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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last “deal of no deal” looks to take centre stage in the CO
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last “deal of no deal” looks to take centre stage in the CON leadership contest
Jeremy Hunt comes out against no deal Brexit in tomorrow's Tgraph:
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> First like Michael Gove. We hope. At least today.
Seconded (Michael Gove)
The question is who'll carry the candle for No Deal for the Tories.
It won't be Boris.
> Gove and Hunt have put themselves up as serious contenders already.
>
> The question is who'll carry the candle for No Deal for the Tories.
>
> It won't be Boris.
Esther
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Gove and Hunt have put themselves up as serious contenders already.
> >
> > The question is who'll carry the candle for No Deal for the Tories.
> >
> > It won't be Boris.
>
> Esther
I think so too.
She rebutted Hunt within minutes on Twitter.
It's not so much been explored in depth as done to death! Half of the commentariat and most politicians have talked of little else for the last six months. I've no idea what new insights Hunt thinks he would bring to the party, but the idea his pronouncements will change a single mind, either on the Tory benches or in the electorate is for the birds.
> Question for you and other remainers, Ben:
> Why are people much less likely to vote in EU elections than in their national parliamentary elections, whether here in the UK or in other EU nations?
---------
Because they don't think the EU controls or influences their lives anything like as much as extreme Brexiteers claim it does.
Voters (probably rightly) think decisions made at an EU level impact their lives roughly as much as decisions made in local councils... hence the turnout figures are comparable.
The first is not in any doubt: no deal is a disaster in its own right, and would consign the Tories to oblivion for a decade at least. No serious candidate could support it. Even in short-term electoral terms it makes zero sense; you can't out-Farage Farage, and whatever you do you are going to be accused of betrayal by the ERG loons and the Brexit Party.
Even more stupid for a new leader than suggesting no deal is a realistic and desirable option is to tie yourself into the Oct 31st deadline: that really is setting yourself up for guaranteed and early failure, which is why Farage - who is no fool when it comes to wrecking things - has already honed in on that near-guaranteed 'betrayal'. There simply isn't time for a new leader to put in place either a new negotiated deal, or no-deal preparations, by October 31st. Unless the French don't agree, the deadline will be missed. And any PM who relies on the French to shaft us in order to meet an arbitrary date promise will be a very short-lived PM.
Less obvious at first sight is that this is also the way for a serious candidate to maximise his or her chances of winning the leadership contest. Why? Because how else do you differentiate yourself from Boris? As I put it on the previous thread, if party members want snake oil, why would they not buy it direct from the blonde snake-charmer?
This argument has to be won on its merits, and that means telling at least a modicum of truth. In any case, what is there to lose? Who wants to be a new party leader doomed to early and ignominious failure?
That may not be a fair reflection of its actual workability, but I don't think it speaks well of how well they sold it as a realistic option that it confused me so.
Pleasant night all. Just 2-3 months and with new leaders in Brexit messing about can start again in earnest - at present it is all just akin to pre-game banter to fill time before kick off, or rather gladitorial contest to the death.
Freedom for Britain!
#nodeal
>
> I think so too.
>
> She rebutted Hunt within minutes on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/esthermcvey1/status/1133114977018105858?s=21
> Looks like Esther!
>
> Freedom for Britain!
>
> #nodeal
She wants a clean break and nothing else will wash!
Not a bad slogan?
- Russell Crowe in "Gladiator".
> Claiming that the messiest and most chaotic of all possible Brexits is a 'clean' Brexit is wondrously 1984ish.
A bit like the terms ‘people’s vote’ and a ‘confirmatory vote on Brexit’!
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Claiming that the messiest and most chaotic of all possible Brexits is a 'clean' Brexit is wondrously 1984ish.
>
> A bit like the terms ‘people’s vote’ and a ‘confirmatory vote on Brexit’!
Yes, or Labour claiming that their position is 'clear'!
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > I think so too.
> >
> > She rebutted Hunt within minutes on Twitter.
>
> https://twitter.com/esthermcvey1/status/1133114977018105858?s=21
#Gammons4Esther
Only Hard Man can out swivel-eye Esther.
