> @eek said: > > @isam said: > > The T May leave date market is crazy, why is anyone talking about anything else???!!! > > The actual Betfair question is > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party? > > Which is more ambigious than you think when you start looking at it. > > Does resignation resulting in ceasing officially immediately or is it when the next leader is appointed.
No sign that there was an interim leader last time, so looks as though Theresa May continues in post, serving out her notice, until a new leader is elected.
That would make Q3 a winner, unless the membership ballot is dodged again by one of the final two candidates withdrawing.
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > @TGOHF said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock. > > > > > > > > > > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ? > > I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge
I understood it to mean: Voting in the EU election (in Cambridge)= Virtue Signalling Voting in the EU election for Nigel Farage= Doing your Patriotic Duty to Send a Message to the Traitors
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > @TGOHF said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock. > > > > > > > > > > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ? > > I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge
48% isn't great for a place that supposedly bleeds Liberal.
I am genuinely afraid of Johnson, there is no doubt about it. I think with No Deal he will inflict huge damage on the UK economically and almost certainly cause its break-up. I think Corbyn will do the same on the former even without a No Deal, but is less likely to cause the latter. Both are racists.
He is mad but not mad enough to preside over no deal.
Given what has happened in the political world over the last 4-5 years I wouldn't be too quick to claim that "X won't happen".
In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier.
The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain. > > > > > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > > > > > Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament. > > > > He will try initially but the EU won't budge and Macron will veto further extension so No Deal hard Brexit v Revoke civil war it will likely be by October > > No idea where you have the Macron veto from, the EU are quite happy with the status quo, it is probably better for them than any of remain, deal or WA! > > He may well end up with trying to get no deal towards October, and undoubtedly will promise not to rule it out, but to become PM he will need a more nuanced position than an outright no dealer without any further negotiations.
Macron said yesterday he would veto further extension to prevent Brexit 'polluting the EU' any further.
Boris will try and renegotiate and remove the backstop, if not he will go to No Deal in October, probably with a snap general election to get a mandate for hard Brexit
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Stereotomy said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Not the bloody rules as they were written > > > > > > > How so? > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
And isn't that what their response says? That she won't have ceased to be leader?
> @tlg86 said: > In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier. > > The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee.
Hey there,
Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
I've had £100 at 3.8 that May ceases to be Tory leader on 7th June. That's when she resigns and triggers the leadership election - so that's when she ceases to occupy that role in my view.
> @Brom said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > @TGOHF said: > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ? > > > > I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge > > 48% isn't great for a place that supposedly bleeds Liberal.
I know it well, and it bleeds intelligence. 'nough said!
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Stereotomy said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Not the bloody rules as they were written > > > > > > > How so? > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
June 7, there cannot be a leadership election if she is still in post, there is no vacancy and no no confidence vote to trigger one. If the bookies try and wiggle out they are just wrong
> @stjohn said: > I've had £100 at 3.8 that May ceases to be Tory leader on 7th June. That's when she resigns and triggers the leadership election - so that's when she ceases to occupy that role in my view.
<b> she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen</b>
> @HYUFD said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*) > > > > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this. > > > > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years. > > > > (*) Note: those are all conditionals. > > She is also far better than the utterly contemptible Corbyn, I would vote for the Devil to beat him now. He always put party politics above the national interest
That has always been true of the Tories and nothing better highlights that than its willingness to contemplate passing its leadership to such a malign human being as Boris Johnson. The Brexit mess and all the pain and suffering that it has brought to this country comes from Cameron's blatant act of putting party interest first in early 2013 when he committed the Tories to holding a Referendum - all due to fear of losing votes to UKIP and letting in Ed Milliband.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @Stereotomy said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > Not the bloody rules as they were written > > > > > > > > > > How so? > > > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party? > > June 7, there cannot be a leadership election if she is still in post, there is no vacancy and no no confidence vote to trigger one. If the bookies try and wiggle out they are just wrong
It's not a case of the bookeis wiggling out, this is an exchange market. And the Direc Message I received directly contradicts their rules.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @tlg86 said: > > In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier. > > > > The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee. > > Hey there, > > Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over. > > We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs. > > > > > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > > > > > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward. > > > > > The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote > > Explain why local authority areas are relevant to this election. Isn't it run on a regional/national basis?
As they largely mirror parliamentary constituencies.
The count takes place in local authority areas who then submit their results to regional centres to elect the MEPs
> @Pulpstar said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @Stereotomy said: > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > Not the bloody rules as they were written > > > > > > > > > > > > > How so? > > > > > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party? > > > > June 7, there cannot be a leadership election if she is still in post, there is no vacancy and no no confidence vote to trigger one. If the bookies try and wiggle out they are just wrong > > It's not a case of the bookeis wiggling out, this is an exchange market. And the Direc Message I received directly contradicts their rules.
