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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remembering the time Boris Johnson implied Tory defectors to Farage’s party are the kind of people who have sex with vacuum cleaners
If as anticipated the Brexit party wins the European elections well ahead of the Conservatives then I expect the discussion will move towards who will be best placed to win the support of the Brexit Party’s voters and many will say Boris Johnson but that will be a mistake, here’s why.
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I must be one of the few on here who has a green number next to his name.
>
> I don’t see much prospect of their re-entering active politics; politics is one area of life where there are rarely if ever second chances,
>
I agree that I can't see Cameron reentering elected politics (he could possibly be interested in something like a UN role or make the occasional speech in The Lords). With Osborne there might be an outside chance he returns to the Conservative front benches as he was pushed out early, but not if the Conservative Party continues it's swerve to the right.
I can think of a few cases where MPs have made a comeback into the House of Commons, but they remained as a back bencher. Tony Benn returned after having been voted out, and is the most clear cut cas I can think of. At a higher level both Winston Churchill and Harold Wilson had second chances as prime minister.
This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
> Does anyone have a prediction for the result tomorrow?
CDU/CSU 27%
Grün 18%
SPD 17%
AfD 12%
Die Linke 7%
FDP 6%
... or did you mean another result?
(Now having regrets about letting the membership lapse last year).
> Anyone but Boris, please. His own wife doesn’t trust him and his performance in Cabinet roles gives plenty of ammunition as to why he’s not suitable to lead.
> (Now having regrets about letting the membership lapse last year).
I doubt any of his mistresses did either
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7198455/all-of-boris-johnsons-women-a-rundown-of-the-affairs-flings-and-love-children-left-in-the-former-foreign-secretarys-wake/
And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970.
Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor.
Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM.
Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think).
So I'm not sure I accept your premise.
Boo to Boris.
F1: time to sleepily peruse the markets. Assuming they're actually up...
>
> This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
It used to be normal for leaders to stay on after losing general elections rather than resign the following day, so since the war, Churchill, Wilson and Heath lost elections as Leader of the Opposition and later won to become Prime Minister. Of those, Churchill and Wilson had both already been PM before losing elections and later regaining office.
That has always been my view. Now TSE's OP makes me wonder if Farage might give Boris cover on that score if he does attack him for not being racist enough.
On the referendum question, Farage himself called for a second referendum when he thought he was about to lose the first one. I am not sure there is too much ammunition there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sltIisHseA
I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48411735
Tempted, but won't give in, to offer 'don't watch the race' as my tip...
> On the referendum question, Farage himself called for a second referendum when he thought he was about to lose the first one. I am not sure there is too much ammunition there.
>
But plenty of hypocracy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/25/farage-brexit-party-remain
> This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
>
> Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War.
>
> And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970.
>
> Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor.
>
> Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM.
>
> Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think).
>
> So I'm not sure I accept your premise.
When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information.
The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times.
> This is all very reassuring.
>
>
>
> I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
I think it’s important to differentiate between BXP voters and those who attend Farage rallies. Quite a few of the people in that video are clearly on the spectrum. Some give the impression of having significant mental health issues. It’s interesting how many refer to social media.
> "German Jews warned not to wear kippas after rise in anti-Semitism"
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48411735
When you look at what is happening in Germany and what has happened in France where large numbers of Jews have been forced to leave Paris, it puts into perspective the hysterical claims that Labour somehow represents an existential threat to Jews in this country, though also serves as a warning about the slipperiness of this particular slope.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
> > @ydoethur said:
> > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
> >
> > Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War.
> >
> > And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970.
> >
> > Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor.
> >
> > Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM.
> >
> > Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think).
> >
> > So I'm not sure I accept your premise.
>
> When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information.
>
> The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times.
Heath was felt to be on a hiding to nothing against Wilson in 1966. As I recall it, life was good and improving. However, his fate in February 74 ought to have been a warning to May in 2017.
Betting PostF1: Backed Hulkenberg at 1.85 to get points. He starts 11th (same place as last year when he finished 8th).