Night all. I'm off to dream about Filmore & Union brownies....
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Claiming that the messiest and most chaotic of all possible Brexits is a 'clean' Brexit is wondrously 1984ish.
>
> A bit like the terms ‘people’s vote’ and a ‘confirmatory vote on Brexit’!
"People's vote" is spin but "confirmatory vote" is just the standard technical description of what's being proposed.
> That's Hunt done for then...
I agree - it was a shit or bust play which will turn out shit and bust
> > @brendan16 said:
> > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > Claiming that the messiest and most chaotic of all possible Brexits is a 'clean' Brexit is wondrously 1984ish.
> >
> > A bit like the terms ‘people’s vote’ and a ‘confirmatory vote on Brexit’!
>
> "People's vote" is spin but "confirmatory vote" is just the standard technical description of what's being proposed.
If it looks like a second referendum on Brexit, it smells like a second referendum on Brexit then its a second referendum on Brexit. Just thought I should confirm that!
Just cos it polls better with a focus group doesn’t make it not so.
> https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1133035773123604488?s=21<;
+++++
I rather like Rory Stewart (even if his manifesto was ridiculous). He's an asset for the Tory party. Seems sincere, a full-on unionist, obviously clever.
However, one has to ask about his slightly untelegenic appearance. Why is he so gaunt? Is it merely an accident of genes, or is there some medical explanation?
Sorry if this seems macabre or prurient, but then Cyclefree was happily calling the candidates "ugly" this afternoon so I feel liberated.
https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/1133059724503592961
> https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1133035773123604488?s=21
How can he possibly think this is positive in the context of a Tory leadership contest (or much else come to that). He also claimed that being an ex diplomat was an advantage. What world is he living in?
> Claiming that the messiest and most chaotic of all possible Brexits is a 'clean' Brexit is wondrously 1984ish.
A clean break is a long established term not Newspeak.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > Gove and Hunt have put themselves up as serious contenders already.
>
> > >
>
> > > The question is who'll carry the candle for No Deal for the Tories.
>
> > >
>
> > > It won't be Boris.
>
> >
>
> > Esther
>
>
>
> I think so too.
>
>
>
> She rebutted Hunt within minutes on Twitter.
>
> McVile would be infinitely worse than the odious Johnson.
I had a few quid on McVey at 50-1 - seems very generous. Baker is only 25-1.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1133035773123604488?s=21
>
> How can he possibly think this is positive in the context of a Tory leadership contest (or much else come to that). He also claimed that being an ex diplomat was an advantage. What world is he living in?<
++++
He doesn't expect to win. He doesn't expect to come close. He's staking a claim to be the spokesman for an inclusive, centrist, global Toryism. And what is wrong with that?
It's great that a Tory candidate can speak in a (to us) fairly obscure language to BAME British voters.
How can anyone object to that?
Yay for Rory. Leave him alone. I just wish he would eat more.
> Looks like Esther!
>
> Freedom for Britain!
>
> #nodeal
#AveIt4Esther
> > @ReggieCide said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1133035773123604488?s=21
> >
> > How can he possibly think this is positive in the context of a Tory leadership contest (or much else come to that). He also claimed that being an ex diplomat was an advantage. What world is he living in?<
>
> ++++
>
> He doesn't expect to win. He doesn't expect to come close. He's staking a claim to be the spokesman for an inclusive, centrist, global Toryism. And what is wrong with that?
>
> It's great that a Tory candidate can speak in a (to us) fairly obscure language to BAME British voters.
>
> How can anyone object to that?
>
> Yay for Rory. Leave him alone. I just wish he would eat more.
He doesn't expect to win - he doesn't expect to come close? WTF is he doing in politics?
> Hunt. Blimey. At last, an adult in the room.
Or more likely a calculator in the room. Hunt actively played up the chances of a hard Brexit when it suited him.
Something tells me that suddenly the WA might just be amenable after all.
> > Yay for Rory. Leave him alone. I just wish he would eat more.
>
> He doesn't expect to win - he doesn't expect to come close? WTF is he doing in politics?<
+++++
Duhhh.