> @Scott_P said: > This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it. > > What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base. > > But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can. > > Ummm, that's the point. > > Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant. > > Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders. > > But they won't...
The Tories may as well just join the LDs if a Tory leader renounced Brexit as their would be little Tory Party left, the Brexit Party would have consumed the carcass
That's true in Cameron's case. As I recall, Osborne went for his chat with TMay that night with quite a few people expecting him to be appointed Foreign Secretary, which might have involved him at least a bit in the next stage.
> @TOPPING said: > Probably: > > https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1131869951839678464 > > > > I did mention I topped up on Gove pre-podium. > > And wow I clicked on bf and realise I am large green on July - Sep 2019 exit date for May!!! Check that out (god knows what I was thinking but hey).
> @isam said: > And we have turnout figures from Gibraltar... > > (The outlier to the left is Merthyr) > > > > > > > There is a complication, the difference between places that had locals at the same time in 2014 and those that didnt
That's true, but does it matter? If turnout is down in a Leave area because no local elections this time it will still have the same result (i.e. in theory fewer Leave votes).
Of course what we don't know is if the polls factored this in. They might have done so and none of this is unexpected.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @tlg86 said: > > In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier. > > > > The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee. > > Hey there, > > Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over. > > We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
Blimey! Thanks for the heads up. I've cashed out +£28. There are going to be a lot of unhappy punters if they stick to this line.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Scott_P said: > > This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it. > > > > What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base. > > > > But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can. > > > > Ummm, that's the point. > > > > Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant. > > > > Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders. > > > > But they won't... > > The Tories may as well just join the LDs if a Tory leader renounced Brexit as their would be little Tory Party left, the Brexit Party would have consumed the carcass
There is a distinction here: the Conservative members have headed to TBP, but Conservative voters have broken decisively for the Liberal Democrats.
Unless the Conservative Party can reconnect with its voter base, it really won't have much of a future. Boris might well be the final straw.
> @brokenwheel said: > And we have turnout figures from Gibraltar... > > (The outlier to the left is Merthyr) > > > > > > > Isn't Merthyr's turnout up ~2%
Yes it is (+1.9%). I was wondering what the big drop in turnout was. It isn't Merthyr.
> @HYUFD said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs. > > > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > > > > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward. > > > > The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote > > > > Explain why local authority areas are relevant to this election. Isn't it run on a regional/national basis? > > As they largely mirror parliamentary constituencies. > > The count takes place in local authority areas who then submit their results to regional centres to elect the MEPs ________________________________
We don't use FPTP in the EU elections, we use a dumbed-down version of PR which Blair decided to use after the EU complained to the UK that FPTP was unfair.
Since d'Hondt as designed by Blair could still give the B****t party 45% of the seats on 30% of the popular vote, they must be very grateful that we didn't get full PR.
> > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation.
> >
> > The betfair market is for party leader though
>
> It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
????? No it isn't.
Fuck it. I've decided the market is idiots and we are right. Have taken free money @ 3. Uttet madness. I thought that Hillary to win the popular vote market post election day in 2016 was mad, this is bonkers.
The rules are super, super clear. May to cease being leader of the Conservative party.
> @kamski said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > @TGOHF said: > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ? > > > > I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge > > I understood it to mean: > Voting in the EU election (in Cambridge)= Virtue Signalling > Voting in the EU election for Nigel Farage= Doing your Patriotic Duty to Send a Message to the Traitors > >
Ah yes, I think that is what he means. He seems to have forgotten that Brexit is an extension of the foreign policy objectives of Vladimir Putin, that figure who is definitely not an anti-democratic fascist, much admired by another man of bullying authoritarian tendencies, who shares his initials with the National Front.
> @Stereotomy said: > Just got this from messaging Betfair support (which I think is what Pulpstar did): > > "If Theresa May steps down on 7th June, the market will be settled, this is the information we have as of now, could be amended. " > >
Remember, Mrs May has form....... there will not be an election......
> In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier.
>
> The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee.
Hey there,
Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
> @Alistair said: > > @tlg86 said: > > > In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier. > > > > > > The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee. > > > > Hey there, > > > > Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over. > > > > We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out. > > Fuckers. Time to trade out my bet.
"At least May tried to deliver Brexit unlike Cameron and Osborne who ran off as soon as the referendum result came through"
That's true in Cameron's case. As I recall, Osborne went for his chat with TMay that night with quite a few people expecting him to be appointed Foreign Secretary, which might have involved him at least a bit in the next stage.
