving of it.
>
> Touching, but the sad end to a terrible Prime Minister's tenure.
the last time we had the worst PM ever, we ended up with a pretty good coalition government .... does that happen next and with who if so?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Look on the bright side. He's not an anti-semite.....
> >
> > No, he spreads his racism more generously and widely then that.
>
> That will be why he got elected Mayor of one of the world's most multi-cultural cities.
>
> Twice.
I thought that was because of his Turkish ancestry.