It's an established process. You make a mark in a leadership contest, maybe do surprisingly well, even tho you obviously and predictably lose.
The winner feels obliged to put you in the Cabinet, or at least make you a minister.
When it comes to the NEXT leadership contest, then you are a major and serious contender. Stewart is young. He is sowing the seeds.
Clearly you are not a student of British political history. To put it very politely.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > Gove and Hunt have put themselves up as serious contenders already.
>
> > >
>
> > > The question is who'll carry the candle for No Deal for the Tories.
>
> > >
>
> > > It won't be Boris.
>
> >
>
> > Esther
>
>
>
> I think so too.
>
>
>
> She rebutted Hunt within minutes on Twitter.
>
> McVile would be infinitely worse than the odious Johnson.
Her greatest crime it seems to some is being a scouser who votes Tory.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @ReggieCide said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1133035773123604488?s=21
> > >
> > > How can he possibly think this is positive in the context of a Tory leadership contest (or much else come to that). He also claimed that being an ex diplomat was an advantage. What world is he living in?<
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > He doesn't expect to win. He doesn't expect to come close. He's staking a claim to be the spokesman for an inclusive, centrist, global Toryism. And what is wrong with that?
> >
> > It's great that a Tory candidate can speak in a (to us) fairly obscure language to BAME British voters.
> >
> > How can anyone object to that?
> >
> > Yay for Rory. Leave him alone. I just wish he would eat more.
>
> He doesn't expect to win - he doesn't expect to come close? WTF is he doing in politics?
People should not bother to try unless they are going to win, or at least come close? If he thinks there is a gap in the Tory contest why not see how much support that gap has? It may well be small, but that is useful for everyone to know.
I reckon McVey versus Gove has a decent chance of being the final.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
>
> > Claiming that the messiest and most chaotic of all possible Brexits is a 'clean' Brexit is wondrously 1984ish.
>
>
>
> A clean break is a long established term not Newspeak.
>
> Yes, it normally means a clean break, not a nasty jagged mess.
The backstop is the nasty jagged mess. Thankfully its deader than a dodo.
I don't see any realistic alternatives being proposed other than new deal or no deal.
There is no way to leave with No Deal in October that does not bring down the government and cause a GE.
As Hunt as pointed out.
The UK is a hostage to a mad cult of Brexiteer unicorn hunting loons.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Hunt. Blimey. At last, an adult in the room.
>
> Or more likely a calculator in the room. Hunt actively played up the chances of a hard Brexit when it suited him.
>
> You say that as though it's a bad thing.
What I think of it is neither here nor there, really. He actively played it up before, and is now offering a sober moderating voice in the corner. The inconsistency is worth pointing out.
> Rory is grabbing attention. That's kinda the idea, no? After all, it got Boris pretty far, on less merit.
Boris has won London TWICE - not that I'm a great fan but that's a competitive record that no other living Tory can match. I suspect Rory's recognition factor with the great British public is WHO?
I mean, is that when they first entered Parliament?
> Rory is grabbing attention. That's kinda the idea, no? After all, it got Boris pretty far, on less merit.
But why Barking (zone 4) - too tight to buy a train ticket out to a Brexit party stronghold with a Tory MP like Thurrock or Basildon or Castle point? He was probably the only Tory voter in the entire town centre.
I could understand if he had gone out a bit to Dagenham - but Barking itself is probably now a remain voting area.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Claiming that the messiest and most chaotic of all possible Brexits is a 'clean' Brexit is wondrously 1984ish.
>
> A clean break is a long established term not Newspeak.
If people are going to criticise people's vote as a term, which is reasonable, using clean break can also be criticised for the same reasoning. Defending one and not the other, when bother are trying to present a partisan friendly approach, is a sure sign of the attacks on the other being nothing but political. It certainly has not been the most commonly used term for no deal until recently, which indicates an attempt to change the messaging.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > >
>
> > > I think so too.
>
> > >
>
> > > She rebutted Hunt within minutes on Twitter.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/esthermcvey1/status/1133114977018105858
>
>
>
>
>
> #Gammons4Esther
>
>
>
> Only Hard Man can out swivel-eye Esther.