May's treatment of Osborne was the first indication of the manner in which she intended to deliver Brexit - by completely excluding those she didn't agree with or trust. Such an approach is always likely to be incompatible with assembling a majority.
Thanks for contacting us @BetfairCS and we hope that we’ve resolved your query for you. We strive to offer the best customer service in the industry and would appreciate your feedback so that we can continue to improve our service. Report this message sent from Betfair Help Delete this message sent from Betfair Help May 4 Pulpstar https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125589838 … If May resigns as party leader on 7th June this gets settled as June, right ? Delete this message sent from Pulpstar 29m Sent
Betfair Help Hey there,
Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out. Report this message sent 3 minutes ago from Betfair Help Delete this message sent 3 minutes ago from Betfair Help 25m 3 minutes ago Pulpstar Hi, that isn't how the market was written. Delete this message sent from Pulpstar 17m Sent
Betfair Help Can you kindly explain why you think so, please? Report this message sent 11 minutes ago from Betfair Help Delete this message sent 11 minutes ago from Betfair Help 12m 11 minutes ago Because the Tories can have no leader whilst the contest is on Delete this message sent 9 minutes ago from Pulpstar Leader of the Conservative Party In office 4 July 1995 – 19 June 1997 Delete this message sent 9 minutes ago from Pulpstar John Major Delete this message sent 9 minutes ago from Pulpstar He resigned that day Delete this message sent 9 minutes ago from Pulpstar He stayed PM through to 1997 Delete this message sent 9 minutes ago from Pulpstar When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party? Delete this message sent 8 minutes ago from Pulpstar That is the question asked Delete this message sent 8 minutes ago from Pulpstar Pulpstar If she resigns on 7th June, the market must settle as June Delete this message sent 8 minutes ago from Pulpstar 9m 8 minutes ago Sent
Major : In office 28 November 1990 – 22 June 1995 Delete this message sent 6 minutes ago from Pulpstar Note the gap ?
Delete this message sent 5 minutes ago from Pulpstar IF the market had been up in June 95 it should have been settled as June 95 under the market rules Delete this message sent 5 minutes ago from Pulpstar Noone was officially the Tory leader from 23 June 1995 to 3 July 1995 Delete this message sent 4 minutes ago from Pulpstar Now if May changes her mind Delete this message sent 4 minutes ago from Pulpstar I accept June 7th should not settle Delete this message sent 4 minutes ago from Pulpstar Pulpstar But if she resigns on 7th June the various markets must settle as June Delete this message sent 3 minutes ago from Pulpstar 4m 3 minutes ago Sent
Betfair Help She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed, various customers also believe this, hence why the market hasn't traded out. Again we truly don't know what May will do on the 7th June, we can only take what information we have and what has happened previously, hence why we don't want to add anything to our rules as long as we can that could then be incorrect. Report this message sent 3 minutes ago from Betfair Help Delete this message sent 3 minutes ago from Betfair Help 4m 3 minutes ago NO SHE WON'T BE THE LEADER Delete this message sent 2 minutes ago from Pulpstar Pulpstar I'd like my stakes voided on the market due to this horrific ambiguity Delete this message sent 2 minutes ago from Pulpstar 3m 2 minutes ago Sent
Betfair Help This is the information provided by the Exchange department directly, in such case we ask you to bear with us as such situation has never happened before, so this is still being looked into as the announcement was also only made a few hours ago. Report this message sent 2 minutes ago from Betfair Help Delete this message sent 2 minutes ago from Betfair Help 3m 2 minutes ago If the date was when a new leader took over that should have been in the rules Delete this message sent 1 minute ago from Pulpstar politics/market/1.125589838 Delete this message sent 1 minute ago from Pulpstar Pulpstar Username Pulpstar Delete this message sent 55 seconds ago from Pulpstar 1m 55 seconds ago Sent
Pulpstar You need to void the market, and learn the rules
> @Cicero said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it. > > > > > > What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base. > > > > > > But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can. > > > > > > Ummm, that's the point. > > > > > > Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant. > > > > > > Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders. > > > > > > But they won't... > > > > The Tories may as well just join the LDs if a Tory leader renounced Brexit as their would be little Tory Party left, the Brexit Party would have consumed the carcass > > There is a distinction here: the Conservative members have headed to TBP, but Conservative voters have broken decisively for the Liberal Democrats. > > Unless the Conservative Party can reconnect with its voter base, it really won't have much of a future. Boris might well be the final straw. > > Oh Good.
I am still a member, and have been a member, and at one stage an activist for over 20 years . Will soon resign said membership. Voted LibDem last night with other members of my family whom I believe did the same. Will never vote Conservative while any economy-busting "fuck-business" zealots are in charge. I know I am not alone.