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/05/monaco-pre-race-2019.html
No SC is 4.8, which I don’t think is worth it - the support races have featured a number of one-lap safety cars and no VSCs, suggesting that the new race director is much more cautious than Charlie used to be.
The organisers also quite Royally screwed up a red flag procedure in the F2 feature race on Friday, leaving 2/3 of the field a lap down by mistake.
> Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
The marital home is also up for sale.
https://www.tatler.com/article/boris-johnson-house-on-market-375-million
> > @JosiasJessop said:
> > "German Jews warned not to wear kippas after rise in anti-Semitism"
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48411735
>
> When you look at what is happening in Germany and what has happened in France where large numbers of Jews have been forced to leave Paris, it puts into perspective the hysterical claims that Labour somehow represents an existential threat to Jews in this country, though also serves as a warning about the slipperiness of this particular slope.
Don't minimise Labour's anti-Semitism.
Such hatred is wrapped up neatly and left simmering under a lid, until it finally erupts. Too many people in Labour are under that lid, adding heat as their hatred simmers away - as we see all too often on here.
Germany also has a longstanding and tragic problem with Islamaphobia as well. Mosques are being attacked with somewhat frightening regularity, and even 25 years ago you had the Solingen arson murders.
It's easily possible that we'll head the same way: and that's why people of good intent should be arguing against the anti-Semites within Labour, not excusing them. And the same with Islamaphobia when it occurs: in fact, all hatred against minorities and 'the other', wherever it's directed: homosexuals, the disabled, transgender people, women: even men in some cases.
They tend to be posh. In Guardian-speak, they have been seduced by 'populism'. Wiki defines it as 'a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.'
That is a bad thing? Only if you are a member of that established elite group, or think you are.
There are some amusing results of the referendum, and this is one of them..
> Mr. Jessop, that's an alarming headline.
It may be an alarming headline: it's a fucking frightening reality.
> So we've moved on from "it won't be Boris" to "it shouldn't be Boris."
>
> I must be one of the few on here who has a green number next to his name.
Hah Good point. Will it be the same if/when Biden or Sanders wins the Dem nomination ?
> This is all very reassuring.
>
>
>
> I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
Point taken, although the hustings for the Tory leadership campaign might want their beer held.
Enjoy that Kerguelen cabbage...
Be glad when we can move on from Monaco. Canada's next. A circuit that's fast and has overtaking. Gosh.
> Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
>
> That story having absolutely nothing to do with the fact that said ‘mistress’ dumped the deputy political editor of the MoS for Boris? Expect more anti-Boris stories from them every week for the next couple of months.
Background like that makes so much more sense of modern political coverage.
> Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
If only there were a way of linking Brexit and divorce...
> "German Jews warned not to wear kippas after rise in anti-Semitism"
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48411735
At least it's only social death here to be seen out with a Kipper.
Oh, you mean.....
> > @Dura_Ace said:
> > This is all very reassuring.
> >
> >
> >
> > I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
>
> I think it’s important to differentiate between BXP voters and those who attend Farage rallies. Quite a few of the people in that video are clearly on the spectrum. Some give the impression of having significant mental health issues. It’s interesting how many refer to social media.
I think that set against the many benefits of the online age which give ordinary people benefits and options which we would never have dreamed of 50 years ago, social media has undoubtedly turned up many stones to reveal parts of the human psyche which would have been better left hidden.
> Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
Her Bozzie Bear.
Should we open a bet on how long the relationship will last?
@Richard_Tyndall genuinely I'm interested to know what you think his thesis was. Like, I wasn't perfectly quoting him in the previous post but I feel I've hit it pretty close.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/proginfo/2014/13/border-country.html
"Rory Stewart believes the building of Hadrian’s Wall was the single most important event in Britain’s history"
"Romans divided Britain with a wall, splitting communities in two"
But he then goes to show a long and storied history of communities not being split in two by the wall.
I guess that puts Rory Stewart in the Qyburn role ?
> Since the referendum, I've heard a few people complain about democracy. usually along the lines of …. "Some people are too stupid to vote." The reason? They don't think the same way as the speaker on politics.