>
>
>
> Night all. I'm off to dream about Filmore & Union brownies....
>
> This is turning (unsurprisingly) into a competition as to who can punt the biggest load of fantasy crap they can come up with.
>
> There is no way to leave with No Deal in October that does not bring down the government and cause a GE.
>
> As Hunt as pointed out.
>
> The UK is a hostage to a mad cult of Brexiteer unicorn hunting loons.
We might just see, sorry
Andrews (Fiana Fail) and Daly (Ind. Basically Socialist) are third and fourth.
But Dublin has 3 seats that become 4 after Brexit.
The 4th candidate elected will take seat only after Brexit
They are arguing with returning officer.
Daly wants Boylan (Sinn Fein)'s vote to be redistributed. Andrews argues against saying that once you are elected, you are elected.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133118409615581184
>
>
>
> Who?
>
> He used to run the police and then the economic portfolio in London while Boris was doing the photo ops.
>
> And as we know he is a man who knows how to deliver a compromise!
>
> All I remember about the Malthouse Compromise was that it seemed complicated, and gave the impression of having been sketched out desperately on the back of a beer mat by sides frantic to reach a middle ground no matter how stitched together and unworkable.
>
> That may not be a fair reflection of its actual workability, but I don't think it speaks well of how well they sold it as a realistic option that it confused me so.
>
> Pleasant night all. Just 2-3 months and with new leaders in Brexit messing about can start again in earnest - at present it is all just akin to pre-game banter to fill time before kick off, or rather gladitorial contest to the death.
I think the whole idea of a middle ground has now gone. There is no room for compromise anymore. Compromise is Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper explaining why you need to responsible with public spending while Corbyn runs away with the prize by promising everything for everyone.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Rory is grabbing attention. That's kinda the idea, no? After all, it got Boris pretty far, on less merit.
>
> But why Barking (zone 4) - too tight to buy a train ticket out to a Brexit party stronghold with a Tory MP like Thurrock or Basildon or Castle point? He was probably the only Tory voter in the entire town centre.
>
> I could understand if he had gone out a bit to Dagenham - but Barking itself is probably now a remain voting area.
He could have travelled to his sodding constituency! Which just lost control of the council a week ago.
> I cannot see a No No Dealer making the final cut. I think Boris is too Marmite.
>
> I reckon McVey versus Gove has a decent chance of being the final.
Is Gove a No Dealer now? Hard to keep up TBH.
Better a scrawny fit fellow than someone like Francois who looks as if he’s eaten all the pies in Parliament. And who is pug ugly with it.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
>
> > Rory is grabbing attention. That's kinda the idea, no? After all, it got Boris pretty far, on less merit.
>
> Boris has won London TWICE - not that I'm a great fan but that's a competitive record that no other living Tory can match. I suspect Rory's recognition factor with the great British public is WHO?
>
> Exactly. It's just gone up (a very small amount!), which is why we're discussing it.
I don't think PB equates to great British public. I suspect most if not all on here already knew who he is - our collective votes mean fuck all
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > Claiming that the messiest and most chaotic of all possible Brexits is a 'clean' Brexit is wondrously 1984ish.
> >
> > A clean break is a long established term not Newspeak.
>
> If people are going to criticise people's vote as a term, which is reasonable, using clean break can also be criticised for the same reasoning. Defending one and not the other, when bother are trying to present a partisan friendly approach, is a sure sign of the attacks on the other being nothing but political. It certainly has not been the most commonly used term for no deal until recently, which indicates an attempt to change the messaging.
Particularly when it's most common usage is for a dreadful injury, which is not a bad as at first feared.
> > @Byronic said:
> > I cannot see a No No Dealer making the final cut. I think Boris is too Marmite.
> >
> > I reckon McVey versus Gove has a decent chance of being the final.
>
> Is Gove a No Dealer now? Hard to keep up TBH.<
+++++
Gove, smartly, is playing his card close. Unlike Boris with his mad guarantee of an Oct 31st Brexit.