> @rural_voter said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @_Anazina_ said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > > > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs. > > > > > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > > > > > > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward. > > > > > > The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote > > > > > > Explain why local authority areas are relevant to this election. Isn't it run on a regional/national basis? > > > > As they largely mirror parliamentary constituencies. > > > > The count takes place in local authority areas who then submit their results to regional centres to elect the MEPs > ________________________________ > > We don't use FPTP in the EU elections, we use a dumbed-down version of PR which Blair decided to use after the EU complained to the UK that FPTP was unfair. > > Since d'Hondt as designed by Blair could still give the B****t party 45% of the seats on 30% of the popular vote, they must be very grateful that we didn't get full PR.
We do at general elections though and they will be a guide on that
There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
Richard, read through the reply they have given me.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
"She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed"
I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example.
There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
> @Stereotomy said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Pulpstar > > You need to void the market, and learn the rules > > Don't be belligerent, it's not the support person's fault. > > Also, you make it sound rather unambiguous, so why would they void it? They should just settle it correctly.
The information in the direct message contradicts their own rules.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership. > > "She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed"
I think the leader of a party is a legal definition under PPERA and must appear for example on the electoral commission website. Supposing a leader had died in office - they would clearly no longer be leader.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership. > > She might be doing a John Major. > > Resigning the leadership and remaining PM.
Betfair have told me she'll be leader till the next one is in though
I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
"She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed"
It's an easy question to answer definitely, on the 8th June ask Brandon Lewis whether she is party leader or not. What Betfair believes is completely irrelevant, although they might be right that she will remain in place during the contest.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Stereotomy said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Pulpstar > > > You need to void the market, and learn the rules > > > > Don't be belligerent, it's not the support person's fault. > > > > Also, you make it sound rather unambiguous, so why would they void it? They should just settle it correctly. > > The information in the direct message contradicts their own rules.
If the person doesn't know the answer, they shouldn't give one. Betfair have got this horribly wrong.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > "She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed" > > It's an easy question to answer definitely, on the 8th June ask Brandon Lewis whether she is party leader or not. What Betfair believes is completely irrelevant, although they might be right that she will remain in place during the contest.
Not irrelevant if they're the ones deciding who gets the money!
> > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
>
> No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
> So just to be sure: it's possible for there to be a gap between when she resigns and when the next leader takes over? And if so the market will be settled for the date she resigns, not the one where the next leader takes over? Is that right?
> Ankita at 12:32, May 24:
Yes the date she resigns, again as I said, I wont be able to confirm anything as of now, request you to check back with us in a couple of days if you dont mind
There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
Wot she said:
So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen
> @justin124 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
> @justin124 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
I think that is very likely. A number have said they will. I hope they do.
> > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation.
> >
> > The betfair market is for party leader though
>
> It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
????? No it isn't.
Fuck it. I've decided the market is idiots and we are right. Have taken free money @ 3. Uttet madness. I thought that Hillary to win the popular vote market post election day in 2016 was mad, this is bonkers.
The rules are super, super clear. May to cease being leader of the Conservative party.
> @Sean_F said: > > @nico67 said: > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > > > > > > > > > My 50/1 bet on the LDs getting most seats is looking better all the time. > > Cambridge was 44% last time. Like St. Alban's, a rise, but not a very big one.
That’s not the main point . It’s the difference between Remain and Leave areas that’s important . A few Leave areas have done okay in terms of turnout but overall so far areas that voted Remain or less to leave have been better for turnout . It’s still very early with loads of areas still to report so it could change .
I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
> @KentRising said: > > @AndyJS said: > > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister. > > The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
Moreover she had little control over the length of the campaign because of the FTPA.
Having spent most of her premiership lying through her teeth, it would be somewhat appropriate if Theresa May has managed to tell one final fib as to when she'd actually be resigning as leader of the Tory Party.
> @justin124 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > Who will the interim party leader be ? > > > > > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly > > > > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process > > What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
I guess it would be reasonable of her to ask the leader of the largest party to form a government and submit it to a vote of confidence in the Commons. The fun would start if such a vote was lost, since the next step would either be a GE or the appointment of the leader of the next largest party, or perhaps both.
And anyway I guess the DUP's C&S agreement will need to be renegotiated by a new PM and they may be wary of a no dealer, since even they must have realised that no deal would be a disaster for NI and its position in the UK would come under threat.
That's ambiguous, though. The most obvious interpretation is that she resigns on the 7th June with immediate effect, but the statement is also compatible with her handing in her resignation on the day to take effect when the new leader is appointed.
Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Wot she said: > > So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen > > https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131497/Theresa-May-speech-transcript-theresa-may-resigns-steps-down-cry-prime-minister > > That's ambiguous, though. The most obvious interpretation is that she resigns on the 7th June with immediate effect, but the statement is also compatible with her handing in her resignation on the day to take effect when the new leader is appointed. > > Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous.