>
> They tend to be posh. In Guardian-speak, they have been seduced by 'populism'. Wiki defines it as 'a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.'
>
> That is a bad thing? Only if you are a member of that established elite group, or think you are.
>
> There are some amusing results of the referendum, and this is one of them..
>
>
>
>
Agreed and it ha been added to on here and elsewhere by a very unpleasant and quite vicious ageism. I prefer the old politics where win or lose you respect the result and move on seeking to persuade rather than belittle and demonise your opponent.
That was mostly dividing the conquered Celts from the truculent Picts.
> > @CD13 said:
> > Since the referendum, I've heard a few people complain about democracy. usually along the lines of …. "Some people are too stupid to vote." The reason? They don't think the same way as the speaker on politics.
> >
> > They tend to be posh. In Guardian-speak, they have been seduced by 'populism'. Wiki defines it as 'a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.'
> >
> > That is a bad thing? Only if you are a member of that established elite group, or think you are.
> >
> > There are some amusing results of the referendum, and this is one of them..
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> Agreed and it ha been added to on here and elsewhere by a very unpleasant and quite vicious ageism. I prefer the old politics where win or lose you respect the result and move on seeking to persuade rather than belittle and demonise your opponent.
________________
As long as people are honest about what respecting the result and moving on means, yes. That has been the problem so far.
> https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1132543109626257409
>
>
>
> I guess that puts Rory Stewart in the Qyburn role ?
I suspect he just looks and sounds too odd to win.
He is clearly playing it by his own rules, and I don't think he expects to win, but he does expect to win a bit of respect and a senior cabinet position.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @Dura_Ace said:
> > > This is all very reassuring.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
> >
> > I think it’s important to differentiate between BXP voters and those who attend Farage rallies. Quite a few of the people in that video are clearly on the spectrum. Some give the impression of having significant mental health issues. It’s interesting how many refer to social media.
>
> I think that set against the many benefits of the online age which give ordinary people benefits and options which we would never have dreamed of 50 years ago, social media has undoubtedly turned up many stones to reveal parts of the human psyche which would have been better left hidden.
Still doesn't extend to Amazon next-day deliveries to Kerguelen....
BTW, anybody else on here seen Kergeulen Petrel?
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @JosiasJessop said:
> > > "German Jews warned not to wear kippas after rise in anti-Semitism"
> > >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48411735
> >
> > When you look at what is happening in Germany and what has happened in France where large numbers of Jews have been forced to leave Paris, it puts into perspective the hysterical claims that Labour somehow represents an existential threat to Jews in this country, though also serves as a warning about the slipperiness of this particular slope.
>
> Don't minimise Labour's anti-Semitism.
>
> Such hatred is wrapped up neatly and left simmering under a lid, until it finally erupts. Too many people in Labour are under that lid, adding heat as their hatred simmers away - as we see all too often on here.
>
> Germany also has a longstanding and tragic problem with Islamaphobia as well. Mosques are being attacked with somewhat frightening regularity, and even 25 years ago you had the Solingen arson murders.
>
> It's easily possible that we'll head the same way: and that's why people of good intent should be arguing against the anti-Semites within Labour, not excusing them. And the same with Islamaphobia when it occurs: in fact, all hatred against minorities and 'the other', wherever it's directed: homosexuals, the disabled, transgender people, women: even men in some cases.
I don't think the problem of antisemitism or Anti-islam is worse in Germany than in Britain, they are about the same. Antisemitism in Germany is reported more because of the country's history. I am not claiming that anti-semitc or anti-islamic abuse is not a problem.
The level of abuse against people simply speaking the local language well but with a foreign* accent is a problem at the moment in England, but is insignificant in Germany.
(*for convenience by foreign accent I mean one not coming from UK, Ireland, USA, Aus, NZ, or any other Anglo-English country)
Also it ignores the Antonine wall's existence as well.