>
>
> https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/1133059724503592961
Yay. Politics as football. More of that shite please.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1133035773123604488
>
>
>
>
>
> +++++
>
>
>
> I rather like Rory Stewart (even if his manifesto was ridiculous). He's an asset for the Tory party. Seems sincere, a full-on unionist, obviously clever.
>
>
>
> However, one has to ask about his slightly untelegenic appearance. Why is he so gaunt? Is it merely an accident of genes, or is there some medical explanation?
>
>
>
> Sorry if this seems macabre or prurient, but then Cyclefree was happily calling the candidates "ugly" this afternoon so I feel liberated.
>
> I like Rory Stewart and have actually met him. He is not handsome at all. Though nicer in the flesh than on TV. There is something rather endearing about him. He is a very keen walker. I don’t think it’s medical; he’s just naturally scrawny.
>
> Better a scrawny fit fellow than someone like Francois who looks as if he’s eaten all the pies in Parliament. And who is pug ugly with it.
I think it's appropriate to describe Rory as a runner with reference to either the Tory leadership race or the 2.30 at Epsom
> Plus of course if we get to October and PM Hunt requests a further extension of Art 50 if a Deal has not been completed by then it is hard not to see how the Tories will not be obliterated by Farage's Brexit Party at the next general election if last night is anything to go by
For the sake of argument, say they had a further extension from October this year but somehow got Brexit done a year later, why would the defining issue in the 2022 GE be whether the Tories got Brexit done in October 2019 or October 2020???
on?
>
>
>
> Sorry if this seems macabre or prurient, but then Cyclefree was happily calling the candidates "ugly" this afternoon so I feel liberated.
>
> I like Rory Stewart and have actually met him. He is not handsome at all. Though nicer in the flesh than on TV. There is something rather endearing about him. He is a very keen walker. I don’t think it’s medical; he’s just naturally scrawny.
>
> Better a scrawny fit fellow than someone like Francois who looks as if he’s eaten all the pies in Parliament. And who is pug ugly with it<
+++++
Interesting, thanks.
I hope Stewart does well. Even if he cannot win (and he can't). He seems a benign force in the Tory party.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > I think so too.
> >
> > She rebutted Hunt within minutes on Twitter.
>
> https://twitter.com/esthermcvey1/status/1133114977018105858?s=21
Yes, Hunt will probably come first in the first round as Portillo did in 2001 and as the May diehards switch to him but after his comments tonight McVey, Raab, Baker, probably Javid will all move with their supporters to other candidates once they are out of the race and like Portillo then he could end up picking up few if any additional MPs
In the Dublin Euro constituency there is a dispute over the legal method under STV for working out who is third and who is fourth. The 3rd placed candidate automatically goes to Brussels - the fourth placed person has to wait until Brexit happens so may never become an MEP.
Fianna Fail and independents for change are fighting for 3rd and 4th place. The Fianna Fail candidate has exceeded the quota and the Sinn Fein (5th place) candidate has been eliminated.
But the independent is arguing the Sinn Fein candidate's lower preferences should be distributed to decide who is third or fourth - but the FF candidate and the returning officer disagree as he has been elected already as he has exceeded the quota and currently has more votes? I doubt this issue has arisen before - as you normally don't elect more candidates than you need.
Don't you just love STV!
https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0527/1051894-local-eu-elections/
> So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
>
> Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
>
If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> on?
> >
> >
> >
> > Sorry if this seems macabre or prurient, but then Cyclefree was happily calling the candidates "ugly" this afternoon so I feel liberated.
> >
> > I like Rory Stewart and have actually met him. He is not handsome at all. Though nicer in the flesh than on TV. There is something rather endearing about him. He is a very keen walker. I don’t think it’s medical; he’s just naturally scrawny.
> >
> > Better a scrawny fit fellow than someone like Francois who looks as if he’s eaten all the pies in Parliament. And who is pug ugly with it<
>
> +++++
>
> Interesting, thanks.
>
> I hope Stewart does well. Even if he cannot win (and he can't). He seems a benign force in the Tory party.
>
>
That's a minority of one.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> >
> > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> >
>
> If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in.
And if he doesn't make the membership vote because the MPs play silly buggers to exclude him, they will cause a large tranche of the membership to decamp to the Brexit Party.