The issue with Betfair is that it appears that they answered the hypothetical question wrongly. That is, they seem to think that there has to be a leader of the Tory Party.
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
Comments
> > @isam said:
> > The T May leave date market is crazy, why is anyone talking about anything else???!!!
>
> The actual Betfair question is
>
> When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
>
> Which is more ambigious than you think when you start looking at it.
>
> Does resignation resulting in ceasing officially immediately or is it when the next leader is appointed.
No sign that there was an interim leader last time, so looks as though Theresa May continues in post, serving out her notice, until a new leader is elected.
That would make Q3 a winner, unless the membership ballot is dodged again by one of the final two candidates withdrawing.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
>
> I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge
I understood it to mean:
Voting in the EU election (in Cambridge)= Virtue Signalling
Voting in the EU election for Nigel Farage= Doing your Patriotic Duty to Send a Message to the Traitors
> Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
>
>
My 50/1 bet on the LDs getting most seats is looking better all the time.
> Not the bloody rules as they were written
>
How so?
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
>
> I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge
48% isn't great for a place that supposedly bleeds Liberal.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Not the bloody rules as they were written
> >
>
> How so?
When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
(The outlier to the left is Merthyr)
The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> > > >
> > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain.
> > > >
> > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
> > >
> > > Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament.
> >
> > He will try initially but the EU won't budge and Macron will veto further extension so No Deal hard Brexit v Revoke civil war it will likely be by October
>
> No idea where you have the Macron veto from, the EU are quite happy with the status quo, it is probably better for them than any of remain, deal or WA!
>
> He may well end up with trying to get no deal towards October, and undoubtedly will promise not to rule it out, but to become PM he will need a more nuanced position than an outright no dealer without any further negotiations.
Macron said yesterday he would veto further extension to prevent Brexit 'polluting the EU' any further.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/22/macron-wants-to-avoid-brexit-polluting-eu-after-31-october
Boris will try and renegotiate and remove the backstop, if not he will go to No Deal in October, probably with a snap general election to get a mandate for hard Brexit
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Not the bloody rules as they were written
> > >
> >
> > How so?
>
> When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
And isn't that what their response says? That she won't have ceased to be leader?
> In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier.
>
> The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee.
Hey there,
Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > @TGOHF said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
> >
> > I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge
>
> 48% isn't great for a place that supposedly bleeds Liberal.
I know it well, and it bleeds intelligence. 'nough said!
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Not the bloody rules as they were written
> > >
> >
> > How so?
>
> When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
June 7, there cannot be a leadership election if she is still in post, there is no vacancy and no no confidence vote to trigger one. If the bookies try and wiggle out they are just wrong
> I've had £100 at 3.8 that May ceases to be Tory leader on 7th June. That's when she resigns and triggers the leadership election - so that's when she ceases to occupy that role in my view.
<b> she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen</b>
> > @JosiasJessop said:
> > May might be flawed as a person, and she might not have been a very good PM - and she might have handled Brexit poorly. (*)
> >
> > But she's still far better than the winnets in the ERG who hope to replace her. That's the ultimate sadness in all of this.
> >
> > It's interesting to consider how May might have performed as PM if it had not been for Brexit: after all, Brexit aside, the country's not been doing too badly over the last two years.
> >
> > (*) Note: those are all conditionals.
>
> She is also far better than the utterly contemptible Corbyn, I would vote for the Devil to beat him now. He always put party politics above the national interest
That has always been true of the Tories and nothing better highlights that than its willingness to contemplate passing its leadership to such a malign human being as Boris Johnson.
The Brexit mess and all the pain and suffering that it has brought to this country comes from Cameron's blatant act of putting party interest first in early 2013 when he committed the Tories to holding a Referendum - all due to fear of losing votes to UKIP and letting in Ed Milliband.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459621
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @Stereotomy said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > Not the bloody rules as they were written
> > > >
> > >
> > > How so?
> >
> > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
>
> June 7, there cannot be a leadership election if she is still in post, there is no vacancy and no no confidence vote to trigger one. If the bookies try and wiggle out they are just wrong
It's not a case of the bookeis wiggling out, this is an exchange market. And the Direc Message I received directly contradicts their rules.
Their statement just talks about a "final choice of candidates"
> > @tlg86 said:
> > In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier.
> >
> > The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee.
>
> Hey there,
>
> Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
>
> We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
How did you communicate with them? Email?
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
>
> > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
>
> > >
>
> > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs.
>
> > >
>
> > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
>
> >
>
> > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
>
>
>
>
> The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote
>
> Explain why local authority areas are relevant to this election. Isn't it run on a regional/national basis?