The reason being he collected the experts around him and listened to them. Then he made a value judgement. He also shagged anything with a pulse, but I forgive him that because of the Cuban missile crisis.
Trump fails the test in many ways. Would Boris? I know little about his spell of being Mayor of some small town in Surrey. Brown micromanaged things he knew little about, so he fails the test too. Corbyn? Shudder. Obama? I'm not sure what he did, so I can't judge. Ken? Too political.
Who of the contenders for the Tory party leadership and for PM is JFK material? Probably none, but I don't see anyone in the HoC who would fit either.
> Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
>
> That story having absolutely nothing to do with the fact that said ‘mistress’ dumped the deputy political editor of the MoS for Boris? Expect more anti-Boris stories from them every week for the next couple of months.
The opposite of 'it's not what you know, it's who you know' I suppose!
Obviously the Leaver wins in the Leaver vs Remainer scenario. Who those lat 2 would be I have no idea.
Being purely partisan, let them elect Esther. She will repel voters and give Labour a boost at the next GE.
On a gut feeling, please let it be anyone but Boris.
> Mr. Alistair, hmm.
>
> That was mostly dividing the conquered Celts from the truculent Picts.
Given that the inhabitants of the Strathclyde area spoke a Celtic language, it was more likely that this was about as far as they could get. IIRC the Antonine Wall was intended to serve the function you describe.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @JosiasJessop said:
> > > "German Jews warned not to wear kippas after rise in anti-Semitism"
> > >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48411735
> >
> > When you look at what is happening in Germany and what has happened in France where large numbers of Jews have been forced to leave Paris, it puts into perspective the hysterical claims that Labour somehow represents an existential threat to Jews in this country, though also serves as a warning about the slipperiness of this particular slope.
>
> Don't minimise Labour's anti-Semitism.
>
> Such hatred is wrapped up neatly and left simmering under a lid, until it finally erupts. Too many people in Labour are under that lid, adding heat as their hatred simmers away - as we see all too often on here.
>
> Germany also has a longstanding and tragic problem with Islamaphobia as well. Mosques are being attacked with somewhat frightening regularity, and even 25 years ago you had the Solingen arson murders.
>
> It's easily possible that we'll head the same way: and that's why people of good intent should be arguing against the anti-Semites within Labour, not excusing them. And the same with Islamaphobia when it occurs: in fact, all hatred against minorities and 'the other', wherever it's directed: homosexuals, the disabled, transgender people, women: even men in some cases.
Also: The Guardian headline "Jews in Germany warned of risks of wearing kippah cap in public" sounds like "Jews in Germany advised not to wear kippah in public" where as the actual quote in the article is "“I cannot advise Jews to wear the kippah everywhere all the time in Germany,” which although is not good, it is suggesting that the problems are localised.
There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
Now of course Steve Baker might be best placed to win back Brexit Party voters of any candidate as he has never voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and is committed to No Deal but he is more likely to turn off swing voters than Boris is. However Steve Baker remains a dark horse for the Tory leadership and could be the Tory Corbyn if the ERG MPs rally behind him (Mark Francois endorsed Baker on Newsnight on Friday) and he picks up membership support
> > @IanB2 said:
> >
> > I don’t see much prospect of their re-entering active politics; politics is one area of life where there are rarely if ever second chances,
> >
>
> I agree that I can't see Cameron reentering elected politics (he could possibly be interested in something like a UN role or make the occasional speech in The Lords). With Osborne there might be an outside chance he returns to the Conservative front benches as he was pushed out early, but not if the Conservative Party continues it's swerve to the right.
>
> I can think of a few cases where MPs have made a comeback into the House of Commons, but they remained as a back bencher. Tony Benn returned after having been voted out, and is the most clear cut cas I can think of. At a higher level both Winston Churchill and Harold Wilson had second chances as prime minister.
>
> This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
(I'm new to this thread, so it's probably already been answered, but what about Harold Wilson. Lost in 1970, was PM again a little while later.)
They hated Jesus because he told them the truth
+++++++++++
I think it was also because his bowling motion was suspect.