> Plus of course if we get to October and PM Hunt requests a further extension of Art 50 if a Deal has not been completed by then it is hard not to see how the Tories will not be obliterated by Farage's Brexit Party at the next general election if last night is anything to go by
Last night probably isn't a lot to go by chime a general election.
I guarantee you the Lib Dems, Greens and Brexit Nigel Party won't hold on to their vote share.
Nor will ChUK now I think of it.
> So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
>
> Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
>
He is rapidly appearing to have the consistency of Boris, but absent any kind of charisma.
> > @ReggieCide said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > So Hunt has gone from backing Remain, to saying he would choose 'No Deal over No Brexit' 2 months ago to now coming out against No Deal again.
> > > https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/hunt-says-he-would-choose-no-deal-over-no-brexit-idUKKCN1S11RM
> > >
> > > Having lost Remainers with his last statement he will now have lost Leavers with his statement tonight, by trying to appease everyone he will end up pleasing nobody and will end up third like Portillo in 2001. I increasingly think it will be Gove v Boris or Raab in the final two.
> > >
> >
> > If Boris makes the membership vote, I suspect he's a shoo in.
>
> And if he doesn't make the membership vote because the MPs play silly buggers to exclude him, they will cause a large tranche of the membership to decamp to the Brexit Party.
How do you feel the difference between MPs "playing silly buggers" and MPs collectively deciding that other candidates are preferable in sufficient numbers to leave Johnson third or lower?
> > @Byronic said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > on?
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Sorry if this seems macabre or prurient, but then Cyclefree was happily calling the candidates "ugly" this afternoon so I feel liberated.
>
> > >
>
> > > I like Rory Stewart and have actually met him. He is not handsome at all. Though nicer in the flesh than on TV. There is something rather endearing about him. He is a very keen walker. I don’t think it’s medical; he’s just naturally scrawny.
>
> > >
>
> > > Better a scrawny fit fellow than someone like Francois who looks as if he’s eaten all the pies in Parliament. And who is pug ugly with it<
>
> >
>
> > +++++
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> >
>
> > Interesting, thanks.
>
> >
>
> > I hope Stewart does well. Even if he cannot win (and he can't). He seems a benign force in the Tory party.
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> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> That's a minority of one.
>
> Two.
!00% increase - that's a landslide isn't it? What are his odds now?
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> Given Hunt as far as we know would sell his grandmother to get the keys to No 10, we must assume his aberrant moment of common sense is calculated somehow to bring him perceived advantage. My guess is that he wants the consequences of No Deal to be discussed so Johnson doesn't airily go on about buccaneering no deals sit being challenged. Or possibly Hunt reckons MPs are (rightly) terrified of the thought of No Deal and they will put him forward to the blue rinsed mob because he will do less damage.
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>
> And you don't think the other candidates spend all day thinking this kind of minute tactical detail out?
+++++++++++
Fair point. I shouldn't call out Hunt because he's so obvious. Politicians need to be like swans. Gliding serenely above water while paddling furiously below it and out of sight.
> Given Hunt as far as we know would sell his grandmother to get the keys to No 10, we must assume his aberrant moment of common sense is calculated somehow to bring him perceived advantage. My guess is that he wants the consequences of No Deal to be discussed so Johnson doesn't airily go on about buccaneering no deals sit being challenged. Or possibly Hunt reckons MPs are (rightly) terrified of the thought of No Deal and they will put him forward to the blue rinsed mob because he will do less damage.
>
> And you don't think the other candidates spend all day thinking this kind of minute tactical detail out? <
++++
Well apparently Boris doesn't, otherwise he wouldn't have made that crazy, purposeless commitment to "leaving by Halloween", thus entirely boxing himself in - just as T May did.
He didn't have to do it. He could have said "we are leaving, no ifs and no buts", and left it at that. Instead he committed himself to a stance which is, many think, totally undeliverable just because of the parliamentary calendar, need for time to legislate etc etc
He thus painted a massive Farage-sized target on his back, for no reason whatsoever.
Until Boris did that, I thought he was potentially worth the risk. No longer.
What is the plan? They do have a plan, don’t they?