As they largely mirror parliamentary constituencies.
The count takes place in local authority areas who then submit their results to regional centres to elect the MEPs
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @Stereotomy said:
> > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > Not the bloody rules as they were written
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > How so?
> > >
> > > When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
> >
> > June 7, there cannot be a leadership election if she is still in post, there is no vacancy and no no confidence vote to trigger one. If the bookies try and wiggle out they are just wrong
>
> It's not a case of the bookeis wiggling out, this is an exchange market. And the Direc Message I received directly contradicts their rules.
Yep. That's screwed me over completely.
> https://twitter.com/zeitgeistlondon/status/1131879957930663936
I do hate Boris, but that post is quite funny
> This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it.
>
> What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base.
>
> But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can.
>
> Ummm, that's the point.
>
> Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant.
>
> Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders.
>
> But they won't...
The Tories may as well just join the LDs if a Tory leader renounced Brexit as their would be little Tory Party left, the Brexit Party would have consumed the carcass
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> >
> > > Without "chopped up, in his freezer", George is enjoying this:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1131865769866858496
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Gloating George Osborne remaining classless to the end...
> >
> > https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1131868462635245568
>
> At least May tried to deliver Brexit unlike Cameron and Osborne who ran off as soon as the referendum result came through
That's true in Cameron's case. As I recall, Osborne went for his chat with TMay that night with quite a few people expecting him to be appointed Foreign Secretary, which might have involved him at least a bit in the next stage.
> Probably:
>
> https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1131869951839678464
>
>
>
> I did mention I topped up on Gove pre-podium.
>
> And wow I clicked on bf and realise I am large green on July - Sep 2019 exit date for May!!! Check that out (god knows what I was thinking but hey).
FWIW I think the tweet is correct.
https://twitter.com/JustinWelby/status/1131878326224785408?s=20
> And we have turnout figures from Gibraltar...
>
> (The outlier to the left is Merthyr)
>
>
>
>
>
>
> There is a complication, the difference between places that had locals at the same time in 2014 and those that didnt
That's true, but does it matter? If turnout is down in a Leave area because no local elections this time it will still have the same result (i.e. in theory fewer Leave votes).
Of course what we don't know is if the polls factored this in. They might have done so and none of this is unexpected.
Not as good as The Lizard People / Lizbians but probably the best we are going to get.
Owen Jones"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/24/theresa-may-worst-prime-minister-brexit-windrush
But Boris wont have to face Jezza until 2022 potentially.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier.
> >
> > The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee.
>
> Hey there,
>
> Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
>
> We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
Blimey! Thanks for the heads up. I've cashed out +£28. There are going to be a lot of unhappy punters if they stick to this line.
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1131865134463356929
> > @Scott_P said:
> > This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it.
> >
> > What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base.
> >
> > But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can.
> >
> > Ummm, that's the point.
> >
> > Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant.
> >
> > Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders.
> >
> > But they won't...
>
> The Tories may as well just join the LDs if a Tory leader renounced Brexit as their would be little Tory Party left, the Brexit Party would have consumed the carcass
There is a distinction here: the Conservative members have headed to TBP, but Conservative voters have broken decisively for the Liberal Democrats.
Unless the Conservative Party can reconnect with its voter base, it really won't have much of a future. Boris might well be the final straw.
Oh Good.
> And we have turnout figures from Gibraltar...
>
> (The outlier to the left is Merthyr)
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Isn't Merthyr's turnout up ~2%
Yes it is (+1.9%). I was wondering what the big drop in turnout was. It isn't Merthyr.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> >
> > > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> >
> > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs.
> >
> > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
> >
> > > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
> >
> > The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote
> >
> > Explain why local authority areas are relevant to this election. Isn't it run on a regional/national basis?
>
> As they largely mirror parliamentary constituencies.
>
> The count takes place in local authority areas who then submit their results to regional centres to elect the MEPs
________________________________
We don't use FPTP in the EU elections, we use a dumbed-down version of PR which Blair decided to use after the EU complained to the UK that FPTP was unfair.
Since d'Hondt as designed by Blair could still give the B****t party 45% of the seats on 30% of the popular vote, they must be very grateful that we didn't get full PR.
The rules are super, super clear. May to cease being leader of the Conservative party.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > @TGOHF said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
> >
> > I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge
>
> I understood it to mean:
> Voting in the EU election (in Cambridge)= Virtue Signalling
> Voting in the EU election for Nigel Farage= Doing your Patriotic Duty to Send a Message to the Traitors
>
>
Ah yes, I think that is what he means. He seems to have forgotten that Brexit is an extension of the foreign policy objectives of Vladimir Putin, that figure who is definitely not an anti-democratic fascist, much admired by another man of bullying authoritarian tendencies, who shares his initials with the National Front.