> I can see Boris being PM. I could see Trump being POTUS, but I'd suggest that JFK was one of the best Presidents.
>
> The reason being he collected the experts around him and listened to them. Then he made a value judgement. He also shagged anything with a pulse, but I forgive him that because of the Cuban missile crisis.
>
> Trump fails the test in many ways. Would Boris? I know little about his spell of being Mayor of some small town in Surrey. Brown micromanaged things he knew little about, so he fails the test too. Corbyn? Shudder. Obama? I'm not sure what he did, so I can't judge. Ken? Too political.
>
> Who of the contenders for the Tory party leadership and for PM is JFK material? Probably none, but I don't see anyone in the HoC who would fit either.
Of the contenders, Boris is the nearest to JFK.
That shouldn't be taken as an unalloyed compliment.
But from what I've heard from those inside his Mayorlaty, he genuinely managed to enthuse the team around him. Although bouncing a basketball throughout a lengthy meeting of Cabinet might become tiresome....
> I'm off the view that the Conservative MPs must surely engineer a Leaver vs Remainer last 2 otherwise you are going to end up in a "More Brexity Than Thou" death spiral which can only lead to Hard Brexit.
>
> Obviously the Leaver wins in the Leaver vs Remainer scenario. Who those lat 2 would be I have no idea.
It is outrageous and unacceptable that the Tory membership, infiltrated by UKIP and TBP, chose the next MP and therefore the future of this country for generations.
Leavers complain about how undemocratic it would be to ignore the referendum but Tory members choosing the PM is MUCH more undemocratic.
However, Tory members won't choose the next PM. MPs will. If the Tory membership goes for a no-dealer, the government will lose an immediate VONC with many Tory MPs voting against the members choice, - and they'll be told to think again.
In practice, I think the runner-up will immediately take on the role and will survive a VONC with Labour abstaining (unless Labour think the ERGers will vote against the government and trigger a GE which Labour will enthusiastically back).
> @edmundintokyo said:
> They hated Jesus because he told them the truth
>
> +++++++++++
>
> I think it was also because his bowling motion was suspect.
Surely that's Chuka?
> Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
>
> Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
>
> https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/
>
> Now of course Steve Baker might be best placed to win back Brexit Party voters of any candidate as he has never voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and is committed to No Deal but he is more likely to turn off swing voters than Boris is. However Steve Baker remains a dark horse for the Tory leadership and could be the Tory Corbyn if the ERG MPs rally behind him and he picks up membership support
Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> If I were to give advice to the Tory members, I'd suggest they pick the prettiest female. But that's my advice to all parties. No one seems to listen.
Seems to be working for ChangeUK?
Delightful.
> Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
>
> Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
>
> As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
> > @eristdoof said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > >
> > > I don’t see much prospect of their re-entering active politics; politics is one area of life where there are rarely if ever second chances,
> > >
> >
> > I agree that I can't see Cameron reentering elected politics (he could possibly be interested in something like a UN role or make the occasional speech in The Lords). With Osborne there might be an outside chance he returns to the Conservative front benches as he was pushed out early, but not if the Conservative Party continues it's swerve to the right.
> >
> > I can think of a few cases where MPs have made a comeback into the House of Commons, but they remained as a back bencher. Tony Benn returned after having been voted out, and is the most clear cut cas I can think of. At a higher level both Winston Churchill and Harold Wilson had second chances as prime minister.
> >
> > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
>
> (I'm new to this thread, so it's probably already been answered, but what about Harold Wilson. Lost in 1970, was PM again a little while later.)
Yes, Attlee lost in 1935 and won in 1945 and 1950. Churchill lost in 1945 and 1950 and won in 1951.
Heath lost in 1966 and won in 1970. Wilson as you say lost in 1970 but won in 1974
> I'm off the view that the Conservative MPs must surely engineer a Leaver vs Remainer last 2 otherwise you are going to end up in a "More Brexity Than Thou" death spiral which can only lead to Hard Brexit.