> Have 1922 said how many candidates go forward?
>
> Their statement just talks about a "final choice of candidates"
Good spot...
"If Theresa May steps down on 7th June, the market will be settled, this is the information we have as of now, could be amended. "
> Just got this from messaging Betfair support (which I think is what Pulpstar did):
>
> "If Theresa May steps down on 7th June, the market will be settled, this is the information we have as of now, could be amended. "
>
>
Remember, Mrs May has form....... there will not be an election......
> Have 1922 said how many candidates go forward?
>
> Their statement just talks about a "final choice of candidates"
The final choice to members is two.
> I am chatting to Betfair directly. I don't think Customer Service understands the rules fully.
For all of us Pulpstar, tell them to void it.
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
Westminster polls around the time of the Euro elections are pretty worthless IMO because they're affected by the Euro election voting intentions.
> > @tlg86 said:
>
> > In 2016, Hills didn't pay out on Cameron ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party until he ceased to be PM. That was probably a bit naughty of them as technically it happened two days earlier.
>
> >
>
> > The Betfair Exchange is obviously a different matter and I tend to think that May is going to stop being leader of the party on June 7 and unlike Cameron won't serve until a successor is confirmed by the 1922 Committee.
>
>
>
> Hey there,
>
>
>
> Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
>
>
>
> We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
>
> Fuckers. Time to trade out my bet.
They've just told Steroeonmy the opposite
> That'd be in her strong against homosexuality and the causes of homosexuality days. Entirely coincidental I'm sure.
>
> https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1131865134463356929
Tim Farron and Theresa May both stood in North West Durham at the 1992 election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_West_Durham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s
Such an approach is always likely to be incompatible with assembling a majority.
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
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May 4
Pulpstar
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125589838 … If May resigns as party leader on 7th June this gets settled as June, right ?
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29m
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Betfair Help
Hey there,
Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
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25m 3 minutes ago
Pulpstar
Hi, that isn't how the market was written.
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Betfair Help
Can you kindly explain why you think so, please?
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12m 11 minutes ago
Because the Tories can have no leader whilst the contest is on
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Leader of the Conservative Party
In office
4 July 1995 – 19 June 1997
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John Major
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He resigned that day
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He stayed PM through to 1997
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When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
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That is the question asked
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Pulpstar
If she resigns on 7th June, the market must settle as June
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9m 8 minutes ago
Sent
Major : In office
28 November 1990 – 22 June 1995
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Note the gap ?
IF the market had been up in June 95 it should have been settled as June 95 under the market rules
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Noone was officially the Tory leader from 23 June 1995 to 3 July 1995
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Now if May changes her mind
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I accept June 7th should not settle
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Pulpstar
But if she resigns on 7th June the various markets must settle as June
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4m 3 minutes ago
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Betfair Help
She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed, various customers also believe this, hence why the market hasn't traded out. Again we truly don't know what May will do on the 7th June, we can only take what information we have and what has happened previously, hence why we don't want to add anything to our rules as long as we can that could then be incorrect.
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4m 3 minutes ago
NO SHE WON'T BE THE LEADER
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Pulpstar
I'd like my stakes voided on the market due to this horrific ambiguity
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Betfair Help
This is the information provided by the Exchange department directly, in such case we ask you to bear with us as such situation has never happened before, so this is still being looked into as the announcement was also only made a few hours ago.
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3m 2 minutes ago
If the date was when a new leader took over that should have been in the rules
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politics/market/1.125589838
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Pulpstar
Username Pulpstar
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1m 55 seconds ago
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Pulpstar
You need to void the market, and learn the rules
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it.
> > >
> > > What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base.
> > >
> > > But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can.
> > >
> > > Ummm, that's the point.
> > >
> > > Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant.
> > >
> > > Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders.
> > >
> > > But they won't...
> >
> > The Tories may as well just join the LDs if a Tory leader renounced Brexit as their would be little Tory Party left, the Brexit Party would have consumed the carcass
>
> There is a distinction here: the Conservative members have headed to TBP, but Conservative voters have broken decisively for the Liberal Democrats.
>
> Unless the Conservative Party can reconnect with its voter base, it really won't have much of a future. Boris might well be the final straw.
>
> Oh Good.
I am still a member, and have been a member, and at one stage an activist for over 20 years . Will soon resign said membership. Voted LibDem last night with other members of my family whom I believe did the same. Will never vote Conservative while any economy-busting "fuck-business" zealots are in charge. I know I am not alone.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @_Anazina_ said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > >
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > >
> > > > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> > >
> > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs.