>
> Obviously the Leaver wins in the Leaver vs Remainer scenario. Who those lat 2 would be I have no idea.
This is why Rudd isn't standing - she knows that she'd get thumped if she made it onto the members' ballot, so why bother?
The run-off will be hard v pragmatic Brexiteers. Raab v Gove or McVey v Hunt or similar.
> > @eristdoof said:
> >
> > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
>
> It used to be normal for leaders to stay on after losing general elections rather than resign the following day, so since the war, Churchill, Wilson and Heath lost elections as Leader of the Opposition and later won to become Prime Minister. Of those, Churchill and Wilson had both already been PM before losing elections and later regaining office.
Was Foot the first opposition leader to resign immediately after defeat? The ritual resignation of the opposition leader didn't become the norm until 1992.
> This is all very reassuring.
>
>
>
> I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
>
> In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver.
>
> There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
>
> Owen Jones was very fair in that clip, and so too were the respondents for the most part.
Owen Jones came out of the clip well and I never thought I would say that. There might just be hope in politics but I am not getting carried away
> King Cole, I did say 'mostly' (and most of the Celts, by far, were to the south).
Bit difficult to identify folk as whatever in those times, to be fair. Depended on who was telling a Roman (generally) what. Which was then written down in Latin.
> FTPT > @Alistair said:
>
> > Rory Stewart presented a two part documentary series based on the concept that Britain is artificially divided into England and Scotland and only became this way due to Hadrian's wall. To prove this thesis he presents a history of all the kingdoms that spanned the wall and where in no way divided by its presence.
>
> >
>
> > He may be clever but he's also an idiot.
>
>
>
> If he had actually done that you would be right. But he didn't and you clearly didn't understand what he was saying in the documentary at all.
>
>
> @Richard_Tyndall genuinely I'm interested to know what you think his thesis was. Like, I wasn't perfectly quoting him in the previous post but I feel I've hit it pretty close.
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/proginfo/2014/13/border-country.html
>
> "Rory Stewart believes the building of Hadrian’s Wall was the single most important event in Britain’s history"
> "Romans divided Britain with a wall, splitting communities in two"
>
> But he then goes to show a long and storied history of communities not being split in two by the wall.
It is a truism that Hadrian's Wall, like a major river UNITES real communities and does not divide. Of course major rivers are then used as lines on maps to divide political communities. That is hardly great thought it is generally the first chapter in PPE course books at university. It is Rory who takes it from rivers to Hadrian's Wall.
The truth is Hadrian's Wall is irrelevant and was before it was completed. It sits in sparscely occupied land - the Debateable Lands. So, Rory in his Obama style is wrong on this in my view. ( If it were not irrelevant it would be the England Scotland border - it never was. )
> > @TOPPING said:
> > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> >
> > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> >
> > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
>
> No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
> > @TOPPING said:
> > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> >
> > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> >
> > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
>
> No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
I have noo doubt that a leaver will be in the ballot but I have every doubt it wil be a hard no deal brexiteer. I am looking forward to the grilling of all the candidates ahead but I will not vote for Boris or Rabb
The newspapers reviewers - Anushka Asthana, Tom Swarbrick and Camilla Tominey.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > This is all very reassuring.
> >
> >
> >
> > I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
> >
> > In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver.
> >
> > There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
> >
> > Owen Jones was very fair in that clip, and so too were the respondents for the most part.
>
> Owen Jones came out of the clip well and I never thought I would say that. There might just be hope in politics but I am not getting carried away
If a third of the country is voting for a party with literally a single policy then no, there is no hope.
> > @CD13 said:
> > If I were to give advice to the Tory members, I'd suggest they pick the prettiest female. But that's my advice to all parties. No one seems to listen.
>
> Seems to be working for ChangeUK?
Cruel....
"Surely that's Chuka?"
Nice one.
JFK was a good example, and listening to experts advising him on the Bay of Pigs was a big mistake he learned from. However, the political expert who told him …"I can just see it, Jack, driving in an open-top car through Dallas, with your beautiful wife by your side, What can go wrong?"