> > >
> > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
> > >
> > > > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
> > >
> > > The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote
> > >
> > > Explain why local authority areas are relevant to this election. Isn't it run on a regional/national basis?
> >
> > As they largely mirror parliamentary constituencies.
> >
> > The count takes place in local authority areas who then submit their results to regional centres to elect the MEPs
> ________________________________
>
> We don't use FPTP in the EU elections, we use a dumbed-down version of PR which Blair decided to use after the EU complained to the UK that FPTP was unfair.
>
> Since d'Hondt as designed by Blair could still give the B****t party 45% of the seats on 30% of the popular vote, they must be very grateful that we didn't get full PR.
We do at general elections though and they will be a guide on that
> There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
Richard, read through the reply they have given me.
> Pulpstar
> You need to void the market, and learn the rules
Don't be belligerent, it's not the support person's fault.
Also, you make it sound rather unambiguous, so why would they void it? They should just settle it correctly.
> There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
"She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed"
Resigning the leadership and remaining PM.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Pulpstar
> > You need to void the market, and learn the rules
>
> Don't be belligerent, it's not the support person's fault.
>
> Also, you make it sound rather unambiguous, so why would they void it? They should just settle it correctly.
The information in the direct message contradicts their own rules.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
>
> "She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed"
I think the leader of a party is a legal definition under PPERA and must appear for example on the electoral commission website. Supposing a leader had died in office - they would clearly no longer be leader.
> There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
>
> She might be doing a John Major.
>
> Resigning the leadership and remaining PM.
Betfair have told me she'll be leader till the next one is in though
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
>
> Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Pulpstar
> > > You need to void the market, and learn the rules
> >
> > Don't be belligerent, it's not the support person's fault.
> >
> > Also, you make it sound rather unambiguous, so why would they void it? They should just settle it correctly.
>
> The information in the direct message contradicts their own rules.
If the person doesn't know the answer, they shouldn't give one. Betfair have got this horribly wrong.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> >
> > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
>
> No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
Too unclear for me.
Massive 56p profit.
> "She's stepping down in making way for a new leader, but we believe she will technically still be the leader until a new one is confirmed"
>
> It's an easy question to answer definitely, on the 8th June ask Brandon Lewis whether she is party leader or not. What Betfair believes is completely irrelevant, although they might be right that she will remain in place during the contest.
Not irrelevant if they're the ones deciding who gets the money!
> So just to be sure: it's possible for there to be a gap between when she resigns and when the next leader takes over? And if so the market will be settled for the date she resigns, not the one where the next leader takes over? Is that right?
> Ankita at 12:32, May 24:
Yes the date she resigns, again as I said, I wont be able to confirm anything as of now, request you to check back with us in a couple of days if you dont mind
So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131497/Theresa-May-speech-transcript-theresa-may-resigns-steps-down-cry-prime-minister
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> > >
> > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
> >
> > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
>
> What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
PM is irrelevant for the bet.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> > >
> > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
> >
> > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
>
> What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
I think that is very likely. A number have said they will. I hope they do.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> My 50/1 bet on the LDs getting most seats is looking better all the time.
>
> Cambridge was 44% last time. Like St. Alban's, a rise, but not a very big one.
That’s not the main point . It’s the difference between Remain and Leave areas that’s important . A few Leave areas have done okay in terms of turnout but overall so far areas that voted Remain or less to leave have been better for turnout . It’s still very early with loads of areas still to report so it could change .
> > @AndyJS said:
> > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
>
> The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
Moreover she had little control over the length of the campaign because of the FTPA.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > Who will the interim party leader be ?
> > >
> > > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
> >
> > No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
>
> What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
I guess it would be reasonable of her to ask the leader of the largest party to form a government and submit it to a vote of confidence in the Commons. The fun would start if such a vote was lost, since the next step would either be a GE or the appointment of the leader of the next largest party, or perhaps both.
And anyway I guess the DUP's C&S agreement will need to be renegotiated by a new PM and they may be wary of a no dealer, since even they must have realised that no deal would be a disaster for NI and its position in the UK would come under threat.
Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous.
> https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1131876993119739904?s=20
What a twat. What a twattish post. People like him need taking down a peg.
> Wot she said:
>
> So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen
>
> https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131497/Theresa-May-speech-transcript-theresa-may-resigns-steps-down-cry-prime-minister
>
> That's ambiguous, though. The most obvious interpretation is that she resigns on the 7th June with immediate effect, but the statement is also compatible with her handing in her resignation on the day to take effect when the new leader is appointed.
>
> Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous.
The issue with Betfair is that it appears that they answered the hypothetical question wrongly. That is, they seem to think that there has to be a leader of the Tory Party.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> >
> > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
>
> I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
It does sound like it should be voided, frankly.